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Charlie Blackmon

Charlie Blackmon Rejoins Rockies

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Outfielder Charlie Blackmon arrived at Coors Field on Monday for Summer Camp, Nick Groke of The Athletic tweets. It’s an especially notable and encouraging development after Blackmon tested positive for the coronavirus three weeks ago.

Blackmon, a four-time All-Star, explained how he’s doing and expressed hope that he’ll be in Colorado’s lineup when its season starts July 24, saying (via Thomas Harding of MLB.com): “I feel great. I have felt that way for at least a couple of weeks now. I had a day and a half of symptoms. After that I started feeling much better. I want to be ready for Opening Day. That’s a pretty short period of time.”

Of course, if the Rockies are going to pull off a surprise playoff run in 2020, it stands to reason they’ll need a healthy Blackmon. The 34-year-old turned in yet another quality offensive season in 2019, in which he slashed .314/.364/.576 (125 wRC+) with 32 home runs in 634 plate appearances to further cement himself as one of the Rockies’ most important contributors.

Aside from Matt Kemp, a recent minor league signing, Blackmon is by far the most proven outfield-capable player the Rockies have. David Dahl, Raimel Tapia, Sam Hilliard, Garrett Hampson and Yonathan Daza are also on their 40-man roster, but only the injury-plagued Dahl has fared well offensively over a large sample of major league plate appearances.

Charlie Blackmon, 2 Other Rockies Test Positive For Coronavirus

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Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon, left-hander Phillip Diehl and righty Ryan Castellani have tested positive for the coronavirus after recently working out at Coors Field, Kyle Newman of the Denver Post reports. Only one of the three showed symptoms, though his identity is unknown.

Aside from Blackmon, Diehl and Castellani, the other players who have been working out at the stadium tested negative. As a result of the positive tests, which Newman writes “came late last week,” the facility has been closed for the week.

Even though Major League Baseball and the players reached an agreement on health and safety protocols Tuesday, paving the way for a 60-game regular season, this is another reminder of how challenging it will be for all involved to get through the campaign unscathed.

Blackmon, a four-time All-Star, is the highest-profile major leaguer to date who we know has tested positive for COVID-19. However, Colorado certainly isn’t the only team that has been affected by it. Just in the past few days, the virus has also impacted the Phillies, Yankees, Angels, Astros, Giants and Blue Jays, not to mention at least a few unnamed clubs.

Rockies Notes: Monfort, Murphy, Hilliard

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The Rockies lost 91 games in 2019, and they haven’t signed a single major league free agent, but Chairman and CEO Dick Monfort predicts a 94-win season in Colorado, per The Denver Post’s Kyle Newman. That would be a franchise high for the Rockies, who thrice have won 90 games but never exceeded 92. And of course, they have yet to capture their first NL West crown. Let’s stick with the Rockies…

  • Monfort cites the 2007 to 2009 Rockies as precedent for his projection, who sandwiched a pair of playoff teams around an 88-loss unit in 2008. The core of the Rox’ 91-win team from 2018 remains largely intact (for now) with Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Charlie Blackmon leading the offense, while Jon Gray, German Marquez and Kyle Freeland front the rotation. Of course, questions abound for that group, from performance to health to Arenado’s recent comments about the team. The Rockies were a top-10 unit by measure of runs scored even in 2019, so a turnaround isn’t impossible. Significant, wholesale improvements from the pitching staff would have to figure heavily in a turnaround after the staff ranked 29th in the majors with a 5.58 ERA in 2019.
  • Daniel Murphy will be a key player to watch in 2020, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Murphy seemed like a great fit for Coors Field heading into 2019, but an injury slowed the start of his season and the offensive numbers never really surfaced. Murphy doesn’t bring a plus glove at first base, so his contribution needs to come with the bat. A .279/.328/.452 line was his lowest mark across the board since 2015.
  • Of the young players, Sam Hilliard has a chance to break into the everyday lineup, per MLB.com’s Thomas Harding. The lefty masher put up a 1.006 OPS in 27 games last year, an impressive audition. He’s a candidate to take the strong end of a platoon with Ian Desmond in left. Hilliard will have to prove he can make enough contact to see his name on the lineup card daily, but with his combination of speed and power, the physical gifts are there.

