Four Teams After Patterson
According to Bruce Levine on ESPN Radio 1000, four different teams have interest in Cubs former phenom Corey Patterson. The contenders are the Orioles, Mariners, Rangers, and Nationals. Hendry apparently wants at least two young players in return. A trade is possible next week.
Personally, I hope Hendry chooses quality over quantity here. Running down the teams:
The Orioles have nothing to lose by throwing Patterson in CF and seeing if he can reignite his career. The club doesn’t seem fond of Luis Matos at this point.
A trade to the Mariners would imply the departure of Jeremy Reed, which would be a curious decision by Bill Bavasi. We’ve heard in the past that he could go to Boston for various young starters.
The Rangers have a lot of outfielders – David Dellucci, Gary Matthews Jr., Kevin Mench, Laynce Nix, and Brad Wilkerson. Dellucci is a fit for DH, and the rest have all been mentioned in trade rumors. Why Daniels would want to replace one of the four with Patterson is beyond me.
Ryan Church is a better fit in right field for the Nationals, but that’s Jose Guillen‘s position. Brandon Watson and Marlon Byrd may not be regulars, so moving Church to left and giving Patterson a shot isn’t a terrible idea. Although Watson seems like a better option that Patterson based on his Triple A stats.
Thanks to Alex
Kaplan: Cubs “Trying Hard” For Tejada
Late last night I talked to Dave Kaplan, co-host of WGN’s Sports Central. Dave gave me a different take on the Miguel Tejada situation than what my source told me.
He said his sources indicate the White Sox are out of the Tejada sweepstakes and that the Red Sox are also backing away now that Manny said he’ll stay. According to Kaplan, the Cubs are "trying hard." He also mentioned that there’s "still a long way to go to get a deal done, but if the Cubs will include Felix Pie they could get it done."
FoxSports’s Ken Rosenthal threw his hat into the ring last night, indicating that the Phillies have offered Bobby Abreu for Tejada and would play Tejada at third base. Of course, Abreu has the power to veto such a trade.
At any rate, more than one source has indicated that the Tejada situation will get resolved today, whether he stays or goes. I guess we’ll see.
In other news, Dan Connolly of the Chicago Tribune quotes an industry source saying the Cubs are "closing in" on a trade to send Corey Patterson to Baltimore for an unknown minor leaguer. The minor leaguer is said to not be one of the Orioles’ top five. Based on Will Lingo’s top ten list for Baseball America, perhaps numbers 6-10 are possible. I’m just speculating, but the Cubs could really use a guy like Val Majewski if the Orioles would part with him.
Craig Wilson, Cubs Bullpen, and More
Today seems to be a bit of a slow day on the trade rumors front. I’m still working on gathering some Tejada info. For now I’ll just say that you shouldn’t discount the White Sox even after both major Chicago newspapers quoted Kenny Williams saying no deal will happen. As commenters in this thread pointed out, Williams has been known to keep a low profile and be less than forthright when talking to the media.
Somehow, a rumor came about yesterday that San Francisco’s KNBR 1050 was reporting that the Pirates had dealt Craig Wilson to the Athletics for Kirk Saarloos. This rumor appears to have been fabricated; it doesn’t seem that the radio station ever proposed it. KNBR didn’t return my emails, but I’m still pretty sure there’s nothing to the rumor. It’s not implausible, as Billy Beane is the type of GM to acquire an undervalued player and worry about his outfielder surplus later. I don’t believe Dave Littlefield’s statements about not wanting to trade Wilson. He’d be valuable to many teams, and the Pirates’ recent acquisitions indicate that they’ll deal him.
RotoAuthority’s latest:
2006 Fantasy Guide On Sale For $9.99 For A Limited Time
Good readin’: 1060west has updated its post about the Cubs’ revamped bullpen. This quote resonated with me:
"Seen in the light of statistical evidence, it becomes clear that nothing has been done to improve the Cub bullpen from April 2005 to this stage; in fact, if anything, the Cubs have actually gotten weaker in going from Hawkins to Howry and Remlinger to Eyre."
The main point is that Hendry tends to purchase free agent relievers for big bucks following the reliever’s best season. Not a smart strategy.
The Phillies and Ryan Franklin? This won’t end well. I’m just happy to see than Ryan Madson will finally get a shot in the rotation; he’s got a 3.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 7.27 K/9 in 166 Major League innings. High strikeout totals and good control are always a great combo.
Cubs/Red Sox/Mariners Trade Possible
A reliable source told me today about a three-way deal that is "imminent." It’s always risky to throw around "imminent," but I’m just quoting him here.
