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The Diamondbacks’ Surprisingly Middling Rotation

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Few teams have more aggressively added veteran rotation help over the past two years than the Diamondbacks. As shown on MLBTR's Contract Tracker, 15 free agent starting pitchers have signed for at least a $20MM average annual value since the start of the 2023-24 offseason. The D-Backs have been responsible for three of them.

If we exclude Shohei Ohtani, who was obviously signed more for his bat,  Arizona is the only team to sign three such contracts over the past two winters. The Dodgers (Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell) are the only other club that has signed more than one.

Arizona began with a four-year, $80MM contract for Eduardo Rodriguez. That was a sizable investment for their market size but not one that took too many people by surprise. They finally snapped Jordan Montgomery's extended free agent stay with a one-year, $25MM guarantee and an easily achievable vesting option that pushed their investment close to $50MM over two seasons.

The true shocker came last winter, when they emerged out of nowhere as the landing spot for Corbin Burnes, who wanted to pitch close to his Arizona home. He probably left some earnings upside on the table, but it still took a six-year commitment worth $210MM (with a net present value closer to $194MM after adjusting for deferred money).

They've added those big-name arms to an in-house starting pitching group that included Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt. Maybe they didn't match the depth of some other clubs, but their top six to seven starters look exceptionally formidable. This should be one of the best rotations in MLB.

And yet, for two years running, it hasn't been particularly close to that.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a chat today at 2pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

 

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The Mariners Need To Shake Up Their Offense

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Mariners fans entered the season with something of a sour outlook on the 2025 season. That's understandable, given an offseason in which the front office was clearly handcuffed by payroll limitations and a paper-thin trade market for big league hitters. Armed with a only a reported $15-16MM to patch over multiple needs in the infield, there wasn't a lot out there for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander to realistically pursue.

Seattle wound up rolling the dice on a handful of cost-effective infield options. Jorge Polanco returned on a one-year deal with a conditional player option. Donovan Solano snagged a $3.5MM guarantee. Rowdy Tellez signed a minor league deal and made the team after a big spring showing (.298/.320/.574 in 50 plate appearances).

Frustration was understandable. The Mariners had made a big splash at the prior deadline, reeling in Randy Arozarena from the Rays, but fans hoping for a similarly bold strike in the offseason after another narrow playoff miss were left wanting.

That frustration likely faded for many as the Mariners raced out to a blistering start. On May 7, they sat with a 22-14 record, leading the American League West by a three-game margin and sporting a +31 run differential. One might imagine that the Mariners were again being carried by their brilliant rotation, but that wasn't the case -- at least not entirely. George Kirby has still yet to throw a pitch in 2025 as he recovers from some shoulder inflammation. Logan Gilbert hit the injured list on April 25 and remains there. Bryan Woo has been brilliant. Luis Castillo has been good. Gilbert was his typically excellent self prior to his flexor injury. But the Mariners' starting pitching, as a whole, has been a middle-of-the-pack unit.

Instead, Seattle's hot start was largely attributable to a surprisingly potent offense. Through that previously mentioned May 7 date, M's hitters were slashing .247/.340/.415, resulting in a 122 wRC+ that ranked third in the majors. They were fourth in home runs, seventh in runs scored, 12th in batting average, second in on-base percentage and ninth in slugging percentage.

In the week-plus since that time, the Mariners have lost five of six games and posted a collective .206/.259/.326 batting line (70 wRC+). Typically, there's little sense panicking over a week of poor results, but there was already reason to be a bit skeptical of Seattle's sudden offensive prowess. Good as Cal Raleigh is, he's not going to continue at a 50-homer pace. Polanco isn't going to keep his OPS north of 1.000. J.P. Crawford isn't sustaining a .410 OBP, nor will Leo Rivas keep hitting .341. Those timely early-season hot streaks buoyed the Seattle offense but can't all be sustained.

The Mariners seemingly recognize that some new blood is needed; they claimed Leody Taveras off waivers from the division-rival Rangers and took on about $3.7MM in salary to do so. That was an understandable move with both Victor Robles and Luke Raley on the injured list for the foreseeable future, but it shouldn't be the only one the Mariners consider.

