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Joe Smith Announces Retirement

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Veteran reliever Joe Smith announced his retirement on Wednesday, calling it a career after spending parts of 15 seasons in the Major Leagues. Via his representatives at Excel Sports Management, Smith issued a lengthy statement thanking the Mets, Guardians, Angels, Cubs, Blue Jays, Astros, Mariners and Twins organizations in addition to his coaches, teammates, trainers and family for supporting him throughout his career.

Selected by the Mets in the third round of the 2006 draft, the now-39-year-old Smith was in the majors less than one year later and practically never looked back. That’s in large part thanks to the fact that Smith established himself as a quality big league reliever right out of the gate, pitching 44 1/3 innings of 3.45 ERA ball with a 22% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate as a rookie.

That set off a remarkable run of 13 straight seasons with an ERA of 3.83 or better for Smith — including five years with a sub-3.00 mark and two with a sub-2.00. While the sidearming Smith was rarely thrust into the ninth-inning spotlight (30 career saves), he’s one of the most consistent and prolific setup men in the game’s history. Since holds began being tracked, Smith’s 228 rank him in the top five all-time. His blend of durability and consistently strong performance kept him in leverage spots for more than a decade.

Smith wasn’t on the 2016 Cubs’ World Series roster after missing most of the final month of the season due to injury, but he did take home a ring that year and pitched in parts of five other postseasons (including in 2019, when he pitched in the World Series as the Astros finished runner-up to the Nationals). As was the case during his regular-season performances, he remained quite strong in October. In 14 career playoff innings, Smith yielded only four earned runs on eight hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts (2.57 ERA).

All told, Smith will walk away from the game with 762 1/3 innings of 3.14 ERA ball under his belt. In his career, he pitched for eight MLB clubs, notching a 55-34 record with 30 saves, 228 holds, a 21.1% strikeout rate and an 8.1% walk rate. Smith didn’t post an ERA over 4.00 until his age-37 season in 2021, and in 15 MLB seasons he never had a single year where he ERA climbed to 5.00 or higher. He picked up more than 13 years of Major League service time and earned more than $51MM in salary over the course of a quietly excellent career. Best wishes to Smith and his family in whatever lies in store for his post-playing days.

Guardians Sign Anthony Banda, Dom Nuñez To Minor League Deals

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The Guardians announced today that left-hander Anthony Banda and catcher Dom Nuñez have been signed to minor league deals with non-roster invites to Spring Training. Both players are repped by the ALIGND Sports Agency.

Banda, 30, is coming off a rough season. He signed a minor league deal with the Nationals and made their Opening Day squad but was designated for assignment and outrighted off the roster a month later. He tossed just seven innings over 10 appearances, allowing five earned runs. He went on to throw 65 1/3 innings at Triple-A with a 7.58 ERA.

That was obviously not an ideal season, but he’s looked better in the past. From 2017 to 2022, he suited up for the Diamondbacks, Rays, Mets, Pirates, Blue Jays and Yankees, making 80 major league appearances over those six years. His 5.64 ERA in that time isn’t terribly impressive but a .358 batting average on balls in play and 67.9% strand rate may have pushed some extra runs across the board. His 20.1% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate were both close to average in that stretch, leading to a 4.25 FIP and 4.35 SIERA that are each more than a full run better than the ERA.

The Guards currently project to have Sam Hentges as the only southpaw in their big league bullpen, with Tim Herrin on the 40-man roster as optionable depth. If Banda could put the last year behind him, he could perhaps earn his way into that mix, though he’s out of options and wouldn’t be able to be sent back down without first being exposed to waivers.

Nuñez, 29, didn’t make it to the majors last year. He spent 2023 in Triple-A, signing minor league pacts with the Cubs and then Pirates. Between the two organizations, he struck out in 27.1% of his plate appearances but also drew walks at a 15.3% clip, leading to a .187/.326/.311 batting line.

Prior to last year, he was able to appear in 111 major league games for the Rockies from 2019 to 2022. The work at the plate was similar to his 2023 results, as he slashed .180/.280/.373 while striking out at a 34% rate but also walking 12.4% of the time. Behind the plate, he’s generally considered a strong pitch framer, getting positive marks in that department from FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Statcast.

The Guardians are set to open the year with Bo Naylor and Austin Hedges as their catching tandem. David Fry is on the roster but he can play other positions and also has options. Nuñez will give the club a bit of veteran depth in a non-roster capacity and could be called upon if someone above him on the depth chart suffers an injury.

