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AL Notes: Lester, Scherzer, Red Sox, Avila

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Which of this offseason’s free agents are most likely to justify their contracts? It’s hard to say, given that we most big-name free agents haven’t even agreed to terms yet, but Doug Miller polled MLB.com’s writers to compile a list of top free agents, and they think Jon Lester’s next contract is most likely to turn out to be a good one. Miller notes that contracts for pitchers often go south, but points out that Lester is healthy, left-handed and relatively young, and has been a consistently strong performer. Perhaps the most outside-the-box choice is Andrew Miller at No. 3, the idea being that Miller’s lack of closer status will limit him on the market, perhaps to three years and under $30MM. Here are the latest notes from the American League:

  • Scott Boras told Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio he has not heard anything from the Tigers indicating they are not interested in re-signing Max Scherzer. MLB.com’s Jason Beck has a partial transcript of the interview, including Boras saying he is not worried about the lack of teams linked to Scherzer while implying clubs may sign his client and then open a spot in their rotation by trading another of their starters calling this “a two-step process.”
  • Speaking of Scherzer (the top ranked free agent on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list), the Boston Herald’s Michael Silverman believes the Red Sox should kick those tires because their rotation is in shambles. Lester is the preferred option, according to Silverman, but a trade for Cole Hamels may wind up being the surest route for the Red Sox to get the caliber of starter they need.
  • The Tigers have until Thursday to exercise Alex Avila’s 2015 option, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. If the Tigers opt for the $200K buyout rather than the $5.4MM option, Morosi notes Avila will remain on their roster because he is still arbitration eligible.

Cafardo On Lester, Hamels, Iwakuma, Sandoval

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wonders if the Dodgers’ outfield surplus could net them a solution to their shortstop situation.  Los Angeles isn’t expected to re-sign Hanley Ramirez and with underwhelming options on the open market, it stands to reason that the Dodgers could explore trading from their strongest area to find a replacement.  Earlier this week, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman acknowledged that “the best course of action” would probably be to trade one of Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, or Carl Crawford.  More from today’s column..

  • While Jon Lester is reportedly receiving “legitimate interest” from six interested clubs, some are skeptical about his market.  “Really? Six teams are going to be six years at $150 million for Jon Lester?” said one NL executive. “Sounds like agent enhancement of his client to me.”
  • The Red Sox have already shot down a couple of proposals from the Phillies involving Cole Hamels.  Cafardo expects the Phillies to reopen talks with Boston.
  • The Mariners have fielded inquiries from a few teams on Hisashi Iwakuma and the Red Sox have had at least internal conversations about the 33-year-old right-hander. The Mariners, meanwhile, would want an impact hitter like Yoenis Cespedes in return.
  • It’s expected that the Red Sox would want to offer Pablo Sandoval a contract with bonuses that would reward him for staying within a certain range.  A Giants official told Cafardo that Sanoval lost almost 30 pounds in the offseason only to gain 20 of them back during the season.  The CBA forbids teams from taking money away from players for gaining weight, but they can incentivize staying trim.
  • Mark Mulder continues to work toward a comeback but he indicated to Cafardo that he’s not 100% sure it will happen.  Mulder was making a run at it last offseason when during one of his workouts he tore his Achilles.  Afterwards, the hurler returned to ESPN as an analyst.
  • Rival scouts have worked hard to cut through the hype in their evaluations of the Red Sox’s pitching prospects.  The biggest debate concerns Henry Owens and how his 92-mile-per-hour fastball and slow curve would play in the big leagues.  Meanwhile, some believe that left-hander Brian Johnson might be the best pitcher in Boston’s system.
  • Cafardo reported last week that the Tigers are listening to trade proposals on Alex Avila and mentioned the Braves and Red Sox as possible suitors for his left-handed bat. Today, Cafardo added the Cardinals as a team that could see him as a solid backup option.

