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Michael Brantley To Retire

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Outfielder Michael Brantley is going to retire, he tells Jon Morosi of MLB.com. “It’s time for me to be home 24/7, watch my kids grow up, and not miss important milestones,” he said.

Brantley, now 36, has spent over a decade as one of the best hitters in the league but his health has been a significant issue in recent years. In 2022, he played just 64 games before getting shut down with right shoulder discomfort. He eventually required surgery, which wiped out the second half of that campaign. The issue lingered into 2023 and he didn’t make it back to the big leagues until late August. He continued battling soreness even when activated off the injured list and only made 57 plate appearances over 15 games on the year. He made 32 more plate appearances for the Astros in the postseason but hit just .179/.281/.321 in those. He received some interest from the Blue Jays this winter but it appears he will hang up his spikes instead.

In the seventh round of the 2005 draft, Brantley was selected by the Brewers, though he would never appear in the big leagues for that club. In July of 2008, the Brewers sent Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson and a player to be named later to Cleveland for C.C. Sabathia. Though Cleveland was reportedly choosing between multiple players as that PTBNL, they ultimately went with Brantley in October.

In retrospect, that decision could hardly have worked out better. Brantley didn’t immediately hit the ground running in the majors, getting some brief looks in the years after the trade. He started to get regular playing time from 2011 to 2013, hitting .280/.334/.394 over those years for a wRC+ of 101. He only struck out in 11.6% of his plate appearances, just over half of league averages at that time, showcasing a high-contact approach that would come to be one of his signatures. He was given the nickname “Dr. Smooth” at this time, in honor of his aesthetically pleasing approach.

The club clearly believed in the young doctor, signing him to a four-year, $25MM extension going into 2014, with a club option for 2018. Their faith in him paid off, as he immediately had a tremendous breakout season, hitting 20 home runs and only striking out in 8.3% of his plate appearances. His .327/.385/.506 batting line translated to a 151 wRC+, indicating he was 51% better than the league average hitter. He also stole 23 bases and received solid grades for his outfield defense. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 6.5 wins above replacement, while Baseball Reference had him at 7.0. He finished third in American League MVP voting, behind Mike Trout and Victor Martinez.

His 2015 saw him produce similarly, though just a notch below that elite 2014 campaign. After that came some injury struggles, however. He underwent right shoulder surgery after the 2015 campaign and the issue lingered into 2016. He only played 11 games that season and eventually required a second surgery. With Brantley sitting out the remainder of the campaign, Cleveland still made it all the way to Game 7 of the World Series, though they eventually lost to the Cubs.

Brantley was back in 2017 but an ankle strain limited him to 90 games. He hit .299/.357/.444 for a wRC+ of 109, below his previous highs but it was nonetheless encouraging after a mostly lost season. In 2018, he shook off some of the rust and was able to slash .309/.364/.468 for a wRC+ of 125. Cleveland returned to the postseason in those years but fell in the ALDS both times. It seems that everyone in Cleveland knew his time there was likely coming to an end, with a report from Chandler Rome and Zack Meisel of The Athletic relaying that everyone in the room cried during his exit interview as he reached free agency.

The Astros had won the World Series in 2017 but then lost the ALCS in 2018. Looking for a clubhouse leader to replace departed veterans like Carlos Beltrán and Brian McCann, they signed Brantley to a two-year, $32MM deal. He took to the leadership role, quickly earning the new moniker of “Uncle Mike.” The second season of that pact ended up being interrupted by the pandemic but Brantley was healthy enough to play 194 out of 222 possible games. He hit .309/.370/.497 in that time for a wRC+ of 132. The Astros made the playoffs both times but lost the 2019 World Series to the Nationals and were dropped in the 2020 ALCS.

Brantley returned to the Astros on another two-year $32MM deal and had another signature season in 2021, hitting .311/.362/.437 for a wRC+ of 121. The Astros were once again felled in the World Series, this time to Atlanta. As mentioned above, Brantley’s 2022 was cut short by yet another shoulder surgery and he had to miss the second half of the season. Though he wasn’t able to play, the report from Rome and Meisel linked above relays that he led a players’ meeting as they were down 2-1 to the Phillies in the World Series. They went on to win the next three games and finally get Brantley a World Series ring.