Guardians Sign Carlos Carrasco To Minor League Deal

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TODAY: Carrasco will earn a base salary of $2MM if he makes the Guardians’ active roster, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes.

JAN. 27: Veteran right-hander Carlos Carrasco is in agreement with the Guardians on a minor league deal with an invite to big league Spring Training, according to Zack Meisel of The Athletic.

It’s a reunion between the sides, as Carrasco first joined Cleveland in a trade with the Phillies back in 2009 and made his big league debut shortly thereafter. The righty spent more than a decade with the club, pitching to a 3.77 ERA and 3.42 FIP across 1,242 1/3 innings of work in Cleveland. While he struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness early in his tenure with the club, Carrasco eventually settled in to become a quality mid-rotation arm for the club and even earned votes for the AL Cy Young award in both 2015 and 2017. On the heels of a strong 2020 season where Carrasco pitched to a 2.91 ERA across 12 starts, the veteran right-hander was included alongside Francisco Lindor in the blockbuster deal that brought Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez, Josh Wolf and Isaiah Greene to Cleveland.

Upon joining Lindor in Queens, the then-34-year-old Carrasco quickly began to struggle. Though he posted solid back-of-the-rotation numbers for the Mets in 2022, both the 2021 and 2023 seasons saw Carrasco post ERAs north of 6.00 while managing less than 100 innings of work due to injuries. As Carrasco has entered his mid-thirties, it’s become increasingly difficult for the righty to stay on the field. He battled a hamstring strain and an elbow procedure in 2021, an oblique strain in 2022, and in 2023 suffered from both a bone spur in his elbow and a late-season finger fracture.

Now headed into his age-37 season with a 4.87 ERA in 443 2/3 innings of work dating back to the 2019 season, it’s fair to wonder how much the veteran hurler still has left in the tank. With that being said, bringing a longtime of the club back into the fold on a minor league deal is an incredibly low-risk decision for the Guardians to make. Even if Carrasco is unable to return to the form he flashed in 2022 and provide the club with quality back-of-the-rotation production, bringing a beloved veteran of 14 big league seasons into the club for Spring Training can only help Cleveland’s young rotation arms (such as Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams) as they look to improve upon strong rookie performances in their sophomore seasons.

Guardians Sign Tyler Beede To Minors Contract

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12:07PM: The Astros, Marlins, Padres, Pirates, Twins, and Yankees all had some interest in Beede, according to KPRC 2’s Ari Alexander (links to X).  Beede has shown some improved velocity, with a fastball that now sits at 97mph after averaging 94.6mph during his previous MLB tenure.  There are incentive bonuses within the contract tied to both starting and bullpen appearances, and Beede can opt out of his deal if he doesn’t make the Guardians’ Opening Day roster,

11:11AM: The Guardians announced that right-hander Tyler Beede has been signed to a minor league deal containing an invitation to big league Spring Training.  Beede is making his return to North American baseball after pitching with NPB’s Yomiuri Giants in 2023.

Drafted 14th overall by the (San Francisco) Giants in 2014, Beede drew some top-100 attention heading into the 2017 minor league season, yet he struggled in his first taste of Triple-A action.  The struggles continued into 2018 through Beede made his big league debut with two appearances for San Francisco, but some quality Triple-A work in 2019 didn’t translate to success in a longer look at a MLB level.  Beede then underwent a Tommy John surgery in 2020 that cost him the entirety of that season and a big chunk of 2021, and returning to good health didn’t help his results, as Beede had a 5.14 ERA over 61 1/3 innings for the Giants and Pirates in 2022.

With a 5.34 ERA to show for his 187 career innings in the majors, Beede headed to Japan for a fresh start, and posted a 3.99 ERA over 49 2/3 innings for the Tokyo-based Giants.  Working mostly as a reliever, Beede had a modest 16.36% strikeout rate over his 30 total appearances.

It was enough to get Cleveland’s attention for a minors deal, and the 30-year-old Beede will now get a chance to win a roster spot at the Guards’ spring camp.  There’s no risk to such a deal from the Guardians’ perspective, and the team’s longstanding track record of pitching development could perhaps unlock something to help Beede finally get on track as a consistent Major League pitcher.  Beede also has a personal connection with Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt, as the two were teammates in San Francisco in 2019.

