Front Office Originals

This week's mailbag covers the trade value of Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, and Nolan Arenado, the Orioles' need this winter, the Astros' infield logjam, Kyle Schwarber's Hall of Fame candidacy, and how the Red Sox might approach first base next year.

Sam asks:

Assuming Willson Contreras agrees to waive his NTC, what sort of return would the Cardinals receive? Same question for Sonny Gray too please. (Assuming that Arenado is not moved or that the Cardinals eat most of his contract in exchange for a PTBNL or similar from his limited list of teams)

Hugh asks:

Assuming Arenado and Gray waive NTCs, what are the chances Cardinals can move them? Would Arenado be a non-tender candidate?

It's difficult to just assume Contreras, Gray, or Arenado would waive their no-trade clauses, even for the sake or argument.  That's because those players would basically never entertain saying, "OK, I consent to a trade to any of the other 29 teams.  Go for it!"  They'd do something like what Arenado did last winter: provide a list of approved teams, and/or tell the GM you'll take it on a case-by-case basis if a deal is close.

I think these questions are more to get at what kind of trade value each player has, so let's assess that.

Contreras, 34 next May, became a full-time first baseman for the Cardinals this year.  Perhaps a new team would consider using him behind the plate here or there, especially if the automated ball-strike system is implemented, but we'll mostly consider him a first baseman/DH.

Contreras dealt with some minor injuries this year, but had avoided the IL until today.  His season has ended due to a right shoulder strain.  Contreras managed to post a solid 123 wRC+ in a career-high 563 plate appearances, good for 2.8 FanGraphs WAR in 135 games.

If we give Contreras some grace for having to adjust to his new defensive duties in April, it's worth noting that he had a 135 wRC+ since May.  This is a potential top-20 hitter in the game with plenty of red on his Statcast page who can arguably hang with the likes of Rafael Devers and Bryce Harper.  I don't think Contreras has that reputation, but that's what I see.  As a cherry on top, his first base defense appears to be average or better.

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This week's mailbag gets into potential offseason targets for the Giants and Nationals, the potential free agencies of Trent Grisham and Ha-Seong Kim, and the Mets' current six-man rotation.

Neil asks:

Giants fan here. They are killing me with this Jekyll and Hyde act on offense this year. It's the .500 team I was expecting but they need more team speed and the OF defense gives me a headache. Who should they target in free agency?

Todd asks:

I see my Giants are hanging on (barely!) in the West, but looking forward to next year, who do they need to acquire to be given an 'A' for their off-season next March? Obviously pitching is needed, I'm interested in specific names who they should be targeting. Thanks!

Let's do a Giants rundown!

• C: Having Patrick Bailey as the starter represents a choice to sacrifice offense at the position for Gold Glove defense.  That strategy can work, but you'd ideally make up for the dead spot in the lineup in some other way.
• 1B: Rafael Devers seems to be improving defensively; he's been splitting time at first base with Dominic Smith.  In August, Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote that the situation "could turn into a timeshare dependent on top prospect Bryce Eldridge’s development at the position."  Eldridge, 21 in October, has a 100 wRC+ in 260 Triple-A plate appearances.  He's still the 19th-ranked prospect in baseball, so if and when he figures out Triple-A, he's expected to share first base and DH with Devers.
• 2B: Tyler Fitzgerald, the Giants' innings leader at the position this year, was optioned to Triple-A a few weeks ago.  Since then we've mostly seen Casey Schmitt, with rookie Christian Koss mixed in.  Former top prospect Marco Luciano, at times mentioned as a potential future second baseman, has spent the entire year at Triple-A and has been playing left field.
• SS: Willy Adames is settling in with a 149 wRC+ since July.
• 3B: Matt Chapman has had a couple of IL stints for hand injuries, but he's still having a typical good year.
• LF: Heliot Ramos has hit decently with a 111 wRC+ (and no platoon splits), but he's been one of the game's worst defensive left fielders this year.  As such, he's been worth only 1.1 fWAR.  Ramos is under team control through 2029 and won't yet be arbitration eligible in 2026.
• CF: Jung Hoo Lee has been solid in his first full MLB season and has a 133 wRC+ since July.
• RF: With Mike Yastrzemski traded to Kansas City, the Giants have been giving Drew Gilbert and Luis Matos some run.  The samples are too small to really tell right now, but perhaps they could form an adequate platoon.
• DH: It's been Devers, Smith, and Wilmer Flores here.  Smith and Flores may depart as free agents, but the Giants shouldn't do anything major here given Eldridge's trajectory and Devers' defensive limitations.

