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Front Office Originals

MLB Mailbag: Grayson Rodriguez-Taylor Ward Trade, Qualifying Offers, Duran, Abreu

By Tim Dierkes | November 20, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

This week's mailbag gets into the Grayson Rodriguez-Taylor Ward trade, the four accepted qualifying offers, the trade value of Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu, and much more.

Nick asks:

Hi, what is Mike Elias thinking selling low on Grayson? Ward is a good, not great, hitter, and Rodriguez's ceiling is an ace. You guys have been calling for a Singer-Ward swap and I feel like 4 years of Rodriguez, even with his injuries, would have way more value than one year of Singer.

Zach asks:

For real, what's with trading Grayson Rodriguez?!?

In making this trade, Orioles president of baseball operations and GM Mike Elias made a big bet against Rodriguez.

When the Orioles drafted Rodriguez 11th overall out of high school in 2018, the club was a few months away from replacing Dan Duquette with Elias as the head of baseball operations.  So Elias wasn't involved with that pick, but he is intimately familiar with Rodriguez's career and health history.

Once one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, Rodriguez's injuries began with a 2022 Grade 2 lat strain that cost him three months and pushed back his expected Major League debut.  He was healthy in 2023, had some success in the Majors, and totaled 165 innings - the only time in his career he's topped 117 frames.

Rodriguez missed 19 days with shoulder inflammation in May 2024, and then saw his season end that year on July 31st due to what was initially called a mild lat strain.  No one could've guessed that quality start against the Blue Jays would close the book on Rodriguez's Orioles career before his 25th birthday.

The big righty supposedly entered 2025 without restrictions, and claimed he wasn't hurt when his velocity was down in spring training.  But in March he was diagnosed with elbow inflammation, compounded in April by another "mild lat strain."  It was initially thought Rodriguez would return in the second half, but he experienced elbow discomfort while rehabbing and was shut down.  After multiple opinions were gathered, Rodriguez's 2025 season ended with right elbow debridement surgery on August 11th.

As Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun reported, Elias described Rodriguez's health this way at the end of September: "There’s nothing medically to suggest that he won’t be ready, and he’s very determined and not happy about what happened last year."  Elias expressed some caution but ultimately said, "I am bullish on the situation."  The procedure involved removing bone chips from Rodriguez's elbow.

Rodriguez spoke to reporters yesterday.  Here's an excerpt from Jeff Fletcher of the OC Register:

"Rodriguez said he is “absolutely” confident that he can pitch a full season this year. He said the bone spurs had been an issue for “three or four years,” and he believes that they led to the lat injuries. “Just being able to get those out of there, my arm feels great right now throwing,” Rodriguez said. “There’s really no question for me to be ready for spring training.”"

I'm searching for an explanation why the pitching-needy Orioles would trade a pre-arbitration mid-rotation type starter with 238 2/3 pretty good big league innings to his name and four years of team control remaining for one year of what looks like, at best, a 2.5 WAR outfielder.

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Front Office Originals Tim Dierkes' MLB Mailbag

32 comments

Seven Arbitration Trade Possibilities

By Anthony Franco | November 20, 2025 at 11:55pm CDT

MLBTR published our annual list of non-tender candidates last night. The Astros and Braves already swapped infielders in the Mauricio Dubón/Nick Allen trade with the NT deadline 24 hours away. That indicates both players will be tendered by their new teams but may not have been offered contracts by their original clubs (especially Dubón with Houston).

Essentially everyone who was included on the non-tender list could be a trade candidate. There are a few who are obviously not going to attract any interest at their projected price because of injuries or underperformance (e.g. Nathaniel Lowe, Evan Phillips). Teams could shop any of their more borderline candidates before tomorrow. The Rangers are doing so with Adolis García and Jonah Heim. The Astros would undoubtedly be open to moving on from Jesús Sánchez. Players like Ryan Mountcastle, Jonathan India and Luis García Jr. seem likelier than not to be cut loose if no trade comes together.