He now retires having made 6,149 plate appearances in 1,445 regular season games. He only struck out in 10.7% of those trips to the plate, playing in an era where the league-wide rate often pushed well beyond double that. He batted .298/.355/.439 overall while getting 1,656 hits, 348 doubles, 25 triples and 129 home runs. He stole 125 bases, scored 758 runs and drove in 720. He produced 28.8 fWAR and 34.3 bWAR, earning over $112MM in the process. He also played in 62 postseason games between his two clubs. We at MLB Trade Rumors salute Brantley on an excellent career and wish him the best in his post-playing endeavors.

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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On paper, a longer contract equals a larger amount of job security.  And yet every year, we seem to be adding a longer list of caveats to this annual post detailing which managers and front office bosses (a GM, president of baseball operations, chief baseball officer, or whatever the title may be) are entering the final guaranteed year of their contracts.

First off, this list is somewhat speculative — some teams don’t publicly announce the terms of employee contracts, nor are details always leaked to reporters.  It is entirely possible some of the names listed have already quietly agreed to new deals, or were already contracted beyond 2024.  Secondly, obviously a contract only carries so much weight if a team drastically underperforms, and if ownership feels a change is needed in the dugout or in the front office.  Or, ownership might still desire a change even if the team is doing well on the field, i.e. the Marlins parting ways with Kim Ng after a wild card berth last season.

Craig Counsell’s five-year, $40MM deal to become the Cubs’ new manager also provides an interesting wrinkle to the managerial market.  With Counsell’s contract setting a new modern benchmark for managerial salaries, some of the more established skippers on this list will surely be looking to match or top Counsell’s deal.  These managers might choose (as Counsell did) to finish the year without signing a new contract and then test the open market, since you never know when a mystery team like the Cubs might swoop in to top the field.

As always, thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contract terms.

Angels: The Halos have had eight consecutive losing seasons, including the first three years of Perry Minasian’s stint as general manager.  Minasian now faces the challenge of trying to break this losing streak without Shohei Ohtani on the roster, and even before Ohtani joined the Dodgers, Minasian was clear that the Angels weren’t going to be rebuilding.  This tracks with the overall aggressive nature of owner Arte Moreno, yet this approach has also manifested itself in five non-interim GMs running the Angels since Moreno bought the team in 2003.  As Minasian enters the last year of his contract, it will take at least a winning season to keep Moreno from making yet another front office change.

Athletics: There hasn’t been any word about an extension for general manger David Forst, even though Forst’s last deal purportedly expired after the 2023 season.  It can therefore probably be assumed that Forst inked a new deal at some point, as it has appeared to be business as usual for the longtime Oakland executive this winter (or as “usual” as business can be given the Athletics’ bare-bones rebuild and the unusual nature of the team’s impending move to Las Vegas).  Manager Mark Kotsay would’ve been entering the final guaranteed year of his original deal with the A’s, except the team exercised their club option on Kotsay through the 2025 season.

Braves: Alex Anthopoulos is entering the last season of his three-year extension as Atlanta’s president of baseball operations, and one would imagine that ownership will aim to lock Anthopoulos up to another deal as soon as possible.  The Braves have won six straight NL East titles and the 2021 World Series championship during Anthopoulos’ six seasons with the organization, and look to be contenders for years to come thanks to the core of star players under long-term deals.  Anthopoulos would seemingly be eager to stay in Atlanta for this same reason, though if he did choose to play out the year and test the market, he would undoubtedly command a lot of interest from teams looking for a new chief executive.

Cardinals: For just the third time in the last century, a Cardinals team lost 91 or more games.  This unexpected interruption in the Cards’ run of success has naturally put a lot of heat on Oliver Marmol, who is entering the final season of his three-year contract.  Unsurprisingly, the team had yet to have any extension talks with Marmol as of early December, and it remains to be seen if Marmol will get even one extra year of security.  With such franchise stalwarts as Yadier Molina or Joe McEwing perhaps waiting in the wings as managers of the future, Marmol will surely need a quick start and at least a winning record in 2024 to retain his job.

