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The Rule 5 Opportunity

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This is an original MLBTR article produced by contributor Dan Lumpkin and the MLBTR staff. To read more recent MLBTR originals, click here.

Ender Inciarte and Odubel Herrera will long be linked due to their status as division-rival center fielders who inked extremely similar five-year extensions within two weeks of one another. They’re also linked, however, by the Rule 5 Draft altering their career trajectories.

Oddly enough, it was the Phillies who selected Inciarte out of the Diamondbacks organization back in 2012. Although he didn’t stick with the team all season and was eventually shipped back to the D-backs, Inciarte tells MLBTR he’s not sure he’d be playing in the Majors today were it not for the Phillies’ show of faith.

“You know, I could say I was very under-the-radar in Arizona,” the 2016 Gold Glove winner said. “Not underrated but very under-the radar.”

Inciarte was not seen as a prospect for his organization initially but was invited to play in Winter Ball during the 2012 offseason, and that’s where Phillies scouts got a good look at him and determined that Inciarte might be able to cut it in the big leagues.

“As soon as [the Phillies] picked me it took me by surprise, to be honest,” Inciarte said. “Then I realized what [the Rule 5 Draft] was and what it meant. It really worked great for me. It doesn’t work the same for everybody because some people don’t get to play and others get to play a lot.”

Inciarte played with the Phillies in his first big league Spring Training and did well despite the Phillies’ manager mistaking him for a clubhouse employee on his first day with the team.

“When I got there on the first day, I got there at like 5:00am, and Charlie Manuel didn’t even know who I was,” Inciarte recalled. “He asked me to go get something like his shoes or his hat and I told him, ‘I’m not a clubbie, I’m the Rule 5 kid.”

Inciarte found his way with the big league club, and many of the Phillies veterans saw his ability and encouraged him throughout Spring Training. This, Inciarte said, is what made him play with confidence.

“When I was there, I was playing with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Roy Halladay,” Inciarte said. “I could see all those guys up close. I felt like I was living a dream, right there. All those guys got to talk to me and said, ‘Hey man, you are part of this team. Don’t think because you are a Rule 5 it isn’t going to happen.’ It gave me a lot of confidence. I had a great time there.’”

Inciarte had a good Spring Training and actually made the Opening Day roster for the Phillies as a bench player. Unsurprisingly, he wasn’t in the Opening Day lineup, which would prove to be his only chance to suit up for the Phillies that year. Following the first game of the season, the Phillies signed Ezequiel Carrera, and it was Inciarte who lost his roster spot in a corresponding move. Inciarte was returned to the Diamondbacks.

Though some players might consider it a demotion and a disappointment to just barely sniff the Major Leagues in that manner, Inciarte views his brief stay in the Phillies organization as a turning point.

“For me, it was great because a lot of teams got to see me play and when I got back to Arizona they sent me to Double-A when I was supposed to go to Single-A,” he explained. “Everyone started paying more attention to me. I got more chances to play and prove myself. It was for the best but I know it’s not the same for everybody. When I got back Kevin Towers went to go see me play in Mobile, Alabama. He didn’t know who I was (before the draft). After the Rule 5 is when they started paying more attention to me. If it weren’t for the Phillies, I probably would not even have a chance to play in the big leagues so I’m very grateful for what happened to me.”

Inciarte’s experience with the Rule 5 process is typical — especially for position players. While it’s not uncommon to see a relief pitcher survive a season as the seventh man in a big league bullpen, there are fewer spots to stash position players on a Major League roster. That reality makes Odubel Herrera’s accomplishment of not only sticking on the Phillies’ roster all season but thriving and becoming a key long-term cog all the more impressive.

Herrera split the 2014 season between the Rangers’ Class-A Advanced and Double-A affiliates and put together a strong season. In 545 plate appearances as a 22-year-old, he batted a combined .315/.383/.388 with two home runs and 21 stolen bases. But it wasn’t enough to land him on the Rangers’ 40-man roster, and the Phillies reaped the benefits. Though Herrera had spent nearly his entire career playing second base, the Phils plucked him in the Rule 5 and shifted him to center field.

“I feel very blessed that the Rangers didn’t protect me because I am now in the big leagues and I have a long-term deal with the Phillies,” said Herrera through an interpreter. “Once I found out that the Rangers didn’t protect me, I knew in my heart that another team would pick me up through the Rule 5. … I went to Spring Training feeling a little strange but as soon as I arrived in Clearwater, the manager gave me a lot of cheers and confidence from day one.”