They're not the only somewhat costly arbitration-eligible players who could be on the move. There are a few others who didn't strike us at MLBTR as plausible non-tender candidates but wouldn't be especially surprising trade possibilities. These players should have modest surplus value yet still might be better served with a change of scenery or on a team that has more budgetary flexibility to accommodate a mid-level salary. Projected salaries are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Spencer Steer, Reds 1B ($4.5MM projection, controllable through 2028)

Acquired from the Twins as part of the 2022 Tyler Mahle deadline deal, Steer looked like a building block of the Cincinnati lineup a couple seasons ago. He hit .271/.356/.464 with 37 doubles and 23 home runs in his '23 rookie season. Even with questions about his long-term defensive fit, the bat looked like it'd play.

The numbers have backed up over the past two years. Steer has still reached the 20-homer mark in both seasons, but his rate metrics are down across the board. His batting average has respectively landed at .225 and .238. The on-base percentage has been below .320 in both years. Steer's overall slugging output is also down despite the similar home run tallies. He has hit fewer doubles (21 this season) as his batted ball metrics have regressed.

Steer graded well defensively at first base and was a finalist for the NL Gold Glove award. That's a nice development, but he's still limited to bat-first positions that require him to hit to be productive. He came up as a third baseman but hasn't played there in two years. Steer is athletic enough to play some corner outfield, but his grades out there have been poor. He also played through a shoulder injury this year that impacted his throwing, leading the Reds to be cautious about how much work they gave him anywhere other than first base. Cincinnati should be in the market for an impact bat, and first base has free agent possibilities ranging from Pete Alonso to Ryan O'Hearn. That could make Steer expendable. The Marlins, Padres, Rangers, Red Sox and Diamondbacks are speculative trade partners.

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Front Office Originals Spencer Steer

22 comments

Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

By Anthony Franco | November 14, 2025 at 12:29pm CDT

Anthony Franco

  • Hey all, hope you're doing well! We can get going a few minutes early

The Knuder

  • I've been asking this question since before yesterday's ownership news, so maybe the Pads' calculus has changed, but I might as well keep asking: what would an extension for Laureano past 2026 look like, and will the Padres offer it?

Anthony Franco

  • You're buying out ages 32+ on a corner bat coming off a very good year but with a lot of inconsistency. I imagine he'd happily sign up for Profar money (3/42) right now. Three years in the mid-30s seems reasonable if you're making that commitment a year in advance
  • Not sure the Padres really need to do that -- I'd rather let him play it out -- but it's not like it impacts the '26 budget so I guess I wouldn't be super surprised if the team wanted to lock him up

Thank you for the chat!

  • Can Ketel Marte play SS?

Anthony Franco

  • I don't think he can even really play second base haha
  • Dude can rake though

JC

  • Would a package around Seth Hernandez entice the Nats to send Abrams to Pittsburgh? Ditto for Keller to Baltimore for Westburg?

Anthony Franco

  • Hernandez as a starting point on Abrams seems reasonable enough. Teams are going to have varying opinions on guys who are that far away, but if the Nats feel like Hernandez has a chance to be a top-of-the-rotation starter, it'd be tough to pass on the upside
  • I don't think Keller's close to getting Westburg. He's a solid pitcher whose contract has a little surplus value. Westburg's a pre-arb, above-average everyday third baseman. Much rather have the latter

Rickey35

  • The A's need to spend about 30-35 mill this off season.  What do you think they do with the money?  Give Kurtz a Roman Anthony type deal or any trades rumor, free agent rumors that are likely?

Anthony Franco

  • I imagine the A's would be on board giving Kurtz that deal. Skeptical the player would. Kurtz has a longer MLB track record than Anthony did at the time -- though no one doubted that Anthony would be great -- and already has a full service year
  • He's also an Excel client and for all the talk about how Boras doesn't like extensions, I can't find any examples of Excel clients signing a pre-arb extension in the past 20 years. Precedents get broken, but Kurtz already banked a huge signing bonus on draft day and is going to do well in the pre-arb bonus pool
  • A low nine-figure extension for Jacob Wilson seems more viable to me and something I could see the A's pursuing. They'll obviously be in on pitching and a veteran infielder. Feels like they should be able to leverage some short-term payroll space to trade for a costlier starter with upside (e.g. Keller, Ray) if that guy's available

Free Agents

  • When do you expect significant free agents to begin signing contracts?  Any inclination as to who might sign first of the bigger / top 25 names?

