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Hector Neris

Cubs Release Hector Neris

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The Cubs are releasing veteran reliever Hector Neris, reports ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. The team already passed Neris through waivers without making a formal announcement of the move. He went unclaimed. Neris’ spot on the 40-man roster will be filled by right-hander Jack Neely, whose contract is being selected from Triple-A Iowa. Neely was acquired from the Yankees in the deadline trade sending Mark Leiter Jr. to the Bronx.

Neris, 35, was signed to a one-year, $9MM contract over the winter and has had an up-and-down season in what’ll now be his lone year with the Cubs. His 3.89 earned run average is sound, but Neris has blown five of 25 save situations on the season while sporting career-worst strikeout and walk rates of 23.1% and 13.3%, respectively.

The more prominent factor in the decision to release the right-hander, however, could be a vesting player option that would’ve kicked in had Neris reached 60 appearances or 45 games finished on the season. He’s only appeared in 46 games right now and finished a game 33 times. Neris thus would’ve needed to pitch in 14 of Chicago’s remaining 37 games — a 37% usage rate — or recorded the final out in 12 of them, but if he’d done so he’d have secured a $9MM player option for the upcoming season. Given his shaky performance, the Cubs very likely weren’t interested in allowing that provision to be reached.

While Neris clearly hasn’t had his best season, he’s only a year removed from a sparkling 1.71 ERA in 68 1/3 frames for the Astros. That mark is also deceptive, as benefited from a .219 average on balls in play and 90.5% strand rate that combined to tamp down his earned run average. Metrics like FIP (3.83) and SIERA (3.89) were more bearish, but between Neris’ 28.2% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate, he still had the makings of a solid all-around season. More broadly, Neris’ track record from 2019-23 on the whole is quite impressive. He pitched 297 1/3 innings between the Phillies and Astros, combining for a 3.12 ERA (3.33 SIERA), 30.2% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate, 40.1% grounder rate, 0.97 HR/9, 73 holds and 50 saves.

With Neris returning to the open market, he’ll now be available for any team to sign for the remainder of the season. He’ll only cost his new club the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster/injured list. That sum would be subtracted from what the Cubs are paying him, but Chicago remains on the hook for the bulk of his contract regardless. And, so long as Neris signs with a new organization before Sept. 1 — even on a minor league deal — he can be eligible for that team’s postseason roster. (If he’s not on the 40-man at the time, he’d technically need to be a replacement for an injured player on the postseason roster, but such exceptions happen multiple times quite literally every season.)

As for Neely, he’ll be making his big league debut the first time he takes the mound in a Cubs uniform. The 24-year-old righty was the Yankees’ 11th-round pick in 2021 and has emerged as a legitimate bullpen prospect, brandishing a prototypical fastball/slider combination that’s helped him pitch to a combined 2.42 ERA with a whopping 38% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk rate in 48 1/3 innings across the Double-A and Triple-A levels with the Cubs and Yanks this year.

MLB.com ranks Neely 18th among Chicago farmhands, while FanGraphs pegs him 22nd. The towering 6’8″, 245-pound Neely sits around 95 mph with his heater — and likely looks faster than that, given the extension his massive frame generates. FanGraphs credits him with a plus (60-grade) slider, while MLB.com’s report tabs it as a true plus-plus (70-grade) pitch — noting the massive whiff and chase rates that Neely generated on the pitch late in the 2023 season.

Neely won’t gain a full year of big league service in 2024, of course, so the Cubs will control him for at least six full seasons following the current campaign. Even if he’s in the majors for good, Neely can’t be arbitration-eligible until the 2027-28 offseason and wouldn’t hit free agency until the 2030-31 offseason. His contract is only just now being selected to the 40-man roster, however, meaning he’ll likely retain a full slate of three minor league option years beyond the current season. As such, future optional assignments could impact his arbitration and free agent timelines. For now, he’ll simply focus on carrying his excellent upper-minors work over to the big leagues and establishing himself as a credible major league bullpen weapon.

Latest On Cubs’ Deadline Plans

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The Cubs swung perhaps the most shocking trade of the summer so far today when they acquired third baseman Isaac Paredes from the Rays in exchange for young slugger Christopher Morel, relief prospect Hunter Bigge, and pitching prospect Ty Johnson. Paredes, as one of the best hitters available this summer, was rumored to be of interest to a number of win-now clubs such as the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mariners, but instead ended up in Chicago with a club that’s just 51-56 last year and recently saw its president of baseball operations admit the club was prioritizing the future with its approach to this year’s deadline.

The addition of Paredes, who is controllable through the end of the 2027 season, doesn’t necessarily go against that stated ethos. The same can be said for the club’s acquisition of Blue Jays reliever Nate Pearson, who is controlled through the end of the 2026 campaign. It appears the Cubs may be interested in adding pieces that aren’t set to remain with the club long-term, however, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested this afternoon that the Cubs are among the teams showing interest in Giants lefty Blake Snell. The reigning NL Cy Young award winner got off to a rough start this year but has begun to right the ship in recent weeks, leading The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal to suggest yesterday that teams view Snell as likely to opt out of the remainder of his contract at season’s end.

