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Cubs Make Offer To Lilly

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Cubs GM Jim Hendry has extended an offer to southpaw starter Ted Lilly.  The Cubs still have to deal with competition from several other clubs, but they’re serious about Lilly.

I know Lilly is one of the better Tier 2 guys out there, but he seems like a bad fit for the Cubs.  They should be searching for a durable innings eater, something Lilly is not.  The vet has dealt with all sorts of shoulder injuries after his 1999 surgery.  His career high in innings is 197, set in 2004.  I’m also unsure whether the Cubs should be acquiring a flyball pitcher given a home park that inflates home runs by 18%.

Market For Ted Lilly Develops

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Ted Lilly is looking for a four-year deal at close to $40MM.  It’d be tough to hand that contract to a guy with his injury history, but five teams are said to have serious interest.

There are two mystery teams, one from each league, in addition to the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Cubs.  The NL club could be the Giants.  But how about the Mets?  They have plenty of competition for Barry Zito, and Lilly might be the best remaining southpaw starter.

The AL club could be (pure speculation) the Orioles, Royals, Mariners, or Rangers.

My money is on the Cubs, as the Blue Jays seem to be more into Gil Meche and the Yankees don’t seem thrilled with Lilly.

Crasnick: Cubs Make Offer To Lugo

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A rumor from yesterday that I neglected to mention: ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported that the Cubs have made Julio Lugo a multi-year offer.

We all know how Lou Piniella loves Lugo, and that he’d be willing to play center field now that the market for shortstops is shrinking.  Today’s Chicago newspapers – the Tribune, Sun-Times, Daily Herald, and Southtown – made no mention of an offer to Lugo.

Pitchers on the move

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Jason Schmidt has been offered $45 million over three years to join the Cubs.  If that offer has been leaked already, $60M/4 seems within the realm of possibility.  Strangely, Schmidt has already said he’s not interested in the East Coast–you’d think he’d wait until Cashman made an offer and drove up his price before saying no.  Once Schmidt signs, it’ll be fun to watch Scott Boras conduct the sure-to-be-insane bidding for Barry Zito.

Some team (to be announced tonight) won the bidding for Kei Igawa for $25 million.  Hanshin has accepted.  That’s the second largest posting fee ever–somebody must think Igawa is pretty good, definitely on the high side of the typical #3/#4 projection he’s gotten.  I’m guessing it’s not the Cubs, or we wouldn’t be hearing so much about the other pitchers they’re after.  That leaves plenty of other possibilities, though.

The Baltimore Orioles are continuing their quest to build the most expensive bullpen of all time: Chad Bradford is close to a three-year deal with them.  Anybody think it’s a little odd that the O’s traded Chris Britton for a reclamation project and are now probably spending about $8M a year for Bradford and Danys Baez?  (Odd?  Yes.  In character? Absolutely.)

And, this just in: the O’s are also adding Scott Williamson.  He’s cheap–only $900K for the year.  Oddly enough, he could be the best of their new additions.  I’m a little surprised nobody else was willing to go higher for him on a one-year deal.

Many of you have emailed me about a possible Angels-White Sox trade involving Ervin Santana and Chone Figgins for Freddy Garcia and Joe Crede.   As Rotoworld points out, this could be a recycled rumor; regardless, Kenny Williams says no.  And there’s no way Bill Stoneman deals Santana for Garcia without getting a lot more in return.  Five years of a good pitcher under the team’s control for one year of Garcia?  Right.

By Jeff Sackmann

Manny on the move?

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For real, this time!  Or not.

First off, Buster Olney thinks that Manny could be moved this week.  Maybe for a less-than-perfect package.  The team that keeps coming up is the Giants, but…how?  I can’t imagine the Red Sox would be very interested in the Bay Area chapter of the AARP.