While Herrera’s five-year deal with the Phillies may closely mirror Inciarte’s deal with the Braves, Herrera’s Rule 5 experience in many ways is more closely aligned with that of former Marlins/Braves slugger Dan Uggla. Like Herrera, Uggla was the rare position player to be selected in the Rule 5 and plugged immediately into his new team’s Opening Day lineup despite the fact that he (like Herrera) had never played a game above the Double-A level in his career.

“I was thinking about [the Rule 5 Draft] a lot, yeah,” said Uggla when asked about being left off the Diamondbacks’ roster back in 2005. “I had a good fall league and they left me off the 40 man, so that’s obviously what I was hoping for. I found out in the morning that I had been drafted by the Marlins and it was one of the coolest moments of my career. The coolest moment up to that point.”

That moment, of course, would soon be joined by a great many more exciting moments, as Uggla went on to appear in three All-Star Games and hit 235 home runs in parts of 10 big league seasons from 2006-15. But the rarity of the chance he was given by the Marlins is not lost on him to this day.

“They gave me the everyday starting second base job in the big leagues,” Uggla said. “For a guy in my position, that was unheard of. It involves an extreme amount of luck and timing. I could have gotten called up with any team and there’s a good chance I wouldn’t have got to play. Maybe a couple pinch hits or a spot-start against a really tough pitcher, maybe I would have gotten sent back down. But to be in that situation and to make the team and they just let you play everyday, that was pretty amazing.”

Uggla also credited timing as a significant factor in his opportunity to start playing in the Majors. During the offseason he was picked up, the Marlins were in the midst of a fire sale in which they traded several starting players to build up their farm system. This flurry of trades opened up the Marlins’ depth chart and created an opportunity for Uggla to prove himself against big league pitchers.

“They had just made a bunch of trades and started from scratch with a bunch of younger guys and rookies,” Uggla said. “It was cool. I got to walk in and be at the team meeting and I found my place on the team.”

Rebuilding clubs indeed have an easier time carrying a Rule 5 pick over a marathon regular season, and that was a large factor in Joakim Soria’s emergence in the Majors, as his agent, Oscar Suarez points out.

“As a pitcher, you go in with a second-tier team, like Joakim did with Kansas City at the time — they are no longer a second-tier team by any stretch of the imagination — but going in, they had no closer,” Suarez recalled. “Joakim was a starter, but they had no closer so they put him in the pen, and he beat everyone else out and before you know it, he was their closer. As an agent, yeah, you want any of your players to be Rule Fived, but you need to be realistic. What team are they going to go to? Like, if you are an infielder and you get Rule Fived by the Seattle Mariners, you say, ‘thank you for bringing me to your big league camp,’ but you know they aren’t going to keep you.”

That’s the reality that faces a handful of players each year following their selection in the Rule 5, but the opportunity with which they’re presented is one that is the envy of other players and agents throughout the game. This year, there were 18 players selected in the Rule 5 Draft, and if history is any indication, the vast majority of them will be returned to their original organization. A few may be picked up by other clubs along the way before being offered back, but it’s rare for a player to survive the season and even more rare for them to then emerge as regulars. For the select few who do, however, the Rule 5 Draft will always be looked at as a watershed moment in their career.

“It is a good thing for players like me that don’t get protected and because of that rule now, I’m a big leaguer,” said Herrera. “…I feel very grateful and very humble for the Rule 5 draft.”

Special thanks to Leo Nunez and Estefany Palacio for translation assistance.

Braves Extend Ender Inciarte

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The rebuilding Braves have been working to assemble a new core of players for the past two years, and on Friday they locked up the first member of that group for the long haul when they announced a five-year contract extension for center fielder Ender Inciarte.

The contract, which contains a club option for a sixth season, will reportedly guarantee Inciarte $30.525MM. The Octagon client will receive a $3.5MM signing bonus before earning $2MM in 2017, $4MM in 2018, $5MM in 2019, $7MM in 2020 and $8MM in 2021. The option is reported to be valued at $9MM and comes with a $1.025MM buyout. All told, this new contract will give Atlanta control over two of Inciarte’s would-be free-agent years.

