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Ender Inciarte

Braves Have All The Pieces To Build A Solid DH

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With the DH likely headed to the National League in 2020, the Braves may have a few more at-bats to spread around. As a team, the Braves finished 2019 with a 102 wRC+, the 4th-highest mark in the National League, though they managed to turn that production into 855 runs, fewer than only the Nationals and Dodgers. To repeat at those levels, Atlanta has the difficult task of replacing the production from Bringer of Rain Josh Donaldson, who joined the Twins after putting up 37 bombs, 96 runs, 94 RBIs, and an all-around stellar 6.0 rWAR season in 2019. A regular DH should help.

Atlanta boasts a good deal of depth to utilize in a potential designated hitter role. For starters, there’s the question of whether Johan Camargo becomes a four-down back at third base. Austin Riley may eventually take over the hot corner, but if he doesn’t, there are probably some DH at-bats to go his way. Riley was slated to spend some time at Triple-A, but if there is no Triple-A, the Braves may just as soon bring his light-tower power to the big-league level. Riley definitely struggled closing out his rookie year, but power (.471 SLG and .245 ISO) isn’t the problem. Riley needs to close the gap on his 5.4% BB% and 36.4 K%, but given his youth and potential, he’s probably the guy the Braves want to claim the DH spot (if he doesn’t claim third base outright).

If Riley doesn’t improve the other aspects of his game, then he’s essentially Adam Duvall, another candidate for DH at-bats. Duvall, 31, has a career .229 ISO and .461 SLG at the big league level, numbers that could land him in the middle of the order if it weren’t for other drawbacks to his game. In 130 plate appearances last season, Duvall put together a solid 121 wRC+ showing by hitting .267/.315/.567. That output was bolstered by an absurd .300 ISO. He also had some good luck, as his .306 BABIP was a fair bit higher than his career mark of .271. Duvall could certainly see some time at DH, especially if they want to save Riley for a more stable playing environment, but he has gone just 1 for 3 in posting a wRC+ over 100 when given more than 400 plate appearances. In a short season, however, Duvall has the type of short-burst approach that could perform.

The safer option is to use the DH to rest their four-man outfield of Ronald Acuna Jr., Ender Inciarte, Marcell Ozuna, and Nick Markakis. Acuna will be in there every day, but he can move around the outfield and would probably benefit from a DHing day every now and again. Ozuna and Markakis complement each other perfectly in some ways, with Ozuna the right-handed power bat and Markakis the lefty on-base option, and they can both handle themselves in the field. There’s no reason both shouldn’t be in the lineup, however, especially if Inciarte is healthy enough to spend the better part of most weeks manning centerfield. Inciarte, 29, played just 65 games last season, but he’s a true difference-maker with the glove when healthy (21 OAA in 2018, 20 OAA in 2017). Assuming health, all four of Acuna, Inciarte, Ozuna, and Markakis should find their names on the lineup card most days.

With Acuna taking his spot in right, Markakis might be the guy who gets the most at-bats as the ostensible extra bat. But when southpaws take the hill, the Braves can rest some combination of Markakis/Inciarte while getting Duvall or Riley some run. Both mashed lefties in 2019.  Say they go with a straight left-right platoon: Markakis hit .298/.371/.446 vs. righties in 2019, and Duvall (small sample alert) hit .333/.386/.744 vs lefties. Even take Duvall’s career splits versus lefties (.240/.318/.473), and a leveraged platoon of Markakis and Duvall makes for a pretty potent designated hitter.

This post continues a recent series from MLBTR looking at designated hitters options for each team in the National League. Thus far we’ve covered the Cardinals, Reds, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Nationals, as well as the remaining free agent options.

Revisiting The Braves’ Fleecing Of The D-Backs In The Shelby Miller Trade

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In late 2015, the Braves drummed up quite a bidding war for right-handed pitcher Shelby Miller, who became one of the biggest names on that winter’s trade market. As a controllable, 25-year-old starter who had spent the last year toiling away on a Braves team that lost 95 games, he garnered interest from as many as 20 teams: what’s not to like? This was a player who could boost a team’s playoff chances not only for the coming year, but for the foreseeable future as well—and he was attainable. Unfortunately for the team that won that bidding war, the Arizona Diamondbacks, it gave way to one of the more lopsided trades in recent memory.

