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AL East Notes: Orioles, Rays, Price, Cano

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Brian Matusz and Tommy Hunter want to be starters again, but they've already proven themselves to be successful in the bullpen, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.  While manager Buck Showalter will work to stretch them out in spring training, its possible that the O's would have sent Matusz to Triple-A Norfolk to work as a starter if that were an option.  Here's more out of the AL East..

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post reached out to nine baseball executives yesterday to ask if they felt David Price would get moved this winter and they all said yes.  Price, like Matt Garza and James Shields when they were dealt from Tampa Bay, is two years away from free agency, meaning that this is the time to move him.  The Rangers came up most often as the most likely destination followed by the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Padres, Red Sox, Giants, and Reds.
  • The perception around baseball that free agent Robinson Cano doesn't work hard could hurt his value, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post says that's its an unfair label.  The second baseman has a tendency to not run out grounders, but generally speaking, he has impeccable work habits.  “When he hits a groundball to the second baseman or shortstop, I know what it looks like,” hitting coach Kevin Long said. “I get it. I know it is part of the perception. He’s been talked to a million times about it. But I am telling you that is not a true picture of how hard he works or cares, and so if that is his only downfall, it is not the worst thing in the world.”
  • Kubatko revisited the Orioles' trade for Bud Norris and wonders if it will be worthwhile when all is said and done.

Cafardo On Arroyo, Kendrick, Braun, Cano

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Timing is everything in baseball and Joe Girardi is hitting the open market at the perfect time, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes.  The Cubs always saw landing Girardi as a longshot, but they'll give it another go this winter.  From the Yankees perspective, they'd be foolish not to lock Girardi up with a lucrative new deal, in Cafardo's opinion.  Few managers, he argues, could have survived the injuries that the Yankees were dealing with and kept them in the playoff chase in September.  If Girardi bails for Chicago or elsewhere, Cafardo suggests Don Mattingly as a candidate.  Of course, the Dodgers would have to fire him or work out a trade for that to happen.  Here's more from today's column..

  • Bronson Arroyo says he wants a three-year deal and he feels his time in Cincinnati is likely over. “I have no preference on where I want to pitch but I’ll certainly consider the team, their chances of winning, and all of that,” he said. “I feel I can pitch effectively at 37, 38, and 39 years old. I’ve never missed a start. Never been injured. I’m not a max-effort guy out there, so there’s no big-time wear and tear on me. I loved Cincinnati but I don’t think they’re in position to give me what I want.” Cafardo suggests the Blue Jays, Orioles, Brewers, Cubs, Giants, Pirates, Cardinals, and Dodgers as possibilities.
  • It's looking increasingly likely that Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick will be traded for pitching or prospects. The Royals need second base help and would have interest.  The Orioles may also be interested if they cut ties with Brian Roberts this winter.  The O's haven't decided what to do with Roberts just yet but they wouldn't go beyond a one-year deal to keep him. 
  • It has been suggested that the Brewers could trade Ryan Braun, but finding someone willing to take on his baggage and lucrative deal could be tricky.  “I don’t think he’s going anywhere. Someone would have to take a big chance and nobody’s doing that on PED guys, especially for that length of contract,” said one exec.
  • Bench coach Tony Pena is not likely to replace Girardi as manager if he goes elsewhere. “I don’t think anyone in our front office is even thinking about that,” said one Yankees official.
  • Many believe that the Dodgers won't be serious players for Robinson Cano, but things can change with an early exit from the playoffs.

