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MLB Mailbag: Hoerner, Red Sox, Giolito, Gallen

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This week's mailbag gets into Nico Hoerner trade possibilities, whether top remaining free agents will go short or long-term, what's next for the Red Sox after Alex Bregman signed with the Cubs, where free agents such as Lucas Giolito and Zac Gallen might land, and much more.

Marc asks:

Well, Tom Ricketts proved me wrong. I never thought he’d pony up for a high dollar FA again. So, what now? I see all the rumors about Nico Hoerner but I think the Edward Cabrera trade and Alex Bregman signing are “all in” moves and moving Hoerner would weaken them (I think). Is there another move you think they could/ should still make?

I was surprised as well.  I didn't think the Cubs would substantially improve their offer to Bregman from a year prior.  But while Bregman is a year older, he was also free of the qualifying offer this time around.  The signing is also a reminder that each offseason is its own beast with unique variables.  What might have changed for the Cubs in 2025?  They saw increased regular season attendance, hosted five playoff games at Wrigley, and got a better feel for what Matt Shaw can do in the Majors.  They may have also grown more enamored of Bregman, who seemed to be adored by Boston's young players.

I would not make a blanket statement that the Cubs should not trade Hoerner this winter - it always depends on the return.  But certainly the Cubs should not trade Hoerner if it makes them worse in 2026.

I haven't found a Cubs fan online who wants to trade Hoerner.  But I will play devil's advocate for a minute.

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The Braves Need To Make A Rotation Splash

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The Braves have been aggressive this offseason, signing four free agents (Raisel Iglesias, Ha-Seong Kim, Robert Suarez and Mike Yastrzemski) to deals that pay eight figures annually. They also bolstered their infield depth with the Mauricio Dubón trade, taking on nearly $5MM for the difference in arbitration salaries between Dubón and Nick Allen.

Their free agent activity has already been out of character compared to Alex Anthopolous' previous offseasons. They love to re-sign their players, so it wasn't a huge surprise they brought Kim and Iglesias back, yet they hadn't given out more than one free agent deal with a $10MM+ annual value in an offseason since 2020. Their four such contracts this offseason are more than they'd dished out in the previous four winters combined.

It's still not enough. They've ticked off shortstop and late-inning relief. Those were indeed key needs, but neither was as worrisome as the rotation. Injuries exposed Atlanta's lack of starting pitching depth in 2025. They haven't done anything to address that thus far, and they should be as motivated as any team in MLB to add a mid-rotation arm before Opening Day.

The Braves will enter the season with a rotation that'd line up as Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider, Hurston Waldrep and one of Reynaldo López or Grant Holmes. If they could push a "turn off injuries" button, they'd be in excellent shape. Every team wishes they could keep pitchers healthy, of course, but the Braves look particularly vulnerable. AJ Smith-Shawver underwent Tommy John surgery in June and isn't coming back until the second half at the earliest. Their other six starters have limited track records or durability questions, and no one behind that group should be starting games at the MLB level.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon! I'll get going around 3pm CT, give or take a couple minutes.  Feel free to ask questions ahead of time, as always! Looking forward to another chat.
  • Hello! Let's get underway!

Rangers13

  • With the Soderstrom extension as a comp, what would a Wyatt Langford extension look like?

Steve Adams

  • Both 24-year-old OFs with 2+ years of service and four to go until free agency. I would think a Langfor deal looks relatively similar, though I can see his camp pushing for a bit more since he'd likely have had a larger starting point in arbitration; he's been a productive all-around hitter for two seasons now, while Soderstrom took a few to get there and thus had a weaker pre-arb platform. I don't think the gap should be immense, though.

Guards4Life

  • Noah Cameron or Cade Horton. Who are you building a rotation around?

Steve Adams

  • I suppose it depends on the context of the rest of this mystery new team I'm starting, haha. What's my payroll?! :)I would take Horton over Cameron in a bubble. I think he has a higher ceiling based on the stuff, but Cameron probably has better command and a higher floor. If you told me: "One of these two is going to be a rock solid No. 4 starter for the next four to five years and the other will end up in the bullpen," I would assume it's Cameron the SP and Horton in the 'pen.