Quick Hits: Tigers, Yankees, Burnett, Hellickson

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The Tigers are a team built to win in the present, but that doesn’t mean their future has to be bleak, Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs writes. The team’s recent four-year deal for Victor Martinez is one of many Tigers contracts that could turn ugly, and the team already has $75MM on the books in 2018 for Martinez, Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander. But that doesn’t mean they won’t have any flexibility. Considering the likelihood of modest payroll increases in the coming seasons, they could have a payroll north of $180MM in 2018. That would give them enough leeway to have a shot even with their current commitments and thin farm system. Sullivan suggests that one future-oriented move the Tigers could make would be to sign J.D. Martinez to a long-term deal. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.

  • Yankees first baseman Greg Bird has been named the MVP of the Arizona Fall League. Bird, a fifth-round pick out of high school in 2011, hit .271/.376/.472 in a 2014 season split between Class A+ Tampa and Double-A Trenton. Bird then hit .313/.391/.556 in 26 games with the Scottsdale Scorpions. The 22-year-old Bird isn’t on the same level as the previous winner, Cubs super-prospect Kris Bryant, but he could still potentially play his way onto the Yankees roster at some point in 2015.
  • Re-signing David Robertson is the Yankees’ highest priority this offseason, Bill Madden of the New York Daily News writes. The Royals’ success shows how important a good bullpen can be, and how much a good ’pen can do to help starters who don’t rack up high innings totals. With Robertson, Dellin Betances, Adam Warren, Jacob Lindgren, Shawn Kelley and new acquisition Justin Wilson, the Yankees could have one of the stronger bullpens in the Majors in 2015, Madden writes. On the flip side, the Yankees would like to re-sign starter Brandon McCarthy, but they think they’ll be able to replace him if another team outbids them.
  • A.J. Burnett is a back-end starter at this point, but his new discount contract is still a good one for the Pirates, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs writes. The deal is only for one year, and it’s likely to produce about 1.5 WAR in value, which is a solid rate for an $8.5MM contract. Meanwhile, the Pirates’ homer-suppressing ballpark, defensive shifting and emphasis on pitch framing make Pittsburgh a great destination for pitchers.
  • Dave Stewart of the Diamondbacks sees Jeremy Hellickson as “a number two or number three starter,” Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. The prospects the Diamondbacks sent to the Rays, Justin Williams and Andrew Velazquez, both have potential. (Williams hit .351/.403/.437 in 320 plate appearances in rookie ball and at Class A South Bend this season, impressive numbers for an 18-year-old at any level.) But for Stewart, Hellickson’s talent was more important, and he can help the Diamondbacks now. “They could both be All-Stars, but from our standpoint they’re three or four years away from being major league players,” says Stewart. “We have an opportunity to get a good starter to put in our rotation now and go along with our plans for our team with the 2015 season.”

AL Notes: Ryan, Hunter, Miller, Bonifacio, Front Office

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Twins GM Terry Ryan is “doing well” after his bout with throat cancer, writes MLB.com’s Barry Bloom. The 61-year-old still is experiencing various forms of discomfort, but has completed radiation and is back at full force in the Minnesota front office.

Here’s more out of the American League:

  • The Tigers will not pursue Torii Hunter after inking Victor Martinez and trading for Anthony Gose, GM Dave Dombrowski told reporters today, including George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press. “I called and said it just didn’t look like it was going to fit the way the club was getting put together,” Dombrowski said. “Thanked him for everything. Absolutely love him. If something changes where we make some changes for one reason or another, that we’re not anticipating, we would still be open. It’s just probably not much of a fit right now.” Hunter indicated in an Instagram post that he still intends to play in 2015.
  • The Blue Jays recently met with free agent lefty Andrew Miller, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter. Miller figures to be a highly sought-after relief weapon. Toronto has definite pen needs, as Nicholson-Smith’s colleague, Shi Davidi, told me on this week’s podcast, and as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk wrote in previewing the club’s offseason.
  • Free agent utility man Emilio Bonifacio is receiving interest from his former teams, including the Blue Jays and Royals, Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com tweets. (Cotillo also lists the Cubs as a team with possible interest.) Bonifacio should have his pick of situations given his versatility and place on the market.
  • The Red Sox have promoted Mike Rikard to become the team’s scouting director, according to a tweet from Clint Longenecker, formerly of Baseball America. He replaces Amiel Sawdaye, who will be promoted to a vice president role, according to Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal (via Twitter). Longenecker himself is moving on to join the Indians, Baseball America’s John Manuel tweets.

