Trade Deadline Outlook: Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians won the American League Central in 2025 but didn’t do much to follow up on that division crown in the winter. They entered the year relying almost entirely on in-house players like Chase DeLauter, Parker Messick, Travis Bazzana, Cooper Ingle and others breaking through to play meaningful roles in the majors. The approach has had mixed results, but the American League as a whole has been so flawed that Cleveland finds itself right in the playoff picture. The Guards are in a nominal tie with the White Sox for the division lead, but they’re currently a Wild Card team since Chicago is leading the season series between the two teams.
In all likelihood, Cleveland will operate as a buyer at the deadline. The extent to which they’ll be willing to ship out potential high-end contributors for short-term gain isn’t clear, but the Guardians generally shy away from splashy deadline additions. There have been a select few notable exceptions over the years (e.g. Andrew Miller), but Cleveland typically prefers to hang onto its top prospects.
Record: 51-46 (61.6% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)
Buy Mode
Potential needs: Outfield (multiple), first base, rotation depth, reliever
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Cleveland has been carried by its pitching staff but has a clear need for multiple bats. Cleveland has scored the second-fewest runs in baseball (385), leading only the Padres. Guardians hitters are 29th in average (.229), tied for 23rd in OBP (.310) and last in the majors in slugging (.369). Their 93 home runs are the fourth-fewest in the sport.
In the past, Cleveland’s lack of power has been a trade-off for elite contact/bat-to-ball skills. That’s not really the case in 2026. Cleveland’s teamwide 22.4% strikeout rate is tied with the Rangers for 17th in baseball. The MLB average strikeout rate in 2026 is 22.1%. Cleveland hitters do draw walks at a slightly above-average clip (9.8% compared to the league-average 9%), and they’re better than average on the basepaths, too. Cleveland has a station-to-station, small-ball style of offensive play that necessitates constantly putting the pressure on opposing defenses … but they’re not really putting the ball in play enough to maximize that style.
The most glaring areas of need are in the outfield and at first base. It’s true that Cleveland catchers are again a well below-average unit, but the Guardians organization prioritizes catcher defense more than any other club in the game. It’s the reason they traded for Patrick Bailey back in May when he was hitting .146/.213/.185; he’s the best defensive catcher in the game. It’s easy to argue that Cleveland should aim for more offense here, but with Bailey and Austin Hedges on the major league roster and Bo Naylor in Triple-A, they’re clearly committed to a premium glove behind the dish, even at the cost of offense.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! Sorry for the lack of chat yesterday. I was off for a long weekend for an annual family gathering. Back in the swing of things now! I’ll get going at 3pm CT, but as always, feel free to submit questions ahead of time.
- Hello!
- Let us commence.
Bruce T.
- Seeing Mike Trout at HR Derby last night, any chance he ever goes to the Angels and asks for a trade? How much of his huge salary would Arte have to eat, and what sort of return could the Halos get? He needs to play for a winning team.
Steve Adams
- This assumes that Trout actually wants to be traded. He yet again implied just last night (to the New York Post) that he has no real interest in being traded.The All-Star Game being in Philly is dredging up Trout/Phils speculation for the umpteenth time, but Trout himself seems content where he’s at. He said less than Byron Buxton did on the matter (in that same NY Post piece), but I found Buxton’s comments pretty well-stated:
“And two, I got family,” Buxton continued. “My family loves Minnesota. It’s a special place, not only for me but for my family. You’re not just moving me. You’re moving my family. And you’re moving what we have built in Minnesota.”
- Trout has been with the Angels this long, through a decade of organizational turmoil and ineptitude, and he hasn’t asked for a trade. I don’t see any reason to think it’s going to happen.
- To be clear, I wasn’t saying you were only asking your question due to the ASG’s location — just that I’ve seen a boatload of Trout/Philly speculation over the past week because of this year’s ASG.
walterj23
- If the Twins are going to be holding on to Ryan and Hoyer probably won’t spend enough to get Skubal from the Tigers , which would be the best available pitcher at the trade deadline besides those two ?