    That said, I also think Horton has the better chance at pitching like a true No. 2-3 starter over a longer period. I'd probably go with him, but if you preferred a more certain, bankable source of innings and felt Cameron was the preferable route, it's defensible enough.

Brewers Fan

  • Last night Mark said even after the Cabrera and Bregman deals he's not sure he'd pick the Cubs over the Brewers. You agree? Think the brewers need to make a move to keep pace or are okay standing pat?

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Anthony Franco

  • Good afternoon everyone, hope you've enjoyed your week! Steve's off today and it's been pretty busy so I'll probably have to keep this one around an hour

Pudge

  • What is Detroit thinking?? Vladdy's final year of Arb was 28Mil. 30 is closer than 19.

Anthony Franco

  • Covered this in more detail in the Skubal writeup itself but the $19M is way closer to the precedent we've seen for starting pitchers than $32M -- both in terms of max value and raise relative to the previous season
  • Skubal's trying to get a $22M raise, which is unheard of in arbitration. I understand why he's trying to do this -- both in terms of wanting to be valued as a top five player in MLB, which he is -- and to break the ceiling that arbitrators have put on starters

ThePhillyPope

  • The Phils don't seem to be "in" on any starting pitching this off season. IMO the rotation after Sanchez & Luzardo is very suspect. Nola is average at best, Walker is worse, Painter is unproven, and we have zero idea how/if Wheeler will come back from his surgery. What are your thoughts?

Anthony Franco

  • The budget isn't infinite and they were right to make Schwarber the priority. I'd still like to see them add a swingman (or give Keller a rotation opportunity, but it seems they closed the door on that right away) but I'm alright with the rotation for the moment
  • If Painter continues to struggle and/or Wheeler comes back shaky, it becomes the priority at the deadline. I think they're talented enough both at the top end and in the lineup that they can give it a few months to see how things shake out

MetsFan

  • Has your projection for Kyle Tucker changed since the beginning of the offseason? I know you guys originally predicted 400/11, curious if that's changed since he's still unsigned so close to spring training.

Anthony Franco

  • I'd probably drop into the 350-375 range at this point. Tim Dierkes was there the whole time and deferred to Steve, Darragh and myself in agreeing to 400. Still would be surprised if we're looking at three or four with opt-outs though

jrizz1e

  • does the diamond sports group news from yesterday put the market on any sort of hold?

Anthony Franco

  • Doubt it matters much at the top end since it's mostly mid-market teams that are fighting the TV stuff. Could see it trickling down a little more to the mid-tier guys, though they're the ones who get the hit the hardest for remaining unsigned close to Spring Training anyway
  • I wonder a little bit about the Angels though. They feel like they should've been involved on Suárez (Ranger and Geno, really), Gallen, etc. and a dark horse on Belli. This could be Arte Moreno's excuse to do essentially nothing

Kay

  • Rob Manfred HAS to know that a free agency deadline is a non-starter, right??

Anthony Franco

  • Yeah I can't imagine the PA's agreeing to that. Players resoundingly hate it
  • It's just an opportunity for Manfred to frame it publicly as something he wants that'd be exciting for the sport, and I'm sure there are plenty of fans who agree with that, though his primary motivation (which he leaves unsaid) is cost suppression

Brian

  • Is bellinger worth 30 million a year?

Anthony Franco

  • For the Yankees or Mets on a four-year deal? Sure. For six or seven? Pass

Dana Brown

  • Would Abreu and Blubaugh be enough for Cowser from Orioles?

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The Best Fits For Cody Bellinger

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The top of the free agent position player market has not moved as quickly as it did in the previous couple offseasons. Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman and Cody Bellinger remain unsigned.

That's not a huge surprise for the latter two hitters given the Boras Corporation's general willingness to wait deeper into the offseason if strong deals don't immediately materialize. Tucker and Bichette, the two best free agents, are respectively represented by Excel Sports Management and Vayner Sports. The slow offseason can't entirely be attributed to Boras. It's possible that Bellinger is waiting on Tucker while Bregman awaits resolution on the Bichette landing spot. There's a decent amount of overlap, especially among a handful of big-market franchises that have been relatively quiet in free agency thus far, in those respective markets.