Anthony Franco

  • Guessing we'll get two or three around Thanksgiving. A lot of the early smoke has been on relievers, so I'll guess Díaz or Williams to be the first shoe to drop

Bruce

  • Thanks for the chat.  What’s the latest regarding the Rangers and Heim/Garcia? If they tender a contract do they have to either ultimately reach agreement or arbitrate (and the Rangers notoriously never arbitrate).  Does  that mean they probably non-tender both unless they can reach an agreement to cut their salaries prior to the tender deadline?

Anthony Franco

  • They need to decide by next Friday whether to tender a contract. That does then commit them to either agreeing to deals or going to a hearing, yes
  • If they agree to a deal, the contract becomes fully guaranteed. If they go to a hearing, they can still get out of it for 45 days termination pay during Spring Training (which is what happened with the Giants and J.D. Davis a couple years ago)
  • But that's a suboptimal outcome. Termination pay still costs a few million, especially with what García's salary would be, and there presumably aren't great alternatives sitting around in mid-March
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Front Office Originals MLBTR Chats

9 comments

Looking For A Match In A CJ Abrams Trade

By Anthony Franco | November 14, 2025 at 1:20am CDT

The Nationals are in a new era. Their stalled rebuild led ownership to fire president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez. Paul Toboni is now leading a front office for the first time, while the club brought in a rookie manager in 33-year-old Blake Butera. It's easy to imagine Toboni making a couple significant trades to add a needed influx of talent to the farm system.

"We're in the business right now of just bringing in as much value as we can to the organization," the new baseball operations president said from the GM Meetings (link via Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post). "However that may look, we’ll stay disciplined to that." The most obvious place would be to entertain conversations on left-hander MacKenzie Gore and shortstop CJ Abrams. Gore is down to two years of arbitration control and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $4.7MM salary. Abrams' $5.6MM projection is a little higher, but he has three years of remaining control.

This feels like the opportune time to move Gore. Any team in a short-term contention window could be interested. He's at least a mid-rotation arm with the upside of a #2 starter. The Nationals could hear from two-thirds of the league about his availability.

Whether to trade Abrams is a tougher call. The Nats presumably expect to compete for a playoff spot within three years. There's less injury risk with a position player than there is with a pitcher. The Nationals could view the 25-year-old shortstop as the kind of core piece whom they're more or less unwilling to trade. At the same time, Abrams has been maddeningly inconsistent over the past couple seasons. He's a gifted athlete who is nevertheless prone to defensive miscues. This may just depend on how a Toboni-led front office that didn't acquire Abrams views the player.

Abrams is coming off a .257/.315/.433 line with 19 home runs through 635 plate appearances. He has hit between 18-20 longballs in each of the past three seasons. Abrams has stolen 31 bases in consecutive seasons and ranks sixth in MLB with 109 steals since the start of 2023. He won't walk much, but he puts the ball in play with middle-of-the-road exit velocities. At his best, he looks the part of a top-of-the-order spark plug. He's coming off a second straight season in which he was only at that level for a few months. Abrams was a star-level performer in the first half of each of the past two years, but he slumped after the All-Star Break both times.

He's not much easier to pin down defensively. Abrams certainly has the frame and athleticism of a shortstop. He has been far too mistake-prone, however, with only Elly De La Cruz committing more errors over the past few seasons. Most of them have been related to poor accuracy. Abrams was charged with 18 throwing errors this year, three more than anyone else. He has committed 38 throwing errors over the past three seasons. As one might expect given all the easy misses, Statcast has graded Abrams as by far the sport's worst defensive shortstop in that time.

Other teams could have differing views on Abrams' defensive projection. There are presumably some who feel he's non-viable at shortstop and would only consider him at second base or as a potential center field conversion. Others could feel the throwing issues can be cleaned up with mechanical tweaks. They could also be motivated out of some amount of desperation considering the lack of alternatives. Bo Bichette could command upwards of $200MM and faces his own defensive questions. Only one team can sign Ha-Seong Kim, and he doesn't have anywhere near the same offensive ceiling that Abrams has flashed. There aren't many clear options on the trade front.

