Alfonso Soriano Trade Possibilities
Ken Rosenthal’s latest article mentions that a trade of Alfonso Soriano could happen, but Nationals are more likely to offer Soriano a long-term deal to convince him to become an outfielder. I don’t doubt Rosenthal, but let’s take a look at some possible suitors for the second baseman. I’ll assume that a trade signifies no position change.
First off, let’s narrow the field by looking at which teams lack an established 2B.
Blue Jays – Looks like Aaron Hill is the man at second base for 2006, and he’s a fairly solid hitter already. Plus, Soriano probably isn’t Ricciardi’s type of player.
Mariners – Jose Lopez will get the nod entering this season, and he slugged .505 during a couple of stints at Triple A. Giving him a full-time shot makes way more sense than trading for Soriano.
Marlins – Obviously the Fish aren’t dealing for Sori.
Mets – The Mets have made all sorts of splashes this winter, and adding a 2B isn’t top priority. They’d like to cut their losses with Matsui, but Jeff Keppinger and Anderson Hernandez are viable in-house candidates.
Cubs – The Cubs have a three-headed monster at second base, and Soriano probably doesn’t fit into the budget at $12MM+ over several years. The Cubs have a tradition of free swinging, and I could see Hendry trying this for 2006 if A)The Nationals win their arbitration case and/or eat some salary and B)the price is low.
Cardinals – St. Louis seems content with a battle between Junior Spivey and Aaron Miles for the 2B job. Plus, Soriano doesn’t seem like the typical St. Louis team player.
Padres – They’re going to let Mark Bellhorn, Eric Young, and Josh Barfield have a crack at 2B. Plus, I can’t see how Soriano would fit into the budget.
Of course, the Nationals already had an established 2B when they traded for Soriano, so maybe this isn’t the best guide. Rosenthal’s suggestion that Soriano will stay put is entirely logical once you break down the potential trade partners. If a deal was struck, it’d mostly be a salary dump and I think the only teams with mild interest would be the Cubs and Mets. Just my opinion.
Recruiting Writers For New Cubs Blog
Well, the time has come. This website is bursting at the seams with Cubs fans who need another outlet for their Cub-centric minds. A place where it’s OK to argue about Matt Murton‘s HOF chances. A place where it’s acceptable to profess your undying love for Joe Kmak. A website where Cubs fans can congregate before, during, and after every game. An outlet where the wackiest, most lopsided Cubs trade proposals are tolerated.
AllCubs.com should be live within a couple of weeks. It’ll be a full-service Cubs blog, with perhaps dozens of established, unique, Cub-savvy authors chiming in on every topic imaginable. It’ll be a place for Cubs fans to check three times daily and spend even more hours debating Cubs issues when you’re supposed to be working.
The bottom line is that I’m going to recruit writers for this blog for the next couple of weeks. I’ll probably cap it at a dozen authors. I can’t pay you for your efforts, as I have no idea if this blog can even bring in a couple of bucks a month. Here’s what I’m looking for:
– Strong writing background. Journalism or English majors preferred. Impeccable grammar and spelling are required. Blogging experience a plus but not at all required.
– Ability to make at least three posts per week.
– In-depth Cubs knowledge and commitment.
– Ability to select and cover the hell out of a Cubs-related niche. For example, maybe you want to be the Ballpark Guy (or gal!), who simply focuses on Wrigley Field itself. Maybe you’re the contracts, stats, scouting, humorous, or depressing person. I want to cover this ballclub from every angle, and diverse viewpoints are what will make this blog stand out and attract readers.
– Love for the Cubs is all well and good, but I’m not looking for writers blinded by their Cub obsession. Optimism is fine, I’m not looking for someone who thinks Ronny Cedeno is the next A-Rod. Or that Kerry Wood is a lock for 230 innings. Cubs bias will come with the territory, but you have to have a sense of reality too.
– Current or former employment with the ballclub would be a plus. Peanut vendors, retired sportswriters, and Shawon Dunston himself could all provide their own unique viewpoints developed during their time spent with the Cubs.
– Writers living close to minor league affiliates (Iowa, for example) could be a great asset to the site. Somebody’s gotta get the scoop on Kerry Wood‘s latest rehab assignment.
