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Cubs Close To Signing Jason Marquis

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The St. Louis Post-Dispatch confirmed a rumor Bruce Levine first reported yesterday – that Jason Marquis is close to signing with the Cubs.

It’s easy to look at Marquis’s 6.02 ERA and question why any team would give him a million or three to pitch next year.  However, it should be noted that Tony La Russa left Marquis in to save the bullpen on two occasions – June 21 against the White Sox (13 ER in 5 IP) and July 18th against the Braves (12 ER in 5 IP).  Let’s take those two starts out, for the sake of argument.

With two slaughter starts included: 6.02 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 10.2 H/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.28 K/BB

With two slaughter starts removed: 5.13 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, 4.4 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.24 K/BB

Alright, that experiment still shows that Marquis had an awful year.  But at least it was somewhat less awful than it looked.  Think Steve Trachsel/Jamey Wright territory, with Miguel Batista upside. 

We can see that compared 2005, Marquis’s HR prevention and control worsened a bit (although not terribly so).  The biggest difference was a groundball percentage that dropped from 52% to 43%.  He needs to get the sink back – Cesar Izturis can do the rest.

Marquis isn’t a great pitcher.  His strikeout rate is dangerously low.  But he could be good for 200 innings and a 4.50 ERA – I think there’s at least a 50% chance of that.  4.49 was the National League average ERA in 2006.  It’s a gamble that’s worth the $3MM he’ll probably want.

Time To Think About Carlos Zambrano

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By waiting until after the season to work out an extension for third baseman Aramis Ramirez, the Cubs probably cost themselves millions of dollars.  Luckily, they still got him for less than the going rate in the end.

Surely Jim Hendry and Co. are wary of a similar scenario occurring with staff ace Carlos Zambrano.  Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune writes:

"Talks have yet to begin on Zambrano’s extension, and probably won’t get serious until the start of spring training if the past is any indication."

While some feel that Zambrano’s price rose to over $100 million because of recent free agent signings, I would counter that it was $100 million all along.  Compare Zambrano to Barry Zito as the Tribune did.

1. Zambrano is a full three years younger than Zito.
2. Zito has six straight seasons of 200+ innings; Zambrano has four.
3. In their careers, Zambrano has been tougher to hit, better at home run prevention, and has a significantly better strikeout rate.
4. In peripheral stats, Zito’s only advantage is mildly better control.

Say for the sake of argument that Zito gets six years, $100MM.  In my mind that makes Zambrano in line for at least a seven year, $130MM deal.  That would be $18.5MM annually.  Barry Rozner of the Daily Herald even suggests Zambrano could be a $20MM player. 

Perhaps the Cubs should move to sign Zambrano before Zito signs, as Zito’s contract could be a point of reference for agent Barry Praver.  At least Jim Hendry can be relieved that Zambrano fired Scott Boras at the beginning of this year.

Cubs Minor Dealings

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Today the Cubs selected busted prospect Josh Hamilton in the Rule 5 draft and shipped him to the Reds for cash.

A deal with Daryle Ward to bolster the bench is close.

The Cubs are still talking to Cliff Floyd’s agent.  Last night it was said that they had requested medical records.

Bruce Levine of ESPN Radio 1000 reports that a signing of pitcher Jason Marquis may be near.

Cubs Still Pursuing Gil Meche

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Jim Hendry said all along he wanted to acquire two, or even three starters this winter.  True to his word, the Cubs are still pursuing Gil Meche after inking Ted Lilly.  (By the way, Hendry is said to be fine and should be out of the hospital Thursday morning).

Keep in mind that Alfonso Soriano’s contract is backloaded.  Sori makes only $9MM in 2007, meaning the Cubs still have money to burn for Meche (note: I am unsure how Sori’s $8MM signing bonus is paid out).  Hendry would probably have no problem tossing another $5MM to Cliff Floyd for old times’ sake, too.  Hell, maybe the Cubs even go out and sign a third free agent starter to really cover themselves.  It’s not like Lilly and Meche are horses.

Additionally, CubDumb spoke to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune today.  Seems that the Cubs were going to get Lilly, no matter what it took.   

Cubs Sign Ted Lilly

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Ken Rosenthal reports that the Cubs have signed southpaw Ted Lilly to a four-year, $40MM contract.  Lilly will turn 31 in January.  The Cubs’ rotation now looks something like this:

Carlos Zambrano
Ted Lilly
Rich Hill
New Guy
Mark Prior/Wade Miller

The price isn’t too bad; I thought Lilly could’ve snagged as much as $12MM annually if he waited longer. 

A month ago I had a full writeup of Lilly here at MLBTradeRumors.  Check it out.

Rockies/Cubs/Pirates Three-Way?

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Calm down, this is a family trade rumor site.  I am referring to Steve Phillip’s latest, found via RotoWorld.

The idea: Jason Jennings to the Cubs; Jacque Jones, Carlos Marmol, Paul Maholm to the Rockies; Brad Hawpe to the Pirates.

If this one is legit, Dan O’Dowd lied to Brad Hawpe’s agent.

Rogers: Cubs After Lofton

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According to Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune, the Cubs are "working to sign" Kenny Lofton to play center field.  Rogers was quoting a Major League source in the article.

Should Julio Lugo opt for the Mets or Red Sox, the Cubs are basically left with Lofton as the only reasonable free agent center fielder.  The backup plan appears to be using Alfonso Soriano there.

I think Lofton is a fine idea for the Cubs; I thought so last year too.  You get a decent OBP on a one-year deal.  Lofton’s defense doesn’t impress at this point, and 130 games is a stretch, but it’s a smart low-risk move.  The oft-touted Felix Pie will be 22 next season; he could learn as Lofton’s backup and won’t be blocked when he’s ready.

There’s also a nostalgia factor – Lofton played center for the Cubs when they last had a decent team in 2003.

Importing a center fielder would make Matt Murton or Jacque Jones the odd man out.  With Murton playing for cheap and posting a .319/.390/.522 second half, it would be hard to part with him. 

If the Cubs were to attempt to find a CF via trade, here are some possibilities:  Rocco Baldelli, Eric Byrnes, Ryan Freel, Aaron Rowand, Willy Taveras, or Reggie Willits.

UPDATE:  The link above is dead; it’s been replaced with this one.  There is no mention of Lofton in it, for some reason.

In addition, this article from MLB.com says that Jim Hendry has yet to meet with Ted Lilly’s agent and does not intend to trade Murton.  The idea of moving Jones to center is mentioned.

Jacque Jones For Jason Jennings?

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Ken Rosenthal reports that the Cubs have discussed a trade with the Rockies: Jacque Jones for Jason Jennings.  The Rox would then spin off Jones in another deal.

While I am not a huge fan of Jennings (I project his ERA at 4.62 next year), this would be a fine move for the Cubs if complemented by a Julio Lugo signing.  At the least Jennings would be likely to eat up 200 innings and go deep into games. 

My guess is that Jim Hendry would need to include another player to make this work, given the scarcity of decent cheap pitching.  It’s a good time to trade Jones, who has two years left on his deal for just $9MM total.  He had his best season since 2002 last year.

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