If all goes well, Beede could provide depth for either the bullpen or rotation.  In the latter category, the Guardians have parted ways with both Cal Quantrill and Zach Plesac this winter, so some type of additional starting pitching would help Cleveland withstand injuries or any downturns from their young rotation core.

Josh Naylor Discusses Contract Situation With Guardians

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First baseman Josh Naylor has been a mainstay of the Guardians’ lineup for the past two seasons but free agency isn’t far over the horizon. He’s now over four years of major league service and slated for the open market after 2025. He was recently asked at Guards Fest about the possibility of an extension and it doesn’t appear as though there’s much smoke there.

“I’m going to leave that to them. You can ask them that question,” Naylor said, per Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal. “Obviously, Cleveland’s an incredible place to play. I love my teammates, I love my coaches and, yeah, my brother’s here, too, which is awesome.”

Naylor, 27 in June, has hit 37 home runs over the past two seasons. His 7.2% walk rate is subpar but he’s been tough to strike out, with a 14.9% rate in that department. He slashed a combined .282/.336/.471 over those two campaigns for a 124 wRC+, indicating he was 24% better than league average over that span. He was also given solid grades for his glovework at first, helping him tally a combined 4.3 wins above replacement over those two years, in the eyes of FanGraphs.

Looking at the standard operating procedure of the franchise, there’s more precedent for a trade than an extension in this situation. As they look to continually compete with small budgets, the club has often traded players approaching free agency, bringing back younger and cheaper players. That’s how Naylor came to the club in the first place, as the Guards flipped Mike Clevinger and two other players to the Padres for a six-player package that included a young Naylor. In addition to Clevinger, they have also traded players like Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Francisco Lindor and others as their club control was dwindling.

They have given some extensions over the years, but usually for players earlier in their careers. Players like Andrés Giménez, Emmanuel Clase, Trevor Stephan and Myles Straw have signed extensions with the club in recent years, but each of those guys agreed to their deals before reaching arbitration when their earning power was still fairly low. Naylor qualified for arbitration a year ago and made a salary of $3.35MM in 2023. He’s already agreed to a $6.5MM salary this year and will be slated for one more raise next year.

The notable exception to these trends is José Ramírez, who signed a second extension to stick with the club instead of getting traded or becoming a free agent. That seems to have been a perfect storm situation, with Ramírez having admitted that he was told the club couldn’t pay him what he was worth. But since he was happy in Cleveland and wanted to stay, he decided to leave money on the table and accept an extension rather than winding up on the trade block like so many others before him.

Those circumstances all suggest Naylor is more likely to be traded than extended. Beyond his contractual situation, there’s also the fact that the club may have a ready-made first base replacement. Kyle Manzardo was acquired from the Rays in last summer’s Aaron Civale deal, yet another instance of an arb-eligible player being shipped out of Cleveland for prospect help. Manzardo is a first baseman who has yet to make his major league debut but has hit well throughout his minor league career thus far. Like Naylor, he is generally tough to strike out with the ability to hit a few bombs.

The club doesn’t have a strict designated hitter at the moment, so both could fit into a lineup. That will likely be the plan if Manzardo hits well in Spring Training this year or early in the 2024 season. But if he is able to successfully prove himself as a capable big league bat, it would fit with Cleveland’s typical M.O. for the Naylor trade rumors to pick up steam. This winter, he’s already reportedly drawn trade interest from the Cubs, Mariners and Pirates.

Latest Details On Diamond Bankruptcy

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The Diamond Sports Group saga took another turn yesterday when the broadcasting company announced a restructuring agreement that’d see debt holders invest $450MM to keep the company afloat. As part of the deal, Amazon would receive streaming rights for the NBA, NHL and MLB teams for which Diamond currently holds those rights.

While there’s an agreement in place between Diamond and Amazon, it’s worth emphasizing that the plan can’t become official without approval from the bankruptcy court. That’ll take time as the court and Diamond’s creditors sort through the details.

Evan Drellich and Mike Vorkunov of the Athletic report that Amazon would pay $115MM, with an additional $50MM investment possible. While that’d entitle them to streaming rights for every NBA and NHL team that contracts with Diamond, it’s only applicable to five MLB teams. Diamond has streaming rights for the Royals, Tigers, Marlins, Brewers and Rays. Those clubs would still be broadcast on cable on Diamond’s Bally Sports networks, but in-market streaming access would move to Prime Video. MLB has opposed selling additional streaming rights to Diamond, but Alden González of ESPN reports that Amazon’s involvement is not conditional on further streaming acquisitions.

