Rockies Sign Mike Nikorak, Tyler Nevin
JUNE 19: Nevin received an even $2MM bonus, tweets Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. That places him about $373K over slot value.
JUNE 18, 2:49pm: Second-round selection Tyler Nevin has also agreed to terms, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. Like his father, veteran big leaguer Phil Nevin, the would-be UCLA commit is a third baseman. MLB.com rated Nevin just inside the top fifty available prospects.
Nevin’s bonus remains unreported at present. The 38th pick came with a $1,626,500 allocation.
2:23pm: The Rockies have announced the signing of righty Mike Nikorak, the 27th overall selection in the draft. He’ll receive a $2.3MM bonus, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter).
The slot value for the comp pick was $2,004,600, meaning that Colorado went nearly $300K over to draw him away from a commitment to the University of Alabama. That eats up a decent portion of the $723K that the team saved in signing its first selection, Brendan Rodgers.
Callis says that Nikorak has the highest ceiling of any prep arm in this year’s draft class, and indeed the MLB.com team rated him the 15th-best player available. His big fastball has lost steam at times, but MLB.com says that it has plenty of movement regardless. While he’ll need to keep developing his secondary offerings, Nikorak is said to have excellent athleticism and still has not filled into his sizable frame.
Baseball America agrees that Nikorak has top-of-the-rotation upside, rating him 16th among draft-eligible players. Meanwhile, ESPN.com’s Keith Law placed Nikorak in his 22nd slot, noting some control issues, and Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs put him in the 25th place on his board while pointing out that there were some velocity drops at times this year.
Rockies To Sign Brendan Rodgers
The Rockies and No. 3 overall pick Brendan Rodgers have agreed to terms, reports Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (via Twitter). Rodgers will receive a $5.5MM signing bonus, which comes in about $723K shy of the No. 3 slot’s value. Rodgers will soon debut with the club’s Rookie-ball affiliate, Mayo adds.
Despite being selected third overall, Rodgers actually ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the draft in the eyes of Baseball America, Mayo and Jim Callis of MLB.com, and ESPN’s Keith Law. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs rated Rodgers as the No. 2 prospect in the draft, behind top overall pick Dansby Swanson and ahead of No. 2 overall pick Alex Bregman.
A high school shortstop known for his power, Rodgers was one of a handful of players in the mix to go first overall. BA describes Rodgers’ bat speed as “elite” and gives him a chance to hit 25 or more homers in the Majors one day, adding that his arm strength and hands are good enough to remain at short as long as his range does not deteriorate as he matures physically. Callis and Mayo praise his all-fields approach at the plate and liken his skill set to that of Addison Russell. Law calls Rodgers a “true shortstop” that can hit for at least average power down the line, if not more. McDaniel feels that Rodgers has been the best pure bat in the class for a full year, though he notes that Swanson just snuck ahead of him in his rankings due to a better spring.
International Notes: Market, Martinez, Venezuela
The international market continues to be a fairly inefficient arena despite advances in overall talent evaluation resources, Ben Badler of Baseball America writes. An advancing timeline for reaching verbal agreement with July 2 prospects has exacerbated the difficulties of scouting young, swiftly changing players, says Badler. Generally, uncertainty and market manipulation are prevalent, creating an environment in which bonuses do not always match talent.
Here’s more from the international scene:
- The Yankees “made a run” at signing MLB.com’s top-rated international prospect, Eddy Julio Martinez, before the close of the 2014-15 July 2 period, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports on Twitter. A deal did not get done, however, meaning that Martinez will sign elsewhere at some point after July 2 (when the new year’s market open). New York is now just starting out on a two-year ban on international bonuses of over $300K.
- Broader difficulties are even greater in Venezuela, writes Badler, citing one scout who says “this is as bad as it’s been” to evaluate young players there. But the same large-scale economic issues that have crippled the country and had a trickle-down effect on the baseball industry have also created shifting incentives for ballplaying youngsters. Badler explains that, even as less resources and money have reached Venezuela, there is an increasing trend of teenagers devoting more time to baseball development in hopes of earning a chance at a contract, thereby sacrificing time that might have gone toward other pursuits. That has led to a bump in the overall talent level coming up, though of course it is probably not a positive indicator for the country’s young people.
