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Filing Day Reactions: NL East

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After a busy filing day, let’s see what’s in store for a couple of teams in the NL East…

  • Only Shane Greene remains from their arbitration pool. The Braves and Greene have a $500K gap in their filing numbers to reconcile lest the panel get the final say. Greene will figure in the back end mix no matter his price point. With Will Smith in tow and a full season of Mark Melancon, Greene should slot in somewhere closer to the 7th inning along with Chris Martin and Luke Jackson. Overall, the Braves payroll is already set to open at a franchise record $130MM for the 2020 season – and that’s without Josh Donaldson, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien. It certainly says something that the Braves are still trying to bring back Donaldson despite already setting a team record for payroll. Despite the Nationals’ World Series title, the Braves are the back-to-back defending NL East champs, and they’ve been aggressive this winter in their attempt to make it a turkey with a third consecutive division crown in 2020.
  • The Phillies came away from filing day with deals with all but two of their arbitration candidates: J.T. Realmuto and Hector Neris. Philadelphia would like to hammer out an extension for Realmuto, with Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer supposing Realmuto to desire “something in the neighborhood of five years and $100 million.” An extension could grant GM Matt Klentak important flexibility. Right now the Opening Day payroll figures to land around $202MM, giving the club about $6MM in wiggle room for in-season additions before exceeding the luxury tax. Phillies managing partner John Middleton is prepared to pay the tax, but not for a team that doesn’t figure for the playoffs. For the second consecutive year, it looks like the Phillies will wait to see where they are in the standings before deciding to pay the tax.
  • The Nationals settled with all their arbitration eligible players, but GM Mike Rizzo spoke with the media today, touching on a number of topics. They expect resolution on the Ryan Zimmerman front shortly, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. GM Mike Rizzo met with Zimmerman for 90 minutes on Friday, and it’s long been expected that the Nats would bring back Mr. National for the title defense. As for third base, Rizzo considers the position filled without totally shutting the door on a Donaldson signing, per The Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli. Asdrubal Cabrera and Starlin Castro figure to get time at third, and speculatively speaking, Howie Kendrick saw a few innings at the hot corner last year as well. Bottom line, the Nats plan on creativity and flexibility for their whole infield this year, and they are okay not naming and everyday starter, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post.

2020 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

After a busy day of dealmaking, 161 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 29 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint. It’s hardly an unusual number of unresolved cases at this stage, but there are quite a few high-dollar situations still at issue and teams have increasingly adopted a “file-and-trial” approach to the process in recent years. (That is, no negotiations on single-season salaries after the deadline to exchange figures.)

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:

Hector Neris, Noe Ramirez Receive 3-Game Suspensions

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5:03pm: Angels righty Noe Ramirez has also been suspended for a trio of contests after also being deemed to have thrown at the head of a hitter. In his case, he went after Jake Marisnick in apparent retribution for the outfielder’s own recent actions, which resulted in an injury to Halos catcher Jonathan Lucroy and a two-game ban for Marisnick.

Halos skipper Brad Ausmus also took a one-game ban, which he’ll serve tonight. Ramirez will appeal the suspension, he tells reporters including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (via Twitter).

4:44pm: Major League Baseball has announced a three-game suspension for Phillies righty Hector Neris. He was deemed to have thrown intentionally at Dodgers infielder David Freese.

Here’s video of the incident. MLB cited the fact that the pitch was thrown “in the area of the head” of the hitter in explaining its decision.

Neris, the Phils’ closer, will appeal the suspension, according to Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter). If he loses or abandons the appeal, the punishment will take him out of the ninth inning for a brief stretch. Some might say that poor performance had already threatened such a move.

It was a brutal showing for Neris last night, as he coughed up three-run bomb to blow his fourth save. All of those have come since June 14th, with three coming since June 27th alone. Neris had a 1.88 ERA in mid-June; that has ballooned to 4.08. He evidently decided to take out his frustration on Freese, who strode to the plate after the ill-fated pitch.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: Thursday

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The deadline for teams and players to exchange arbitration figures is tomorrow afternoon at 1pm ET. With the vast majority of teams now adopting a “file-and-trial” approach to arbitration — that is, halting negotiations on one-year contracts once figures have been exchanged and simply going to a hearing at that point — there will be a deluge of arbitration agreements in the next 24 hours. It’s a minor deadline day in terms of newsworthiness — outside of the largest cases, at least — as few arbitration cases will have a significant impact on their team’s overall payroll picture. From a broader perspective, though, the exchange of arb figures is perhaps more notable. With most or all of their arbitration cases out of the way, teams can focus more heavily on the trade and free-agent markets.

