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The Best Fits For A Ketel Marte Trade

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Star Diamondbacks infielder Ketel Marte has dominated trade rumblings over the past month-plus. Despite frequently stating that he doesn't consider a trade likely, general manager Mike Hazen has been hammered by calls from opposing teams hoping to pry the All-Star slugger away from Arizona.

Marte is enough of a known commodity that we needn't run through an extensive breakdown of his résumé here, but it bears spelling out some of the basics. The three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger winner has steadily produced anywhere from above-average to elite offense dating back to 2018. He's a switch-hitter who touts a massive .283/.368/.519 slash (140 wRC+) over the past three seasons. Marte is a superstar talent who's signed to a contract more commensurate with a freshly extended arbitration player. He's owed $102.5MM over the next six seasons, with the final year of that being an $11.5MM player option. He'll be paid $15MM in 2026, $12MM in 2027, $20MM in 2028 and $22MM in 2029-30.

Arizona has reportedly been seeking multiple major league-ready starting pitchers to even consider parting with Marte. Specifically, they're targeting controllable arms who can be long-term cogs in the starting staff. They reportedly talked with the Rays about a deal including both Ryan Pepiot and Shane Baz before the latter was traded to Baltimore, for instance.

Hazen has been relatively open about listening to offers and his reluctance to actually move Marte throughout the winter. He indicated last week that one way or another, he'd like to wrap up this situation soon. That was understandably viewed by many as something of a call for best and final offers.

With resolution on the situation seemingly nigh, one way or another, it feels worth running through the league to find the best fits for Marte, some viable dark-horse spots, and also lay out the clubs that don't feel like they'll be much of a factor at all. Let's run through it all.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Happy 2026!
  • Yeah, that's going to feel weird for awhile.
  • I'll get going at 3pm CT today, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time, as always. Hope the holidays have treated everyone well thus far!
  • Hello all! Sorry for the delay
  • Lets get underway!

Bo Knows Okamoto

  • Am I now the odd man out in Toronto?

Steve Adams

  • It's more crowded, but  no, I don't take the Okamoto signing as any kind of surefire sign he's gone, no. They still have Ernie Clement atop their depth chart at second base, and Clement is at best a glove-first, league-average hitter and more likely a glove-first utility player.There's plenty of space to get both Bichette and Okamoto near-regular playing time, especially since Okamoto could spend some time at first and/or DH, while Bichette  could play some SS if Gimenez goes down with any sort of injury.

Chaim Bloom

  • Im resigned to the fact that Ill need to absorb another team's bad contract in order to move Nolan Arenado.  As long as the player attached to said contract is (A) playable in my outfield or (B) tradable, Im good with that. Right now I have the Angels and Jorge Soler is a good fit, and I think the Phillies might be willing to move Alec Bohm and let Nolan  play third if I take Nick Castellanos.  Both teams want me to throw in 5-10 million dollars because they know I'm slightly more desperate that they are...

Steve Adams

  • I just don't think it makes sense for the Cardinals to take back another pricey veteran. Part of the thinking in dumping Arenado is opening time for younger players. Castellanos is every bit as untradeable. I suppose they could just release the player they take back.I think the Cardinals will eventually trade Arenado by just paying like $30MM+ of what's left on the contract, though.

Dave

  • Would Tucker sign with LAD for 5 years $250 million with three opt out years?

Steve Adams

  • The Dodgers are in the top penalty bracket for the luxury tax already, and that setup would cost them $55MM in taxes annually, plus Tucker's salary. If we distribute the 250 evenly over five years, it's $105MM per year. Even for the Dodgers, that seems steep

Guest

  • Just letting you know I’m accessing this while beta testing the app.  App looks great!

Steve Adams

  • Love it! Thanks for helping out!

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Anthony Franco

  • Good afternoon, hope you've all had a good holiday season!
  • Lots in the queue today, let's get rolling

Natitude Dude

  • Is M Gore getting dealt this off-season? If so, what kind of return can be expected after the Baz deal?

Anthony Franco

  • I still think he'll get moved this offseason. Would expect a better headliner than Tampa Bay got in the Baz trade and a slightly stronger package overall. Think Gore's more valuable despite Baz have the extra year of arbitration control

KerryFam4

  • We’ve now had two Japanese players sign short term deals with opt-outs at lower than expected rates.  Do you think that will impact the remaining unsigned Japanese player(s)?  Should we read anything from that into the markets for Tucker, Bichette, Bregman, Valdez, etc?