– An eagerness to help AllCubs become the best Cubs blog out there. That might mean chasing down Brian Dopirak for an interview in Daytona, or just telling everyone in your office to check out the site. I want this thing to be huge, but I need your help.
If what I just described reads like your resume, email me at allcubs@gmail.com and make your case. I’m guessing we’ll get around 100 applicants, so I’ve created an email address just for this purpose. Please don’t inquire about it at my regular email address; I won’t reply to those. That’s all; this should be a lot of fun and I can’t wait to get the site rolling.
Trade Candidates Part 1
With the hot stove not all that hot at the moment, I thought I’d run down some guys who could be traded between now and July 31st in an attempt to peer into the future. Part 1 of the series will focus on some of the players in their contract year.
Barry Bonds is unlikely to be dealt, given that the Giants have pinned most of their offensive hopes on him. But if, for some reason, the team is out of contention in July and Bonds is looking more awful than usual in the field, a deal to the AL could be in the cards. Adding Bonds at DH could mean 4-5 extra wins in the second half alone, so I’d expect a big bounty even with his $18MM salary and impending free agency.
We’re all pretty much assuming Jose Contreras will be dealt. Some say it’d be most prudent for the Sox to wait til spring training and take stock before sending him off to the Mets, Phillies, or wherever else. On the other hand, if there was ever a time to sell high, it’s right now.
One name I haven’t seen thrown about in trade rumors at all is Greg Maddux. I assume it’s because he’s over 40 and makes $9MM in 2006, but Mad Dog could be a big help to a contender at the deadline. I’ve projected a 3.84 ERA and 1.21 WHIP; he’s got plenty left. Even if the Cubs had to eat a few mil, it’d make more sense to trade Maddux than Jerome Williams. If the health of Wood, Prior, and Miller works out in their favor the Cubs could have a surplus.
Jason Marquis is projected to post a 4.43 ERA in 200 innings. He’d be serviceable as rental for the season, and he’s still on the right side of 30. I’m not sure which teams will be chomping at the bit to give him the three year, $21MM extension he’ll require, but someone will.
Mark Mulder is also under 30, though he’s shown some ugly trends over the past three seasons. It’ll be interesting to see how Walt Jocketty views Mulder – perhaps Mulder will take the St. Louis discount to keep that top-notch defense behind him?
It seems that Andy Pettitte wouldn’t be dealt by the Astros midseason pretty much no matter what. Even when the Astros have been counted out they’ve made the playoffs, so it’d be impossible to justify trading Pettitte to the fanbase.
I’m fairly certain the Cubs will sign Juan Pierre to a long-term deal. Especially if he hits .309 as projected and impresses the old hands with his bunting skills and work ethic. Politically, Jim Hendry almost has to keep Pierre around in case one of the three pitchers sent to Florida pans out.
Jason Schmidt could be a hot commodity, but, like Bonds, is a long shot to be dealt. I think the Giants would look for a young bat in return.
More impending free agents and trade candidates to come…
Piazza And Cubs A Match?
Surprising bit of info out of the Philadelphia Inquirer this morning courtesy of Todd Zolecki. According to the article:
"The Phillies have talked with free-agent catcher Mike Piazza about a possible contract, a baseball source said, but it seems Piazza might have better options with the San Diego Padres or Chicago Cubs. Piazza could make a decision before the end of the week."
The extent of Jim Hendry’s talks, if any, with Piazza’s agent (Dan Lozano) is unknown currently. For what it’s worth, Lozano also represents Jacque Jones.
My thoughts on this: if it was for $4MM or so for a year, the Cubs should bring Piazza aboard and worry about his role later. Hendry did the same with Todd Walker a couple of years ago because the price was right. Maybe Piazza spells Derrek Lee at first for ten games, DHs in interleague games, and catches 40 times. Piazza’s three-year splits don’t really indicate a big platoon advantage, so it would likely just be a matter of working him into the lineup whenever possible.
I’m poking around to try to find some more information and determine whether the Cubs are seriously considering Piazza.
UPDATE: The Tribune’s Dave van Dyck debunked the Piazza rumor today:
"Cubs general manager Jim Hendry was surprised at the report, admitting he had jokingly said to Piazza’s agent that he could use a pinch-hitter like the future Hall of Famer, but that ‘I think he can get a better job than that.’"