- Badler also provides a preview of the best prospects coming up on the July 2 market out of Venezuela. The Rockies are “strong favorites” to sign outfielder Daniel Montano, who is expected to receive the largest bonus from the country (perhaps over $2MM). And the Rangers appear to have the inside track on another well-regarded outfielder, Miguel Aparicio, at a lower price tag.
- There’s plenty more to learn from the Badler pieces cited above, and you’ll want to give them a full read for all of the details.
Amateur Notes: July 2, Martinez, Sierra, D’Backs, Draft
With the draft in the books, the next July 2 period is just around the corner. Last year saw several teams blow past their spending allocations, incurring two-year bans on $300K+ signings to do so. As the Angels, Diamondbacks, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees go on probation, the Cubs and Rangers are returning to the market. Ben Badler of Baseball America breaks down this year’s market, with the Cubs joined by the Dodgers and Royals as teams that seem quite likely to dole out enough excess bonus cash to incur the highest possible penalties. The Phillies and Blue Jays could follow those clubs, says Badler, though they may yet be able to add their top targets without taking on a signing ban. Badler discusses several clubs that could be buyers or sellers of international space, with the Twins profiling as a major acquirer or spending capacity and the D’backs looking to get some value back for the bonus availability that they cannot take advantage of.
You’ll want to give that piece a full read. Here are some other worthwhile amateur links:
- Badler discusses the signing situations of BA’s top ten July 2 prospects (non-Cuban edition). He says the Mets are the favorites to land Venezuelan shortstop Andres Gimenez. Though New York probably won’t get Vladimir Guerror Jr., who has long been linked to the Blue Jays, they may instead get Vlad Sr. nephew Gregory Guerrero, another shortstop. Meanwhile, Badler says the Rangers appear set to sign Dominican outfielder Leodys Taveras but now seem likely to lose Bahamian shortstop Lucius Fox to the Dodgers.
- Cuban outfielder Eddie Julio Martinez has drawn a range of reviews, with MLB.com pegging him as the top overall international prospect and Badler expressing considerably more doubt. You can have a look for yourself, at least at some batting practice cuts, with a video courtesy of BA.
- Well-regarded Cuban right-hander Yaisel Sierra will be represented by Praver-Shapiro Sports Management, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. As Badler recently explained, Sierra will be exempt from international signing restrictions when he becomes eligible to sign, but his Serie Nacional track record has never quite matched his promising pure stuff.
- The Diamondbacks‘ new regime exhibited a notable change in strategy in this year’s draft, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic notes (Twitter links). After going heavy on high schoolers at the top of last year’s draft, Arizona chose 15 collegiate players in its first 19 picks (including each of its first six selections) this time around. Individual draft dynamics always have an important bearing on a team’s final board, of course, but it is notable that the D’Backs ultimately chose just four high school players out of their forty total draft slots.
- MLB.com’s Jim Callis lists the five teams that had the best drafts. Like other analysts, he places the Astros, Rockies, and Dodgers at the top of that list. Callis also likes what the Rays and Rangers accomplished with their selections.
Draft Notes: Matuella, Rodgers, Harris, Cameron
Scouts do much more than tally stats, of course, but they are not immune from the allure of racking up their own numbers. As MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick writes, Marty Lamb of the Dodgers received credit as the lead scout on three of the team’s top five choices, including first-rounder Walker Buehler, a fairly rare achievement. “Part of it is luck,” explains the veteran scout. “They’ve got to fall to the right places, and we’ve got to like them. … It’s fun, but I’m sure some of my buddies [fellow scouts] aren’t too happy with me right now, but it’s part of the game.”
Here’s more from out west:
- Rangers scouting director Kip Fagg, likewise, was pleased with how things turned out Monday, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes. “I can’t think of a better day that I’ve had in my 24 years of scouting with the Texas Rangers,” he said. “The first four guys we drafted, we had them all in our top 20 on our board. That’s never happened in my career. That made it special.” Texas took righty Dillon Tate with its top pick and also went on to secure the rights to Duke starter Michael Matuella, a high-upside talent who has injury and signability questions. Matuella says he is “very confident” in reaching a deal, with Fagg echoed that sentiment.
