Under-The-Radar Trade Possibilities For The Astros
The Astros have spent the entire offseason looking for a left-handed hitting outfielder. They swapped Jesús Sánchez for Joey Loperfido last week. That saves around $6MM in the difference between Sánchez's arbitration salary and Loperfido's league minimum sum but doesn't change their lineup balance. They added Cavan Biggio on a minor league deal and are reportedly looking at Michael Conforto, who could also settle for a non-roster invite after a rough year in Los Angeles. They're fine depth targets but not locks to even be on the MLB roster -- much less to be a meaningful upgrade.
Free agency only offers those types of reclamation targets at this point. Beyond Conforto, there are also Max Kepler (suspended for the first 80 games after a failed PED test), Jesse Winker and Alex Verdugo. If the Astros are going to make a significant move, it'll have to be via trade. Most of their trade pursuits have been tied to their willingness to field offers on Isaac Paredes given their infield logjam. That's one avenue but obviously not the only way they could trade for a lefty-hitting outfielder.
MLBTR readers are familiar with the top trade targets who fit the bill. Either Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu would be an ideal fit but seem likelier to remain in Boston. The Cardinals could deal Lars Nootbaar this spring but may prefer to hold him until the deadline, as they'd be selling a little low with their left fielder coming off a pair of heel surgeries. Last week's Caleb Durbin/Kyle Harrison swap is a reminder that teams explore various avenues that don't involve players who have been the subject of public trade speculation. It's safe to assume the Astros have had some of those conversations behind the scenes. Let's run through a handful of affordable left-handed bats whom they could look to pry from another club.
- Daylen Lile, Nationals (pre-arbitration, controllable through 2031)
Lile made his MLB debut in late May and hit the ground running, at least offensively. He ran a .299/.347/.498 slash line with nine home runs through 351 plate appearances. Lile is an excellent pure hitter. He has advanced contact ability and has always hit a ton of line drives. Although he doesn't have huge power, he should have a strong offensive floor based on the batting average alone. He's a career .273 hitter in the minors and had the highest "expected" batting average in MLB last year (.302), per Statcast.
All that said, the 23-year-old looks more like a quality complementary player than a cornerstone of a rebuilding Nationals team. Lile was a mid-tier prospect during his climb through the farm system. Scouts have never doubted the hit tool but have questioned how much all-around impact he'll make. He has fringe-average power. Although he has plus straight line speed, his reads in the outfield are rough. Defensive Runs Saved had Lile a dismal 14 runs below average in just over 600 innings. He was 10 runs worse than average by Statcast.
Single-season defensive metrics can be fluky, but those grades match the eye test. Here are a handful of examples of Lile turning what should have been easy outs into hits, largely by playing very conservatively at the catch point. Maybe he'll improve with time, but he's not a good outfielder right now. The Astros haven't cared much about left field defense, playing Yordan Alvarez, late-career Michael Brantley, and Jose Altuve out there in recent years. The Nationals have a new front office that played no part in drafting or developing Lile. They'd presumably be open to conversations.
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MLB Mailbag: Red Sox, Brewers, Phillies, Braves
This week's mailbag gets into the Red Sox and their offense, Masataka Yoshida's trade value, how far Jacob deGrom is from Hall of Fame consideration, the Brewers and Christian Yelich's contract, the Phillies' and Braves' rotations, and how revenue sharing money is spent. Now that Bruce Meyer has been named executive director of the MLBPA, I've added thoughts on that news at the bottom of this article.
Christopher asks:
Do the Red Sox have enough offense to make the playoffs?
David asks:
It's two weeks before the trade deadline and the Red Sox are in contention but it's painfully obvious they didn't solve their problem with needing a power hitter. I appreciate it's only February but look into your crystal ball. Who are their likely targets?
Dave asks:
Given the fact Luis Arraez recently signed for $12M year contract, do you still feel there is no value for some team picking up Yoshida? Both have bad marks defensively and Arraez has a higher batting average but Yoshida provides more power, so that may balance out. Worse case someone should take Yoshida for at least $8M.
Lloyd asks:
Boston has an OF glut and Duran is mentioned as the one to most likely be traded. Detroit has an INF glut and Torres is tradeable after June 15. Is there a match here, assuming both players are healthy and productive? Would Boston move Duran for Anderson or Lee, Tiger Top-10 prospects who rank in the lower end of the top 110 MLB prospects? Detroit could use an OF bat for the big push. Assuming salary/contract considerations offer no stumbling block, is this something that would work?