Rockies Reportedly “Would Listen To Offers” For Charlie Blackmon

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With the Rockies’ fortunes sinking during a brutal stretch of play in the run-up to the trade deadline, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that the organization “would listen to offers” for star outfielder Charlie Blackmon. It’s not clear at this point whether any such discussions have occurred.

At first glance, it seems rather unlikely that a deal will end up coming to fruition. The Rockies have positioned themselves as a win-now franchise in recent years by hammering out monster extensions with Blackmon and Nolan Arenado, inking a less-costly but still-significant deal with starter German Marquez, and drawing several free-agents (chiefly, Ian Desmond and a procession of relievers) with contracts that depreciated like new luxury cars rolling off the lot. The Colorado payroll sat at a record $145MM this season and already has hefty money on the books (before arb raises and other additions) for the next few years: $120MM+ for 2020, $82.8MM for 2021, and over $60MM for the ensuing two seasons. Dealing Blackmon would significantly harm the near-term outlook in the midst of a contention window that the team has already largely committed to.

Then again, perhaps there’s a shot here at a bit of a mulligan. The somewhat extended financial position is of obvious concern given the top-heavy state of the roster. Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and David Dahl make up a nice group of position players to build around. Marquez and Jon Gray are a solid duo of young starters, with Scott Oberg and Carlos Estevez looking like quality, controllable relief arms this year. But that’s less than a third of the roster. Seven Rockies players have produced at least 1.0 fWAR this year (including Oberg but not Estevez); no other man on the roster has exceeded 0.5. Even as several of the free-agent acquisitions have gone south, the club has seen a few hiccups from promising young players trying to figure out the majors. And then there was the collapse of starter Kyle Freeland.

The picture has changed quite a bit since the Rockies acted decisively to keep Blackmon from testing free agency at the end of the 2018 season, and then did the same with Arenado after a Wild Card campaign. That’s true both of the team and of the veteran outfielder, who is owed $21MM this season as well as in 2020 and 2021. The deal includes a $21MM player option for the 2022 season and a floating-value player option for the final contemplated campaign. From a starting point of $10MM, that final option can move up to $18MM depending upon plate-appearance and MVP-voting results over the other seasons of the deal.

The Rox are in a bind through no fault of Blackmon, who has been the team’s best hitter. Through 381 plate appearances, he’s carrying a .319/.365/.602 batting line with 23 home runs. That translates to a strong 132 wRC+. Blackmon has been an excellent hitter for past four seasons and obviously has maintained his ability to square up the baseball. That said, he has outperformed the expectations of Statcast based upon his batted-ball data, with a .403 wOBA but only a .347 xwOBA, though that has also been true in each of the three prior campaigns. It’s also notable that Blackmon’s never-exceptional walk rate is down to 5.5%. That matter links up to another possible concern: Blackmon has posted yawning home/road splits this year. While the numbers are less dramatic over the full course of his career, no small part of Blackmon’s overall success has come from a whopping lifetime .378 BABIP at Coors Field.

While the hitting output and outlook remain mostly positive, the cracks are beginning to show in the other areas of Blackmon’s game. He was already moved out of center field after grading terribly there last year. The UZR and DRS grading systems remain pessimistic about his work in the corners in 2019, with Statcast’s outs-above-average and outfielder jump measures also taking a dim view of Blackmon’s glovework. Likewise, Blackmon is no longer a stolen-base threat or even a positive-value performer on the basepaths by measure of Fangraphs’ BsR grade. Statcast identifies a clear drop in his foot speed and percentile rank among MLB runners. These developments may not directly implicate his eye, bat speed, and reflexes at the plate, but they’re also of note from a hitting perspective because Blackmon is so heavily dependent upon reaching base via contact to maintain his on-base numbers.