Anthony Franco

  • Not reading a whole lot into it. Seems more that MLB teams didn't think Murakami or Imai are particularly good
  • If all the top free agents are still unsigned two or three weeks from now, I'd come more around to the idea that of shorter-term contracts with outs for them

gavin

  • should the padres trade pivetta to the cubs/mets/yankees for prospects and sign basset or giolito?

Anthony Franco

  • I think it's too cute. Pivetta's just much better than those guys and the rotation is pretty weak beyond the top three. I understand the concern about potentially losing Pivetta and King next offseason, but the Padres are almost always operating in some kind of chaos like that because they overpaid Bogaerts, Darvish and Cronenworth

Guest

  • In your opinion, which outlet is the best for prospect coverage? Is there one you guys typically use?

Anthony Franco

  • Baseball America's the gold standard for me, but there's obviously a lot of good work out there and value in getting different outlets' opinions on players. We'll reference BA, FanGraphs, Kiley McDaniel's work at ESPN, Keith Law at The Athletic and MLB Pipeline

Arise, Sir Loin of Beef

  • Are there any upper tier OFs available in a trade this year?

Anthony Franco

  • It's not great, especially if Boston holds everybody. Donovan could kind of fit that description even though he's more impactful at second base and/or bouncing around the infield. We've seen that kind of ceiling from Robert and Nootbaar before but not recently
  • I think it's more likely to come available at the deadline. Red Sox are pretty well positioned on the pitching staff now but injuries could change that by the summer. If Cleveland struggles, Kwan should go in July. Maybe Minnesota reevaluates on Buxton and their top starters at that point if their half-in hope of competing this year blows up

A's or Marlins?

  • Between the A's and Marlins, which team do you believe is in a stronger position to compete for a wild card spot this season?

Anthony Franco

  • I'd take Miami's roster right now but that probably flips if the A's add a mid-rotation caliber starter. Still think they're both long shots but more realistic dark horses than they've been entering any of the past couple seasons

Confused

  • Why is Brendan Donovan so highly-sought after? Minimal power and he doesn’t have the .300 batting average to offset that?

Anthony Franco

  • Almost no one hits .300 anymore. There were seven qualified hitters who have done that in each of the past two seasons. Donovan's a reliable bet to hit .280 with an OBP above .350. Not huge power but enough for double-digit homers and 30 doubles
  • It's really tough to find players who do that while playing up the middle. The league average second baseman last year hit .243/.310/.371

Chris

  • Who is one player you think could possibly be traded this offseason who has not been speculated in trade discussions?

Anthony Franco

  • Still think the Giants should trade Robbie Ray to clear $25M next year for a move at second base or in right field

Giacomo Puccini

  • Who’s the best active player not to win an MVP?

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The Best Fits For Tatsuya Imai

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Decision time nears for Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai. He needs to finalize a contract with an MLB team by Friday at 4:00 pm Central if he's to make the move stateside this year. There's no indication that he's considering sticking with the Seibu Lions, meaning an agreement should be imminent. While there's a little over 48 hours to make the deal official, Imai must agree to terms with enough margin to complete a standard physical.

The 27-year-old (28 in May) is conducting in-person meetings with interested teams in Los Angeles this week. The 5’11” righty has been one of Japan’s best pitchers over the past two seasons. He’s coming off a 1.92 ERA showing with 178 strikeouts across 163 2/3 innings. Imai has an NPB-best 27% strikeout rate since the start of 2024. He sits in the mid-90s with a promising slider. Command was an issue earlier in his career, but his strike-throwing has progressed as he has gained experience. This past season’s 7% walk rate was a personal low and better than the MLB average.

Whichever team that signs Imai will owe a release fee to the Lions. That’s proportional to the contract value: 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of all further spending. Imai isn't expected to come close to the $325MM deal that Yoshinobu Yamamoto commanded two offseasons ago. He's a few years older and simply not as good. Yet it's generally believed that he'll command a nine-figure guarantee, perhaps into the $150MM range, from a team that feels he's a mid-rotation arm.

Which clubs are best positioned to make that investment? Salary projections are courtesy of RosterResource.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Final Front Office chat of 2025! Hope the holiday season has been treating everyone well. As always, feel free to ask a question about any of the remaining free agents, possible trade scenarios, team outlooks and whatever other Hot Stove-related topics (or, frankly, other topics!) are on your mind!I'll get going at about 1:30pm CT. Looking forward to i!
  • Let's get underway!

