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MLB Mailbag: Tucker, Bellinger, Grisham, Cardinals, Royals, Angels, Twins

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This week's mailbag looks at potential Kyle Tucker suitors, the chances of the Yankees retaining Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham, the Angels' history in free agency, extension ideas for the Royals and Cardinals, and what the future holds for the Twins.

Colin asks:

Where are some realistic landing spots for Kyle Tucker this offseason?

Why not just assess the viability of Tucker for all 30 teams?  I'm sure Tucker's agents at Excel Sports Management already have.

  • White Sox: In their June statement, the team said that Justin Ishbia "will make capital infusions into the White Sox as a limited partner in 2025 and 2026 that will be used to pay down existing debt and support ongoing team operations."  The team's long-term books are already clean.  Could Ishbia announce his presence by signing Tucker to a contract worth perhaps more than six times the team's current record deal of $75MM? Chalk it up as highly unlikely, yet still more likely than it's been in a long time.
  • Guardians: No chance.
  • Tigers: The club's dalliance with Alex Bregman last winter was notable, but that still wouldn't have been a top-three free agent deal.  Tucker is highly unlikely here based on how the Tigers have operated since Mike Ilitch passed away in 2017.
  • Royals: No chance.
  • Twins: No chance.
  • Orioles: Payroll-wise, the Orioles could manage this, but we've been saying that sort of thing for a while now.  We've only seen one offseason under David Rubenstein, and it topped out with Tyler O'Neill's $49.5MM deal, but he could theoretically surprise us.
  • Red Sox: On a team with Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony, and Wilyer Abreu, signing Tucker doesn't seem to make sense.  The Red Sox were in on Juan Soto last winter, and Duran or Abreu could be traded, so we won't rule it out quite yet.
  • Yankees: With Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger up for free agency and Jasson Dominguez failing to assert himself, there is a reasonable case to be made here for Tucker.  There's enough payroll space to make it work as well.
  • Rays: I was going to write "no chance" and move on, but Tucker is from Tampa and Patrick Zalupski should assume ownership of the Rays before the outfielder signs.  Given that Zalupski can't magically change the Rays' market size, he doesn't have a plan for a new stadium in place, and he doesn't have Steve Cohen type net worth, this is still pretty close to "no chance."
  • Blue Jays: Nathan Lukes, Daulton Varsho, and Addison Barger make up a typical Jays outfield right now, with George Springer, Myles Straw, and Davis Schneider also drawing some starts and Anthony Santander on the IL.  Re-signing Bo Bichette or adding starting pitching would seem more urgent, but there's no particular impediment to the Blue Jays pursuing Tucker.  Plus, Excel did the Springer deal with the Blue Jays.
  • Athletics: The A's made their statement last winter with a trio of $60-something million contracts (Luis Severino, Lawrence Butler, and Brent Rooker).  That's still a very far cry from Tucker's stratosphere, and he's not going to elect to make Sutter Health Park his new home for the next few years.
  • Astros: There's no evidence the Astros got anywhere with extension talks when they had Tucker, and no reason to think Jim Crane will break precedent and give him a huge contract on the open market.
  • Angels: With Anthony Rendon's contract almost off the books, could the Angels try for a major free agent once again?  There's no compelling reason to think so, but Arte Moreno is at least capable of swimming in these waters.
  • Mariners: The Robinson Cano deal happened nearly 12 years ago; the Mariners would likely have to similarly bowl over the competition to convince Tucker to come there.  Consider it unlikely, but not absurd.
  • Rangers: The Rangers are on track to stay under the CBT and thus reset their payor status.  Adding a fourth huge contract running into a player's late 30s might not be the best long-term move, and starting pitching seems more urgent, but a pursuit of Tucker can't be ruled out.

Moving on to the National League:

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Trevor Rogers’ Reemergence

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At the 2024 trade deadline, the Orioles traded upper minors hitters Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby to the Marlins for reclamation starter Trevor Rogers. Many perceived it as an overpay, and the deal immediately went south. Rogers, who was carrying a 4.53 ERA for Miami, allowed 16 runs in 19 innings over his first four starts with the Orioles. Baltimore optioned him to Triple-A within three weeks and he was a non-factor for a postseason bound club.

