Rosenthal On Leake, Orioles, Cubs, Inciarte
Pitcher Mike Leake is willing to take significantly less to play at home in Arizona, according to sources who spoke with Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. However, D’Backs COO Tony La Russa says it’s “probably unlikely” that the team will sign him.
“It’s gone back and forth,” La Russa said. “Getting Shelby (Miller) gives us a (full) rotation. I think it’s difficult because when somebody wants to pitch for you and you really like the person, you want to try and work it out. But it’s complicated and probably unlikely.”
Here’s more from Rosenthal’s column:
- If Chris Davis goes elsewhere, the Orioles will look to bring in a left-handed bat. Rosenthal hears that Pedro Alvarez, Gerardo Parra and Will Venable are a few of the hitters that interest Baltimore brass. The Orioles are also likely to explore the free agent market for a starting pitcher.
- Many have been critical of the Orioles‘ farm system depth, but GM Dan Duquette has rejected the notion that they are thin. Duquette could put his money where his mouth is by trading for one of the Rockies‘ outfielders, Rosenthal writes, but they would likely ask for Colorado native Kevin Gausman in return.
- The Cubs are “one of a number teams” that inquired on Ender Inciarte after he went from the D’Backs to the Braves. Still, they’re more likely to go after a starting pitcher by offering up Jorge Soler or Javier Baez. Inciarte has five years of club control and can be a strong defensive center fielder, although he also has extensive experience at both corner positions. The 25-year-old was largely unheralded as a prospect but has batted a combined .292/.329/.386 in his first two Major League seasons, including a stellar .303/.338/.408 line in 2015.
- The Padres, Indians, and Rays could all still move a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, Rosenthal writes, and the Rays might be the most likely of the three. Tampa Bay has three starters who could be solid No. 2 guys in a rotation: righty Jake Odorizzi and lefties Drew Smyly and Matt Moore. Alex Cobb could also be conceivably moved, but he is affordable and under club control for the next two years.
Minor MLB Transactions 12-12-15
Here are the day’s minor transactions:
- The Tigers signed 17 minor leaguers, reports Anthony Fenech and James Jahnke of the Detroit Free Press. Among the most notable names are left-handed pitcher Drake Britton and right-handed pitchers Rafael Dolis, Lendy Castillo, and Preston Guilmet. The club also inked infielder Tommy Field. Britton, a former top Red Sox prospect, has pitched well in limited major league action. However, he scuffled with the Cubs Triple-A affiliate last season, posting a 5.08 ERA in 83 innings. Guilmet has strong minor league peripherals, but he’s struggled through 23 major league innings with a 8.22 ERA (4.28 xFIP).
- The Tigers also inked right-handed pitcher Jake Brigham. However, his situation is unique in that he’s also pursuing a contract with NPB’s Rakuten Eagles. Brigham, soon-to-turn-28, has posted decent numbers as a minor league swingman. The Braves gave him a brief major league audition last season in which he threw 16 innings with a 8.64 ERA.
- The Braves have signed former Reds starter David Holmberg, reports Baseball America’s Matt Eddy. Holmberg, 24, has thrown 62 major league innings over 12 starts and two relief appearances. He has a 6.24 ERA with 4.79 K/9 and 5.08 BB/9. Atlanta also acquired reliever Ethan Martin. The former Phillies swingman flashed decent stuff with command problems in the majors, leading to a 5.93 ERA, 10.43 K/9, and 5.93 BB/9 in 44 innings.
- The Orioles have signed lefty Jeff Beliveau. The southpaw missed most of 2015 with a labrum injury. He’s experienced success as a situational reliever, including a 2.63 ERA with 10.50 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9 in 2014 (24 innings, 30 appearances).
- The Marlins have added righty Dustin McGowan. The once successful 33-year-old pitched poorly for the Phillies while struggling with control in 2015. He was only marginally better at Triple-A. If McGowan recovers his form, he could be a valuable reliever. He has a career 4.68 ERA with 7.35 K/9 and 3.90 BB/9 in 505 innings.