So, should we add Blackmon to the top of the list of available trade deadline targets? There’s some reason to think the Rockies could make him available, though it’d be awfully tough to deal such a popular player and it would hardly solve the team’s payroll predicament in one fell swoop. Presumably, the club would want any acquiring team to take on most or all of the remaining money owed to Blackmon while also coughing up young talent. There’d surely be interest, but given the above-noted concerns, it’s also easy to imagine some trepidation from the market. Morosi speculatively considers the Rangers, Reds, and Cardinals as organizations that might conceivably target Blackmon, but it’s not hard to come up with reasons to believe each of those organizations would be hesitant to meet the Rockies’ presumptive asking price. Ditto other potential trade matches. The veteran outfielder also has 15-team no-trade protection, which could complicate matters. All things considered, it’s interesting to contemplate the possibilities but it still feels rather unlikely that Blackmon will end up on the move.

Rockies Activate Blackmon & Davis, Designate Chris Rusin For Assignment

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The Rockies have activated outfielder Charlie Blackmon and closer Wade Davis from the injured list, the club announced. Lefty Chris Rusin was designated for assignment to create one roster opening, with utilityman Garrett Hampson optioned for another.

The Colorado club will obviously be glad to welcome back two of its most-established veteran players. Neither required a lengthy absence, but any time away is more than the Rockies can afford. A recent run has the team three games over .500, but it’s still staring at a yawning ten-game chasm with the division-leading Dodgers on the other side.

Rusin only just returned to the majors after opening the year on the IL with back issues. He has not looked great. He was bombed in his first two outings, surrendering four earned runs on five hits while recording only three outs. And he’s already coming off of a messy 2018 effort in which he was torched for a 6.09 ERA.

Still, the peripherals suggested better last year. And Rusin was a strong performer in 2017, when he threw 85 innings of 2.65 ERA ball. Of course, he not only managed a typically strong 58.5% groundball rate that year but also produced a career-best 12.7% swinging-strike rate. He hasn’t come close before or since. Thus far in 2019, Rusin’s velocity is down and he hasn’t generated grounders (in the majors and during his rehab assignment).

The timing may feel a bit rushed at first glance, particularly for a player who is earning $1,687,500 (with one more year of arbitration control remaining). It makes more sense when you tabulate Rusin’s service time. He entered the season with 4.092 years on the ticker; with 71 more accrued to this point, he’s sitting just nine days shy of reaching five full years of service. At that point, he’d be able to reject an outright assignment without sacrificing the remainder of his salary. By making the move now, the Rockies can either shed the remaining obligation (if he’s claimed or rejects an assignment) or stash Rusin at Triple-A and try to work out the kinks.

Charlie Blackmon Likely To Return Friday

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The Rockies will activate outfielder Charlie Blackmon from the 10-day injured list Friday, Kyle Newman of the Denver Post suggests. Meanwhile, the Rockies lost left-handed reliever Mike Dunn to the 10-day IL on Thursday (retroactive to June 3) because of left AC joint inflammation and transferred fellow southpaw Harrison Musgrave to the 60-day IL, per a team announcement. Musgrave’s 40-man spot went to righty Peter Lambert, who shut down the Cubs in a 3-1 win in his major league debut.

Although Blackmon’s one of their most valuable players, the Rockies (32-29) ripped off 10 wins in 15 games as he sat out with a right calf strain. Colorado’s just half a game behind a wild-card spot thanks to that impressive run, and Blackmon’s return should help the team’s cause as it pushes for a third straight playoff berth. The 32-year-old Blackmon slashed .300/.356/.565 (126 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 219 plate appearances before landing on the shelf.

The IL placement for Dunn, 34, is the latest negative development in a long line of them since he joined the Rockies on an ill-fated contract going into the 2017 campaign. The injury’s all the more troubling given that Dunn missed most of last season with an AC joint issue that required surgery in September.