Ender Inciarte

“We are thrilled to announce an extension for Ender,” GM John Coppolella said in a press release announcing the move. “We feel that he’s the best defensive center fielder in baseball and one of the best leadoff hitters in the game.  Ender brings so much to our club, on and off the field, and we are happy to have him under club control for at least the next six years.”

Originally acquired in last winter’s Shelby Miller heist, Inciarte cemented himself as a Major League asset in 2016 by largely recreating a 2015 breakout. Over the past two seasons, he’s been roughly league-average overall at the plate — .297/.345/.395, nine homers in 1139 plate appearances — with excellent contributions on the basepaths and especially in the outfield. Inciarte has swiped 37 bases in 263 games dating back to 2015, and Fangraphs rates him as one of the game’s 15 best baserunners.

Meanwhile, he’s been 17 runs above average in the outfield despite missing some time due to injury, per Defensive Runs Saved, while Ultimate Zone Rating has him at about +13 runs in that same time frame. Among players with at least 1000 defensive innings since 2015, UZR/150 has Inciarte tied for 14th (with Anthony Rendon) among players of all positions, at +14.1, placing him a shade behind the likes of Lorenzo Cain and Mookie Betts in the outfield.

[Related: Updated Atlanta Braves Payroll Projections]

Inciarte, who just turned 26 after the season ended, was eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter as a Super Two player and was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $2.8MM in his first trip through that process. He’ll instead avoid arbitration for the entirety of his career thanks to this deal, which will keep him under team control through his age-31 campaign. The contract is nearly identical, in terms of its guarantee, to the one inked by division-rival center fielder Odubel Herrera in Philadelphia last week (though Herrera did not qualify as a Super Two player and, as such, conceded to two club options instead of one). It also represents a step forward from the five-year, $23.5MM deal that Adam Eaton signed with the White Sox prior to the 2015 campaign when he, too, was between two and three years of big league service time (though also shy of Super Two status).

While Inciarte has been frequently mentioned as a speculative trade candidate as Coppolella and president of baseball operations John Hart have overseen an aggressive rebuild, the emergence of a new five-year deal seems to firmly indicate that Atlanta sees the standout center fielder as a long-term building block. Inciarte is likely to be flanked by Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis in 2017, though there’s a definite possibility that fellow speedster Mallex Smith (who made his Major League debut this past year) eventually gets a chance at a larger role in the Atlanta outfield, either later in the 2017 season or in 2018.

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports first reported the agreement and the guarantee (Twitter links). FOX’s Ken Rosenthal reported the year-to-year breakdown of the deal (also via Twitter).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rangers Notes: Daniels, Inciarte, Cobb, Tolleson, Hoying

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The Rangers have already created some buzz today at the Winter Meetings, and now here’s more out of Texas…

  • It is “unlikely” that the Rangers will sign a “big ticket” free agent, GM Jon Daniels told reporters (including Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News).  Texas has been linked to the likes of Edwin Encarnacion, Ian Desmond, Mark Trumbo and other notable free agent names this winter, and the team has notable question marks at first base, center field and DH.  If free agency isn’t as likely an option for the Rangers, they could continue to pursue trades.  To that end…
  • The Rangers asked the Braves about Ender Inciarte but talks “went nowhere,” Evan Grant tweets.  Inciarte has drawn trade chatter ever since the Braves acquired him as part of the Shelby Miller trade with the D’Backs last offseason, but it is clear Atlanta regards the defensive standout as a building block in center field.
  • Also from Grant in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link), the Rangers don’t have interest in dealing Rougned Odor or Nomar Mazara.  It would’ve been rather surprising to see Texas trade either young cornerstone player, though the Rangers have been linked to some big names in trade talks (i.e. Chris Sale) that would require a major return.
  • Alex Cobb’s name has been discussed between the Rays and Rangers, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports (via Twitter).  The Rangers have targeted such Tampa pitchers as Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi and Drew Smyly in the past, though Cobb would theoretically come at a lower price tag.  He is only under control through the 2017 season and he missed all of 2015 and most of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery.
  • The Rangers are in ongoing talks with Shawn Tolleson about a reunion, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan reports (Twitter link), as the club wants to bring the former closer back on a minor league deal.  Tolleson elected to become a free agent after a very rough 2016 season that saw him lose his closing job in Texas, spend time on the 60-day DL with a back injury and ultimately get outrighted off the Rangers’ 40-man roster.  The season was a stark contrast to 2014-15, when Tolleson posted very good numbers out of the Texas bullpen.
  • Similarly, the Rangers are talking to outfielder Jared Hoying about a reunion, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram tweets.  Hoying, who made his big league debut last season, was non-tendered by the Rangers earlier this week.