Tigers Re-Sign Victor Martinez

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5:10pm: Martinez will be paid $14MM in 2015 and then $18MM from 2016-18, tweets Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. He also receives a 10-team no-trade clause for the 2015 season, after which his full 10-and-5 rights kick in.

12:40pm: Victor Martinez was reportedly the Tigers’ top priority this offseason, and the team characteristically struck quickly, announcing Friday a new four-year deal that will reportedly guarantee the Octagon client $68MM to reprise his role as the club’s primary DH. The contract reportedly contains some no-trade protection as well.

Victor Martinez

Despite the potential loss of other key free agents Max Scherzer and Torii Hunter., bringing Martinez back was of utmost importance to Detroit.  The 35-year-old Martinez enjoyed perhaps the finest offensive season of his 12-year career in 2014, slashing .335/.409/.565 with a career-high 32 homers. He led the league in both on-base percentage and OPS. At the GM Meetings in Phoenix today, GM Dave Dombrowski told MLBTR’s Jeff Todd that it is hard to set a ceiling on Martinez’s value to the Tigers. Declining to discuss specifics, Dombrowski said that the club knows it will need to pay a steep price to retain the DH, but will push hard to do so and thereby maintain its dangerous 3-4-5 combination.

As Jeff highlighted earlier today, the Tigers already have $146MM in commitments to the 2015 roster when factoring in guaranteed contracts and projected arbitration salaries. Martinez will reportedly earn $17MM per season, bringing Detroit’s commitment to next year’s roster to a hefty $163MM — just $1MM shy of the team’s franchise record Opening Day payroll of $164MM, set this past season. At this point, it seems likely that they’ll exceed that mark, barring some trades to alleviate salary, as the club is reportedly interested in beefing up its bullpen as well and still has some potential question marks in the outfield.

Martinez, one of the most attractive bats on the free agent market, has also been connected to the Mariners, White Sox and Blue Jays at various points over the past month or so. Some questioned whether the Tigers had the capability to add yet another significant long-term contract to the books with the likes of Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera and, to a lesser extent, Anibal Sanchez and Ian Kinsler bogging down the team’s payroll in future seasons. The four-year commitment to Martinez runs through the 2018 season — the same year in which Cabrera and Verlander are owed respective salaries of $30MM and $28MM. Detroit is also committed to paying $6MM of Prince Fielder’s salary that season even though he, of course, is now with the Rangers.

From a roster standpoint, the long-term commitment to Martinez is significant, in that it prevents a roadblock to giving Cabrera any significant time at DH over the next four seasons. While Cabrera is again playing first base (and doing a fine job, per UZR and DRS) rather than struggling to get by at the hot corner, he’s also begun to show signs of age, playing through significant injuries in each of the past two seasons. Detroit will now have to hope that the aging MVP candidate’s body can hold up for four more seasons of full-time duty in the field (or close to it).