That reported interest in Snell is somewhat surprising, particularly given the fact that the Cubs have seemingly been fielding interest on veteran right-hander Jameson Taillon in recent weeks. The starting rotation has been an undeniable strength for the Cubs this year, as their 3.72 rotation ERA ranks 6th in the majors thanks primarily to elite performances from Taillon, Justin Steele, and Shota Imanaga. While adding a pitcher of Snell’s caliber would surely bolster the club’s rotation and could even allow the club to deal Taillon without suffering a short-term dip in production, the fact that clubs seemingly view Snell as more likely than not to head back to free agency this fall seems to directly contradict the club’s stated plan to focus on the future this summer.

Regardless of what the Cubs’ plans are regarding Taillon or a possible pursuit of Snell, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reported prior to today’s trade for Paredes that the Cubs are “listening” to offers regarding almost anyone on the roster but are focusing on trying to trade from their bullpen mix. Per Sharma, four relief arms in particularly are most frequently brought up by contenders interested in dealing with the Cubs over the coming days: right-handers Hector Neris, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. as well as southpaw Drew Smyly. Of the quartet, Sharma suggests that veterans Smyly and Neris are the most likely to move, as each could become a free agent at season’s end.

Neris, who has posted an uneven season with a 3.68 ERA and 4.54 FIP this year, has a $9MM team option in his contract that will convert into a $9MM player option in the event that he reaches either 60 appearances or 45 games finished this year. With 39 appearances and 27 games finished so far this year, both benchmarks are within the realm of possibility, and Sharma suggests that this aspect of his contract “complicates” the possibility of a trade. Smyly, who sports a 2.79 ERA and 4.52 FIP in 38 2/3 innings of work this year, has a much less complicated contractual situation; his contract comes with a $10MM mutual option that is certain to be declined by one side or the other in favor of a $2.5MM buyout.

While Neris and Smyly seem unlikely to command massive returns, The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, and Katie Woo recently discussed the hefty price tags that have come with controllable relievers this season. Mooney, Sammon, Woo, and Sharma all believe that the Cubs intend to deal Leiter and Merryweather only if they can leverage that sellers’ market for cost-controlled relief arms, with Sharma noting that the asking price is “high” for Leiter in particular. The 33-year-old’s 4.37 ERA this year is unspectacular, but his massive 34.5% strikeout rate, a sparkling 2.18 FIP, and the fact that he can be controlled through the end of the 2026 season all could make him a very appealing addition for contenders in search of relief help. As for Merryweather, the 32-year-old has been injured much of this year but is now healthy, sports a 3.33 ERA and 3.44 FIP since joining the Cubs prior to the 2023 campaign, and comes with the same two additional season of club control that Leiter does.

Another consideration for the Cubs, whether they’re adding or subtracting from the current roster, figures to be the luxury tax. Chicago currently sports a luxury tax payroll of just under $234MM according to RosterResource, a figure that puts them a little more than $3MM under the first threshold of the luxury tax. The addition of a player with a hefty salary like Snell would surely put them well beyond that threshold, while dealing a player like Taillon or even a less expensive relief arm like Neris or Smyly would likely offer the Cubs additional breathing room below the tax threshold. Given the fact that Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts suggested back in February that the “natural” place for the club’s payroll to land was right up against the tax threshold, it would be something of a shock for ownership to greenlight spending beyond the luxury tax in a year where the club evidently is not expecting to make the postseason.

Hoyer: Cubs Prioritizing “2025 And Beyond” At Deadline

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This morning, The Athletic reported that the Cubs did not anticipate buying at the deadline. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer essentially confirmed as much in a chat with reporters just before tonight’s matchup with the Brewers.

Hoyer said the front office will approach the deadline with an eye toward to the future. “Where we are right now, I would have to say that moves only for 2024 – unless things change over the next week – we probably won’t do a lot of moves that only help us for this year,” Chicago’s baseball ops leader said (link via Jesse Rogers of ESPN). “If moves help us for 2025 and beyond I think we’re exceptionally well positioned.”

While Hoyer left open the slight caveat that the situation could change this week, there’s not much ambiguity in how he expects to handle the deadline. He spoke frankly about the team’s “poor position” with regards to this season. “We simply dug a hole with underperformance for two months. That doesn’t affect how I view the organization or how I view things going forward but it certainly affects 2024,” Hoyer said.

It’s clear the Cubs aren’t going to pursue any impending free agents. Hoyer didn’t term Chicago’s approach as buying or selling. That leaves open the possibility of trying to acquire MLB talent that is under team control beyond this season. While that’s not unprecedented (the Reds’ acquisition of Trevor Bauer and the Mets’ deal for Marcus Stroman in 2019 are examples of teams acquiring controllable players at the deadline despite being out of contention), it’s not common. The Cubs would need to outbid teams that are motivated to land those players for both a potential playoff push this summer and future seasons.