Now in the last season of his three-year, $19MM deal, Dunn has pitched to a 5.19 ERA/4.83 FIP in 17 1/3 innings. Overall as a Rockie, Dunn has thrown 84 2/3 frames and logged a 5.53 ERA/4.88 FIP with 8.82 K/9, 5.53 BB/9 and a 35 percent groundball rate.

Health Notes: Mets, Moreland, Phillies, Blackmon

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A few notable health updates from around the majors…

  • The Mets activated infielder/outfielder Jeff McNeil from the 10-day injured list Tuesday. Both McNeil (hamstring strain) and Robinson Cano (quad strain) went to the shelf May 23, though the latter’s return date remains “to be determined,” ESPN.com writes. Unlike Cano, who’s amid a tough first season with the Mets, McNeil has thrived in 2019. The contact-hitting 27-year-old has slashed .329/.412/.453 with 16 unintentional walks and 22 strikeouts in 194 plate appearances.
  • Red Sox first baseman Mitch Moreland could come off the IL as early as Friday, according to Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. The lefty-swinging Moreland was put on the list May 29 because of a lower back strain, temporarily halting a powerful start to the season for the 33-year-old. Moreland’s a .228/.320/.550 hitter (121 wRC+) with a Red Sox-best 13 home runs and a team high isolated power mark (.322) through 172 trips to the plate.
  • Phillies right-hander Zach Eflin is set for a quick return after landing on the IL on May 31. Eflin, who has been down with mid-back tightness, will start for Philadelphia on Friday, Matt Gelb of The Athletic tweets. Eflin posted an impressive 3.02 ERA and walked fewer than two per nine in 11 starts and 65 2/3 innings before his IL placement. At the same time, though, he struck out fewer than seven per nine and put up a mediocre 4.34 FIP.
  • Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon could begin a rehab assignment Wednesday, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com. Blackmon last played May 23 because of a right calf problem. Even though he’s one of their cornerstones, the Rockies have stormed to a 9-2 record without Blackmon.

NL West Notes: Posey, Blackmon, Davis, Padres

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Buster Posey left Saturday’s game after suffering a hamstring injury while running out a ground ball.  The Giants called up catcher Aramis Garcia for today’s game while Posey didn’t play, though manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including MLB.com’s Maria Guardado) that Posey’s sore hamstring isn’t thought to be too serious.  “It’s hard to go into a game with one catcher.  Could Buster go back there? Probably, but I think we’d put him at risk to make it worse…This makes sense right now for a day to see how Buster’s doing,” Bochy said.  “It gives us some time. After the day off in New York, we’ll see if he’s available to go.”  Posey is hitting just .253/.311/.387 through 168 plate appearances, and is on pace for the weakest hitting season of his ten full seasons in the big leagues.  The longtime Giants star has been swinging the bat a bit better since returning from a brief stint on the concussion IL earlier this month, so Posey and the team are obviously hoping his hamstring problem won’t again put him on the sidelines.

Here’s some more from around the NL West…

  • Charlie Blackmon is eligible to come off the IL on Tuesday, though Rockies manager Bud Black told reporters (including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post) that Blackmon will remain out of action longer than the 10-day minimum.  Blackmon took batting practice and shagged some fly balls on Sunday, though he might still need a rehab stint in the minors.  Blackmon was hitting .300/.356/.565 at the time of his injury, though the Rockies have surprisingly not missed his bat — Colorado has a 9-1 record in Blackmon’s absence.  “Now that they’ve got me out of there, we’re taking off,” the outfielder joked.
  • In other Rockies injury news, Black said closer Wade Davis could also pitch in a minor league rehab game or a simulated game before returning to the active roster.  Davis threw a bullpen session today, so the right-hander looks to on pace for a relatively quick recovery from a left oblique strain that IL’ed him on May 22.
  • Padres general manager A.J. Preller spoke to reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) today about how the front office will turn its focus to the deadline once the draft is passed.  With the Padres still in the wild card mix, this could mark the first time in Preller’s tenure that the club will be buyers rather than sellers in July, though Preller stressed that the team isn’t planning an all-in push.  “This year we can look at going a lot of different routes….But the most important thing we’ve talked about is it’s still going to be looking toward the long term and looking toward building for the next five years and nothing that will sacrifice that over the next five weeks or so,” the GM said.  San Diego has been linked to a wide array of starting pitchers over the last several months, though “there appears to be increasing pessimism the Padres will sign free agent Dallas Keuchel,” Acee writes, since the Padres have young starters for their rotation and the club would have to outbid several other teams for Keuchel’s services.