The Tigers made a one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offer to Martinez, who naturally rejected in favor of testing the open market. Had he signed elsewhere, the Tigers would have netted a compensatory draft pick. However, he’ll instead return to the fold, perhaps for the remainder of his career, as he’s said he doesn’t want to play past 40, and this contract would run through his age-39 season. Martinez’s departure from the free agent market is good news for other bats such as Nelson Cruz, Melky Cabrera and Billy Butler, who now face less competition.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported that the two sides were getting close on a four-year deal (Twitter link). Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes noted that the contract was near $70MM in value (Spanish link), and Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported the agreement and final terms (All Twitter links).  Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reported news of the no-trade protection (Twitter link).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Tigers To Re-Sign Joel Hanrahan

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The Tigers have agreed to re-signed right-hander Joel Hanrahan to a one-year, $1MM contract with an additional $2.5MM available via incentives, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). In a second tweet, Nightengale clarifies that the Reynolds Sports Management client will receive a minor league deal with a $1MM base should he make the big league roster.

Hanrahan, who turned 33 in October, signed a $1MM contract with the Tigers back in May as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery and a torn flexor mass, but setbacks in his rehab prevented him from ever pitching for the Tigers in either the Majors or Minors.

Despite the fact that Hanrahan was unable to take the mound in 2014, the Tigers have plenty of reason to be optimistic that he can help their bullpen in 2015. Hanrahan spent parts of four seasons with the Pirates from 2009-12, where he was a two-time All-Star as the team’s closer. He posted a combined 2.59 ERA with 10.4 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 229 1/3 innings with the Bucs, and his walk numbers would be even better were they not skewed by a 5.4 BB/9 mark in his final season with Pittsburgh.

The Pirates traded Hanrahan to Boston along with Brock Holt in exchange for Mark Melancon, Stolmy Pimentel, Ivan De Jesus and Jerry Sands prior to the 2013 season, but Hanrahan managed just 7 1/3 innings with the BoSox before the aforementioned injuries cost him the remainder of the season.

For Detroit, which likely just dedicated a significant portion of its offseason budget to re-signing Victor Martinez at four years and $68MM, Hanrahan provides a low-cost option with more upside than nearly any comparably priced reliever on the free agent market could offer. The team has already invested $17MM in the duo of Joe Nathan and Joakim Soria, and further high-priced bullpen expenditures aren’t expected, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see another affordable arm added to the mix.

Central Links: Reds, Cubs, Avila, Tigers, Tomas, Butler

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Reds GM Walt Jocketty is of the mindset that his team will need to either be “all in” or “all out” in 2015, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. In other words, if the Reds decide to trade one of four starters who is eligible for free agency following the 2015 season — Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, and Alfredo Simon — others may very well follow. Sherman lists Jay Bruce and Aroldis Chapman as names to watch if Cincinnati does elect to go into a full rebuild. Both can be free agents after 2016, though the Reds have a club option on Bruce for the 2017 season.

Here’s more from the game’s Central divisions…

  • Sherman also tweets that the Cubs aren’t likely to spend big on a closer this winter, which seemingly eliminates a potential suitor for David Robertson. Earlier today, reports indicated that Robertson is seeking a contract comparable to Jonathan Papelbon’s four-year, $50MM contract.
  • The Tigers are willing to listen to offers on Alex Avila, tweets the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo. Avila has a $5.4MM club option for his final arb year and was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn the same amount in arbitration. Cafardo notes that the Braves and Red Sox are both looking for left-handed bats. While both have inexperienced catchers (Christian Bethancourt and Christian Vasquez, respectively), adding Avila would limit each team’s ability to get an extended look at how their young backstop handles a full workload.
  • John Manuel of Baseball America tweets that the Tigers’ defense up the middle in 2015 could be special with Jose Iglesias and the newly acquired Anthony Gose. He also notes that Devon Travis, who went to the Blue Jays in the deal, now has a clear shot to Major League playing time that he may not have had in Detroit.
  • The Royals could scout Yasmany Tomas in the Dominican Republic next week, reports Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star. Royals officials will be in the Dominican Republic on other business anyway and met with Tomas’ agent, Jay Alou, earlier this week at the GM Meetings. The team’s payroll could surpass the $100MM mark for the first time next season, and there’s perhaps room for one significant expenditure such as Tomas, Ervin Santana or Melky Cabrera, McCullough writes.
  • Billy Butler is receiving interest from a number of clubs — even one National League club — tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. The interest in Butler likely means that a return to the Royals isn’t the best fit, he adds. McCullough reported Tuesday that K.C. doesn’t seem inclined to go beyond two years to retain Butler.
  • Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel wonders if the Brewers will consider trading a starting pitcher (Twitter link). The Brew Crew needs some payroll flexibility, and the Braves are one team that has been poking around at the GM Meetings.