Chicago’s farm system is regarded as one of the strongest in the league. That gives Hoyer and his staff the ammunition to make a deal for a controllable player of note, but the likelier outcome is that the Cubs will just move a few short-term veterans. Hoyer shot down any suggestion of a complete teardown, saying it’s “not going to be an option so (there’s) no point in going through the hypothetical.” That makes it unlikely they’d deal core pieces who are under contract or team control beyond this season (e.g. Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Ian Happ, Michael Busch).

Prioritizing 2025 would ordinarily put a team’s rentals on the table, but the Cubs don’t have much to offer in that regard. Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly (whose deal contains a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option) and recent minor league signee Jorge López are the only true rentals. Hendricks is playing on a $16.5MM salary and has an earned run average pushing 7.00. While he has pitched better lately after a dismal start to the season, there’d be minimal interest. The Cubs could try to pay down almost all of the contract to find a trade partner. Hendricks also has full no-trade rights after reaching 10 years of MLB service (at least the last five of which have been with his current team) earlier this season.

Smyly has a 2.92 ERA across 37 innings in a long relief capacity. That solid run prevention isn’t supported by mediocre strikeout and walk rates (21% and 10.2%, respectively). Between his $8.5MM salary and the aforementioned option buyout, there’s likely to be limited interest in the veteran left-hander.

Cody Bellinger has the ability to opt out of the final two years and $50MM on his contract. He has had a fine but unexceptional season, hitting .269/.331/.410 across 344 plate appearances. That’d be a difficult contract to move even if Bellinger were healthy, and he went on the injured list a couple weeks ago with a broken finger.

If the Cubs wanted to more or less run things back in 2025, they’d be in for a very quiet deadline. Yet even if they’re not likely to move long-term core pieces, Chicago could entertain offers on role players who are controllable beyond this season. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that the Yankees and Red Sox were looking at starter Jameson Taillon, who’ll make $18MM annually between 2025-26. Rogers reports that the Cubs have also gotten interest in third baseman/DH Christopher Morel and relievers Héctor Neris, Mark Leiter Jr. and Tyson Miller.

Morel, 25, is under team control through 2028. He’ll be a borderline candidate for the Super Two cutoff for early arbitration next offseason. The Cubs are certainly under no financial pressure to move him, but it’s possible they’re prepared to move on if another team views Morel as a regular. Morel is a good athlete with big power upside who has never found a defensive home. Chicago has unsuccessfully tried him in second base and throughout the outfield in previous seasons. They’ve given him 562 innings at third base this year, hoping his top-of-the-scale arm strength would work at the position. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have each given him very poor grades for his stint at the hot corner.

This also hasn’t been a great season for Morel at the plate. While he has 18 homers, he’s hitting .202 with a .304 on-base mark. It’s a step down from the .241/.311/.471 career slash line that Morel carried into the season. While that’s clearly not ideal, it belies some intriguing developments from a process perspective. Morel has upped his walk rate by a couple points while dramatically slicing his strikeouts. After fanning in over 30% of his plate appearances for his first two seasons, he’s striking out 23.8% of the time this year. An unsustainably low .221 average on balls in play has kept that from materializing into better results.

Even if the Cubs expect Morel’s offensive performance to normalize with an uptick in his average on balls in play, the lack of a defensive fit makes him a difficult player to value. The Cubs could hope to turn third base over to last year’s first-round pick Matt Shaw as soon as next season. They don’t have much in the way of short-term alternatives. If the Cubs traded Morel, they’d probably rely on Miles Mastrobuoni and Patrick Wisdom to cover the position for the rest of the season.

The Cubs should be open to offers on anyone in their bullpen. Neris has handled the ninth inning since Adbert Alzolay went down with a forearm strain. The offseason signee has been shaky, walking 16.1% of opponents and blowing four saves in 17 attempts. Neris had a 1.71 ERA for the Astros last season, but that’s up two runs this year thanks to his control woes. The 35-year-old righty is playing on a $9MM salary and has a matching option for next year. That’s currently a team option but would convert to a player option if Neris pitches in 24 more games.

Given his inconsistency, the Cubs aren’t likely to want Neris back at that price point. They’d presumably be happy to find a trade partner, but the potential for being saddled with a $9MM player option if Neris hits his vesting marker could make other teams wary. There’s less risk with regards to Leiter and Miller. The former is striking out 34.4% of opponents with a 50.6% grounder rate across 34 innings. He’s playing on a $1.5MM salary and is under arbitration control through 2026. Miller, whom the Cubs acquired from Seattle in May, has broken out with a 2.04 ERA while striking out nearly 26% of opponents across 35 1/3 frames.

Whether the Cubs get compelling enough offers to move anyone from that group remains to be seen. They’re not entirely buried in the Wild Card standings, sitting 3.5 games back of the last playoff spot (currently held by the Mets). With four intervening teams to jump, the front office has decided they’re at best a long shot to make the postseason. How much they’re willing to reshape the roster with the ’25 campaign in mind will be one of the bigger questions of the upcoming week.