Until this week, it had seemed likely Diamond would abandon the regional sports network entirely after the 2024 MLB season. The agreement with Amazon represents a significant shift and leaves a few MLB teams in a state of continued uncertainty.

Diamond holds broadcasting deals with 11 MLB teams. The corporation’s attorney said yesterday that nine of those clubs — the Angels, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Marlins, Rays, Reds, Royals and Tigers — will be paid in full for the ’24 campaign (relayed by González). The company is seeking to renegotiate its deals with two others, the Guardians and Rangers, at lesser fees. It is also in discussions with the Twins, whose previous contract with Diamond expired at the end of last season — leaving them as something of a broadcasting free agent.

The Diamond attorney informed the court yesterday that the company has offered terms to each of the Cleveland, Texas and Minnesota organizations to continue broadcasting their games in 2024 (via The Athletic). He said the company expects answers from all three franchises by the start of February. A hearing scheduled for tomorrow morning has been postponed indefinitely so the sides can review the framework of the streaming deal, per Drellich and Vorkunov.

None of the Rangers, Guardians or Twins are obligated to accept reduced rights fees. If they decline, however, it seems likely Diamond will drop the Texas and Cleveland contracts and leave Minnesota without a deal. Diamond already showed a willingness to abandon unprofitable terms during the 2023 season, when it dropped agreements with the Padres and Diamondbacks.

That leaves Texas, Cleveland and Minnesota without a ton of leverage. Diamond’s attorney said one of the organizations (without specifying which) plans to negotiate a deal that would even extend beyond next season, as relayed by The Athletic.

The uncertainty has been reflected in those franchises’ activity, or lack thereof, in free agency. Minnesota declared they were cutting payroll at the start of the offseason. They allowed Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda to depart and have thus far signed one free agent to a major league contract. That was a $950K guarantee for reliever Josh Staumont, who is rehabbing from thoracic outlet surgery.

Texas is coming off a World Series that’d normally spur a team to act aggressively in the offseason. Instead, GM Chris Young indicated they wouldn’t be as active as they’d been in previous winters. The Rangers have signed a few free agents — most notably a two-year, $22MM pact for Tyler Mahle — but they haven’t splurged at the top of the class. The broadcasting situation is commonly cited as a reason they haven’t brought back Jordan Montgomery, who remains on the open market.

Cleveland is never a big spender, so the lack of activity on their end is characteristic. Still, the club is seemingly operating with limited flexibility. They’ve taken on some salary in the Scott Barlow trade and signed Austin Hedges to a $4MM free agent deal.

Whether all those teams can reach a new contract with Diamond should become clear in the next few weeks. Even if they stay on the networks for next season (and potentially beyond), it’d come with some kind of hit to their revenues. Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com reported the Guardians made $55MM in local rights fees last season. It was a similar amount for Minnesota, whom Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports received $54MM in 2023. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote yesterday the Rangers’ deal has paid around $111MM annually.

If any of those teams don’t reach an agreement, they’d join a trio of clubs likely to operate without an RSN deal this year. MLB stepped in to handle in-market broadcasting for Arizona and San Diego last season. While MLB subsidized a portion of the D-Backs and Padres deals last season, commissioner Rob Manfred has made clear they won’t do so next season. Allowing MLB to handle the broadcasts would likely be less profitable for the teams than if they land a new deal with Diamond.

It seems MLB is also going to handle broadcasts for the Rockies, whose contract was dropped by AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain at the end of 2023. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reported this month that MLB is expected to stream Colorado games in-market on its MLB.tv platform, as it is doing with the D-Backs and Padres. The Rockies made roughly $57MM off their broadcasting deal a year ago, Saunders adds.

Cubs Continuing Search For Bullpen Help

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Bolstering the relief corps is “a focus” for the Cubs, writes Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. They’ve shown interest in Guardians’ closer Emmanuel Clase, Levine adds.

Almost every team probably has some degree of interest in Clase. He has led MLB in saves and games finished in each of the last two seasons. The 25-year-old righty has made the All-Star Game in consecutive years. He has essentially been an elite reliever from the time Cleveland was able to put him on the mound.

