Front Office Originals

Steve Adams

• Good afternoon! I'll get going around 3pm CT, give or take a couple minutes.  Feel free to ask questions ahead of time, as always! Looking forward to another chat.
• Hello! Let's get underway!

Rangers13

• With the Soderstrom extension as a comp, what would a Wyatt Langford extension look like?

Steve Adams

• Both 24-year-old OFs with 2+ years of service and four to go until free agency. I would think a Langfor deal looks relatively similar, though I can see his camp pushing for a bit more since he'd likely have had a larger starting point in arbitration; he's been a productive all-around hitter for two seasons now, while Soderstrom took a few to get there and thus had a weaker pre-arb platform. I don't think the gap should be immense, though.

Guards4Life

• Noah Cameron or Cade Horton. Who are you building a rotation around?

Steve Adams

• I suppose it depends on the context of the rest of this mystery new team I'm starting, haha. What's my payroll?! :)I would take Horton over Cameron in a bubble. I think he has a higher ceiling based on the stuff, but Cameron probably has better command and a higher floor. If you told me: "One of these two is going to be a rock solid No. 4 starter for the next four to five years and the other will end up in the bullpen," I would assume it's Cameron the SP and Horton in the 'pen.

  That said, I also think Horton has the better chance at pitching like a true No. 2-3 starter over a longer period. I'd probably go with him, but if you preferred a more certain, bankable source of innings and felt Cameron was the preferable route, it's defensible enough.

Brewers Fan

• Last night Mark said even after the Cabrera and Bregman deals he's not sure he'd pick the Cubs over the Brewers. You agree? Think the brewers need to make a move to keep pace or are okay standing pat?

• Good afternoon everyone, hope you've enjoyed your week! Steve's off today and it's been pretty busy so I'll probably have to keep this one around an hour

Pudge

• What is Detroit thinking?? Vladdy's final year of Arb was 28Mil. 30 is closer than 19.

Anthony Franco

• Covered this in more detail in the Skubal writeup itself but the $19M is way closer to the precedent we've seen for starting pitchers than $32M -- both in terms of max value and raise relative to the previous season
• Skubal's trying to get a $22M raise, which is unheard of in arbitration. I understand why he's trying to do this -- both in terms of wanting to be valued as a top five player in MLB, which he is -- and to break the ceiling that arbitrators have put on starters

ThePhillyPope

• The Phils don't seem to be "in" on any starting pitching this off season. IMO the rotation after Sanchez & Luzardo is very suspect. Nola is average at best, Walker is worse, Painter is unproven, and we have zero idea how/if Wheeler will come back from his surgery. What are your thoughts?

Anthony Franco

• The budget isn't infinite and they were right to make Schwarber the priority. I'd still like to see them add a swingman (or give Keller a rotation opportunity, but it seems they closed the door on that right away) but I'm alright with the rotation for the moment
• If Painter continues to struggle and/or Wheeler comes back shaky, it becomes the priority at the deadline. I think they're talented enough both at the top end and in the lineup that they can give it a few months to see how things shake out

MetsFan

• Has your projection for Kyle Tucker changed since the beginning of the offseason? I know you guys originally predicted 400/11, curious if that's changed since he's still unsigned so close to spring training.

Anthony Franco

• I'd probably drop into the 350-375 range at this point. Tim Dierkes was there the whole time and deferred to Steve, Darragh and myself in agreeing to 400. Still would be surprised if we're looking at three or four with opt-outs though

jrizz1e

• does the diamond sports group news from yesterday put the market on any sort of hold?

Anthony Franco

• Doubt it matters much at the top end since it's mostly mid-market teams that are fighting the TV stuff. Could see it trickling down a little more to the mid-tier guys, though they're the ones who get the hit the hardest for remaining unsigned close to Spring Training anyway
• I wonder a little bit about the Angels though. They feel like they should've been involved on Suárez (Ranger and Geno, really), Gallen, etc. and a dark horse on Belli. This could be Arte Moreno's excuse to do essentially nothing

Kay

• Rob Manfred HAS to know that a free agency deadline is a non-starter, right??

Anthony Franco

• Yeah I can't imagine the PA's agreeing to that. Players resoundingly hate it
• It's just an opportunity for Manfred to frame it publicly as something he wants that'd be exciting for the sport, and I'm sure there are plenty of fans who agree with that, though his primary motivation (which he leaves unsaid) is cost suppression

Brian

• Is bellinger worth 30 million a year?