Coppolella On Braves’ Offseason Plans

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In each of the last two years, the Braves completed a major trade (dealing Jason Heyward in 2014 and Andrelton Simmons in 2015) soon after the completion of the GM Meetings.  General manager John Coppolella tells David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that the club is prepared to again move quickly if another interesting offer comes along, saying that “we’re not going to wait around for any type of artificial date.  I couldn’t care less about (waiting for) the Winter Meetings or whenever.  The best time to make a trade is when a good trade is offered to you.  We’re always trying to find ways to get better.”  Here’s more from Coppolella…

  • Starting pitching is clearly the Braves’ biggest winter need, though Atlanta is only looking for starters on short-term deals so none of the team’s young starters are blocked.  Not that this winter’s free agent market has a true proven ace anyway, but even if it did, Coppolella noted that this type of pitcher wouldn’t be a target.  “You don’t buy No. 1 starters, you grow them.  You draft them, you develop them,” the GM said.  “For us, it’s not efficient for us to go out and buy a No. 1 starter.  Unless something drastically changes, you won’t see us going after a No. 1 starter.”
  • Barring an offer of “something crazy” from another team, Coppolella isn’t looking to deal outfielders Ender Inciarte, Matt Kemp or Nick Markakis.  Not only are the Braves “not out there shopping” these players, “in fact we’re not really even listening on guys.  Because these are players that we really like and we feel like they fit us well on the field as well as off the field.”
  • While Atlanta could pursue a catching upgrade in free agency, Coppolella reiterated that the team would be satisfied with its current Tyler Flowers/Anthony Recker tandem for 2017.  The Braves could also look to trade for a catcher, though a deal to bring Brian McCann back to Atlanta seems unlikely.  Earlier reports claimed the Yankees asked for either Inciarte or Mike Foltynewicz as part of a trade for McCann, and O’Brien reports that, in fact, New York wanted both Inciarte and Foltynewicz.  Needless to say, talks didn’t get very far.

Quick Hits: McCann, Cards’ Pen, Salazar, Rea

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We’ve long heard chatter about a possible reunion between Yankees catcher Brian McCann and the Braves, and MLB.com’s Mark Bowman provides some hints about where things stand. New York has asked for righty Mike Foltynewicz or center fielder Ender Inciarte to part with the veteran receiver, which certainly sounds like a non-starter from here. An arrangement could yet make sense, Bowman writes, but Atlanta won’t include either of those two players.

Here are a few more notes from around the game:

  • Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch takes a long look at the question of whether the Cardinals can mimic some of the Indians’ success in finding a top-notch relief pitcher to throw in a flexible capacity, as Andrew Miller has done for Cleveland. Goold wonders whether either Trevor Rosenthal or Michael Wacha might be positioned to function in the role that he dubs the “fixer.”
  • Indians righty Danny Salazar may not just be a part of the World Series roster; he may be able to start. Manager Terry Francona wouldn’t rule out that possibility to reporters including Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer. Francona has cast doubt previously on Salazar returning at all, noting that he had yet to throw at full capacity; this time, though, he says the prized righty was able to ramp up his arm speed and “threw the ball really well.” A three-inning sim game this weekend may decide Salazar’s postseason fate.
  • The Padres are still finding cause to hope that righty Colin Rea can stave off Tommy John surgery, which he has sought to do through a combination of platelet-rich plasma treatment and rehab/rest. As AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tweets, the team is deciding just how to give him some postseason pitching work to help make a final decision. Rea could appear in the Arizona Fall League, take part in live BP, or even head out for a partial winter ball run. Regardless, Rea is set to throw competitively in about three weeks’ time.

Atlanta Braves: Top 5 Bright Spots of 2016

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Rebuilding season or not, falling short of the playoffs and finishing with a losing record probably means that more things went wrong than went right for a team. This series, however, will focus on those silver linings that each team can take away from an otherwise disappointing season.

[Related: “Top Bright Spots” archive]

Here are the biggest bright spots for the Atlanta Braves.