Bellinger is a free agent for the third time in the past four years. He's hoping to finally command the long-term contract that alluded him in the two prior trips. He was always going to be limited to a one-year pillow deal in 2022 after consecutive down seasons led the Dodgers to non-tender him. A resurgent '23 campaign with the Cubs didn't lead teams to buy into him as a franchise altering addition. He returned to Chicago on a three-year deal with opt-outs, then was traded to the Yankees after an underwhelming 2024 campaign.

The long speculated connection worked beautifully. Bellinger's left-handed bat played very well at Yankee Stadium. He hit 29 home runs, his highest total in six years, while batting .272/.334/.480 across 656 plate appearances. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued him around five wins above replacement.

Teams could still quibble with some of his underlying splits. Bellinger was a league average hitter away from the short porch in the Bronx. His batted ball metrics remained middle of the pack, and his results outpaced his "expected" statistics from Statcast for a third straight season. The average batted ball data was a stumbling block for teams in prior offseasons -- both in his '23 free agent trip, and when the Cubs were shopping him last winter.

Will a third straight season of overperformance lead teams to conclude that Bellinger's plus contact skills outweigh the exit velocity concerns? He's one of the best left-on-left hitters in MLB, batting .329/.371/.546 against southpaws over the past three seasons. The average left-handed batter (.230/.299/.365) hits like Marcus Semien or Otto Lopez when he doesn't hold the platoon advantage.

Bellinger isn't attached to draft compensation because he was ineligible for the qualifying offer. His camp will surely look to play up the narrative that he has proven himself in three major markets over the course of his career. A five- or six-year contract seems like the median outcome for the 30-year-old former MVP. Jon Morosi of The MLB Network suggested on Wednesday that his camp may be looking for seven years.

Where might he end up?

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MLB Mailbag: Dodgers, Reds, Marlins, Casas, Mets

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This week's Front Office mailbag gets into the Dodgers adding a top free agent, Boston's offer to Alex Bregman as well as the Triston Casas situation, which bats the Reds could add, what's next for the Marlins and Mets, and much more.

William asks:

Any substance to the rumor that Bichette is signing with the Dodgers? How would that affect their tax? And who might they trade away?

Ron asks:

The Dodgers seem set for 2026 and beyond. They have young starting pitchers coming along and younger outfielders on the way. Left field and third base are the positions that might need tweaking this year or next. Could they grab the 2 best F.A.'s still available?

On January 1st, Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote that the Dodgers (and Yankees and Cubs) "checked on" Bichette.  That's all Heyman gave us in that article - no further context.  Two days later in a tweet, Heyman added the Phillies to the list of teams that "have interest," beyond the well-known Blue Jays and Red Sox.

With all due respect to Heyman, that Dodgers-Bichette connection is pretty thin.  It'd almost be irresponsible for a big market team not to "check on" a quality player like Bichette as his free agency drags into the new year, especially a club with room for improvement in the infield.  We have no idea if anything more than due diligence has occurred between Bichette's camp and some of these clubs.

I hope we get better info, but GMs cannot shoot down free agent interest publicly, so if some of this is overstated we might not learn until after Bichette signs.

In late November, MLBTR's Anthony Franco included the Dodgers as a "plausible/on-paper dark horse" for Bichette, writing:

"There hasn’t been much in the way of Dodgers/Bichette smoke so far. This would feel a bit like overkill, but the Dodgers don’t have anyone locked in at second base. Their farm system is loaded with outfield talent but not as strong in the middle infield aside from Alex Freeland. Locking Bichette in at second would require them to play Tommy Edman mostly in center field coming off ankle surgery."

On Monday, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote, "Dodgers people like to say that Andrew Friedman’s preferred method of operation is 'hanging around the backboard.' If a player’s price in trade or free agency drops, the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations will attempt to grab him on the rebound and dunk on the industry yet again."

Friedman has had the Dodgers' top front office job for more than 11 years now, so we should have evidence of him "hanging around the backboard" and snatching up some top free agents whose market disappointed.  Below is what I found, which should help us determine whether the Dodgers might swoop in on Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette:

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The Best Fits For A Ketel Marte Trade

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Star Diamondbacks infielder Ketel Marte has dominated trade rumblings over the past month-plus. Despite frequently stating that he doesn't consider a trade likely, general manager Mike Hazen has been hammered by calls from opposing teams hoping to pry the All-Star slugger away from Arizona.