Guardians: Chris Antonetti’s contract details haven’t been publicly known for more than a decade, yet there isn’t any sense that the longtime executive will be leaving Ohio any time soon.  Antonetti has been part of Cleveland’s front office since 1999, and he has been running the baseball ops department (first as GM and then as president of baseball operations) since 2010.  While the Guardians stumbled to a 76-86 record last year, Antonetti has a long track record of building contending teams on low payrolls, and he’ll now embark on a new era with Stephen Vogt replacing Terry Francona as the Guards’ manager.

Mariners: Another somewhat speculative situation, as while president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and manager Scott Servais signed extensions in September 2021, the exact length of those extensions wasn’t reported.  It is probably fair to assume both men are signed beyond 2024, though Servais’ previous two deals were three-year contracts, and 2024 would be his final guaranteed year if the skipper’s latest contract was also a three-year pact.

Orioles: Baltimore is particularly mum about the details of any employee contracts, as GM Mike Elias’ contract terms have never been publicized since he took over the club in November 2018.  Manager Brandon Hyde has already signed one extension that flew under the radar, and that deal has apparently stretched beyond the 2023 season, as there hasn’t been any suggestion that Hyde won’t return to the AL East champions.  In either case, Elias and Hyde won’t seem to have any worries about job security given how the Orioles won 101 games last year, and might be budding powerhouses for the next decade given the amount of young talent on the roster and in the minor league pipeline.

Pirates: Ben Cherington is entering his fifth season as Pittsburgh’s general manager, and terms of his original deal weren’t reported.  With the Bucs perhaps starting to turn the corner after their long rebuild, there wouldn’t appear to be any reason for ownership to move on from Cherington, if he hasn’t already been quietly signed to a new deal.  The Pirates already extended manager Derek Shelton back in April, in another hint that ownership is satisfied with the team’s direction.

Rays: Kevin Cash’s last extension was a lengthy six-year deal covering the 2019-24 seasons, with a club option for 2025.  It seems like a lock that the Rays will at least exercise that club option and seek out another multi-year deal, and Cash has a good case to argue for a Counsell-esque contract.  Widely considered one of baseball’s best managers, Cash is 739-617 over his nine seasons in Tampa Bay and has led the team to five consecutive postseason berths.

Red Sox: Alex Cora is entering the final year of his contract, and the Red Sox are coming off a pair of last-place finishes in the AL East.  Despite these results, the blame seems to have been placed on now-fired chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, as there hasn’t been much indication that ownership is dissatisfied with Cora’s performance as manager.  Since Cora has hinted that he might like to run a front office himself in the future, it will be interesting to monitor if he might pursue those ambitions as soon as next offseason, or if he might sign a new extension with the Red Sox as manager, or if Cora could perhaps let the season play out and then accept bids from several suitors outside of Boston.

Rockies: In each of the last two Februarys, Bud Black has signed a one-year extension to tack an extra year onto his run as Colorado’s manager.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see Black do the same this spring, as past reports have indicated that Black and the Rockies are working on an unofficial roll-over arrangement with the manager’s contract status.  As loyal as owner Dick Monfort is known to be with his employees, however, one wonders if the Rockies’ 103-loss season in 2023 (or their five straight losing seasons) might lead to questions about Black’s future, even if the team’s roster construction or their boatload of pitching injuries last year can’t be blamed on Black.  For what it’s worth, the terms of GM Bill Schmidt’s deal weren’t publicized when Schmidt was promoted to the full-time position after the 2021 season, though Schmidt isn’t thought to be in any danger of being replaced.

Twins: Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine are both apparently entering the final year of their contracts, though Minnesota has been known to be somewhat quiet about employee contracts (such as manager Rocco Baldelli’s last extension).  The duo known as “Falvine” have been on the job for seven seasons, with something of an all-or-nothing track record of either losing seasons or playoff berths, and the Twins were on the upswing again with an AL Central title in 2023.  Assuming either exec hasn’t already signed an under-the-radar extension, the Twins would seemingly be eager to retain both Falvey and Levine, though either could explore options elsewhere for at least leverage purposes.  For Levine in particular, he could be looking to lead his own front office, after being a finalist for Boston’s CBO job this fall and previously getting some consideration for front office vacancies with the Rockies and Phillies in recent years.