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Trade Deadline Outlook: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners are coming off an ALCS appearance in 2025 and are looking to go even farther in 2026. They are in decent position thus far, as they have a slight lead in a tight American League West. A lot of the roster is in good position, so they might only look to make marginal additions, though they have a strong farm system and could make a bold strike if they wanted to.
Record: 47-46 (82.7% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)
Buy Mode
Potential needs: right-handed bat, relief pitching, ace
Despite a fairly middling record, the Seattle roster looks quite strong on paper. The rotation is six deep, forcing the club to awkwardly jam their starters into unusual piggybacking scenarios. The bullpen is also putting up good numbers. As a whole, the pitching staff has a 3.54 earned run average. Only the Brewers, Yankees and Dodgers are better in that category. Seattle could and should pick up another reliever or two. Even clubs with good bullpens can squeeze an extra guy in there to bump out the weakest link. The Mariners are one of the few clubs who don’t need to be looking for rotation help. That doesn’t mean they couldn’t, however. More on that below.
The lineup is more middling. They have a collective .230/.311/.379 line, which leads to a 101 wRC+, a hair above average and 15th in the majors. Among the lineup regulars, few are truly flourishing but few are really obvious candidates to be replaced. At last year’s deadline, the Mariners added two big bats when they traded for Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez. Doing the same this year might be a bit harder to pull off.
Nine different Mariners have made at least 130 plate appearances this year. Most of those have been close to league average. Six of those nine have a wRC+ between 94 and 115. Randy Arozarena and Dominic Canzone are the two guys well above that window. That leaves one player way below, which is shockingly Cal Raleigh.
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MLB Mailbag: Bubble Teams, Mets, Cardinals, Okamoto, Ashcraft
This week’s Mailbag tries to discern which bubble teams will make a push to contend, what the Mets’ deadline may look like, Andre Pallante‘s potential trade value, Kazuma Okamoto‘s progress in MLB, Braxton Ashcraft‘s dominance and more.
Lloyd asks:
Which bubble teams (at least 3 games back from a playoff spot with at least one team ahead of them) do you think will fall out of contention by the trade deadline, and which of them are best-positioned to make a run?
In the American League, the Rays, White Sox and Mariners hold division leads as of this writing. The Yankees, Guardians and Rangers have the three Wild Card spots. I’m going to call the 36-56 Angels and the 38-54 Royals too far gone to be “bubble” teams. That leaves the Astros, Twins, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles, Tigers and A’s as the American League’s “bubble” teams.
The playoff picture is ever so slightly more solid in the National League. The Dodgers and Brewers have commanding division leads. The Braves have been wilting as the Phillies keep thriving; their once-massive lead is down to three games. That puts the Phils, Cubs and … Marlins! … as the current Wild Card holders. If we can rule out the 38-56 Rockies, the 39-54 Mets, and the 38-54 Giants, we’re left with a six-team bubble of the Cardinals, Pirates, Nationals, D-backs, Padres and Reds.
The most realistic answer to this question is that most of these clubs won’t end up aggressively acting one way or another. One club tends to always wave the white flag and concede in a big way — think the 2025 Twins or 2024 Rays — but most of the clubs within these groups will likely either end up as modest buyers/sellers — perhaps trying to thread the needle of selling short-term pieces while exploring deals to bring in some controllable players who’ll help in a renewed push for contention next season.
Since I love to be wrong, let’s run through each of these bubble teams, look at their remaining schedules/current slates of injuries, and try to glean who’ll end up going which way! Surely we’ll look back on this in one month’s time and marvel at the flawless accuracy, right? Of course we will!
Astros: Houston closes out the first half with three games in Texas. They’ll host the O’s and Marlins coming out of the break before hitting the road to visit the White Sox, Angels and Rangers in their final nine games before the deadline. Last year’s playoff miss was Houston’s first in a decade. They made seven straight ALCS appearances from 2017-23 before falling to the upstart Tigers in the 2024 Wild Card round. It’s a team that’s used to winning and an owner who’s been in win-now mode since the conclusion of their famous multi-year tank/rebuild effort.