As always, it’s interesting to refer back to MLBTR’s annual arbitration projections. Here are the day’s deals:

  • The Tigers will pay Shane Greene $4MM for the coming campaign, Murray tweets. Entering his second year of eligibility, the 30-year-old had projected at $4.8MM, owing largely to his strong tally of 32 saves. Despite appealing K/BB numbers, though, Greene finished the season with an unsightly 5.12 ERA.
  • Righty Nick Tropeano settled with the Angels at $1.075MM. (That’s also via Murray, on Twitter.) That falls well shy of his $1.6MM projection. The first-year arb-eligible hurler was not terribly effective in his 14 starts last year and has just over two hundred career frames in the big leagues, due in no small part to a long rehab owing to Tommy John surgery.

Earlier Updates

  • Newly acquired outfielder Domingo Santana will earn $1.95MM in his first season with the Mariners, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. That’s just a touch below the $2.0MM that MLBTR & Matt Swartz had projected. The 26-year-old Santana swatted thirty long balls and had a productive overall 2017 season, but only received 235 plate appearances in the ensuing campaign — over which he hit five home runs and carried a .265/.328/.412 slash — before being dealt to Seattle.
  • The Angels are on the hook for $1,901,000 to rehabbing righty J.C. Ramirez, Robert Murray of The Athletic tweets. Ramirez will receive a nominal raise on his 2018 salary after requiring Tommy John surgery after just two starts.
  • Phillies righty Hector Neris has settled at $1.8MM, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (Twitter links). He had projected at $2.0MM but will settle for a bit less in his first season of arb eligibility. Right-handed starter Jerad Eickhoff, meanwhile, is slated to receive $975K. His projected first-year salary was much higher, at $1.7MM, but Eickhoff presented a tough case since he missed virtually all of his platform season with arm troubles.
  • Southpaw Ryan Buchter has agreed with the Athletics on a $1.4MM deal, Nightengale of reports on Twitter. That lands just a smidge over his $1.3MM projection. Soon to turn 32, Buchter worked to a sub-3.00 for the third-straight season in 2018, but only threw 39 1/3 innings while working as a lefty specialist.
  • Red Sox reliever Heath Hembree will receive a $1,312,500 salary next year, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports (Twitter link). Starter Steven Wright checks in just a shade higher, at $1.375MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Both players had projected in this range, with Swartz pegging $1.2MM for the former and $1.4MM for the latter. It’s Hembree’s first time through the process and Wright’s second.
  • First-time arb-eligible righty Scott Oberg settled with the Rockies for $1.3MM, according to Nightengale (via Twitter). It’s $100K over the projected rate for the 28-year-old hurler, who turned in far and away his most productive MLB season in 2018.
  • The Yankees have a $1.2MM deal in place with first baseman Greg Bird, Nightengale was first to tweet. Though he had projected a bit higher, at $1.5MM, Bird’s relatively robust number of home runs (31 total in 659 career plate appearances) were threatened to be overshadowed in a hypothetical hearing by his rough overall stats over the past two seasons. He’ll need to earn his way back into a larger share of playing time in 2019.
  • Infielder Travis Jankowski will earn $1.165MM with the Padres, per Murray (via Twitter). He projected at a heftier $1.4MM, but the Super Two qualifier will still earn a nice raise after his best season in the big leagues. Jankowski will be looking to crack 400 plate appearances for the first time in the season to come.
  • The Nationals have agreed to a $1MM contract with righty Joe Ross, Murray also tweets. Though Ross projected at $1.5MM for his first season of eligibility, that was based largely upon the innings he accumulated over the prior three seasons. Ross made it back from Tommy John surgery in time for only three outings in 2018.
  • A pair of backstops have also put pen to paper on new salaries. Curt Casali will earn $950K with the Reds, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). John Ryan Murphy has a $900K agreement with the Diamondbacks, the elder Nightengale tweets. Casali, a Super Two, had projected for a $1.3MM salary, while Murphy projected at $1.1MM in his first arb year.

Phillies Place Edubray Ramos On DL, Recall Hector Neris

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The Phillies announced Monday that they’ve placed right-hander Edubray Ramos on the 10-day disabled list due to a right shoulder impingement and recalled Hector Neris in his place.