If the Nationals were to trade Abrams, which clubs should make the biggest push? Let's split them into a few groups. Teams are listed alphabetically within each tier.

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Front Office Originals Washington Nationals CJ Abrams

69 comments

MLB Mailbag: Orioles, Tigers, Trades

By Tim Dierkes | November 11, 2025 at 11:53pm CDT

This week's mailbag gets into Orioles starting pitcher targets, whether the Tigers have championship core pieces beyond Tarik Skubal, many hypothetical trade scenarios, and much more.

Tim asks:

I appreciate all the work you put into the Top 50 Free Agent list, as well as the Top 40 Trade Candidates list. My question is: do you really expect the Orioles to pursue any top of the rotation pitchers? I have a hard time believing Mike Elias will pursue such pitchers via Free Agency, as evidenced by his risk-averse history. Please calm my fears that we'll have a repeat of last offseason's lackluster moves.

Ben asks:

After their tepid foray into the starting pitching market last year (Sugano, Morton, Gibson) yielded less than stellar results, do you see Baltimore adjusting their approach on the starting pitching market by targeting more high-end arms? If so, do you think a trade or free agent signing is more likely?

These questions work well together, because we're trying to guess whether Elias will repeat his over-cautious approach to the rotation, or learn from it.

The Orioles were in on all the big names last offseason, but apparently didn't like the prices on any of them.  By January 3rd, the Orioles had committed to Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton.  The only good starting pitcher remaining on the market at that point was Nick Pivetta.

Part of Elias' folly was reliance on Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin.  Injuries have pretty much been constant throughout Rodriguez's big league career.  Eflin had a run of good health from 2023-24, but he was also dealing with chronic knee and back pain.  While he'd pitched really well for the Orioles in nine regular season starts in '24, his success was mostly about strike-throwing.

I've written before in this space that holding on to a well-regarded prospect who ultimately does not pan out is just as bad as trading one who does.  Elias is not exactly going to get fired for holding on to Heston Kjerstad or Coby Mayo last winter, but you have to wonder whether Garrett Crochet or Jesus Luzardo could've become Orioles.  The Orioles gave up Joey Ortiz and DL Hall to get Corbin Burnes, but didn't take a similar chance last winter.

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Front Office Originals Tim Dierkes' MLB Mailbag

49 comments

Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

By Steve Adams | November 10, 2025 at 3:00pm CDT

Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon! I'll get going at 3pm CT, give or take a minute or two. If you've got questions about our Top 50 agent list, our Top 40 trade candidate list, or anything more broadly pertaining to the offseason, let's discuss!
  • Greetings! Let's get goingn
  • going, eve
  • Oh my
  • Going, even*********
  • Bad omen for the chat today, ha

Rangers13

  • What would Padres want for Campusano?

Steve Adams

  • I assume Campusano can be had for little to no return at this point. He's a non-tender candidate. He demolished AAA pitching all season while the Padres trotted out Elias Diaz and Martin Maldonado ... then traded for another light-hitting, glove-first catcher at the deadline (Freddy Fermin)
  • If they had any faith he could catch in the majors, he'd have gotten another look this summer

Dana Brown

  • what type of return could the Astros get if they pick up half of Christian Walker's salary, and what type of return for Jake Meyers if he is available?

Steve Adams

  • Picking up half of Walker's contract still means he'd cost $20MM over two years, which is more than I think he'd get in free agency right now. I don't think they can move him if they're only eating half the deal (and, if they did find a taker at that price point, there'd be zero return)Meyers is cheap with a solid to good glove in CF, an average-ish bat and above-average baserunning contributions. He's two years from free agency. I don't think he's going to command a massive haul, but I think they could flip him for a back-end option in the rotation that's more or less ready right now.

Blue Jays

  • Aside from Bo, who do you think are the main blue jays targets this offseason (trade or free-agent)?

Steve Adams

  • I fully expect the Blue Jays to be in on basically every prominent free agent, including Kyle Tucker. They can accommodate him on the payroll. They don't have a set option in right field. (Barger can play 3B.) They just came two outs away from a World Series and have a bunch of extra revenue as a result.They also have multiple rotation vacancies -- and they were gifted a playoff-caliber starter when Shane Bieber exercised a player option that was somewhere around 10% of his market value (net $12MM for him). Still can't believe that.

