Where Can The Guardians Spend The Money Saved On The Ramírez Deal?
The Guardians hammered out their third extension with José Ramírez over the weekend. While the team still hasn't announced the contract as of Wednesday evening, it reportedly runs through his age-39 season. It more or less confirms that Ramírez will be a one-team superstar, but the biggest impact in the short term is that it involved a restructure to give the team some spending room.
Ramírez will reportedly be paid $25MM annually over the next seven seasons. $10MM of each season's salary is deferred until 2036. He'd been slated for a non-deferred $21MM salary this season. They saved $6MM against the 2026 payroll and $8MM and $10MM, respectively, over the following two years.
Any mention of the Guardians spending money is going to be met with sarcasm and skepticism. That's warranted given their usual spending habits, but this year's payroll would be extreme even by their standards. There'll almost certainly be a notable acquisition or two before Opening Day.
Cleveland has 12 players, including their arbitration class, signed for the upcoming season. Their salaries break down as follows:
- Ramírez: $25MM ($10MM deferred)
- Steven Kwan: $7.725MM
- Emmanuel Clase: $6MM
- Shawn Armstrong: $5.5MM (including option buyout)
- Trevor Stephan: $4.75MM (including option buyout)
- Tanner Bibee: $4MM
- Austin Hedges: $4MM
- Nolan Jones: $2MM
- Colin Holderman: $1.5MM
- David Fry: $1.375MM
- Matt Festa: $1MM
- Connor Brogdon: $900K
They'll also pay the Blue Jays $2.75MM as a condition of the Myles Straw trade. It's a total of $66.5MM in commitments, and even that dramatically overstates how much they'll actually spend. Ramírez is being paid $15MM this year, dropping their short-term obligations to $56.5MM.
There's also a strong chance they don't wind up paying anything to Clase. His criminal trial for alleged game-fixing won't begin until May, but it's possible MLB imposes its own discipline before the start of the season. It'd be a shock if the star reliever played another MLB game and Cleveland brass will obviously hope for the league to level a suspension that gets them off the hook for next year's salary.
If that happens, they'll be down to $50.5MM in guaranteed commitments. Filling out the roster with players on near league minimum salaries would push them into the $63-65MM range. According to The Associated Press, the Marlins were the only team with a season-opening payroll below $74.9MM last year. Cleveland ranked 25th in MLB with a $102.5MM mark.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! Hope the weekend treated everyone well. I will get going in a couple hours, at 3pm CT, but feel free to send in some questions ahead of time if you are so inclined!
- Let's get going!
Mr Redlegs
- What's the restriction on when you can trade a newly signed player? e.g. if the White Sox wanted, could they assume Seranthony Dominguez salary and trade him for a prospect now verses waiting until the deadline?
Steve Adams
- Any player signing as a free agent cannot be traded until the following June 15 unless he consents to it.
Amazins
- Do you see Peralta sigining extension with Mets? How much would get it done?
Steve Adams
- I assume they'll try to extend him, yes. David Stearns has shown pretty definitively that he prefers to eschew long-term commitments, particularly to pitchers. He knows Peralta well from Milwaukee and knows Peralta has signed one deal prioritizing comfort and security over maxing out on the open market.I imagine they'll aim for something like four years total (beginning in 2027, since he's already signed for 2026) and at a massive AAV. Something like $140-160MM total from 2027-30. He'd be 34 at the end of that contract.
Drake
- So who plays RF for the Giants? Lee or Bader?
Steve Adams
- Jung Hoo Lee was statistically one of the worst CFs in baseball last year, but his arm strength rated well. Bader is elite in CF. He'll play there. Lee will slide to the corner.
Al
- What do you see is the most likely scenario for Matt Shaw.
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The Astros Have Work To Do In The Outfield
For much of the offseason, the focus surrounding the Astros was how they'd improve their rotation and general starting pitching depth. It was an understandable qualm. Framber Valdez became a free agent, and while he's still lingering on the market, a reunion with Houston never felt all that likely, given the contract he'll likely command and the team's aversion to long-term deals of that magnitude. Hayden Wesneski had Tommy John surgery late last May. Ronel Blanco followed a couple weeks later. Lefty Brandon Walter was an out-of-the-blue success story ... at least until he also underwent Tommy John surgery -- his in mid-September.