Marte is enough of a known commodity that we needn't run through an extensive breakdown of his résumé here, but it bears spelling out some of the basics. The three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger winner has steadily produced anywhere from above-average to elite offense dating back to 2018. He's a switch-hitter who touts a massive .283/.368/.519 slash (140 wRC+) over the past three seasons. Marte is a superstar talent who's signed to a contract more commensurate with a freshly extended arbitration player. He's owed $102.5MM over the next six seasons, with the final year of that being an $11.5MM player option. He'll be paid $15MM in 2026, $12MM in 2027, $20MM in 2028 and $22MM in 2029-30.

Arizona has reportedly been seeking multiple major league-ready starting pitchers to even consider parting with Marte. Specifically, they're targeting controllable arms who can be long-term cogs in the starting staff. They reportedly talked with the Rays about a deal including both Ryan Pepiot and Shane Baz before the latter was traded to Baltimore, for instance.

Hazen has been relatively open about listening to offers and his reluctance to actually move Marte throughout the winter. He indicated last week that one way or another, he'd like to wrap up this situation soon. That was understandably viewed by many as something of a call for best and final offers.

With resolution on the situation seemingly nigh, one way or another, it feels worth running through the league to find the best fits for Marte, some viable dark-horse spots, and also lay out the clubs that don't feel like they'll be much of a factor at all. Let's run through it all.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Happy 2026!
  • Yeah, that's going to feel weird for awhile.
  • I'll get going at 3pm CT today, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time, as always. Hope the holidays have treated everyone well thus far!
  • Hello all! Sorry for the delay
  • Lets get underway!

Bo Knows Okamoto

  • Am I now the odd man out in Toronto?

Steve Adams

  • It's more crowded, but  no, I don't take the Okamoto signing as any kind of surefire sign he's gone, no. They still have Ernie Clement atop their depth chart at second base, and Clement is at best a glove-first, league-average hitter and more likely a glove-first utility player.There's plenty of space to get both Bichette and Okamoto near-regular playing time, especially since Okamoto could spend some time at first and/or DH, while Bichette  could play some SS if Gimenez goes down with any sort of injury.

Chaim Bloom

  • Im resigned to the fact that Ill need to absorb another team's bad contract in order to move Nolan Arenado.  As long as the player attached to said contract is (A) playable in my outfield or (B) tradable, Im good with that. Right now I have the Angels and Jorge Soler is a good fit, and I think the Phillies might be willing to move Alec Bohm and let Nolan  play third if I take Nick Castellanos.  Both teams want me to throw in 5-10 million dollars because they know I'm slightly more desperate that they are...

Steve Adams

  • I just don't think it makes sense for the Cardinals to take back another pricey veteran. Part of the thinking in dumping Arenado is opening time for younger players. Castellanos is every bit as untradeable. I suppose they could just release the player they take back.I think the Cardinals will eventually trade Arenado by just paying like $30MM+ of what's left on the contract, though.

Dave

  • Would Tucker sign with LAD for 5 years $250 million with three opt out years?

Steve Adams

  • The Dodgers are in the top penalty bracket for the luxury tax already, and that setup would cost them $55MM in taxes annually, plus Tucker's salary. If we distribute the 250 evenly over five years, it's $105MM per year. Even for the Dodgers, that seems steep

Guest

  • Just letting you know I’m accessing this while beta testing the app.  App looks great!

Steve Adams

  • Love it! Thanks for helping out!

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Anthony Franco

  • Good afternoon, hope you've all had a good holiday season!
  • Lots in the queue today, let's get rolling

Natitude Dude

  • Is M Gore getting dealt this off-season? If so, what kind of return can be expected after the Baz deal?

Anthony Franco

  • I still think he'll get moved this offseason. Would expect a better headliner than Tampa Bay got in the Baz trade and a slightly stronger package overall. Think Gore's more valuable despite Baz have the extra year of arbitration control

KerryFam4

  • We’ve now had two Japanese players sign short term deals with opt-outs at lower than expected rates.  Do you think that will impact the remaining unsigned Japanese player(s)?  Should we read anything from that into the markets for Tucker, Bichette, Bregman, Valdez, etc?