In its entirety, the five-player deal sent Miller and relief prospect Gabe Speier to the Diamondbacks, who in turn gave up Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson, and Aaron Blair to the Braves. Just about six months earlier, the D-Backs made Swanson, a 21-year-old shortstop from Vanderbilt, the first overall pick in the 2015 draft. For that hefty price, Arizona got their man.

Miller was coming off a year in which he notched an unsightly 6-17 W-L record, but that mark was wildly misaligned with his 3.02 ERA, which fell just outside the top 10 in the NL. He did that while tossing 205 1/3 innings in his first (and only) year in Atlanta, which acquired him as the centerpiece of the trade that sent Jason Heyward to the Cardinals.

But the D-Backs’ valuation of Miller proved to be severely misguided. In his first year in Arizona, he would go 3-12 and was credited with just 0.6 fWAR. And while you need to look just a year in the past for evidence that W-L records can be misleading, Miller couldn’t hang his hat on a good ERA this time around: his 6.15 ERA in 20 starts was the worst among NL starters with at least 100 IP. Despite the impressive run prevention numbers from 2015, Miller’s price tag portrayed him as a front-line starter when he was probably more accurately described as a mid-rotation arm.

The move firmly declared Arizona GM Dave Stewart’s intent to contend in the immediate future. Acquiring Miller came on the heels of the Zack Greinke free-agent signing, which gave the D-Backs a formidable rotation of Greinke, Miller, Robbie Ray, and Patrick Corbin. Add that to an offense anchored by Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, and it’s not hard to see how Arizona perceived a path to the postseason. However, they would win just 69 games in 2016 and essentially wound up as a re-imagination of the previous year’s Padres, a team that likewise went all in only to fall flat.

Even in the immediate aftermath of the deal, many viewed the deal as a vast overpay on the Diamondbacks’ part. But that negative public perception apparently didn’t bother the club, which was dead-set on vaulting itself into the playoff picture after winning 79 games the year before. It’s an admirable approach, no doubt, to try to capitalize on the coincidence of Paul Goldschmidt’s prime with the big-money signing of Greinke. But in this case, the price just didn’t match the prize. Of course, as we know now, the team would have to wait a year—and install a new front office regime—before they broke into the 2017 postseason as a Wild Card team.

At the time, Swanson was one of the first draftees (and first number one choice) to be traded under a new rule that allowed teams to deal drafted players after the World Series in the year of their selection. He is one of three first overall selections to have been traded before debuting with the team that drafted him. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted in his summation of the trade at the time, Swanson was the latest in a series of moves that illustrated the Arizona regime’s apparent devaluation of draft picks: by trading Swanson, signing Greinke (and therefore surrendering their 2016 top pick), and trading Touki Toussaint, the team had effectively missed out on three consecutive years of first-round selections.

Swanson was heralded as the shortstop of the future for Atlanta, which had just recently shipped Andrelton Simmons to the Angels. And although Swanson maybe hasn’t been the superstar that we expect from a No. 1 overall draft pick, he’s been a good MLB shortstop and showed us glimpses of another gear last year, when he had his best offensive season thanks to improved power output. If that upward trend is to be believed and he can provide even slightly above-average offensive numbers, Swanson can really solidify himself as a building block in Atlanta, thanks to his solid defense at a key position. Check out the growth in Swanson’s hard-hit rate and expected hitting stats from 2018 to 2019, courtesy of Baseball Savant.

Inciarte, meanwhile, wound up being a surprisingly important piece of the deal for the Braves. He won the Gold Glove Award for NL center fielders in each of his first three years in Atlanta, ultimately serving as a nice transitional piece between losing years in 2014-2017 and the contending teams of today. And while he’s seen his role with the Braves diminish over the last couple of years, he proved to be a pretty solid acquisition for a team that lacked quality Major League talent outside of Freddie Freeman. He was a fine guy to pencil into center field every day while the franchise cultivated a core of young players.