Houston’s rotation is being held together by scotch tape, but they just got Hunter Brown back not long ago and have received surprisingly strong output from minor league signee Peter Lambert and rebound right-hander Spencer Arrighetti. Tatsuya Imai has been a flop thus far, as has the recently optioned Mike Burrows. This is a team that needs at least one starter, even with the looming returns of Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski. Their longstanding interest in adding a left-handed bat to the outfield persists.
The Astros are 34-28 since an awful 8-18 April. They withstood what seemed like a backbreaking barrage of injuries and are now less than two games out of a playoff spot. Their general manager is in the final season of his contract. The owner wants to win every year. Yes, the farm is bad, but it’d take a major collapse at this point for the Astros not to operate as at least modest buyers.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope all is well! Sorry about the schedule change, Steve and I both had conflicts tomorrow afternoon
- Let’s get rolling
walterj23
- Will there Twins be shopping Ryan and if so what would it cost the Cubs in a trade?
Anthony Franco
- Still think they should shop Joe Ryan but can’t imagine they will. That was equally true last offseason, Minnesota ownership thought they could contend, and they basically are
- They’re not a good team but close enough to average to hang around in the American League. Feels like they’d need a plug and play starter who’s not as good as Ryan but comes with an extended window of club control to make them think about it. Cubs don’t really have that
- Ben Brown might’ve worked but he’s hurt again and doesn’t seem likely he’ll be back before the deadline
Gavin
- I know Preller hoards relief pitchers like dragon do gold…. But could the padres spin Estrada for someone like Lodolo?
Anthony Franco
- Yeah I think this is reasonable. Reds could use a controllable reliever, Padres desperately need competent starters. If Estrada had been healthy all year, I wouldn’t give him up for Lodolo but the injury history and slight velocity dip is enough that I could see this fitting for both teams
Trout Phishin’
- Phillies need RHH outfielder and back end starter. Who’s available?
Anthony Franco
- Leo went into a lot more detail on this in their deadline outlook this week and did an excellent job:
- https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/07/trade-deadline-outlook-philadel…
- Heliot Ramos works. Still think they make the most sense on Jung Hoo Lee despite the handedness, big-market team who needs a plug and play above-average RF
- Guessing the rotation add will be more modest, an Eric Lauer type fifth starter. Ideally they’d aim higher to bump Nola from a potential playoff rotation but I get that it’s complicated by his track record
- Not the worst thing in the world if he starts a Game 4, just have to be ready to get him out early if he gives up an early HR or two
ScottHarris
- With so many .500ish, at best teams in the AL, is it worth it to try for what may be a short playoff run when selling can bring significant prospect capital and/or controllable players for next year? The track record of teams with 85 or fewer wins in the postseason isn’t good, but is it ever worth it to pass up a legitimate shot at the postseason?
Anthony Franco
- Tigers question, just to clarify
- I’m generally of the opinion that just getting in matters but that’s been a little less true in recent years, especially in the AL. The AL Central teams have generally been overmatched, the small sample playoff volatility thing hasn’t really shown up for them
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Trade Deadline Outlook: Miami Marlins
Six weeks ago, the Marlins looked like one of the league’s few obvious sellers. They’ve been baseball’s best team since the beginning of June, reeling off a 24-8 stretch to climb eight games above .500 for the first time in three years. A walk-off win over Seattle last night was their fourth straight victory and has them two games ahead of the field for the National League’s final Wild Card spot.
Baseball Reference gives the Marlins a 58% chance of securing their first playoff berth since 2023. Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs both place them just north of 40%. While it still seems unlikely they’ll surpass more talented rosters in Atlanta and Philadelphia to win the NL East, they’ve climbed within three games of the division and are firmly in the Wild Card picture.