The Red Sox continue to have room for a major addition at second or third base, given that recent addition Caleb Durbin can play either spot. Such a pickup would bump Durbin or Marcelo Mayer to the bench, which already has a pair of infielders in Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Romy Gonzalez. (Or Mayer could return to Triple-A, where he's only played 43 games).
It's worth keeping in mind that the most accurate projection system, The Bat X, has Durbin posting an 85 wRC+ this year, Mayer at 86, and Kiner-Falefa at 69. Gonzalez is at 102, but he's done almost all his damage against left-handed pitching. Even veteran shortstop Trevor Story is only at 97 in that projection system. Throw in catcher Carlos Narvaez at 83 and Ceddanne Rafaela at 88, and there's a pretty good chance five of nine Red Sox lineup spots feature subpar offense.
Certainly, there is room for a Mayer breakout or a Kristian Campbell bounceback (Campbell is outfield-focused). Durbin and Narvaez could sustain more of last year's success. Story may hit like he did from June onward last year. Rafaela flashed brilliance at the plate for a couple months.
But that's quite a few "ifs," and the club is reliant on good health from 33-34-year-olds Story and Willson Contreras.
Offense isn't everything, which is why FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a healthy 60.1 shot at the playoffs this year. The club projects to get a lot of value out of its outfield and DH spots; they're fifth in baseball in total WAR for those four spots. The opposite is true of Boston's infield, which rates 26th. And that does account for the club's likely improved infield defense.
The Red Sox rank first in all of baseball for projected starting pitcher WAR. About 72% of that value is coming from the trio at the top: Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suarez. While the Sox do have a wealth of solid depth options behind them, it's fair to say a major injury to Crochet, Gray, Suarez, Roman Anthony, or Rafaela could knock them out of the playoff picture. I'm sure you could say that about the top five players of any team, but three of these are pitchers. Crochet and Suarez have lengthy injury histories, and Gray is 36.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Hey everyone, hope you enjoyed your weekend!
- Different schedule with the holiday so I'll have to keep this one around an hour
RoxTalks
- When Arenado gets into Cooperstown, does he go in as a Rockie, or is there too much bad blood there? Thanks!
Anthony Franco
- Agree he's a Hall of Famer, and yes, pretty clearly a Rockie for me
- Could argue his best season was with St. Louis in '22 but majority of his career was in Colorado, including five of the six top 10 MVP finishes. Second or third best player in franchise history for the Rox
Guest
- Over Under 93.5 Mets wins, and what is the X-factor
Anthony Franco
- I'll go under but not dramatically so. If I have to pick one x-factor, it's McLean
- Confident they're going to hit. Bullpen isn't elite but should be solid enough. Rotation's the highest variance but obviously looks much stronger if McLean is immediately a #2 starter
Joe from Milwaukee
- Do you think the Brewers make an effort to extend Contreras? They seem a lot more willing to give big money to their position players historically and he's one of the best catchers in baseball. Also, the Yelich money is gone after 2028 anyway.
Anthony Franco
- Pretty far outside their usual spending habits at this stage of a player's career. Quero's hanging around as a potential long-term answer as long as the throwing drop-off isn't permanent. Eventual trade of Contreras seems more probable
el jefe
- After a busy week (Andujar, Castellanos, France, Canning, Marquez), how much have the Padres improved?
Thoughts on the Preller extension?
Anthony Franco
- Probably added two wins between all those moves? Not bad for the cost. Canning's my favorite of them but they're all sensible since rotation depth and the bench were the biggest issues and not that difficult to address for cheap
- France would've been overkill on an MLB deal. For a minor league deal, sure. Decent chance he just doesn't break camp and opts out at the end of Spring Training
- We'll see how long the Preller extension runs but makes sense to keep him around. Much as the approach can be shortsighted at times, especially with the free agent spending toward the end of Peter Seidler's ownership, they continue to trot out top 5-10 teams that are also far more exciting than virtually any Padres teams from before Preller was hired
Ms fan
- Are teams generally staying away from promoting their top prospects to AAA now? Seems like you get a lot more guys going straight from AA to the majors.
Anthony Franco
- Yeah it seems like this is happening more often. The Prospect Promotion Incentive rules are part of it. There's also just less to be gleaned from Triple-A from an evaluation perspective
- The Pacific Coast League, in particular, is so hitter-friendly that the stats there don't mean much. The pitcher quality at Triple-A continues to drop as injuries at the MLB level rise and force teams to call up more of their depth arms. There's also more of a tendency for the interesting Quad-A pitchers to move to Asia rather than sticking around in Triple-A because they can see the earning potential if they have success overseas
Guards4Life
- Is Kwan open to an extension or is he gone? Haven't heard much from his camp.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope you've all had a good week!
