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What Kind Of Contract Can Framber Valdez Command?

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We're a little over two months from the opening of free agency. Framber Valdez has probably established himself as the #1 pitcher. That's in part due to Dylan Cease's inconsistency and Michael King missing almost three months to a nerve-related shoulder injury. It's also a testimony to Valdez's consistency and incredible run of durability. It's not common for the top pitcher in a free agent year to be one entering his age-32 season. That should be the case this winter.

How does Valdez stack up against the top starting pitchers in previous free agent classes? MLBTR's Contract Tracker, available to Front Office subscribers, allows for direct comparisons. That makes it possible to project what kind of deal his camp should seek as he approaches the biggest payday of his career.

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MLB Mailbag: Kyle Tucker, Nick Lodolo, Bo Bichette, Rays, Mets

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This week's mailbag gets into the Cubs and Kyle Tucker, the Reds trading Nick Lodolo for a big bat this winter, Bo Bichette's contract, and offseason approaches for the Rays and Mets.

NE asks:

Do the Cubs and Kyle Tucker have any interest in an extension?

Tucker came out of the gates with a 157 wRC+ in 370 plate appearances through June.  That performance put him basically in a dead heat with fellow All-Star starter Pete Crow-Armstrong and Shohei Ohtani with 4 WAR, at which point all three players were in the NL MVP race.

Tucker jammed his right ring finger on a June 1st slide.  He continued to play well, but later revealed that "a week or two after that" x-rays found a hairline fracture.  The narrative around the injury remains confusing.

Tucker posted a 173 wRC+ in June, the best month of his season.  He homered on June 28th as part of a four-hit game.  Then he went on to hit just one home run over his next 172 PA.  So the idea is that Tucker played through this injury but it only began to sap his power four weeks later, perhaps due to some mechanical change to his swing.

By mid-August, Tucker was throwing his helmet, slamming his bat, failing to run out grounders, and getting booed by Cubs fans.  On August 18th, Cubs manager Craig Counsell announced the plan to give Tucker a mental reset on the bench.  The following day, Brewers manager Pat Murphy went on 670 The Score and said, "I think Tucker is hurt. I don't have any information, but Tucker's not the same. He's hurt, and he's playing through it. He's such a class kid that he probably doesn't mention it to anyone."

Murphy's comments caused the Cubs to fess up to Tucker playing through the hairline fracture.  It was just a very odd way for this to all go down: the injury that didn't manifest itself for four weeks, and the reveal coming from a rival team's manager who either made a really good guess or actually did have some information.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon! I'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to ask a question ahead of time if you like.
  • Hello! Let's get underway

small mouth bass

  • For 2026, could the Jays opt for slick middle infield - Gimenez + Clement - and go hard after Bregman to play 3rd (with Barger going to RF)?

Steve Adams

  • I don't see any reason the Jays wouldn't be on Bregman this offseason. He's a good fit for the roster, they have plenty of cash coming off the books, they'll be firmly in win-now mode, the cost won't be beyond their comfort level, etc.That said, I don't think that means you need to resign yourself to Gimenez/Clement up the middle. Second basemen generally aren't paid that richly in free agency. Gleyber Torres is probably going to be the top earner among this year's group, but I don't think he's going to get nine figures or anything. They could look for a bounceback from Luis Rengifo or look into trading for Brandon Lowe or Ozzie Albies. There are lots of paths to consider.

Unqualified Reds GM

  • Nick Lodolo for Jarren Duran. What/who else needs to be tossed in for this to happen?

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Anthony Franco

  • Hey everyone, hope you've enjoyed your week!
  • Have a bunch going on today so I need to keep this one at an hour

Olereb

  • Who do you see the Braves targeting to upgrade at ss, also do you see the Braves trying to rid themselves of Justin Profar?

Anthony Franco

  • Bichette would be uncharacteristic for them but they've got Iglesias and Ozuna coming off the books short term and there's a case they need to move off their usual operating procedure of prioritizing trades/extensions based on how poorly they've played this year
  • Albies doesn't look like a core piece anymore, so they'd be able to slide Bo over to second in a couple years if he can't stick at SS long term. Trade market at the position has been bad for a while. Sox would probably move Story to make room for Marcelo Mayer (eh), could try to get the Royals to give up Maikel Garcia but it'd take a lot
  • Profar's mashing since he's been back. They'd need a new left fielder if they trade him. I'm sure they're not happy with how things went down, but keeping him at 2/30 seems fine to me

Sam

  • What's the Twins' offseason ahead look like? Will it be frugal once again due to the Pohlads retaining ownership of the team, or will they decide to start spending again (a la Correa) to try to get back into contention?