Quick Hits: Ellsbury, Girardi, Schuerholz, Harvey

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ESPN's Jim Bowden offers up a list of players who could boost their values in free agency with strong postseason performances (Insider's subscription required). Jacoby Ellsbury, who checks in at No. 2 on our free agent power rankings, head's up Bowden's list. Most evaluators believe he's a superior player to both B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn, two center fielders who were payed handsomely last winter, Bowden says. Ellsbury's certainly made his case for a big contract so far this postseason: After going two for five last night with an RBI and a run, he already has three hits in three at-bats tonight, doubling in a run and scoring one himself. More Saturday night MLB links, as the Rays attempt to mount a comeback at Fenway…

  • The Yankees made an offer to Joe Girardi that is believed to be in the $4MM-$5MM per-year range, Mark Feinsand and Bill Madden of the New York Daily News report. The offer would reportedly make Girardi the second-highest paid manager in the game, trailing only Mike Scioscia of the Angels. However, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times says many in the Cubs organization are confident they'll have a chance to pry Girardi, their top managerial candidate, away from the Yankees.
  • Whoever ends up as the Cubs manager will find the task of nurturing young talent in a clubhouse of journeyman-type players a difficult one, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune writes. Many believe the Cubs are in line for another losing season in 2014, as several of their top young prospects aren't expected to arrive until 2015 at the earliest.
  • Shawn Windsor of the Detroit Free Press broke down the Tigers' rotation with the team's pitching coach, Jeff Jones.
  • Longtime Braves executive John Schuerholz discussed his career in an interview with Tracy Ringolsby of MLB.com, including his decision to vacate the club's GM job following the 2007 season. "I believed in my heart it was time for someone else, someone more aggressive, more energetic. I always had those things, but I could feel it wasn't the same," Schuerholz said. "I went to my boss, the chairman of the team, Terry McGuirk, and said, 'Here's the keys. I'm done.'" McGuirk later convinced Schuerholz to take the team president job.
  • Matt Harvey's decision to undergo Tommy John surgery was the right one, teammate David Wright tells Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. "I told him numerous times, 'If it was me and I was in the same situation, I would have the surgery,''' Wright said. The Mets captain added that he expects GM Sandy Alderson to boost the club's payroll this offseason.
  • Turnover in the Padres' front office and ownership have hurt the team's chances to contend, Jeff Sanders of U-T San Diego writes. Padres fans have watched the club post losing seasons in five of the past six years even as teams in similarly sized markets, like the Rays and the A's, have consistently assembled winning rosters. However, things appear to be headed in the right direction under President Mike Dee and GM Josh Byrnes. “Right now, as far as having everyone on the same page, it’s as good as it’s ever been," Randy Smith, who oversees the club's player development and international scouting, says.

Managerial Rumors: Girardi, Cubs, Yankees, Ausmus

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The managerial rumor mill is revolving around Joe Girardi right now, as he could be entering his final few weeks as the Yankees' manager.  Here's the latest on Girardi and the Cubs' search for a new skipper…

  • The Cubs are preparing to make Girardi an offer that would make him one of the two highest-paid managers in baseball, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.  The Cubs have yet to receive permission from the Yankees to speak to Girardi but the manager may have requested that the Yankees grant him the ability to speak to the Cubs as one of the "parameters" of accepting a new contract with New York.  Sources tell Wittenmyer that "the Cubs and Girardi have expressed mutual interest through back channels for weeks."
  • We've already heard that A.J. Hinch is on the Cubs' short list for managerial candidates, and Wittenmyer hears that the list also includes Indians bench coach Sandy Alomar Jr.  The Cubs could also have interest in Rays bench coach Dave Martinez and former Nationals and Indians manager Manny Acta.
  • Steve Mandell, Girardi's agent, met with Yankees GM Brian Cashman on Wednesday and "exchanged parameters" on a new deal, according to Mark Feinsand and Bill Madden of the New York Daily News.  One of those "parameters" could have been the aforementioned persmisson for Girardi to speak to the Cubs, as the Yankees aren't allowing other teams to negotiate with their manager while he is still under contract.
  • The "general consensus" is that Girardi will sign a new three-year, $12-$15MM deal to remain with the Yankees, Feinsand and Madden write.  If Girardi doesn't return to New York, the Cubs and Nationals are known to have an interest in his services as manager, and it's possible Girardi could speak to FOX Sports about a broadcasting job if he wanted some time away from the dugout.
  • Girardi's decision could be made as early as this weekend, Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York reports.
  • There is no interest between Brad Ausmus and the Cubs in the team's managerial job, ESPN Chicago's Jesse Rogers reports.  The Cubs have said they're looking for candidates with managerial experience, so Ausmus (currently a special assistant to baseball operations with the Padres) doesn't fit.