Drake

  • What are your thoughts on the Soderstrom extension? I like it overall and hopeful the A’s can get at least one more of their core locked up too

Steve Adams

  • I'm a big Soderstrom backer, so for me, getting the deal done and buying out at least three free agent years for a sub-100 guarantee is a move well worth making. That's not to say Soderstrom sold himself short. A year ago, he looked like a fringe contributor, and now he's signed the eighth-largest extension of any player ever for his service class. Most of the guys ahead of him (Tatis, Witt, Posey, Trout, Yordan, Bregman) were already superstars when they put pen to paper.It's a good move all around. Soderstrom is definitely a guy I'd look to build around, particularly with how well he took to LF.

jrizz1e

  • biggest player traded between now and start of spring training?

Steve Adams

  • I don't know if Brendan Donovan counts as a "big-name" player among most MLB fans, but he's a big name for front offices and I think it's far likelier than not that he ends up traded.

Ben Cherrington

  • Can either ROH or Horowitz play 3B ? Meintakwicz(sp?) did this on the steel city a few years back.

Steve Adams

  • Doug Mientkiewicz played 33 games (30 starts) at 3B for the Pirates in the late 2000s and, as one would expect for a 34-year-old first baseman making that move for the first time, graded out terribly.
  • The Jays gave Horwitz 250ish innings at 2B, and he didn't fare all that well there. O'Hearn isn't playing 3B.
  • I think you'll just see the two split time at DH and 1B. O'Hearn could see some OF time, depending on injuries elsewhere on the roster.

JL

  • If the Os are serious about a TOR arm, is Eflin taking Kremers place in the rotation?  What is Dean Kremers trade value?

Steve Adams

  • They wouldn't move on from Kremer even if they add an Imai, Valdez, Suarez, etc.Kyle Bradish only pitched 54 innings between the minors and MLB last year. Eflin himself was under 90 IP. Injuries are an inevitability. We don't even firmly know when Eflin will be healthy enough to take the mound in a big league game.Bringing him back at $10MM was a relatively reasonably priced depth move with a decent bit of upside. Any big league team is going to need far more than five starters to get through a season. The O's will probably have 7-8 guys start 10+ games next season. The rotation will sort itself out.

Foley

  • As good as Logan Gilbert is the Mariners should consider trading him, realistically they won’t have the money to sign him and with two years of control they should get a haul that could help now and later

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The Giants Should Chase Upside On The Trade Market

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The Giants have been fairly quiet through the offseason's first two months. They've added back-end starter Adrian Houser on a two-year, $22MM deal with a club option. Their only other moves have been cheap fliers on rehabbing relievers Jason Foley and Sam Hentges.

While technically in line with their offseason plan to focus on pitching, their moves to date aren't the type that'll move the needle. Chairman Greg Johnson and general manager Zack Minasian have downplayed the chance of making a long-term investment on the pitching staff. There are still a handful of players on the open market who fit on paper. Any of Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez or Zac Gallen would upgrade the rotation. Top free agent hitters Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger and Bo Bichette happen to fit at their respective biggest problem areas on the position player side (right field and second base, respectively).

It's possible ownership doesn't want to meet the asking prices necessary for anyone in that group. The Giants project for a $176MM payroll, as calculated by RosterResource. That's narrowly above their $173MM Opening Day mark from 2025. That doesn't include the $17MM payment they owe to Blake Snell on January 15, as they agreed to defer the signing bonus on his contract for the '24 season.

They're also on the hook for one of the most expensive managerial situations in MLB. They owe fired skipper Bob Melvin a $4MM salary. They paid a $3MM buyout to the University of Tennessee to get Tony Vitello out of his contract. Vitello is reportedly set for a $3.5MM salary, meaning they're committing $10.5MM to the position for the first season.

Even with an estimated $40MM until they hit the luxury tax threshold, the budget could be tight for a marquee free agent. However, that doesn't mean the offseason needs to be exclusively depth acquisitions. The Giants have a few ways to chase the extra wins needed to push them from their annual .500 finish to more firmly in the Wild Card picture.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good morning, and happy holidays to all! I'll get going a bit earlier than usual today, 11am CT. Feel free to start sending in questions ahead of time, as always.
  • Good morning! Let's get underway

Guarded Indian

  • Is Fairchild Cleveland's answer for the RH hitting OF help or do they actually spend on someone else?  If Clase and Ortiz come off the payroll could they afford Bader?  I don't want Hays (injured) or Andujar (not great one defense).

