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Boras Targeting $100MM+ For Shin-Soo Choo

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Last month, one MLB executive told Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com that Shin-Soo Choo could fetch $90-$100MM on the open market this winter.  It's a number that probably seems high to many, but agent Scott Boras thinks that figure is actually on the low side.

"As a custom of the industry, prognostications by executives this time of year are dramatically divergent from the real market," Boras told Heyman. "I don't think anyone correctly predicted what Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford got."

Heyman checked in with three other execs on guesses for Choo – two said $75MM over five years and one threw out $56MM for four.  Two of the executives were probably using B.J. Upton's $75.5MM, five-year deal as a comp, and the other was likely looking at Michael Bourn's four-year, $48MM pact with the Indians (and possibly Nick Swisher's four-year, $56MM contract as well).  Boras argues that none of those estimates are on the mark because, in part, they are working off of the assumption that five years is as high as a club will go.  

The agent notes that Werth got seven years from the Nationals, and while Choo isn't exactly a spring chicken, he is the same age (31) that Werth was when he inked his deal. Choo also actually boasts a slightly better career slash line than Werth.  He adds that Choo's value could also get a boost thanks to his ability to play center field and bat leadoff (though a look at defensive metrics like UZR and DRS indicate that Choo is clearly not cut out for center field).

If Choo's next deal is worth $100MM or more, it would be more than just surprising, it would be historical.  Of the 43 players that have received nine-figure deals, only six - Werth, Zack Greinke, Ryan Zimmerman, Mike Hampton, Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran - had just one All-Star selection before putting pen to paper.  Choo, meanwhile, has never made an All-Star team.

So far, Choo has already been linked to the Mets and Cubs, and he should have plenty of other suitors this offseason. Choo reportedly "loves" Cincinnati, but GM Walt Jocketty was candid earlier in the year in expressing that it would likely be difficult for the team to afford Choo beyond 2013.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Reds Release Kyle Lotzkar

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The Reds have released right-hander Kyle Lotzkar, MLBTR has learned. The 23-year-old was designated for assignment earlier in the month along with fellow righty Josh Ravin to clear roster space for Johnny Cueto and Sean Marshall, each of whom was returning from the 60-day DL.

Lotzkar, 23, was a supplemental-round pick (53rd overall) by the Reds in 2007 as compensation for the loss of Scott Schoeneweis to free agency. At the time of the draft, Baseball America wrote that Lotzkar had established himself as the clear second-best prospect in Canada behind right-hander Phillipe Aumont, praising Lotzkar's projectable frame and potential for two plus pitches.

Lotzkar ranked in the Reds' Top 30 prospects, per BA, in each of the past six seasons, coming in at No. 12 prior to the 2013 campaign. In their most recent analysis, BA noted that Lotzkar possessed some of the best stuff in Cincinnati's system when at his best, calling his power curveball and 90-94 mph fastball both above-average. Health has never been a given with Lotzkar, however, as he's battled through Tommy John and a stress fracture in his right elbow since being drafted.

In 38 innings for the Reds this season, Lotzkar posted an 8.05 ERA and 37 walks, though he still boasted an impressive 41 strikeouts. Striking batters out has never been an issue for Lotzkar, and his command has typically been significantly better than it was in 2013, as evidenced by career marks of 10.5 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9.

Quick Hits: Kendrick, Bradley, Balentien, Brennaman

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This Sunday is Mariano Rivera Day at Yankee Stadium — a day set aside to commemorate the Hall of Fame career of the greatest closer in baseball history. However, as the New York Post's Ken Davidoff writes, Rivera came close to never saving a game in Yankee pinstripes. Prior to the 1996 season, the Yankees debated flipping Rivera to the Mariners in exchange for offensively challenged shortstop Felix Fermin because they weren't sure a hot prospect by the name of Derek Jeter was ready. Several members of the Yankees staff, including then-assistant-GM Brian Cashman and then-manager Joe Torre talked president George Steinbrenner out of the deal. Jeter went on to win the AL Rookie of the Year award, while Rivera finished third in the Cy Young voting with 107 2/3 innings of dominant relief work. Here's more from around the league…

  • Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick will be shut down after getting a second opinion on his injured right shoulder, reports MLB.com's Todd Zolecki. Though the move could be purely precautionary, Kendrick had expected to return to the rotation. As Zolecki notes, any concern over Kendrick's shoulder could play a role in the team's decision whether to offer him salary arbitration. The 29-year-old is set to reach his fourth and final season of arbitration eligibility, and will be due a raise on the $4.5MM he earned last year. He has struggled to a 4.70 ERA in 182 innings on the season, his worst campaign since 2010. Advanced metrics see things somewhat differently, though they do not necessarily make him look much more appealing in broader terms: Kendrick's 4.01 FIP and 4.15 xFIP are actually the second-best tallies of his career. By measure of SIERA, the hurler has never posted a sub-4.00 season.
  • Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers says that phenom Archie Bradley will not reach the bigs this year, reports Steve Gilbert of MLB.com. "To add him to the roster in the winter when roster spots are very valuable to us — and the team being pretty much out of contention — didn't make a lot of sense," said Towers. The 21-year-old starter will, however, get a chance to earn a spot in the club's 2014 rotation in spring training, according to the Snakes' GM.
  • Wladimir Balentien's historic season in Japan has led to speculation that he might be a big league target in spite of his long-term deal with the Yakult Swallows. For his part, however, Balentien insists he has had no thoughts of a move, per a Nikkan Sports report (link in Japanese) transmitted via Twitter by Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker. "No. I'm surprised that's come up," said Balentien in reference to the rumors."I'm with the Swallows for four years."
  • Marty Brennaman, the Reds' radio voice since 1974, has just inked a new three-year deal at age 71, reports Nick Hurm of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Brennaman received the Ford C. Frick Award over thirteen years back, and partnered with fellow legend Joe Nuxhall for over thirty seasons. 

Jeff Todd contributed to this post.

NL Central Notes: Liriano, Choo, Gregg

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MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince offers up a list of what he considers to be the Top 10 acquisitions of this past offseason, headlined by the Pirates' signing of Francisco Liriano. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com has also tabbed Liriano as the best open-market pick-up of 2013. Recently, MLBTR's Steve Adams got GM Neal Huntington's take on that signing as well as some other recent offseason acquisitions. Here are a few more notes from the National League's Central division:

  • A Reds player told John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link) that pending free agent outfielder Shin-Soo Choo "loves it" in Cincinnati and that teammates have been "working on him"to stay in town. Of course, with several big contracts already on the books, and with Billy Hamilton potentially ready to help at the MLB level, it has been fairly questioned whether the Reds would be in the mix for Choo. 
  • Cinci GM Walt Jocketty says the team is in fact interested in bringing back Choo, fellow Enquirer newsman C. Trent Rosecrans reports. "We feel we have a good fit for him," Jocketty explained. "We have a winning team that is built to win." The GM implied that the team had hoped to talk extension with Choo's agent, Scott Boras, earlier this year. "We've expressed to him all year [sic] our interest in re-signing him," said Jocketty. "He's wanted to wait or maybe Scott wants to wait until the year is over. We have interest in re-signing. We'll do everything we can to make that happen." Now set to hit the market after an outstanding season, Choo's price tag figures to be higher than it would have been in a mid-year extension scenario. He currently occupies the fifth slot on the 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings of MLBTR's Tim Dierkes.
  • After apparently misunderstanding comments from manager Dale Sveum regarding save opportunities down the stretch, Cubs closer Kevin Gregg blasted the organization in the media. As detailed by ESPNChicago.com's Bruce Levine and Jesse Rogers, GM Theo Epstein says that he could release Gregg, and will consider the decision overnight. Epstein explained that the team had no intentions of removing Gregg from his role, but instead wanted to allow recent acquisition Pedro Strop to finish a few games. 
  • Even if Gregg holds on with Chicago for the rest of the year, the incident — along with Strop's audition — could impact whether the team has any interest in bringing him back next year. Though he has cooled down considerably after a remarkable comeback in the season's earlygoing, Gregg has notched 32 saves on the year. Either way, as Mike Axisa of CBSSports.com notes, Gregg recently triggered a $500k bonus by finishing his 50th game of the year.

Brewers Claim Josh Ravin

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The Brewers have claimed Josh Ravin off waivers from the Reds, according to Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com (via Twitter).  The right-hander took to Twitter himself to confirm the transaction. 

Ravin was designated for assignment by Cincinnati earlier this week.  The 25-year-old posted a 5.82 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 6.7 BB/9 in 51 innings of relief between Double-A and Triple-A this season.  He boasts a career 8.1 K/9 and 6.1 BB/9 across parts of eight minor league seasons.

To keep up with the status of all players in DFA limbo, be sure to check out the MLBTR DFA Tracker.

Free Agent Profile: Bronson Arroyo

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Barring an injury in the next 12 days, Bronson Arroyo will be the only pitcher in baseball to make at least 32 starts per year from 2005 to present.  Even Dan Haren, C.C. Sabathia, and Mark Buehrle can't make that claim.  Arroyo, 37 in February, came into his own after a March 2006 trade from the Red Sox to the Reds, but during that time he's never hit the open market as a free agent despite never getting a guarantee exceeding three years.

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Strengths/Pros

When you hear a pitcher praised for "taking the ball every fifth day," that doesn't mean that he literally never misses a turn in the rotation.  But that truly can be said for the rubber-armed Arroyo, as explained above.  Not only does Arroyo make all of his starts, but he's good for six-plus innings each time out.  He projects for about 205 innings this year, right around his recent annual average.  Arroyo will likely be joined by only Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, and Hiroki Kuroda as 200-inning free agent pitchers.