    They're flush with cash, vibes are good, fan support through the roof. Free agents will want to go there after the WS appearance. No one's off the table.

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Front Office Originals MLBTR Chats

5 comments

Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

By Mark Polishuk | November 7, 2025 at 2:30pm CDT

The 119-loss Rockies were one of the worst teams in baseball history.  Can a front office shakeup (and an unexpected choice as the new baseball operations head) get the organization pointed in the right direction?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Kris Bryant, 1B/OF: $78MM through 2028
  • Ezequiel Tovar, SS: $56.5MM through 2030 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $23MM club option for 2031)
  • Kyle Freeland, SP: $16MM through 2026 (deal contains conditional player option for 2027)
  • Antonio Senzatela, SP/RP: $12MM through 2026 ($14MM club option for 2027)

Option Decisions

  • Thairo Estrada, 2B: Rockies declined their end of $7MM mutual option for 2026 (Estrada received $750K buyout, then elected free agency after being outrighted off 40-man roster)
  • Kyle Farmer, IF: Rockies declined their end of $4MM mutual option for 2026 (Farmer received $750K buyout)

2026 financial commitments: $59MM
Total future commitments: $162.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Jimmy Herget (4.069): $1.5MM
  • Mickey Moniak (4.027): $4.2MM
  • Ryan Feltner (3.071): $2.3MM
  • Tyler Freeman (3.046): $1.8MM
  • Brenton Doyle (2.161): $3.2MM

Free Agents

  • Estrada, Farmer, German Marquez, Orlando Arcia, Lucas Gilbreath

The fact that Colorado is the last Offseason Outlook entry published (even after the World Series teams) speaks to the unusual length of the team's front office search.  The free agent market opened yesterday, and the leaderless baseball operations department has already been making some transactions since the World Series officially ended, though the decisions to decline mutual options on Thairo Estrada and Kyle Farmer were both routine and expected.

The Rockies' struggles are usually attributed to owner Dick Monfort's extreme loyalty to longtime employees, resulting in an organization that has fallen behind the curve in fresh ideas and in most aspects of modern roster construction.  Three straight 100-loss seasons and a gruesome 43-119 record in 2025 was enough to make even the notoriously insular Monfort realize that changes needed to be made.  Manager Bud Black was fired back in May, and GM Bill Schmidt was let go at season's end.

This winter marked the first time that Monfort had actually done a formal external search for a head of baseball operations.  Dan O'Dowd was already the general manager when the Monfort brothers bought the team in 2005.  O'Dowd continued in the job until 2014, and successors Jeff Bridich and Schmidt were internal promotions.

Walker Monfort's new role as Colorado's executive VP led to some inevitable accusations of nepotism, though reports indicate that the younger Monfort (Dick's son) has been pushing for the Rox to adopt a new approach.  The impact could be seen in Paul DePodesta's hiring as president of baseball operations, plus the fact that the other known candidates for the top job in baseball ops -- Guardians assistant GM Matt Forman, Diamondbacks assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye, Royals assistant GM Scott Sharp, and former Astros general manager James Click -- had no prior ties to Colorado's organization.

In classic Rockies fashion, however, the front office search wasn't exactly routine.  It seemed like Forman and Sawdaye were the finalists, except reports then emerged that the two were out of the running, with Sawdaye reportedly turning down a job offer and Forman taking himself out of the process.  Former Rockies reliever Adam Ottavino unexpectedly then emerged as a known candidate, throwing another curveball into the process that was ultimately ended when yesterday's news broke about DePodesta's hiring.

DePodesta has two decades of MLB front office experience with five different teams, including a two-year (2004-05) run as the Dodgers' general manager and five years working as Billy Beane's chief lieutenant with the Moneyball-era Athletics.  It's the kind of distinguished resume that most Colorado fans were probably hoping to see from the Rockies' hire....except for the oddity of DePodesta spending the last decade working outside of baseball as the Cleveland Browns' chief strategy officer.