Cleveland acquired Clase in what turned out to be a very lopsided trade sending former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber to the Rangers during the 2019-20 offseason. His tenure with the club couldn’t have begun much worse, as Clase was suspended for the shortened season after a failed PED test. Once he took the Progressive Field mound, he was dominant. The fireballing righty turned in a 1.29 ERA over 69 2/3 frames as a rookie.

The Guardians signed Clase to a $20MM extension the following April. He responded with a 1.36 ERA over a league-leading 77 appearances. Clase’s numbers took a step back last season, as he allowed 3.22 earned runs per nine. After running a 27.5% strikeout rate between 2021-22, he fanned a slightly below-average 21.2% of hitters last year. Ground-ball rates that had sat north of 60% in each of his first two years in Cleveland dropped, albeit to a still excellent 55% clip.

Even if Clase wasn’t quite as dominant last season, he’s still one of the best relievers in the game. His primary pitch, his cutter, averages more than 99 MPH. He’s one of the sport’s top ground-ball pitchers and rarely issues free passes.

The contract only adds to the appeal. Clase will make just $2.5MM next season. He’s due respective $4.5MM and $6MM salaries in 2025-26. The deal contains $10.5MM club options (with $2MM buyouts) covering 2027-28, although he’s likely to escalate the value of those options to $13MM apiece. He’d also receive a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade. That’s nevertheless affordable enough to comfortably fit in the budget for any team, including the Guardians, at least for the next three seasons.

That seemingly makes it a long shot Cleveland pulls the trigger on a deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported shortly before the Winter Meetings the Guardians were open to offers, however. They’d presumably only do so for a package built around multiple top prospects given Clase’s ceiling and five years of club control.

Clase is one of a number of possibilities. Top free agent reliever Josh Hader remains unsigned. So does Robert Stephenson, arguably the top righty reliever in this year’s class (and a player in whom the Cubs have shown interest). Hector Neris and Phil Maton are solid middle relief options.

A run at anyone in that group would require a pivot from the Cubs’ general approach to the relief corps. Chicago has shied away from notable free agent investments since their signing of Craig Kimbrel. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the Cubs haven’t guaranteed more than one year or $5MM to a free agent bullpen arm over the past five offseasons.

Hoyer spoke generally about that reluctance to commit top dollar in the relief corps. “The elite, elite closer, the leverage they pitch in can make a difference,” he said (via Levine). “But the bullpen performances are the most volatile on the baseball field. … The pen is a higher volatility and aggression area. So you want to put your dollars to use in the areas you are most certain about.”

That could point to a preference to add to the group via trade if possible. The bullpen and third base are potential targets a month from Spring Training. At least week’s Cubs Convention, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer downplayed the chances of signing another starter after the four-year deal for Shota Imanaga (link via Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic).

Hoyer and skipper Craig Counsell have each suggested trade pickup Michael Busch could address their first base vacancy (link from Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). If the Cubs are content with Christopher Morel at designated hitter and the combination of Mike Tauchman and Pete Crow-Armstrong to handle center field, that leaves the hot corner and bullpen as the biggest areas of concern.

Guardians Hire Dan Puente For MLB Coaching Role

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The Guardians have hired Dan Puente for an unspecified role on their major league coaching staff, per a report from The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. Puente, 42, was a 12th-round pick in the 2004 draft by the Orioles and played in the minor leagues for two seasons, though he didn’t make it past the Single-A level before retiring from professional baseball. During his post-playing career, Puente took roles in the Astros and White Sox organizations before eventually landing a hitting coach gig in the Cubs’ minor league system prior to the 2020 campaign. He’s remained with the Cubs as a minor league hitting coach ever since, most recently coaching at High-A South Bend this past season.

While it’s not yet known what role Puente will take on in Cleveland, it’s worth noting that the Guardians lost assistant hitting coach Victor Rodriguez to the Padres earlier this winter when Rodriguez was offered a job as hitting coach under new manager Mike Shildt. Cleveland’s coaching staff has seen some noticeable turnover this winter, headlined by longtime skipper Terry Francona’s retirement from managing. Since Stephen Vogt was hired to take over for Francona as manager, the club has added Craig Albernaz as bench coach and Kai Correa as fielding coordinator. The club’s new coaching staff figures to have their hands full as they look to return to contention after a surprising third place finish in a weak AL Central division last year. The club’s 76-86 record put them two games behind the Tigers for second place and a whopping 11 games back of the Twins for the division crown.

