Draft Notes: Lewis, McKay, Day 2, Gore, Greene, Wright, Beck

No. 1 overall draft pick Royce Lewis will take his physical with the Twins soon, tweets Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. There aren’t expected to be any hangups in negotiations, per Berardino, who notes that the industry expectation is for Lewis to receive a bonus north of Dansby Swanson‘s $6.5MM bonus from the 2015 draft. The top pick in the draft came with a slot value of $7.7MM, and MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger wrote this week that Lewis could sign for around $1MM less than that sum. That’d put his bonus in the $6.5MM to $6.7MM range, saving the Twins anywhere from $1MM to $1.2MM from the slot value. FanRag’s Jon Heyman pegs the expected value at “just a tick over” $6.7MM. Rays top pick Brendan McKay, meanwhile, is expected to sign for somewhere between $7MM and $7.2MM, according to Berardino. That’d be the largest bonus ever given to a college player under the current draft structure, surpassing Kris Bryant‘s $6.7MM sum.

More notes on the draft…

  • The Twins “crushed” Day 2 of the draft, MLB.com’s Jim Callis opines. Adding high school right-hander Blayne Enlow, a potential first-round talent that dropped due to a strong commitment to LSU, kicked off a day in which Minnesota selected five players that ranked inside MLB.com’s top 200 draft prospects. Enlow, Callis writes, has the best curveball in the draft as well as a fastball that has touched 94 mph and has room to grow as his projectable frame grows. Callis also lauds the White Sox, Dodgers, Red Sox and Brewers for the talent they secured in rounds three through 10. ESPN’s Keith Law agrees that the Twins did quite well to land Enlow with the No. 76 pick and also gives quite a bit of praise to the Athletics, who landed a first-round talent (in his estimation) with the 81st pick by taking shortstop Nick Allen. Law opines that the undersized Allen, who is listed at 5’8″, would’ve been a top 10 pick if he were three inches taller.
  • FanRag’s Jon Heyman provides some insight into the progress being made with the top five picks in the draft. The Padres, according to Heyman, are expected to sign No. 3 overall pick MacKenzie Gore, a high school left-hander, for the full slot value of $6,668,100. Reds top pick Hunter Greene, meanwhile, is expected to sign for a deal “close” to the $7,193,200 slot value of his No. 2 overall selection, per Heyman. (Also of note for Reds fans: Heyman spoke to a rival exec who heaped praise on the Reds’ draft, opining that they “won the draft by far.”) And the Braves look to be going well over slot to sign Vanderbilt right-hander Kyle Wright, as Heyman reports that they’re discussing a deal worth close to $7MM, while the No. 5 slot carries a value of $5,707,300. Of course, Wright was long rumored to be a potential No. 1 overall pick, so it stands to reason that he’d come with a fairly sizable price tag.
  • Baseball America’s John Manuel reported yesterday that Stanford right-hander Tristan Beck, a potential first-round talent that missed the 2017 season due to a stress fracture in his lower back, will not sign and plans to head back to Stanford (Twitter link). That didn’t stop the Yankees from drafting him late (29th round), though New York would obviously need to give him a massive bonus in order to convince him to forgo a return to college, as a healthy Beck would do quite well in next year’s draft. The Yankees may not have the leftover money even to make a legitimate effort to sign Beck, though he makes for a nice contingency plan if the team unexpectedly finds itself with some extra pool money to play with.

Draft Chatter: Lewis, McKay, College Arms, Mock Drafts, A’s

With the MLB Draft just a few hours away, there’s some increasing talk that the Twins are giving serious consideration to high school shortstop Royce Lewis with the No. 1 overall pick. John Manuel of Baseball America tweeted today that Lewis is in consideration and adds that he was told by a Twins official that signability is a factor for the Twins up top. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that the Twins are down to Lewis and Louisville left-hander/first baseman Brendan McKay. Meanwhile, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson tweeted that as of this morning, a Twins front office source told him that no decision has been made.

For those wondering whether the Twins may cut a deal with Lewis to save money and allow greater spending with their Comp Balance pick and second-round selection, FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that Lewis has a high asking price. (Lewis is reportedly being advised by agent Scott Boras.) Adding to the Lewis/Twins steam is La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, who tweeted that with less than three hours until the Twins are on the clock, the Lewis steam is real. McKay and flamethrowing righty Hunter Greene are both in the mix, Neal adds, and money is a significant factor in the decision. Obviously, the Twins will spend their entire allotted draft budget regardless of who they take, but the amount for which the first overall pick signs will determine how aggressive the Twins can be on pick Nos. 35 and 37 as well as with the rest of their selections.