Cubs Don’t Expect To Be Deadline Buyers

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The Cubs’ deadline trajectory has been an oft-discussed topic over the course of the past few weeks, with the team sitting at or near the bottom of the NL Central but also within striking distance of the final NL Wild Card spot. They’ve ostensibly explored possibilities on both ends of the buy/sell spectrum, showing interest in Toronto catcher Danny Jansen while also reportedly talking with both the Yankees and Red Sox about the potential of a Jameson Taillon trade. The Cubs dropped their first two games coming out of the All-Star break to a D-backs team that’s now tied for the final Wild Card spot, though they dodged a sweep in an extra-inning win Sunday.

While the Cubs are 3.5 games out in the Wild Card hunt, the latest report from Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic indicates that the Cubs aren’t planning to be buyers at next week’s trade deadline. That’s not an indication there’ll be any kind of prominent fire sale for the Cubs either, however. Chicago hopes to contend next year and isn’t likely to move players who are under control unless they receive big league-ready talent in return.

As for the Cubs’ slate of rental players, there’s simply not much to peddle to other clubs. Drew Smyly is sitting on an impressive 2.92 ERA in 37 relief innings, but he’s also walked 10.2% of his opponents and is playing on a contract other teams will want to avoid. Smyly is owed the balance of an $8.5MM salary for the current season (about $3.2MM) in addition to a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for the 2025 season.

Righty Kyle Hendricks is a free agent at season’s end but isn’t going to draw any interest with a $16MM salary and a 6.69 ERA (unless the Cubs eat the entirety of his contract, perhaps). Hector Neris has a 3.74 ERA and 24.2% strikeout rate in 33 2/3 innings — but he’s also walked a career-worst 16.1% of opponents. Neris is playing on a $9MM salary, and his $9MM club option will convert to a player option if he appears in 24 more games this season (60 total). That’s going to turn off any potentially interested parties. Cody Bellinger can become a free agent at season’s end, but he’s on the injured list with a fractured finger and the two opt-out provisions on his three-year deal would’ve made trading him extraordinarily difficult anyhow.

The Athletic’s report at least raises the speculative possibility of listening to offers for starter Justin Steele, though with three-plus seasons of club control remaining, the price would presumably be as high or even higher than the asks for crosstown ace Garrett Crochet (two years of club control remaining) and AL Cy Young front-runner Tarik Skubal (the latter of whom is not expected to be traded). There’s no reason to think the Cubs would outwardly shop Steele, but listening to see if someone steps up with a Juan Soto-esque haul for last year’s fifth-place NL Cy Young finisher is sensible enough.

With regard to Taillon, there’d be some sense to moving him even if the team doesn’t envision a broad-reaching sell-off. In signing any free agent to a long-term deal, a team is most interested in the first couple years of said contract. The 2025-26 seasons will be Taillon’s age-33 and age-34 campaigns. He’ll earn $18MM in each season on his slightly backloaded $68MM deal. Moving him would free up some money to potentially spend on a younger pitcher this offseason — or perhaps on another area of need entirely.

The Cubs control Steele, Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski and Jordan Wicks through at least the 2027 season. Prospects Cade Horton and Brandon Birdsell are rising quickly through the system. There’s some depth from which to deal, and a Taillon trade could bring in talent, shed future payroll and reduce future luxury tax obligations. Taillon wouldn’t command nearly the same type of haul as Steele for a number of reasons (age, salary, general talent level), but there aren’t many arms available so the Cubs could conceivably take advantage of that shortage and see what the market bears.

It’s worth emphasizing, too, that most teams’ plans remain pretty fluid this time of year. While teams facing a gaps of eight, nine, ten or more games in their respective postseason pursuits are sure to focus on selling (just as clubs in the opposite position will primarily focus on adding), nearly half the teams in baseball exist in a relative purgatory between those two ends of the spectrum. There’s currently a three-team tie for the third NL Wild Card spot (Mets, D-backs, Padres), and another five teams are within four games of that final spot — the Cubs among them. In the American League, there are four teams within six games of the final Wild Card spot.

For instance, if the Cubs snapped off six or seven straight wins beginning today, they’d presumably be far more open to the idea of adding some pieces. That’s particularly true because their next three games come against the division-leading Brewers. But a win streak of that nature is always a long shot, and it’s plenty notable that for the time being, Chicago isn’t viewing itself as a team that will trade even lower-caliber minor league talent in exchange for some marginal rental upgrades. Time will tell whether the players on the field can push the front office to take a more aggressive stance, but right now it seems likely the Cubs are in for a relatively quiet deadline.

Cubs Sign Hector Neris

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The Cubs have signed right-hander Hector Neris to a one-year, $9MM contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via X).  There is a $9MM club option attached for the 2025 season, and that vests into a player option if Neris makes at least 60 appearances this season.  Between that option and additional incentive bonuses, the deal could be worth as much as $23.25 over the two seasons.  Neris is represented by Octagon.