This season didn't start out any better. Rogers began the year on the injured list with a right knee subluxation. Baltimore optioned him back to Triple-A when he was healthy. Outside of one strong spot start on May 24, the 6'5" lefty wasn't on the radar into the middle of June. Baltimore's big league rotation -- which was without Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish and Zach Eflin -- pitched so poorly that their season was more or less finished by the time they recalled Rogers on June 18.

Stowers added insult to injury by carrying Miami's lineup with a pair of power barrages in April and July. He's streaky but now looks like the Marlins' best position player. Even if Norby doesn't work out, Miami is thrilled with their end of the deal. As recently as the middle of June, it looked like a complete bust for Baltimore. It wasn't a lock they'd even tender Rogers a contract for his final season of arbitration.

Two months later, Rogers is the favorite to be on the Camden Yards mound for Opening Day 2026. He had a rocky first start after being recalled, giving up three runs without escaping the third inning against Tampa Bay. He has taken the ball 12 times since then and been the best pitcher in baseball.

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The Nationals Need To Lean Further Into Their Rebuild

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This wasn't how the Nationals hoped their rebuild would play out. When now-former GM Mike Rizzo traded Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers back in 2021, the hope was that dismantling a stacked roster could lead to an accelerated turnaround. In the span of just over a calendar year, Washington traded Scherzer, Turner and Juan Soto, in addition to short-term veterans like Kyle Schwarber, Jon Lester, Brad Hand, Yan Gomes, Daniel Hudson, Josh Harrison, Josh Bell, Jeimer Candelario, Dylan Floro and Hunter Harvey.

It obviously takes years to fully evaluate the extent of any given trade, but it's more than fair to say the slate of moves largely hasn't panned out. Rizzo's return for Soto/Bell has been terrific, with the Nats netting James Wood, MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell III and Jarlin Susana. The first four are current big leaguers -- the first three are stars or close to it -- and Susana is now a consensus top-100 pitching prospect. The trade of Lester brought back Lane Thomas, who was a solid regular for a few years before being traded to Cleveland last summer in a deal that netted the Nats current big league infielder Jose Tena and left-hander Alex Clemmey -- currently their No. 3 prospect at Baseball America. It's a nice return for one-plus seasons of Thomas.

The rest of the Nationals' haul, however, hasn't really panned out. Washington doesn't have any above-average regulars to show for the rest of that slate of trades. If they'd focused squarely on low-level minor leaguers who were still bubbling up to the top of a stacked farm system, that'd be one thing .... but it's not the case. Washington's farm system ranks 21st in the majors, per Baseball America, and that's after benefiting from the No. 1 pick in this summer's draft. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel ranks their farm 22nd. The MLB.com team ranks them 23rd. For a last place team that's been rebuilding for more than four years, that's not sufficient.

Let's dive into what the Nats received from that group of trades, what critical decisions lie ahead in the offseason, and how boldly they could act in order to turn things around.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Anthony Franco

  • Hey everyone, hope you've enjoyed your week! Looking forward to another of these, let's get going

Dave Dombrowski

  • How much has Kyle Schwarber raised his salary now? Does 4/140 keep him in Philly and away from FA? Does the uncertainty regarding Wheeler push me to make a strong offer to Ranger Suarez? And will there be enough left to resign JTR, the real rock of the pitching staff? Do you think that John Middleton will back a payroll approaching $400M?

Anthony Franco

  • Yeah I have to imagine 4/140 would get it done before he hits the market. Still don't see Philly going to 35M annually especially at their luxury tax status, but I do think he's got a shot at five years that could approach that guarantee
  • DH who is soon to be 33 is a profile the market hates but Schwarber's pretty clearly in a different tier from the Santander/Teoscar group. You could point to Alonso's quiet market last year as a counterargument, but Schwarber's walk year is so much better than Alonso's 2024
  • I don't think the Wheeler injury dramatically changes things on Ranger. Never seemed all that likely to me that they'd re-sign him for nine figures, even after trading Abel. I think they're just more likely to be in on an Adrian Houser type who can serve as a fifth starter or long man once Painter is in the rotation

Slick

  • Are the Nationals looking at another five years of rebuilding?  From top to bottom this team appears to be in disarray.