A bit more on tonight’s draft…

  • Fangraphs’ Gerald Schifman takes an excellent look at the usage of some of the top college arms in the draft, examining each pitcher’s average pitches per start, the percentage of starts in excess of 115 pitches and the number of “Pitch Smart” violations. (More details on the Pitch Smart guidelines here.) Notably, projected top picks like Vanderbilt’s Kyle Wright and Louisville’s Brendan McKay have had their pitch counts and rest between starts managed quite well for the most part. On the other end of the spectrum is UCLA righty Griffin Canning, who has throw 115+ pitches in 53 percent of his outings in the past two seasons. Missouri’s Tanner Houck has also had some troubling usage trends, including high pitch counts and a lack of rest between outings.
  • As is always the case on draft day, there are a number of last-minute mock drafts from some industry experts that readers and draft followers will want to check out. Both Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com agree that the top five picks will go Brendan McKay (Twins), Hunter Greene (Reds), MacKenzie Gore (Padres), Royce Lewis (Rays) and Keston Hiura (Braves). That, somewhat surprisingly, would leave Kyle Wright out of the top five, though Callis has him going sixth to the A’s, while Mayo has him going seventh to the D-backs. BA’s John Manuel agrees with that top three, though he has high school outfielder Bubba Thompson going to the Rays and Wright going to the Braves at No. 5. ESPN’s Keith Law also published a draft-day mock, listing McKay, Greene, Gore, Lewis and Wright as his respective top five.
  • The Athletics are up with the No. 6 pick in the draft tonight, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle connects them to a number of outfielders and pitchers. High school lefty MacKenzie Gore is on Oakland’s radar, though many project him to go before the A’s are on the clock. High school outfielder Austin Beck is also an Athletics target and recently had a private workout with the A’s. Slusser notes that they’d be thrilled to see Kyle Wright slip to them with the sixth selection, similarly to the manner in which Florida lefty A.J. Puk dropped to Oakland last year after being discussed as a potential 1-1 option. Wright’s teammate, outfielder Jeren Kendall, is also intriguing to the A’s, per Slusser.

Draft Notes: Twins, Reds, Rays, Braves

A day before the start of the 2017 MLB Draft, here are the current rumblings.

  • The Twins look likely to select Vanderbilt righty Kyle Wright or Louisville two-way player Brendan McKay with the first overall pick, John Manuel of Baseball America writes in his last mock (which came out Friday). Late last week, Jim Callis of MLB.com suggested the Twins were leaning toward McKay, although it seems the first pick is still the subject of some uncertainty. Both sources have the Reds taking California high school righty Hunter Greene at No. 2 and the Padres going with North Carolina high school lefty MacKenzie Gore at No. 3, although those picks could seemingly change based on what the Twins end up doing. (ESPN’s Keith Law, by the way, has a long profile of Greene, calling him “the best prospect in the draft class and one of the most gifted teenage players I’ve ever seen,” even as he notes that kind of praise can lead to burdensome expectations.)
  • Interestingly, Jonathan Mayo’s latest update in the MLB.com link above cites speculation that the Rays at No. 4 and the Braves at No. 5 could make predraft deals with players to save money against the value of their picks and then go after highly regarded talents in later rounds. (The Rays have a pool of about $12.5MM, with the Braves at just under $10MM.) One possibility should the Rays go that route is Alabama high school outfielder Bubba Thompson, who MLB.com currently rates as the No. 26 prospect in the draft. Atlanta could do something similar, but they could also take Wright or California high school SS/OF Royce Lewis if those players are still available when they make their first selection.
  • It’s possible you remember Darren Baker, Dusty’s son, as the small batboy being yanked away from home plate by J.T. Snow in the 2002 World Series. Now, though, Darren is an outfield prospect with a commitment to Cal. Dusty says, though, that Darren will honor that commitment unless he’s drafted “real, real high,” according to Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post (on Twitter).

Reds Sign Cuban Shortstop Jose Israel Garcia

JUNE 10: The deal has been cleared by the league and is now official, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets.