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2025-26 Offseason Outlook Colorado Rockies Front Office Originals

26 comments

Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

By Darragh McDonald | November 7, 2025 at 9:55am CDT

MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

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MLB Mailbag: Freddy Peralta, Sonny Gray, Bichette, Tucker, Cubs

By Tim Dierkes | November 4, 2025 at 11:58pm CDT

MLBTR's annual Top 50 Free Agents list comes out Thursday evening!  We'll also be launching our free agent prediction contest at that time.

This week's subscriber mailbag covers possible Freddy Peralta and Sonny Gray trades, how the 2026-27 lockout might affect free agency this winter, where Bo Bichette will sign if not Toronto, the chances the Dodgers land Kyle Tucker, and how the Cubs will approach the loss of Tucker as well as a rotation upgrade.

Morris asks:

What would a realistic trade with Milwaukee for Freddy Peralta look like for the Braves? While I would love to see Cease in a Braves' uni, I think he may get a much better deal elsewhere with Atlanta's seeming insistence on being "logical" with every free agent (cue Friedman's famous quote). Milwaukee has a penchant for really getting something extra out of pitchers, and Peralta is a finished product who will be too expensive for them to keep much longer. Would something like Bryce Elder (Milwaukee could absolutely figure out how to make him better), a top-15 pitching prospect, and a top-30 position-player-prospect get the deal done?

At one point in our free agent deliberations, we had Dylan Cease signing a three-year, $93MM deal with two opt-outs.  We were having a bit of a hard time giving Cease the long-term contract he's likely seeking, mostly because of his 4.55 ERA.  For the most part, we've gotten past those reservations and expect Cease to sign for perhaps seven years, as Aaron Nola did coming off a 4.46 regular season mark.

It should be noted that the Braves were competitive in the bidding for Nola, so we can't completely rule out Alex Anthopoulos going long for the Georgia-native Cease.  But it's also true that in eight years atop the Braves' front office, Anthopoulos' biggest free agent deal in both years and dollars was Marcell Ozuna's four-year, $65MM pact in February 2021.  I agree that Cease feels unlikely in Atlanta.

On September 30th, Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote, "The Braves could use another reliable veteran — someone in the mold of Charlie Morton as a pitcher who can provide steadiness, leadership and consistent innings."  The thinking is that with Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Spencer Strider locked in, the Braves need reliability more than they need a front of the rotation guy.  In my Top 50 picks, I've got the Braves signing Chris Bassitt.  I also find the idea of a paid-down Sonny Gray acquisition to be plausible.

But there's nothing that precludes Anthopoulos from thinking bigger and renting Peralta for a year, regardless of whether they can eventually extend him.

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Front Office Originals Tim Dierkes' MLB Mailbag

23 comments

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

By Darragh McDonald | November 3, 2025 at 8:05pm CDT

The Dodgers have won back-to-back World Series. They aren't losing any major contributors to free agency, so they'll go into the winter with a really strong roster and the ability to bolster it further.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH: $560MM through 2033 ($68MM of salary deferred annually)
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP: $260MM through 2035 (deal includes multiple opt-out chances, beginning after 2029 or any season in which he is traded)
  • Mookie Betts, SS: $235MM through 2032 (includes $40MM of signing bonus still to be paid out; $10MM of salary deferred annually in 2026-27, $11MM annually 2028-32)
  • Blake Snell, LHP: $104MM through 2029 ($13.2MM of salary deferred annually; deal includes conditional club option for 2030)
  • Will Smith, C: $83.45MM through 2033 ($5MM of salary is deferred annually)
  • Tyler Glasnow, RHP: $81.5625MM through 2028 (2028 is either $21.5625MM player option or $30MM club option)
  • Tanner Scott, LHP: $56MM through 2028 (includes $15MM of signing bonus still to be paid out; $5.25MM of salary deferred annually; deal includes 2029 conditional option)
  • Freddie Freeman, 1B: $54MM through 2027 ($12MM of salary deferred annually)
  • Tommy Edman, IF/OF: $52MM through 2029 (includes $3MM buyout on $13MM club option for 2030; $6.25MM of salary deferred annually)
  • Teoscar Hernández, OF: $33MM through 2027 (includes $6.5MM buyout on $15MM club option; deal also includes conditional 2029 option; $8MM of salary deferred annually)
  • Blake Treinen, RHP: $13.5MM through 2026 (includes $2.5MM of signing bonus still to be paid out)
  • Hyeseong Kim, IF/OF: $9MM through 2027 (including $1.5MM buyout of $10MM two-year club option for 2028-29)