- The Mets have inked former Brewers closer Jim Henderson. Injuries caused the 33-year-old to lose his ninth inning role in 2014, and he’s failed to reestablish himself since then. Last season in 29 innings for Milwaukee’s Triple-A affiliate, Henderson posted a 4.55 ERA with 7.58 K/9 and 5.16 BB/9.
- The Padres have signed Philip Humber to a minor league deal. Humber pitched the 2015 for the KBO’s KIA Tigers in 2015. He posted a 6.75 ERA in the offensively charged league. Humber is perhaps best remembered for his unlikely perfect game for the White Sox in April of 2012. He was also part of the haul that brought Johan Santana to the Mets.
Reported Runner-Up Offers For Heyward And Greinke
The most important numbers involved in any free agent scenario are, obviously, the final deal terms. But the offers made by other clubs are not only interesting but also potentially tell us something about the market — both at the time of the signing and even moving forward.
We heard plenty of discussion today about how much cash was dangled in front of two of this year’s three biggest free agent pieces: Jason Heyward and Zack Greinke. Heyward reportedly agreed with the Cubs for eight years and $184MM, with a contract provision allowing him two separate opportunities to opt out of the deal and re-enter the market. Meanwhile, after exercising just such a clause to jump back into the free agent waters, Greinke inked a mind-blowing six-year, $206.5MM deal with the Diamondbacks (which included some very significant deferrals).
Before entering those arrangements, both players considered multiple other arrangements. For Heyward, the elusive $200MM barrier was reportedly met or exceeded by both the Nationals and the Cardinals. (Per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch — here and here — and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, on Twitter.) And at least one other team, possibly the Angels, also beat Chicago’s total guarantee with its bid. (That’s per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, Twitter links; see here for the Halos’ late interest.)
Notably, though, we’ve not been told how many years Washington and St. Louis covered in their offers, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that it seems neither met the $23MM AAV that Heyward will reportedly receive. And as Keith Law of ESPN.com stresses on Twitter, it’s even more important to bear in mind that the opt-out opportunities carry significant value and that Heyward will owe less in state taxes in Illinois than he would have in the other locales.
While acknowledging the opt-out value, Passan notes that it’s nevertheless “uncommon” for a player to turn down a greater overall guarantee, and that’s largely true in the abstract. But it’s important to remember, too, that Heyward’s unique market placement — he hasn’t even reached the halfway point between 26 and 27 years of age — makes his situation quite a bit different from that of most free agents.
For one thing, Heyward’s age arguably increases the worth of those bail-out clauses even further, since he’ll gain the right to re-enter the market in advance of his age-29 season. That’s still early for a free agent, and might give Heyward a chance not only to step up his AAV (if his performance increases and/or salary inflation continues) but also to tack on more years down the line. Greinke pulled exactly that trick despite turning 32 before signing his new deal, and the upside for Heyward is even greater.
Also, gaining two opt-out points will allow Heyward to assess his market timing while keeping the future guarantee in his back pocket. That not only adds to the value going to him in this deal but also increases the uncertainty and risk for the Cubs.
It’s worth noting, too, that even if Heyward does play out the full eight years in Chicago, he’ll stand to hit the market again before he turns 35. That’s exactly the point in his career that Ben Zobrist finds himself as he joins the Cubs on a four-year, $56MM contract. There’s good reason to believe that Heyward will be plenty capable of continuing to earn money on the open market at the end of his deal, which makes it much easier (and arguably wise) to forego another year (or two) of commitment for a relatively marginal bump in the overall guarantee — all at the cost of annual earning power.
Simply put, without knowing whether the other bidders were willing to include similar opt-out terms, and without knowing the length of their proposals, it’s impossible to compare the offers. From my perspective, though, the deal that Heyward ultimately agreed to is a better contract for him than the straight ten-year, $200MM deal that we at MLBTR thought Heyward could command (see here and here).
As for Greinke, the veteran righty said today in his introductory press conference that he was literally minutes away from signing with some unknown other club before Arizona swept in. ESPN’s Molly Knight tweeted that the Giants were actually the runners up, making Greinke a six-year, $195MM offer.