JUNE 8: The Reds and Garcia have a deal, per FanRag’s Jon Heyman, who confirms it’s for $5MM (Twitter link).

JUNE 7: There’s no official deal in place just yet, tweets C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer, but the Reds are close. MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets that there’s an agreement in place, but nothing official yet due to the fact that Garcia still needs to pass a physical. Sanchez pegs the bonus at precisely $5MM and says it could become official on Thursday.

JUNE 6: The Reds have agreed to a contract with 19-year-old shortstop Jose Israel Garcia, reports Baseball America’s Ben Badler. The Cuban native, who is subject to international bonus pools due to both his age and lack of professional experience, will receive a bonus of roughly $5MM on his minor league deal, according to Badler. Because the Reds have already vastly exceeded their league-allotted international signing pool, they’ll pay a 100 percent luxury tax on the signing, meaning the addition of Garcia to their improving farm system will cost them somewhere in the vicinity of $10MM.

Badler provides a fairly lengthy scouting report on Garcia that Reds fans will want to check out. Listed at 6’3″ and 170 pounds, Garcia has room to add another 20 or so pounds to his frame and will moving from second base to shortstop in pro ball, per Badler’s piece, though there are questions about his ability to stick at the position. He has the arm for third base but perhaps not the power to profile at the position, as Badler notes that he’s more of a gap hitter whose power ceiling currently projects around 10 to 15 homers per year with plus speed on the bases. Garcia has also been tied to both Houston and San Diego since being declared a free agent.

The Reds have already inked right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez and shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez as their two largest international signings of the 2016-17 period, though like the Astros earlier today, they managed to pull off at least one more significant add before the closing of the current signing period on June 15. At that point, there’ll be a roughly two-week dead period where international prospects are ineligible to sign before the 2017-18 signing period kicks off on July 2. As part of their penalty for shattering their bonus pool, Cincinnati will be barred from signing any international free agent for greater than $300K in both the 2017-18 and 2018-19 signing periods.

Draft Notes: Twins, Reds, McKay, Ramos, Canning, Heimlich

Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis’ latest for MLB.com contains plenty of new details on next week’s amateur draft. Here’s the latest.

  • The Twins now seem increasingly likely to take two-way Louisville player Brendan McKay and develop him as a left-handed pitcher rather than a first baseman, Callis writes. The Twins had previously been connected to Vanderbilt righty Kyle Wright, although they had California high school pitcher Hunter Greene in for a workout yesterday. The Reds will take Greene, unless the Twins pick him, in which case they’ll take McKay as a pitcher.
  • Heliot Ramos, a high school outfielder from Puerto Rico, could go somewhere in the middle of the first round, perhaps to the AstrosGiants or Orioles.
  • UCLA righty Griffin Canning‘s stock appears to be falling over issues with his MRI, Mayo writes. Canning had been projected to go in the middle of the first round, but his MRI has some teams already deciding to pass on him. It’s not clear right now what those issues are. It’s perhaps worth noting that Canning’s potential arm troubles don’t seem to have hurt him this year — he has a 2.34 ERA and 140 whiffs over 119 innings this season.
  • A report late this week from Danny Moran and Brad Schmidt of the Oregonian should be disturbing news, to say the least, for teams interested in selecting Oregon State lefty Luke Heimlich. As a teenager, Heimlich reportedly pleaded guilty to molesting a 6-year-old family member. He reportedly is thus a registered sex offender. He was previously seen as a possible second- or third-rounder, but that seems unlikely after the emergence of this news. “You absolutely can’t draft him,” a scouting official with an NL team told Callis.

Quick Hits: Baker, Reed, Bruce, Price, July 2

It was on this day in 1908 that one of baseball’s great slang terms was coined.  In a story by the New York Globe’s Peter Morris about an 8-2 Giants win over the Pirates, Morris wrote “It isn’t often that [umpire] Hank O’Day is caught napping‚ but a young player just getting his cup of coffee in the league put one over on Hank and [umpire Bill Klem] yesterday.”  This was reportedly the first time that “cup of coffee” was used to describe a short stint in the big leagues, and it has been part of the game’s vernacular ever since.