Note: Freddie Freeman’s terrific season does qualify as a bright spot, as does Julio Teheran’s to a lesser extent, but not major ones in regards to what was expected and how it affects the team moving forward. Since neither is expected to be a trade candidate, their performances don’t change the outlook for the offseason or for the 2017 season. 

1. Ender Inciarte/ Matt Kemp/ Nick Markakis, OF

All indications are that the Braves expect to contend in 2017 and will be aggressive in their pursuit of two or three starting pitchers that could help send them in the right direction. Trading from a position of strength didn’t appear to been an option a few months ago. But thanks to the late-season success from their starting outfield trio, this is now a viable strategy. Here’s a look at the three potential trade candidates:

Inciarte: .863 OPS, 14 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 7 SB in 60 games; under club control thru ’20; entering first year of arbitration eligibility (Super Two).
Kemp: .914 OPS, 16 2B, 15 HR in 57 games; owed $47.25MM thru 2019
Markakis: .839 OPS, 16 2B, 7 HR in 60 games; owed $22MM thru 2018

The 25-year-old Inciarte is easily the most valuable trade chip of the three, although I wouldn’t rule out the Braves receiving a decent return for Markakis or Kemp. One of the strong motivators for the Braves in the Kemp deal was to rid themselves of Hector Olivera and his contract. Getting Kemp was an added bonus. They’d likely be more than happy to pay his close to $16MM per season salary and would likely be willing to eat a portion of that in an offseason trade if it brought back a starting pitcher who could help in 2017.

2. Jace Peterson, IF/OF

While Peterson’s season won’t likely have much effect on Ozzie Albies’ arrival in the majors—you can probably pencil Albies into the starting lineup no later than June 1st whether Peterson is in the picture or not—his value to the Braves has increased greatly.

Since returning from a stint in the minors on June 10th, the 26-year-old has a .789 OPS with seven homers, 15 doubles, 44 walks and 46 strikeouts. In addition to functioning as a stop-gap for Albies, he could also push Adonis Garcia for playing time at third base, as well as give the Braves another option in the outfield if they were to trade Inciarte, Kemp or Markakis. That is, if he’s still in the organization on Opening Day.

Peterson’s trade value should be on the rise. Young, controllable players—he’ll be eligible for free agency after that 2020 season—who can play multiple positions (including short and center) and get on base at a high clip are at a premium. The combination of youth, talent and versatility makes him an asset for a contender or rebuilding team.

3. Mike Foltynewicz, SP

The open audition the Braves have been holding for starting pitchers in 2016 hasn’t yielded many answers in regards to who can help them out in the near future. Out of all the young, unproven pitchers who have been given the opportunity to make a start, Foltynewicz is the most likely to be penciled into the 2017 rotation.

In what might have been his last chance to prove that he could be a big league starter—many scouts believe the hard-throwing right-hander is best suited for the bullpen—Foltynewicz had more ups (seven starts with one earned run or less) than downs (five starts with five or more earned runs allowed). At just 24 years of age, there is still plenty of room for growth. Another step forward in 2017 and the Braves could have themselves a solid No. 2 or 3 starter.

4. Mauricio Cabrera, RP

It’s not out of the ordinary for a rookie to look much better than expected in the big leagues based on their Minor League track record. Small-sample success can be a matter of opposing teams not having enough information to formulate the proper plan of attack. Once the book is out, word spreads quickly and that players’ weaknesses are exposed.

In the case of Cabrera, his weakness was that he could not throw strikes consistently enough with a fastball that regularly exceeds 100 MPH. Since 2015, his first year as a full-time relief pitcher in the Minor Leagues, he combined to walk 57 batters in 82 innings (5.7 BB/9) between High-A and Double-A. In the majors, where he’s been since the Braves called him up on June 27th, he’s walked only 14 hitters in 34.2 innings (3.6 BB/9) en route to a solid 3.12 ERA with four saves and eight holds in his 35 appearances. If he can throw a 102 fastball for strikes and employ a secondary pitch or two that somewhat resembles the fastball coming out of his hand, extensive scouting reports probably won’t help much.

While their have been a few expected bumps along the way, the 22-year-old has earned a shot to challenge Arodys Vizcaino (any any other competitors who are brought into the picture) for the closer’s job in 2017 and should at least be penciled into a setup role.

