Chicago Notes: Byrd, Fuld, Zambrano, Peavy
It was on this day in 1959 that Cubs right-hander Glen Hobbie, then 23, took a perfect game into the seventh inning against the Cardinals. The great Stan Musial broke up Hobbie's bid for immortality with a two-out double in the seventh — the only hit Hobbie would allow to Chicago's arch-rivals in a complete game gem.
Let's look at some items from both Hobbie's old team and their South Side brethren…
- The Cubs aren't looking to deal Marlon Byrd, reports Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald. Miles also looks at some of the Cubs' top prospects.
- With Sam Fuld off to a hot start in Tampa Bay, some fans are wondering why the Cubbies couldn't have held onto the young outfielder rather than include him in the Matt Garza trade package. As part of a mailbag, MLB.com's Carrie Muskat explains that Fuld was out of options and, had he remained in Chicago, he wouldn't have received much playing time in the crowded Cubs outfield.
- Carlos Zambrano tells CSNChicago.com's David Kaplan that a proposed worldwide amateur draft would favor American-born prospects over Latin American prospects. "I think a worldwide draft would be bad for the kids from the Dominican Republic and Venezuela because we are late developers. We don't have little league or a system of organized baseball to help us learn the game," Zambrano said. "When I was a kid we played maybe once a week, that's it. If kids from my country were drafted and then didn't develop quickly enough they wouldn't be around long."
- Also from Kaplan, up to 65% (roughly $24MM) of Jake Peavy's remaining salary could be covered by an insurance policy. This could give the White Sox some financial room to acquire another pitcher. Barry Axelrod, Peavy's agent, tells Kaplan that it is much more difficult for teams to get insurance on multiyear pitching contracts today than it was for San Diego in 2009. Peavy has yet to pitch in 2011 due to his recovery from offseason shoulder surgery, and is tentatively scheduled to return to the Sox rotation by mid-May.
- Despite his team's seven-game losing streak, White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen isn't worried about being on the hot seat, reports MLB.com's Scott Merkin.
How Much Will John Danks Earn In 2012?
If they don't sign extensions, starters John Danks, Matt Garza, Jeremy Guthrie, and Jered Weaver will enter fairly uncharted waters in the upcoming offseason as their agents attempt to establish their 2012 salaries. As I mentioned earlier this month, top starters are unwilling to go year-to-year through arbitration these days. We rarely see a healthy, ace-type pitcher make it to his third arbitration year, but Danks, Garza, Guthrie, and Weaver are primed to do just that.
Using Danks as a case study, I asked five arbitration experts what they think he'll earn in 2012. Danks is at an even $6MM this year, and we're assuming a normal platform season from him in 2011.
The ceiling for Danks appears to be around $12MM. Carlos Zambrano, who received a $5.9MM raise to $12.4MM for the 2007 season, is the comparable Danks' agent at CAA Sports (Jeff Berry) might aim for. However, none of the five experts I spoke to thought Danks' career or platform year numbers will top Zambrano's. Everyone instead predicted a salary in the $10-11MM range for Danks. Zambrano had comparables of his own, by the way, as Chan Ho Park and Kevin Millwood received $6MM raises early in the decade.
There is an interesting possibility, depending on which pitcher in Danks' class settles first. One arbitration consultant noted, "The best evidence in any arbitration hearing is the current class, and if these guys work together they could really redefine this entire market. I could see Danks getting $10.5-11MM right now. But would not be shocked if this group of pitchers changed that." He gave an example of the first-time starting pitcher market shifting during the 2010-11 offseason, as Armando Galarraga became the new $2.3MM type and Kyle Kendrick and Kevin Slowey were able to do better.
Chicago pitchers Danks and Garza are particularly comparable, so that'll be an interesting parallel to follow throughout the season. The 2012 starting pitching arbitration class is loaded with intrigue. Clayton Kershaw and David Price will duke it out trying to top Dontrelle Willis' first-time record of $4.35MM (it appears both will succeed). As a third-year arbitration eligible starter Weaver could post a Cy Young season and fly past $13MM. Tim Lincecum, who is already at $13MM, is headed for an arbitration record-breaking salary. Cole Hamels is in line for a huge bump as well, entering his fourth arbitration year coming off a $9.5MM salary. If like many MLBTR readers you're fascinated by this stuff, January and February should be exciting months.