Some news as we head into the weekend…

  • Dusty Baker’s desire for a contract extension is “not going [to] be an issue” for the Nationals, GM Mike Rizzo told the Washington Post’s Jorge Castillo and other reporters.  “We’re not going to let it be an issue. Dusty’s a true professional. He’s been through this, the rigors of the regular season, a million times. I’ve been through it a million times. It’s suffice to say there’s great communication, great respect between the front office and the manager’s office.”  Baker has been open about wanting to remain with the Nats beyond the end of his current contract, which expires at season’s end, and Rizzo has himself recommended to ownership that Baker be extended, though there hasn’t appeared to be any movement towards a new deal.
  • Cody Reed has been pitching well since his demotion to Triple-A, but Reds manager Bryan Price tells the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Zach Buchanan and other reporters that the club has no plans to bring Reed back up to the Show in the near future.  Reed, ranked by Baseball America as the #2 prospect in the Reds’ farm system, has a 7.15 ERA over 61 2/3 innings in the big leagues — a 10-start stint in 2016 and seven outings (six relief appearances, one start) to begin this year.  “I don’t want to take another step back with this kid.  He’s doing too well in Triple-A to feel like we’ve rushed him back and if he has a setback up here we feel like we’re back to square one,” Price said.
  • Jay Bruce has gone from offseason trade chip to a hugely valuable piece for the Mets, Mike Puma of the New York Post writes.  There was some question as to whether the Mets would exercise their $13MM club option on Bruce last winter given his struggles after joining the team in a deadline trade, and the Mets also shopped Bruce after they re-signed Yoenis Cespedes.  Bruce has rebounded to hit .250/.322/.514 with 15 homers in 242 PA, helping stabilize an outfield that lost Cespedes to the DL and Curtis Granderson to an ugly early-season slump.
  • David Price‘s issues with the Boston media have added a new wrinkle to his contract’s opt-out clause after the 2018 season, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal writes.  Price may be tired of pitching in Boston, yet he realistically isn’t going to opt out of the four years and $127MM remaining on his deal unless he feels he can find as much or more money in free agency at age 33.  So Price now has perhaps even more incentive to pitch well for the Red Sox, though in this situation’s odd catch-22, better performance would likely alleviate the media pressure.  With over a season and a half to go before Price has to face his opt-out decision, it’s probably too early to speculate about his current thought process, especially when so many other factors (Price’s health, the team’s performance, etc.) are also in the mix.
  • Baseball America’s Ben Badler (subscription required) looks ahead to the next international signing period that opens on July 2, profiling five highly-touted young players from the Dominican Republic who are already rumored to be signing with the Mets, Pirates, Rockies, Twins, and Yankees.

Anthony DeSclafani May Not Return Until August

While the Reds are preparing to welcome Homer Bailey and Brandon Finnegan back to their rotation perhaps by the end of the month, manager Bryan Price offered a less encouraging update on top starter Anthony DeSclafani, per Tom Groeschen of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

“[DeSclafani] is behind,” said Price. “He initiated another throwing program that will take him close to the time that Homer and Finnegan might be ready, that last week or week and a half of June, he may be approaching his mound time. … I wouldn’t anticipate him until probably around August (in Cincinnati). That would be realistic.”

The 27-year-old DeSclafani has yet to pitch in 2017 due to a sprained ulnar collateral ligament suffered back in Spring Training. The Reds initially stated that DeSclafani would be shut down from throwing for a month, but he didn’t begin a throwing program until May 19. While reports at that time suggested that the condition of DeSclafani’s UCL had markedly improved, it now seems that the talented young righty will remain sidelined longer than the Reds had hoped. It should be noted that Price made no mention of a setback or any sort of aggravation of the injury.

Both Finnegan and Bailey will make rehab starts for Double-A Pensacola this weekend, Groeschen notes, which is certainly better news for a Reds team that has received an MLB-worst 5.81 ERA from its rotation. (The next-worst team, the Phillies, are at a distant 5.17 mark.) With DeSclafani and Bailey on the shelf all season and Finnegan having been limited to just 10 innings, the Reds have relied on veterans Scott Feldman and Bronson Arroyo to anchor the staff while a hodgepodge of less-experienced arms have filled in the cracks.

