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Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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The Astros missed the postseason for the first time in a decade, and now they'll enter the offseason in the unfamiliar position of underdogs in the AL West.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • None

Total 2026 commitments: $155.85MM
Total future commitments: $407.35MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-Tender Candidates: Dubon, Garcia, Urias, De Los Santos, McCormick, Sanchez, Trammell

Free Agents

The Astros finished the season with an 87-75 record and missed out on the final AL Wild Card spot after losing the season series tiebreaker to the Tigers. As far as seasons that don't end in a postseason berth go, Houston's year certainly could've been worse. Yet there's plenty of work for GM Dana Brown and the rest of the front office to do this winter.

The elephant in the room is the impending departure of southpaw Framber Valdez. It's a safe bet that he will be pitching elsewhere come Opening Day, as Houston has rarely made a full-scale effort to retain their free agents over the years. Alex Bregman walked in free agency last winter, and Kyle Tucker was traded before his final year under team control so that he wouldn't do the same. Gerrit Cole previously left for New York after reaching free agency after the 2019 season. Justin Verlander and Carlos Correa both signed elsewhere on two separate occasions, though both did return to Houston in trades after their respective departures.

Jose Altuve is the only one of the club's stars they've managed to keep in town consistently, and comments from Brown haven't offered much reason to expect Valdez's free agency to reverse that trend. Brown said that he expected to have "some conversations" with Valdez's camp, but otherwise largely focused on the emergence of Hunter Brown as a legitimate ace and the club's other internal options when asked about the possibility of a reunion. Valdez is sure to be well outside the club's typical comfort zone even as he enters free agency marketing his age-32 season, and Brown has suggested that the club could look to the trade market in any efforts to bolster its rotation.

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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers may consider trading a longtime rotation stalwart this winter but would be justified mostly standing pat coming off an MLB-best 97 wins.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, DH: $84.5MM through 2028 ($4MM deferred annually; includes buyout of '29 club option)
  • Jackson Chourio, OF: $74MM through 2031, with club options on 2032 and '33
  • Aaron Ashby, RP: $14MM through 2027, with club options on 2028 and '29

Option Decisions

2026 guaranteed contracts: $54.5MM
Total future commitments: $188.5MM through 2031

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidate: Bauers

Free Agents

With 97 wins, the Brewers were the best regular season team in baseball this year.  Roughly a third of the way through the season, the team's record sat at 25-28 after a May 24th loss to the Pirates.  They were 6.5 games back in the NL Central.  The Brewers were a third-place club with a 10% shot at making the playoffs.  That's when they emerged as the best team in baseball, as Milwaukee played .661 ball from that point forward, even including a .500 September.  By the end of July, the Brewers had an NL Central lead they would never relinquish, earning them a first-round playoff bye.

Powered by Andrew Vaughn, Jackson Chourio, and William Contreras on offense and an unconventional pitching attack led by Jacob Misiorowski, the Brewers and Pat Murphy took down the Cubs and former manager Craig Counsell in a five-game NLDS.

2025 marked the Brewers' seventh playoff appearance in eight years, and their first series win since the impressive run began in 2018.  Unfortunately, the Brewers proved no match for the Dodgers in this year's NLCS, with L.A. powered by dominant starting pitching.

The Brewers have had a remarkable run of success on payrolls that have typically landed in the bottom third of MLB.  David Stearns' seven-year run heading up the front office ended in 2022, with Matt Arnold taking over as GM.  The club has maintained its excellence under Arnold.  The Brewers' front office is the envy of owners everywhere, prompting Mark Attanasio to promote Arnold to president of baseball operations last week.  Upon getting the promotion, Arnold made sure to thank "the guys that I work with every single day" - Matt Kleine, Karl Mueller, Will Hudgins, and Matt Klentak.  It would not be a surprise to see a few of those assistant GMs poached to run other teams' front offices in the coming years.

As MLB.com's Adam McCalvy and Jordan Bastian explained here, longtime friends Murphy and Counsell have "have alternated positions of power over the years."  Much as the Brewers transitioned seamlessly from Stearns to Arnold, Murphy picked up where Counsell left off in winning a pair of division titles in his two years as manager.  Murphy's contract is up after 2026, and you'd have to imagine an extension is coming.