Let's run through a few easy ways to bolster a lineup that is facing even more pressure than usual now that Bryce Miller has joined rotation-mates Kirby and Gilbert on the injured list...

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers!

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MLB Mailbag: Cubs, Astros, Yankees, Mets

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This week's mailbag gets into potential starting pitcher trade targets for the Cubs, possible left-handed bats for the Astros, which Rangers have trade value, infield options for the Yankees, and the Mets' reported connection to Luis Robert Jr.

Colin asks:

As great as Colin Rea and Matt Boyd have been this season, the Cubs need more starting pitching, especially with Steele out for the year and Imanaga out for a couple more turns through the rotation. Sandy Alcantara seems like an obvious shout, but he has struggled so far this year. Who else could the Cubs feasibly target?

Marc asks:

Do you think the Cubs can survive til the trade deadline considering the perilous situation their in with starters?

I do think the Cubs can survive until the trade deadline with a rotation of Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, Ben Brown, and Jameson Taillon, with Imanaga probably rejoining sometime in June.  I also don't think they have much of a choice, as sellers rarely make early deals.

But yes, the Cubs need to add a starter this summer.  Boyd has not topped 88 innings in a season since 2019, a threshold he's projected to reach on June 25th.  I made the case in March that Boyd's recent injury history doesn't necessarily mean he can't get to 150+ innings, but he is 34 and the Cubs' depth can't be pushed much further.  Ben Brown has never exceeded 104 innings, and he's on pace to get there by the end of July.  Cade Horton's career high is 88 1/3 innings in 2023.  In his next outing he'll pass last year's total of 34 1/3 frames.

The following teams have less than a 1% chance at the playoffs, so most of them could probably be persuaded to trade a starting pitcher now: the White Sox, Nationals, Marlins, Pirates, and Rockies.  The Angels belong here as well, but since they're 4.5 games out of a wild card, perhaps they'll need more time to wave the white flag.  Here's a look at starting pitchers who might be available from these clubs:

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The Marlins Could Face Another Rotation Dilemma

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Last winter's offseason trade market featured mostly "baseball trades," swaps of big leaguers at positions of need between contenders. The handful of rebuilders had torn the roster so far down that they didn't have much to offer in the more common type of deal -- a quality player being dealt from a bad team to a good one in exchange for prospects.

The Jesús Luzardo trade was probably the biggest exception. The Marlins dealt him to the Phillies in the middle of December for a pair of low minors prospects, shortstop Starlyn Caba and center fielder Emaarion Boyd. A talented player down to his final two seasons of arbitration control on a team that lost 100 games is generally an obvious trade chip. Luzardo's candidacy was made more complicated by his injury history, most notably a back problem that ended his '24 season in June.

Miami's front office faced a risk-reward calculus. Should they hold Luzardo until the deadline? A strong first half could make him the best controllable starting pitcher available. Another injury would sap most of his remaining value. An offseason trade was the safer play, but it also came with lower upside as a bit of a sell-low move. For slightly different reasons, they may be faced with a similar decision two months from now on Sandy Alcantara.

It's too soon to render definitive judgments on the Luzardo trade. The southpaw's first eight starts with the Phillies couldn't have gone much better, though. He took a 2.11 ERA into this afternoon's start against the Cardinals, in which he fired another seven innings of one-run ball. Luzardo has struck out 26.6% of opposing hitters. His stuff looks as sharp as it did before last year's elbow and back issues. He's performing at a top-of-the-rotation level.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR's Steve Adams is hosting a chat today at 2pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

 

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The Biggest Trade In Nationals History Looks Better Every Day

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The 2022 Nationals found themselves at a crossroads. Washington had sold at the prior year's trade deadline, shipping Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers, sending Kyle Schwarber to the Red Sox, dealing Daniel Hudson to the Padres and trading Jon Lester to the Cardinals. The organization's steadfast hope had been that even while rebuilding, Juan Soto would be at the heart of those efforts to build back up. Longtime general manager Mike Rizzo acknowledged as much in June, plainly stating on the record that he had no intention of trading Soto.