Best known for his time as the Phillies’ closer, Neris has spent the last two seasons in Houston, and is coming off (technically) the best year of his decade-long Major League career.  Neris posted a 1.71 ERA over 68 1/3 innings out of the Astros’ bullpen, with an excellent 28.2% strikeout rate and some of the best soft-contact numbers of any pitcher in baseball.

There were a few red flags, however, which is likely why the righty landed what is officially just a one-year guarantee.  Neris’ fastball velocity dropped to 93mph in 2023, rather markedly down from the 94.3mph average of his first nine seasons.  He also had an 11.4% walk rate, marking the third time in the last four seasons that Neris’ walk rate has sat within the bottom 23rd percentile of all pitches.  With a tiny .219 BABIP and a big 90.5% strand rate also aiding his efforts, Neris’ 3.89 SIERA was over two runs higher than his real-world ERA.

It’s fair to assume that some regression is in order, and these troubling secondary metrics aren’t exactly a great sign for a pitcher who turns 35 in June.  However, even if Neris’ 2024 ERA is closer to that 3.89 figure, he still figures to bring value to Chicago’s relief corps in terms of both results and durability.  Neris has a league-best 307 appearances since the start of the 2019 season, and a stint on the COVID-related injury list in 2020 marks the only time Neris has ever appeared on the IL during his big league career.

This kind of durability holds particular appeal for a Cubs team that was hit hard with bullpen injuries down the stretch, which contributed to Chicago’s 12-16 record in September and subsequent near-miss of a wild card berth.  The Cubs were naturally known to be looking for relief help, though president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has traditionally been wary about committing big money to the pen given the year-to-year volatility of many relievers.

In that sense, Neris’ contract represents more aggression even if it remains a one-year deal, considering that the Cubs haven’t gone beyond $5MM on a relief pitcher since signing Craig Kimbrel in June 2019.  Should Neris eat his usual amount of innings, hitting the 60-appearance threshold shouldn’t be too much of an issue, and thus he would top the two-year, $15MM deal that MLBTR projected for the reliever at the start of the offseason.  Neris ranked 46th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.

Neris has a similar clause in his previous deal, a two-year/$17MM pact signed with Houston in the 2021-22 offseason.  The Astros held an $8.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) on Neris for 2024 that vested into a player option if Neris both passed a physical after the 2023 campaign, and if he made at least 110 appearances over the course of the two seasons.  Neris ended pitching in 141 games, and then opted to decline his player option to re-enter the market in search of a richer deal.

Adbert Alzolay blossomed as the Cubs’ closer in 2023, and Neris will now step right in as Wrigleyville’s top setup option.  Neris joins Yency Almonte as newcomers in the relief corps, and it can’t be assumed that the Cubs are now done with their bullpen shopping.  Adding another veteran on at least a minor league deal seems like a possibility, and if Neris represents a bit of a splashy spend, perhaps Chicago could look for another reliever on a guaranteed deal within that sub-$5MM comfort zone.

The Cubs’ payroll now sits at roughly $196.3MM, and there’s still plenty of room to go before Chicago hits the $237MM luxury tax threshold.  A big-ticket signing like Cody Bellinger could naturally absorb a lot of that remaining space, but there’s still plenty of flexibility for Hoyer during what has been a pretty quiet winter overall for the Cubs.  The Shohei Ohtani pursuit carried a lot of the team’s attention in the offseason’s first month, though the Cubs have since added Shota Imanaga and Neris in free agency, while also adding Almonte and Michael Busch in a trade with the Dodgers.

The Astros, Cardinals, Mets, Rangers, and Yankees were all linked to Neris at various points this offseason.  Earlier this month, it seemed as if the Rangers and Yankees were looking like the favorites to sign the right-hander, but Chicago ended up emerging to win the bidding.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Latest On Yankees’ Bullpen Targets

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The Yankees are primarily focused on bullpen additions at this stage of the offseason and have been tied to various free agents over the past few weeks. Right-hander Hector Neris has been among the most oft-cited potential targets for the Yanks, and while SNY’s Andy Martino writes that the team has indeed spoken to the 34-year-old Neris, he also has “serious” interest from teams outside New York. The YES Network’s Jack Curry, meanwhile, hears that Neris isn’t likely to land in the Bronx as of this moment (video link). Reunions with southpaw Wandy Peralta and/or righty Keynan Middleton seem likelier than signing Neris, according to Curry.

Neris, 34, has been an eyeing a one- or two-year deal worth $7-11MM annually, per Martino. For a Yankees club that’s well into the final tier of luxury tax penalties and is a third-time CBT offender, that’d mean effectively paying Neris between $14.7MM and $24.2MM in 2024; any additional free-agent spending at this point will come with a 110% luxury hit. As such, it’s not particularly surprising to see the Yankees looking at lower-cost alternatives.