According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Brewers' year-end 40-man roster payroll ranked 23rd in baseball at $115MM.  The club has been as high as $135MM.  Regular season attendance was up 4.4% this year.  Given two additional postseason games compared to 2024, total attendance at American Family Field increased by 7.6%.  The Brewers' commitments total around $95MM at present, including an obvious $8MM club option on Freddy Peralta.  Arnold may make some trades and let his free agents go in fitting with the team's way of operating, but he shouldn't be under direct financial pressure to cut payroll.

That brings us to the linchpin of the Brewers' offseason: Peralta.  The 29-year-old righty was poached from the Mariners in the Adam Lind trade a decade ago, behind the advocacy of Kleine.  Peralta inked a team-friendly deal in February 2020.  He'll be eligible for free agency after the 2026 season.

Peralta ranks 17th among starting pitchers in WAR since 2021, and eighth in regular season starts since '23.  He posted a strong 28.2 K% this year alongside a career-best 2.70 ERA.  Perhaps he's more of a 3.50 type pitcher, but Peralta is immensely valuable as a durable #2 starter making $8MM.

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Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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The Padres won 90 games and made the playoffs for a second straight season. They came up short in a tightly-contested Wild Card Series against the Cubs. Manager Mike Shildt retired a few days later, sending them on the hunt for the sixth full-time skipper of A.J. Preller's tenure. That comes as they face the impending free agency of two of their top starters and their closer.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

2026 guarantees (assuming only Laureano and Peralta return): $154.95MM
Total future commitments (assuming only Laureano and Peralta return): $1.022 billion through 2034

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Adam, Sears

Free Agents

Every offseason in San Diego features its share of twists. This year's began within days of elimination. On October 9, The San Diego Union-Tribune reported that manager Mike Shildt and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller were expected back. Two days later, Shildt informed the team he was retiring. Subsequent reporting from The SDUT's Kevin Acee pointed to discord between Shildt and his coaching staff.

It was the third consecutive managerial stint that ended in some measure of controversy. Jayce Tingler had seemingly lost the clubhouse by the time he was fired in 2021. Preller and Bob Melvin clashed to such an extent that the Padres allowed Melvin out of his contract during the 2023-24 offseason to take the same job with the division-rival Giants. Preller is still expected back for what'll be his 12th full season leading baseball operations. This will be his fifth managerial search and he's going into the final year of his contract. Reporting from Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic pointed to some tension between Preller and CEO Erik Greupner that raises questions about whether the Padres will extend Preller or let him work on a lame duck contract.

The managerial search is well underway and could be concluded within the next few days. Acee wrote last night that they've moved to the second round of interviews while narrowing their search to a group of finalists. Albert Pujols is the only candidate known to have gotten a second interview. Bench coach Brian Esposito and pitching coach Ruben Niebla each interviewed at least once. Cubs bench coach Ryan Flaherty, a former Padres staffer who appeared to be the runner-up when the position went to Shildt two years back, has also been speculated as a candidate. Obviously, the managerial hiring will shape how much of Shildt's coaching staff returns.

It'd behoove the Padres to get their manager in place within the next week or so. They always have a lot to accomplish on the roster. This year is no exception, though most of their early option decisions are straightforward.

They'll exercise their $6.5MM option on Ramón Laureano, who was fantastic after being acquired from the Orioles at the trade deadline. They'll buy out lefty Kyle Hart and backup catcher Elias Díaz. Closer Robert Suarez will opt out of the remaining two years and $16MM on his contract, while Michael King has an easy call to decline his end of a $15MM mutual option in favor of a $3.75MM buyout.

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Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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The 2025 season was another heartbreaker for the Mariners. Thankfully, they have a lot of good things in place for the future.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Julio Rodríguez, CF: $162MM through 2034 (deal contains complicated option structure beginning after 2028)
  • Cal Raleigh, C: $94MM through 2030 (deal includes 2031 vesting option)
  • Luis Castillo, RHP: $45.5MM through 2027 (deal includes 2028 conditional club option/vesting option)
  • J.P. Crawford, SS: $11MM through 2026
  • Víctor Robles, OF: $5MM through 2026 (includes $500K buyout on $9MM club option for 2027)

Option Decisions

  • IF Jorge Polanco has $6MM player option with $750K buyout
  • Club has $7MM option for RHP Andrés Muñoz, plus two more club options for 2027-28
  • Mitch Garver, C/DH: $12MM mutual option with $1MM buyout

2026 guarantees (assuming Polanco and Garver become free agents): $76.5MM
Total future commitments: $326.25MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Thornton, Saucedo, Raley, Santos, Kowar

Free Agents

In many ways, it was a fantastic season for the Mariners. They got a historic performance from catcher Cal Raleigh. They won the American League West for the first time since 2001 and made it to the ALCS for the first time since that same season.

