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NL Central Notes: Taillon, Brewers, Shaw, Perez, Reds

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Contract extensions, including deals for right-handers Aaron Nola (Phillies) and Luis Severino (Yankees), have been a dominant story across Major League Baseball this week. Sooner than later, the Pirates should follow the Phillies and Yankees in inking their own excellent young righty, Jameson Taillon, for the long haul, Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh-Tribune Review opines. Unlike Philly and New York, both of which secured their aces to four-year guarantees worth $40MM or more, Pittsburgh’s not a big spender, perhaps making it all the more important for the Bucs to lock up Taillon at an affordable price in the near future. However, Taillon – who still has four years of control remaining, including three arbitration-eligible seasons – revealed this week that he and the club “haven’t talked about anything” yet. Barring an unexpected change, the 27-year-old will pitch this season for a relative pittance after logging a 3.20 ERA/3.46 FIP with 8.43 K/9 and 2.17 BB/9 over 191 innings in 2018.

More from the NL Central…

  • Like Taillon, Brewers third baseman Travis Shaw hasn’t discussed an extension with his club, he told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com and other reporters Saturday. Shaw did note that he’d like to be a long-term Brewer, though, and won’t take umbrage at shifting to second base if the team re-signs free-agent third baseman Mike Moustakas. Shaw saw his first major league action at the keystone last year, when he made 39 appearances there (compared to 107 at third). Offensively, the soon-to-be 29-year-old delivered his second straight season of 30-plus home runs, helping him notch his second consecutive campaign with at least 3.5 fWAR. Now in his third-last year of team control, Shaw will earn a team-friendly $4.675MM salary.
  • One of Shaw’s fellow Brewers infielders, Hernan Perez, underwent offseason surgery to remove a bone chip in his left wrist, Haudricourt writes. While Perez didn’t mention the injury last season, “it was bothering me a lot,” he said Saturday. The 27-year-old is healthy now, however, and unless the Brewers make a spring acquisition in the form of Moustakas or another infielder, Perez could see substantial playing time again in 2019. From 2016-18, Perez amassed 1,222 plate appearances – including 334 last season – though he combined to hit just .262/.294/.411 during that three-year period.
  • The Reds have been one of the majors’ most active teams in recent months, and they remain “open for business,” according to president Dick Williams (via John Fay and Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Williams likes the team as it’s currently constructed, but he added, “We have some resources to do deals if we find the right ones.” It’s out of the question Cincinnati will pursue Bryce Harper or Manny Machado in free agency, and it’s unlikely it’ll go back after previous target Dallas Keuchel, Fay and Nightengale suggest. Rather, the Reds could look to bolster their depth, specifically in center field and at a shortstop, per Fay and Nightengale.

Arbitration Updates: 1/13/18

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Here are the arbitration numbers we’ve learned thus far today — all of them coming via the Twitter feed of Jon Heyman of Fan Rag unless otherwise noted:

  • The Giants’ previously known deals with two righty relievers now have dollar values attached. Sam Dyson is slated to earn $4.425MM, while the team will pay righty Cory Gearrin $1.675MM. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected a $4.6MM award for Dyson and a $1.6MM salary for Gearrin.
  • Diamondbacks infielder Chris Owings settled out at $3.4MM, just a shade over the $3.3MM the team will pay outfielder David Peralta. Swartz had both Owings and Peralta at $3.8MM.
  • Right-hander Nick Vincent will take down a $2.75MM payday from the Mariners, coming in just north of his $2.7MM projection.
  • Astros righty Lance McCullers Jr. is set to receive $2.45MM (a bit shy of his projected $2.6MM) in his first season of arb eligibility, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Infielder Hernan Perez receives $1.975MM from the Brewers, falling short of a $2.2MM projection.
  • The Athletics agreed yesterday with righty Liam Hendriks at $1.9MM, matching his projection, and catcher Josh Phegley for $905K. Swartz had Phegley at $1.1MM.
  • White Sox third baseman Yolmer Sanchez has filed at $2.35MM while the team countered at $2.1MM – the same as his projection.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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The deadline for MLB teams to exchange salary arbitration figures with their arbitration-eligible players is today at 1pm ET. As such, there will be a veritable flood of arb agreements piling up in the next few hours — especially in light of a more universal approach to the “file and trial” method for teams. (That is to say, those teams will no longer negotiate one-year deals after arb figures are exchanged and will instead head to a hearing with those players, barring an agreemenr on a multi-year deal.)

Note that you can keep an eye on all of today’s deals using MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker, which can be filtered to show only the results of the team you follow and is also sortable by service time and dollar value of the agreement. All projections that are referenced come from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s annual compilation of projected arbitration salaries.

