GMs Operate As Usual Despite CBA Uncertainty
Despite the uncertainty surrounding baseball’s upcoming collective bargaining agreement, general managers around the league say they’ve been able to operate as usual to this point in the offseason. None of the six GMs who discussed the topic with MLBTR yesterday said uncertainty about the CBA has slowed them down significantly.
“I think this time, early in the offseason, is always slow,” Mets GM Sandy Alderson said. “A club like ours is not anxious to give up draft picks.”
The Mets are one of many clubs that will remain relatively quiet until they see which ranked free agents obtain offers of arbitration from their former teams seven days from now. In the meantime, the Mets are in limbo, since major changes to the free agent compensation system remain possible.
“There’s some uncertainty about compensation as it relates back to the CBA,” Alderson continued, “but as I said, I don’t think uncertainty is all that meaningful right now because we’re waiting.”
Other general managers have been too busy for the pace of the CBA talks to slow them down. Cardinals GM John Mozeliak, for example, has already conducted a managerial search this offseason — and his team wrapped up its World Series title less than three weeks ago. The CBA will affect Mozeliak once the players and owners reach an agreement, but the Cardinals have been too busy for it to slow them down so far.
“It doesn’t feel like it yet,” he said. “It doesn’t seem to be creating any type of paralysis on movement that I’m aware of.”
Like Mozeliak, Cubs GM Jed Hoyer is conducting a managerial search. Hoyer reads up on CBA talks when possible, but at this point he’s more concerned with hiring a manager and improving his team’s run prevention than the collective bargaining process.
“It’s something that’s on the back of our minds,” Hoyer said. “Hopefully it happens soon and when it does we’ll look over the details and make decisions.”
Pirates GM Neal Huntington hasn’t had to adjust to a new front office or hire a manager like some of his peers in the NL Central. He says it’s basically business as usual in Pittsburgh, but acknowledges there’s some hesitation.
“You have to be aware of what the rumblings and rumors are on what could change and what the impact would be,” he said. “At the same time, you’ve got to conduct business and keep moving forward to improve the quality of play on the field.”
Chris Antonetti of the Indians echoed Huntington's thoughts, explaining that the uncertainty surrounding the new labor agreement slows offseason movement down to a degree — especially when it comes to ranked free agents.
“To some extent it can,” he said, “depending on the compensation issues. But there are other players where that doesn’t really affect [discussions]. You’re still able to conduct some business, but once we have clarity on the CBA, I think that will give everyone the framework they need to progress.”
Though GMs have been able to work uninhibited to this point, they’ll want certainty within the week. Arbitration decisions for ranked free agents are due next Wednesday and it will be significantly easier for teams and players to progress if the sides announce a CBA, and the uncertainty that currently surrounds issues such as draft pick compensation disappears.
Type B Compensation To Stay For This Offseason
10:23am: There will be Type B free agents this offseason, clarifies Sherman in a tweet.
WEDNESDAY, 8:33am: Lesser Type As such as Kelly Johnson, Octavio Dotel, and Takashi Saito will be made Type Bs in the new CBA, tweets Sherman. The players' teams will still get compensation, but the players' markets will not be hurt by the cost of a draft pick. Sherman talked yesterday about Type B compensation being eliminated, but I am guessing that would go into effect for the 2012-13 offseason. By the way, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the Brewers have already agreed not to offer arbitration to Saito.
Sherman says the new CBA will be for five years, and could be announced as early as Friday. A hard cap and floor for international signings will be included, tweets SI's Melissa Segura.
TUESDAY, 10:50am: Teams such as the Rockies, Dodgers, Twins, Royals, Cardinals, Yankees, and Astros may lose out on potential supplemental draft picks in 2012, if a new report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post holds true. After talking to two executives briefed on the collective bargaining negotations, Sherman says there is a "strong possibility that Type-B compensation will be eliminated this offseason." As you can see from the current list of Type B free agents, not all of them can expect arbitration offers next Wednesday, but several were likely.
This year, teams like the Blue Jays, Rays, and Padres added multiple draft picks in the #44-60 range by having Type B free agents turn down their offseason arbitration offers. That type of opportunity may have already passed.
Compensation is expected to remain the same this offseason for top Type A free agents, Sherman learned. For example, Mets GM Sandy Alderson said he's received assurances from the Commissioner's Office that the compensation for Jose Reyes will remain unchanged. Sherman hears that tinkering at the bottom of the Type A spectrum is possible, to help players like Octavio Dotel and Kelly Johnson. I imagine the main objections would come from the A's and Blue Jays, teams that made summer trade decisions based on Josh Willingham and Johnson projecting as Type As.
Latest On CBA Talks
CBA negotiations are temporarily on hold, but once the two sides resume talking, a deal could be reached quickly, reports Jayson Stark of ESPN.com. Stark says that players and owners are "on the precipice" of a new labor deal, with discussions potentially resuming Thursday and moving quickly from there. Danny Knobler of CBS Sports (Twitter link) believes a deal could be announced as soon as Friday.