Yankees: Perhaps no skipper in baseball faces more public pressure than Aaron Boone, given how a lot of Bronx fans were calling for his ouster even before the Yankees missed the playoffs and won only 82 games in 2023.  Boone is entering the last guaranteed year of his contract, and the Yankees have a club option on his services for 2025.  For as much loyalty as owner Hal Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman have shown to Boone, it is hard to imagine the manager would be retained if New York doesn’t at least make the postseason again, and another miss could also raise some new questions about Cashman’s status (though his deal runs through the 2026 season).

Guardians Acquire Estevan Florial From Yankees

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The Yankees and Guardians have agreed on a trade that will send outfielder Estevan Florial to Cleveland in exchange for right-hander Cody Morris, per an announcement from both clubs.

The trade ends Florial’s tenure with the Yankees, with whom he signed out of the Dominican Republic back in 2015. After posting solid numbers in the lower levels of the minor leagues during his teenage years and reaching the High-A level before his 20th birthday, Florial began getting buzz as a consensus top-50 prospect throughout the sport prior to the 2018 season. Unfortunately, things came off the rails for Florial somewhat from there as the outfielder struggled at the High-A level in both 2018 and 2019. He made his big league debut during the shortened 2020 season and since then has served as a depth outfielder for the big league Yankees, with 48 appearances in the majors total in his four-year big league career.

While Florial, 26, has managed a slash line of just .209/.313/.296 across his 134 career plate appearances in the majors, his time in the minor leagues has seen him improve substantially in recent years. Fl0rial sports a career slash line of .265/.358/.490 at the Triple-A level, with an even more impressive .284/.380/.565 slash line in 101 games at the level in 2023. Given Florial’s extremely limited big league exposure to this point in his career, it’s easy to imagine him finding some level of success in Cleveland, where he should have a clear path to at least semi-regular at-bats. The Guardians put forth the third-worst outfield unit in the majors last year by measure of wRC+, as the club’s outfielders collectively hit just .250/.312/.342. Florial could challenge the likes of Ramon Laureano and Myles Straw for regular playing time alongside Steven Kwan, who appears locked into left field entering the 2024 campaign.

In exchange for Florial’s services, the Guardians are parting with Morris. The 27-year-old right-hander was the club’s seventh-round pick in the 2018 draft and first made his big league debut in 2022, where he performed well in seven appearances (five starts). While Morris posted an elevated walk rate of 12% that pushed his FIP up to 4.34, he struck out a respectable 23% of batters faced and managed an excellent 2.28 ERA in 23 2/3 innings of work during his first season in the majors.

In the minor leagues, Morris was even more impressive, with a career 1.68 ERA and a 37.8% strikeout rate in 80 1/3 innings of work between the Double-A and Triple-A levels as the 2022 campaign came to a close. Morris opened the 2023 season on the injured list due to a teres major strain but returned to action in June. While the right-hander put up respectable numbers at Triple-A, including a 3.23 ERA in 39 innings of work across 21 appearances, he struggled badly across six relief appearances in the majors with a 6.75 ERA over eight innings of work.

Despite Morris’s struggles with injury and ineffectiveness at the big league level last year, he provides the Yankees with an interesting, optionable arm who has experience pitching both out of the rotation and in the bullpen with strong numbers at the minor league level and some small-sample size success at the big league level. That type of arm would surely be attractive to just about any club, but could be particularly appealing to the Yankees after the club shipped cost-controlled pitchers like Michael King, Randy Vasquez, and Jhony Brito to San Diego as part of the package that landed the club Juan Soto earlier this month.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Angels Claim Alfonso Rivas

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The Angels have claimed first baseman Alfonso Rivas off waivers from the Guardians, per announcements from both teams. Cleveland designated Rivas for assignment last week. The Angels’ 40-man roster is now full.

Rivas, 27, lost his roster spot when the Guardians made their one-year contract with backup catcher Austin Hedges official. He’d only been in the organization for about a month, having come over in an early November waiver claim.

Rivas has seen MLB time in each of the past three seasons, splitting those years between the Cubs, Padres and Pirates. He hit well in a tiny sample of 49 plate appearances during his 2021 MLB debut with the Cubs but carries a more tepid .233/.316/.342 slash in 410 trips to the plate over the two previous seasons.