Steve Adams

  • He's just a minor league depth add -- not any kind of answer. Fairchild is only a slightly above-average hitter in his career versus LHP.Hays, Andujar, Randal Grichuk and Rob Refsnyder are all out there as RHH outfielders to join the outfield mix there. I think any of the bunch make sense as a reasonable addition. None will cost too much

Ross the Boss

  • What could I get back for Berrios if I toss in $36mil in cash in a trade?  He had a down year, but a innings eating #4/5 at $10mil/season is still a very valuable commodity.  Ponce is now my #5, it would be essentially no more money for ownership, and I could recoup something of value for Jose.

Steve Adams

  • It might be reasonable to think Berrios is worth $10MM annually, but I doubt he'd get that over three years in free agency this winter. Most teams would be looking at him for one or two years. I don't think paying him down to 3/30 is enough to get anything of value.Three of four seasons with a sub-20 K%. Walk rate jumped to 8% this past year (still solid but much higher than his 6.3% over the four preceding seasons). Career-low four-seam and sinker velos. Tons of home runs. Poor finish from July onward.I think you're overvaluing Berrios.

Anthony

  • which under the radar FA Pitcher is the best buy low high rewards candidate?  1year / $5 - 10million.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Anthony Franco

  • Hey everyone, hope you've had a good week!
  • Will need to keep this one right around an hour because Steve's not feeling well and this afternoon has been crazy. Let's get rolling

Bucs fan

  • Please evaluate the trade from the Pirates perspective

Ben Cherrington

  • WAIT!  WAS THAT REALLY ME?

Anthony Franco

  • Might as well start with thoughts on the trades since they're top of mind
  • I really like the three-team deal for everyone involved. Probably most favorable for it on Pittsburgh's end though. Lowe's a massive offensive upgrade and I'm still very much in on Montgomery even though this year was a disappointment
  • There's probably only a 20% chance that Montgomery throws enough strikes to click to his full potential, but if he does, it's top 10 reliever in MLB type stuff. As a developmental second piece, absolutely in on that
  • Mangum's a fine extra outfielder. Never really been in on him as a prospect but he's already carved out a better pro career than I assumed he'd have based on the limited physical tools
  • I like Burrows quite a bit but they needed to trade a starter for offense and he was always the one who offered the best blend of real trade value without the huge ceiling of Ashcraft, Jones, Chandler etc.
  • The Astros needed a cheap mid-rotation arm and got it without giving up Meyers or Cam Smith. I'm lowest on it from the Rays perspective relatively speaking, but they'll be able to get an immediate look at Melton and must love Brito, since he reportedly came up when they were kicking around Baz with Houston. I think it works for all involved

MattStats5

  • Orioles need arms, and Baz is a solid pick up. Seems like an overpay to me, though. Your thoughts?

Anthony Franco

  • Yeah, this one I just prefer from Tampa Bay's end. I get the appeal with three years of control over Baz but the inconsistency, middling command, and injury history give me enough pause that I would not have gone as far as Baltimore did
  • Baltimore needed a starter who has upper mid-rotation ceiling and Baz provides that. I don't know what the ask would have been with Miami on Cabrera or if Gore was feasible given the organizational history, but I'd rather have either of those pitchers than Baz

Mariners

  • Do you think this happened because Pittsburgh was told they were out on either Marte or Donovan?

Anthony Franco

  • They could still make either of those guys work by using Lowe at DH or kicking Donovan around the diamond, but I never felt like Pittsburgh was the top landing spot for either one
  • You've got the intra-division complications with STL. I still remain skeptical that the D-Backs are trading Marte despite all the smoke and even if they do, that's a pretty big contract by Pirates standards to take on while giving up a ton of young pitching talent

Philly A's

  • The Phillies trading Strahm is confusing, $7.5m isnt really that much of a salary dump.

Anthony Franco

  • Agreed. Felt like they were determined to trade one of the lefty reliever (ideally him) for reasons that were never entirely clear to me
  • The velocity has trended down so maybe they just think he's cooked, but like you mentioned, the $7.5M salary is fine. Bowlan was pretty good this year and maybe they build him back into a swing role?

Al

  • How likely is it that Jordan Walker will be traded?

Anthony Franco

  • I don't see the point of doing it this winter, value is way down. I'd give him one more shot

Bob T.