Blue Jays, Tigers Swap Anthony Gose, Devon Travis

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The Blue Jays announced that they have acquired second base prospect Devon Travis from the Tigers in exchange for center fielder Anthony Gose.

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Of the two players involved in the deal, only Gose comes with Major League experience. Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski tells Lynn Henning of the Detroit News (Twitter link) that Gose will play center field regularly for the Tigers if all goes according to plan. The fleet-footed Gose is known to be an outstanding defender with a questionable bat, though he carried a fair amount of hype upon reaching the Majors in 2012, as he’d previously ranked as a Top 100 prospect according to Baseball America, MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus and ESPN.

Gose hasn’t hit much in his time in the bigs, compiling a .234/.301/.332 batting line with five homers and 34 steals (in 45 tries) over 616 plate appearances. However, Gose is still just 24 years of age and will play nearly all of next season at that age. He’s perfectly capable of playing center field based both on scouting reports from his prospect days and defensive metrics such as UZR/150 (+13.6 in a 900-inning sample) and Defensive Runs Saved (+2). Gose has hit .241/.316/.350 against right-handed pitching in his career, so he could at least fall into a potential platoon with Rajai Davis if he struggles against lefties. He’s under team control through the 2019 season and won’t be eligible for arbitration until at least the 2016-17 offseason.

Gose is no stranger to seeing his name in trades. Originally drafted by Philadelphia in the second round back in 2008, he was shipped to the Astros in the Roy Oswalt trade before being flipped to Toronto in a one-for-one swap with Brett Wallace. Within the press release announcing the swap, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski offered the following statement on Gose:

“Anthony is a true center fielder than can provide us with above average defense in center field with a good arm. He possesses above average speed and can steal bases at the major league level. He swings the bat from the left side and we feel that he will continue to improve his offensive game.  We are very happy to welcome him to the Club.”

While Gose comes with upside, the acquisition of Travis appears to be a nice return for Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos. Baseball America ranked Travis as the game’s No. 84 prospect heading into the 2014 season and just today ranked him as the No. 1 prospect in Detroit’s minor league system (though ESPN’s Keith Law still tweets that he considers Travis a “non-prospect).

BA’s subscriber-only scouting report (subscription highly recommended) explains that Travis has excellent bat-to-ball skills, balance at the plate and bat control. Per BA’s Ben Badler, Travis has the ability to square up both fastballs and offspeed pitches well enough to hit 10-15 homers per season and is an adequate defender at second base who turns double plays well.

Toronto’s interest in Travis is hardly surprising, as the team is known to be on the lookout for second base help that will allow Brett Lawrie to play at third base full time. Travis should fill that role eventually, although he may not be ready for immediate big league action. The 23-year-old appeared in 100 games at Double-A Erie in 2014, batting .298/.358/.460 with 10 homers in 441 plate appearances. Last year, Baseball America’s Clint Longnecker took an excellent look at the changes Travis has made from his days at Florida State that enabled him to become one of the game’s better second base prospects.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL Central Notes: Yost, Tomas, Alexei, Hanrahan

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The Royals have yet to begin extension talks with manager Ned Yost, Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star reports.  “There’s a progression in the offseason.  There’s a sequential way we’re doing things. Right now, we’re focused on other things,” GM Dayton Moore said, in reference to the team’s roster.  Whenever negotiations take place, there’s no doubt Yost will eventually get a fresh new contract from the team in the wake of the Royals’ unexpected postseason performance.  Here’s the latest from the AL Central…