Neither Blair nor Speier wound up contributing much to the teams that acquired them: Speier made his MLB debut last year with the Royals, who got him in exchange for Jon Jay, and Blair hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2017. He was a former first-round pick himself, but failed to put things together when he got his chance with the Braves in 2016.

All told, the combination of Inciarte, Swanson, and Blair has thus far produced 13.1 fWAR for the Braves, with more likely to come from Swanson and, to a lesser extent, Inciarte. For the Diamondbacks, Miller and Speier produced a meager 0.7 fWAR. Miller lasted just three years in Arizona, appearing in only 29 games and pitching 139 innings for the team.

Last year, he got a chance with the Rangers and toggled between the bullpen and the starting rotation, but the change of scenery didn’t seem to help his fortunes. He tossed 44 innings of 8.59-ERA ball, striking out just 30 batters. In January of this year, he earned himself a minor-league deal with the Brewers, and was expected to begin the season with the team’s Triple-A affiliate.

Ender Inciarte Unlikely To Be Available In Postseason

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Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte seemed close to a return at the tail end of the regular season, but was ruled out of action for the NLDS after reporting continued discomfort when he tried to ramp things up. He had continued working toward a potential return in the event that the club advances, but that effort now seems all but over.

Inciarte has been nursing a hamstring injury, but he has now also come down with a quad malady. As MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets, the belief now is that the veteran outfielder has no realistic hope of returning to the field of play in 2019 — even if the club is able to advance.

That’s a disappointing development for the Braves, whose NLDS roster — and potential future NLCS and World Series 25-man lists — would look a lot better with a full-strength Inciarte. The club would also dearly love to have Charlie Culberson and/or Johan Camargo available. Without these versatile and established performers, the Braves felt compelled to carry an additional position player (Rafael Ortega, for the NLDS) rather than an extra pitcher. That may not be possible in a seven-game series.

While Inciarte would’ve preferred to finish out the campaign in uniform, he’s still likely to return for another go in 2020. The Braves will owe him $7MM next year and $8MM in 2021, with a club option to follow. It’s possible Inciarte could be dangled in trade talks, depending upon the club’s other moves, but he’s still a highly useful and cost-efficient piece that seems to fit the Atlanta roster.

Ender Inciarte Will Not Return To Braves For NLDS

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The Braves have shut down outfielder Ender Inciarte from physical activity, manager Brian Snitker told reporters including Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter). He’s not going to be a part of the team’s upcoming divisional series roster.

Inciarte had hoped to appear in the team’s final series of the regular season. But it didn’t go well when he tested out his injured hamstring today. The decision was made that he simply won’t be ready when the NLDS gets underway on October 3rd.

Going without Inciarte isn’t a huge surprise at this point, and the impact is mitigated somewhat by the fact that Nick Markakis was able to return from his own significant injury. The club can still trot out Billy Hamilton in a run-and-glove role, too, though he’s not to Inciarte’s standard with the bat.

At this point, at least, the Atlanta organization isn’t ruling Inciarte out for a hypothetical championship series round return. But he’ll need to rest up and test the hammy once more. And it’ll take a bit of a leap of faith to activate him at that point, given the risk of aggravating the injury and the fact that he hasn’t seen live game action in months.

NL Notes: Zobrist, Sierra, Inciarte

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The Cubs have, amazingly, lost five consecutive one-run decisions after another gut-wrenching loss to the Cardinals this afternoon. While much of the conversation regarding the end of their season will focus on this incremental collapse, the Cubs final games are also significant in that they may mark the last occasions on which Ben Zobrist will suit up for the team. A star of the club’s curse-breaking 2016 World Series team, Zobrist spoke at length with The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma about what may be his last days in Cubbie blue–and about the struggles his team has faced in 2019 (link).

“I think so much of it has to do with momentum,” Zobrist told Sharma. “I’m a big believer in momentum. If you get it early in the season, you can be 10 games up at the All-Star break. When I look at every year, there’s this ebb and flow. It just seems like no matter how good the team is, if you don’t start out fast like that, and kind of push ahead in the division early on, it’s hard to keep that momentum and get to a point where you clinch on Sept. 15.”