That said, Rivas has a minor league option remaining and an excellent track record at the game’s top minor league level. He’s a career .313/.424/.492 hitter in parts of four Triple-A seasons and has drawn a walk in a massive 15.1% of his plate appearances there. He’s more of a gap hitter than true power bat, evidenced by his 40 doubles and 15 long balls in 637 career plate appearances in Triple-A.

In some respects, Rivas has a skill set similar to that of expected Angels first baseman Nolan Schanuel, who raced to the Majors and debuted not even two months after being selected in the first round of the 2023 draft. Both are lefty-swinging first basemen with excellent plate discipline and more of a gap approach than a prototypical slugging first base profile. Schanuel, however, has a better hit tool, evidenced by his tiny 14.4% strikeout rate in a 132 plate appearance MLB debut (again, just months after playing NCAA ball).

Because Rivas has a minor league option remaining, he’s a sensible fallback option if the Angels both miss out on a larger upgrade at first base/designated hitter and see Schanuel struggle (be it in spring training or in the Majors early in the year). He could also serve as a lefty bat off the bench, if the Halos forgo further bench additions and prefer Rivas to 26-year-old first baseman/outfielder Trey Cabbage.

Julio Rodríguez Tops 2023 Pre-Arb Bonus Pool

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Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez will receive $1,865,349 from the $50MM bonus pool for pre-arbitration players, the highest of the 2023 recipients, per a report from Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. The AP later released a full list of bonus recipients.

A notable new element of the current collective bargaining agreement is that $50MM is to be taken from central revenues annually and distributed to players that have not yet qualified for arbitration. Certain portions of the money are to be based on awards voting:

  • Rookie of the Year: $750K for first place, $500K for second place
  • MVP and Cy Young: $2.5MM for first place, $1.75MM for second place, $1.5MM for third place, $1MM for fourth or fifth place
  • All-MLB: $1MM for being named “First Team,” $500K for being named “Second Team”

As Blum highlights today, a player is eligible to receive the bonus for one of those achievements per year, earning only the highest amount. Rodríguez finished fourth in American League MVP voting, meaning he got $1MM for that, which accounted for the majority of his payout. After the bonuses, the remainder of the pool is divided on a percentage basis among the top 100 players based on the joint MLB/MLBPA-created version of WAR.

Players are still eligible even if they have signed extensions, as long as they would have been pre-arb without signing such a deal. Rodríguez and the Mariners signed a convoluted extension towards the end of his rookie season in 2022 but he’s only at two years of service time now. Since he would have been pre-arb without that extension, he was able to top this year’s pool.

The following 10 players got more than $1MM:

Last year, Dylan Cease got the biggest slice of the 2022 pie, taking home $2,457,426.

Shin-Soo Choo To Retire After 2024 KBO Season

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Longtime big league veteran Shin-Soo Choo announced earlier this week (hat tip to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News) that 2024 will be his final season in pro baseball.  The 41-year-old Choo has played with the Korea Baseball Organization’s SSG Landers for the last three seasons, and he’ll spent one more year with the Landers before hanging up his cleats.  Choo is essentially playing for free in 2024, as he re-signed with the Landers for a KBO-minimum salary and will donate the sum to charity.

“I decided it was time for me to put a period on my baseball journey that started in 2001,” Choo said in a team statement to the Korea Times and other outlets.  “Since the 2024 season will be my last one, I want to show my gratitude to baseball fans, both at home and on the road, and give them long-lasting memories throughout the year.”

Choo hit .275/.377/.447 over 7157 plate appearances and 1652 games in the majors from 2005-20.  A “professional hitter” type, Choo delivered a very solid 123 wRC+ over his 16 MLB seasons, always showing a knack for getting on base even in his less-successful seasons at the plate.  Choo was also something of an underrated threat power-wise (218 home runs) and on the basepaths (157 steals in 212 chances), as he authored three 20-20 seasons during his big league career.

An international signing for the Mariners in 2000, Choo spent parts of his first two Major League campaigns in Seattle before being traded to Cleveland in July 2006.  It was a shrewd acquisition for the Indians, as Choo went on to become a lineup fixture over seven seasons with the Tribe.  However, as the team fell out of contention and Choo’s arbitration numbers began to increase, Cleveland dealt Choo to the Reds as part of a three-team, nine-player trade also involving the Diamondbacks in December 2012.