But the dream ended there. It seemed they were on the cusp of their first World Series appearance when they went up 2-0 on the Blue Jays in the ALCS. The Jays tied the series up 2-2 but the Mariners managed to win Game 5, putting them one victory away. Seattle lost Game 6 but had a 3-1 lead in Game 7, until George Springer's home run put the Jays over the top.

So often in recent history, the Mariners have been a strong team but not quite strong enough. In 2021, they finished two games back of a playoff spot. They made it to the playoffs in 2022 and survived the Wild Card round, before getting swept out of the ALDS in agonizing fashion. The third game went 18 innings with the Mariners unable to score, losing 1-0 to the division-rival Astros. In both 2023 and 2024, they missed the playoffs by a single game. In a sense, 2025 was a step forward, but it was yet another case of getting so close that the final blow was all the more crushing.

Though the pain is fresh for many fans, there's a lot to feel good about in the future. The division is wide open. The Angels haven't been good in years. The A's are on the rise but still have lots of question marks. The Astros and Rangers have some veteran talent but are starting to feel a bit old and creaky, with both clubs facing budget crunches. The Seattle roster, meanwhile, is loaded with talent. A few guys are set to depart via free agency but the M's have payroll space and one of the best farm systems in baseball.

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MLB Mailbag: Alonso, Skubal, Nationals

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This week's mailbag gets into Pete Alonso alternatives for the Mets, why many assume the Tigers won't sign Tarik Skubal, whether the Nationals will try to make a leap forward in 2026, and more.

Steve asks:

How long will the Mets give Boras and Pete Alonso to decide if they want to re-sign before shifting their focus to other first basemen, whether it be through a trade or signing?

The Mets have to make a series of decisions:

  • Do they want Alonso at all?  The answer would have to be yes, even accounting for being locked into some poor defense in 2026 at either first base or right field, since Alonso and Juan Soto can't both DH.  And perhaps Soto can improve his defense.
  • If yes, what's the maximum term?  Last winter, the Mets seemed to prefer three years, but there was probably an amount/opt-out combo where they would've done four years.  If David Stearns tells Boras, "There is no scenario where the Mets sign Pete for four-plus years," then perhaps both parties can have an early answer as to whether the fit is viable.
  • If Alonso and the Mets are both willing to do a three or four-year deal, where do opt-outs fit in?  These are obviously not great for the team, because if Alonso's production tanks in the course of the deal, they're stuck with him.

On October 1st, I wrote that Alonso will be seeking at least five years, and therefore the Mets should just let him walk.  I still feel that way, but if there are three or four-year scenarios, the Mets should at least entertain those early on.

On October 14th, I ran through the four different 30+ home run first basemen Stearns found in his seven-year tenure with the Brewers.  But let's look at that differently and see where the Brewers ranked in first baseman WAR while Stearns was in charge:

  • 2016: 10th
  • 2017: 6th
  • 2018: 7th
  • 2019: 14th
  • 2020: 14th
  • 2021: 27th
  • 2022: 18th

Now consider that with Alonso as the Mets' first baseman under Stearns, the team ranked 12th in 2024 and 7th this year.

The difference is that the Mets expect more certainty than the Brewers, because as Brewers GM Stearns was not given a budget that allowed for signing a $30MM-ish first baseman.

So while it's easy to say that Stearns should just go find the next Jesus Aguilar, he can't (or perhaps shouldn't) really run the risk of something like 2021, where the Brewers had some of the worst first base production in the game with Daniel Vogelbach, Keston Hiura, and Rowdy Tellez.

What are the Alonso alternatives?