5. Ozzie Albies, 2B/SS (MiLB)

The 19-year-old Albies, who spent the entire 2015 season in Low-A ball, was on the doorstep to the Major Leagues before fracturing his elbow earlier this month. We’ll never know whether the Braves were willing to add him to the 40-man roster and start his service time clock as they did with Dansby Swanson. GM John Coppolella suggested the team didn’t think he was quite ready, but it wouldn’t have been a major surprise. He would’ve been the 2nd player in team history from Wilemstad, Curacao to debut at age 19. The other was center fielder Andruw Jones, a five-time All-Star who won 10 Gold Glove awards as a Brave.

A jump over High-A and to the upper minors wasn’t much of a challenge for the switch-hitting Albies, who finished the season with a .778 OPS, 49 extra-base hits (33 2B, 10 3B, 6 HR) and 30 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A. The fast-rising prospect should make his MLB debut early in the 2017 season, teaming with Swanson to form one of the more intriguing young double-play duos in baseball.

[Braves Depth Chart]

Deadline Rumors: Sale, Mazara, Rays, Profar, Rangers, Twins, Inciarte

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Here’s the latest on some names who may or may not be on the move by the August 1 trade deadline…

  • The White Sox are reportedly asking for “five top prospects” for Chris Sale, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports.  It’s an incredibly high asking price but one that at least one rival executive thinks will be met, though others believe Chicago may not actually be serious about dealing its ace.  The Marlins are among the teams who have inquired about Sale but with such a thin farm system, Miami doesn’t seem close to meeting Chicago’s demand.  The Red Sox and Rangers do have deep systems and have asked about Sale, though Heyman reports that the Rangers/White Sox talks haven’t led to much progress.
  • The Rangers are known to be widely scouring the starting pitching market, and if Sale can’t be obtained, Texas will turn to the Padres’ Andrew Cashner or the Rays’ Jake Odorizzi or Matt Moore, tweets T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com.
  • The Rays continue to ask for Jurickson Profar from the Rangers in exchange for a starting pitcher and Texas is still refusing, FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi reports (Twitter links).  Several other Rangers prospects have been mentioned in talks between the two teams, including lefty Yohander Mendez and first baseman Ronald Guzman.
  • The Twins are seen as something of a “backup plan” for multiple contending teams in case other deadline plans ball through, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports (Twitter link).  Ervin Santana, Eduardo Nunez, Fernando Abad and Kurt Suzuki are a few of the Twins mentioned as possible trade chips, though since none of these players are top-tier upgrades, it makes sense that contenders would explore other options first.
  • Barring a knockout offer, it doesn’t look like the Braves will move Ender Inciarte at the deadline, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes.  Inciarte received some trade interest even after Atlanta acquired him from the D’Backs last offseason, though a hamstring injury sidelined him for a month and he hasn’t delivered much at the plate.  Still, Inciarte has so much defensive value in center field that the Braves consider him to be a strong piece for the future.

Heyman’s Latest: Harper/Machado, Braves, Shields, Odor

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Bryce Harper of the Nationals and Manny Machado of the Orioles are young, controlled superstars who look like highly appealing extension targets. Of course, that also makes them incredibly expensive potential candidates for their respective teams, as Jon Heyman explains at todaysknuckleball.com. According to Heyman, there’s some suggestion that it could take more than $500MM over an unprecedented term to keep Harper from heading to the open market after the 2018 season. “We have not to this point had any substantive negotiations about a long-term deal,” Nats GM Mike Rizzo said with regard to Harper. Rizzo did suggest that the team has serious interest in doing so, however. “They know what our intentions are,” he said. “My intention is always to get him on a long-term deal that will make him a National for life. At a very young age he performed admirably, not only admirably, but the year he had was historic. It’s going to be a unique deal. We have a very unique player.” 

As for Machado, he might not be far behind in value if the O’s hope to reach a deal. Intriguingly, the report suggests that Baltimore very nearly agreed to a seven-year contract with its best player at some point in recent years. That would have certainly proved a bargain given Machado’s increasingly outstanding performance, though the terms of the prospective pact are not known. (Neither is it clear what caused negotiations to fall apart.)