Latest On Diamond Sports Group Bankruptcy

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Major League Baseball and Diamond Sports Group are continuing discussions about the broadcasting conglomerate’s ongoing bankruptcy. A hearing initially scheduled for Wednesday morning was delayed to Friday, January 19, according to Evan Drellich of the Athletic.

That suggests MLB and representatives for Diamond feel there’s still something to be gained from talks. At the same time, it moves ever closer towards Opening Day without a firm resolution for teams whose local broadcasting deals run through the Bally Sports networks.

As recently as last season, Diamond’s Bally Sports RSNs carried in-market broadcasts for 14 teams. The struggling corporation dropped its contracts with the Padres and Diamondbacks midseason, leading MLB to take over local broadcasts for those franchises. Bally’s contract with the Twins ran its course at the end of the 2023 season.

That presently leaves 11 teams* who have deals with Diamond for in-market broadcasting in 2024. However, Diamond has suggested it could abandon its contracts with the Guardians and Rangers this offseason unless the terms of those deals are renegotiated. Meanwhile, Drellich reports that Diamond and MLB are in discussions about a possible contract to carry Twins’ games for another season.

It is unclear if Diamond will operate in any capacity after the ’24 campaign. The Wall Street Journal reported last month the company was in discussions with Amazon about potentially selling streaming rights for a short-term influx of cash that could help keep Diamond afloat.

However, Diamond only holds streaming rights for five of the 11 teams with which it has a TV deal. MLB has been reluctant to provide further streaming opportunities. The New York Post’s Josh Kosman reported on Monday that MLB shot down discussions between Diamond and Amazon — potentially with an eye towards negotiating a separate streaming deal with Amazon directly.

* Those clubs are the Angels, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Guardians, Marlins, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Royals, and Tigers.

Guardians, Shane Bieber Avoid Arbitration

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The Guardians have avoided arbitration with righty Shane Bieber, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. The two sides agreed to a $13.125MM salary for the upcoming season, and his contract includes additional incentives based on Cy Young voting, a potential All-Star appearance and postseason awards voting. Bieber, a client of Rosenhaus Sports Management, is in his final season of club control before reaching free agency and has been a rumored trade candidate throughout the winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected him for a $12.2MM salary.

Bieber’s 2023 season was slowed by injury and was quite arguably his worst since his rookie effort back in 2018. Of course, that’s only relative to the 2020 Cy Young winner’s lofty standards. Bieber still notched a tidy 3.80 ERA in 128 frames and averaged more than six innings per start. He was undeniably a solid starter — just not the clear-cut ace he once was.

Drilling down a bit deeper, Bieber’s 2023 performance carried plenty of red flags, even beyond the forearm and elbow troubles that limited him to 21 starts. The right-hander’s fastball velocity has been on the decline since his 2020 Cy Young win, but this past season’s 91.6 mph was a career-low mark that checked in nearly three miles per hour shy of his 2020 levels. Bieber whiffed a comical 41.4% of his opponents in 2020 but sat at less than half that mark in 2023, with a 20.1% strikeout rate.

Bieber still sports strong walk and ground-ball rates of 6.4% and 47.2%, respectively, but neither is elite. His swinging-strike rate, meanwhile, has plummeted from 17.1% in 2020 to 10.5% this year — below the league average. Bieber also logged career-worst marks in average exit velocity (91.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.2%), placing him in the second and third percentile of the league.

Concerns about the underlying numbers in his 2023 performance will probably drop Bieber’s trade value more than many onlookers would expect, but the $13.125MM salary is still a plenty affordable rate even if he continues to pitch more like a third or fourth starter than the front-of-the-rotation arm he once was. And, of course, given his impressive track record, there’s reason to believe he could rebound in 2024 — perhaps not all the way back to his peak levels but at least closer to his 2021-22 output. The demand for starting pitching far outpaces the supply of available arms as well, which will keep interest in Bieber robust.

The Guardians aren’t rebuilding, to be clear, but they’ve historically traded away their best players before they reach free agency — assuming an extension can’t be reached. Cleveland has shipped out Corey Kluber, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger, among others, as they’ve reached four and five years of service time in recent offseasons. In doing so, they’ve kept their farm stocked and been able to continually churn out quality arms thanks to their nearly unparalleled pitching development prowess. Whether the Guards trade Bieber this winter or hold him into the season, the long-term rotation outlook in Cleveland has turned over. Bieber’s time there is surely drawing to a close, and the future rotation will be anchored by the likes of Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams.

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