Anthony Franco

• For the Yankees or Mets on a four-year deal? Sure. For six or seven? Pass

Dana Brown

• Would Abreu and Blubaugh be enough for Cowser from Orioles?
• 

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Steve Adams

• Happy 2026!
• Yeah, that's going to feel weird for awhile.
• I'll get going at 3pm CT today, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time, as always. Hope the holidays have treated everyone well thus far!
• Hello all! Sorry for the delay
• Lets get underway!

Bo Knows Okamoto

• Am I now the odd man out in Toronto?

Steve Adams

• It's more crowded, but  no, I don't take the Okamoto signing as any kind of surefire sign he's gone, no. They still have Ernie Clement atop their depth chart at second base, and Clement is at best a glove-first, league-average hitter and more likely a glove-first utility player.There's plenty of space to get both Bichette and Okamoto near-regular playing time, especially since Okamoto could spend some time at first and/or DH, while Bichette  could play some SS if Gimenez goes down with any sort of injury.

Chaim Bloom

• Im resigned to the fact that Ill need to absorb another team's bad contract in order to move Nolan Arenado.  As long as the player attached to said contract is (A) playable in my outfield or (B) tradable, Im good with that. Right now I have the Angels and Jorge Soler is a good fit, and I think the Phillies might be willing to move Alec Bohm and let Nolan  play third if I take Nick Castellanos.  Both teams want me to throw in 5-10 million dollars because they know I'm slightly more desperate that they are...

Steve Adams

• I just don't think it makes sense for the Cardinals to take back another pricey veteran. Part of the thinking in dumping Arenado is opening time for younger players. Castellanos is every bit as untradeable. I suppose they could just release the player they take back.I think the Cardinals will eventually trade Arenado by just paying like $30MM+ of what's left on the contract, though.

Dave

• Would Tucker sign with LAD for 5 years $250 million with three opt out years?

Steve Adams

• The Dodgers are in the top penalty bracket for the luxury tax already, and that setup would cost them $55MM in taxes annually, plus Tucker's salary. If we distribute the 250 evenly over five years, it's $105MM per year. Even for the Dodgers, that seems steep

Guest

• Just letting you know I’m accessing this while beta testing the app.  App looks great!

Steve Adams

• Love it! Thanks for helping out!

Anthony Franco

• Good afternoon, hope you've all had a good holiday season!
• Lots in the queue today, let's get rolling

Natitude Dude

• Is M Gore getting dealt this off-season? If so, what kind of return can be expected after the Baz deal?

Anthony Franco

• I still think he'll get moved this offseason. Would expect a better headliner than Tampa Bay got in the Baz trade and a slightly stronger package overall. Think Gore's more valuable despite Baz have the extra year of arbitration control

KerryFam4

• We’ve now had two Japanese players sign short term deals with opt-outs at lower than expected rates.  Do you think that will impact the remaining unsigned Japanese player(s)?  Should we read anything from that into the markets for Tucker, Bichette, Bregman, Valdez, etc?

Anthony Franco

• Not reading a whole lot into it. Seems more that MLB teams didn't think Murakami or Imai are particularly good
• If all the top free agents are still unsigned two or three weeks from now, I'd come more around to the idea that of shorter-term contracts with outs for them

gavin

• should the padres trade pivetta to the cubs/mets/yankees for prospects and sign basset or giolito?

Anthony Franco

• I think it's too cute. Pivetta's just much better than those guys and the rotation is pretty weak beyond the top three. I understand the concern about potentially losing Pivetta and King next offseason, but the Padres are almost always operating in some kind of chaos like that because they overpaid Bogaerts, Darvish and Cronenworth

Guest

• In your opinion, which outlet is the best for prospect coverage? Is there one you guys typically use?

Anthony Franco

• Baseball America's the gold standard for me, but there's obviously a lot of good work out there and value in getting different outlets' opinions on players. We'll reference BA, FanGraphs, Kiley McDaniel's work at ESPN, Keith Law at The Athletic and MLB Pipeline

Arise, Sir Loin of Beef

• Are there any upper tier OFs available in a trade this year?