2012 Contract Issues: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series.
Eligible For Free Agency (5)
- Mark Buehrle is a 10-and-5 player, so if the White Sox trade him they need his permission. I mention this because his contract has a unique clause that adds on a guaranteed $15MM for 2012 only if he's traded. If he does reach free agency, Buehrle is inclined to play for a contender and in a place that is comfortable for his family. Retirement isn't out of the question. Buehrle told Dan McNeil of the Chicago Tribune last month that he doesn't know what the White Sox are thinking, and speculated that maybe they think Chris Sale could do a better job for a lot less money.
- Edwin Jackson, a Scott Boras client, seems very likely to test the open market. A breakout season would be nice for his wallet, but so far he's been his inconsistent self. Though they could lose two starters to free agency, the Sox don't necessarily have to bring two in, if they want to try Sale or Jake Peavy is healthy.
- Left fielder Juan Pierre is eligible for free agency, so the Sox may need a corner outfielder this offseason.
- Omar Vizquel and Ramon Castro will also be eligible for free agency.
Contract Options (0)
Arbitration Eligible (3)
- First time: None
- Second time: None
- Third time: John Danks, Carlos Quentin, Tony Pena
- Fourth time: None
The White Sox may have to pay Danks, Quentin, and Pena $20MM for 2012. That includes a $10MM estimate for Danks, which could be light. Comparables are scarce for front-end starters in their final arbitration year, but Carlos Zambrano made the leap from $6.5MM to $12.4MM.
2012 Payroll Obligation
The White Sox have a $94.75MM payroll obligation for 2012, according to Cot's, with four $12MM+ salaries locked in. Throw in another $20MM for the arbitration eligible players, and the team would have roughly $13MM to play with in 2012 salaries if payroll is held constant at $128MM. The team might need a starter or two, a corner outfielder, and some veteran reserves, but GM Kenny Williams will have to be creative (perhaps by backloading contracts) if he wants to bring in high-salary players, unless payroll is increased again.
AL Central Notes: Sizemore, Martinez, White Sox
Links from the AL Central, before the second-place Royals host the first-place Indians…
- Indians center fielder Grady Sizemore, who has returned from microfracture knee surgery, tells Yahoo’s Jeff Passan that he feels healthy again. Passan explains that there’s no guarantee Sizemore will have the same explosiveness he had early in his career, even though he has recovered from the procedure.
- The Tigers have called up Omir Santos from Triple-A, but have yet to announce a corresponding move, according to MLB.com's Jason Beck (on Twitter). The Tigers may have to cut someone if Victor Martinez doesn't need a DL stint.
- Scot Gregor of the Daily Herald looks at the struggling White Sox and points out that Mark Teahen has likely improved his trade value a little with his strong start. That doesn't make up for Chicago's five-game losing streak, however.
Should They Have Been Non-Tendered?
On November 2nd of last year I listed 85 non-tender candidates, most of whom were indeed cut loose. Almost five months have passed since the December non-tender deadline, and I'd like to revisit five of those decisions.
- Kevin Kouzmanoff, tendered a contract by the Athletics. The A's certainly shopped around for third base alternatives after tendering a contract to Kouzmanoff, which ended up being for $4.75MM. So far the third baseman has again been part of the problem, though he's not alone as the team ranks 11th in the AL with 3.63 runs scored per game. There weren't many alternatives for the A's this offseason, but they probably should have saved Kouzmanoff's money for a trade deadline addition. They'll still be able to pursue someone, though.
- James Loney, tendered a contract by the Dodgers. Loney is already on notice with the Dodgers given the arrival of Jerry Sands. Loney settled for a predictable $4.875MM salary for 2011. Sands doesn't actually project to do any better than Loney, but the two are close enough that the Dodgers probably should have traded Loney and used the money elsewhere.