Anthony Franco

  • I'm not as pessimistic on a core with Wood, Abrams, Gore, etc. but based on Steve's forthcoming Front Office post this week, I think he's more in your camp
  • He's about to drop like 2000 words on this topic

Mariners

  • What are your thoughts on the Robles suspension? Fair? Too long? Too short?

Anthony Franco

  • Start at 10, drop to seven seems fine. I feel like Contreras should have been at that level as well though, so I guess you could argue it's inconsistent

Chris

  • More likely to rebound in 2026: Braves or Orioles?

Anthony Franco

  • Tough one. I think I'd take Baltimore. Atlanta's got more high-end talent coming back, especially on the pitching staff, but they're probably going to put a lot on Sale, Schwellenbach and López to stay healthy in a way that concerns me
  • The O's have a lot of heavy lifting to do this offseason, especially in the bullpen, but I think they're a little more well equipped to navigate 162 with in-house depth

JeffyM82

  • Bo Bichette 2025 total hits over/under Bo Bichette total free agent contract (millions).  Where are you putting your money? Bo Currently has 169 hits with 28 games remaining.

Anthony Franco

  • Ha yeah I'll take the hits. I like this one though, reasonable argument either way

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What Kind Of Contract Can Framber Valdez Command?

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We're a little over two months from the opening of free agency. Framber Valdez has probably established himself as the #1 pitcher. That's in part due to Dylan Cease's inconsistency and Michael King missing almost three months to a nerve-related shoulder injury. It's also a testimony to Valdez's consistency and incredible run of durability. It's not common for the top pitcher in a free agent year to be one entering his age-32 season. That should be the case this winter.

How does Valdez stack up against the top starting pitchers in previous free agent classes? MLBTR's Contract Tracker, available to Front Office subscribers, allows for direct comparisons. That makes it possible to project what kind of deal his camp should seek as he approaches the biggest payday of his career.

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MLB Mailbag: Kyle Tucker, Nick Lodolo, Bo Bichette, Rays, Mets

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This week's mailbag gets into the Cubs and Kyle Tucker, the Reds trading Nick Lodolo for a big bat this winter, Bo Bichette's contract, and offseason approaches for the Rays and Mets.

NE asks:

Do the Cubs and Kyle Tucker have any interest in an extension?

Tucker came out of the gates with a 157 wRC+ in 370 plate appearances through June.  That performance put him basically in a dead heat with fellow All-Star starter Pete Crow-Armstrong and Shohei Ohtani with 4 WAR, at which point all three players were in the NL MVP race.

Tucker jammed his right ring finger on a June 1st slide.  He continued to play well, but later revealed that "a week or two after that" x-rays found a hairline fracture.  The narrative around the injury remains confusing.

Tucker posted a 173 wRC+ in June, the best month of his season.  He homered on June 28th as part of a four-hit game.  Then he went on to hit just one home run over his next 172 PA.  So the idea is that Tucker played through this injury but it only began to sap his power four weeks later, perhaps due to some mechanical change to his swing.

By mid-August, Tucker was throwing his helmet, slamming his bat, failing to run out grounders, and getting booed by Cubs fans.  On August 18th, Cubs manager Craig Counsell announced the plan to give Tucker a mental reset on the bench.  The following day, Brewers manager Pat Murphy went on 670 The Score and said, "I think Tucker is hurt. I don't have any information, but Tucker's not the same. He's hurt, and he's playing through it. He's such a class kid that he probably doesn't mention it to anyone."

Murphy's comments caused the Cubs to fess up to Tucker playing through the hairline fracture.  It was just a very odd way for this to all go down: the injury that didn't manifest itself for four weeks, and the reveal coming from a rival team's manager who either made a really good guess or actually did have some information.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon! I'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to ask a question ahead of time if you like.
  • Hello! Let's get underway

small mouth bass

  • For 2026, could the Jays opt for slick middle infield - Gimenez + Clement - and go hard after Bregman to play 3rd (with Barger going to RF)?