Anthony Franco

  • I have a hard time seeing them kick up spending dramatically. Teams almost never follow up a massive teardown by throwing a bunch of money at it and trying again
  • I expect Ryan and Jeffers to go at least. Feels like they could hold Pablo into next season because of the injury impacting his trade value. Then backfill with a bunch of smaller deals in the bullpen (similar to last winter's Rangers approach) at catcher, and for a right-handed outfield bat
  • They brought back enough upper level talent, particularly in the rotation, that I could see a path to contention in 2027. Much harder for me to envision it next season

Brian

  • with Samuel Basallo now locked up long term, what are chances the O's trade Adley this offseason?

Anthony Franco

  • I don't think the Basallo extension moves the odds much. They had him under team control for six seasons and knew how good he was already
  • They can coexist with the DH but Rutschman's offensive decline has made it feel for a while that he's running out of time there. Guess I'd put the odds of an offseason trade at 55%? Feels like at least 75% chance he's dealt by the 2026-27 offseason

The best evah

  • Can you explain what makes Mackenzie Gore so attractive to MLB teams? Despite a higher K/9 this year compared to previous years (10.7), he has a career 4.01 ERA and (as far as I can tell) striking out half a batter more per nine seems to be the only thing he's improved in his game this year. To throw out another data point, Will Warren is a year younger and sporting a HR9/BB9/K9 of  1.0/3.9/10.1, compared to Gore's 1.2/3.4/10.7. Is Warren half a strikeout per nine away from being seen in a similar light to Gore?

Anthony Franco

  • I'm sure there are plenty of teams that really like Warren but Gore throws two MPH harder from the left side, and there's a huge gap in swinging strikes on a per-pitch basis. Gore's eighth among pitchers with 100+ IP with a 13.4% swinging strike rate. Warren is 69th at 9.5%
  • Warren gets a ton of called strikes, so they're pretty close in overall strikeout rate, but that's a little tougher to bank on year over year. Gore getting tons of whiffs with plus stuff from the left side feels like a higher upside play
  • Also feels like Gore's results are weighed down a little bit pitching in front of a Nationals infield that is by far the worst in MLB. It's a good shout though. Warren's good, just a tier down below Gore for me

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MLB Mailbag: Konnor Griffin, Extension Candidates, Realignment, Ketel Marte, Detmers

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This week's mailbag gets into extension possibilities, realignment problems, whether a Ketel Marte trade makes sense, Reid Detmers' future, and much more.

Greg asks:

With a good spring is there a possibility of the Pirates signing Konnor Griffin long-term and starting him on Day 1?

In Baseball America's August update, shortstop Konnor Griffin was ranked as the top prospect in all of baseball.  BA wrote, "Griffin has taken off like a meteor this season and his penchant for impact hasn’t slowed down even despite a promotion to High-A. The 19-year-old has made significant strides in allaying concerns about his hit tool and approach, and the rest of his overall game has evaluators buzzing as they envision how his plus power, speed and at least above-average defense at two different positions could come together."

Griffin has mostly played shortstop this year, with the occasional start in center field.  He posted a 156 wRC+ in A ball and got even better in High-A with a 169 mark.  Though he doesn't turn 20 until next April, Griffin got another promotion to Double-A this past weekend.

Given that Griffin has played one game in Double-A and the Altoona Curve only have 23 more on the schedule, putting him on the Pirates' Opening Day roster next year at age 19 would be aggressive, perhaps to the point of being detrimental.  Even Jackson Chourio played 122 games at Double-A and had a brief taste of Triple-A.  But let's explore the likelihood of an extension.

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Which Other Players Could End Up On Waivers This Month?

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The second half of August brings an uptick in waiver placements. Beyond the trade deadline, waivers are the only real option for player movement from one team to another. A few teams that were fringe contenders at the end of July know now that they're almost certainly going to miss the postseason. Placing veterans with semi-notable salaries on waivers gives them a chance to dump the final few weeks of a contract. Other teams aren't going to claim a terrible contract, but there's sometimes a balance where the player's salary is solid value but isn't of much use to a team that is going to miss the playoffs anyway.