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Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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A barrage of pitching injuries and some underwhelming offensive performances resulted in Atlanta's first losing record and non-playoff season since 2017.  The Braves can't rely just on better health to improve next year, as the club will at least explore upgrades at multiple roster spots.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Austin Riley, 3B: $155MM through 2029 ($20MM club option for 2030)
  • Matt Olson, 1B: $88MM through 2029 ($20MM club option for 2030)
  • Spencer Strider, SP: $69MM through 2028 (includes $5MM buyout of $22MM club option for 2029)
  • Michael Harris II, OF: $54MM through 2030 (includes $5MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2031; Braves also have $20MM club option for 2032 with $5MM buyout)
  • Sean Murphy, C: $45MM through 2028 ($15MM club option for 2029)
  • Jurickson Profar, OF: $30MM through 2027
  • Ronald Acuna Jr., OF: $27MM through 2026 (includes $10MM buyout of $17MM club option for 2027; Braves hold $17MM club option for 2028)
  • Reynaldo Lopez, SP: $22MM through 2027
  • Aaron Bummer, RP: $9.5MM through 2026
  • Joe Jimenez, RP: $9MM through 2026

Option Decisions

  • Chris Sale, SP: $18MM club option for 2026
  • Ha-Seong Kim, SS: $16MM player option for 2026
  • Ozzie Albies, 2B: $7MM club option for 2026 ($4MM buyout); Braves also hold $7MM club option for 2027
  • Pierce Johnson, RP: $7MM club option for 2026 ($250K buyout)
  • Tyler Kinley, RP: $5MM club option for 2026 ($750K buyout)

2026 financial commitments (if all options are exercised): $204.5MM
Total long-term financial commitments (if all options are exercised) = $561.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

At the time of this post's publication, the Braves still haven't settled on a new manager.  The team's hope was that Brian Snitker would return for an 11th season as manager, but Snitker will instead move into an advisory role for his 50th season in the organization.  Snitker's decade in the manager's chair included six NL East titles and the 2021 World Series championship, but this outstanding run ended on the down note of a 76-86 record in 2025.

It is hard to imagine any manager could've shepherded this year's Braves team to glory given how nearly the entire rotation was lost to the injured list.  Even with their season slipping away due to an 8-17 record in July, the Braves were one of the more active buyers (to some extent) leading up to the trade deadline just because the team was in such need of short-term rotation help.

Bryce Elder (and his 5.30 ERA) led all Atlanta pitchers with 156 1/3 innings, with Chris Sale finishing in second with only 125 2/3 frames.  Sale missed over two months due to a ribcage fracture, but naturally his club option is still a lock to be exercised.  Spencer Strider's recovery from internal brace surgery and a hamstring strain limited him to 125 1/3 innings, and he understandably didn't look nearly as dominant as he did in his All-Star 2023 season.  Reynaldo Lopez made just one start before arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder ended up sidelining him for the rest of the season.  Spencer Schwellenbach (fractured elbow) and AJ Smith-Shawver (Tommy John surgery) were each pitching well before their seasons were ended in June.  Grant Holmes' season was ended by a partially torn UCL in late July, and his status remains a question mark since Holmes is trying to rehab the injury without surgery.

Assuming no more offseason health woes, Sale, Strider, and Schwellenbach have places assured in Atlanta's rotation.  Former top prospect Hurston Waldrep pitched well in his first extended taste of MLB action and put himself in line for a starting job in 2026.  Holmes and Lopez are both tentatively penciled into the rotation for now, with the caveats of Holmes' health and the possibility that Lopez could be transitioned back into a bullpen role.  Back in September, Anthopoulos stressed that the club still views Lopez as a starter, "but what if we have a bunch of starter trades that present themselves and so on?  It would be a great problem to have."

Needless to say, the Braves are planning to bring at least one new addition into the starting mix.  The fact that Anthopoulos mentioned trading for a starter first and foremost might hint at his preferred plan, which makes sense given how Anthopoulos has traditionally shied away from big-ticket free agent signings during his front office career.  Anthopoulos has swung several creative trades over the years, and as we'll explore later, some players on the current big league roster could be trade chips just as easily as members of the Atlanta farm system.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon! And happy World Series. We'll get going at 3pm CT, but as always, feel free to submit questions ahead of time if you prefer.
  • Greetings! Let's begin

Eeyore

  • Lifelong Mariners fan here… also a big fan of Eugenio Suarez, especially what he brings to the clubhouse..  Wondering what it might take for the M’s to retain him and maybe use him at DH and 3rd.  Dreaming of an offseason where Naylor gets signed, a trade lands Brendan Donovan and Suarez is still in the fold… all with Colt Emerson getting called up at so e point.