Cubs Claim Mat Gamel

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The Cubs have claimed Mat Gamel off waivers from the Brewers, according to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (on Twitter). The 28-year-old has seen a once-promising big league career get derailed by injuries and was waived by the Brewers earlier in the week.

Gamel was supposed to fill the void left by Corey Hart early in the 2013 campaign, but a torn ACL squashed what would have been a terrific opportunity for the 28-year-old. Hart didn't play a came this season, meaning that Gamel could have had a full season's worth of at-bats to prove himself for the first time in his career. Instead, Gamel will instead carry a career batting line of .229/.305/.367 to his former division rivals.

Gamel twice ranked among Baseball America's Top 100 prospects and appeared on BA's list of Top 10 Brewers prospects on four separate occasions. He's dominated Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .301/.374/.512 batting line and could get a look at third base in Spring Training, as Anthony Rizzo is entrenched as the Cubs' first baseman for the foreseeable future.

Gamel is technically eligible for arbitration this offseason due to spending the bulk of the 2012-13 seasons on the Major League 60-day disabled list. However, his inability to take the field due to injuries in each of the past two seasons should keep his salary just north of $500K, creating little risk for the Cubs should they wish to tender him a contract.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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After another rebuilding year in 2013, the Cubs will attempt to change the conversation with a new manager and perhaps veteran additions to fill some of the team's many weak spots until top prospects are ready.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis)

Free Agents

2014 Payroll Obligations For Former Players

The Cubs haven't had a .500 record since 2009, way back when Kevin Gregg was their closer (the first time).  The team's current Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer/Jason McLeod braintrust was hired after the 2011 season.  While they would tell you every season counts, the team has yet to take a win-now approach during the Epstein regime, even with $86MM in new free agent commitments last winter.  For the second consecutive summer, the team's brass shipped out veterans with trade value, including newly-signed ones.

The new regime's record is 127-197, so recently-fired manager Dale Sveum presided over what should be the worst of times.  The Cubs will soon hire their fourth manager in five seasons, prioritizing "managerial or other on-field leadership experience" and "expertise developing young talent."  Joe Girardi, Yankees manager since 2008 and a former Cubs player and Illinois native, has a contract that expires at the end of the month.  Cubs ownership covets him and is poised to offer $4MM or more per season, reported Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, though they've not yet been granted permission to speak to him and the Yankees made an offer to retain him.  Hiring Girardi would be a sign the team is getting serious about trying to win, as he would not likely be thrilled taking on a team lacking Major League talent.  Manny Acta, Sandy Alomar Jr., A.J. Hinch, and Dave Martinez are other possible candidates, reports Wittenmyer.

In the statement regarding Sveum's firing, Epstein acknowledged the Cubs' biggest issue as a "shortage of talent at the major league level."  This year Cubs position players accounted for just 16.9 wins above replacement, 21st in baseball.  In terms of players controlled beyond this year who provided as least two wins, the list is short: catcher Welington Castillo and part-time third baseman Luis Valbuena.

Notably absent are the Cubs' two biggest Major League building blocks, Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo.  Both players are signed through 2019.  Castro took a big step backward with the bat, hitting .245/.284/.347.  He may never draw walks, but the Cubs will need him to at least return to making better contact and showing moderate power, even if he doesn't develop into a star.  When Castro signed his $60MM extension, he had almost 1,800 big league plate appearances.  Rizzo, however, had fewer than 700.  The only other player to receive $40MM+ with that short of a big league track record is Ryan Braun in 2008.  Playing his first full season this year, Rizzo failed to reach the offensive production of an average first baseman.