I’ve heard speculation that the Giants rumors persist because the Red Sox want to up the bidding from the Dodgers, but I haven’t seen or heard any details about that deal.  I’d imagine it would include either James Loney or Andre Ethier, as one of those guys would end up on the bench if Manny came to L.A.  (And, of course, the Red Sox would want something of quality in return.)

A Cubs source e-mailed that Chicago has offered Matt Murton, Bob Howry, Sean Gallagher and Donald Veal, and that Felix Pie hasn’t come up.  That sounds like not quite enough, but if the Red Sox trade Manny, then turn around and sign J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo, the need for impact-quality major-league talent (say, Michael Young) is lessened.  The same source indicates that the Mets and Braves are also interested.

Olney says, "you get the sense that the Red Sox are increasingly comfortable with the idea of moving Ramirez even if they aren’t offered a perfect package in return."  If that’s true, it seems that the likelihood of a deal getting done is higher than ever.  If Drew is ready to sign with the Red Sox, teams that want a big bat have very few options, and most of them are expensive.  Manny’s contract has never looked better, and if the Red Sox aren’t asking for the moon, a trade looks very realistic.

By Jeff Sackmann

Roberts to the Giants, and more

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It looks like Dave Roberts is going to be a Giant.  This will save San Francisco fans from self-immolation over their front office’s apparent inability to make stupid deals, and ensure that the Giants theme of "oldsters in the outfield" remains intact even with Steve Finley and possibly Barry Bonds on their way out.

In other news: Woody Williams got a two-year deal with the Astros for $12.5M.  That seems remarkably sane, though I wouldn’t plan on drafting Woody for your fantasy team.  He had an okay year in Petco, but he’s moving to one of the unfriendliest parks in baseball for pitching.  If the short porch in left is going to do wonders for Carlos Lee, it’s going to hurt Williams nearly as much.

Phil Rogers offers a plethora of random thoughts: the Cubs want to move Jacque Jones; Jones or Geoff Jenkins would be an improvement for the White Sox (so he says); and the Sox could send Scott Podsednik and Juan Uribe to San Fran for Omar Vizquel (much less likely after the Roberts signing, I’d imagine).  Emphasis on "could": he’s obviously just making stuff up. 

Speaking of making stuff up: now that most of the center fielders out there have found homes, it’s time for the second basemen to start falling into place.  There’s been more news lately of Adam Kennedy, who is likely to land in St. Louis, or possibly Toronto.  The market for Kennedy, Ronnie Belliard, and others may depend on whether Julio Lugo and/or Ray Durham end up as outfielders, which would shrink the market for those teams who need second basemen.

By Jeff Sackmann

Thoughts On The Soriano Deal

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Hi everyone, Tim here.  I thought I would check in briefly on this little contract that the Cubs have extended to Mr. Soriano.  I just can’t resist.  The wedding yesterday was perfect; we’re jetting off to Cancun on Tuesday.  I am a lucky man.  The lovely Mrs. Dierkes is all tuckered out after the big weekend, so here are some random thoughts.

From a Cubs fan point of view: I love the Alfonso Soriano signing.  As fans often say to justify insane contracts: "It’s not my money; I just want to win."  I agree with that philosophy.  The Yankees might take some heat for the way they throw around cash, but I think that’s rooted in jealousy.  One has to think Red Sox fans will back off on the Evil Empire stuff now that their team just bid $51.1 mil to talk to a pitcher.  Fans just want to win, right now.  Doesn’t matter if Soriano is a $17MM bench warmer in 2014. 

I don’t think anyone can believe it took eight years, though.  Six, for sure.  We figured the seventh year from someone might be the clincher.  But eight?  No one saw this coming.  But is this the worst contract ever, or whatever various blogs are claiming?  Of course not.  Todd Helton?  Even Darren Dreifort?  This is not the worst contract ever or anything close to that.  This is an athletic player who will probably age well.  Soriano has proven quite durable, and he’s not anchored to first base.  This is premium offense for a position where a .440 SLG is above average.