Other Financial Commitments

  • Owe $4MM buyout to released IF/OF Chris Taylor

Option Decisions

  • Team has $10MM club option on 3B Max Muncy with no buyout
  • Team has $3.65MM club option on LHP Alex Vesia with $50K buyout (Vesia would remain controllable via arbitration even if option is declined)

2026 guarantees (assuming both options are picked up): $283.15MM ($127.7MM deferred)
Total future commitments: $1.559 billion ($792.55MM deferred)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Brusdar Graterol (5.167): $2.8MM
  • Tony Gonsolin (5.152): $5.4MM
  • Evan Phillips (5.136): $6.1MM
  • Alex Vesia (5.078): $4.1MM (Dodgers hold a $3.65MM club option with a $50K buyout)
  • Anthony Banda (4.135): $1.7MM
  • Brock Stewart (4.093): $1.4MM
  • Ben Rortvedt (3.135): $1.3MM
  • Michael Grove (3.031): $800K
  • Alex Call (2.161): $1.5MM

Non-tender candidates: Graterol, Gonsolin, Phillips, Banda, Stewart, Rortvedt, Grove

Free Agents

  • Clayton Kershaw (retiring), Michael Conforto, Kirby Yates, Enrique Hernández, Miguel Rojas, Michael Kopech

The Dodgers have a strong willingness to bet on talent and not worry so much about injury concerns. That is partly due to their almost unlimited budget, which allows them to take risks other clubs may not be able to afford. It's also because the lineup is so good that they are almost guaranteed to make the playoffs each year, which gives them the wiggle room to let their players get healthy as opposed to rushing them back during the regular season.

This has led to some inconsistency in how things end up when October rolls around. In 2023, they were so banged up that they were swept out of the ALDS by the Diamondbacks. In 2024, the Dodgers had just enough of a rotation to win the title. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler were the three traditional starters as the club relied heavily on the bullpen. In 2025, that flipped. The bullpen had been stripped down by injuries but the rotation had Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell and Shohei Ohtani all healthy. Manager Dave Roberts tried to avoid his traditional relievers as much as possible. He often allowed his starters to pitch deep into games. In Game Seven of the World Series, he used all four of Ohtani, Glasnow, Snell and Yamamoto.

Going into 2026, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Dodgers target more pitching, but the rotation is actually in good shape. The four starters they were using in this year's playoffs are all healthy and under contract. Roki Sasaki wound up in the bullpen due to some shoulder trouble but he could be stretched back out next year. Guys like Emmet Sheehan, Jack Dreyer, Ben Casparius, Landon Knack, Bobby Miller and Justin Wrobleski worked both as starters and relievers in 2025 and could be in the mix for starts again next year. Each of Kyle Hurt, River Ryan and Gavin Stone spent 2025 recovering from surgery but should be factors next year. Top prospect Jackson Ferris now has 33 Double-A games under his belt and should be in Triple-A next year.

Nick Frasso finished 2025 hurt and his current status isn't clear. Tony Gonsolin will likely be non-tendered since he underwent internal brace surgery and will miss at least the first half of 2026, though the Dodgers could afford to pay him and hope for a late-season return if they wanted to. Michael Grove missed all of 2025 due to shoulder surgery and could also be non-tendered, though he can still be controlled for three more seasons.

However it plays out, it's an impressive collection of talent, even with Clayton Kershaw retiring. The club has been very active in adding pitching in recent offseasons. After their aforementioned rough ending in 2023, they added Ohtani. However, he wasn't an immediate upgrade to the staff since he was recovering from surgery at the time, so they also added Glasnow and Yamamoto. Coming into this year, they signed Snell.

With the depth suddenly looking overwhelming, the Dodgers may not be as aggressive on the free agent starting pitching market. In fact, there are so many names on the chart that they could probably trade some away, though they could also opt to hold and just have lots of depth on hand for the inevitable injuries that will arise.

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2025-26 Offseason Outlook Front Office Originals Los Angeles Dodgers

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