The Cubs figure to show patience toward Castro and Rizzo into 2014, while hoping for continued growth from Castillo.  In Javier Baez, however, Castro has one of the game's best prospects pushing him.  Baez may be ready for Major League action by next summer, if he cleans up his defense and perhaps cuts down on his strikeouts.  The best case scenario is a Castro-Baez middle infield tandem, while third base is an option for Baez as well.  Kris Bryant, drafted second overall by the Cubs in June, could also be ready next year, and projects for third base or right field.  Furthering the Cubs' infield depth are Mike Olt, acquired in the Matt Garza trade, Christian Villanueva, acquired in the Ryan Dempster deal, and Arismendy Alcantara.  It's been a lost year for Olt, but overall, the Cubs' infield depth is strong.  Second base may be the biggest short-term need, particularly if Barney is traded or non-tendered.  I don't expect the Cubs to get involved on Robinson Cano, but Omar Infante could be a consideration.  After hitting 11 home runs in 163 plate appearances, Donnie Murphy may have earned himself a contract for 2014 and the initial crack at the hot corner.

The Cubs have a pair of premium outfield prospects in Albert Almora and Jorge Soler.  Neither is Major League ready, however, leaving only Schierholtz locked in for 2014.  Schierholtz provided cheap power against right-handed pitching this year, and perhaps the Cubs will again acquire a right-handed hitting complement like Rajai Davis, Justin Ruggiano, or Kyle Blanks.  An in-house right-handed bat, Junior Lake, could have the inside track on left field after a decent rookie showing following the trade of Alfonso Soriano.  Lake could help in center field, as could Brian Bogusevic.  Minor league signing Ryan Sweeney performed well, though he's a free agent again.  Other center field stopgaps should be explored as well, such as Davis, Ruggiano, Chris Young, and Franklin Gutierrez.  Illinois native Curtis Granderson could make some sense, but a qualifying offer and/or a three-year requirement would likely suppress interest from the Cubs.  The Cubs' long-term outfield plan seems to be in place, though that won't stop agent Scott Boras from pitching free agent Jacoby Ellsbury.  Epstein doesn't need to review Ellsbury's Boras Binder, however, after drafting him in the first round in '05 and watching him blossom into a star in Boston.

The Cubs have traded 40% of their rotation each summer under the Epstein regime, moving Paul Maholm and Dempster in 2012 and Scott Feldman and Garza this year.  Maholm was the only one not in a contract year.  The Cubs continue to wait on a potential return for Maholm, as the recovery period for Arodys Vizcaino's March 2012 Tommy John surgery has taken much longer than expected.  Jake Arrieta, a key piece in the Feldman deal with Baltimore, projects to earn a spot in next year's rotation out of spring training.  Lefty Travis Wood represented the Cubs in the All-Star game this year and has a spot locked down for 2014, as do Jeff Samardzija and Edwin Jackson.

Last winter the Cubs imported an unprecedented four free agent starters, and the depth was needed when Scott Baker's Tommy John recovery stalled and Garza and Feldman were dealt.  I don't think anyone saw the team's flirtation with Anibal Sanchez or four-year deal with Jackson coming last winter.  While Chris Rusin, Justin Grimm, or Carlos Villanueva could take the fifth starter job next year, it seems likely the Cubs will look to add pitching from outside the organization again.  That could mean another go-round with Baker, other one-year projects like Gavin Floyd, Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, Jason Hammel, Roberto Hernandez, Dan Haren, or Phil Hughes, or multiyear commitments to Scott Kazmir, Tim Lincecum, Ubaldo Jimenez, or Masahiro Tanaka.  David Price will be the prize of the trade market, though two years of control doesn't mesh well with the Cubs' timeline.