- Russell Martin, non-tendered by the Dodgers. According to Yahoo's Steve Henson, Martin wanted a guaranteed $5.5MM rather than the Dodgers' offer of $4.2MM. GM Ned Colletti made the difficult decision to non-tender Martin, but kept the offer on the table while suggesting a possible super-utility role. Martin ended up taking less guaranteed money to start at catcher for the Yankees, and he's off to a great start. The Dodgers could have forced Martin's hand by tendering a contract and arguing for a pay cut through arbitration. That would have been a risky choice, and Martin's health was a concern at the time, so I can't fault the Dodgers for non-tendering him.
- Bobby Jenks, non-tendered by the White Sox. Non-tendering Jenks was the right move given his $7.5MM salary, and the pitcher understood that decision according to MLB.com's Scott Merkin. However, Jenks and the Sox were not on the same page about the team's desire to retain him and confidence in his abilities, so he signed with Boston. The White Sox lead baseball with six blown saves, but it was still best for them to part ways with Jenks.
- Brandon McCarthy, outrighted by the Rangers in November. If they had retained McCarthy, the Rangers probably would have had to pay him something similar to last year's $1.3MM salary rather than the $1MM he received from the A's. McCarthy has looked good so far, though it's only been three starts. The Rangers are second in the AL in starter ERA without McCarthy. Still, given the strong offseason interest in him I think it would have been best to tender a contract and shop him around.
Rosenthal On Tigers, Reyes, Trout, White Sox
The Rockies, who are about to start a series with the defending World Champions, have baseball's best record so far this year. GM Dan O'Dowd told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that the team's resilience has contributed to its fast start. “We’re a confident, persistent club,” O’Dowd said. Troy Tulowitzki's hot streak hasn't hurt, either. Here are the rest of Rosenthal's rumors:
- One scout who has followed the Tigers this year predicts that they'll be looking for pitching help later this season. At some point minor leaguers Andy Oliver and Jacob Turner could help the Tigers, who are 12th in the AL with 77 runs allowed.
- A rival official says Mets GM Sandy Alderson will not offer Jose Reyes $100MM to stay in New York. It appears likely that Reyes will be on the trading block this summer, so MLBTR's Steve Adams recently outlined some possible destinations for him.
- Scouts are high on Angels prospect Mike Trout, praising his baserunning instincts, speed and power.
- Jason Marquis is a potential trade candidate, according to Rosenthal. The Nationals' right-hander has a 3.26 ERA in three starts so far this season.
- The White Sox don't plan to look outside of the organization for bullpen help at this point, despite their issues holding leads late in games.
Braves Acquire Stefan Gartrell
The Braves have acquired Triple-A outfielder Stefan Gartrell from the White Sox for cash considerations, according to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus (via Twitter). The 27-year-old has been with the White Sox since 2006, when he was taken in the 31st round of the amateur draft.
In 177 career Triple-A games, Gartrell owns a .258/.318/.460 slashline with 32 homers.
Quick Hits: Guillen, Royals, Harden, Tribe
The Nationals have announced the passing of shortstop prospect Yewri Guillen due to bacterial meningitis. Guillen, 18, was signed by Washington in February and was playing at the club's Dominican Republic academy. He was honored with a moment of silence before tonight's Brewers/Nationals game. MLBTR sends our condolences to Guillen's friends and family.
Some news from around the majors…
- Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star discussed potential call-ups and other roster moves for the Royals in a chat with fans this afternoon.
- Rich Harden has suffered an injury to his teres major muscle that will likely elongate his stay on the disabled list, reports MLB.com's Eric Gilmore. Harden, who signed a one-year, $1.5MM deal with the Athletics in December, has been on the DL with an injury to his throwing shoulder.
- Are the surprising Indians for real? Probably not, says Fangraphs' Steve Slowinski, but the Tribe has so many young players on the roster that it's hard to calculate if these players will drastically fall off or if some are just developing. Slowinski also notes that Cleveland is winning despite slow starts from expected stars like Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana.
- The White Sox closer will be "whoever is there in the ninth inning," Ozzie Guillen tells Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune. We didn't get a chance to see a save situation tonight as Chicago lost to the Angels, but keep following @CloserNews (MLBTR's sister Twitter feed) for the latest on who will be finishing games for the Pale Hose.
Lastings Milledge Clears Waivers
TUESDAY: Milledge cleared waivers and accepted a Triple-A assignment, tweets Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune.