But San Francisco’s president of baseball operations Brian Sabean has said publicly that the club was not comfortable promising Greinke a sixth year. And both Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area (Twitter link) and John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (also on Twitter) strongly disputed the notion that the Giants had come anywhere near the D-Backs’ offer.
The Dodgers, too, are said to have balked at going to six years on Greinke, as MLB.com’s Mark Saxon was among those to note recently (Twitter link). It remains unclear how high the Los Angeles offer was, and whether it or another team was the one that nearly struck a deal with Greinke.
Looking at all of those reported offers, it seems clear that there are several clubs that have the capacity and willingness to spend much more money this winter than they have so far. That’s not to say that all will actually put that cash right back into free agency. But the potential is there, and it’s also notable that an unexpected team (the Diamondbacks) put so much cash onto the market.
All said, there’s plenty left to be spent. And that makes sense: more than half of MLBTR’s top fifty free agents — including six of the top ten — remain unsigned at present.
Outfield Notes: Royals, Rockies, Ozuna, Ruggiano, Nava
We’ve been waiting for the outfield market to kick into high gear, and it seems set to do just that with Jason Heyward reportedly going off the board to the Cubs. As ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick writes, the action is now on Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Alex Gordon. But a solid group of other players — including Dexter Fowler, Denard Span, Gerardo Parra, and Austin Jackson — is also still available. And t
Here’s the latest:
- The Royals have had contact with the Rockies on their three potentially-available outfielders, per Crasnick. It seems that Carlos Gonzalez carries by far the highest asking price, per Crasnick’s report, but the other two Colorado outfielders reportedly on the block — Charlie Blackmon and Corey Dickerson — are cheaper and have greater control rights. In particular, Dickerson has put up some huge offensive numbers and won’t even hit arbitration until next year. While he missed time last year with plantar fasciitis and fractured ribs, he still looks to be a highly intriguing asset.
- Kansas City still is looking at Gordon as its first option, though, Crasnick adds. The club would probably turn to the next tier of free agency if it can’t pull off a Gordon re-signing or a trade. MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan notes on Twitter that the team has “cast a wide net” in its search for outfield help.
- It seems less and less likely that the Marlins will end up dealing center fielder Marcell Ozuna this winter, as Crasnick tweets that the club has “aimed high” in its negotiations on the youngster. Miami has sought quality, young MLB pitchers — he mentions Yordano Ventura, Taijuan Walker, and Danny Salazar — and it’s not clear whether it will be amenable to settling for less.
- The Rangers have interest in free agent outfielder Justin Ruggiano as a right-handed depth piece, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Ruggiano is a very tough out for opposing southpaws, creating a potential fit with the heavily left-handed Texas lineup.
- Outfielder/first baseman Daniel Nava appears close to striking a deal with a team other than the Rays, despite Tampa Bay’s interest, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Nava, soon to turn 33, had a tough season last year, but at his best is a high-OBP switch-hitter.
Cubs Exploring Trades For Rotation Upgrades
The addition of Jason Heyward has solidified the Cubs’ lineup top-to-bottom, more or less, and with his acquisition nearly complete, the Cubs are turning their focus to the trade market for starting pitchers, tweets Jon Morosi of FOX Sports. Morosi notes that the Cubs have had talks with the Padres about Tyson Ross and the Indians about both Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco.
The Cubs have plenty of prospect depth to dangle in trades, and the names of Jorge Soler and Javier Baez figure to be featured prominently in rumors as the team explores its options. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets, though, that the idea behind the Heyward signing is that he’ll play center field, with Kyle Schwarber manning left field and Soler playing right. That obviously doesn’t preclude a Soler trade, but it also indicates that the Cubs don’t necessarily feel the need to move Soler in order to open right field, as they did at second base when they traded Starlin Castro to the Yankees to clear a spot for Ben Zobrist.
Moving Soler in a trade would again create a hole in center field, although the free agent market has options such as Denard Span and familiar face Dexter Fowler (the latter of whom shares an agent with Heyward) that could be brought in to fill that role if need be.