The 'Stros have done well to bolster the starting staff. Their surprise deal with NPB star Tatsuya Imai gives them a potential high-end arm to replace Valdez. A trade acquisition of Pittsburgh righty Mike Burrows plugged a young, controllable arm into the fourth spot on the staff. Cheap rolls of the dice on former top prospect Nate Pearson and former D-backs/Royals farmhand Ryan Weiss, who's coming back over after a terrific two years in the Korea Baseball Organization, added some depth.
A six-man group consisting of Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Imai, Burrows, Weiss and Lance McCullers Jr. could be solid -- particularly if McCullers can be even serviceable. Depth arms abound. Spencer Arrighetti, J.P. France, AJ Blubaugh, Colton Gordon, Jason Alexander and Miguel Ullola are all on the 40-man roster and all have minor league options remaining. Twenty-three-year-old Ethan Pecko had a nice season between Double-A and Triple-A last season and could get a look in 2026.
There are still clearly some question marks, but the Astros added an intriguing young arm (Burrows), a high-upside international star (Imai) and an under-the-radar 29-year-old coming off a big KBO showing (Weiss). Things look much better than they did a few months back.
The same can't be said in the outfield. To this point in the offseason, the biggest move the Astros have made, outfield-wise, is non-tendering Chas McCormick. Unless the Astros plan to use Yordan Alvarez in left field on the regular -- which is very unlikely to be the case -- it's easy to argue that they don't have even one everyday outfielder who can be confidently projected as a league-average hitter.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Greetings! Sorry for the abnormal Thursday FO chat and the suddenness of it. Just being a bit proactive since I may have some conflicts arise tomorrow and I want to be sure I get this week's second FO chat in!This will be in lieu of the standard Friday afternoon chat -- sorry if that causes anyone to miss it, but hey, maybe we get some folks who can't make our usual Mon/Fri ones in here.
I'll get going at 3pm CT today, but feel free to submit questions in advance, as always. We should be back on our usual Mon/Fri schedule next week.
- Hello!
- Let's get going
Michael
- Why don’t the Yankees or other teams chose not to offer deferred money in contracts? Sure works for the Dodgers.
Steve Adams
- In short ... they do! I would say the majority of teams throughout the league have leveraged deferrals. Even the Ohtani deal, the most extreme example, was a framework that was amenable to both the Blue Jays and Giants. (Not the Angels, notably)This is largely off the cuff, but here's a quick rundown of some teams' notable deferred contracts over the years...
Blue Jays (Cease, Santander), D-backs (Burnes, Ketel Marte) Royals (Sal Perez), Mets (Lindor, Devin Williams, Manaea), Reds (Homer Bailey, Nick Castellanos), Nationals (basically like every FA they've ever signed), Orioles (Chris Davis), Brewers (Yelich), Rockies/Cardinals (Arenado), Red Sox (Sale, Devers)
- I'm 100% spacing on plenty of names, but deferrals are extremely common, even if the Yankees haven't gone down that road really.
walterj23
- Cubs are rumored to be in on Gallen . How does he fit in the rotation and is it a smart investment?
Steve Adams
- Not convinced Gallen is enough of an upgrade over their in-house options to justify the price tag. If the Cubs really want another rotation splash, they should just sign Framber Valdez, who fits them better anyhow with that huge ground-ball rate in front of that Chicago infield defense.
Brewers
- We win 97 games, the most in MLB and we trade our ace. How can people say it is the Dodgers are what is wrong with baseball with a straight face.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Hey everyone, hope you had a good weekend! Chat swap this week since Steve wanted off for the holiday, he'll run Friday's instead
Clad in plaid
- Is it possible that Cleveland's lack of free agent activity is because they are concerned about a lockout next spring? And if that is the case, would they keep guys like Bazzana off the 40 man roster this year so they can get another year of development in the minors during a lockout? It seems risky to waste another year of Jose Ramirez. Can they compete for a playoff birth with the current roster?
