NL Central Notes: Pirates, Reds, Hinch, Brewers
The Pirates, who tonight will host their first playoff game since 1992, were built not only through the draft, as small-payroll teams often are, but also through trades and free agency, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker and Tony Watson were drafted by Neal Huntington's predecessor Dave Littlefield, and Huntington drafted Pedro Alvarez, Jordy Mercer, Justin Wilson and Gerrit Cole. But the 2013 Pirates were shaped, in large part, by two 2012 acquisitions of former Yankees — the Bucs traded for top-of-the-rotation starter A.J. Burnett before the 2012 campaign, and signed catcher and defensive wizard Russell Martin to a two-year deal after the season was over. Here are more notes from around the NL Central.
- A loss for the Reds tonight could raise questions about the team's future, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. Outfielder Shin-Soo Choo is set to become a free agent. And if pitching coach Bryan Price becomes a top managerial candidate with the Mariners, there might be questions about Dusty Baker's future with the Reds as well, since the Reds would likely want to keep Price. Such questions probably wouldn't be resolved right away, however — Baker is due around $4MM next year, and the Reds had 90 wins this year, so there would be no rush to replace him.
- After dismissing Dale Sveum, the Cubs are looking for a manager, and Rosenthal (via Twitter) thinks former Diamondbacks manager A.J. Hinch might be one possibility. Hinch is currently an assistant GM for the Padres. Rosenthal tweets that, among Padres personnel, Hinch appears more likely for the Cubs job than special assistant Brad Ausmus.
- First base tops the Brewers' list of priorities this offseason, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com writes. Brewers first basemen hit just .206/.259/.370 in 2013, and their primary first baseman was Yuniesky Betancourt, who hit .212/.240/.355. GM Doug Melvin suggests the Brewers could bring back Corey Hart after Hart missed the entire 2013 season, but the Brewers want to learn more about the condition of his knees.
Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago Cubs
Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Cubs are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.
- Jeff Samardzija (4.028): $4.9MM
- Nate Schierholtz (5.078): $3.8MM
- Travis Wood (3.004): $3.6MM
- Darwin Barney (3.053): $2.1MM
- Daniel Bard (3.079): $1.8625MM
- James Russell (4.000): $1.7MM
- Luis Valbuena (3.148): $1.5MM
- Pedro Strop (2.156, Super Two): $1MM
- Donnie Murphy (4.043): $1MM
- Darnell McDonald (3.130): $700K
Samardzija is the Cubs' most important arbitration case, in that they are running out of time to extend him as he moves closer to free agency. Though he didn't improve much this year beyond pitching more innings, extensions for pitchers with four years of Major League service are rare. Samardzija should be able to get past Matt Harrison's five-year, $55MM deal, and closer to $80MM territory. If the Cubs can't agree with his agent on his value, he could bring an impressive haul in trade this winter.
Schierholtz, Russell, Wood, Valbuena, and Strop have roles on next year's team, perhaps barring trades of the first two. Though Wood had something of a breakout season, I don't think there's urgency to give him a $30MM guarantee on a multiyear deal, given lackluster peripheral stats.
We've projected Bard for the same salary he had last year, since reductions are so rare. The Cubs' September waiver claim of Bard suggests they'll tender him a contract, or at least non-tender and quickly re-sign him for less than the allowable 20% pay cut. Murphy has generally been deemed expendable by teams, but it would be fair to keep him on the roster after he hit 11 home runs in 163 plate appearances for the Cubs.
Barney won a Gold Glove in 2012 and continued to play strong defense this year. However, his lack of offensive production dwarfed his defense, resulting in a replacement level season. A non-tender seems extreme, partially because $2.1MM is acceptable money for a backup. The Cubs may instead consider trading Barney this winter. McDonald, a journeyman outfielder, will likely lose his 40-man roster spot soon.
If the Cubs tender contracts to Samardzija, Schierholtz, Wood, Barney, Bard, Russell, Valbuena, Strop, and Murphy, they'll be looking at an estimated $21.5MM for nine arbitration eligible players.
Quick Hits: Pence, Westbrook, Abreu, Astros
While it’s not a mistake on the level of the Barry Zito contract, the Giants could come to regret the Hunter Pence deal, writes Dave Cameron of Fangraphs. The $90MM contract won’t stop them from winning if they can surround him with quality players on undervalue contracts, but that’s obviously easier said than done. Here’s more from around baseball..