- Decent number of questions in here, let's get rolling
Half St
- There really isn't much for Nats fans to look forward to unless the new regime proves to be much better at developing young players. Do you feel there might be one young player who could make a surprise jump and carry the team forward from the absolute depths? James Wood seems the obvious answer, but should I be hoping on anybody else?
Anthony Franco
- Wood's the obvious one. Durability's the big caveat for Cavalli but I think he'd be a mid-rotation starter if he can stay healthy. Harry Ford's stock is down a little from its peak but still feels like a capable starting catcher to me
- Abrams has a higher gear but he's probably getting traded before they're back to being competitive. Confidence in Crews is waning. Lile feels like a role player to be, not a believer in Brady House at this point
Barron Of th Bullpen
- How does BlueJays & Astros trade effect Cam Smith's playing time? What is your opinion of Smith long term?
Joey Loperfid'oh!
- Who won this trade - Jays or Astros?
Anthony Franco
- I prefer Houston's end of it because I'd have just non-tendered Sánchez, who I don't think is a $7M player. Loperfido is a fine bench bat, won't have any impact on Cam Smith
- Seems like Houston wants Smith to start the season in Triple-A after how he finished last year, which is understandable. Loperfido's not blocking him and I imagine there's another move coming to add a mid-tier outfielder to replace Sánchez
Tony
- Thanks for the chats. With early posturing by owners for a salary cap, or seems as if the only way the players would agree is if MLB agrees to a floor and some kind of revenue sharing. Both sides will argue the league needs to improve competition. Since owners have resisted sharing their books is there a way forward? Or will MLB have to edit the game to save it.
Anthony Franco
- All the cap systems come with a salary floor. The league would be on board with that -- albeit with some dissent from the smaller-market owners -- but MLBPA continues to maintain that's a non-starter. If they budge on that, it would require a dramatic increase in revenue sharing to ensure the small-market teams meet the floor, yeah
- Doesn't necessarily mean they need to open the books to the public. They'd need to share it with the Players Association but they already do that, the MLBPA just can't leak it. The bigger stumbling block -- again, beyond the PA considering this at all -- is how to calculate revenue. The players would want all the adjacent "ballpark village" stuff to factor into those calculations, while the team would obviously want to construe it much more narrowly
Sultan of Sling
- The Giants can't possibly be done assembling their bullpen. Can they?
Anthony Franco
- Haha well they signed Rowan Wick three minutes ago, so I guess not?
- In all seriousness, yeah they're pretty much out of options back there and it's my biggest gripe with the roster
The Beatles Show
- Hey Anthony, how's the weather for you? Second...probably happier question: With the Sanchez trade does that mean the Astros are going to keep Parades and move him to left?
Anthony Franco
- Alright the past few days! All of January sucked. Don't thing Sánchez has any real impact on Paredes, they could've played him in LF either way if they wanted to do that. Seems ill advised when he's coming off the hamstring injury
Arizona
- Which is more likely? A lottery pick or a playoff run?
Anthony Franco
- Hmm, I think they'll end up in between but lottery pick feels a little more likely. The bullpen's really rough, rotation could go south quickly with an injury or two, and now there's a question about what they'll get from Carroll early in the season
Alex Anthopoulus
- What am I doing? Our projected #2 starter goes down and I haven't done a thing to address the starting rotation issue (that got worse with the Schwellenbach injury). This is a very odd offseason, it started "adequately" but I still haven't solved the main problem from the beginning.
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Ballparking A Nico Hoerner Extension
In the aftermath of the Alex Bregman signing, one of the immediate questions was whether it changed how the Cubs would proceed with Nico Hoerner. Bregman pushed second-year infielder Matt Shaw into a utility role, but he'd be capable of stepping in at second base. The Giants, Red Sox and Mariners were among the teams seeking a trade match for a player of Hoerner's profile. Would the Cubs flip him before his walk year?
That's almost certainly not happening now. There was no reason for the Cubs to entertain the possibility unless they were blown away by the kind of prospect that other teams would not entertain for a rental (e.g. Connelly Early, Bryce Eldridge). Hoerner is a much better player than Shaw in the short term, and the Cubs have as strong a chance as anyone to take the NL Central. Boston traded for Caleb Durbin, while the Giants signed Luis Arraez to play second. Seattle acquired Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals.