Here’s more from Heyman:

  • “A few teams” have checked in with the Braves on Nick Markakis, Heyman writes, but his recent skid at the plate hasn’t helped out his trade value much. Kelly Johnson, too, could become available, though Heyman adds that GM John Coppolella said of Julio Teheran that he expects the right-hander “to be on the team a long time.” From my vantage point, Markakis doesn’t have much value at $11MM per season and with apparently evaporated power. Even if the Braves were to pay down half of his remaining salary through the 2018 season, he hasn’t been productive enough to bring in a meaningful prospect return.
  • The Orioles talked to the Padres about James Shields in Spring Training but weren’t willing to cover even half of the salary owed to Shields at the time. Shields has two years and $44MM remaining on his contract following the 2016 season (if he doesn’t opt out), and he’s earning $21MM this season as well. Shields has grabbed headlines recently, having been prominently featured in trade rumors over the weekend and then suffering a 10-run meltdown earlier this week, which the team’s executive chairman publicly referred to as “an embarrassment.”
  • The Red Sox, too, have considered Shields but are waiting to see how Eduardo Rodriguez performs upon returning from the disabled list (so far, so good). The White Sox, meanwhile, would want the Padres to pay down a significant portion of the $57MM that remains on Shields’ contract (again, barring an opt out). Heyman writes that a source indicated that shortstop prospect Tim Anderson wouldn’t be involved in talks, though that doesn’t strike me as a surprising revelation; even with half of his contract paid down, that would seem like an overpay on Chicago’s behalf. On a somewhat similar vein, Heyman adds that the Padres approached the Tigers about Shields, but Detroit had no interest in parting with any of Michael Fulmer, Daniel Norris or Matt Boyd in a potential deal.
  • Shortly after the Rockies acquired Jose Reyes, the Yankees were willing to part with shortstop prospect Jorge Mateo and pay half of the $22MM that is owed to Reyes annually through the 2017 season, Heyman hears.
  • The jobs of Tigers manager Brad Ausmus and Twins manager Paul Molitor are safe, Heyman writes, though he adds that Detroit GM Al Avila has privately told Ausmus to stop discussing his job security (or lack thereof) with the media, as the situation doesn’t need any extra fuel.
  • Greg Holland could take the mound in August, per Heyman, and he may wait until that point before deciding on a team. Both the Royals and Braves have shown interest to this point, he adds.
  • The Athletics “may be a favorite” for Cuban second baseman Jose Miguel Fernandez, writes Heyman, who also notes that incumbent second baseman Jed Lowrie could help a number of clubs on the trade market. The Padres, too, are said to be considering Fernandez, he adds.
  • Rougned Odor’s agent and Rangers GM Jon Daniels recently rekindled extension talks, and Heyman notes that the team heaped praise onto Odor during his appeal hearing during which his suspension for punching Jose Bautista was dropped from eight games to seven games. His suspension has also given Jurickson Profar a chance to play, and Heyman writes that the former top prospect could be a trade candidate now that he’s healthy. Sticking with the Rangers, Heyman adds that the Phillies lobbied hard for Texas to include Nomar Mazara in last year’s Cole Hamels blockbuster, but Daniels refused to give him up.
  • The Nationals talked with the D-backs in the offseason about Gio Gonzalez, but Arizona wouldn’t part with Ender Inciarte or David Peralta in the prospective trade. Heyman writes that the Nats spoke to a few teams about Gonzalez, including the Marlins. However, Miami wasn’t keen on surrendering Christian Yelich.

Braves Notes: Maffei, Smith, Inciarte, Banuelos

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It was on this day in 1954 that the legendary Hank Aaron recorded his first home run and first two RBIs in a big league uniform.  Aaron’s first-inning single drove in Danny O’Connell for the first of Aaron’s MLB record 2297 career RBIs.  In the sixth, Aaron collected his second RBI in the form of a solo shot off Cardinals’ starter Vic Raschi, putting Aaron on the path to 755 home runs.  Here’s the latest from the modern-day Braves…