  • It appears that the Angels are following the same script as the last ten plus years. They are still in the same boat as before the Winter Meetings. They still need a CF, 2B, 3B another starter or more and a closer.
    will Arte loosen the purse strings or is this the team he intends to field. I can see 100 losses this season. Thoughts?

Anthony Franco

  • They've got enough payroll space even relative to last season that I think they'll at least come away with a third baseman and another leverage reliever
  • That's still not enough but I'll say that within those restrictions, I'm a little more bullish on the Rodriguez, Manoah and Grissom dice rolls than I have been on their buy-low candidates of the previous few years

Bill

  • All of the Braves projected needs seem  to have been addressed except for a starter, whom do you think is likely in the remaining group?

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MLB Mailbag: Tucker, Rays, Mariners, Tigers, Dustin May

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This week's mailbag gets into whether Kyle Tucker will sign a shorter-term deal, options for the Rays at catcher, the trade value of controllable Mariners starters, the Tigers' offseason thus far, Dustin May's potential impact with the Cardinals, and much more.

Dave asks:

At this point do you think Kyle Tucker will take a high AAV deal — example: 5 years $250 million with opt outs after years 2 and 4?

I'm writing this on December 17th, and I don't think we're at that point with Tucker.  It's true that long-term free agent deals usually happen in December.  The last free agent deal of 8+ years that didn't happen in December was Bryce Harper in March 2019, with his 13-year deal coming a few weeks after Manny Machado's ten-year pact.

Eric Hosmer got an eight-year deal in February 2018, and Prince Fielder signed for nine years in January 2012.

That's about it, though, so if we get to the new year without a Tucker deal, the odds start shifting toward a shorter term.

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The Best Fits For Munetaka Murakami

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Munetaka Murakami will make his decision within the next five days. Japan's premier slugger is expected to sign with an MLB team after being posted by the Yakult Swallows. The 45-day process began on November 8, meaning Murakami has until December 22 to put pen to paper.

Murakami's camp has played things very close to the vest. While they've undoubtedly spent the past month speaking with teams, there hasn't been any reporting about which clubs are involved. It's inherently more difficult from the outside to project the market for players without any major league track record. A lot depends on individual teams' scouting evaluations.

That's particularly true in Murakami's case. Scouts are unanimous in praising his monster power potential. The lefty hitter drilled 56 home runs in his age-22 season a few years back. That's an outlier but he has another four seasons with between 31 and 39 longballs. That doesn't include this year, in which oblique injuries limited him to 69 games. Murakami connected on 24 homers while hitting .286/.392/.659 across 263 plate appearances -- which would have put him on a 55-60 homer pace over a full season. His exit velocities are off the charts. There's a chance he's in the Kyle Schwarber or Shohei Ohtani tier in terms of left-handed raw power.

As is often the case, the bigger question is whether he'll make enough contact to be an impact bat in MLB. Murakami has fanned a near-26% rate in his NPB career. That was up to 28.6% this year and closer to 30% in his last full season in 2024. Hitters can thrive while striking out that often -- Schwarber has gone down on strikes at a 28.8% rate over the last four years -- but Murakami's strikeout rate seems likely to climb against big league competition.

The average pitcher quality and velocity is higher in MLB than it is at the NPB level. Should Murakami be expected to strike out more than 30% of the time in the majors? Do teams expect him to punch out more than a third of the time? Scouts could have differing evaluations on Murakami's pure hitting ability.

There's little doubt that the bat needs to drive the profile. Listed at 6'2" and 213 pounds, Murakami isn't viewed as an especially rangy third baseman. He's likely to end up at first base before the end of his contract. Some teams might project him to the position on day one. Others could feel he'd be a passable third baseman in the short term, but his defense isn't likely to improve with age.

Murakami turns 26 in February. He's younger than essentially any top-tier domestic free agent, who'd need to play six full seasons in the big leagues before they can hit the market. This is a chance to add a potential prime-age superstar, but there's also massive downside given the swing-and-miss and defensive questions. It's likely that whatever deal he signs will come with one or more opt-out chances that allow Murakami to get back to free agency a few years from now if he has proven he can hit MLB pitching.

MLBTR predicted an eight-year, $180MM deal in ranking him the offseason's #4 free agent. That's admittedly without a huge amount of confidence given the challenges of projecting this profile. Let's take a look at which teams are best positioned to make this move.

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