  • Also from McCullough (Twitter links), a group of Royals officials are en route from the GM Meetings to organizational meetings in the Dominican Republic where they could watch Yasmany Tomas work out.  The Royals are a recently new addition to the list of teams interested in Tomas, though McCullough says K.C. has “scouted Tomas extensively, but quietly, leading up to this winter.”
  • White Sox GM Rick Hahn will listen to other teams’ offers for Alexei Ramirez as he would for any player, though Hahn tells reporters (including Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune) that the Sox aren’t looking to trade their shortstop.  “Being strong up the middle is the priority for any good club, and we don’t intend to take a step back there,” Hahn said.  “We’re open-minded and we have depth in the area, so it’s reasonable to hear his name out there. I get that, but it’s certainly not something we’re pursuing on our end or are eager to convert on.”
  • The Tigers have been talking to Joel Hanrahan about a minor league contract, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (via Twitter).  Hanrahan signed a one-year, $1MM Major League deal with Detroit in May but didn’t pitch at all last season as he suffered a setback in his recovery from May 2013 Tommy John surgery.
  • Scott Bream is staying in his current position as the Tigers director of pro scouting, Turner Sports’ Scott Miller tweets.  The Dodgers had reportedly been on the verge of hiring Bream to join their front office.
  • Twins righty Ricky Nolasco’s three-team no-trade clause has been updated for this offseason, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports (Twitter link).  All three teams are “big-market” AL clubs, so Berardino speculates that the Yankees and Red Sox are included.
  • The Twins have hired Gene Glynn as their third base coach, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter link).
  • The Indians could look for small upgrades rather than a big splash in free agency, GM Chris Antonetti told reporters (including MLB.com’s Mark Bowman).  “I think what we would look for from the free-agent market is something to complement our roster,” Antonetti said. “I don’t think we are going to be in the free-agent market to add a cornerstone player.”

Free Agent Notes: Scherzer, Lester, Miller, Rios

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Talk about the market’s top free agent, Max Scherzer, has been scarce to this point, but agent Scott Boras tells Jon Heyman of CBS Sports that he’s not worried about the quiet air surrounding his client. “Premium free agents are rarely talked about at the GM meetings,” Boras said. “This is an owners’ decision. Every GM wants him. There’s always a place for him on every team. The issue is not whether the player is wanted. The issue is whether the owner will make the commitment to try to win the World Series.” Heyman’s piece contains many examples of the litany of stats Boras will use when pitching Scherzer to owners around the league. The Tigers are said to love Scherzer, but indications at this time are that they’re out on Scherzer. That, of course, could change as the offseason progresses, though one Tigers source told Heyman that Boras’ counteroffer to the team’s six-year, $144MM extension offer was “way, way” north of that sizable $144MM sum.

A few more notes on some free agents…

  • While many top free agents take their time to see how the market plays out, a source tells MassLive.com’s Jason Mastrodonato that Jon Lester is willing to sign as soon as the right offer presents itself, “whether it is tomorrow or April 1.” While the Red Sox are known to have a preference to shy away from commitments of four-plus years to pitchers in their 30s (following their five-year deal for John Lackey), GM Ben Cherington implied that the team might be willing to make an exception for Lester, noting that it’s never been a hard policy.
  • Andrew Miller’s agent, Mark Rodgers, tells ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick that he plans to be “methodical” in discussions with teams and doesn’t envision signing a contract in the near future. Miller is open to pitching in a setup capacity for a contending team with an entrenched closer, but he’s also generating interest from teams in need of a closer.
  • The Twins prefer to add a right-handed bat to their outfield this offseason, and while Torii Hunter has been listed in connection to Minnesota, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweets that Alex Rios is another name to watch.
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