Rockies Place Charlie Blackmon On Injured List

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The Rockies have placed outfielder Charlie Blackmon on the 10-day injured list, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports. Blackmon hasn’t played since May 23 because of a right calf problem. His roster spot is going to outfielder Yonathan Daza, whom the team called up from Triple-A Albuquerque.

After back-to-back playoff seasons, the Rockies have limped to a 24-27 record this year, but Blackmon hasn’t been part of the problem. As usual, Blackmon has teamed with third baseman Nolan Arenado and shortstop Trevor Story to comprise the Rockies’ three best hitters. The 32-year-old Blackmon has slashed .300/.356/.565 (126 wRC+) with 10 home runs and the second-best ISO of his career (.265) through 219 plate appearances.

Blackmon aside, the Rockies’ outfield has gotten encouraging production from David Dahl and Raimel Tapia this year. And while Ian Desmond’s numbers leave something to be desired for the third straight season, he has been on fire of late. That trio will have to continue stepping up for however much time Blackmon misses.

Transaction Retrospection: The Charlie Blackmon Extension

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Throughout the Rockies’ franchise history, the team hasn’t been shy about extending key members of the roster.  Colorado’s biggest extension yet could be in the offing, as the Rockies continue to talk with All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado about a long-term deal that would keep Arenado away from free agency next winter.

If such a contract is worked out, it would easily be the most expensive deal in Rockies’ history, not to mention one of the pricier deals in Major League history.  It would also be the second major extension completed by Jeff Bridich in his time as Colorado’s general manager, coming on the heels of the club’s five-year extension with Charlie Blackmon last spring.  That deal is worth revisiting now, given what we’ve seen about the free agent outfield market (or, really, just the free agent market in general) after a second consecutive slow offseason of signing activity.

Blackmon was 31 at the time of the extension (he turned 32 last July 1), and, like Arenado is now, also a year away from reaching free agency.  Blackmon had posted solid numbers as a part-time player and then as a regular with Colorado in 2013-15, though he stood a big step forward to hit .327/.390/.578 with 66 homers over 1366 plate appearances in 2016-17.  That performance saw Blackmon earn a Silver Slugger Award in both seasons, as well as a fifth-place finish in NL MVP voting in 2017.

With the Rockies coming off a postseason appearance in 2017, the team moved to lock up a top performer, agreeing to an extension that guarantees Blackmon at least $94MM from 2019-23.  Blackmon earns $21MM in each of the next three seasons, and then has a player option for another $21MM season in 2022.  He then has another player option year for 2023 worth $10MM in guaranteed money, though another $8MM is available via escalators based plate-appearance thresholds that seem rather readily achievable, or on MVP finishes.  (The deal also technically adjusted Blackmon’s previously agreed-upon $14MM arbitration salary for 2018, turning $2MM of that figure into a signing bonus.)  All told, the extension could max out at $102MM in new money for Blackmon once all is said and done.

Even sticking to the guaranteed $94MM figure, however, Blackmon’s contract already looks like an outlier in the wake of how baseball’s free agent marketplace has evolved over the last two winters.  Manny Machado and Patrick Corbin are the only 2018-19 free agents who earned more than $94MM in guaranteed money this winter.  Bryce Harper will be the third name on this list once he eventually signs, and it’s doubtful that Dallas Keuchel will meet even MLBTR’s four-year/$82MM projected contract, let alone a $94MM deal.