In Samardzija, the Cubs could offer up a trade chip with a 95 mile per hour fastball, fresh off a 214 strikeout season.  With a 3.34 ERA over the season's first three months, the 28-year-old appeared to be in the midst of an ace-caliber season.  Samardzija followed that with a 5.47 ERA, however, and in the end mostly replicated his 2012 season with an additional 39 innings.  On the trade market, two years of Samardzija could bring a huge haul, exceeding the well-regarded package the Cubs extracted from the Rangers to rent Garza for a few months.  First the Cubs will explore an extension, which I think could be in the range of the $80MM deals signed by Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander four years prior.  To date, the pitcher and agents Sam Samardzija and Mark Rodgers have not shown a willingness to take a team-friendly deal, and getting closer to free agency should only strengthen their stance.

Among the team's other arbitration eligible players, the Cubs could look to sign Schierholtz or Wood to multiyear deals.  Castillo, who has two years of service, could be a candidate for a team-friendly contract.  Despite a 3.11 ERA this year, the Cubs may be best served waiting on Wood, whose skills suggest more of a 4.50 pitcher.

Even with an out of nowhere 33-save season from Gregg, the Cubs' bullpen ranked 13th in the NL with a 4.04 ERA.  Though the Cubs' Fujikawa signing went bust due to Tommy John surgery, it showed a willingness to spend to solidify the bullpen.  Arbitration eligible lefty James Russell could be a trade candidate; otherwise he'll join holdovers Blake Parker, Strop, and perhaps Grimm and Villanueva.  Hector Rondon will likely be in the mix, and if the Cubs tender a contract to September waiver claim project Daniel Bard, he could become an option as well.  The Cubs will probably bring in a veteran reliever or two from the outside, letting Gregg walk as a free agent after nearly releasing him in September over complaints he made.

Among the Cubs' free agents, aside from Sweeney and perhaps Baker, the team may entertain re-signing backup catcher Dioner Navarro.  Due to the stellar work of Castillo and Navarro, the Cubs ranked fourth in baseball with five wins above replacement at catcher.  They paid just $2.25MM for the pair, but the 29-year-old Navarro may have earned himself another shot at starting with another club.  The Cubs could add a veteran backup to replace him.

Cubs fans have patiently watched for two years as Epstein, Hoyer, McLeod and company rebuilt the team from the ground up.  Fans might allow for one more talent-stockpiling mulligan in 2014, perhaps with the reward of a Baez summer debut.  Expectations for 2015 will be huge, at which point Epstein will have two years remaining on his contract.

NL Central Notes: Cubs, Reds, Castillo, Baker,

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Yesterday, we learned that the Cubs will contact Padres executive A.J. Hinch about a possible return to managing.  The Cubs obviously have a big focus on player development and Hinch's work with Justin Upton, Max Scherzer, Stephen Drew, and Miguel Montero is likely a plus for the club.  Here's a look at the NL Central as the Pirates get set to do battle with the Cardinals..

  • Tim Dierkes (via Twitter) has talked with multiple agents who see the Cubs spending significant money on a free agent catcher this winter.  That comes as something of a surprise following a solid year by Wellington Castillo, who is still pre-arbitration eligible.  Castillo, 26, hit .274/.349/.397 in 428 plate appearances this season.
  • The Cubs aren't locked on to anyone in their managerial search, but they have serious interest in Yankees skipper Joe Girardi, sources tell ESPN.com's Buster Olney.  Cubs ownership is rather high on Girardi and they're making a strong internal argument to hire him.  Meanwhile, Yanks GM Brian Cashman is scheduled to meet with Girardi's agent today.
  • In the immediate aftermath of last night's loss, Reds GM indicated that Dusty Baker will be back in 2014, writes John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. When asked if there was any question about Baker returning, Jocketty said: “I don’t think so.  He’s signed for another year.” The final call on the veteran skipper will be made by owner Bob Castellini.
  • The Cubs have a plan in place for the future but it will require patience as their top prospects aren't ready for the big leagues yet, writes Carrie Muskat of MLB.com.  President Theo Epstein has indicated that he won't spend a ton this winter and will instead look to fill holes with low-cost signings.