Choo’s lone season in Cincinnati was the best of his career, as he hit .285/.423/.462 with 21 homers and 20 stolen bases over 712 PA for a Reds team that reached the postseason.  This great platform year led to a big free agent payday for Choo in the form of a seven-year, $130MM deal with Texas.  Such a contract inevitably comes with high expectations, and unfortunately for both Choo and the Rangers, the deal didn’t really work out.

Between injuries and a declining glove, Choo’s value became entirely tied to his bat, and thus producing only good (111 wRC+) numbers in Texas wasn’t enough.  Choo ended up generating only 7.5 fWAR over the length of that seven-year deal, and it didn’t help that the franchise as a whole went into a rebuild period during Choo’s tenure.  After a pair of tough playoff losses to the Blue Jays in 2015-16, the Rangers didn’t post another winning record for the remaining four seasons of Choo’s deal.

After garnering only limited interest from big league teams during the 2020-21 offseason, Choo decided to head back to his native country and sign with the Landers (then known as the SK Wyverns).  Since Choo had signed with the Mariners as an amateur, he had never played in the KBO League prior to 2021, and his homecoming has been a successful one.  Choo has hit .259/.391/.427 over his three seasons with the Landers, and the team won the Korean Series in 2022.

Guardians Designate Alfonso Rivas For Assignment

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The Guardians announced Friday that they’ve designated first baseman Alfonso Rivas for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to catcher Austin Hedges, whose one-year deal to return to Cleveland is now official. The Guardians will have a week to trade Rivas, pass him through outright waivers or release him.

Rivas came to the Guardians in an offseason waiver claim from the Pirates. He’s never appeared in a game for the organization. The 27-year-old has logged big league time in each of the past three seasons, suiting up for the Cubs, Padres and Bucs. While Rivas had a productive rookie showing with Chicago in ’21, slashing .318/.388/.409 in a tiny sample of 49 plate appearances, he’s followed that up with a .233/.316/.342 showing in 410 plate appearances from 2022-23.

Although his production hasn’t carried over to the big leagues, Rivas is an accomplished Triple-A hitter with a .313/.424/.492 slash in parts of four seasons at that level. He’s walked at a gaudy 15.1% clip in Triple-A and fanned at a slightly lower-than-average 21% as well. While Rivas doesn’t have immense power, he’s smacked 40 doubles and 15 round-trippers in 637 trips to the plate at the Triple-A level. It’s an impressive track record of production in the upper minors — one that has clearly piqued the interest of multiple teams.

Rivas still has one minor league option remaining, so for a team looking to add a potential high-OBP left-handed bat to its depth chart or perhaps even its bench competition, Rivas makes some sense — either via waiver claim or low-cost trade.

Guardians Sign Ben Lively To Major League Deal

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The Guardians announced Tuesday that they’ve signed right-hander Ben Lively to a one-year, Major League contract. Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports that Lively will be guaranteed just north of the league minimum on the deal, earning a $750K salary in 2024. Lively is represented by Meister Sports Management.

Lively, 31, spent the 2022-23 seasons with the Reds after a three-year run with the Samsung Lions of the Korea Baseball Organization. The entirety of that 2022 campaign was spent in Triple-A, but Lively was selected to the Majors early last season and pitched 88 2/3 innings for the Reds, starting a dozen games and making another seven relief appearances. He posted an unsightly 5.38 ERA in that time, although a disproportionate amount of the damage against him came in one start on Aug. 1, when the Reds left him out there to take an eye-popping 13-run shellacking at the hands of the Cubs.

Lively’s 20.6% strikeout rate was a bit south of the league average this past season and he averaged just 90.9 mph on his fastball. However, he also issued walks at a tidy 6.5% clip, and the Guards are probably less concerned with his 2.03 HR/9 mark than other teams might’ve been, given the spacious nature of their home park. Lively still seems likely to struggle with the long ball at times, but pitching half his games at Progressive Field should help mitigate some of those struggles.

The signing of a Lively is in some ways out of character for the Guardians, who haven’t inked a free-agent starting pitcher to a Major League contract since signing Gavin Floyd to a one-year deal nearly a decade ago. Lively could well be viewed as a swingman and may not even be a lock to make the Opening Day roster, however, as he also has a minor league option remaining. Cleveland has been able to eschew free agent starting pitching entirely for the better part of a decade, thanks largely to the organization’s nearly unrivaled pitching development prowess.