The Nats offered Soto an extension reportedly worth $440MM in guaranteed money. It would've been the largest deal in MLB history at the time. Only after Soto turned that offer down -- drawing plenty of criticism for doing so -- did Washington begin to seriously explore the possibility of trading him. Moving the game's best young hitter when he had two and a half seasons of club control remaining was no small undertaking. It'd require a seismic haul of young talent -- the type of prospect package that several interested parties simply didn't have the inventory to assemble. Most other clubs simply couldn't stomach the asking price.

A limited market of suitors for Soto emerged. To no one's surprise, the hyper-aggressive Padres entered the bidding and made a strong push. San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller throws his hat in the ring when nearly any star-caliber player is available. From the moment Soto hit the market, the Padres -- then armed with one of baseball's best farm systems -- were among the most logical landing spots.

San Diego indeed wound up reeling in their big fish, and it took the type of trade haul we might not see again for years to come. Soto and Josh Bell went from the Nats to the Padres in exchange for shortstop CJ Abrams, left-hander MacKenzie Gore, outfielder James Wood, outfielder Robert Hassell III and right-hander Jarlin Susana. The Padres also sent first baseman Luke Voit to the Nats as something of a financial counterweight, and in a separate deal they shipped Eric Hosmer -- who'd invoked his no-trade rights to block his inclusion in the Soto trade -- to the Red Sox.

It was a jaw-dropping haul. Abrams, Gore and Hassell had all been top-10 draft picks within the past five seasons. Abrams was a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport at the time. Gore had struggled through some mechanical issues in the upper minors but was only a few years removed from being one of the consensus top pitching prospects in the game. Wood was a 19-year-old who was just a year removed from being a second-round pick, and his stock was firmly on the rise at the time of the swap as he ripped through A-ball. Hassell entered the 2022 season as a top-40 prospect in the game. Susana was only 18 at the time of the trade and was in his first season of pro ball after signing out of his native Dominican Republic; Baseball America likened his upside to that of a high schooler who might go in the first round of the MLB draft.

While not every blockbuster trade pans out -- Washington hasn't gotten a ton of value from that Scherzer/Turner stunner, for instance -- the Soto trade has produced a bumper crop that seems likely to form the nucleus of the next contending Nationals club.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers!

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MLB Mailbag: Red Sox, Alcantara, Cubs, Nats, Tigers, Mets, Jays

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This week's mailbag gets into the first base situation in Boston, Sandy Alcantara's rough start, options for the Cubs at third, lefty reliever possibilities for the Mets, and much more.

Clarke asks:

Surely the Gonzalez/Toro tandem is not the answer at first base for the Red Sox and Cora says Devers isn't moving out of DH. They are thin in the minors at 1B. Your poll yesterday showed pretty even opinions (inside and outside organization) for solutions. What say you? External options?

Cornelius asks:

Isn’t the only reasonable path for Anthony is moving Devers off DH (1st base) and using the DH for the 4th outfielders (Anthony, Abreu, Duran, and Rafaela)?

Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic noted, "Before Tuesday’s game, [Red Sox manager Alex] Cora said that he’s had no discussions with Rafael Devers about moving to first base. Devers has been asked by the media to discuss the matter, but so far he has declined to talk."

At the risk of sounding like a talk radio guy, this is the big leagues, and Devers should step up and volunteer to learn first base immediately.  The Red Sox have a 45% chance at the playoffs right now, and making suboptimal choices or waiting too long could cause them to fall short.  For the second time this year, the Red Sox seem to be scared of offending Devers by mandating he do what's best for the team.  As of this writing, the Red Sox haven't even had the first base discussion with Devers!

Clearly, Devers does not take position changes lightly.  From Boston's perspective, I get treading carefully with a star player who is signed through 2033.  But Devers learning first base is better than putting it on a 20-year-old prospect like Roman Anthony.  Anthony has little left to learn in Triple-A and can easily join an outfield/DH rotation in Boston.  Opening up DH also works as a way of getting Masataka Yoshida's bat into the lineup sooner.

You've seen the speculation on external options.  Chris Cotillo of MassLive had a reasonable list, naming guys like Anthony Rizzo and Jon Singleton.  The Red Sox can also look at trading for older players who are mashing at Triple-A and haven't really gotten a shot in the Majors yet, like Otto Kemp, Tim Elko, or Matt Lloyd.  Who else might make sense?

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