Central Notes: Hinch, Royals, Tigers

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The Cubs will contact A.J. Hinch as they search for a replacement for manager Dale Sveum, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports suggested earlier in the day (on Twitter) that Hinch might be a possibility. Hinch, who is now in the Padres' front office, served as the Diamondbacks' manager for parts of the 2009 and 2010 seasons. His work in the Diamondbacks organization with players like Justin Upton, Max Scherzer, Stephen Drew and Miguel Montero might be a positive for the Cubs, who have a strong core of prospects in place. Here are more notes from the Central divisions.

NL Central Notes: Pirates, Reds, Hinch, Brewers

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The Pirates, who tonight will host their first playoff game since 1992, were built not only through the draft, as small-payroll teams often are, but also through trades and free agency, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker and Tony Watson were drafted by Neal Huntington's predecessor Dave Littlefield, and Huntington drafted Pedro Alvarez, Jordy Mercer, Justin Wilson and Gerrit Cole. But the 2013 Pirates were shaped, in large part, by two 2012 acquisitions of former Yankees — the Bucs traded for top-of-the-rotation starter A.J. Burnett before the 2012 campaign, and signed catcher and defensive wizard Russell Martin to a two-year deal after the season was over. Here are more notes from around the NL Central.

  • A loss for the Reds tonight could raise questions about the team's future, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. Outfielder Shin-Soo Choo is set to become a free agent. And if pitching coach Bryan Price becomes a top managerial candidate with the Mariners, there might be questions about Dusty Baker's future with the Reds as well, since the Reds would likely want to keep Price. Such questions probably wouldn't be resolved right away, however — Baker is due around $4MM next year, and the Reds had 90 wins this year, so there would be no rush to replace him.
  • After dismissing Dale Sveum, the Cubs are looking for a manager, and Rosenthal (via Twitter) thinks former Diamondbacks manager A.J. Hinch might be one possibility. Hinch is currently an assistant GM for the Padres. Rosenthal tweets that, among Padres personnel, Hinch appears more likely for the Cubs job than special assistant Brad Ausmus.
  • First base tops the Brewers' list of priorities this offseason, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com writes. Brewers first basemen hit just .206/.259/.370 in 2013, and their primary first baseman was Yuniesky Betancourt, who hit .212/.240/.355. GM Doug Melvin suggests the Brewers could bring back Corey Hart after Hart missed the entire 2013 season, but the Brewers want to learn more about the condition of his knees.

Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago Cubs

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Cubs are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Samardzija is the Cubs' most important arbitration case, in that they are running out of time to extend him as he moves closer to free agency.  Though he didn't improve much this year beyond pitching more innings, extensions for pitchers with four years of Major League service are rare.  Samardzija should be able to get past Matt Harrison's five-year, $55MM deal, and closer to $80MM territory.  If the Cubs can't agree with his agent on his value, he could bring an impressive haul in trade this winter.

Schierholtz, Russell, Wood, Valbuena, and Strop have roles on next year's team, perhaps barring trades of the first two.  Though Wood had something of a breakout season, I don't think there's urgency to give him a $30MM guarantee on a multiyear deal, given lackluster peripheral stats.

We've projected Bard for the same salary he had last year, since reductions are so rare.  The Cubs' September waiver claim of Bard suggests they'll tender him a contract, or at least non-tender and quickly re-sign him for less than the allowable 20% pay cut.  Murphy has generally been deemed expendable by teams, but it would be fair to keep him on the roster after he hit 11 home runs in 163 plate appearances for the Cubs.

Barney won a Gold Glove in 2012 and continued to play strong defense this year.  However, his lack of offensive production dwarfed his defense, resulting in a replacement level season.  A non-tender seems extreme, partially because $2.1MM is acceptable money for a backup.  The Cubs may instead consider trading Barney this winter.  McDonald, a journeyman outfielder, will likely lose his 40-man roster spot soon.

If the Cubs tender contracts to Samardzija, Schierholtz, Wood, Barney, Bard, Russell, Valbuena, Strop, and Murphy, they'll be looking at an estimated $21.5MM for nine arbitration eligible players.

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