Anthony Franco

• It's not great, especially if Boston holds everybody. Donovan could kind of fit that description even though he's more impactful at second base and/or bouncing around the infield. We've seen that kind of ceiling from Robert and Nootbaar before but not recently
• I think it's more likely to come available at the deadline. Red Sox are pretty well positioned on the pitching staff now but injuries could change that by the summer. If Cleveland struggles, Kwan should go in July. Maybe Minnesota reevaluates on Buxton and their top starters at that point if their half-in hope of competing this year blows up

A's or Marlins?

• Between the A's and Marlins, which team do you believe is in a stronger position to compete for a wild card spot this season?

Anthony Franco

• I'd take Miami's roster right now but that probably flips if the A's add a mid-rotation caliber starter. Still think they're both long shots but more realistic dark horses than they've been entering any of the past couple seasons

Confused

• Why is Brendan Donovan so highly-sought after? Minimal power and he doesn’t have the .300 batting average to offset that?

Anthony Franco

• Almost no one hits .300 anymore. There were seven qualified hitters who have done that in each of the past two seasons. Donovan's a reliable bet to hit .280 with an OBP above .350. Not huge power but enough for double-digit homers and 30 doubles
• It's really tough to find players who do that while playing up the middle. The league average second baseman last year hit .243/.310/.371

Chris

• Who is one player you think could possibly be traded this offseason who has not been speculated in trade discussions?

Anthony Franco

• Still think the Giants should trade Robbie Ray to clear $25M next year for a move at second base or in right field

Giacomo Puccini

• Who’s the best active player not to win an MVP?
• 

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Steve Adams

• Final Front Office chat of 2025! Hope the holiday season has been treating everyone well. As always, feel free to ask a question about any of the remaining free agents, possible trade scenarios, team outlooks and whatever other Hot Stove-related topics (or, frankly, other topics!) are on your mind!I'll get going at about 1:30pm CT. Looking forward to i!
• Let's get underway!

Drake

• What are your thoughts on the Soderstrom extension? I like it overall and hopeful the A’s can get at least one more of their core locked up too

Steve Adams

• I'm a big Soderstrom backer, so for me, getting the deal done and buying out at least three free agent years for a sub-100 guarantee is a move well worth making. That's not to say Soderstrom sold himself short. A year ago, he looked like a fringe contributor, and now he's signed the eighth-largest extension of any player ever for his service class. Most of the guys ahead of him (Tatis, Witt, Posey, Trout, Yordan, Bregman) were already superstars when they put pen to paper.It's a good move all around. Soderstrom is definitely a guy I'd look to build around, particularly with how well he took to LF.

jrizz1e

• biggest player traded between now and start of spring training?

Steve Adams

• I don't know if Brendan Donovan counts as a "big-name" player among most MLB fans, but he's a big name for front offices and I think it's far likelier than not that he ends up traded.

Ben Cherrington

• Can either ROH or Horowitz play 3B ? Meintakwicz(sp?) did this on the steel city a few years back.

Steve Adams

• Doug Mientkiewicz played 33 games (30 starts) at 3B for the Pirates in the late 2000s and, as one would expect for a 34-year-old first baseman making that move for the first time, graded out terribly.
• The Jays gave Horwitz 250ish innings at 2B, and he didn't fare all that well there. O'Hearn isn't playing 3B.
• I think you'll just see the two split time at DH and 1B. O'Hearn could see some OF time, depending on injuries elsewhere on the roster.

JL

• If the Os are serious about a TOR arm, is Eflin taking Kremers place in the rotation?  What is Dean Kremers trade value?

Steve Adams

• They wouldn't move on from Kremer even if they add an Imai, Valdez, Suarez, etc.Kyle Bradish only pitched 54 innings between the minors and MLB last year. Eflin himself was under 90 IP. Injuries are an inevitability. We don't even firmly know when Eflin will be healthy enough to take the mound in a big league game.Bringing him back at $10MM was a relatively reasonably priced depth move with a decent bit of upside. Any big league team is going to need far more than five starters to get through a season. The O's will probably have 7-8 guys start 10+ games next season. The rotation will sort itself out.

Foley

• As good as Logan Gilbert is the Mariners should consider trading him, realistically they won’t have the money to sign him and with two years of control they should get a haul that could help now and later