Cubs Sign Wade Miller
Jim Hendry took a nice low-risk gamble today, inking Wade Miller to a one-year pact for $1MM. He can reach $2MM with incentives.
Miller gutted his way through 91 innings in 2005 for the Red Sox, posting a 4.95 ERA. Miller had the dreaded labrum surgery on his shoulder in late September 2005.
UPDATE: First, a few notes on labrum tear survivors. Chris Carpenter and Jose Valverde are the best examples, and Carpenter sat out almost two years. Valverde still hasn’t matched his per-surgery velocity. Six months is a general guideline for a pitcher to resume activity. (Tip of the cap to Will Carroll for the info).
Also, Wade Miller and his agent Bob Garber were on WGN’s Sports Central with Dave Kaplan tonight. Miller had many teams inquire, but all of them required an option for a second year or just a non-roster invite. Hendry pushed for the option at first as well. Garber indicated that Miller never considered accepting anything but a one-year deal with no option. The interested parties came down to the Cubs and Mariners, and the Cubs were Miller’s preference all along (or so he says).
Miller has already begun throwing at 60 feet, and he plans to join the Cubs’ rotation by mid-May. I’m paraphrasing here, but Garber and Miller seemed entirely confident that Miller is considered a lock for a rotation spot upon his Cubs debut. Obviously the Cubs will have too many starters on their hands, but it sure beats throwing John Koronka and Sergio Mitre to the wolves.
White Sox Never Pursued Prior
I spoke to my White Sox source today, and he was able to offer up a little bit of information.
Remember this tantalizing tidbit from Gordon Edes’s January 15th article for the Boston Globe?
"Would you believe that the White Sox were hovering on the fringes of the Tejada trade talks, not because of any interest in Tejada but in the hopes that if the Orioles peddled him to the Chicago Cubs for ace Mark Prior, they would have been willing to flip Prior to the crosstown White Sox in a package?"
Not so, according to my source. The White Sox never had designs to acquire Prior, but they truly did make various offers for Miguel Tejada.
He also told me that there hasn’t been any hot stove buzz lately involving a Jose Contreras trade, contrary to published reports.
Carlos Zambrano Fires Boras
According to ESPN 1000 out of Chicago, Carlos Zambrano has fired agent Scott Boras. His new agent is unknown. Zambrano has pitched 3.5 excellent seasons and made $3.76MM in 2005 according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. He’ll be part of the free agent class after the 2007 season. That group also includes Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, and Roy Oswalt.
Also, WSCR 670 and ESPN 1000 are reporting that the White Sox have signed Joe Crede to a one-year contract for $2.675MM. Crede has a career line of .255/.303/.439 and plays top-notch defense. He earned $400,000 in 2005. Third basemen in his free agent class will include Brandon Inge, Eric Hinske, and Bill Mueller.
Jeff Weaver: Last Man Standing
I ranked Jeff Weaver 18th overall on my Top 50 Free Agents for 2006, and he’s easily the best remaining starting pitcher (Roger Clemens aside). After Weaver the dropoff is huge – it’s Kevin Brown or Lima Time. Kind of remains me of this, a memory I’ve been trying to repress for ten years.
For a while it seemed like Weaver was being strangely undervalued in the market. He’s a very dependable starter and he’s still 29. He’s thrown 444 innings over the past two seasons with the Dodgers, compiling a 4.11 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 6.3 K/9 during that span.
Ken Rosenthal cleared this muddy picture for us yesterday after speaking with Weaver’s agent, Scott Boras. We now know that Weaver hadn’t actually hit the market until now. Boras delayed Weaver’s release date to give the Dodgers first crack at him. It seems that a three-year contract with an option would’ve gotten the job done, but it might take four years at this point.
Last week, Weaver was looking like a potential free agent bargain in the vein of Kevin Millwood last year for the Indians. If nobody wanted to give him three years and $30MM (or whatever), he’d just take a one-year, $8MM deal or something. However, what this potential bargain has taken a 180. It’s fairly obvious that once a ton of people want something, it becomes overvalued. Such will be the case with Weaver, who has eight teams after him.
Rosenthal’s speculation on that front: the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Orioles. Let’s expand on that and try to nail the possibilities.