Onto today’s landslide of deals…

National League West

  • The Rockies have agreed to a $2MM salary with righty Chad Bettis, MLBTR has learned (Twitter link). That’s a fair sight more than his $1.5MM projection. Bettis surely would have had an opportunity to set a bigger platform for himself, but had to battle through testicular cancer before returning to the hill in 2017. Meanwhile, second baseman DJ LeMahieu has settled for a $8.5MM payday in his final year of arbitration, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. That’s just a hair short of the $8.8MM he was pegged for in MLBTR’s projections.
  • Giants second baseman Joe Panik is slated to earn $3.45MM in his first season of arb eligibility, Devan Fink of SB Nation was first to tweet. That’s just a hair shy of the $3.5MM that MLBTR projected. Lefty Will Smith has settled at $2.5MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The club has also announced deals with its remaining arb-eligible players, right-handed relievers Sam Dyson ($4.6MM projection), Hunter Strickland ($1.7MM projection), and Cory Gearrin ($1.6MM projection). (H/t John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, on Twitter). Strickland earns $1.55MM, Nightengale tweets.
  • The Padres and Freddy Galvis agreed to a $6.825MM deal for his lone season of team control in San Diego, tweets Robert Murray of FanRag Sports. Galvis, who spent the first several seasons of his career in Philadelphia before being traded this winter, had been projected to make $7.4MM. Infielder Cory Spangenberg settled at $1.7MM, Heyman tweets, falling below a $2.0MM projection. San Diego has also reached agreements with righty Kirby Yates and outfielder Matt Szczur, the team announced. Yates will earn $1,062,500, Heyman tweets, which is just shy of his $1.1MM projection. Szczur, meanwhile, will get $950K, a healthy boost over his $800K projection, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link).
  • The Diamondbacks agreed to a $7.75MM deal with center fielder A.J. Pollock, Murray tweets. Pollock was projected to earn $8.4MM in his final year of eligibility before free agency. Murray also notes that Brad Boxberger is set to earn $1.85MM next year (Twitter link). Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic adds that lefty Andrew Chafin ($1.2MM projection) and the D-backs have a $1.195MM deal in place. Third baseman Jake Lamb, meanwhile, agreed to a $4.275MM deal with the Diamondbacks, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link). Lamb, eligible for arbitration for the first time, was projected to earn $4.7MM. He’s controllable through 2020. And ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that Chris Herrmann ($1.4MM projection) landed a $1.3MM deal. Righty Taijuan Walker has settled for $4.825MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), which is within range but shy of the $5.0MM he projected for. Lefty Robbie Ray has settled at $3.95MM, per Nightengale (Twitter link), which falls short of his $4.2MM projection. Infielder Nick Ahmed will $1.275MM, per Heyman (via Twitter), which tops the projected figure of $1.1MM. Arizona has also announced that Chris Owings and David Peralta have agreed to terms.
  • The Dodgers are in agreement on a $6MM deal with lefty Alex Wood, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He had projected at $6.4MM. Meanwhile, righty Josh Fields agreed to a $2.2MM deal, tweets Murray. Heyman tweets that Enrique Hernandez will earn $1.6MM. Fields’ projection of $2.2MM was on the money, whereas Hernandez topped his mark by $300K. Fields is controlled through 2019, while Hernandez is controllable through 2020. Southpaw Tony Cingrani gets $2.3MM, Murray tweets, which is just a shade over his $2.2MM projection. Outfielder Joc Pederson has also settled, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter), with Beth Harris of the Associated Press reporting a $2.6MM salary that rather handily tops the $2.0MM that MLBTR projected.

National League Central

  • All three remaining Cardinals arb-eligibles have agreed to deals, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch tweets. Marcell Ozuna will earn $9MM after drawin a much larger $10.9MM projection, Heyman tweets. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had explained that Ozuna likely wouldn’t quite reach the amount the algorithm suggested, though the actual salary still comes in a bit shy of expectations. Lefty Tyler Lyons ($1.3MM projection) receives $1.2MM, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). The Cards have also reached agreement with Michael Wacha for $5.3MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter); he was projected to earn $5.9MM.
  • The Reds agreed to a $860K salary with Anthony DeSclafani, tweets Murray. DeSclafani missed the 2017 season due to arm troubles and had been projected to earn $1.1MM. He’ll remain under Reds control through 2020. Billy Hamilton and the Reds have settled on a one-year deal worth $4.6MM, tweets Murray. A popular trade candidate this offseason, Hamilton was projected to earn $5MM and comes with another two seasons of team control. Murray also conveys that Michael Lorenzen agreed to a $1.3125MM deal, which lines up fairly well with his $1.4MM projection.
  • The Cubs have struck a deal with lefty Justin Wilson, agreeing to a one-year, $4.25MM pact, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link). Wilson, who had been projected at $4.3MM, will be a free agent next winter. The Cubs alsoagreed to a $950K salary with infielder Tommy La Stella, tweets MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat. La Stella was projected to make $1MM in his first offseason of arbitration eligiblity and can be controlled through 2020. Right-hander Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs have agreed to a $4.175MM salary, per Nightengale (on Twitter). That sum comes in a fair bit shy of his projected $4.9MM projection as a first-time eligible player. The Cubs control Hendricks through the 2020 season. Chicago also agreed with Addison Russell, per Wittenmyer (Twitter link). The shortstop will receive $3.2MM for the coming season.
  • Nightengale reports (on Twitter) that the Brewers and breakout closer Corey Knebel settled at $3.65MM. As a Super Two player, Knebel can be controlled through the 2021 season and will be arb-eligible thrice more. He was projected at $4.1MM. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets that the Brewers and right-hander Jimmy Nelson settled at $3.7MM, which falls $1MM shy of his $4.7MM projection (though some of that discrepancy may be due to Nelson’s shoulder injury). Milwaukee also announced a deal for infielders Jonathan Villar (projected at $3MM) and Hernan Perez (projected at $2.2MM). McCalvy reports that Villar will earn $2.55MM, while terms of Perez’s deal are not yet available.
  • The Pirates have avoided arbitration with shortstop Jordy Mercer by settling on a $6.75MM salary for 2018, tweets Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Mercer, who’d been projected to earn $6.5MM, is entering his final year of team control and will be a free agent next winter. Biertempfel also reports that Gerrit Cole will earn that same $6.75MM salary in 2018 — a $3MM raise over last year (Twitter link). He has two years of control remaining and had been projected to earn $7.4MM. Righty George Kontos has also agreed to terms, per Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (via Twitter). He had projected for $2.7MM and will receive a smidge more, at $2,725,000, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link).