Here’s the scenario:
BOS gives: Bronson Arroyo, Tony Graffanino, PTBNL
BOS gets: Jeremy Reed, Will Ohman
CHC gives: Corey Patterson, Ohman
CHC gets: Raul Ibanez, Graffanino, cash
SEA gives: Reed, Ibanez, cash
SEA gets: Arroyo, Patterson, PTBNL
Let’s evaluate. There’s no doubt the Cubs would be making out like bandits in this trade. Corey Patterson is useless to them, even as a fourth outfielder. 28 year-old lefty Ohman tossed a solid 43 innings this year, and seems recovered from his January 2002 Tommy John surgery.
But Chicago’s bounty seems to outweigh the former phenom and useful southpaw. Ibanez is on the hook for just $4.25MM in 2006, and the 33 year-old is probably good for a .290/.350/.460 line in 2006. He played 55 games in left field for the Mariners in 2005. I’ve projected him at .288 with 21 HR, 84 RBI, 89 runs, and 8 steals for 2006. Graffanino could probably chip in with some decent on-base skills from 2B or a utility role.
My Arroyo projection has him leading the Red Sox in wins with 16. Arroyo does a good job limiting his baserunners and should have an ERA under 4. I don’t think Safeco would have a major effect on his numbers. Reed should continue to improve all facets of his game in ’06, and would be a nice pickup for the Red Sox.
There may be a holdup in the deal because the Red Sox want to trade before Graffanino and Arroyo hit arbitration, and the Cubs want to wait. The word is that Mariners GM Bill Bavasi is strangely infatuated with Corey Patterson. If that’s the case, Hendry should strike while the iron is hot. I don’t have any information on where Matt Murton would find himself if the proposed trade takes place, but he wouldn’t have a starting gig for the Cubs.
Cubs Still Discussing Zito, Tejada
Just got off the phone with Dave Kaplan, host of Sports Central on WGN Radio 720 out of Chicago. He gave me the latest on where the Cubs stand with Barry Zito.
Billy Beane is not sure whether he’ll deal Zito now or in July. However, the teams have had discussions recently, and the A’s like the Cubs’ farm system quite a bit. A deal for several of the Cubs’ young arms is a distinct possibility. The A’s aren’t looking for Matt Murton in the trade, but rather pitchers like Rich Hill, Angel Guzman, and Sean Marshall. There’s been plenty of debate on this site about Rich Hill’s future in the Major Leagues, but it’s a fact that many teams absolutely love him and are trying to pry him away from the Cubs. Hill has a ton of trade value. Anyway, sit tight on the Zito idea; nothing’s going down today.
Kaplan also mentioned that the Tejada trade is "not dead" for the Cubs. I don’t know which names are currently being tossed around, but rest assured the Cubs still have a chance at acquiring him.
Buzz Around The Game
Let’s take a look at what some other sources are reporting today on the rumor front.
Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post mentions that Marquis Grissom’s agent said he will sign with the Cubs. When you look at Grissom’s 2005, there’s not much to like. He doesn’t get on base and he’s pushing 40. On the flip side, Grissom mashed lefties to the tune of .315/.356/.577 in 2004 and he’d make a great platoon partner for Jacque Jones.
UPDATE: You probably assumed this, but I’ve verified with a reliable source that the Grissom deal is for one year and will be incentive-based. Nothing unexpected, but worth a mention.
The Mets are apparently finalizing a deal for Danys Baez where they’d give up either Jae Seo or Aaron Heilman plus prospects. In my opinion, this trade is going to weaken the Mets in 2006. I’ve projected Baez to post an ERA near 4. Click here to read MetsBlog’s take.
From my inbox today: "You would be crediable if your rumors actually came true." Why do some people spend so much time writing long, incoherent emails about how they don’t like my site? Just stop reading it if you don’t like it.
Dave Kaplan of WGN Radio Chicago has reported that the Cubs are in discussions for Barry Zito. Wouldn’t be bad to see a durable pitcher on the North Side of Chicago to complement Zambrano.
As you’ve certainly read, Miguel Tejada still wants out. More on details on teams in play later today.
Cubs Close To Signing Preston Wilson?
I’ve got the latest Cubs scoop tonight. This is thirdhand information originating from a baseball scout, but I do think it’s legitimate. The source is telling me that the Cubs are close to signing Preston Wilson.
It seems that the Tejada deal is dead and the Orioles have rejected the Cubs’ offer. Cubs GM Jim Hendry is looking in another direction for some added power in the lineup, and Wilson is his type of player. By that, I mean that Wilson is an affordable outfielder with average to below average plate discipline. He’s a career .264/.333/.478 hitter.
The acquisition would push Jacque Jones to left field, a position he hasn’t played since 2003. Matt Murton would platoon with Jones and face southpaws. Wilson would take over in right field, a position he’s played for just 19 games in his career. The source also mentioned that Corey Patterson is as good as gone, although we pretty much assumed that.