The loss of Ramos is a significant hit to the Philadelphia relief corps, as he’s somewhat quietly been one of the most effective relievers in the National League this season. Through 29 innings, he’s worked to a pristine 1.24 ERA with a healthy 9.9 K/9 mark against 3.1 BB/9 and 0.62 HR/9. Ramos is an extreme fly-ball pitcher (45.1 percent in 2018), but he’s nonetheless proven adept at limiting homers in his big league career. Through 126 2/3 innings, he’s yielded just 11 homers (0.78 HR/9). There’s no indication to this point just how long Ramos is expected to remain sidelined, but certainly any shoulder injury is cause for concern with a pitcher.

Neris, meanwhile, will return to the club just a week after being optioned. He tossed a pair of scoreless innings for the Phillies’ top affiliate in Lehigh Valley, and the team will hope that his abbreviated demotion will help to get the struggling righty back on track. Neris opened the season as the Phillies’ closer and has been an important bullpen piece for the team dating back to 2015. However, after three strong seasons in which he ascended from middle-relief work to a setup role and eventually the team’s closer, he’s struggled immensely in 2018.

This season, Neris has been clobbered for a 6.00 ERA, and while his 11.7 K/9 mark and 17.6 percent swinging-strike rate are excellent, he’s been the most homer-prone reliever in the National League this season. In just 27 innings, Neris has served up eight long balls.

In addition to the bullpen maneuverings, the Phillies also announced that they’ve reinstated infielder Jesmuel Valentin from the paternity list and optioned fellow infielder Mitch Walding back to Lehigh Valley in a corresponding move.

Phillies Option Hector Neris

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The Phillies announced that they’ve optioned right-hander Hector Neris to Triple-A Lehigh Valley and selected the contract of lefty Austin Davis from Double-A Reading. Neris has spent the better part of the past two seasons serving as Philadelphia’s closer.

While Neris was dominant in a setup role in 2016 and pitched similarly well in his first season as the Phillies’ closer in 2017, the 2018 campaign has been disastrous for the 29-year-old. His season-long struggles culminated yesterday in a meltdown that saw Neris yield four runs on four hits, including two homers, in just two-third of an inning.

That latest hiccup sent Neris’ ERA soaring to an even 6.00, though his struggles have been ongoing for a considerably longer period of time; Neris has been scored upon in five of his past eight appearances and in nine of his 30 games pitched on the season overall.

The demotion will provide Neris with a lower-pressure setting in which to work to correct his struggles, and service time won’t be a consideration with regard to determining the length of his stay in Lehigh Valley. Neris entered the year with two years, 104 days of Major League service, so he’s already cleared three years of service time and remains on track to be arbitration-eligible following the current season. He’ll still be controllable through the 2021 campaign, regardless of whether his optional assignment lasts for three weeks or three months.

It’s not clear who the Phillies will utilize as their closer in the interim. Seranthony Dominguez, Edubray Ramos and Victor Arano would each figure to be among the leading candidates, as they’ve all been dominant so far in 2018. If the Phillies prefer to save those tantalizing arms for higher-leverage spots while turning to a more veteran option to enter with the bases empty in the ninth inning, though, Tommy Hunter is on hand to potentially fill that role.

Hector Neris Switches Agencies

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Phillies closer Hector Neris has changed his representation and is now a client of Octagon, FanRag Sports’ Robert Murray tweets.  Neris joins Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez, and Cameron Rupp as notable Phillies players under the Octagon banner.

After a breakout 2016 season, it was seen as just a matter of time before Neris was eventually given the ninth-inning job in Philadelphia.  The team began the year with Jeanmar Gomez and Joaquin Benoit getting the bulk of save chances, but Neris eventually shifted into the closer role and, after some early struggles, looked dominant down the stretch.  Over his last 42 appearances (43 1/3 IP), Neris posted a 2.49 ERA and 52 strikeouts against just 15 walks.  Overall, Neris had a 3.01 ERA, 10.37 K/9 and 3.31 K/BB rate over 80 1/3 innings, saving 26 of 29 chances and missing a lot of bats (16.4% swinging strike rate) thanks to a notoriously tough splitter.

Neris turns 29 in June but he still offers four years of team control for the Phils, and isn’t arbitration-eligible until next winter.  Saves are one of the traditional counting stats that play a big role in arbitration numbers, so Neris is in line for a pretty nice payday next offseason and in his two other arb years if he retains his hold on the closer’s job.