Lively’s role with the Guards likely depends on how the remainder of their offseason shakes out. As it stands, he’d likely serve as a swingman or sixth starter behind Shane Bieber, Tanner Bibee, Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams. However, it’s also quite possible that Cleveland trades Bieber between now and Opening Day, as is the organization’s tendency with notable starting pitchers who are approaching the open market.

For instance, Bieber will reach free agency next winter, and the team has previously traded top starters like Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger before any qualified to become free agents. Trades of Bieber, closer Emmanuel Clase (on whom the Guardians are reportedly willing to listen) and/or other members of the roster could net further competition for the back of the rotation, as could future free-agent signings. For now, however, Lively joins that mix. No team makes it through a full season with only five starters anyhow, and both Bieber and McKenzie missed substantial time in 2023 due to elbow injuries. Even if he opens the year as a long reliever, Lively has a good chance to start games at some point, as injuries arise.

While it’s commonplace for players returning from the KBO or from NPB to have clauses in their contracts allowing them to become free agents despite lacking six years of MLB service time, MLBTR has confirmed that that’s not the case with Lively, because of the fact that he’d already spent a year back in the big leagues. As such, he’s now under Guardians control via arbitration for another five seasons. If he spends the entire year in the Majors, he’d likely be arbitration-eligible next offseason as a Super Two player. Lively is currently at 1.133 days of MLB service time, and this year’s Super Two cutoff was 2.118. It’s feasible he could spend a week or two in the minors and still reach Super Two status, but he’d be right on the bubble with even a brief stay in the minors.

Cubs, Mariners, Pirates Interested In Josh Naylor

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Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor drew trade interest from the Cubs, Mariners, and Pirates during the Winter Meetings, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.  There is no indication that the Guards were in serious talks about a deal, and as Hoynes notes, “for an offensively challenged club, it seems strange that they’d consider trading [Naylor].  But…it never hurts to listen.”

The 26-year-old Naylor hit .308/.354/.489 with 17 homers over 495 plate appearances last season, marking his second straight year of quality production.  The first baseman has a 124 wRC+ in 993 PA since Opening Day 2022, and this past season saw Naylor develop into more of a well-rounded hitter than just a power bat.  Naylor’s average and OBP increased greatly from 2022, and Naylor also cut back on his strikeouts without losing any of his power.  While he doesn’t walk much, that approach isn’t unusual for a Cleveland team that prioritizes contact above all.

It seems quite possible that Naylor hasn’t yet reached his ceiling, given that his early-career development was stunted by both the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and then a nasty fractured ankle that cut short his 2021 season and cost him a bit of time at the start of the 2022 campaign.  Naylor also missed about a month due to an oblique strain in 2023, and still generated positive numbers despite a very slow start over the season’s first six weeks.

Naylor’s 128 wRC+ actually outpaced Jose Ramirez’s 123 mark for tops among all Guardians regulars, and Josh’s younger brother Bo Naylor also delivered a 124 wRC+ in the smaller sample size of 230 PA.  These were among the few highlights in an overall dismal year at the plate for the rest of Cleveland’s roster, as the lack of hitting and multiple injuries in the rotation left the Guardians with a mediocre 76-86 record in Terry Francona’s final season as manager.

As Hoynes noted, moving Naylor would seem counterintuitive for a Guardians team that is seemingly looking to upgrade the lineup.  However, as is often the case with the Guards’ moves, there is a financial element at play.  Naylor is projected to earn $7.2MM in the second of three arbitration years, and he is eligible to hit free agency after the 2025 campaign.  While Ramirez is a notable exception, the Guardians generally doesn’t try to retain star talent unless they’re locked up to extensions earlier in their careers, so Naylor could potentially join a long list of notable Cleveland players who were dealt with at least one year remaining of team control.

Just this offseason, it is widely expected that the Guardians will deal Shane Bieber since the former Cy Young Award winner will be a free agent in the 2024-25 offseason.  Cleveland has already moved Cal Quantrill to the Rockies in a salary dump type of trade, and this winter in particular carries extra financial uncertainty for the small-market Guardians since the Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy proceedings could see the team lose their TV deal.  Since their payroll isn’t expected to go up, that leaves the front office with some tricky decisions to make in figuring out how to improve the roster as a whole.