As Spring Training gets underway, the focus might now swing to an extension. March is the most common time of year for those conversations. If the Cubs are able to get a long-term deal done with Hoerner this spring, that could make them more comfortable dangling Shaw in deadline talks if any top-of-the-rotation starters come available. Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic wrote this week that Hoerner has emerged as a pillar in the clubhouse. The relationship between team and player is strong enough that it'd be a surprise if they didn't have some conversations before Opening Day about what it'd take to keep him off the market.
Let's try to narrow down what that might cost:
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Do The Brewers Have Another Move Up Their Sleeve?
Monday's surprise trade sending Rookie of the Year finalist Caleb Durbin from Milwaukee to Boston plugged a hole in the Red Sox' infield while ostensibly opening one for the Brewers. Not only did the Brewers trade their incumbent third baseman, the deal also sent Andruw Monasterio and Anthony Seigler to Boston -- two of Milwaukee's top options on the third base depth chart. The Brewers picked up speedster David Hamilton in that swap and will give him some spring reps at the hot corner, but he's played all of one game professionally at third base. Hamilton's value is derived primarily from plus second base glovework and his abilities on the basepaths. He's not a natural fit to take the reins at third base.
Though the Durbin trade opened up a hole at third base, it also further deepened the Brewers' already deep collection of starting pitchers. Even after trading ace Freddy Peralta to the Mets for top prospects Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams, the Brewers boast a starting staff that'll include Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski, Quinn Priester and Chad Patrick in the top four spots. Plausible candidates for the fifth spot include Sproat, Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser, DL Hall, Aaron Ashby and newly acquired lefties Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan, who came to Milwaukee alongside Hamilton.
The Brewers are no strangers to putting the finishing touches on their big league roster once spring training is already underway. In fact, it's become almost something of an annual tradition. In 2025, Milwaukee didn't sign Jose Quintana until early March. Even their trade for Priester came a week or so into the season. In 2024, they signed Gary Sánchez and re-signed Brandon Woodruff after camp had opened. Their late signings in 2023 included Luke Voit, Justin Wilson and Jon Singleton.
By the time camp opens, many clubs have finished conducting the bulk of their heavy lifting. That hasn't been the case for the Brewers, and with at least one open question in their infield, it's fair to think president of baseball operations Matt Arnold and his staff are looking into one more finishing piece even as pitchers and catchers travel south to Arizona for the beginning of the Cactus League season.
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MLB Mailbag: Orioles, Braves, Castellanos, Brewers, Hot Takes
This week's mailbag gets into the Orioles' and Braves' rotations, whether Nick Castellanos could help the Tigers, and what the Brewers will do at third base after trading Caleb Durbin. It concludes with a bunch of my half-baked "hot takes" for your amusement. I'd love to see yours in the comments.
Michael asks:
Why couldn't the Orioles have signed Ranger Suarez? Seems like they whiffed on this deal.
I don't know that it needed to be Suarez specifically, but Orioles president of baseball operations and GM Mike Elias has thus far failed to add a front of the rotation starting pitcher. Shane Baz is probably good for 2 WAR and still has breakout potential. But (likely) better pitchers such as Suarez, Dylan Cease, Sonny Gray, Framber Valdez, Michael King, MacKenzie Gore, and Freddy Peralta were available this winter and the Orioles didn't add any of them.
Elias had this to say in a recent press conference: "I think we’ve put together a really strong rotation as it stands right now. We’ll continue to look externally, if we can bolster this group in one way, shape or form. … But I think that this rotation looks good."
Elias could still boost the team by one or even two wins by signing Zac Gallen, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today did name the Orioles as one of four suitors. Still, any of the above would've been better. Elias noted that "late signings can be tricky," implying that his interest in adding a notable free agent starter might diminish by (in my estimation) the end of the month.
FanGraphs projects the Orioles' rotation to be the 17th-best in MLB. That includes 3.1 WAR from Kyle Bradish in 148 innings. I think Bradish is good for more than that, though I'm also not confident Zach Eflin can reach his 146 inning projection, so maybe it's a wash. Eflin underwent lumbar microdiscectomy surgery last August and aims to be ready for Opening Day.
FanGraphs' projections currently calls for five different Orioles pitchers to reach 146 innings. Is there any chance of that happening?
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat, Today 3pm CT
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! Sorry to open the queue later than usual -- hectic day of baseball news! I'll get going at 3pm and take questions for an hour or so before I need to scurry off to pick up the kids from daycare. Thanks everyone!