Anthony Franco

  • Not reading a whole lot into it. Seems more that MLB teams didn't think Murakami or Imai are particularly good
  • If all the top free agents are still unsigned two or three weeks from now, I'd come more around to the idea that of shorter-term contracts with outs for them

gavin

  • should the padres trade pivetta to the cubs/mets/yankees for prospects and sign basset or giolito?

Anthony Franco

  • I think it's too cute. Pivetta's just much better than those guys and the rotation is pretty weak beyond the top three. I understand the concern about potentially losing Pivetta and King next offseason, but the Padres are almost always operating in some kind of chaos like that because they overpaid Bogaerts, Darvish and Cronenworth

Guest

  • In your opinion, which outlet is the best for prospect coverage? Is there one you guys typically use?

Anthony Franco

  • Baseball America's the gold standard for me, but there's obviously a lot of good work out there and value in getting different outlets' opinions on players. We'll reference BA, FanGraphs, Kiley McDaniel's work at ESPN, Keith Law at The Athletic and MLB Pipeline

Arise, Sir Loin of Beef

  • Are there any upper tier OFs available in a trade this year?

Anthony Franco

  • It's not great, especially if Boston holds everybody. Donovan could kind of fit that description even though he's more impactful at second base and/or bouncing around the infield. We've seen that kind of ceiling from Robert and Nootbaar before but not recently
  • I think it's more likely to come available at the deadline. Red Sox are pretty well positioned on the pitching staff now but injuries could change that by the summer. If Cleveland struggles, Kwan should go in July. Maybe Minnesota reevaluates on Buxton and their top starters at that point if their half-in hope of competing this year blows up

A's or Marlins?

  • Between the A's and Marlins, which team do you believe is in a stronger position to compete for a wild card spot this season?

Anthony Franco

  • I'd take Miami's roster right now but that probably flips if the A's add a mid-rotation caliber starter. Still think they're both long shots but more realistic dark horses than they've been entering any of the past couple seasons

Confused

  • Why is Brendan Donovan so highly-sought after? Minimal power and he doesn’t have the .300 batting average to offset that?

Anthony Franco

  • Almost no one hits .300 anymore. There were seven qualified hitters who have done that in each of the past two seasons. Donovan's a reliable bet to hit .280 with an OBP above .350. Not huge power but enough for double-digit homers and 30 doubles
  • It's really tough to find players who do that while playing up the middle. The league average second baseman last year hit .243/.310/.371

Chris

  • Who is one player you think could possibly be traded this offseason who has not been speculated in trade discussions?

Anthony Franco

  • Still think the Giants should trade Robbie Ray to clear $25M next year for a move at second base or in right field

Giacomo Puccini

  • Who’s the best active player not to win an MVP?

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The Best Fits For Tatsuya Imai

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Decision time nears for Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai. He needs to finalize a contract with an MLB team by Friday at 4:00 pm Central if he's to make the move stateside this year. There's no indication that he's considering sticking with the Seibu Lions, meaning an agreement should be imminent. While there's a little over 48 hours to make the deal official, Imai must agree to terms with enough margin to complete a standard physical.

The 27-year-old (28 in May) is conducting in-person meetings with interested teams in Los Angeles this week. The 5’11” righty has been one of Japan’s best pitchers over the past two seasons. He’s coming off a 1.92 ERA showing with 178 strikeouts across 163 2/3 innings. Imai has an NPB-best 27% strikeout rate since the start of 2024. He sits in the mid-90s with a promising slider. Command was an issue earlier in his career, but his strike-throwing has progressed as he has gained experience. This past season’s 7% walk rate was a personal low and better than the MLB average.

Whichever team that signs Imai will owe a release fee to the Lions. That’s proportional to the contract value: 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of all further spending. Imai isn't expected to come close to the $325MM deal that Yoshinobu Yamamoto commanded two offseasons ago. He's a few years older and simply not as good. Yet it's generally believed that he'll command a nine-figure guarantee, perhaps into the $150MM range, from a team that feels he's a mid-rotation arm.

Which clubs are best positioned to make that investment? Salary projections are courtesy of RosterResource.

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