Chicago’s rotation currently figures to include Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel, though one idea that we’ve kicked around in talking about trade scenarios here at MLBTR has been to include Hendricks as one of multiple pieces that could net the team an upgrade (that’s just speculation, of course). To this point in the offseason, the Cubs have been connected to the names mentioned by Morosi as well as the since-traded Shelby Miller, Jose Fernandez and many other arms. Names like Sonny Gray and Chris Sale are popular speculative targets, but neither is likely to be moved this winter.
Jason Heyward Makes Decision; Cardinals Out, Nats Pessimistic
11:54pm: Heyman tweets that the Nationals are believed to have offered about or exactly $200MM to Heyward.
11:52am: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the Cardinals are “out” on Heyward.
11:50am: Jason Heyward has made a decision on which team he’ll sign with, a source tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link). Goold writes that while the Cardinals were aggressive, it doesn’t sound like Heyward chose them. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweets that the Nationals aren’t optimistic about a deal, either. The Cubs are “very much in play,” says Goold, though no report has indicated that Chicago has agreed to terms with Heyward just yet.
Heyward was said recently to be nearing a decision, with the Cubs, Cardinals and Nationals as finalists. The Angels were, at one point, said to be a finalist also, and the Giants have been linked to him, though they reportedly never made a formal offer.
Nationals “Serious Threat” To Land Heyward, Who Has $200MM Offer In Hand
9:46pm: A source tells MLB.com’s Bill Ladson that the Nats are “heavily involved” and are making a “legit” effort to sign the young outfielder. He adds, interestingly, that Taylor “would become expendable” if a deal is struck.
From an analytical perspective, it seems plenty plausible that the team could add Heyward (or another outfielder) and keep Taylor. For one thing, there’s plenty of justification to give him further developmental time at Triple-A. For another, he’d still be an important depth piece in the near term and would have plenty of possibilities for increased playing time with the clock ticking on Werth’s contract (and perhaps also his time as a full-time regular).
7:24pm: Washington is a “serious threat” to land Heyward, Jim Bowden of ESPN.com reports on Twitter.
3:45pm: The Nationals are the “mystery team” pursuing free agent outfielder Jason Heyward, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. They are joined in the chase for Heyward by the Cubs and Cardinals, per the report.
It’s not known which of those clubs — if not another — is in the lead, but Heyman adds in another tweet that Heyward has at least one offer at or over $200MM on the table. That’s not exactly surprising, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted Heyward would reach the double-century mark, but does appear to suggest that he’ll be in position to maximize his potential market value.
Heyward’s youth and broad skillset make him a tantalizing target even for clubs that otherwise seem set in the outfield, as I explained in breaking down Heyward’s free agent case in late October. He’s a very good, but not great, hitter who has never returned to the power ceiling he showed earlier in his career. But he’s at the top of the class in basically every other area.
It’s possible that Washington would utilize Heyward in center field were he to land there, Heyman suggests. While the team has youngster Michael A. Taylor lined up to take over there, he’s still raw. It’s worth bearing in mind, too, that veteran Jayson Werth has only two years left on his deal and could ultimately stand to receive added rest given his nagging injuries over the years. While trades could be considered in the wake of a signing, it’s also possible to imagine Heyward splitting his time up the middle and in the corner for some time as the teams waits to see what happens with its other options.
Orioles Claim Edgar Olmos, Designate Junior Lake
The Orioles announced that they have claimed lefty Edgar Olmos off waivers from the Cubs. Baltimore designated outfielder Junior Lake for assignment to clear roster space.
Olmos, 25, has bounced around via the waiver wire quite a bit in recent years. In fact, Chicago claimed him less than a week ago and obviously sought to stash him with a well-timed outright. Olmos has spent little time in the majors, but has shown an average fastball velocity of over 93 mph and put up a solid 3.55 ERA with 9.3 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 at Triple-A last year.
Baltimore had acquired Lake last summer in the trade that sent Tommy Hunter to the Cubs. He saw minimal MLB action in 2015 after having factored as a frequent contributor in 2013-14. Lake slashed .298/.397/.431 in his 355 Triple-A plate appearances last year, but has done little at the major league level since a strong debut season.