- Jake Westbrook can read the writing on the wall and knows that his time with the Cardinals is likely over, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Between his struggles and the Cards’ wealth of young pitching, Westbrook isn’t expected to be placed on the postseason roster. Westbrook isn’t certain if he will pitch in 2014 and plans to discuss with his family in the offseason.
- Ben Badler of Baseball America spoke with international sources to identify five teams that could sign Jose Dariel Abreu. The White Sox, Nationals, Pirates, Red Sox, and Rangers look like the frontrunners for the Cuban standout with Texas possibly having the inside track on everyone.
- Prior to a charity event earlier today, Astros owner Jim Crane said that he plans to spend money in 2014 to help turn the club around, writes Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle. “Now we have a nucleus to draw from. And so we got that established. I think in the off-season you’ll see Jeff [Luhnow], and he’s already said it, we’re going to fill some of those holes. As the kids come up through the system we can get competitive very quick. We lost a lot of one-run games. It’s pretty obvious where our needs are, and we’ll work on those in the offseason and start loosening the purse book,” Crane said.
- Cubs president Theo Epstein says he will look first and foremost at candidates with managerial experience, tweets Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter) notes that the Dodgers hold an option on manager Don Mattingly for 2014. The option is worth $1.4MM, sources tell Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi.
Cubs Fire Dale Sveum
11:25am: Cubs president Theo Epstein has issued a lengthy statement praising Sveum for his work on game-planning and defensive positioning, and never complaining about the hand he was dealt while with the Cubs. Within the statement, he adds that he and GM Jed Hoyer accept responsibility for the team's win-loss record, which is the result of their own rebuilding plan. Says Epstein:
"Today, we made the very difficult decision to relieve Dale Sveum of his duties as Cubs manager. Dale has been a committed leader for this team the last two seasons, and I want to thank him for all of his dedication and hard work. I have a lot of admiration for Dale personally, and we all learned a lot from the way he has handled the trying circumstances of the last two years, especially the last two weeks, with strength and dignity."
The entire statement can be read over at CSNChicago.com.
10:59am: The Cubs have fired manager Dale Sveum, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter).
Sveum took over as the Cubs manager at the onset of the 2012 campaign and has managed the team to a 127-197 record in two seasons at the helm. He hasn't been handed a great deal of big league talent to work with from the rebuilding Cubs. Sveum has previously served as a third base coach for the Red Sox and was also the bench coach and third base coach for the Brewers before eventually taking over as their interim manager to close out the 2008 season. He finished that season 7-5 and lost to the Phillies in the NLDS.
Sveum has been thought to be on thin ice for quite some time now, and there are rumblings that Chicago native Joe Girardi could be of interest to the Cubs. Girardi's contract with the Yankees ran only through the 2013 season.
NL Central Notes: Burnett, Sveum, Aoki
Pirates pitcher A.J. Burnett could be making his last career start when he takes the hill tonight against the Reds. The Pirates have clinched a playoff spot, of course, but they're extremely likely to end up in a one-game playoff, also against Cincinnati. Francisco Liriano figures to start that game, and if the Pirates lose it, their season would be over. Burnett recently told the press he was "50-50" about whether he would play in 2014, although the Pirates have shown strong interest in bringing him back. Here are more notes from the NL Central.
- Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and the Cubs are likely to make a decision about manager Dale Sveum and his coaching staff by Monday, Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com reports (via Twitter). Sveum's status has been uncertain for weeks now, with rumblings that the Cubs always considered him a placeholder until they were ready to compete. A strong year for the Cubs' top prospects may have convinced Epstein and Hoyer to be more aggressive in finding a manager for next season. The Cubs have gone 66-93 while rebuilding in 2013.
- The Brewers will exercise outfielder Norichika Aoki's option, MLB.com's Adam McCalvy reports (via Twitter). Aoki's option is only for $1.5MM (with a $250K buyout) and so, as McCalvy notes, the decision was likely an easy one for Milwaukee. Aoki has produced a combined 4.2 WAR in his two seasons with the Brewers, including 1.7 in a 2013 season in which he's hit .287/.357/.368.