- High school shortstop Brendan Rodgers, the Rockies‘ top selection at third overall, said Monday that he agreed on bonus terms with the club before the draft, as Nick Groke of the Denver Post reported. Ink has not yet been put to paper, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets, but it appears that Rodgers will formally reach a deal in fairly short order.
- Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are nearing agreement with first-rounder Jon Harris, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. The righty is expected to receive a bonus in line with the slot value of $1,944,800, sources tell Davidi. Toronto has expressed real excitement at having another chance at Harris, who the team failed to sign out of high school after the 2012 draft.
- Astros second-round choice Daz Cameron, a highly-regarded high school outfielder, is asking “less than” the $5MM he was rumored to be seeking, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports. The consensus is that Cameron fell to Houston because it has the overall spending capacity to sign him, but perhaps the team will not need to go quite as high as had been expected to get a deal done. Daz’s father — long-time big leaguer Mike Cameron — offers plenty of interesting thoughts on his son’s draft experience and the useful “business management” lesson he picked up along the way. It’s an interesting piece and well worth a read.
Draft Links: Best Remaining, Matuella, Day One Analysis
Last night, we watched as the first two rounds of this year’s Rule 4 draft hit the books. We tracked the first 42 picks (here and here), but of course another 33 choices were made after that. You can find the complete results of the first day at MLB.com.
Here are some links to check out as we look back at yesterday and look forward to the rest of the draft:
- Baseball America lists the best players still available, which includes names like high school righties Donny Everett and Dakota Chalmers as well as former Astros pick Jacob Nix.
- The most intriguing player still on the board, perhaps, is Duke starter Michael Matuella, who was at one point regarded as a possible 1-1 selection but underwent Tommy John surgery late in the season and has dealt with other injury issues. It has to be considered at least possible at this point that he’ll return to college for his senior year; indeed, he acknowledged as much recently, as Laura Keeley of the Charlotte Observer reported. “That’s definitely an option I’m evaluating,” said Matuella. “I’m hoping a good opportunity presents itself. I really haven’t come up with a certain [draft round] cutoff. I’ll evaluate it case by case and see if there’s a good opportunity for me.” Of course, it would not be surprising to see a team with a large bonus pool take a shot on him today.
- Diamondbacks scouting director Deric Ladnier says that the club has been locked in on first overall pick Dansby Swanson for some time, as Teddy Cahill of Baseball America writes in breaking down the first day of the draft. “This is the player we wanted,” said Ladnier. “We wanted him for a while.”
- Astros GM Jeff Luhnow tells MLB Network Radio (audio link) that Houston saw second overall pick Alex Bregman (LSU) as a “no-brainer” of a selection, noting that the club believes Bregman is plenty capable of sticking at short. The team’s top baseball man noted that he’s not worried about the possibility of a future infield logjam. “The good thing about having guys at the premium positions is … their fall-back is to play another position,” said Luhnow.
- It goes without saying, really, that it’s too early to evaluate the results of day one, but Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com compares the Astros’ haul to their 2012 draft in terms of the volume of premium talent. Houston made plenty of noise yesterday — as might have been expected given its league-high bonus pool — in adding highly-regarded high school outfielders Kyle Tucker and Daz Cameron to go with Bregman. Heyman also notes that the Dodgers seemingly achieved good value in nabbing righties Walker Buehler and Kyle Funkhouser with the 24th and 35th selections.
- Jim Callis of MLB.com pegs the Blue Jays‘ selection of Missouri State righty Jon Harris (29th overall) and the Rockies‘ choice of high school hurler Mike Nikorak (at 27) as two of the best three picks, joining Cameron. The biggest suprise, per Callis, was the Marlins‘ decision to grab young first baseman Josh Naylor in the 12th slot.
- As a reminder, MLBTR’s draft primer contains links to many essential draft materials.