Steve Adams

  • I don't see any reason the Jays wouldn't be on Bregman this offseason. He's a good fit for the roster, they have plenty of cash coming off the books, they'll be firmly in win-now mode, the cost won't be beyond their comfort level, etc.That said, I don't think that means you need to resign yourself to Gimenez/Clement up the middle. Second basemen generally aren't paid that richly in free agency. Gleyber Torres is probably going to be the top earner among this year's group, but I don't think he's going to get nine figures or anything. They could look for a bounceback from Luis Rengifo or look into trading for Brandon Lowe or Ozzie Albies. There are lots of paths to consider.

Unqualified Reds GM

  • Nick Lodolo for Jarren Duran. What/who else needs to be tossed in for this to happen?

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Anthony Franco

  • Hey everyone, hope you've enjoyed your week!
  • Have a bunch going on today so I need to keep this one at an hour

Olereb

  • Who do you see the Braves targeting to upgrade at ss, also do you see the Braves trying to rid themselves of Justin Profar?

Anthony Franco

  • Bichette would be uncharacteristic for them but they've got Iglesias and Ozuna coming off the books short term and there's a case they need to move off their usual operating procedure of prioritizing trades/extensions based on how poorly they've played this year
  • Albies doesn't look like a core piece anymore, so they'd be able to slide Bo over to second in a couple years if he can't stick at SS long term. Trade market at the position has been bad for a while. Sox would probably move Story to make room for Marcelo Mayer (eh), could try to get the Royals to give up Maikel Garcia but it'd take a lot
  • Profar's mashing since he's been back. They'd need a new left fielder if they trade him. I'm sure they're not happy with how things went down, but keeping him at 2/30 seems fine to me

Sam

  • What's the Twins' offseason ahead look like? Will it be frugal once again due to the Pohlads retaining ownership of the team, or will they decide to start spending again (a la Correa) to try to get back into contention?

Anthony Franco

  • I have a hard time seeing them kick up spending dramatically. Teams almost never follow up a massive teardown by throwing a bunch of money at it and trying again
  • I expect Ryan and Jeffers to go at least. Feels like they could hold Pablo into next season because of the injury impacting his trade value. Then backfill with a bunch of smaller deals in the bullpen (similar to last winter's Rangers approach) at catcher, and for a right-handed outfield bat
  • They brought back enough upper level talent, particularly in the rotation, that I could see a path to contention in 2027. Much harder for me to envision it next season

Brian

  • with Samuel Basallo now locked up long term, what are chances the O's trade Adley this offseason?

Anthony Franco

  • I don't think the Basallo extension moves the odds much. They had him under team control for six seasons and knew how good he was already
  • They can coexist with the DH but Rutschman's offensive decline has made it feel for a while that he's running out of time there. Guess I'd put the odds of an offseason trade at 55%? Feels like at least 75% chance he's dealt by the 2026-27 offseason

The best evah

  • Can you explain what makes Mackenzie Gore so attractive to MLB teams? Despite a higher K/9 this year compared to previous years (10.7), he has a career 4.01 ERA and (as far as I can tell) striking out half a batter more per nine seems to be the only thing he's improved in his game this year. To throw out another data point, Will Warren is a year younger and sporting a HR9/BB9/K9 of  1.0/3.9/10.1, compared to Gore's 1.2/3.4/10.7. Is Warren half a strikeout per nine away from being seen in a similar light to Gore?

Anthony Franco

  • I'm sure there are plenty of teams that really like Warren but Gore throws two MPH harder from the left side, and there's a huge gap in swinging strikes on a per-pitch basis. Gore's eighth among pitchers with 100+ IP with a 13.4% swinging strike rate. Warren is 69th at 9.5%
  • Warren gets a ton of called strikes, so they're pretty close in overall strikeout rate, but that's a little tougher to bank on year over year. Gore getting tons of whiffs with plus stuff from the left side feels like a higher upside play
  • Also feels like Gore's results are weighed down a little bit pitching in front of a Nationals infield that is by far the worst in MLB. It's a good shout though. Warren's good, just a tier down below Gore for me

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MLB Mailbag: Konnor Griffin, Extension Candidates, Realignment, Ketel Marte, Detmers

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This week's mailbag gets into extension possibilities, realignment problems, whether a Ketel Marte trade makes sense, Reid Detmers' future, and much more.