The 32-year-old Peralta has been a fixture in the Yankees’ bullpen for the past three season. From 2021-23, he logged 153 innings of 2.82 ERA ball with a 21% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and huge 56.5% ground-ball rate. In addition to keeping the ball on the ground at a strong clip, Peralta manages hard contact quite well. He’s been in the 88th percentile or better in opponents’ average exit velocity in each of the past four seasons, per Statcast. The Mets have also spoken to Peralta in recent weeks, though they face the same CBT status and probably feel less urgency to get into any sort of bidding war, as they’re in more of a transitional state than the clearly win-now Yankees.

Middleton, 30, was a deadline pickup by the Yankees and pitched to a 1.88 ERA with a 30.4% strikeout rate and 12.5% walk rate in 14 1/3 innings down the stretch. Inflammation in his right shoulder cost him most of September, but he did make it back the mound for one final appearance on Sept. 29.

That nice showing with the Yankees capped a fine rebound season for the former Angels hurler. In 50 2/3 innings between the White Sox and Yankees, Middleton notched a 3.38 ERA, 30.2% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate and career-best 56.6% ground-ball rate that was 24 percentage points higher than the career mark he carried into the season. The right-hander threw his four-seamer at a career-low 26.3% clip and tossed his changeup at a 42.9% clip that was far and away the highest of his career, which likely accounts for the stark uptick in grounders. Middleton threw more changeups in 2023 (367) than he had in his entire career combined (237). Opponents beat the offering into the ground at a hefty 64.6% clip and managed only .209 average when putting it in play.

Mets Interested In Ryne Stanek, Héctor Neris

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The Mets have interest in free agent right-hander Ryne Stanek, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. That would track with the club’s interest in making further bullpen moves, something that was confirmed by president of baseball operations David Stearns recently. Andy Martino of SNY relays that the club is willing to spend another $10MM or so this offseason, with perhaps more funds available at the deadline if they are contending. Martino adds that the club has spoken to the representatives for free agent righty Héctor Neris.

There has been a lot of turnover in the Mets’ bullpen relative to last year. David Robertson and Dominic Leone were traded at last year’s deadline, then Adam Ottavino opted out of his deal. Various other players were either non-tendered or outrighted.

Since then, the club has given one-year deals to Michael Tonkin, Jorge López and Austin Adams. That’s been in keeping with the club’s slate of short-term moves to bolster other parts of the roster. Sean Manaea got a two-year deal but with an opt-out after year one, while to Luis Severino Harrison Bader and Joey Wendle all inked one-year deals. The bullpen also got a new arm via trade when the Mets acquired Yohan Ramírez from the White Sox, and they’ve given minor league deals to journeymen like Cole Sulser, Yacksel Ríos and others.

It seems the club is still hoping to add another arm in there before Opening Day. Stanek, 32, has had a solid run for the Astros over the past three years. He’s made 186 appearances in that time with a 2.90 earned run average. He has struck out 27% of batters faced but also given out walks a a 12.2% clip. That strikeout rate fell to 23.9% in 2023, but he also cut his walk rate to 9.9%, a career low for him.

Neris, 35 in June, spent the past two years with Houston, with a 2.69 ERA over his 141 appearances. He paired a 29.1% strikeout rate with a 9% walk rate. His ERA dropped from 3.72 in 2022 to 1.71 last year, but that seems to have involved quite a bit of good fortune. His strikeout and walk rates actually worsened compared to the year prior, but his batting average on balls in play dropped by more than 70 points while his strand rate spiked from 63.4% to 90.5%. Neris’ 3.83 FIP and 3.89 SIERA in 2023 were each more than a full run higher than they were in 2022.

Either pitcher could be a sensible option for the Mets. Astros general manager Dana Brown recently said that they have interest in bringing those pitchers back, though that was before they signed Josh Hader and launched themselves over the competitive balance tax threshold. Neris has also reportedly received interest from the Rangers, Yankees and Cardinals.

Despite heading into 2024 with a sort of retool in mind, the Mets have a CBT number of $318MM, per Roster Resource. That’s well over the fourth and final tier of the CBT, which is $297MM this year. As a third-time payor in that stratosphere, the Mets are subject to a 110% tax rate on any further spending, though it seems that won’t be an obstacle to them adding to their bullpen in the coming weeks.

Brown: Graveman Injury Does Not Intensify Astros’ Bullpen Pursuit

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The Astros were already facing the loss of relievers Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek via free agency, and they’ll now also be without righty Kendall Graveman for the 2024 season after he underwent shoulder surgery. The team announced Graveman’s operation earlier today, declining to delve into specifics, but subtracting him from the ’pen equation leaves Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu and rebound hopeful Rafael Montero as the only Houston relievers with even three years of MLB service. The vast majority of Houston’s bullpen options have under one year of MLB service time.