Rockies Outright Charlie Culberson
The Rockies have announced that they’ve reinstated infielder Charlie Culberson from the 60-day disabled list and outrighted him to Triple-A Albuquerque. The Rockies placed Culberson on the DL in April with a bulging disc in his back.
The 26-year-old Culberson collected 233 plate appearances in 2014 but hit for a .195/.253/.290 line that was especially meager given that he played half his games at Coors Field. He’s capable of playing all four infield positions when healthy and has also played left field, though, so he does provide a bit of versatility. He’s a career .284/.316/.469 hitter at the Triple-A level, although he’s mostly posted those numbers in the offense-friendly environment of Colorado Springs.
Amateur Notes: Gourriel Brothers, Martinez, Draft
We’ve had a lot of news of players leaving Cuba of late, but two of the country’s most prominent names — brothers Yulieski and Lourdes Gourriel, rated first and fourth among the island’s players as big league prospects — have thus far not made any public moves towards the big leagues. As Ben Badler of Baseball America explains, however, both players are now set to miss the Cuban national team’s upcoming appearance in the Pan American Games. The younger of the two, Lourdes, was surprisingly left off the original roster, while Yulieski (the country’s biggest star) is said to have taken himself out of the tournament — after both recently seemed to have passed on chances to earn significant money playing in Japan. For now, it’s entirely unclear whether there is any movement afoot for the brothers to come stateside, but Badler notes that MLB clubs are watching with keen interest.
Here are some more amateur notes as we enter the final weekend before the draft:
- As he prepares to join the professional ranks after being declared a free agent, Cuban outfielder Eddy Julio Martinez has moved into the top spot on MLB.com’s international prospect list, as MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez writes. It’s unclear as yet whether Martinez will sign in this period or the new one beginning July 2, but he’ll have to put pen to paper in short order if he’s to head to the Yankees or Angels. Those two clubs will be unable to spend more than $300K after this July 2 class closes, and they are among the teams who Sanchez lists with interest. The Cubs, Blue Jays, Nationals, Rockies, Tigers, Dodgers, and Giants have also reached out to Martinez’s camp, per the report. “I’m working hard to get to my goal to play in the Major Leagues, ” says the 20-year-old. “That’s what I have always wanted to do.”
- The makeup of the amateur draft has changed over time, as Ben Lindbergh of Grantland explains. Mocking the draft is a more-or-less hopeless endeavor, says Lindbergh, but some trends have emerged. For one thing, the number of pitchers has continued to rise rather significantly. While this year’s class lacks premium talent, Christopher Crawford of Baseball Prospectus tells Lindbergh, some teams — the Rangers (who have the fourth overall pick) chief among them, based on their recent history — could well continue to stockpile arms. The Diamondbacks, who of course sit at first overall, have leaned toward position players recently, although they have an entirely new front office installed this time around. Meanwhile, the percentage of high school players taken has plummeted in the long run, but has jumped more recently. In particular, says Lindbergh, the Red Sox and Blue Jays have moved toward heavy drafting of prep players, who of course represent generally riskier but (in some cases) higher-upside investments. The Nationals have skewed most heavily toward college players — the spread is rather amazingly wide — though that could be due in part to draft circumstances. There are plenty more details in the piece, and I highly recommend a read to prepare for the coming draft.
- Bonus allocations (which come with the penalty of stark limitations in future drafts) have had a marked impact on clubs’ total outlay on draft-eligible talent, argues Ronald Blum of the Associated Press (via the Denver Post). Draft spending has remained flat over the last three years, with Blum calculating that an analogous increase of total cash commitments to that observed in free agency — which was often the case prior to the new rules — might have delivered an additional $100MM to amateur players over that span. This area is obviously full of complicated questions, including considerations of an international draft, and it’s extremely difficult to identify clear-cut solutions. The piece is full of interesting quotes from notable figures around the game, and is well worth a full read.