Neris’ switch in representation has been noted in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains agent information on more than 2,500 Major League and Minor League players. If you come across any errors or omissions in the database, let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

NL East Notes: Cecchini, Cabrera, Nationals, Neris

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The Mets will promote infielder Gavin Cecchini prior to tonight’s game against the Giants, Adam Rubin reports (on Twitter). A corresponding move for Cecchini’s recall is not yet known. Once considered one of the top prospects in all of baseball, Cecchini’s stock has taken a step back, though he still entered the season rated as the Mets’ No. 6 prospect by both Baseball America and MLB.com. In addition to making his MLB debut last season and hitting a pair of doubles in seven plate appearances with the Mets last season, the 23-year-old turned in a solid year in Triple-A Las Vegas. In 499 plate appearances there last season, Cecchini batted .325/.390/.448. He’s off to a slower start in 2017, slashing .254/.316/.369.

More from the Senior Circuit’s Eastern Division…

  • Flamethrowing reliever Mauricio Cabrera was activated from the disabled list by the Braves yesterday, though he was optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett. Cabrera was one of Atlanta’s best relievers in 2016 and is touted as a potential closer, though as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets, he’ll remain in Triple-A to continue to hone his control. The reasons for the Braves’ apparent concerns with his control aren’t hard to see; in six minor league innings this season (he was previously pitching on a rehab assignment), Cabrera has issued four walks, hit a batter, and thrown three wild pitches. That said, it shouldn’t be hard for Cabrera to force his way back into the mix in short order if he begins to locate his pitches more effectively. Josh Collmenter, Ian Krol and Eric O’Flaherty all have ERAs north of 5.50, and the Braves’ relief corps as a whole has pitched to a 4.99 ERA in 95 2/3 innings this year.
  • The Nationals are weighing whether to keep right-hander Jacob Turner in their struggling bullpen or use him as their fifth starter, writes Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post. Turner has fired six shutout innings in the bullpen but has also impressed the team in a starting role, Castillo notes. The five-spot in the rotation comes up next on Thursday, and Washington’s other option for that outing in Baltimore is right-hander A.J. Cole. Castillo notes, however, that Cole was hit fairly hard by the Phillies this weekend despite escaping with just one run allowed. Right-hander Joe Ross, who was optioned to Triple-A last week, is slated to pitch for Syracuse tonight, so he’s seemingly not an option.
  • Since surrendering back-to-back-to-back homers to blow a save against the Dodgers a bit more than a week ago, Hector Neris has once again ramped up the usage of his splitter, as Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer points out. Gelb notes that 30 of the 43 pitches Neris has thrown since that meltdown have been splitters. The Phillies have “implored” Neris to throw his splitter, which is his best pitch, with more and more frequency, Gelb adds. “The more he uses it, the more hitters have to worry about it, and they can’t sit on his fastball,” says manager Pete Mackanin. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki notes that during Neris’ shakiest stretch this season, he was throwing 40 percent splitters against 60 percent four-seam fastballs. Neris looks to be back on track, and it doesn’t seem as if there’s any real thought in making a ninth-inning change in Philadelphia at this time. (Reminder to fantasy players: you can track all of the latest ninth-inning drama by following MLBTR’s @closernews account on Twitter.)

Phillies To Use Joaquin Benoit As Closer

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The Phillies have made a change in the ninth inning and will use veteran right-hander Joaquin Benoit to close out games “for the time being,” manager Pete Mackanin told reporters today (Twitter link via Ryan Lawrence of PhillyVoice.com).

[Related: Updated Phillies depth chart]

The change comes on the heels of a dreadful run for 2016 closer Jeanmar Gomez, who figures to slide into a lower-leverage role as he looks to bounce back. Dating back to last year’s All-Star break, Gomez has surrendered 30 runs on 47 hits and 13 walks in 30 innings of work. He’s managed a respectable 25 strikeouts and 47.7 percent ground-ball rate in that time, but he’s also been tagged for five homers en route to that ghastly 9.00 earned run average.

Benoit, 39, will bring some veteran experience to the ninth inning, as he’s logged 38 saves between the 2013-16 seasons. He’ll be used for now over younger and arguably higher-upside options like 27-year-old Hector Neris and 24-year-old Edubray Ramos, each of whom will continue to operate as a setup man to the new Philadelphia closer. While it’s probably not the primary motivator behind the decision, using Benoit in the ninth inning will limit the save opportunities for the Phillies’ younger arms, which could hold down their arbitration earnings a bit in a couple of years.