The Cubs began this year 2-7 and were without the help of the 38-year-old Zobrist for a sizable chunk of the season as he tended to family matters. Since returning to action on Sept. 3, the versatile former Ray has hit .320/.404/.460 across 57 plate appearances–production which should, if nothing else, entice rival front offices considering him for a contract next season.

More notes from around the National League…

  • Outfielder Magneuris Sierra had been in the midst of his first extended success in a Marlins uniform, but it appears that a hamstring strain suffered in today’s game will cut his campaign a bit short, according to a tweet from Wells Dusenbury of the Sun-Sentinel (link). The 23-year-old Sierra, who a lifetime ago was a key component of the Marcell Ozuna trade, did some nice things in 14 September games for Miami, with a .324 batting average across a small sample of 38 plate appearances. That came on the heels of an uneven 2019 minor league campaign, in which he amassed a .282/.337/.365 line in 48 Double-A games before Triple-A exposure mellowed him out a bit (.271/.304/.399 line in 81 games). He did log 36 steals across three levels this year, which should aid him in trying to crack Miami’s outfield mix in 2020.
  • Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte was previously said to be expected back this Tuesday, but the veteran may instead return this Friday, per Mark Bowman of MLB.com (link). It’s fair to wonder if the Braves are feeling a little less urgency now that they’ve clinched the NL East, but Inciarte will nonetheless be a welcome component of Atlanta’s postseason roster. Inciarte, who has been downed with a bad hammy since August, has only logged a -1 DRS figure in 63 games on the grass this year–a far cry from the +17 DRS he recorded for the Braves last year. Speedster Billy Hamilton, Inciarte’s replacement as of late, is 8-for-29 at the plate for Atlanta this year.

Latest On Ender Inciarte

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The Braves are hopeful that outfielder Ender Inciarte will be ready for activation early next week, manager Brian Snitker tells reporters including MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Inciarte is working to recover from a hamstring strain.

When the injury initially occurred one month ago, it was estimated at a four to six week recovery timeframe. Inciarte is already hitting and running, so it seems he’s at the early end of the spectrum.

That’s great news for the Atlanta organization, particularly since the organization just lost two top reserve players to injury. Optimally, Inciarte would get at least a decent run of live action at the tail end of the regular season to ramp up for the playoffs.

Trouble is, there’s only a brief window left. And the Braves must balance the desire to get the outfielder reps — and assess his readiness to contribute — with the need to avoid further injury. As Snitker puts it, “reports are good” on Inciarte’s progress as he ramps up, “but what he does in drills is a lot different than taxing it and playing in games.”

No matter what happens with Inciarte, the Braves are well covered in the outfield. In addition to star Ronald Acuna, the club has welcomed back Nick Markakis from his own lengthy rehab stint and added speed-and-glove switch-hitter Billy Hamilton. With lefty bench bat Matt Joyce also in the mix for a postseason roster spot, along with right-handed hitters Adam Duvall and Austin Riley, it’ll be interesting to see how the outfield logjam is resolved if Inciarte is able to get back and show he’s healthy.

Injury Notes: Hiura, Cubs, Ender, Rockies, Mariners

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The playoff-contending Brewers received terrible news Tuesday when their best player, all-world outfielder Christian Yelich, suffered a season-ending broken kneecap. Fortunately for the club, though, one of its other top players is on the way back from the injured list. Second baseman Keston Hiura, out since Aug. 31 with a left hamstring strain, could get “some at-bats maybe over the weekend and more game action and field action on the home stand, is what it’s looking like,” according to manager Craig Counsell (via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). The Brewers, who are now tied with division-rival Chicago for the Nl’s second wild-card spot, will open up a seven-game home stand next Monday. They’re in contention thanks in part to the rookie Hiura, who has slashed .301/.369/.571 with 16 home runs and nine stolen bases in his first 295 plate appearances in the majors.