For a lot of bubble teams, their performance over the next month is the biggest factor in how the front office will approach the deadline. Miami has a moderately difficult schedule leading up to August 3. They have two more against the Mariners and will close the season’s first half with a home set against the Guardians. They’ll go on a road trip to Milwaukee and Houston coming out of the All-Star Break, then host the Padres and Phillies to close out July. They’ll play a four-game set in Queens against a reeling Mets team as their lead-up to the deadline.
If they’re still in possession of a playoff spot at the end of July, it seems fair to expect the front office to add. A bad month could tip the scales back toward standing pat or a modest sale, though it’s clear they’re beyond the full rebuild stage of Peter Bendix’s tenure running baseball operations. Let’s run through both potential outcomes depending on the team’s performance over the next few weeks.
Record: 50-42 (41% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)
Buy Mode
Potential needs: Back-end starter, high-leverage relief, third base, right-handed bat
Rotation
While the Marlins have built their rebuild mostly around pitching, they nevertheless find themselves in need of more arms to take the next step. They traded Jesús Luzardo, Ryan Weathers and Edward Cabrera — seemingly out of concern about injury risk more than any pressing financial reasons. Their top two pitching prospects, Thomas White and Robby Snelling, went down this year. Snelling is certainly done for the season after undergoing elbow surgery, while White has a shoulder sprain and seems unlikely to make his MLB debut before 2027.
Max Meyer and Sandy Alcantara have been the two constants in the rotation. Meyer, a former third overall pick, has broken out and is pitching at a top-of-the-rotation level. Alcantara isn’t a Cy Young contender anymore but remains a well above-average starter and still works as deep into games as any pitcher in the league. Eury Pérez made a quick return from a gracilis (thigh) strain and still has some of the best stuff in MLB.
It’s a good top three. The trades and injuries have tested the depth. Tyler Phillips has moved from long relief into the rotation. He has done a decent job overall but has a 5.24 ERA and 15% strikeout rate as a starter. He’d ideally be in a swing role. The Marlins will get Janson Junk back from shin inflammation tomorrow. That’ll technically give them a full rotation, but one injury would force them to go back to a depth option like Ryan Gusto or Braxton Garrett (the latter of whom the club clearly doesn’t trust despite his strong Triple-A numbers).
Can Meyer and Pérez be trusted to stay healthy all season? The former has already thrown 108 innings. He has never tossed more than 111 frames in a minor league or MLB season and managed just 64 2/3 innings last year before requiring season-ending hip surgery. Pérez’s workload track record is even more alarming; he has never reached 100 innings in a professional season and is at 79 2/3 this year. Miami has such a rigid plan to monitor his in-start workload that they pulled him amidst a perfect game bid at 92 pitches on Sunday.
“Us looking to play beyond the regular season, Eury’s going to be an important part of that,” manager Clayton McCullough said postgame (link via Christina De Nicola of MLB.com). “He had it really going today, and I totally get it; and there was a part of my heartstrings pulling at his opportunity to keep on going, but I think I have to think about Eury, one, and our organization, our team, and what’s best moving forward to give us a chance to continue to win games. So, made more of a calculated decision with where he was with the pitch count to take him out.”
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Trade Deadline Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies
One month into their 2026 season, the Phillies had the worst record in MLB. They were half a game back of the Mets, who had the second-worst record, and 9.5 back of the Braves, who led the majors in wins. In the 10 weeks since, the Phillies have left the Mets in the dust and climbed within shouting distance of the Braves in the NL East. Their winning percentage in that stretch is .641, a 104-win pace.
The Phillies improved their regular season record and run differential in each of Dave Dombrowski’s first five years as president of baseball operations. Their slow start in 2026 makes that unlikely to happen for a sixth year in a row. Still, there’s little doubt their POBO will be aggressive at the deadline once again. The NL Wild Card standings are crowded, but the Phillies have the wins, they have the talent, and they have every incentive to buy in the coming weeks. A Wild Card berth seems likely, and a third consecutive NL East title is back within reach.
Record: 50-41 (83.9% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)
Buy Mode
Potential needs: Outfield, right-handed bat(s), back-end starter, bullpen depth
There’s one move Dombrowski needs to get right. Or, more accurately, there’s one move Dombrowski needs to make: get right.