Is Soriano one of those players who learns to take a walk as he enters his early 30s?  The Cubs are rolling the dice on that one.  A player doesn’t nearly double his walk rate by accident, true, but one season doesn’t necessarily indicate a trend.  If Soriano throws up a .310 OBP for the Cubs in 2007, well, this deal will look considerably worse.  We just don’t know yet.

The second gamble for the Cubs is that Soriano can play a decent center field.  I think he can.  The tools are there; he should be above average by 2008.  Of course, I’m no scout, but it’s not like someone is wishcasting Carlos Lee as a CF. 

Is the money really that crazy?  I don’t think so.  Soriano may not be "worth it," but the supply of 40 HR center fielders consisted of only him.  The demand was huge, the dollars and desperation were there.  Comparing this to the Beltran and Guerrero contracts is silly.  To do so implies that the market has remained the same for three years.  What?  Come on now.  We all thought Derek Lowe at four years, $36MM was absurd.  All of us except Paul DePodesta.  Pitching exploded and it’s a bargain now.  Manny’s contract is looking OK now.  Soriano will never be a bargain.  But Andruw Jones could snag a contract next year at, say, $175MM over eight years.  Baseball is changing.

For once in this Cubs fan’s life, the team appears to be pulling a 1997 Marlins: just going for broke.  Better living through free agency.  It’s not a brilliant plan, and it’s not an efficient way to build a long-term winner.  And yes, desperation is a large factor.  But there’s no going back; the Cubs should drop another $15-18MM for two solid starters.

Bartman, the goat, Prior/Wood/Sammy – this crap is over.  Maybe Derrek Lee’s wrist, Aramis Ramirez’s "laziness", Soriano’s OBP, and Zambrano’s wildness will converge next year to make the Cubs a pricey 80 win team.  But even so, at least we can say for once that the Cubs are trying.  To quote Gammons:

"Admit it: The game is always healthier when the Cubs are good, and in a week they have made themselves a whole lot better."

Go nuts, folks

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Alfonso Soriano.  Eight years.  $135 million.  Chicago Cubs.   Rosenthal has the scoop, though he doesn’t explicitly say that the Cubs are going to give him that money, just that that’s what he’s after.

As a Brewers fan, I’m thrilled that Hendry is blowing his wad on Sori.  Could be a great Cubs offense for a couple of years, but that can’t leave a whole lot to patch other holes.

UPDATE: It’s a little more official, and a little more expensive.

By Jeff Sackmann

Kei Igawa Has Been Posted

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Rotoworld lists the potential suitors for Kei Igawa as the "Padres, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, Mets, Cubs and Indians."  They rule out the Red Sox and Mariners, though this Tacoma News-Tribune article says the M’s are "likely" to bid.  That same article predicts that the posting fee will be about "two-thirds less" than Daisuke Matsuzaka’s $51.1M: $17M. 

That seems high for a guy who David Wright isn’t convinced has MLB-quality stuff.  Personally, I wouldn’t want my team spending more than $10M for his rights, but with all those teams involved, $17M seems plausible.

UPDATE: An alert e-mailer points out this article on the Braves official site.  According to club officials, Atlanta won’t be involved in this one.

By Jeff Sackmann

Michael Barrett On The Block?

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Here’s an interesting tidbit buried in a Giants notes column: the Cubs "reportedly are open to the idea of trading catcher Michael Barrett for pitching help."  I can’t imagine they’ll part with Barrett cheaply, but does that mean they are willing to go with Henry Blanco and, say, Geovany Soto behind the plate?

One thing is for sure: there isn’t much available on the free-agent market.  I suppose that if Barrett brought a decent return, a Mike Piazza-Blanco offense-defense platoon might make some sense for the Cubs; beyond that, the options are a bunch of guys who will cost more than Barrett (last year of a $12M/3y deal) and produce less.

By Jeff Sackmann

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