Feldman has proven to be a shrewd late-winter pickup, tossing 72 2/3 innings of 4.09 ERA ball across 13 starts. Arroyo, on the other hand, has been rocked for a 6.52 ERA, though he’s at least managed to soak up 63 2/3 innings in the wake of the myriad injuries that have beset the Cincinnati pitching staff. Tim Adleman‘s 49 innings rank third on the team, and of the 10 players to start a game for the Reds this year, Adleman is one of three with an ERA under 5.00 (Feldman, Finnegan are the others). Amir Garrett, Rookie Davis and Lisalverto Bonilla have been the most frequent alternatives in the rotation, though each has an ERA north of 7.00.

However, in spite of the dismal work from Cincinnati starters, the Reds find themselves just one game under .500 and two games back from the division lead in a surprisingly weak NL Central. Cincinnati’s bullpen has been one of the best in the game, and only five clubs have managed to score more runs than the Reds, who are also tied for the game’s sixth-best wRC+ (105). That the Reds have managed to stay afloat despite losing the majority of their projected rotation for the bulk of 2017 thus far only makes the return of Finnegan and Bailey more crucial as the team plots its course with the trade deadline roughly seven weeks away.

NL Notes: Phillies, Neshek, Reds, Syndergaard

Contract-year reliever Pat Neshek has enjoyed his season with the Phillies, but the right-hander expects to end up in another uniform by the trade deadline, writes Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. “I would say yes,” Neshek said. “It would be really cool to stay around here. I like it here. I feel very comfortable here. But if that happens … I’m sure it will happen.” The 36-year-old joined the Phillies in an offseason deal with the Astros, and though Neshek’s now on a rebuilding team instead of a contender, he regards the trade as “the best thing that happened to me in a few years.” Given their impressive collection of relievers, Neshek understands why the Astros phased him out, but he was “miserable” in a diminished role last season. “I would almost rather retire than do a role like I was doing for them,” commented Neshek, who has taken advantage of a higher-leverage job in Philadelphia. One of the few Phillies to perform well in 2017, Neshek has pitched to a microscopic .82 ERA over 22 innings, also posting 8.59 K/9 against 1.64 BB/9. In doing so, the $6.5MM man has beefed up his trade value, as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently noted.

More from the NL:

  • The Reds’ rotation currently ranks last in the majors in both ERA (5.95) and fWAR (minus-0.9), but a couple of reinforcements are on the way, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. Righty Homer Bailey and southpaw Brandon Finnegan will begin Double-A rehab assignments in the next week. “I think both of them [could return] by the end of the month,” said manager Bryan Price. “That would be realistic. It’s not written in stone, but I think by the end of the month, we could have both Finnegan and Homer in our rotation.” Bailey hasn’t pitched at all this season after undergoing February surgery to remove bone spurs in his elbow, and has combined for a meager 34 1/3 frames since he had Tommy John surgery in 2015. Before injuries derailed Bailey’s career, he was a quality starter for the Reds, who inked him to a six-year, $105MM extension in 2014. The 31-year-old is still owed more than $60MM through 2020. Finnegan, meanwhile, managed a 2.70 ERA and struck out 14 in 10 innings before going on the DL in mid-April, though he also walked nine. Last season, his first full year as a starter, he managed a 3.98 ERA over a team-high 30 starts.
  • While the Reds’ pitching has been disastrous, their position players have been a different story. That group paces the majors in fWAR (13.0), and a large chunk of the unit’s production has come from NL fWAR leader Zack Cozart (3.3). The shortstop produced at respectable levels over the previous two seasons, but he wasn’t anything close to the superstar-caliber performer he has been this season. With that in mind, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs took a look at Cozart’s early success, including a ridiculous .351/.436/.623 line in 225 plate appearances, and came away skeptical that the 31-year-old has truly broken out offensively. There’s nothing in Cozart’s batted-ball data that shows he’s a great hitter now, observes Cameron, who urges the Reds to sell high on him if they can. Cozart is in the final year of his contract, making him a prime trade candidate if Cincinnati goes the expected route and sells at the deadline.
  • Mets ace Noah Syndergaard, out since late April with a torn lat, told Boomer and Carton of WFAN on Thursday that he feels “great” (via Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog). However, Syndergaard’s return isn’t exactly imminent. “I probably won’t be able to pick up a ball for quite some time,” he said. “I have no pain right now, but I want to make sure my lat is nice and stretched out and flexible before I’m ready to go.” Syndergaard should’ve been able to throw off flat ground by now, contends Cerrone, who wonders if the 24-year-old will even pitch again this season if he doesn’t return to throwing by the end of the month.