Baez, Taveras, Sano Change Agencies
4:29pm: Cubs top prospect Javier Baez has also changed agencies and is now represented by KPS Sports, according to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick (on Twitter). MLBTR's Tim Dierkes tweeted last week that Baez had joined a small, lesser-known agency without a great deal of experience. He appears to be the most noteworthy player signed with KPS. Baez was formerly represented by B.B. Abbott of Jet Sports Management.
On their midseason Top 50 lists, Baez ranked as the game's No. 9 prospect according to MLB.com, No. 10 according to BA and No. 27 according to Keith Law. The 20-year-old shortstop batted .282/.341/.578 with a highly impressive 37 homers between High-A Daytona and Double-A Tennessee this season.
8:31am: Miguel Sano and Oscar Taveras are consensus top five prospects in the game, and each has recently changed representation. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that Sano's agent, Rob Plummer, has been hired by SFX after parting ways with the Beverly Hills Sports Council, and Sano has stuck with his longtime agent. Taveras, meanwhile, is back with former agent Melvin Roman of MDR Sports Management (Twitter links).
Taveras has now changed agencies a remarkable four times since January and, strangely, is back with Roman for the third time in 2013 alone. Taveras left MDR for Plummer back in January but switched back less than a month later. He remained with MDR through mid-August when he joined Greg Genske's Legacy Agency. The Cardinals outfielder ranked second on the Midseason Top 50 Prospect lists of Baseball America, ESPN's Keith Law (Insider subscription req'd) and MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo despite an injury-shortened season. The 21-year-old Taveras hit a solid .306/.361/.462 with five homers in 46 games for Triple-A Memphis but missed most of the season due to ankle surgery.
The 20-year-old Sano mashed his way to a No. 3 ranking on the Midseason Top 50 Prospect lists of Baseball America and MLB.com and a No. 4 ranking on the same list from Law. The powerful Twins prospect batted .280/.382/.610 with a combined 35 homers between High-A Fort Myers and Double-A New Britain.
For additional agency info on nearly 2,000 Major League and Minor League players, check out MLBTR's Agency Database. If you see any omissions or errors within the database, please email us at mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
Quick Hits: Commissioner, Rollins, Diamondbacks
Now that Bud Selig has announced he will retire following the 2014 season, speculation has already begun about who will be Major League Baseball's next commissioner. ESPN's Jayson Stark thinks it would be "a monumental upset" if MLB doesn't go with an internal candidate, and the favorites are league executive vice-presidents Rob Manfred and Tim Brosnan, and MLB Advanced Media CEO Bob Bowman. Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan hears that Manfred is the safest and most well-rounded pick, though some sources consider Brosnan to be the better candidate. Stark and Passan list such names as Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski, Mets GM Sandy Alderson, Indians president Mark Shapiro and Diamondbacks president Derrick Hall as other possible choices.
Here are some notes as Yankee Stadium says goodbye to Mariano Rivera…
- Jimmy Rollins is confident that the Phillies already have the pieces they need to succeed thanks to their emerging youth, CSNPhilly.com's Corey Seidman writes. “That old window's closed," Rollins admitted. "This is a brand new thing. You've still got the pieces, but this is a brand new thing going forward. Obviously we would love to have that right-handed bat, but Darin Ruf has come up and done that so far. We're going to get Ryan [Howard] back, hopefully a healthy Ryan back on his legs and strong."
- Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers will recommend to ownership that manager Kirk Gibson be retained for next season, Towers told reporters (including MLB.com's Steve Gilbert). Gibson has a 289-277 record since taking over as Arizona's manager halfway through the 2010 season and he led the team to an NL West title in 2011. Both Gibson and Towers are only under contract through the end of the 2014 season.
- While Brad Ziegler has enjoyed being the Diamondbacks' closer, he tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that it doesn't matter if he's closing or in his usual set-up role next season. Ziegler has a 2.28 ERA and 12 saves over 71 IP and a league-best 76 games this season. He's going into his third and final year of arbitration eligibility though there has been talk that Arizona will try to work out a contract extension.
- Jack Zduriencik's mistakes as the Mariners' general manager are recapped by Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times in a piece that chronicles the team's strategies and major transactions over the last several years. While Baker holds Zduriencik accountable for his own mistakes, he also points the finger at the club's upper management for the larger issues surrounding the Mariners' lack of recent success.