Cubs Tejada Trade On The Table
An emailer reports that the Cubs are awaiting word from the Orioles on this offer:
Cubs get:
Miguel Tejada, Erik Bedard
Orioles get:
Mark Prior, Rich Hill, Corey Patterson
This proposal is on the table. The report comes from Bruce Levine on ESPN Radio 1000.
The pros and cons of this deal have been debated endlessly on this site. To restate my opinion: this move works as a "win now" move. The Cubs would add something like seven wins, so they’d need some additional upgrades or players outplaying projections to be favored as the division winner. A couple of options I like:
Platoon Jacque Jones with Matt Murton and acquire a slugging left fielder. Cliff Floyd would only become available if the Mets acquire Manny Ramirez. While the Cubs aren’t thrilled with Luis Gonzalez, he’s still a top ten LF and could push them over the top.
Trade for Jeff Kent. He’s one of the five best second basemen, and I’m firmly in the camp that Ronny Cedeno will not be a Major League success. Kent’s obviously a force in the Dodgers’ lineup, but the Cubs could come on strong and top the Mets’ weak offer. The Dodgers may want to get some young players in return before Kent’s contract is up. Just a thought.
Update: Prior-Tejada Trade
A couple of emailers have informed me of a radio report by Bruce Levine on ESPN Radio 1000. Levine was the first to report the Juan Pierre trade earlier this month.
According to the emailers, the Cubs are waiting to hear back from the Orioles (Angelos will be involved) on this offer:
Cubs receive Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard for Mark Prior, Rich Hill, and Corey Patterson.
Essentially, Patterson is a non-factor in discussing 2006 value. Hill would also not be likely to add much value to a Major League rotation next year. As I mentioned yesterday, this trade nets the Cubs seven wins if everyone plays at their 2005 level.
While beloved by Cubs fans, Prior’s history of elbow problems coupled with two freak injuries have limited his playing time for the team. He’s averaged 166 innings over the last three seasons. Interesting quote in Buster Olney’s blog for ESPN this morning:
"Executives with other teams are assuming, by the way, that Baltimore owner Peter Angelos would likely kill any proposal once club doctors review Prior’s recent medical history."
Bedard is certainly not a pitcher of Prior’s caliber, whether evaluated based on performance or durability. He’s averaged 140 innings over the last two seasons.
Any discussion surrounding Bedard’s potential inevitably references his first half of 2005. He posted a 2.08 ERA in 60 innings before the break. Most encouraging about the successful run was Bedard’s walk rate, which was around 2.1 per nine. He’s walked 4.1 per nine on average in the Major Leagues, and 3.3 per nine in the minors. According to Baseball Prospectus, lefty Bob Ojeda circa 1984 is the closest match to Bedard (although Bedard has better strikeout numbers). Ojeda had a nice decade in the 80s, and reached his peak with 18 wins and a 2.57 ERA for the World Champion 1986 Mets.
Baltimore Sun journalist Jeff Zrebiec’s opinion on all of this?
"The Orioles clearly want to keep the shortstop but seem to be at least willing to deal him if the price is right. However as of now, it appears that Tejada will remain an Oriole at least through Christmas."
Cubs Willing To Trade Prior?
Ken Rosenthal‘s got Chicago buzzing:
"The Cubs, aggressively pursuing a blockbuster trade for Orioles shortstop Miguel Tejada, are willing to part with a top starting pitcher, most likely right-hander Mark Prior, sources tell FOXSports.com."
According to Rosenthal, the talks stalled when the Cubs insisted on receiving Erik Bedard and Tejada without surrendering Felix Pie or a top pitching prospect.
A longshot three-way deal involving Manny Ramirez, Tejada, and Prior was also mentioned.
As stated here back in November, Bedard is very much available. Bedard is more than a year older than Prior, and is even more fragile. I’ve projected Bedard at a 3.74 ERA in 170 innings in 2006. I originally had Prior at a 3.37 ERA in 202 innings, although the ERA could be more like 3.53 after I make some more adjustments.
Bedard is a lot further away from free agency than Prior, having only two Major League seasons under his belt. He and Tejada would be a fair return for Prior, even if the Cubs had to include Rich Hill in the deal as the "top pitching prospect." Using 2005 stats and assuming no contribution from any prospects sent by the Cubs, this is a trade that would net the Cubs seven wins in 2006. Is the present team a .500 club? If so, this trade could propel the Cubs to the playoffs.
Still, I can’t help having that ominous feeling that the Cubs could be letting a major talent slip away. At just 25, Prior’s best seasons are probably yet to come (2003 excepted.) Miguel Tejada will turn 30 in May, and you can’t help but worry about his .276/.322/.416 line in 308 post All-Star break at-bats. Sure, people will say he was uninspired and maybe mention the Palmeiro distraction, but the seed of doubt remains.