Greg asks:

With a good spring is there a possibility of the Pirates signing Konnor Griffin long-term and starting him on Day 1?

In Baseball America's August update, shortstop Konnor Griffin was ranked as the top prospect in all of baseball.  BA wrote, "Griffin has taken off like a meteor this season and his penchant for impact hasn’t slowed down even despite a promotion to High-A. The 19-year-old has made significant strides in allaying concerns about his hit tool and approach, and the rest of his overall game has evaluators buzzing as they envision how his plus power, speed and at least above-average defense at two different positions could come together."

Griffin has mostly played shortstop this year, with the occasional start in center field.  He posted a 156 wRC+ in A ball and got even better in High-A with a 169 mark.  Though he doesn't turn 20 until next April, Griffin got another promotion to Double-A this past weekend.

Given that Griffin has played one game in Double-A and the Altoona Curve only have 23 more on the schedule, putting him on the Pirates' Opening Day roster next year at age 19 would be aggressive, perhaps to the point of being detrimental.  Even Jackson Chourio played 122 games at Double-A and had a brief taste of Triple-A.  But let's explore the likelihood of an extension.

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Which Other Players Could End Up On Waivers This Month?

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The second half of August brings an uptick in waiver placements. Beyond the trade deadline, waivers are the only real option for player movement from one team to another. A few teams that were fringe contenders at the end of July know now that they're almost certainly going to miss the postseason. Placing veterans with semi-notable salaries on waivers gives them a chance to dump the final few weeks of a contract. Other teams aren't going to claim a terrible contract, but there's sometimes a balance where the player's salary is solid value but isn't of much use to a team that is going to miss the playoffs anyway.

This can take on added importance for teams that are right up against the luxury tax. The Angels kicked this practice into gear two years ago, offloading Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López and Matt Moore to slide narrowly below the CBT threshold. That at least allowed them to recoup a better draft pick when Shohei Ohtani walked in free agency. It's not only about tax avoidance, though. A lot of teams would welcome the opportunity just to cut a few hundred thousand dollars off the books in a losing season.

Within the past week, Rangers righty Jon Gray has already gone unclaimed on waivers. He was subsequently placed on the injured list due to thoracic outlet syndrome and will probably remain on the IL for the rest of the season. Marlins starter Cal Quantrill hit waivers within the past day or two; it's to be seen whether another team will pick up the approximate $734K that he's owed through season's end. Waiver placements that are not preceded by a DFA aren't publicly announced by teams. They're often leaked to reporters, but it's entirely possible there have already been a few notable names who have cleared or are on waivers that haven't gotten out.

The late-August timing isn't coincidental. Players must be in an organization by the start of September to be eligible for postseason play. Teams can still go the waiver route in September, but other clubs are less likely to place a claim next month because those players cannot help in the playoffs. Waiting until the end of August gives the current team as much time as possible to see where they're at in the standings. It also reduces the cost to a potential claiming team to around four weeks of salary, perhaps making someone more likely to place a claim at the end of the month than they would have been a few weeks ago (when the remaining salary would be around twice as high).

It's worth reiterating that the teams placing the player on waivers are hoping another team makes a claim. Sending a veteran through unclaimed has little to no benefit. Most of them have the five-plus service years to refuse a minor league assignment, so teams usually proceed as if nothing happened if the player goes unclaimed. They could place them back on waivers in a week or two to see if another club is more willing to bite because of the lower remaining salary and/or intervening injuries.

Which players could find themselves on waivers within the next 10 days? There's a clear team with which to start -- a club that bought at the deadline but has been in a free fall ever since while they sit right against the luxury line.

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