Anthony Franco
- This is the usual offseason for Cleveland. They're not going to run payrolls that allow them to do much in free agency
- Bazzana should be up pretty early in the year, though I imagine they'd like to get him a little more Triple-A work first (ideally with an early look at Brito there). They're a viable playoff team again for me but that's more about everyone in the AL Central remaining content to be the worst division in baseball for like the 15th straight season
Tough Times In Anaheim
- Jo Adell (2 years of control) and Reid Detmers (3 years of control) for Noah Cameron (5 years of control). Who says no?
Anthony Franco
- This is the rare chat proposal that I think is skewed in favor of the team that you're not a fan of
- I get the logic on both sides but I'd want more than just Cameron in this framework if I were the Angels. He's cheaper but not convinced he's a dramatically better starter than Detmers in 2026
Youkyluptus
- Is the Red Sox rotation top 5 in the sport? Who’s i n that t ier?
Anthony Franco
- Yeah I'd have them top five, probably top three. Dodgers probably most talented but obviously plenty of injury questions with them. Cincinnati's in there, Pittsburgh's has a crazy high ceiling but it requires a lot of projection on Ashcraft/Chandler to have them in that tier already
- Obviously Seattle would be a pretty popular pick for this and they are very good 1-5, depth behind that just isn't great. Toronto's really well positioned if you assume Bieber's healthy
Dan S.
- Thinking 2/40 or 3/60 with an opt-out for Gallen?
Anthony Franco
- I'd lean two in the mid-40s probably but neither of these outcomes would surprise me
- Assuming you're also putting an opt-out in the 2/40 deal. Can't see him taking a straight two-year contract
What a Mets
- Does it make sense for the Mets to offer Bellinger a Bichette-type deal- substantial overpay, but short commitment? If so, chances he accepts say 3/126 vs 5/160 from Yankees?
-
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope you're all well!
- Interesting week, let's get rolling
LFGM
- Head spinning! Lost Tucker, got Bichette all in the course of a day. I don’t think the Mets should trade Baty, if Bichette opts out after year 1 you have no 3B, so two questions, how do the Mets work out 1B, LF & DH if they keep Baty. Do you think Vientos, or Mauricio have the value combined with lesser prospects to get the SP the Mets need/want? Maybe Freddy Peralta?
Sam
- Brett Baty on the move?
Lance
- Mets have a roster full of middle infielders and at least 1 poor fielding outfielder, how do you see that shaking out?
Anthony Franco
- A handful of the many Mets questions in here
- I don't think Vientos (or certainly not Mauricio) has the juice to headline a Peralta deal, but it does feel to me that he's getting traded. Seems likelier than Baty, who offers more positional value as a capable defender at second/third (and presumably first)
- Seems like the Mets balked at a Vientos/Robert framework at the deadline but I wonder if that's more workable now if Sox eat a chunk of the money or include a reliever other than Grant Taylor in there
Dave
- How much of this "rush" from a few well-funded teams to spend large sums for short-term contracts is because of the expectation that the impending lockout will force a salary cap into place?
Philly A's
- Are the shorter term but higher AVV contracts because of the possible strike?
Anthony Franco
- I don't think that has much to do with it. Just seems like we had a couple huge spenders that didn't want to go long-term on very good but flawed hitters at the top of the class
- Obviously if you're not keen on committing seven or eight years to either of these guys, you need to compensate by juicing the AAV. Mets had a ton of short-term spending room compared to last season and were running out of players on which they could use it after missing on Tucker
Stott Through The Heart And You're To Blame
- Three years for Realmuto means that Dombrowski is planning on retiring after 2 and letting someone else clean up the mess?
Anthony Franco
- Haha if that were the case, why balk at going to three years in November?
- I'm a little surprised they caved but credit to JTR and his camp for waiting it out. Seemed like Bichette was the last other player for which they were prepared to spend and once he chose elsewhere, they said "screw it, let's get Realmuto done"
Justin
- how do the Tucker and Bichette deals impact Cody Bellinger?