Two of Stark's sources agree that a deal will be consummated soon, with one saying the two sides are "within striking distance" and the other saying they're "on the verge of an agreement." Specifics on a few issues still need to be worked out, but barring any unexpected setbacks, none of the issues should prevent a new agreement.
Stark also hears that free agent compensation won't be eliminated, but will be modified so that teams only surrender a top draft pick when signing "elite" free agents. Earlier today, we heard that Type B compensation is expected to be eliminated as early as this offseason, and that compensation for Type A free agents might be tweaked as well.
While most of the news concerning a new deal is positive, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes that many teams aren't happy about changes that could limit amateur draft spending. One executive called the proposed changes "incredibly short-sighted," saying they'd hurt many clubs.
Joe Torre Talks Rosters, Replay, Realignment
Joe Torre, MLB’s executive VP for baseball operations, briefed reporters on some details of the general managers’ meetings this afternoon. Here are some notes from his discussion with reporters…
- There were no discussions about roster limits in September, but MLB hasn’t ruled out adapting roster sizes late in the year. “It’s something that we’re seriously considering,” Torre said. Rosters expand from 25 to 40 each September and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see MLB reduce roster size for the regular season’s final month.
- The GMs discussed potential changes to the replay process. MLB may add replay for fair or foul calls, but there’s ongoing discussion about the drawbacks and benefits of expanding replay in this way.
- Realignment was not up for discussion today. It's the domain of commissioner Bud Selig and appears to be linked to the ongoing talks for a new collective bargaining agreement.
- Player safety in Venezuela did come up in today's meetings. Nationals catcher Wilson Ramos was kidnapped in Venezuela last week before being recovered by authorities, so there’s concern about the safety of MLB players in Venezuela.
Astros Likely To Join American League In 2013
Prospective Astros owner Jim Crane has agreed to move the team to the American League in 2013, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter). Crane still needs the approval of baseball's other owners. He would get a discount of approximately $50MM to switch leagues, according to Heyman. Bob Nightengale of USA Today says compensation will be in the $80MM range (Twitter link).
The move would even out the two leagues at 15 teams each and create six divisions of five teams, assuming Houston joins the four-team American League West. The shift is tied to the upcoming collective bargaining agreement, which may include identical schedules for teams within the same division and boost inter-league play considerably. As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes explained in his GM Meetings preview, owners are expected to approve the sale of the Astros from Drayton McLane to Crane this week.
Quick Hits: Astros, Sizemore, A’s, Phillies, CBA
On a day when Jonathan Papelbon switched teams and the Miami Marlins were officially born, the biggest and best news was unquestionably Wilson Ramos' rescue from kidnappers in his native Venezuela. Here are a few other items as we head into the weekend…
- The Astros' potential sale to Jim Crane is on the agenda at next week's owners meetings, reports The Associated Press. Two sources say Crane, Drayton McLane and Major League Baseball have "reached an understanding" on how the Astros could move to the American League in 2013.
- Crane could be getting as much as an $80MM discount off his original price for the team by agreeing to move the Astros to the AL, tweets Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman.
- Grady Sizemore is looking for a one-year contract so he can re-establish his value for a longer-term deal next winter, reports Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Heyman makes the comparison to the one-year deal Adrian Beltre signed with the Red Sox before the 2010 season, which saw Beltre have a big season and earn a multiyear deal with the Rangers last winter. Sizemore won't match the $10MM Beltre got from Boston, but a $6-7MM deal with incentives seems reasonable.
- Heyman says the Athletics are interested in Sizemore but are worried about his health and his asking price.
- With the Phillies reportedly interested in both Sizemore and Jason Kubel, Fangraphs' Eric Seidman argues that Sizemore is the better choice for the Phils.
- The Phillies want to sign Michael Cuddyer and re-sign Jimmy Rollins but the club finds both players' asking prices to be too high, tweets Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com.
- Major League Baseball and the Players' Association are expected to "continue to negotiate amicably" about the new collective bargaining agreement over the weekend, reports Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.
- Also from Rosenthal, he thinks teams take a major risk by hiring managers with little or no Major League managing or coaching experience.
- The Pirates' offseason moves will be influenced by the number of players on the roster who are out of options, writes MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch.
Stark On Pujols, Fielder, Manny, Royals
MLB executives expect Albert Pujols to re-sign in St. Louis, but predicting Prince Fielder’s next team is considerably more challenging. ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark surveyed a dozen MLB executives about likely landing spots for the two free agent first basemen and the details are worth examining. Here they are, along with more notes from Stark:
- The average prediction for Pujols’ next contract was more than $28MM per season for 8.5 years. All but one respondent expect Pujols to re-sign with the Cardinals, though there’s buzz that the Cubs, Marlins and Rangers are “gearing up” for him.