Steve Adams

  • I don't think there's any chance they keep both Suarez and Naylor and then add someone like Donovan. Individually they're all fine fits, but Suarez is probably going to command $20MM+ annually over 2-3 years, and the Mariners aren't going to spend for a player in his mid-30s when they have Emerson waiting in the wings.Naylor reunion seems possible, particularly if they move some other pieces to make the financial aspect work (assuming ownership isn't going to green-light a major spending hike).

    Donovan fits the Mariners well, but he's versatile, cheap and good at just about everything on the diamond. He fits every contending club well. Mariners do have a better farm than a lot of (most of) the other teams who'll be looking into him, though.

walterj23

  • If Hoyer of the Cubs declined to bring Imanaga back could the Cubs have enough money to sign Cease and Woodruff  ?

Steve Adams

  • The Cubs have enough money regardless of Imanaga. They have about $162.5MM in luxury obligations next year, per RosterResource. They could pick up their option on Imanaga, their option on Kittredge and their option on Rea and still be under $200MM in tax considerations. That's enough room to sign Cease and Woodruff and keep under the line in all likelihood -- and that doesn't even consider possible non-tenders (Reese McGuire, Eli Morgan) or trades of any veterans on the roster.

Rangers13

  • What teams with a need for defensive help would be possible trade partners for AGarcia or Semien if the acquiring team thinks they might be able to return them to close to previous offensive form and who might be options back to the Rangers from those teams?

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Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers were the best team in the American League for a few months. They had a quiet deadline and narrowly avoided what would've been a historic collapse. While winning the Wild Card series and pushing the Mariners to the brink in the Division Series kept this from being a complete disaster, they unquestionably lost momentum in the second half. They're now facing a couple free agent departures and questions about the future for the sport's best pitcher.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Javier Báez, SS: $48MM through 2027
  • Jack Flaherty, RHP: $20MM player option for 2026
  • Colt Keith, 3B: $20.642MM through 2029 (including buyout of '30 club option; deal also includes club options for 2031-32)

Option Decisions

Additional Financial Commitments

2026 guaranteed contracts: $30.5MM or $50.5MM depending on Flaherty's option decision
Total future commitments: $71.142MM or $91.142MM through 2029 depending on Flaherty

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Rainey, Vierling, Foley, Lange, Ibañez, Brieske

Free Agents

It took just a few days after the Tigers were eliminated for speculation to begin about Tarik Skubal. He's a few weeks from his second Cy Young award and now a year away from free agency. Jon Heyman of The New York Post has already suggested Skubal could seek a $400MM contract. Heyman reported that was at least $250MM above what the Tigers were willing to offer during extension talks last winter. Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free-Press subsequently reported that Detroit had offered a four-year deal between $80MM and $100MM.

That was a noncompetitive proposal when Skubal was two years from the open market. His asking price has only climbed after another dominant season that moved him a year closer to free agency. It's not accurate to say that they're facing a $300MM gap -- the Tigers would obviously be willing to offer more than that now -- but it doesn't exactly point to them being likely to hammer out a long-term deal. That naturally leads to wishcasting from other teams (and their fanbases) about the possibility of pulling off a blockbuster trade.

There hasn't been any reporting that the Tigers intend to seriously hear teams out on Skubal, much less actively shop him. The rumors to date have been driven by a few recent instances of contending clubs trading a superstar before his final season of arbitration. The Mookie Betts trade was a disaster for the Red Sox. The Padres did quite well when they traded Juan Soto to the Yankees, winning 90+ games in each of the following two seasons. The Brewers got a solid but not overwhelming return for Corbin Burnes and have remained one of the NL's best teams over the past couple years. The Astros landed a strong three-player package for Kyle Tucker but narrowly missed the playoffs in year one.

The Tigers have made consecutive playoff appearances after a nine-year drought. The front office has already come under fire for a deadline where they deepened the pitching staff in bulk without parting with any significant prospects for an impact acquisition (aside from arguably Kyle Finnegan). They already have a top-tier farm system and could enter the offseason with as little as $30.5MM in guaranteed contracts. They can easily accommodate a projected $17.8MM arbitration salary for Skubal.