“We’ve been focused on the (bullpen) anyway, this doesn’t intensify it,” general manager Dana Brown tells Chandler Rome of The Athletic. “We just may have to get one more body or one of our guys internally will step up.” Brown made similar comments to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, telling him that the Astros have some in-house relief options “that we really feel good about,” though the GM also conceded that he’s still in the market to bring in an additional bullpen arm from outside the organization.

The free agent market for relievers has dried up over the past couple months. As MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows, there have been 34 relief pitchers signed to Major League contracts this winter. None have signed with Houston. Brown acknowledged to Rome that he’d had talks with the representatives for all of Neris, Maton and Stanek but wouldn’t specify much beyond the fact that he’s “more in the ballpark” with one of Neris/Maton than the other. Rome reported last week that the Astros haven’t pursued Maton aggressively, and he doubled down on that in today’s report.

While many of the top relievers are already off the board, there are still plenty of experienced names from which to choose if Houston is intent on adding a free agent. The ’Stros almost certainly aren’t going to spend at the necessary levels to add top-tier names like Josh Hader and Robert Stephenson, but more affordable options still on the market include Ryan Brasier, John Brebbia, Michael Fulmer, Mychal Givens, Adam Ottavino and Wandy Peralta — to name just a few.

“If we can go get one more [reliever] and use some of the candidates in-house, we feel like we’ll be good,” Brown replied when asked by McTaggart about adding another bullpen arm.

One of the primary questions for the ’Stros will be one of finances. To this point, the only free agent they’ve signed to a big league deal this winter is backup catcher Victor Caratini. That signing placed Houston within $1MM of the $237MM luxury-tax threshold, per Roster Resource. Owner Jim Crane hasn’t publicly declared any mandate to remain shy of that barrier, but the Astros’ lack of activity this winter, coupled with trade rumblings regarding some of their more prominent but expensive players (e.g. Framber Valdez) have combined to fuel speculation about a desire to avoid paying the tax. Houston has crossed the tax threshold only once under Crane’s ownership.

Yankees, Rangers Are “Potential Frontrunners” For Hector Neris

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The market for right-hander Hector Neris may be picking up steam, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that the Yankees and Rangers have emerged as potential frontrunners for the veteran’s services.

After spending the first eight seasons of his career in Philadelphia, Neris hit the open market and landed with the Astros on a two-year deal prior to the 2022 campaign. The deal featured an $8.5MM vesting option ($1MM buyout) for the 2024 campaign, but Neris met the appearance thresholds stipulated in the deal to vest it into a player option and declined it earlier this winter, allowing him to depart Houston and test the open market. It’s easy to see why Neris declined the option. The 34-year-old is coming off a dominant season in Houston where he posted a sterling 1.71 ERA (246 ERA+) with a 28.2% strikeout rate in 68 1/3 innings of work across 71 appearances.

While an elevated 11.4% walk rate and an unbelievable 90.5% strand rate both cast doubt on that fantastic performance, as does his 3.83 FIP, looking at the righty’s time in Houston as a whole highlights Neris as one of the more consistent relievers in the game over the past two seasons. In 133 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2022 campaign, Neris has posted a 2.69 ERA and 3.10 FIP with a 29.1% strikeout rate against a 9% walk rate. That ERA ranks tenth among all relievers with at least 120 innings of work over the past two seasons, while his strikeout rate ranks 14th.

That strong performance during his time in Houston led MLBTR to predict a two-year $15MM contract for Neris on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where Neris was ranked 46th. His market has been fairly quiet this winter, however. While the Astros and Cardinals have both received passing mentions as possible landing spots for the righty this winter, much of the conversation on the right-handed relief market has been focused on Jordan Hicks this winter. With that said, yesterday’s news of a four-year deal between Hicks and the Giants takes the top right-handed reliever off the board and leaves Neris as perhaps the second best righty reliever remaining after Robert Stephenson.

It’s hardly a surprise that the Rangers would have interest in Neris’s services. The reigning World Series champions’ bullpen woes are well-established at this point, as a relief corps that struggled to a 4.77 ERA last year has lost the likes of Aroldis Chapman, Will Smith, and Chris Stratton to free agency. That leaves closer Jose Leclerc as the only reliable, late-inning holdover for the Rangers headed into 2024. While the addition of Kirby Yates earlier this winter should help, Texas will surely need more relief reinforcements this winter if they hope to emerge atop a competitive AL West in 2024 much less return to the World Series. While the club has occasionally been linked to relief ace Josh Hader this winter, the club’s reported budgetary issues could leave the lefty out of their price range, making Neris a more affordable alternative.

By contrast, the Yankees are something of a surprising suitor for the veteran righty. The club’s 3.34 bullpen ERA in 2023 was the best among all major league clubs last year, and while the relief corps lost a key piece in Michael King to the Padres as part of the return for Juan Soto the Bronx bullpen still features the likes of Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loasigia, and Tommy Kahnle as high-leverage arms with Ian Hamilton, Scott Effross, and Victor Gonzalez among those expected to handle the middle innings. Given the strength of that group, it’s fair to wonder if the club’s resources would be better allocated elsewhere, particularly given the question marks remaining in the rotation even after landing Marcus Stroman.