NL West Notes: Jansen, Kendrick, Lee, McGehee, Lyles
The sudden nature of Kenley Jansen‘s unavailability on Wednesday evening led to a good deal of speculation following the contest, especially when the Dodgers saw a two-run ninth-inning lead turn into a loss after Jansen’s bullpen mates couldn’t hold off the Rockies. After the game, manager Don Mattingly told reporters that Jansen wasn’t available and that he learned as much during the game, but he provided no further details. Bill Plunkett of the O.C. Register was among those to report yesterday, however, that Mattingly was merely respecting his closer’s wishes. Jansen woke up Wednesday morning feeling sick and dehydrated, and he told the team in the fifth inning of the game. Given his symptoms and history of heart problems, the Dodgers game him an IV and performed an electrocardiogram, after which the doctor recommended that he not play. Jansen said frustration and feeling as though he let the team down were the reasons that he did not wish to address the media Wednesday evening. The 27-year-old righty has been perfect since returning from the DL this season, firing six scoreless innings with an 11-to-0 K/BB ratio.
Here’s more from the NL West…
- In other Dodgers injury news, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick reports (Twitter links) that Howie Kendrick, who was injured while sliding into third base on Wednesday, underwent an MRI that revealed no structural damage. Kendrick, however said he “[doesn’t] know what will happen” if the knee is not feeling any better today, suggesting that he could miss a bit of time with the injury. Gurnick also says that right-handed pitching prospect Zach Lee has been experiencing a tingling sensation in his fingers and is being examined by doctors in Los Angeles. That’s a troublesome ailment for a team that is working with a thin rotation. Lee, long regarded as one of L.A.’s more promising arms, has a 2.38 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 56 1/3 innings at Triple-A this season.
- Giants GM Bobby Evans addressed the team’s third base situation in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM yesterday and indicated that recently optioned Casey McGehee could return in the near future (Twitter links). Said Evans: “We’ve given Matt Duffy a long look there and we’ll continue to, there’s a chance McGehee could be back up here soon as well. We’ll continue to monitor that, but we have fallback options in that area.” The Giants will certainly hope that McGehee can solidify the position, and he does indeed seem to have corrected his swing at Triple-A. In 46 plate appearances with Sacramento, McGehee is hitting a hefty .357/.391/.571 with a pair of homers and three doubles. Giants third basemen are hitting .255/.294/.380, though McGehee’s own struggles at the plate have contributed to that rather unimpressive collective effort.
- Rockies right-hander Jordan Lyles, who is out for the season due to a foot injury that he describes as “Tommy John for my toe” (Lyles has a torn ligament in his big toe), knew that he needed surgery when he took the hill for his last outing, writes the Denver Post’s Nick Groke. “I was trying to hold off the inevitable,” said Lyles. “They didn’t think I’d be able to handle the pain. But being a hard-head, I said, ‘Well, let’s see about that.'” Lyles said that making the final start, which he left in the second inning, didn’t worsen his injury anymore, as the damage had already been done. Rather, he took the mound simply because he “was trying to be a good teammate.” Lyles adds that during his last injury absence, he developed a split-fingered changeup to add to his pitch arsenal. “Now I’ve got a few more months to find something else,” he told Groke.
Jordan Lyles Out For Year With Toe Injury
Rockies righty Jordan Lyles will miss the rest of the season after suffering an injury to his left big toe, the club announced (via Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post). The digit’s medial collateral ligament and capsule require repair.
Acquired as part of the pre-2014 Dexter Fowler trade, Lyles had something of a breakout season in his first year with Colorado. An unfortunate left hand fracture caused him to miss significant time, and he was far less effective after the season’s first month, but things were pointing up on the whole.
After agreeing to a $2.48MM deal to avoid arbitration, Lyles figured as one of the Rockies’ best starters. The results have not been there, as his ERA sits at a somewhat disappointing 5.14 and he’s dropped back to 5.5 K/9.
But the 25-year-old has maintained his velocity and approximately 50% groundball rate. And FIP credits him with his lowest annual mark (an evaluation not shared by xFIP and SIERA, however).
It does not seem like the Rockies are going anywhere this year, with or without Lyles, but the loss of another competent arm could make a date at the auction block more likely for several veterans. In the long run, Colorado will probably not be too concerned about Lyles’ ability to bounce back, particularly since the injury isn’t to his arm.
With the Rockies having tendered a contract to TJ patient Tyler Chatwood last year, I’d expect they’ll do the same next fall with Lyles.