Arroyo doesn't just take the ball; he adds positive value.  He'll likely finish with a sub-4.00 ERA in four of his last five seasons, and it's down to 3.56 at the moment.  We recently extolled the virtues of Nolasco's walk rates, but Arroyo's is even better.  In fact, only Cliff Lee and Haren have walked fewer batters per nine innings since 2011.

We'll reference Arroyo's age as a negative in free agency, but the fact that he'll pitch at 37 next year is the reason he can expect a two-year deal at best.  Signing Arroyo lacks upside, but one or two years for him seems safer than four for Matt Garza.  As for a qualifying offer?  I doubt Arroyo gets one, as the perenially budget-conscious Reds won't want to risk paying him $14MM next year, even if he says he wants a multiyear deal.

Arroyo is also solid defensively, having picked up a Gold Glove award in 2010.

Weaknesses/Cons

It's always scary to give decent money to a guy with an 87 mile per hour fastball, with the concern that he'll lose another tick of velocity and start throwing batting practice.  He's got one of the lowest swinging-strike rates in the free agent class.  Arroyo is a low-strikeout, pitch-to-contact hurler, and he's had multiple years where he's allowed around ten hits per nine innings.  When that happens, it results in a lot of baserunners even with a low walk rate.  On top of that, Arroyo is mostly a flyball pitcher, so he's relatively prone to the longball.

Arroyo also lacks upside; it's easier to picture Garza, Tim Lincecum, Masahiro Tanaka, or even Scott Kazmir and Phil Hughes ascending (or returning) to the heights of a front of the rotation Major League starter.

Arroyo has a history of avoiding injury, but how many 37-year-olds have reached 200 innings in recent years?  If we include Kuroda for 2013, it has happened only four times in the last five seasons: two seasons from Kuroda, and two from R.A. Dickey.

Personal

Arroyo is an accomplished musician, putting out a CD in '05 and performing in concert at various functions regularly.  He's a four-time winner of the Reds' Joe Nuxhall Good Guy Award.

Market

As the Reds' longest-tenured player, Arroyo's first choice is to stay, but it's less likely if they don't offer multiple years.  Back in January 2011, Arroyo told Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald the other two teams he'd be interested in pitching for are the Rays (he resides in Florida in the offseason) and the Red Sox (his former team).  It is difficult to picture either AL team offering Arroyo a multiyear deal, however.

Expected Contract

Arroyo made it clear earlier this month he considers this his final shot at a multiyear deal.  I think there is a chance of a two-year offer, along the lines of Ryan Dempster's $26.5MM contract.  In the end I predict a two-year, $24MM contract for Arroyo.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Bidding For Alexander Guerrero “Wide Open” Again

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3:43pm: The Dodgers are no longer willing to pay Guerrero $32MM and may not pursue him at all, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal notes that the team's position may merely be strategic; they could be backing off that number simply so Boras doesn't use that as a baseline when negotiating with other clubs.

3:15pm: Just over a week ago, it seemed that Cuban infielder Alexander Guerrero was close to signing a five-year, $32MM contract with the Dodgers. SInce that time, however, the 26-year-old has left his former agent, Rudy Santin, in favor of the Boras Corporation. Boras described the bidding as "wide open," writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, who reports that the Red Sox, Reds, Rangers and Giants all have interest in Guerrero and are fighting the Dodgers for his services.

MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez tweeted yesterday that Sanchez is looking for an overall better deal than the previously rumored agreement. Dodgers GM Ned Colletti wouldn't comment when asked by Heyman about the situation, stating that he wouldn't publicly discusss contract negotiations.

The Rangers seem a curious fit for Guerrero, with Elvis Andrus, Ian Kinsler and Jurickson Profar all already in the fold. The Reds would have to use him at shortstop or perhaps third base due to the presence of Brandon Phillips, despite the fact that many scouts have predicted Guerrero will have to transition to second base to play in the Majors. Boston has Dustin Pedroia at second base, and Xander Bogaerts projects as their long-term answer at shortstop. The Giants, too, are a curious fit with Marco Scutaro under contract, Brandon Crawford at short and Pablo Sandoval at third base.

Guerrero hit .290/.402/.576 with 21 home runs in 328 plate appearances in his final season inSerie Nacional. As Matthew Pouliot of NBC Sports pointed out last January, Guerrero OPSed .997 or better each year in Cuba from 2009-11. Heyman points out that Guerrero could have an impact on Robinson Cano's market this offseason if bidding drags on and teams believe Guerrero to be superior to other second base options, as Guerrero will naturally be more affordable than Cano.