This can take on added importance for teams that are right up against the luxury tax. The Angels kicked this practice into gear two years ago, offloading Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López and Matt Moore to slide narrowly below the CBT threshold. That at least allowed them to recoup a better draft pick when Shohei Ohtani walked in free agency. It's not only about tax avoidance, though. A lot of teams would welcome the opportunity just to cut a few hundred thousand dollars off the books in a losing season.

Within the past week, Rangers righty Jon Gray has already gone unclaimed on waivers. He was subsequently placed on the injured list due to thoracic outlet syndrome and will probably remain on the IL for the rest of the season. Marlins starter Cal Quantrill hit waivers within the past day or two; it's to be seen whether another team will pick up the approximate $734K that he's owed through season's end. Waiver placements that are not preceded by a DFA aren't publicly announced by teams. They're often leaked to reporters, but it's entirely possible there have already been a few notable names who have cleared or are on waivers that haven't gotten out.

The late-August timing isn't coincidental. Players must be in an organization by the start of September to be eligible for postseason play. Teams can still go the waiver route in September, but other clubs are less likely to place a claim next month because those players cannot help in the playoffs. Waiting until the end of August gives the current team as much time as possible to see where they're at in the standings. It also reduces the cost to a potential claiming team to around four weeks of salary, perhaps making someone more likely to place a claim at the end of the month than they would have been a few weeks ago (when the remaining salary would be around twice as high).

It's worth reiterating that the teams placing the player on waivers are hoping another team makes a claim. Sending a veteran through unclaimed has little to no benefit. Most of them have the five-plus service years to refuse a minor league assignment, so teams usually proceed as if nothing happened if the player goes unclaimed. They could place them back on waivers in a week or two to see if another club is more willing to bite because of the lower remaining salary and/or intervening injuries.

Which players could find themselves on waivers within the next 10 days? There's a clear team with which to start -- a club that bought at the deadline but has been in a free fall ever since while they sit right against the luxury line.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat: Today, 2pm CT

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Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon! I'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to send in questions ahead of time, as usual.
  • Greetings!
  • Let's begin

RAGBRAI

  • Does Gallen get a QO from AZ and if so does he take it? What would he get on the open market with a respectable ROS?

Steve Adams

  • They'll give him a QO. His decision probably hinges somewhat on how he finishes, though I expect him to decline it. Gallen feels like he's going to be the next relatively high-profile starting pitcher/Boras client to sign a two-year deal with an opt-out. If he finishes poorly enough, maybe he accepts or (more surprisingly) doesn't get a QO. But I think if the D-backs saw any real scenario where they wouldn't give him the qualifying offer, he'd have been traded in July.
  • Obviously, a major injury changes that calculus, but short of that, I'd be surprised if he doesn't get one.
  • If he accepts that, it's not the end of the world. They paid Jordan Montgomery $22MM not to throw a pitch for them in 2025. A similarly priced gamble on a Gallen rebound isn't a terrible bet.

Brad

  • How many major league free agent contracts have surplus value? I feel like the percentage is much lower than you think.

Steve Adams

  • By definition, very few of them are going to provide surplus value. Free agency is an auction, and most teams tap out of the bidding because they feel the price has exceeded the player's value. On some one-year deals or some mid-range free agent deals, you can find some bargains, but it's only natural for the weightier free-agent deals to come in to provide minimal surplus value -- if any at all.

JM

  • Why can a player stay under club control after he's released and granted free agency? For instance (if reports are correct), Nathaniel Lowe is a free agent and will sign today with the Red Sox, after the Nats DFAed and released him upon clearing waivers. But those same reports say the Sox will have a final arb year of club control in 2026 (though likely non-tender him anyway). Once a free agent (after a release or a non-tender), not always a free agent?

 

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The Braves’ Bleak Middle Infield Outlook

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Not long ago, everything seemed to be working for the Braves. They were a player development factory not only churning out quality big leaguer after quality big leaguer -- but frequently signing those players to long-term extensions. As recently as 2022, Atlanta had nearly an entirely homegrown roster full of stars who'd penned long-term deals. Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider burst onto the scene in '22, and Atlanta had Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr. all signed long-term. Harris and Strider joined the group midway through their rookie seasons.

There were some exceptions. Freddie Freeman had walked in free agency. By the end of the 2022 season, it increasingly seemed as though Swanson and Max Fried would follow suit. They eventually did, but with young infielders like Vaughn Grissom and Nacho Alvarez Jr. impressing in the minors, there was some hope on the horizon.