Blackmon’s production also took a bit of a step back in 2018, as he hit .291/.358/.502 with 29 homers over 696 plate appearances.  Still strong numbers, to be sure, though more in the vein of a solidly above-average hitter (116 wRC+, 115 OPS+) than his more elite production (137 wRC+, 136 OPS+) in 2016-17.  On the defensive side, Blackmon had been a below-average but playable center fielder throughout his career, though his glovework fell off (-28 Defensive Runs Saved, -12.6 UZR.150) to such an extent in 2018 that the Rockies will now deploy him as a right fielder this season.

Had Blackmon been a free agent this winter, his most natural comp was another center fielder, A.J. Pollock.  The newly-signed member of the Dodgers outfield lacks Blackmon’s durability and longer track record of production, but Pollock is also 17 months younger, a more stable defender, and more of a sure thing to produce in a new ballpark (Blackmon has a career .970 OPS at Coors Field, and only a .745 OPS on the road).  Pollock landed a five-year deal from the Dodgers worth $60MM in guaranteed money, so even if some teams felt that Blackmon was the better free agent bet, the gap between the two players surely wouldn’t have been $34MM.

With all this in mind, it’s fair to say that Blackmon and his representatives at ACES did a good job in landing that extension last spring.  As a soon-to-be 33-year-old headed for corner outfield duty, as hard to imagine Blackmon would’ve found five years and $94MM in free agency if he had tested the market this winter.

A win for Blackmon, however, doesn’t at all mean that the deal was a “loss” for the Rockies.  As noted, Blackmon was still a very productive hitter in 2019 — drastic home/road splits aren’t as big an issue when you’re the team that plays at Coors Field, naturally.  Blackmon also wouldn’t be the first player to improve at the plate after shifting to a less-demanding defensive position, so getting out of center field could help Blackmon’s bat as well as simply drastically elevating his defensive value.

Could Colorado have re-signed Blackmon to a lesser deal as a free agent had they not extended him a year early?  Potentially, though such a “what-if” scenario is easy to create with 20/20 hindsight (plus, you never know if another team might’ve been particularly keen on signing Blackmon).  As it worked out, the Rockies were able to retain a player they liked both on the field and in the clubhouse, even if it may have been a bit of an overpay.

Let’s also not overlook the big-picture ripple effect of the Blackmon extension as it relates to Arenado.  The third baseman now has solid proof that a Bridich-led front office is willing to pay to keep a homegrown star in the fold, and retain members of what has been a winning core group that has reached consecutive postseasons.  Money-wise, Blackmon’s long-term contract presents no real obstacle to the Rockies being able to afford Arenado, given that negotiations are already taking place and the organization is cognizant of the $200MM+ it will surely take to keep Arenado in the fold.  From a return-on-investment standpoint, Blackmon’s contract also looks like much less of a problem for the Rockies’ payroll than the lack of production they’ve received from recent free agent signings like Ian Desmond, Jake McGee, or Bryan Shaw.

It will also be interesting to see how Blackmon’s extension stands in the wider scope of future extensions for star players a season away from free agency.  We’ve already seen some notable extensions this spring, though those deals went to players (Aaron Nola, Luis Severino, Jorge Polanco, etc.) who were still arbitration-controlled for several seasons, rather than pending members of the 2019-20 free agent class.  For some of those scheduled free agents who are already in their 30’s, the thought of an extended stint in free agency and/or a lesser contract than expected have surely crossed these players’ minds in the wake of the last two offseasons.

Blackmon’s contract may represent a best-case scenario for such players if they do pursue extensions, as Blackmon and his camp were able to score at what may be the peak of the outfielder’s value and earning potential.  Of course, it takes two to tango, and it remains to be seen if teams besides the Rockies are willing to pay a premium in an extension for a player who isn’t either a true elite veteran (like a Nolan Arenado) or a younger, arbitration-controlled star who could prove to be a bargain if locked up early.  As a team wanting to both win now and to send an early signal to Arenado that they wanted to win the future, however, the Rockies felt Blackmon’s extension was clearly worth the plunge.

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