Anthony Franco
- Mets could still accommodate Belli, I guess, but that feels less likely now. Beyond that, not sure it matters much. Dodgers never felt likely there and Yankees never seemed to be in on Tucker. My guess is they get the Yankees to cave on the sixth year and wrap it up
Shatkins
- Did aaron judge just become the most underpaid player in the game (besides arb controlled assets)
Anthony Franco
- It's Ohtani for me but Judge is second. That deal felt like a win for the Yanks at the time and obviously looks dramatically better with where salaries at the top of the market have gone since
Soooo
- What’s next for Boston? I feel like they still need a bat, but I hate to see them lose Early or Tolle. Does some combination of Harrison and Crawford (plus others) get them Paredes?
-
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Where Can The Pirates Turn For Another Bat?
The Pirates clearly entered the 2025-26 offseason with ambitious goals. They've spoken in the past about wanting to lure more free agents and make impact additions in the lineup, but both comments from Pittsburgh brass and the reporting surrounding their early offseason endeavors struck a different tenor. The Pirates' reported willingness to offer Josh Naylor in the vicinity of $80MM was a genuine surprise, given the lack of spending to which we've become accustomed from owner Bob Nutting. The reported $120-125MM offer to Kyle Schwarber -- which would've been the largest deal in franchise history -- was even more of an eye-opener.
Ultimately, finishing second-, third- or fourth-place on a pair of notable free agents has the same end result as sitting out the bidding entirely, but it was nevertheless notable that the Bucs came out swinging. It appeared to set the stage for a more aggressive offseason than usual, and to an extent, we've seen that. Ryan O'Hearn's two-year, $29MM contract isn't a major price to pay for most clubs, but it was the first multiyear free-agent deal given out by Pittsburgh since 2016. Acquiring Brandon Lowe, similarly, wasn't necessarily a blockbuster move in and of itself, but it's a higher-profile trade target than we typically see from the Bucs. Their trade of Johan Oviedo to the Red Sox netted them a fairly touted young outfielder, Jhostynxon Garcia, who could be in the majors early in 2026.
The additions of Lowe and O'Hearn add a pair of clearly above-average bats to Pittsburgh's lineup. They'll join Spencer Horwitz, Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz atop the lineup. Horwitz was last year's primary offensive acquisition, and while his contributions were muted by a spring wrist procedure and a slow start upon activation in June, by the end of the season he looked the part of a quietly excellent pickup. Horwitz hit .272/.353/.434 overall, but that includes a dismal start to his season. Over his final 298 trips to the plate, he slashed .290/.372/.481 with nearly as many walks (11.4%) as strikeouts (15.1%). From late July through season's end (219 PAs), he slashed .314/.402/.539 with a 12.3% walk rate and 13.7% strikeout rate.
The quintet of Horwitz, O'Hearn, Lowe, Reynolds and Cruz has the makings of a solid top half of the lineup -- particularly if Reynolds can set aside last year's awful first half. Through the All-Star break, the Pirates' star outfielder was hitting just .225/.287/.369 (80 wRC+). Following the Midsummer Classic, he turned in a .276/.364/.453 line (128 wRC+) that's more akin to expectations for the 30-year-old former All-Star (who'll turn 31 later this month).
Add in the looming debut of Konnor Griffin, the top-ranked prospect in all of baseball, and you can start to see why Pirates fans are showing some cautious optimism. Griffin may only be 19 years old, but he skyrocketed from Low-A to High-A to Double-A in his debut season last year, posting an outrageous .333/.415/.527 line with 21 home runs and 65 steals despite being one of the youngest -- if not the youngest -- player at each of those minor league stops. The No. 9 overall pick from 2024 could make his MLB debut this coming season, and there's been speculation about him having a real chance to crack the Opening Day roster. There's a lot to dream on for Bucs fans, but the Pirates still feel like they're one bat short.
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MLB Mailbag: Hoerner, Red Sox, Giolito, Gallen
This week's mailbag gets into Nico Hoerner trade possibilities, whether top remaining free agents will go short or long-term, what's next for the Red Sox after Alex Bregman signed with the Cubs, where free agents such as Lucas Giolito and Zac Gallen might land, and much more.