- Good afternoon! Let's get started
Duffy
- At this point, could the Red Sox trade Yoshida and most of his contract, just to address the log jam he’s creating? I guess they could just DFA him, but at least they could get a lottery ticket back.
Steve Adams
- I've been pretty consistent that the only way they could move him would be to eat like 75% of the contract. I just don't see who's paying anything close to $18MM annually for a platoon DH coming off a down season in terms of both health and performance.I don't think they'd really get much back in terms of lottery ticket prospects, even if they were eating like $28MM of the $36MM he's owed.
I'm sure they've looked into that sort of possibility, but it's not something that's going to appeal to many other clubs.
Grump
- Who will be Braves #2 catcher till Murphy is back?
Steve Adams
- I'd imagine Chadwick Tromp, though they also have Sandy Leon and Jair Camargo headed to camp on non-roster deals. They carried Leon for like three weeks at one point last summer and didn't even put him in a game, ha. Tromp has gotten occasional run in multiple stints with Atlanta and is back, so he feels like the front-runner from here.
Still an A
- Does Marcelo Mayer start the year in the minors now with the Durban trade and IKF signing?
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Hey all, hope you're doing well!
- Steve and Darragh are getting killed by the waiver deluge today so I'll keep this one right around an hour to chip away at that after
- Let's get it rolling
Tigers lover
- Thanks for the chat, Anthony! Scott Harris and the Tigers finally finally finally put their chips in and got Framber... and they had to, this next year might be their biggest opportunity, before they lose the best pitcher in the game. With these guys now as Tigers' one-two punch, how do you rank American League contenders?
Anthony Franco
- Yeah love this for them, finally showed a sense of urgency to win now. I expected them to add a starter but figured it'd be more in the Bassitt/Giolito range
- Clear team to beat in the Central. They were before really, but this just widens the gap. I don't think there really is a hierarchy of AL contenders. Guess I'd give the edge to Seattle as the best team but it's as muddled as any year I can remember
- If you wanted to argue for the Tigers or any non-Rays team in the AL East for that spot, I wouldn't have much pushback. Baltimore's probably a stretch with that pitching staff but wouldn't be all that surprising if they mash their way back to the top of the division either
Rays Apologist
- Do the Rays still sign one of the free agent lower tier starters or are they pretty much finalized as a squad now? Was hoping for a Littell reunion.
Anthony Franco
- I think there's one more coming. Boyle's probably not a starter. I like Seymour but there's not much after that if he wins the fifth starter job. Littell would make sense, sure
Paul
- Hello Anthony. The Red Sox can’t be done can they? I know the pickings are getting slim. They need a RH power bat desperately. Are Tyler O’Neill or Nick Castellnos options? I’m assuming it wouldn’t cost much of a package to acquire either one of them.
Anthony Franco
- Seems like Contreras was the righty power bat. TON or Castellanos wouldn't get much playing time
- If you want to wait for the Phillies to release Castellanos, sign him for the minimum and cut Yoshida, maybe that could work. It'd add a little bit of balance. Is Castellanos signing up for that when he can decide where he wants to go because everyone's offering him the same salary? I don't know
Tom Rickets
- Does 6 years and $120 million get Nico Hoerner back to the Cubs?
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What Would It Cost The A’s To Continue Their Run Of Extensions?
The A's have made a point of locking up their core players as they target 2028 for their move to Las Vegas. Over the past 14 months, they've signed extensions with Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, Tyler Soderstrom and Jacob Wilson. They're looking to continue that run, as both Martín Gallegos of MLB.com and Mark Anderson of The Associated Press wrote this week that the team could still try to get deals done with Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers.
The extensions serve a couple purposes for the A's. They lock in what could be an elite lineup with less concern among the fanbase about them tearing the roster down the way they did after the 2021 season. They're largely backloaded deals, which raises the team's competitive balance payroll (based on annual value) to avoid a revenue sharing grievance without costing as much in salary while they're playing in Sacramento.
The A's have increased their short-term spending with Luis Severino signing and trades for Jeffrey Springs and Jeff McNeil, but their projected $139MM luxury tax number is dramatically higher than their actual $88MM estimated 2026 payroll (via RosterResource). The bills will come due down the line, at which point the organization is projecting a revenue spike from their new stadium.
All four of the recent extensions look like nice bits of business for the team -- Wilson's in particular. They could have a tougher time finding agreeable price points with Kurtz and Langeliers. Both have strong leverage, and they're represented by a pair of agencies that rarely sign extensions. That said, let's take a look at what kind of prices it might take to get talks rolling.
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