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Rosenthal On Garza, Rangers, Phillies, Brewers

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has lots of great stuff in his latest edition of Full Count.  Here's a look at the highlights..

  • The Rangers' interest in Matt Garza is nothing new and two sources told Rosenthal that they nearly acquired Garza at last year's trade deadline with one source saying it was within minutes of happening and the other saying it was really close.  The problem was that Garza was dealing with a triceps issue and it turned out that he didn't pitch after July 21st.  The two sides were working on various contingencies right up until the last day but they eventually decided to just deal for Ryan Dempster instead.
  • Phillies GM Ruben Amaro is reluctant to trade players who could be part of the team's future, specifically Jonathan Papelbon, Chase Utley, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels.  When asked specifically about the idea of creating another closer if they part with Papelbon, Amaro noted that the only time they have done that was with Ryan Madson and it took four years for him to develop into a closer.  Amaro explained that he doesn't have that kind of time and none of their young pitchers are even remotely ready to close.
  • The Brewers' Yovani Gallardo and Kyle Lohse wouldn't figure to be in high demand, but their respective contracts make them attractive to contending clubs.  The upcoming free agent market will be thin in starters and guys like Garza, Josh Johnson, and Ricky Nolasco will want at least three or four years.  Gallardo and Lohse are under club control for two more years at below market salary – Lohse makes $11MM in 2014 and 2015 while Gallardo makes $11.25MM with a $13MM club option for 2015.  
  • The White Sox are a virtual lock to make deals before the deadline, but even then, their work might not be done.  Even if Paul Konerko and Jake Peavy do not show that they are fully healthy by July 31st, they could get moved during the August waiver period.  Both would figure to clear waivers and if Konerko wants to join a contender, he would waive his 10-and-5 rights and the White Sox would almost certainly try to accommodate him.

Dodgers Notes: Nolasco, Marmol, Rockies

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After weeks of hearing that the Marlins were desperate to move Ricky Nolasco and wanted to find a trade partner ASAP, the Dodgers stepped up and grabbed him for a trio of pitching prospects and got some additional international bonus slot money in the swap.  Here's the latest out of Los Angeles following yesterday's trade..

  • General Manager Ned Colletti & Co. felt that Matt Garza wasn't worth the prospect cost at this time, so they went with Nolasco instead, tweets Jim Bowden of ESPN.com.  The Dodgers continue to be aggressive in several trade discussions.  Bowden adds (link) that the Dodgers' priority is finding a back-end power arm and then another starter.
  • The Dodgers filled a major need with their acquisition of Nolasco, writes Scott Miller of CBSSports.com.  Back in spring training, everyone wondered how the Dodgers could fit eight starting pitchers into five rotation slots.  In July, rotation depth was a major need for Los Angeles.  
  • While the Dodgers' acquisition of Carlos Marmol made headlines, their real motive in the deal was securing extra space to spend in the international market, writes Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.  The Dodgers don't plan to have a this high of a payroll forever and the additional bonus money will help them develop their own talent in the long-term.
  • The Rockies talked with the Marlins about Ricky Nolasco and even though they liked him, paying roughly $5.6MM for a rental was never in the cards for them, tweets Troy Renck of the Denver Post. 

Draft And International Notes: Jays, Cubs, Red Sox

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Here is the latest news on draft and international signings as we look ahead to the July 12 deadline for Rule 4 draftees to sign. You can keep track of signings from the draft's first round right here. Only five players — Kris Bryant (Cubs), Colin Moran (Marlins), Phil Bickford (Blue Jays), Hunter Renfroe (Padres), and Aaron Judge (Yankees) — remain unsigned. As Jim Callis of Baseball America recently explained (subscription required), the changes to the draft system have sapped the signing period of its former deadline drama. Last year, for instance, only six first-rounders waited to sign until the last day, just three of those lasted until the last hour before the deadline, and only one (Mark Appel) did not end up signing.