- Executives expect Fielder to sign a seven-year deal in the $22-23MM range. Some doubt NL teams would commit more than five years to Fielder because of concerns that he’ll be incapable of playing passable defense once he hits his mid-thirties.
- Manny Ramirez tried out for the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks, but it didn’t go well, possibly because Japanese teams prefer to avoid players with baggage.
- The players and owners are considering significant changes to the schedule in talks for a new collective bargaining agreement. The sides are considering a proposal that would split MLB teams into six divisions of five teams, ensure identical schedules for teams within the same division and boost inter-league play considerably.
- Stark hears that the Nationals are focused on finding veteran starting pitching and a center fielder. One executive believes the team prefers Mark Buehrle to C.J. Wilson or Roy Oswalt.
- The Phillies have interest in Jason Kubel and have checked in on Grady Sizemore.
- More than six teams have expressed interest in Jimmy Rollins.
- The Braves seem interested in shedding salary and they continue to float Jair Jurrjens’ name. It appears that they’d move Martin Prado after his disappointing 2011 season.
- Rival teams say the Royals are no longer looking to trade for a top-of-the-rotation starter, according to Stark. They acquired Jonathan Sanchez earlier in the week and now prefer to hold their prospects and spend on back-of-the-rotation arms.
- The Red Sox are less likely to spend on a right fielder if they re-sign free agent DH David Ortiz.
Quick Hits: CBA, Fielder, Francis, Rollins
Ryan Madson appeared to have a deal with the Phillies this time last night, but the sides haven't completed anything to date. Here are the details and here are your links for Wednesday night…
- We heard last night that the players and owners made significant progress toward a new collective bargaining agreement. The sides could complete a CBA this week, according to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark.
- ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick polled MLB executives on some fun baseball questions and the results are worth checking out. The executives preferred Prince Fielder to Albert Pujols over the life of a long-term contract and their response suggests Rays left-hander Matt Moore is every bit as coveted as Stephen Strasburg.
- ESPN.com's Keith Law explains that Aramis Ramirez is the top free agent third baseman of the offseason, but cautions that Ramirez's new team "will either have to live with below-average defense at third or contemplate moving him to first or to DH." I examined the trade and free agent market for third base late last month.
- Orioles executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette says he expects to add people to his front office before the Winter Meetings take place in early December, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Duquette has been impressed by director of baseball operations Matt Klentak.
- The Royals are open-minded regarding a possible return for free agent left-hander Jeff Francis, GM Dayton Moore told Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. The Royals would prefer to sign Bruce Chen, according to Dutton.
- Jimmy Rollins and the Phillies have had preliminary contract talks, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (Twitter link). The shortstop continues to seek a five-year deal.
Significant Progress In CBA Talks
Baseball's owners and players made "significant progress" toward a new collective bargaining agreement today, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). The current CBA expires in December, but completing a new deal before then would facilitate offseason decisions for teams by providing them with knowledge about the game's structure going forward. An agreement is possible this week, writes ESPN's Jayson Stark.
Earlier today, ESPN.com's Buster Olney reported that the sides are discussing possible alternatives for Type A free agents. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus hears that there’s been some talk of greatly reducing the number of compensatory draft picks in the ongoing collective bargaining negotiations (Twitter link).
Owners, Players Union Discussing Possible Type A Solutions
It might stink to be Kelly Johnson this offseason. Sure, he'll be signing for millions of dollars, but it's possible that if he wants to explore the open market as a Type A free agent, he'll be saddled with the cost of a draft pick. For example, having to give their #23 overall pick to the Blue Jays next year might deter the Cardinals from making a serious offer to Johnson. Like so many non-star free agents who are offered arbitration, Johnson could be in a bad place because of his Type A status.
As part of the ongoing collective bargaining agreement discussions, the owners and players union "seem focused on two possible solutions for the Type A quandary," writes ESPN's Buster Olney.
The first idea: instead of the new team giving a potential first-round draft pick to the old one, the old team would simply receive a supplemental pick sandwiched between the first and second rounds. In a way, this would be like making all players Type Bs. For example, instead of the Red Sox receiving the Tigers' #19 pick in the 2011 draft for Detroit signing Victor Martinez, maybe they would have received a pick in the 30s, not from the Tigers. This solution seems reasonable.
A second idea would deter teams from offering arbitration to non-star free agents in the first place. Olney equates this to the NFL's system, where a star free agent must be paid 120% of his previous salary or the average salary of the top five highest-paid players at his position, whichever is higher, or else be granted unrestricted free agency. That could mean $8.5MM or more for someone like Kelly Johnson, which could deter the Jays from offering arbitration. The current free agent arbitration system works this way to a lesser extent. Johnson will get a raise if he accepts, despite a down year. This is the reason a Type A free agent like Francisco Rodriguez has no chance of getting an arbitration offer.
Olney says one unresolved question is whether Type A adjustments would be made for the 2012 season or for '13. I think some teams would cry foul if the changes were made for '12. At any rate, Olney is optimistic for a labor agreement within the next two weeks.