The Giants' offense this year ranks ninth in the NL with 4.37 runs scored per game.  Their wRC+ is an even 100.

That's all the way up to 118 since August, third-best in the NL.  The club has been carried by veterans Devers, Lee, and Chapman in that time, with bonus contributions from Matos and Smith.  For next year, the hope is that Eldridge can come up and contribute, but the Giants can't really count on it.

Second base seems like a clear need for the Giants.  Gleyber Torres will be a free agent again, and the trade market could offer a few options such as Luis Garcia Jr.

The Giants could use a big bat in the corner outfield.  Kyle Tucker is the obvious choice.  The versatile Cody Bellinger would also fit well in San Francisco.  Adolis Garcia would be a cheaper bounceback candidate.

For Neil's outfield defense concerns, moving on from Ramos would help.  Defensive upgrades could include Bellinger, Wilyer Abreu, and Luis Robert Jr.

What's the outlook on the starting pitching side?

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This week's mailbag looks at potential Kyle Tucker suitors, the chances of the Yankees retaining Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham, the Angels' history in free agency, extension ideas for the Royals and Cardinals, and what the future holds for the Twins.

Colin asks:

Where are some realistic landing spots for Kyle Tucker this offseason?

Why not just assess the viability of Tucker for all 30 teams?  I'm sure Tucker's agents at Excel Sports Management already have.

• White Sox: In their June statement, the team said that Justin Ishbia "will make capital infusions into the White Sox as a limited partner in 2025 and 2026 that will be used to pay down existing debt and support ongoing team operations."  The team's long-term books are already clean.  Could Ishbia announce his presence by signing Tucker to a contract worth perhaps more than six times the team's current record deal of $75MM? Chalk it up as highly unlikely, yet still more likely than it's been in a long time.
• Guardians: No chance.
• Tigers: The club's dalliance with Alex Bregman last winter was notable, but that still wouldn't have been a top-three free agent deal.  Tucker is highly unlikely here based on how the Tigers have operated since Mike Ilitch passed away in 2017.
• Royals: No chance.
• Twins: No chance.
• Orioles: Payroll-wise, the Orioles could manage this, but we've been saying that sort of thing for a while now.  We've only seen one offseason under David Rubenstein, and it topped out with Tyler O'Neill's $49.5MM deal, but he could theoretically surprise us.
• Red Sox: On a team with Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony, and Wilyer Abreu, signing Tucker doesn't seem to make sense.  The Red Sox were in on Juan Soto last winter, and Duran or Abreu could be traded, so we won't rule it out quite yet.
• Yankees: With Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger up for free agency and Jasson Dominguez failing to assert himself, there is a reasonable case to be made here for Tucker.  There's enough payroll space to make it work as well.
• Rays: I was going to write "no chance" and move on, but Tucker is from Tampa and Patrick Zalupski should assume ownership of the Rays before the outfielder signs.  Given that Zalupski can't magically change the Rays' market size, he doesn't have a plan for a new stadium in place, and he doesn't have Steve Cohen type net worth, this is still pretty close to "no chance."
• Blue Jays: Nathan Lukes, Daulton Varsho, and Addison Barger make up a typical Jays outfield right now, with George Springer, Myles Straw, and Davis Schneider also drawing some starts and Anthony Santander on the IL.  Re-signing Bo Bichette or adding starting pitching would seem more urgent, but there's no particular impediment to the Blue Jays pursuing Tucker.  Plus, Excel did the Springer deal with the Blue Jays.
• Athletics: The A's made their statement last winter with a trio of $60-something million contracts (Luis Severino, Lawrence Butler, and Brent Rooker).  That's still a very far cry from Tucker's stratosphere, and he's not going to elect to make Sutter Health Park his new home for the next few years.
• Astros: There's no evidence the Astros got anywhere with extension talks when they had Tucker, and no reason to think Jim Crane will break precedent and give him a huge contract on the open market.
• Angels: With Anthony Rendon's contract almost off the books, could the Angels try for a major free agent once again?  There's no compelling reason to think so, but Arte Moreno is at least capable of swimming in these waters.
• Mariners: The Robinson Cano deal happened nearly 12 years ago; the Mariners would likely have to similarly bowl over the competition to convince Tucker to come there.  Consider it unlikely, but not absurd.
• Rangers: The Rangers are on track to stay under the CBT and thus reset their payor status.  Adding a fourth huge contract running into a player's late 30s might not be the best long-term move, and starting pitching seems more urgent, but a pursuit of Tucker can't be ruled out.

Moving on to the National League:

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