Cubs, Cardinals, Angels Among Finalists For Jason Heyward
2:29pm: MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez hears that the Angels aren’t seriously involved in the market for Heyward at this point (or for any top outfielder, for that matter), though he does add that said stance can change quickly (Twitter link).
1:31pm: ESPN’s Jayson Stark hears that Heyward isn’t looking for a 10-year deal in the $200MM range as has oft been speculated, but rather something more like eight or nine years at $24MM per season (Twitter link).
1:17pm: The Angels are also among the finalists for Heyward, reports Morosi (via Twitter).
11:37am: Cardinals GM John Mozeliak said he hasn’t been given any sort of indication as to the timing of a Heyward decision, tweets Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
10:00am: Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area tweets that the Giants checked in with Heyward but never got to the point of making an offer. There’s a sense in Nashville that Heyward will come off the board today, Pavlovic adds.
9:34am: Talks between Jason Heyward and interested parties are beginning to progress, according to Jon Morosi and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports report (Twitter link). The Cubs and Cardinals are among the finalists, per the report, but there are other yet-unnamed clubs in the mix for Heyward’s services.
Heyward’s name has come up most frequently in connection to the Cardinals and Cubs as of late, though he’s also been linked to the Angels and Giants in various reports, as each club could use a left-handed corner bat. The Giants, in particular, were said to prefer Heyward to some of the other bats on the market at present due to his glovework, though it remains to be seen if they’ll be among the top bidders in the end.
NL East Notes: Inciarte, Storen, Blackmon, Span, Colon, Braves
The Braves‘ impressive haul for right-hander Shelby Miller is one one of the biggest storylines of the past week, but there are already rumblings about one of the key pieces of the deal; Ender Inciarte has drawn a lot of interest since the trade, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link), who adds that the Cubs are one team that has inquired. Rosenthal reports that they haven’t engaged in any type of serious trade discussions, although ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets that he got the sense that the Braves are at least open to the idea of flipping Inciarte to another team in a further trade. One executive told Stark that as many as 12 teams have inquired on Inciarte, though he does add that rival teams don’t consider a trade to be particularly likely.
Here’s the latest from the NL East…
- The Twins have reached out to the Nationals to inquire on right-hander Drew Storen, reports James Wagner of the Washington Post (Twitter link). There’s nothing on the horizon at this point, however, he adds. Still, Minnesota has been prominently linked to Storen in previous seasons, so it’ll be interesting to see if they take that interest to another level this winter, when Storen is said to be available in trades.
- Sticking with the Nats, Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com tweets that Washington has talked with the Rockies about outfielder Charlie Blackmon, but the asking price on the 29-year-old center fielder is said to be quite high. Corey Dickerson could be in play, too, Kerzel notes, though he doesn’t specify that the Nationals have spoken to Colorado about him, specifically.
- The Mets still have interest in both Denard Span and Gerardo Parra, reports Newsday’s Marc Carig, and the club hasn’t completely ruled out a multi-year deal for either player if it proves necessary (Twitter link). A multi-year deal would seem to be imperative in talks with either player, as Parra reportedly has three-year offers in hand already, while agent Scott Boras dismissed the notion of a one-year deal for Span yesterday when asked by MLBTR’s Zach Links.
- The Mets have had preliminary talks with right-hander Bartolo Colon‘s camp about a reunion, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. While Colon probably wouldn’t hold down a rotation spot all season in Queens barring an injury to one of the Mets’ excellent young starters, he could be a valuable stopgap early in the year as Zack Wheeler progresses in his Tommy John rehab.
- Braves president John Hart and GM John Coppolella explained the team’s rebuilding process to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman while at the Winter Meetings in Nashville. Coppolella likened the rebuild to constructing a skyscraper, stressing the importance of building from the ground up in an an effort to deliver a sustainable run of success to Braves fans. He added that building a deep core of talent will help to prevent second-half collapses like the Braves have endured in recent seasons. Hart called many of the trades made by Atlanta “painful” but explained that each has been made with the same goal in mind: constructing a perennial World Series contender.