- John Danks is "embarrassed" by his performance since signing a five-year, $65MM extension with the White Sox before the 2012 season, the southpaw tells MLB.com's Scott Merkin. "The goal is always to throw 200-plus innings, take the ball every day and give us a chance to win. I've got three years to make everyone believe it was worth it," Danks said. "That's part of my motivating factor. I want to be the productive player I'm expected to be."
- "The Cubs are the last-place team poised to contend the soonest. The Astros are the one with the brightest future," Jim Callis writes for MLB.com in his analysis of both teams' young talent.
MLBTR's Zach Links contributed to this post
NL Central Links: Lohse, Arrieta, Sveum
The NL Central has morphed into one of the game's toughest divisions, with three teams ticketed for October baseball in the form of the Cardinals, Reds and Pirates. Here are some notes on the division's non-playoff teams…
- Kyle Lohse picked up a $350K bonus tonight for reaching the 190-inning mark, tweets Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Lohse signed a three-year, $33MM contract in Spring Training and has delivered nearly 200 innings of a mid-3.00 ERA for the Brewers.
- Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago writes that the Cubs' 2014 rotation is beginning to take shape, and Jake Arrieta has cemented a spot for himself among the team's core of starting pitchers with his solid performance after coming over from the Orioles in the Scott Feldman trade. Manager Dale Sveum told Rogers the only uncertainty in the rotation, in his mind, circles around the No. 5 spot. Jeff Samardzija, Travis Wood and Edwin Jackson will join Arrieta in the rotation next season.
- Speaking of Sveum, David Haugh of the Chicago Tribune opines that the right thing for Cubs president Theo Epstein to do is bring his manager back for the 2014 season (subscription required). Firing Sveum with one year left on his contract would send the wrong message, writes Haugh. He's been given little Major League talent to work with and has done nothing to embarrass the organization.
Cubs Notes: Sveum, Girardi, Epstein
The latest on the Cubs as the regular season winds down..
- Rival execs on other teams assumed that Dale Sveum's job would be safe through the rebuilding phase, but a strong year from prospects Javier Baez, Albert Almora, Jorge Soler, and Kris Bryant may have club brass feeling a little bit more bullish about their timetable, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Meanwhile, notable names such as Joe Girardi, Ron Gardenhire, and Mike Scioscia could find themselves available this winter, giving Theo Epstein & Co. even more to think about when evaluating Sveum's future.
- Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times attempts to bust some of the myths about the Cubs' rebuilding project. Some expect the Cubs to start using their financial muscle in the near future to make a move towards contending, but Wittenmyer explains why that's not in the cards at the moment.
- Sveum was supposed to find out about his status on Monday, but he's still waiting on word from the higher-ups, writes Carrie Muskat of MLB.com.
Rosenthal On Sveum, Yankees, Giants
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has a lot of interesting stuff in today's column and we'll take a look at some of the highlights below..
- The Cubs never hired Dale Sveum as a long-term answer in the dugout. Instead, he was brought aboard as a bridge to a big-name manager who would "complete the job" once the team was ready to win. Rosenthal says that both the Cubs and the skipper were aware of this when the hire was made nearly two years ago. Sveum has just one year remaining on his deal and it has been speculated that Yankees skipper Joe Girardi could be a candidate.
- While the Yankees have been routinely criticized for their development of young talent, the 2006 draft stands as quite a success. However, notables Ian Kennedy, Mark Melancon, Zach McAllister, and George Kontos are now elsewhere. GM Brian Cashman was aware of the club's history of trading away promising young talent, which led to his disagreement with Tampa brass over the Alfonso Soriano deal. Cashman denies reports that say he opposed the trade but admits that he opposed the timing of it. He believes that if they waited until they got closer to Aug. 31st deadline, the Cubs would have taken a lesser prospect than pitcher Corey Black.
- One rival executive expects the Giants to make a play for a Cuban free agent like Jose Dariel Abreu or second baseman Alexander Guerrero. The exec believes that the Giants have seen the impact of Cuban players Yasiel Puig and Yoenis Cespedes right in their own backyard and will look to join in this winter. It also helps that San Francisco is in need of some offense.