  • Among the unsigned first-rounders, Callis tweets that he expects all to sign. While he thinks Bickford will ultimately ink with the Blue Jays, Callis does say (via Twitter) that he is the most likely of the five to pass up a deal.
  • The Jays are also angling to convince a late-round choice, such as Jake Brentz, Sam Tewes, or Rowdy Tellez, to forego college and join the organization, explains Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. Toronto has cleared about $1.3MM of bonus pool availability after locking up second-rounder Clinton Hollon for $701k under slot. Davidi says that the club is expected to sign first-rounder Bickford for close to slot value, leaving the team free to spend the rest of its cash on one of its hard-to-sign picks.
  • While Bryant remains the highest choice yet to sign, the Cubs remain confident that they will lock him up, GM Jed Hoyer told David Kaplan in a WGN Radio interview (Twitter link). Likewise, Callis opined (via Twitter) that Bryant will sign, though it may take until the deadline. 
  • Even as the Cubs finish up their draft signings, the team remains heavily involved in the international amateur market. Top overall international prospect Eloy Jimenez has yet to formally sign with Chicago despite reportedly agreeing to terms, which MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez says signals that the Cubs are paying close attention to the penalties for going over the allotted international bonuses. (Twitter link.) Concurring with MLBTR's Steve Adams' breakdown of the Cubs' international expenditures, Sanchez also provided some added background on the situation in a separate piece. 
  • We also just learned that the Jays' AL East-rival Red Sox have cleared a similar amount of cash. Callis tweets that Boston will "definitely" spend up to its slot totals and may also go into the tax penalty space up to the point of sacrificing a draft choice. 
  • The Angels are still working to sign 12th-round, high-school righty Blake Goins, tweets Callis. The club can go up to $472k before hitting any penalties, and could pay Goins as much as $621k before it would have to sacrifice a draft pick to sign him.
  • Likewise, with their available funds, Callis tweets that the Reds appear to be targeting 14th-round choice Willie Abreu. The University of Miami commit reportedly has a power bat and arm.

Matt Garza Rumors: Friday

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Earlier today, ESPN's Buster Olney said on the Baseball Tonight podcast with Jayson Stark that he'd be "shocked" if Matt Garza was on the Cubs by the All-Star break. Stark, countered by saying he's heard that the Cubs may be willing to wait until a team meets their price. Here's the latest on the right-hander…

Olney’s Latest: Biogenesis, Utley, Wilson, Garza

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In his latest column (Insider subscription required and recommended), ESPN's Buster Olney writes that Nelson Cruz is among the players whose free agent stock could be severely impacted by the Biogenesis scandal. If Cruz is cleared of any wrongdoing by that time he will be fine, but if discipline has yet to be handed out, or he receives a suspension near the end of the season, teams will be wary. Cruz's case could be further complicated if the Rangers make him a qualifying offer. Here are a few of the highlights from Olney's excellent piece…

  • The Blue Jays are looking for upgrades in their rotation and at second base, and they will be interested in Chase Utley should the Phillies make him available.
  • Former Giants closer Brian Wilson is working out in Hawaii and could pitch for teams later this month or in early August.
  • The Cubs are "making progress" in trade negotiations surrounding Matt Garza, and they're actively talking with the Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Indians and Dodgers. They may also still be involved in talks with the Orioles as well as other NL West teams.
  • Olney also spoke with his colleague Jayson Stark on today's Baseball Tonight podcast, and they discussed the impact of Biogenesis on pennant races in addition to discussing the upcoming trade deadline (Biogenesis talk begins immediately; trade discussions begin shortly after the 11:00 mark).
  • Olney said he'd be "shocked" if Garza was still on the Cubs by the All-Star break, but Stark hears that the Cubs may prefer to wait for a team to meet their price, even if it means waiting until the end of July. Stark and Olney agree that Garza will have the highest price tag of any player on the trade market.
  • The Dodgers, Rangers and Rockies are the three teams that are still in the mix on Ricky Nolasco, while the other formerly interested parties are "on the periphery" according to Stark.

Cubs Willing To Incur International Spending Penalties

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Last night, in analyzing the Cubs' international expenditures, I noted that the team is on track to face some harsh penalties due to their bulk of signings since Tuesday. If the reported figures hold true, the Cubs would face a 100 percent tax on their overage and also be unable to sign a player from next year's international class for more than $500K. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that the Cubs like this year's crop of international free agents so much, that they're willing to make that sacrifice.

Wittenmyer spoke to general manager Jed Hoyer and manager Dale Sveum about the crop of talent, with Sveum calling the international market "a whole 'nother draft." Hoyer told Wittenmyer, "We really like some of the impact talent in this year’s international class. We feel there’s both depth and premium guys."

The Cubs'  $2.8MM signing of top-ranked prospect Eloy Jimenez is not yet official, so it seems that they should still be able to acquire additional bonus slots in trades to avoid some of those penalties. Per the new CBA, teams can acquire an additional 50 percent of their initial bonus pool. That means the Cubs, who have already acquired $963K, can acquire an additional $1,315,600. They currently project to be $899K over their pool.