The Phillies’ biggest need is a right-handed hitter, ideally one who plays right field. Entering play on Monday, their offense ranked 16th in runs per game, but their 92 wRC+ was 24th. Three lefty bats – Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Brandon Marsh – have done nearly all the work. Philadelphia’s only right-handed hitter with a wRC+ above 80 is recent trade acquisition Derek Hill, whose career numbers and batted ball data suggest his hot streak will be short-lived. Collectively, the team’s right-handed bats rank last in the NL in batting average and last in MLB in OBP, slugging percentage, OPS, and wRC+. Adolis García wasn’t doing much to help the cause before he tore his lat, and with him out for the season, the Phillies have an opening for a new righty bat to take his place.
Right field isn’t the only position where Philadelphia could use some help, but it’s clearly the priority. Justin Crawford hasn’t done anything to cement an everyday role this year, but at least the rookie covers ground in center field. Alec Bohm has a 78 wRC+, same as Crawford, and the third baseman can’t compensate for his shortcomings at the plate with defense or speed. Even so, he offers more upside than the Phillies’ options to patch the hole in right field. Finally, the team hasn’t gotten much production from their shortstop and catcher either, but all they can do there is hope for Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto to turn things around.
If the Phillies only make one addition to their lineup, it should be a righty-batting outfielder. If they make another, it should also be a righty-batting outfielder. The reasoning is simple. They have plenty of room on their bench and a couple of lefty platoon bats currently filling everyday roles. Don Mattingly has tried to shield Crawford from same-handed pitching, but that’s hard without a good enough righty to sub in. As for Marsh, his splits against lefties are still below average, even in a career year. The way he’s hit this season merits a full-time job (142 wRC+ vs. RHP, 95 wRC+ vs. LHP), but his career numbers do not (122 wRC+ vs. RHP, 67 wRC+ vs. LHP). The Phillies could say Marsh is the least of their problems right now, but that might prove shortsighted if his stats against southpaws start to regress.
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Trade Deadline Outlook: Athletics
Three weeks ago, the A’s were within a half game in the AL West. The front office looked positioned to add pitching help in an effort to break their five-year playoff drought. Late June brought a handful of injuries that have decimated the lineup and led to a plummet down the standings. The A’s have lost three straight, six of seven, and 11 of their last 14. They’re a season-worst eight games below .500 at 41-49 and would need a huge July to get back into contention by the August 3 deadline.
The A’s don’t have a ton to peddle on the trade market. If their free fall continues, this will probably be a quiet deadline season. Their impending free agents aren’t performing, but they’re unlikely to deal from their high-end position player group. While there’s an argument for them to listen on their All-Star catcher, his two remaining seasons of arbitration control give them the ability to hold and hope for better health and pitching development next season.
Record: 41-49 (10% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)
Sell Mode
Likely impending free agents: Jeffrey Springs (club option), Jeff McNeil (club option), Mark Leiter Jr., Jonah Heim, Aaron Civale
Springs and McNeil are two of the team’s three highest-paid players. They’re each in the final guaranteed seasons of their contracts. The A’s technically control both for 2027 via club options, but neither is likely to be picked up. Retaining Springs would cost them $15MM. McNeil’s deal comes with a $15.75MM option that is guaranteed to be declined.
That’d leave the A’s with five impending free agents, all of whom are role players at best for a contender. Springs is probably the best of the group, as he’s only a year removed from pitching at a league average level. Opposing lineups have pounded him for a 5.79 ERA over 18 starts this year. His strikeout and walk profile is the same as he had in 2025, when he allowed 4.11 earned runs per nine over 171 innings. He’s throwing a tick harder than he did a year ago.