Orioles – Given Weaver’s recent durability, we know Peter Angelos’s injury hangups probably won’t come into play here. And let’s not rule out the ballclub just because Angelos and Boras aren’t best buddies. The club talks to all agents and is a good fit for Weaver.
Red Sox – I can’t help but doubt the Sox want to bring Weaver back into the AL East. His 5.99 ERA with the Yankees in ’03 looms large.
Tigers – No one seems to think the Tigers would bring Weaver back. Their rotation is pretty much set anyway.
Angels – Maybe he’d love to play with his brother Jered one day, et cetera et cetera. This is cited as a pretty big reason for the Angels to be in play, but a lot of us thought the Braves would end up with Brian Giles for the same reason. According to Bill Stoneman, signing Weaver is "not a likely thing."
Mets – Sure, why not? Pedro, Glavine, Weaver, Benson, Trachsel. You could do worse.
Phillies – Let’s see how this rotation looks so far: Lieber, Lidle, Madson, Myers, Ryan Franklin. I think they’re set, especially with a few options in-house for replacements.
Nationals – It’s looking like they’re going with John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, Brian Lawrence, and Tony Armas. Ryan Drese is floating around as well. I know they’re mentioned as a main suitor, but I don’t see it.
Cubs – Certainly seems like a legit possibility. No Boras reservations. Possible rotation: Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, Wood, Jerome Williams. Not counting on Wood probably means Glendon Rusch or Rich Hill though. Despite the surplus, the Cubs have been making noise about adding another starter. Perhaps Williams would be dealt (although this seems like an unwise course of action to me).
Astros – Weaver would definitely solidify things and relieve their dependency on Roger Clemens.
Cardinals – They will be going with Carpenter, Mulder, Suppan, Marquis, and Reyes in the rotation. If Marquis is traded and Ponson does not take his spot, it would make sense to add Weaver to the mix. After all, Jocketty has pursued Javier Vazquez, Matt Morris, and A.J. Burnett this winter. Perhaps the Cardinal faithful can tell us whether he’d fit into the payroll.
Diamondbacks – No plans to pursue Weaver, according to Josh Byrnes.
I think that pretty much sums it up. In order of likelihood, Orioles, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Astros, Angels. Just my best guess. I’d like to hear your thoughts in the comments.
Patterson To Orioles For Minor Leaguers
According to ESPN and other sources, Corey Patterson has been dealt to the Orioles for 20 year-old 2B/SS Nate Spears and 23 year-old southpaw starter Carlos Perez. Spears is a scrappy middle infielder in the David Eckstein mold. He hit .294/.349/.429 for advanced Class A Frederick in 2005. Perez posted a 4.28 ERA in 151 innings for Class A Delmarva this year.
Click here to view my Corey Patterson projection.
Phil Rogers On Burnitz
Some interesting items for Cubs fans in Phil Rogers’s column today.
Rogers calls the Cubs’ decision not to exercise Jeromy Burnitz‘s $7MM option a gaffe. He points out that Jacque Jones is basically Burnitz’s equal in right field. That’s true, even when you take fielding into account. In my opinion, letting Burnitz go was a smart move. However, signing Jones for three years is a poor way to solve fill the vacancy. At least, that’s been my stance on this site.
But after perusing the right fielder rankings from 2005, I had to ask myself: what alternative would I have proposed as Cubs GM? Nobody ranked above Jones/Burnitz was ever really available, at least not for a reasonable price. Looked at in that way, Rogers is right. Better to have one year of Burnitz and see if Felix Pie is ready in 2007. However, given the almighty power as Cubs GM, I would’ve traded for Craig Wilson and stuck him in right.
Rogers also weighs in on the Tejada trade possibility:
"If Hendry really will give up Mark Prior or Carlos Zambrano—and he would be nuts to deal Prior—there’s a deal to be made. The Orioles should soon realize that."
There’s been pages of debate on this site, but I think Hendry would be truly nuts to trade Zambrano. Z is just 24 and has quietly become one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. If he ever gets a handle on his walks, he’d be downright dominant.
Finally, Rogers mentions Alfonso Soriano as a trade possibility. I shudder at the thought. Remember when Hendry mandated the callups of Matt Murton and Adam Greenberg? It seemed like he was forcing some OBP guys onto Dusty Baker and that was that. I thought the organization had turned a corner and embraced on-base percentage.