Much of that core remains in place, but there are far more questions on the roster now. There's no area where that's more true than in the middle infield. With the Braves seemingly facing a budget crunch this past offseason, they made a low-cost addition of defensive standout Nick Allen to hold things down at shortstop while hoping for a rebound from Albies after a pedestrian 2024 showing. It hasn't worked out all that well, particularly at second base, where Albies' struggles have mounted to the point that many fans would prefer to move on entirely -- despite what once appeared a pair of extraordinarily affordable $7MM club options on Albies' 2026 and 2027 seasons.

How will the Braves handle their middle infield situation moving forward? Let's look ahead to the offseason.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Darragh McDonald

  • Hello, subscribers.
  • Thank you, as always, for being so wonderful to us. It is greatly appreciated.
  • Anthony is off this week. Sorry you're stuck with me.
  • Let's talk baseball.

Arthur Dent

  • What’s your prediction on how things are going to shake out in the AL West?  Can the Stros tread water enough the rest of the season to take the division?

Darragh McDonald

  • It's obviously pretty tight but I would lean Seattle at the moment.
  • Houston has had so many injuries. They've somehow managed to win in spite of them, but it's possible there's a point where they run out of steam.
  • Seattle, on the other hand, made some nice deadline upgrades and has some juice.
  • Just a guess though. It could obviously go either way. Can't predict this sport. Baseball is dumb/amazing like that.

Wyatt Langford extension?

  • With Roman Anthony getting extended by the Red Sox, have you heard anything re: Chris Young looking into signing Wyatt Langford to a long term deal? I think this would be a great time to do it before he breaks out and before players like Acuña will be seeking new contracts. Thoughts? What would his deal look like?

Darragh McDonald

  • I haven't heard anything concrete but it would make sense for them to try. He's only going to get more expensive as he pushes towards free agency.
  • He'll have two years of service after this year. The top guys in that service class are Tatis and Witt, who got to $300ish.
  • Langford hasn't quite got to the superstar level of those guys, however.
  • He'd probably come in underneath them right now. But like I said, he'll get more expensive if he keeps playing well and pushing towards the open market.

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MLB Mailbag: Grisham, Elly De La Cruz, Brewers, Bregman

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This week's mailbag gets into a qualifying offer for Trent Grisham, the likelihood of the Reds signing Elly De La Cruz long-term, preseason projections consistently whiffing on the Brewers, how a lockout might affect free agency in 2026-27, what it might take to extend Alex Bregman, and much more.

Dmitry asks:

I keep seeing that the Yankees wont re-sign Trent Grisham. What is the downside to a QO? is 22 million for a 3 win CF in his prime on a one year deal really that bad?

Grisham, 29 in November, is on pace for a 2.8 WAR season in about 139 games.  He's missed some time on the paternity list and a few games due to a hamstring issue.

Grisham was widely seen as a non-tender candidate in the offseason, but instead accepted a $500K pay cut to land at $5MM on a pre-tender deal.  He had an 87 wRC+ from 2022-24 over 1,288 plate appearances.  Despite avoiding the IL in 2024, Grisham played in only 76 games for the Yankees, who had an outfield of Alex Verdugo, Aaron Judge, and Juan Soto.

Prior to this year, Grisham was more of a sub-2-WAR backup outfielder or bottom of the order regular who was not considered worthy of a $6MM salary.

The main wart on Grisham's season is that he's only hit like this (126 wRC+) once before, in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.  But Grisham has a career-low strikeout rate with career-best power, plus good Statcast metrics. Though he owes some of his success to a huge April, he's still managed a 113 wRC+ since.  The Yankees sat Grisham a fair bit against lefties last year, but not this year, and he's been tolerable against them.

Once one of the faster players in baseball, Grisham lost several steps in 2023 and now sits in the 33rd percentile for sprint speed.  That might partially explain why the two-time Gold Glover has a negative Outs Above Average mark for the first time in his career.  Defensive runs saved shows a similar story.

When it hasn't been Grisham in center field for the Yankees this year, it's been Cody Bellinger.  Bellinger figures to take a $5MM buyout over his final $25MM salary for 2026, meaning both outfielders will be free agents.  Assuming the Yankees don't want to give Harrison Bader another try, their main free agent alternative would be Cedric Mullins.  The trade market could feature Luis Robert Jr. and little else at center.

Internally, Spencer Jones would be the main option if both Bellinger and Grisham depart.  Jones, 25 in May, has torched both Double-A and Triple-A pitching this year, dropping his strikeout rate from 33.7% to 26.0% at the higher level.

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