Springs is a fly-ball pitcher who sits in the low-90s, though, so he has always been prone to home runs. Playing in Sacramento’s hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park never suited him. Springs has an ERA close to 7.00 while allowing 16 longballs in 54 1/3 innings at home. He has a 4.38 ERA across 39 frames on the road. The A’s could probably find a team looking for a bland fifth starter who’s willing to give up a middling prospect and take a few million dollars of Springs’ $10.5MM salary off the books — as the Cubs did with David Peterson a couple weeks ago.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Happy Monday! Four weeks until the deadline.
- We’ll get started at 3pm CT, give or take a couple minutes. Feel free to start sending in questions ahead of time though, as always!
- Hello! Hope everyone had a nice holiday weekend
- Let’s get underway
Bloom
- I know it’s early, but what should be the priorities for the Cardinals’ offseason? What are the biggest areas for improvement? Where will starts come from next year?
Steve Adams
- The rotation, by a pretty wide margin. Dustin May is their best starter right now, which isn’t a very encouraging statement in and of itself, and he’s a free agent at season’s end. The Cardinals should be looking at ways to add both veteran innings and some younger, controllable arms who can miss talent. That latter need is far easier said than done, of course, but if they’re moving Noot at the deadline, that could/should be a focus. I’d be open to moving Burleson either at the deadline or in the offseason as well.They’re in contention, but they’ve gotten there with near flawless health and in spite of a really weak starting staff. I just don’t think this rotation is good enough to hold up, and if they lose a key bat or two due to injury, the whole thing starts to look shaky in a hurry.
Rico
- Steve! With Anderson and Sloan on the horizon, how do you think the Mariners rotation shakes out, both this year and the off-season? Lots of good arms, no place to put them all. Who are the keepers?
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Trade Deadline Outlook: New York Mets
A disappointing 2026 season is almost certainly resulting in a deadline sale for the Mets. They’re 15 games under .500 and have been one of the five worst teams in MLB for the past calendar year. It already resulted in a managerial change, but owner Steve Cohen says he has no plans to overhaul the front office.
The Mets made the most notable move of the early deadline season, flipping David Peterson to the Cubs for first base prospect Cole Mathis last week. They said that wasn’t the start of a deadline fire sale, but they’ve gone 2-5 since the trade. Peterson was an obvious first player to go — he’s an impending free agent whom the Mets tried to bump from their rotation twice this season. It’d take a miraculous July for them to avoid shipping more players out the door in a couple weeks.
As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored in a post for Front Office subscribers last month, they’re not exactly overflowing with high-end trade chips. A lot of the problems fall into one of two categories: veterans underperforming big contracts or young players who have regressed. There’s not going to be much interest in the former, and the Mets would need to weigh the possibility of selling low on players in the latter bucket. Even the Mets’ clearest “big” trade candidate is struggling through his worst season in six years.
Record: 36-51 (3.2% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)
Sell Mode
Potential impending Free Agents: Freddy Peralta, Clay Holmes (opt-out), Bo Bichette (opt-out), A.J. Minter, Brooks Raley, Tyrone Taylor
Peralta should be one of the deadline’s marquee trade chips. He’s an impending free agent playing on an $8MM salary who has been a top-of-the-rotation starter for the past few seasons. The Mets surrendered a couple borderline Top 100 prospects (Brandon Sproat, Jett Williams) to acquire him from Milwaukee in January. They weren’t going to recoup quite the same value at the deadline, but a standard Peralta season would have made him the top alternative to Tarik Skubal on the trade front.
If that’s still the case, it’s more by default than a reflection of his current form. Peralta has been rocked in three of his last five outings and has a 4.81 earned run average across 18 starts. His 21.8% strikeout rate is easily a personal low, essentially league average for the first time in his career. He’s having a tougher time missing bats in the strike zone and has had a difficult time turning lineups over a third time.
Peralta’s pre-2026 track record, affordability, and the sheer volume of pitching needs around the league mean he’ll still get a lot of attention on the trade front. As luxury tax payors, the Mets would only recoup a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he declines a qualifying offer and walks as a free agent. They’ll easily beat that minimal value in a trade, so he’s a near-lock to move this summer, but he’s not exactly elevating his stock each time he takes the ball.
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