Reds Designate Josh Ravin, Kyle Lotzkar For Assignment

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The Reds have designated right-handers Josh Ravin and Kyle Lotzkar for assignment in order to make room on the 40-man roster for Johnny Cueto and Sean Marshall, each of whom is returning from the 60-day disabled list, according to assistant director of media relations Jamie Ramsey (on Twitter).

Ravin, 25, was the Reds' fifth-round pick out of high school back in 2006. The California native posted a 5.82 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 6.7 BB/9 in 51 innings of relief between Double-A and Triple-A in the Cincinnati organization this season. Solid strikeout totals and troubling command have become the norm for Ravin, as evidenced by his career 8.1 K/9 and 6.1 BB/9 in parts of eight minor league seasons.

Lotzkar, 23, was a supplemental-round pick (53rd overall) by the Reds in 2007 as compensation for the loss of Scott Schoeneweis to free agency. Like Ravin, he posted impressive strikeout totals but struggled with his command, particularly in 2013 when he whiffed 41 batters in 38 innings between High-A and Double-A but issued 37 walks. His command problems haven't always been so extreme; in 86 1/3 innings for Double-A Pensacola in 2012, Lotzkar posted a 96-to-53 K/BB ratio.

Quick Hits: Balentien, Marlins, Abreu, Yankees

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Wladimir Balentien's journey to becoming Japan's single-season home run record holder took a number of twists and turns through the Mariners and Reds organizations, ESPN's Jerry Crasnick writes. Balentien, now with the Tokyo Yakult Swallows, has 57 homers this year, topping Tuffy Rhodes, Alex Cabrera and Sadaharu Oh. Before that, though, he made his way through the Mariners' system, then went to the Reds in a minor trade after former Seattle GM Bill Bavasi took a job there. He played part of two years in the Reds organization and failed to find a lasting spot on their big-league roster. "For me, he was just one of those guys who ran out of time," says Bavasi. "It's not like there were two clubs that passed on him and he went over there and played great. There were 30 clubs that passed on him, and he went over there and found his niche. It's kind of remarkable what he's done." Here are more notes from around baseball.

  • The Marlins have been scouting Cuban first baseman Jose Abreu, reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Frisaro also notes that the Marlins are scouting "a couple" of young Cuban pitchers at an MLB showcase in the Dominican Republic. Abreu is expected to command an enormous contract, so it would be surprising if the Marlins ended up being serious contenders for his services. Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun Sentinel tweets that, while the Marlins are interested in Abreu, they probably won't be able to or willing to spend the money necessary to sign him.
  • The Yankees' outlook for 2014 is bleak, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. Robinson Cano, Hiroki Kuroda, Mariano Rivera, Curtis Granderson and Andy Pettitte will all be free agents. While some of them might be back, many Yankees who are already under control for 2014 are signed to ugly contracts. Sherman points out that the Yankees have also seen few positive developments from their young players this season, and that 2013 hasn't seen the debut of a single blue-chip prospect.

Minor Moves: Gonzalez, Fedroff, Rincon, Okajima

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We'll keep track of today's minor moves here..

  • The Astros outrighted Edgar Gonzalez to Double-A Corpus Christi, according to the MLB.com transactions page. Houston signed Gonzalez to a minor-league deal in May after he was designated for assignment by the Blue Jays and opted for free agency after clearing waivers. Gonzalez struggled in his 10 innings with the Astros' major league club, coughing up a 7.20 ERA. 
  • The Indians outrighted outfielder Tim Fedroff and shortstop Juan Diaz to their Triple-A affiliate, according to the MLB.com transactions page. Fedroff, 26, has hit .242/.334/.306 in 594 plate appearances for the Triple-A Columbus Clippers this year. Diaz, 24, has a .242/.317/.348 line over 495 plate appearances for the same team.
  • The Royals outrighted third baseman Edinson Rincon to Double-A Northwest Arkansas, according to the MLB.com transactions page. He's appeared in just 24 games for Royals minor league affiliates this season.
  • The Reds released Justin Freeman, according to Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com (on Twitter). Freeman gave up two runs in a one-inning appearance for the Reds this year, but has a 3.57 ERA in 307 1/3 career minor league innings.
  • The Athletics announced that Hideki Okajima has been outrighted to the club's Triple-A affiliate. The veteran reliever was designated for assignment by Oakland earlier this week to create space for fellow bullpen arm Pat Neshek.  The 37-year-old Okajima pitched to a 4.22 ERA for Triple-A Sacramento with 9.5 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 42 2/3 innings of work. He also saw some brief time in the Majors with Oakland this season, allowing a run on seven hits and a pair of walks in four innings of work.
  • The outright of Okajima three leaves players in DFA limbo, according to the DFA Tracker: James McDonald, Alex Liddi,and Hector Ambriz.
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