Marc asks:
Well, Tom Ricketts proved me wrong. I never thought he’d pony up for a high dollar FA again. So, what now? I see all the rumors about Nico Hoerner but I think the Edward Cabrera trade and Alex Bregman signing are “all in” moves and moving Hoerner would weaken them (I think). Is there another move you think they could/ should still make?
I was surprised as well. I didn't think the Cubs would substantially improve their offer to Bregman from a year prior. But while Bregman is a year older, he was also free of the qualifying offer this time around. The signing is also a reminder that each offseason is its own beast with unique variables. What might have changed for the Cubs in 2025? They saw increased regular season attendance, hosted five playoff games at Wrigley, and got a better feel for what Matt Shaw can do in the Majors. They may have also grown more enamored of Bregman, who seemed to be adored by Boston's young players.
I would not make a blanket statement that the Cubs should not trade Hoerner this winter - it always depends on the return. But certainly the Cubs should not trade Hoerner if it makes them worse in 2026.
I haven't found a Cubs fan online who wants to trade Hoerner. But I will play devil's advocate for a minute.
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The Braves Need To Make A Rotation Splash
The Braves have been aggressive this offseason, signing four free agents (Raisel Iglesias, Ha-Seong Kim, Robert Suarez and Mike Yastrzemski) to deals that pay eight figures annually. They also bolstered their infield depth with the Mauricio Dubón trade, taking on nearly $5MM for the difference in arbitration salaries between Dubón and Nick Allen.
Their free agent activity has already been out of character compared to Alex Anthopolous' previous offseasons. They love to re-sign their players, so it wasn't a huge surprise they brought Kim and Iglesias back, yet they hadn't given out more than one free agent deal with a $10MM+ annual value in an offseason since 2020. Their four such contracts this offseason are more than they'd dished out in the previous four winters combined.
It's still not enough. They've ticked off shortstop and late-inning relief. Those were indeed key needs, but neither was as worrisome as the rotation. Injuries exposed Atlanta's lack of starting pitching depth in 2025. They haven't done anything to address that thus far, and they should be as motivated as any team in MLB to add a mid-rotation arm before Opening Day.
The Braves will enter the season with a rotation that'd line up as Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider, Hurston Waldrep and one of Reynaldo López or Grant Holmes. If they could push a "turn off injuries" button, they'd be in excellent shape. Every team wishes they could keep pitchers healthy, of course, but the Braves look particularly vulnerable. AJ Smith-Shawver underwent Tommy John surgery in June and isn't coming back until the second half at the earliest. Their other six starters have limited track records or durability questions, and no one behind that group should be starting games at the MLB level.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! I'll get going around 3pm CT, give or take a couple minutes. Feel free to ask questions ahead of time, as always! Looking forward to another chat.
- Hello! Let's get underway!
Rangers13
- With the Soderstrom extension as a comp, what would a Wyatt Langford extension look like?
Steve Adams
- Both 24-year-old OFs with 2+ years of service and four to go until free agency. I would think a Langfor deal looks relatively similar, though I can see his camp pushing for a bit more since he'd likely have had a larger starting point in arbitration; he's been a productive all-around hitter for two seasons now, while Soderstrom took a few to get there and thus had a weaker pre-arb platform. I don't think the gap should be immense, though.
Guards4Life
- Noah Cameron or Cade Horton. Who are you building a rotation around?
Steve Adams
- I suppose it depends on the context of the rest of this mystery new team I'm starting, haha. What's my payroll?! :)I would take Horton over Cameron in a bubble. I think he has a higher ceiling based on the stuff, but Cameron probably has better command and a higher floor. If you told me: "One of these two is going to be a rock solid No. 4 starter for the next four to five years and the other will end up in the bullpen," I would assume it's Cameron the SP and Horton in the 'pen.
That said, I also think Horton has the better chance at pitching like a true No. 2-3 starter over a longer period. I'd probably go with him, but if you preferred a more certain, bankable source of innings and felt Cameron was the preferable route, it's defensible enough.
Brewers Fan
- Last night Mark said even after the Cabrera and Bregman deals he's not sure he'd pick the Cubs over the Brewers. You agree? Think the brewers need to make a move to keep pace or are okay standing pat?
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