Matt Garza Rumors: Thursday

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Matt Garza dominated the A's in Oakland last night, firing eight innings of one-run ball on four hits and three walks with five strikeouts to drop his ERA to 3.45 (fellow trade candidate Kevin Gregg nailed down a save with a scoreless ninth as well). ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that a "dream scenario" has unfolded for the Cubs, as Garza is now the best pitcher available, and he's boosted his trade value with a hot streak. Garza has allowed just three earned runs in his past 30 innings of work. Here are Thursday's rumors on the right-hander…

  • The Red Sox were among the teams on hand to scout Garza's start last night, writes Joe Stiglich in a special contribution to ESPN Chicago. Stiglich adds that Garza — a veteran of the trading circuit — isn't letting rumors affect him. Said Garza, "[Until] my phone rings, I’m gonna plan on being a Cub and I’m gonna stay a Cub. We’ll see."
  • Gordon Wittenymyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports (free subscription required) that a dozen scouts were on hand to see Garza's start last night, and he implies that there's a possibility that it may have been Garza's last as a Cub. Wittenymyer notes that the Cubs were burned by waiting until the deadline last summer, as they had little time to navigate issues surrounding Ryan Dempster's no-trade clause and saw Garza get injured.

Prospect Rumor Roundup: 2012 Trade Deadline Review

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If you're a fan of Major League Baseball and of reading sports tickers on the television, then July is the perfect month for you. More than 20 trades occurred in July 2012 as playoff-hopeful clubs looked to position themselves for strong second halves of their seasons and robust drives for the postseason.

For just about every veteran player on the move to a contending club in July, there is a prospect or two heading back in the other direction — towards a rebuilding club desperate for a cost-controlled building block. Close to 80 players changed jerseys last July prior to the looming trade deadline at the end of the month, and the 2013 season is expected to be no different.

But just how many of those young players that changed allegiances have maintained their values with their new organizations? Below is a list of the Top 10 young players who were traded last July. Only players who had not exceeded their MLB rookie eligibilities (50 IP for pitchers, 130 AB for hitters) at the 2012 trade deadline were considered for the article, and the list is in alphabetical order.

Rob Brantly, C (Tigers to Marlins): Given the Marlins' starting catcher gig at the beginning of the 2013 season, the offensive-minded backstop's bat has wilted under the pressure, and he has a .587 OPS in 49 games. The good news is that his defense has improved noticeably — perhaps thanks to the guidance from veteran second-string receiver Jeff Mathis, an excellent defensive player, and manager Mike Redmond, a former catcher. Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel looked at Brantly's inconsistent season.

Matt Dominguez, 3B (Marlins to Astros): It's been an inconsistent season for the young third baseman — both at the plate and in the field, despite his reputation as a strong defender. Just 23, Dominguez has time on his side as he looks to breathe new life into his withering bat, but questions about his offensive abilities have been floating around since his amateur days. Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle penned a piece about Dominguez' focus on the future rather than the past.

Robbie Grossman, OF (Pirates to Astros): Grossman earned a shot at a starting outfield gig in Houston after a hot April in Triple-A. Unfortunately, he posted an OPS of just .553 and was returned to the minors after 28 games. His offensive struggles followed him back to Oklahoma City and he managed a measly .512 OPS in June.

Johnny Hellweg, SP (Angels to Brewers): Hellweg's raw ability is undeniable but command and control issues have haunted him throughout his pro career. Tall pitchers are considered late bloomers in those areas, and the 6'9'' right-handed hurler definitely fits into that category. He recently received his first big league promotion, but he was roughed up during his first two appearances in The Show. Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Journal Sentinel spoke to the rookie, as well as his manager, after his first outing.

Tommy Joseph, C (Giants to Phillies): Joseph has experienced a major setback with the bat in 2013. After beginning the year in Triple-A, he hit just .209 before a concussion knocked him out of action. Now healthy again, Joseph is getting back into playing shape while at the A-ball level. The struggles and injury helped to ensure that he missed an opportunity to fill in at the big league level when both Carlos Ruiz and Erik Kratz went down in Philadelphia. Jeff Schuler of The Morning Call wrote a piece on Joseph's return from the disabled list.

Jean Segura, SS (Angels to Brewers): Perhaps the biggest success story on this list, Segura is currently in the hunt for a batting title in the National League. He also has surprising pop and an outside chance at eventually becoming a 20-20 (HR-SB) hitter. Originally a second baseman, the sturdy but diminutive hitter was relocated to the left side of the infield, but it remains to be seen how long he'll stick there. Either way, he could be a mainstay in the middle of the diamond for years to come. Mike Woods of the Sheboygan Press recently spoke to Segura who admitted to being surprised by his success in 2013.

Jacob Turner, SP (Tigers to Marlins): Turner's value has taken a hit over the past year or two as his stuff has regressed. Scouting forecasts focus more on the ceiling of a No. 3 or 4 starter now, rather than that of the No. 1 or 2 starter ceiling from the early days of his pro career. Despite that, Turner has had an excellent start to the 2013 season at the big league level by posting a 1.76 ERA and holding hitters to a .229 batting average in six starts.