THURSDAY: The White Sox designated Lastings Milledge for assignment to create roster space for Jeff Gray, the team announced (on Twitter). Milledge broke camp with the team after signing a minor league deal and appeared in two games (he went 1/4 with a double), but the White Sox needed relief, particularly after consecutive extra innings contests against the Royals.
Ozzie Guillen's relievers have combined for 11 1/3 innings of work since Tuesday, so Gray gets the call. The former Cubs reliever has a 4.91 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 40 1/3 innings at the Major League level. The White Sox signed him last November, after the Cubs granted him free agency.
Tim Byrdak Has An App For That
Let's face it: our constant desire for baseball transaction news is insatiable, but there isn't much logic to it. Whether our favorite team signs a left-handed reliever in December or January will have little effect on the upcoming season.
But a person with a vested interest in offseason signings is, naturally, the player himself. A guaranteed Major League deal as opposed to a simple invitation to Spring Training is the difference between someone asking you to move to a new city with a guaranteed income and asking you to come for a few weeks to play a lottery ticket.
So it should come as no surprise that Mets reliever Tim Byrdak, who has pitched for five Major League teams and numerous minor league outfits, has the MLB Trade Rumors app on his iPhone. Every rumor, whether involving him or one of his lefty specialist brethren, has the potential to completely shake up his life and uproot his family.
"You do everything you can to keep your job, and I felt like I put up pretty strong numbers," Byrdak said as we chatted in front of his locker last week. Byrdak noted that he'd pitched through a sports hernia last year, though his results against lefties (a .644 OPS, 8.0 K/9, 3.0 BB/9) hardly suffered as a result.
"I thought we'd have more of an opportunity to secure a big-league job," Byrdak continued. "So you have to keep watching the wire, MLB Trade Rumors, all these sites to see who is going where, who has interest in guys. So it became a pretty valuable tool for me to keep an eye on other lefties that were still on the market, and how that market was developing."
What may seem like a minor post to a reader about a team's interest in a middle reliever is seismic to someone like Byrdak, and he found it hard to avoid getting frustrated by some of the things he read.
"There were a couple [of times]," Byrdak said. "You would hear from a couple of different teams, and you thought you'd be starting the negotiation process. People have asked me, 'How come I don't play for the White Sox' [Byrdak is from nearby Oak Forest, IL], and I tell them, 'Well, you know, they've never offered me a job."
Apparently, the White Sox did express some interest, raising Byrdak's hopes of a homecoming.
"They said last year, they were going to offer me a minor league deal, but we didn't know what they were going to do with [Chris Sale], what they were going to do with [Matt] Thornton – was he going to close for them – and then all of the sudden, out of nowhere, I read on MLB Trade Rumors that they signed Will Ohman to a two-year deal.
"So there were times that you'd be talking to a team, and then you'd read that they had interest in somebody else, and it was kind of a shock."
After three seasons with Houston, Byrdak worked hard not to worry too much about the process all winter. But he acknowledged the difficulty in being unable to tell his family just how their next few months would unfold.
"The whole adversity of it was the wait-and-see," Byrdak explained. "You want to do everything you can to prepare for the season. But it's nice to have, in the back of your mind, knowing where you're going to be. It was different for me and for my family."
Over the course of the offseason, Byrdak had a number of other minor league offers. Ultimately, after waiting for a Major League deal that never came, he signed with the Mets on January 21, and made the team with a strong spring.
"I read somewhere, Chad Durbin said the same thing, that you've got to take what was out there," Byrdak said. "There wasn't a big-league job out there for us to get. I'm a guy who usually is coming into camp – you're in shape – but it's about getting your arm strength, getting everything together without the pressure. It was different this year. You have to compete, put up zeroes as early and often as you can."
Now with a Major League roster spot secured, Byrdak plans to use the 2011 season as proof to the 29 other teams that he deserved more security.
"You want to prove to all of those teams that they were wrong," Byrdak said. "It's a little extra incentive to go out there and have the best year you can."
And if Byrdak excels for the Mets in 2011, that article he seeks – Byrdak Signs Long-Term Deal – could pop right up on MLB Trade Rumors. You may read it and have little reaction. But in the Byrdak household, the response will be huge.