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Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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The Yankees had another good season in 2025, but with the Yankees, good isn't good enough. Going into 2026, they will undoubtedly be looking to reload as they continue trying to take advantage of having a superhuman Aaron Judge on the roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Aaron Judge, OF: $240MM through 2031
  • Max Fried, LHP: $196MM through 2032 (includes $10MM to be paid in January of 2026, half of $20MM signing bonus)
  • Gerrit Cole, RHP: $108MM through 2028
  • Carlos Rodón, LHP: $81MM through 2028
  • Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH: $64MM through 2027 (includes $10MM buyout on $25MM club option for 2028; Marlins covering $30MM of remaining guarantee as part of trade)
  • Ryan McMahon, 3B: $32MM through 2027

Other Financial Commitments

Option Decisions

2026 guarantees, assuming Hill's option is picked up: $184MM
Total future commitments: $715MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Leiter, Schmidt, Doval, Cousins, Hamilton, Effross, Bird, Cabrera

Free Agents

The Yankees haven't had a losing season since 1992. They have missed the playoffs just five times in the past 31 years. But the expectations in the Bronx are higher than that. It's now been more than 15 years since the last parade.

There's always pressure for the Yankees to compete but that title drought should create extra urgency. There's also the ticking clock on Judge. He is still producing at an incredible level. Despite missing some time this year, FanGraphs credited him with 10.1 wins above replacement. But he can't keep that up forever and will turn 34 in April. Key contributors like Giancarlo Stanton, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried and Carlos Rodón are also in their 30s, adding to the sense that winning needs to come sooner than later.

A lot of good things still happened in 2025. In spring training, the club lost Cole to Tommy John surgery and Luis Gil to a lat strain. Despite losing two rotation building blocks, the team dominated early. They were 35-22 through the end of May, giving them a 5.5 game lead in the American League East. But a summer swoon took some wind out of the sails, allowing the Blue Jays to take over the top spot in the East. Those two clubs kept battling and ended up with the same record, though the Jays were given the nod via tiebreaker. They would then face off head-to-head in the ALDS, with the Jays emerging victorious.

Going into 2026, there is still a lot of talent on the Yankee roster, though there are questions. The rotation should be strong in the long run, though that's assuming improved health relative to now. There is certainly work to do in the outfield and bullpen, and maybe the infield too. There's also the question of how much the club can throw its weight around financially.

Historically, the Yankees have often been the biggest-spending club in the league. In 2025, they were third, according to RosterResource. The Yanks were at $294MM, well behind the Dodgers and Mets, and just barely ahead of the Phillies. Owner Hal Steinbrenner seems to feel that he shouldn't have to spend much more than $300MM, per Greg Joyce of The New York Post. The 2026 payroll is currently slated for $227MM, per RR. That gives the Yanks some breathing room even if they are going to be capped around $300MM, though that kind of powder can get used up pretty quickly when filling a roster with some notable holes. Is there enough pressure to push Steinbrenner beyond his comfort zone?

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Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates took a step back in 2025 and fired manager Derek Shelton early in the season. He was replaced by his bench coach, Don Kelly, who'll take over in the dugout into 2026 and beyond. General manager Ben Cherington's job status prompted plenty of speculation, but he'll be back for 2026 as well. Can the Pirates finally turn things around?

Guaranteed Contracts

Total 2026 commitments: $30.5MM
Total long-term commitments: $130.5MM through 2030

Option Decisions

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Pirates have drawn increasing levels of praise for their excellent core of young pitching, headlined by likely NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes, but the team's collection of bats is miles behind its impressive stable of arms. Anemic offense proved to be Pittsburgh's downfall yet again in 2025. The Pirates scored just 583 runs -- last in the majors and nearly 300 fewer than the MLB-leading Yankees' mark of 849. Pittsburgh hitters connected on just 117 homers -- a whopping 31 long balls behind the 29th-ranked Cardinals. The Pirates' lineup ranked 28th in batting average, 23rd in OBP and dead last in slugging percentage.

Addressing such widespread offensive deficiency isn't an easy task. Cherington's job security was the source of considerable speculation late in the year. He'll be back for 2026, but with Shelton out the door and owner Bob Nutting calling for "urgency" -- a rich declaration from an owner who hasn't signed a free agent to a multi-year deal in a decade -- there's mounting pressure for the sixth-year Pittsburgh GM to bolster the lineup in support of a strong pitching staff.

Even coming off a last-place finish, the Pirates seem far likelier to add to the roster than subtract. That doesn't mean there won't be some veteran Buccos available via trade -- there very likely will be -- but such trades will be aimed at acquiring young, MLB-ready hitters who can augment a lineup that's badly in need of an overhaul. Let's run through the roster and some possibilities.

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