  • Liberty Media CEO Greg Maffei tells Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that his corporation has no plans to sell the Braves in the near future, though there will eventually be a “separation” between the team and the company.  “Liberty has been a company that has tended to move through assets,” Maffei said. “It wouldn’t be forever.  Here we are nine years later (since buying the team).  I don’t know when that’s going to be. It could be another nine years.  But someday I suspect the Braves will be out on their own.”  For now, Liberty Media “are happy owners” and Maffei is looking forward to the new opportunities provided by the Braves’ new stadium.
  • Maffei also responded to local criticism that the Braves would be better served by local ownership who spent more on payroll.  “What happens is, we have a budgeting process where the Braves’ management brings us a budget, a payroll budget included.  And I don’t think we have once changed the number,” Maffei said. “It’s not like we come and say, ’Nah, you got to cut that.’ I don’t think that has happened in the nine years that we have been involved.”
  • Manager Fredi Gonzalez wants outfielder Mallex Smith to remain in the majors, Michael Cunningham of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes.  Smith has hit just .162/.262/.243 over his first 42 career plate appearances but Gonzalez feels that more big league experience “will be better for him than going down [to Triple-A].”
  • Smith was called up when Ender Inciarte went on the DL with a hamstring injury, and Inciarte is still around 10-14 days away from a return, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets.  Inciarte is hitting in extended spring training games but has yet to run the bases.
  • In other Braves injury news, Manny Banuelos recently threw a 20-pitch bullpen session but there isn’t a timetable for his return, Grant McAuley of CBS Radio 92.9 tweets.  Banuelos has yet to pitch this season due to a sore elbow, which is a particularly worrisome injury in his case given that Banuelos has already undergone a Tommy John procedure earlier in this career.

East Notes: Kelly, Ozuna, Harper, Inciarte, Sox

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Red Sox right-hander Joe Kelly left tonight’s start in the first inning after walking two of the first four men he faced. As Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald writes, Kelly has been diagnosed with a right shoulder impingement, though little else beyond that point is known. Boston has already been without left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, who had been expected to fill one of the spots at the back of the rotation but suffered a patellar subluxation during Spring Training. It remains to be seen if Kelly will require a DL stint, though it’s worth noting that Rodriguez is slated to throw 70 to 75 pitches in an extended Spring Training game this weekend, as Scott Lauber of ESPN Boston tweets, and he could progress to a rehab stint if all goes well in that outing.

More from Major League Baseball’s Eastern divisions…

  • Marlins center fielder Marcell Ozuna drew trade interest from the Reds, Indians, Mariners, Rangers and Orioles this offseason, reports Jim Bowden of ESPN in listing 10 players that stand out as change-of-scenery candidates. The Marlins sought big-league-ready starting pitching to insert into their rotation in any deal, though, and when no one offered up a pitcher that met their desires, the club instead turned to the free-agent market and signed left-hander Wei-Yin Chen to a five-year deal (with an opt-out clause). Bowden also notes that both manager Don Mattingly and hitting coach Barry Bonds were interested in holding onto Ozuna, believing that they could help him rebound to his 2014 levels.
  • Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post opines that the time is now for the Lerner family, who own the Nationals, to step up and make a record-setting extension offer to Bryce Harper. Boswell notes that in addition to proving himself on the field with last season’s dominant MVP campaign, Harper has proven to have matured as well, taking the initiative to bury the hatchet with Jonathan Papelbon even after Papelbon took the blame for last season’s dugout altercation with Harper. Boswell acknowledges that Harper and agent Scott Boras, of course, may not be amenable to a long-term deal. However, a “career contract” that shatters Giancarlo Stanton’s record $325MM pact with the Marlins could potentially grab his attention. The Post scribe adds that the Nats right now have about as much leverage as they’ll ever have, as Harper’s current MLB earnings are still relatively minimal, the club is contending and he’s nearly three full seasons from free agency.
  • The Braves could be without center fielder Ender Inciarte for another two weeks, writes David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution. Manager Fredi Gonzalez tells O’Brien that an “optimistic” timeline for Inciarte would be late April or early May, though Gonzalez says he’s not certain how much the club will push its newly acquired center fielder and lineup catalyst. Rookie Mallex Smith and veteran Drew Stubbs have been patrolling center field in Inciarte’s absence, though neither has hit much.
  • WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford spoke to Red Sox manager John Farrell about his working relationship with new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. Farrell said that while he’s aware of some front offices that play a larger role in daily lineup decisions, Dombrowski isn’t involved at that level (nor did Alex Anthopoulos when Farrell managed in Toronto or Dombrowski’s predecessor, Ben Cherington, in Boston, he added). Farrell said that he doesn’t consider his relationship with Dombrowski to be drastically different than with his previous bosses, though he did note that his conversations with Dombrowski are in-person more often due to Dombrowski’s larger travel schedule.

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