Christian Villanueva, 3B (Rangers to Cubs): The emergence of Mike Olt in the Rangers system made Villanueva expendable. The Cubs third baseman has the chance to develop into a multifaceted player, albeit one without any true standout tool. He's showing solid gap power at the Double-A level but both his batting average and his on-base percentage are down in 2013.

Arodys Vizcaino, SP (Braves to Cubs): Vizcaino, 22, hasn't pitched since 2011, but he's been the property of three organizations thanks to his power arm. The right-hander injured his elbow early on in his career with the Yankees and finally underwent Tommy John surgery, missing all of the 2012 season. He looked ready to return in 2013 before undergoing a second surgery on his throwing elbow.

Asher Wojciechowski, SP (Blue Jays to Astros): One of the most unheralded acquisitions of 2012, Wojciechowski was a supplemental first round selection from the 2010 amateur draft. He didn't respond well at all when the Jays attempted to rework his delivery and his results suffered. He has rediscovered his prospect value with the Astros, although inconsistency continues to haunt him. It remains to be seen if his future lies in the starting rotation or the bullpen.

Honorable Mentions: Colton Cain, SP (Pirates to Astros); Kevin Comer, SP (Blue Jays to Astros); Kyle Hendricks, SP (Rangers to Cubs); Marc Krauss, OF (Diamondbacks to Astros); Ethan Martin, SP (Dodgers to Phillies); Carlos Perez, C (Blue Jays to Astros); David Rollins, SP (Blue Jays to Astros).

2012 Trade Deadline Winners: Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers

2012 Trade Deadline Losers: Los Angeles Angels, Toronto Blue Jays

Analyzing The Cubs’ International Expenditures

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The Cubs have been extremely active on the international free agent market in the past two days, signing Gleyber Torres ($1.7MM), Jefferson Mejia ($850K), Erling Moreno ($650K), Johan Matos ($270K) and reaching agreement with Eloy Jimenez ($2.8MM). If those figures are accurate, the Cubs have $6.27MM in international expenditure.

As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes noted yesterday (Twitter link), the Cubs began the international free agency period with a bonus pool of $4,557,200. They acquired an additional $388,100 in the Scott Feldman trade with the Orioles and $784,700 from the Astros in the Ronald Torreyes trade before sending $209,700 to the Dodgers in the Carlos Marmol swap. All told, they gained an additional $963K in bonus space.

That total brought their bonus pool to $5,520,300 — which is a significant ways short of the $6.27MM they've spent following the Jimenez signing.That would mean the Cubs are over their allotted bonus pool by $749,700 — an overage of 13.6 percent. Baseball America's Ben Badler reported back in April that the penalty for exceeding a bonus pool by 10-15 percent would be a 100 percent tax on the overage as well as the inability to sign a player for more than $500K in next year's signing period.  The penalty for exceeding the pool by 15% or more is a 100 percent tax on the overage and a $250K per player limit next year.

If the reported signing bonuses aren't 100 percent accurate, the Cubs could be less than 10 percent over. However, barring a significant inaccuracy, they would still fall into the 5-10 percent overage bracket, which would prevent them from signing a player for more than $500K in 2014-15 but require only a 75 percent overage tax.

The other thing to consider is that the Jimenez deal isn't official as of yet. It could be possible for the Cubs to acquire additional bonus money in trades, as they haven't technically spent the $2.8MM on Jimenez.

Per the new CBA, teams are allowed to acquire up to 50 percent of their initial bonus pool. That would be a total of $2,278,600 for the Cubs, meaning they can still acquire an additional $1,315,600. That would be enough to cover the remaining difference and keep the Cubs from incurring limitations on next year's spending.

Cubs Designate Shawn Camp For Assignment

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The Cubs have designated right-hander Shawn Camp for assignment and optioned Chris Rusin to Triple-A Iowa to clear roster space for Matt Guerrier and Pedro Strop, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (on Twitter).

Camp, 37, re-signed with the Cubs on a one-year deal worth $1.35MM plus another $200K in incentives this offseason. He appeared in an NL-leading 80 games for the Cubs in 2012, pitching to a 3.59 ERA with 6.3 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 77 2/3 innings. This season has been another story entirely, however, as he's posted a sky-high 7.04 ERA with 5.1 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9.

Both Guerrier and Strop were acquired in trades yesterday. Guerrier was acquired in a swap for Carlos Marmol, while Strop came to the Cubs as part of the return for Scott Feldman.

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