With this in mind, Naylor becomes a very interesting possible trade chip in an offseason market thin on big bats, particularly in free agency.  Any number of teams would certainly have interest in a 26-year-old who might not have hit his offensive peak yet, and a new club would have two years to perhaps ink Naylor to an extension.

Based on what Cleveland usually seeks out in such trades of established talent, the Guardians could try and obtain an MLB-ready who can help the team in 2024, as well as a longer-term prospect or two.  Turning to the clubs in Hoynes’ report, the highly-ranked farm systems of the Pirates and Cubs could certainly have the assets to fit what would surely be a big asking price from the Guardians.

Acquiring Naylor would instantly fill the Cubs’ needs at first base, and provide a nice pivot after Chicago missed out on Shohei Ohtani.  Cubs GM Carter Hawkins is very familiar with Naylor, as Hawkins previously worked in Cleveland’s front office before heading to Wrigleyville following the 2021 season.  As much as Jed Hoyer’s front office has been hesitant about dealing from its stash of young talent, two years of relatively inexpensive control over Naylor is a tempting proposition, and it would allow the Cubs to then devote extra dollars to free agency.

There is some irony in the Pirates looking to land a player from another team looking to cut costs, given Pittsburgh’s long history of low payrolls.  However, the Bucs have a clear need at first base, and acquiring Naylor would also be another major sign that the team is preparing to finally return to contention.  That push might even come as early as 2024, given the NL Central’s state of flux.

The Mariners are looking for a particular kind of offensive upgrade, as Naylor would fit Seattle’s prioritization of good contact hitters.  The M’s have already parted ways with Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, and Jarred Kelenic in their pursuit of more contact, and acquiring Naylor could also give the Mariners cover to trade current first baseman Ty France.

Marlins Acquire Christian Bethancourt From Guardians

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The Marlins and Guardians have announced a trade that will send catcher Christian Bethancourt to Miami in exchange for cash considerations.  Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extrabase was the first to report Bethancourt going to the Marlins, while the Miami Herald’s Craig Mish reported the cash return to Cleveland (both links to X).

The trade adds context to the Guardians’ $one-year, $4MM deal with Austin Hedges from earlier today.  The signing initially seemed curious given how Bethancourt and Bo Naylor were already lined up as Cleveland’s catching corps, but obviously the Guards were planning two moves at once in both signing Hedges and then flipping Bethancourt to the catcher-needy Marlins.

Bethancourt is a veteran of seven MLB seasons, though none in 2018-21 as he played in the minor leagues and spent a season playing in South Korea.  Returning to the big leagues with the A’s in 2022, Bethancourt was then dealt to Tampa Bay in July 2022, and the catcher ended up hitting .235/.257/.399 over 483 PA with the Rays over the last two seasons.  With his numbers falling off at the plate in 2023, the Rays outrighted Bethancourt off their 40-man roster at the start of November, and the Guardians claimed him off waivers two days later.

Almost at that exact same time, Peter Bendix was in final talks with the Marlins to leave the Rays’ GM job and become Miami’s new president of baseball operations.  As such, Bethancourt has become one of several ex-Tampa players that Bendix has already added to Miami’s roster during his brief time in charge of the front office.

While Bethancourt had exactly a league-average 100 wRC+ (from a .252/.283/.409 slash line and 11 homers in 333 PA) in 2022, it is safe to assume he probably won’t be viewed as a true starting catcher for the Marlins.  Bethancourt and Nick Fortes at least provide the Fish with a slight upgrade on paper from last year’s catching tandem of Fortes and the non-tendered Jacob Stallings, as Bethancourt’s strong throwing arm can pair with Fortes’ glove for a defense-first approach.  Bendix will probably keep an eye out for any more possible upgrades, as Fortes can still be optioned to the minors.

Bethancourt was projected to earn $2.3MM in arbitration salary this winter, so the Rays’ outright essentially served as an early non-tender for the team.  This is Betancourt’s second of three arb-eligible years, so the Marlins have control on his services through the 2025 season.

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