Alfredo Simon Signs With Long Island Ducks

The Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks have announced that they’ve signed and activated righty Alfredo Simon (as SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo noted on Twitter). Simon is a client of MVP Sports Group.

The 36-year-old Simon had three successful seasons with the Reds from 2012 through 2014, but struggled in 2015 after heading to Detroit for Eugenio Suarez and a prospect, and was even worse after returning to Cincinnati last season. Simon finished 2016 with a 9.36 ERA, 6.0 K/9 and 4.8 BB/9 over 58 2/3 innings mostly spent in the Reds’ rotation, then had arthroscopic shoulder surgery.

Simon was eligible for free agency last offseason but did not sign, which perhaps isn’t surprising given his 2016 struggles and injury issues. Simon also seemingly has personal baggage — he was accused but ultimately acquitted of involuntary manslaughter in the Dominican Republic in 2011 and settled a civil suit over sexual assault allegations in 2015, although these issues did not seem to have much effect on his ability to find employment before his performance nosedived.

Simon will presumably try to use his stint with the Ducks as a possible springboard to a return to the big leagues. He’ll join a Ducks roster that currently includes former Major Leaguers like Jordan Pacheco, Lew Ford, Marc Krauss, Eury De La Rosa and Chin-hui Tsao, among others.

Cafardo’s Latest: Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Quintana, Cueto, Samardzija, Rangers, Cozart

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe looks at nine teams who are trending upward this season and nine teams who are on the downward swing in his latest notes column.  These rankings (and Cafardo’s piece in general) contain several hot stove items as teams look to be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline.  The highlights…

  • The Yankees are looking for a third baseman, according to league sources.  Chase Headley got off to a hot start but scuffled badly in May, posting just a .446 OPS in 90 plate appearances last month.  Top prospect Gleyber Torres has been getting some reps at third base in the minors amidst rumors that he could be promoted later this season, though New York could prefer a more proven veteran for the hot corner if the team is chasing a pennant.  Headley is still owed $21.6MM through the end of the 2018 season, though the Yankees have shown a willingness to reduce the playing time of other highly-paid veterans in the past if they aren’t producing.
  • “Most talent evaluators” believe the Dodgers will make a play for the top starter available at the deadline.  The Dodgers’ rotation has combined for 6.2 fWAR (second in baseball) and a 3.94 ERA (third in baseball), though given the number of injury concerns within their staff, it wouldn’t be a shock if L.A. pursued yet another notable arm.
  • Cafardo also suggests that the Cubs will look to acquire a top starter, even if they’re one of the teams on the “trending down” list.  Cafardo believes the retirement of clubhouse leader David Ross has had a bigger impact on the Cubs than the team is willing to admit.
  • Some teams that were in on Jose Quintana have cooled their interest thanks to the southpaw’s rough start to the season.  There has been some questions about whether Quintana is healthy, though the White Sox say he is healthy.  Quintana has a 5.60 ERA in 64 1/3 innings, with career highs in BB/9 (3.36) and homer rate (13%) combining with a career-low 37.8% ground ball rate.  On the plus side, he also has a career-best 8.96 K/9 and ERA indicators are all over a run lower than his 5.60 real-world ERA.
  • “Don’t look for major subtractions” from the Giants, even if the team doesn’t make any additions at the deadline.  Cafardo doesn’t expect the Giants to deal the likes of Johnny Cueto or Jeff Samardzija.  I would imagine San Francisco is hoping to make a quick return to contention next season, though if Cueto gives them an indication that he’ll opt out of his contract this winter, a trade could be explored.
  • The Rangers are also a team that won’t go into full-scale selling mode, so Cafardo expects them to wait and see if they should pursue starting pitching help for a run at a wild card slot.
  • Zack Cozart has often been mentioned in trade rumors over the last couple of years as the Reds have been rebuilding, though one AL GM wonders why Cincinnati hasn’t instead explored an extension with the veteran shortstop.  The Reds’ long-term plan is to have Jose Peraza at short and Dilson Herrera at second, so on paper, Cozart makes more sense as a trade chip than a building block.  While Cozart is mashing the ball and playing his usual excellent defense, he also turns 32 in August and may be declining by the time the Reds are again ready to contend.
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