  • More unwelcome news for the Cubs, who are in real danger of missing the postseason: They won’t get closer Craig Kimbrel back from the injured list for “at least” another week, Scott Miller of Bleacher Report tweets. The club has been without Kimbrel since Sept. 1 because of right elbow inflammation. Meanwhile, the Cubs will evaluate shortstop Addison Russell when they return home Friday, Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com relays. Russell has been dealing with concussion-like symptoms since last weekend.
  • Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte likely won’t return until the last week of September, David O’Brien of The Athletic suggests. Inciarte has been on the shelf since mid-August with a hamstring strain. It’s the second long-term injury of the year for Inciarte, who previously missed two months with a back issue. Inciarte had been amid a hot streak when he suffered his current ailment, as his OPS skyrocketed from .605 to .740 in the month between his IL stints. He and the soon-to-return Nick Markakis could act as a pair of important outfield reinforcements for the Braves as they gear up for the postseason.
  • Rockies left-hander Tyler Anderson underwent season-ending left knee surgery back on June 11, but he still won’t be at full strength at the beginning of next year, per manager Bud Black (via Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post). The hope is that Anderson will come back “within the first couple of months” of 2020, Black said. The 29-year-old Anderson’s procedure wrapped up a nightmarish campaign for a hurler who was a respectable member of the Rockies’ rotation from 2016-18. He yielded 27 earned runs on 33 hits, including eight homers, in 20 2/3 innings this season.
  • Mariners outfielder Jake Fraley will miss the remainder of the season because of sprained ligaments in his right thumb, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports. Fraley got his first taste of major league action in recent weeks, though he struggled to a .150/.171/.200 line with no home runs in a span of 41 trips to the plate. The 24-year-old offseason acquisition was far better in the minors, though, as he slashed a combined .298/.365/.545 with 19 long balls in 427 plate appearances between the Double-A and Triple-A levels.

Anthopoulos On Donaldson, Riley, Braves Prospects

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Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos covered a host of topics of interest in a chat with David O’Brien of The Athletic (subscription link). Of particular hot stove relevance was his discussion of third baseman Josh Donaldson.

While he declined to dish on the team’s interest in hammering out a new deal with Donaldson, who’s a pending free agent, Anthopoulos left clear that the door is open to a return. That’s true even with Austin Riley representing a big-league option at the hot corner. Riley earned praise from the GM for his outfield glovework. Offensively, we’ve seen cause for both promise and concern. Anthopoulos says he’ll “be curious” to see how Riley hits after returning from the injured list, while adding that “long term we still feel the exact same about him.”

Per Anthopoulos:

“If our best team is with Austin Riley in the outfield and Josh Donaldson at third base, and that makes sense, we’ll do that. … There’s clearly room for both guys; we can see a team with both guys. Problem is, one guy’s a free agent. And I expect the market for him to be strong because of the year that he’s had and what he’s done.”

But what of the final months before Donaldson formally returns to the open market? Is there any possibility of a late-season extension? Addressing the topic generally, Anthopoulos said “there might be a scenario” where the club engages in contract talks during a season. But that’s not idea, he indicated. Ultimately, there’s really no reason to believe Donaldson won’t become a free agent. After all, that was the point of his decision to take a one-year deal in the first place.

There’s some clear spillover to the Atlanta outfield situation. There’ll be room to add there, with Nick Markakis headed for free agency. That’s all the more true if Riley ends up sliding over to third base. It’s an interesting situation for the Braves, who have two highly regarded young outfielders knocking on the door in Cristian Pache and Drew Waters.

Anthopoulos made clear he’s not planning to head into Spring Training next year with a plan to turn over jobs to the young and unproven duo of Pache and Waters. “We love those guys; we think they’re going to be really good players,” Anthopoulos explains. “We just have no idea when. And you can’t go into a season counting on those guys.”

But that doesn’t answer the question of just how aggressive the Braves will be in pursuing outfield help. Riley’s flexibility gives the team options. Ender Inciarte remains a notable part of the picture. Perhaps Markakis will again be a candidate to return. There’s an argument to be made that the Braves ought to pursue a big bat to put alongside superstar Ronald Acuna Jr.