While many believe that it’s only a matter of time until Neris eventually steps into the ninth inning for Mackanin’s Phillies, that coronation may have to wait for another couple of months. It’s possible, though, that one of the Phillies’ quality young setup men could be racking up saves by season’s end, as Benoit is only signed to a one-year, $7.5MM deal and figures to be a prime trade candidate for the Phillies this summer if he’s pitching well. And, if he’s not pitching well, it stands to reason that he’d cede the ninth to one of the younger arms anyhow.

While Benoit got off to a dreadful start with the Mariners last season, he rebounded in emphatic fashion upon being traded to the Blue Jays. A 16-year MLB veteran, Benoit logged a 5.18 ERA in 24 1/3 innings with Seattle but turned in video game numbers in Toronto: a 0.38 ERA with 24 strikeouts against nine walks in 23 2/3 innings. The overall result was a 2.81 ERA with 9.8 K/9 against 4.5 BB/9 in 48 innings. That marked Benoit’s sixth sub-3.00 ERA in the past seven years, though a torn calf muscle suffered late in the year limited his overall workload.

In a poll conducted earlier this afternoon, 37 percent of MLBTR readers felt that Benoit was the right choice to step into the ninth inning, though just over 42 percent feel that the job should have gone to Neris. Fantasy players, as a reminder, you can follow @closernews on Twitter for daily updates on tenuous closer situations and ninth-inning performances.

NL East Notes: Neris, Edgin, Mattingly, Strasburg

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Phillies right-hander Hector Neris has rapidly risen through the club’s ranks in the bullpen, pitching in a setup capacity at the moment and with a future as a potential closer, manager Pete Mackanin tells Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. However, as Salisbury reports, Neris was almost never part of the organization at all. Neris nearly had an agreement with the Royals as an 18-year-old out of the Dominican Republic, but Kansas City backed out of the deal because they doubted the validity of his documentation. It wasn’t until two years later that he was discovered by Phillies scouts, who preempted a scheduled workout with 12 other teams with an offer to sign for what now seems an extreme bargain: a $17K signing bonus. Six years later, Neris is armed with a fastball that can touch the mid-90s and a splitter that Mackanin terms an “invisible” pitch and catcher Carlos Ruiz calls one of the best he’s ever seen. Neris has a 1.04 ERA with a 27-to-4 K/BB ratio through 17 1/3 innings this year on the heels of 40 1/3 innings with a 41-to-10 K/BB ratio in 2015.

More from the NL East…

  • The allotted time for Josh Edgin’s minor league rehab assignment is nearly complete, but as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo writes, the Mets lefty is likely to be optioned to Triple-A at the completion of that window to continue building back up from 2015 Tommy John surgery. Specifically, DiComo writes that Edgin isn’t yet pitching on back-to-back days, and his velocity, which most recently topped out at 88 mph, is a far cry from the 92-93 mph he could throw prior to undergoing the operation.
  • Marlins manager Don Mattingly is making a strong impression in his first year on the job, writes FOX’s Ken Rosenthal in a notes column. The former Dodgers skipper drew nearly identical praise from assistant GM Mike Berger and coach Perry Hill in separate interviews, Rosenthal notes, for the manner in which he commands accountability and his attention to detail. Berger called Mattingly “the right voice at the right time” and added that Mattingly addresses issues that arise “in a way that makes you feel like a million bucks.” The Marlins have had a tumultuous week, with the 80-game suspension of Dee Gordon still looming large over the club, but the club has nonetheless won nine of its past 10 games.
  • The Nationals’ decision to shut down Stephen Strasburg after 159 1/3 innings in 2012, his first season back from Tommy John surgery, has perhaps helped to pave the way for him to sign with another club this winter, writes MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Strasburg’s arm has held up well since that controversial decision, and he’s now poised to hit the open market this coming winter and break former teammate Jordan Zimmermann’s $110MM record for a post-Tommy-John pitcher. While Morosi doesn’t specifically touch on this, it seems particularly difficult to envision the Nats retaining Strasburg in light of their struggles in signing free agents this past offseason due to their need to include deferred money in each of their contract offers. Morosi speculates that Strasburg could receive more than $150MM over six years, which is perfectly reasonable but strikes me as conservative for Strasburg, who will pitch the majority of next season at the age of 28. As Tim Dierkes noted recently in placing Strasburg atop MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings, agent Scott Boras seems likely to target $200MM+, and it’d be a surprise if Strasburg (assuming health) didn’t land an opt-out clause as well.

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