Nonetheless, Andy Martino of SNY confirms that the Yankees are engaged in the relief market at this point in the winter and suggests that a reunion with left-hander Wandy Peralta, who posted a 2.83 ERA despite a 5.05 FIP in 54 innings with the club last year, could be another possible avenue for the team to explore in its search for bullpen upgrades. Martino also notes that the team was heavily involved in the sweepstakes for Hicks before he ultimately settled on heading to San Francisco for a chance to start. With the likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery expected to secure hefty guarantees in free agency and the asking price on trade candidates such as Dylan Cease seemingly out of New York’s comfort zone, it’s possible GM Brian Cashman and his front office have pivoted to bolstering the club’s bullpen as an alternative route to upgrading the club’s pitching staff after focusing on rotation upgrades for much of the winter.

Latest On Cardinals’ Pursuit Of Bullpen Help

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The Cardinals acted quickly to reshape their rotation this offseason, signing right-handers Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn within a span of a week. They’ve since shipped outfielder Tyler O’Neill to the Red Sox in a trade that netted a pair of potential bullpen arms, but they’re not done looking for help in their relief corps. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported earlier this week that the Cards have at least held internal discussions about free agent righty Hector Neris, and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Cardinals hosted star NPB lefty Yuki Matsui for a meeting in St. Louis just yesterday. Goold also again linked the Cards to free agent Phil Maton, to whom they’ve been previously tied.

The meeting with Matsui is the more notable development at the moment. Reports out of Japan back in October pegged the Cardinals as a team with interest in the five-time NPB All-Star, but a sitdown in St. Louis is a more concrete indicator.

The 28-year-old Matsui has saved 30 or more games for the Rakuten Golden Eagles on six different occasions, including this past season’s career-high mark of 39. He pitched 57 1/3 innings in 2023 and worked to a scintillating 1.57 ERA, giving him three straight seasons with an ERA that clocked in under 2.00. Matsui also fanned nearly a third of his opponents and turned in a 5.9% walk rate. Dating back to 2019, the southpaw boasts a 2.20 ERA, 35.8% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate.

Matsui’s track record in Japan is clearly excellent, but there’s at least some reason to think MLB clubs might have some trepidation. He’s listed at just 5’8″ and 167 pounds — a Tim Collins-esque frame that rarely has found much success in the big leagues. MLBTR spoke to multiple scouts and evaluators about Matsui and other international free agents prior to the onset of free agency and received mixed reviews, though Matsui did draw praise for his slider and deceptive delivery. Every team’s opinion on Matsui will vary, of course, and it stands to reason that there are big league clubs that believe he can be a viable late-inning reliever in North American ball — even if he can’t quite replicate his staggering NPB numbers.

Because of his lengthy track record in NPB — he’s pitched 10 full seasons despite his youth — Matsui accrued enough service time to be a free agent who can sign in MLB without being subject to the MLB/NPB posting system. (NPB requires nine years of service to become an unrestricted free agent.) That fact, coupled with his age and his year-over-year excellence could help to mitigate concerns about Matsui’s size and lead to a multi-year deal.

Neris, meanwhile, is more of a known commodity. He’s accrued more than eight years of MLB service time since debuting with the Phillies back in 2014 and has regularly been a high-leverage option for both the Phillies and Astros — the only two clubs for whom he’s pitched to this point in his career. Neris logged 68 1/3 innings with the ’Stros in 2023, posting a pristine 1.71 ERA in his second season with Houston. His two-year, $17MM deal with Houston contained a club option for 2025, but a clause in his contract converted that to a player option depending on Neris’ workload. He remained healthy and effective in his time with Houston and wound up vesting that player option, which he declined in search of another multi-year deal.

Last year’s shiny ERA is certainly eye-catching, though Neris’ 11.4% walk rate and tiny .219 average on balls in play are among the reasons that fielding-independent metrics are more bearish on his most recent performance (3.83 FIP, 3.89 SIERA). Those are still fine marks, of course, and Neris still fanned 28.2% of his opponents with swinging-strike and chase rates (14.1% and 35.1%, respectively) that were well north of the league average. Dating back to 2018, Neris sports a terrific 31.3% strikeout rate. He’s also avoided the injured list almost entirely in his big league career, with his only IL trip coming back in 2020, when he spent three weeks on the Covid-related IL.

Ryan Helsley will likely reprise his role as the Cardinals’ closer and be supported by Giovanny Gallegos and out-of-options southpaw JoJo Romero next season. The remainder of the Cardinals’ bullpen is a bit more fluid, with Andre Pallante, Zack Thompson, Nick Robertson (acquired from Boston for O’Neill) and Matthew Liberatore among the options for manager Oli Marmol. The Cardinals’ activity thus far has pushed their payroll a bit north of $175MM, but president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has previously hinted that there’s room to further add to that figure.

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