It’s equally arguable that a placeholding/platoon approach would be more sensible, with resources being utilized instead in other areas. In that case, the concept would be to hold down the fort while Pache and Waters make their case for a promotion. As Anthopoulos puts it, the team can and will “find a way to get them up” once the prospects force the situation.

Ender Inciarte Placed On Injured List

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Following a string of earlier reports regarding the hamstring injury sustained by Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte yesterday, the team has officially placed him on the 10-day injured list. Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution shares that Inciarte is expected to be out 4-6 weeks after an MRI scan revealed a strain of the Grade 2 variety (link). Outfielder Adam Duvall has been recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett to take Inciarte’s place on the active roster.

2019 has been a hard-luck season for Inciarte so far: it was just four weeks ago that the defensively gifted outfielder was activated after missing 55 games with an injury to the lumbar region in his torso. Since that activation, Inciarte had rebounded with a .293 batting average and 15 RBI in 90 plate appearances. Though his contact-and-defense profile has never been a glamorous one, Inciarte’s absence is sure to cause frustration for a Braves team already thoroughly bitten by injury bugs.

While the Braves hold a 4.5 game lead on their NL East counterparts, the team has had a hard time keeping key players on the field in recent weeks. After injuries to Nick Markakis and Austin Riley, Inciarte’s month-plus departure will reduce Atlanta’s grass patrol to Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Joyce, Charlie Culberson, Rafael Ortega, and the just-promoted Duvall–a rather thin crew after the talented sophomore from Venezuela.

Braves fans may have hoped that an Inciarte injury would, at least on the bright side, result in the promotion of one of Cristian Pache or Drew Waters, but Atlanta will turn instead to the veteran Duvall as a depth fill-in. After being acquired from the Reds last year, the Braves tendered a $2.875MM salary to the battle-tested slugger this offseason. He’s spent the majority of 2019 in Triple-A but has been a roughly league-average hitter when called upon in 19 MLB games this year (.250/.297/.500 slash line and 99 wRC+). Inciarte’s injury will also precipitate a temporary move back to center field for Acuna Jr., per Burns’ report.


Braves Remove Ender Inciarte With Hamstring Injury

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10:02pm: Inciarte’s injury does indeed look “significant,” Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweets. The Braves will further evaluate him Saturday.

7:17pm: Already facing mounting health challenges, the Braves are now left with another potentially significant injury. Center fielder Ender Inciarte was removed from tonight’s game with what the team is labeling a right hamstring injury, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution was among those to cover on Twitter.

After a slow start at the plate, Inciarte suffered a lumbar strain that robbed him of a significant chunk of the season. While his status with the club once seemed in question, Inciarte has been on fire at the plate since returning. He’s now a critical part of the team’s outfield mix with Nick Markakis and Austin Riley on the shelf (and the latter having endured a lengthy slump).

While we won’t know more about Inciarte’s status until he has undergone further medical review, it’s quite worrisome to see him limp off with a hammy problem. There are just six weeks left in the regular season, with the postseason beckoning thereafter, so there’s not much time to give a significant muscle injury adequate rest. The club will have to hope that it’s just a low-grade strain.

Earlier today, the Braves demoted Adam Duvall and Johan Camargo, both of whom have struggled at the plate in recent weeks. The former seems like an obvious replacement option — that’s the entire reason he was tendered a contract and kept all season long, after all — and he’ll be able to come right back from Gwinnett without waiting the usual ten days if Inciarte hits the injured list. But that would leave a suboptimal outfield group to supplement Ronald Acuna, with Duvall potentially joining Matt Joyce, Charlie Culberson, and Rafael Ortega as options.

If Inciarte ends up being diagnosed with a significant injury, it’s likely the Braves will end up taking a hard look at the waiver wire for upgrades. Left-handed-hitting speed demon Billy Hamilton did just come available today; he carries a generally similar profile to Inciarte, albeit with much lesser abilities with the bat. Some will no doubt raise the call for top prospects Christian Pache and Drew Waters. It’d certainly be a bold and fascinating gambit for the team to promote either of the talented twenty-year-olds, though there’s no real indication whether that will seriously be considered.

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