National League East

  • The Braves reached a $3.4MM deal with righty Arodys Vizcaino, per Jon Heyman of FanRag (Twitter link). He’d been projected at $3.7MM. The Braves and righty Dan Winkler agreed to a $610K salary for the upcoming season, tweets Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Winkler tossed just 14 1/3 innings in the Majors this year as he made his way back from elbow surgery. He’d projected at $800K.
  • The Marlins and Miguel Rojas agreed to a $1.18MM deal for 2018, Heyman tweets, placing him north of his $1.1MM projection. Rojas should see additional playing time following the Marlins’ wave of trades this offseason. He’s controlled through 2020. Miami also has a deal in place with infielder Derek Dietrich for $2.9MM, Heyman tweets, after projecting at $3.2MM.
  • The Mets were able to settle perhaps their most notable arb case, agreeing to a $7.4MM deal with righty Jacob deGrom, per James Wagner of the New York Times (via Twitter). That’s well shy of his $9.2MM projection, though MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had explained the formula likely overestimated deGrom’s earning power by quite a wide margin. Fellow top righty Noah Syndergaard gets $2.975MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), which goes a fair sight past the $1.9MM projection for the outstanding young starter, whose 2017 season was limited by injury. And reliever AJ Ramos will take home $9.225MM, according to Wagner (via Twitter). That’s just barely past the $9.2MM projection.  Wilmer Flores has also avoided arbitration with the Mets, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports (on Twitter). He’ll receive a $3.4MM salary, which falls within $300K of his projected rate. The Mets control Flores through the 2019 campaign. The Mets and right-hander Matt Harvey agreed to a one-year deal worth $5.625MM, tweets Nightengale. Harvey, who is a free agent next winter, had been projected to earn $5.9MM. Meanwhile, Marc Carig of Newsday tweets that Jeurys Familia will earn $7.925MM for the upcoming year, while Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that catcher Travis d’Arnaud will earn $3.475MM in 2018 (Twitter link). Familia, a free agent next winter, was projected at $7.4MM. The Mets control d’Arnaud through 2019, and his projection was $3.4MM. Righty Hansel Robles gets $900K, Heyman tweets.
  • Also via Nightengale (Twitter link), the Nationals agreed to a $6.475MM salary for 2018 with right-hander Tanner Roark. That falls about $1MM shy of his $7.5MM projection but still represents a noted raise of $4.315MM for Roark, whom the Nats control through 2019. Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post adds that Michael Taylor will earn $2.525MM next year. Taylor is controlled through 2020 and was projected at $2.3MM.
  • The Phillies and Maikel Franco settled on a $2.95MM salary for the 2018 season, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (Twitter link). Franco, a Super Two player who’d been projected at $3.6MM, remains under club control with the Phils through the 2021 season. Second bagger Cesar Hernandez will earn at a $5.1MM rate in 2018, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki (via Twitter). That beats his $4.7MM projection and wraps up this year’s arb business for the Phillies.

Central Notes: Hammel, Soler, Adams, Masterson, Brewers

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Righty Jason Hammel discussed his transition from the Cubs to the Royals with reporters including Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com. The veteran starter says he wasn’t ready to give up starting at this stage, which may have been in the plans had he remained in Chicago. “I felt like I had proven myself over and over and over again for three years there,” he said. “It is what it is. It’s the business side of baseball. And I’m very happy that I’m over here with these guys.” Whether there’s any sense of bitterness, Hammel says he won’t “hold grudges” or “burn a bridge;” he still owns a home in the city and suggests he could even end up returning at some point later in his career.

  • That’s not the only storyline connecting the 2016 champs and their predecessors; there was also a rather notable deal that sent outfielder Jorge Soler to the Royals while delivering star closer Wade Davis to the Cubs. Naturally, the man tasked with harnessing Soler’s evident talent is Dale Sveum — the hitting coach who just happened to have managed the Cubbies before landing in Kansas City. “I still think he’s developing into what he possibly could be,” Sveum said of his new protege. “He’s been very good in camp so far, trying to make adjustments in his legs and things like that, knowing the issues that come with some of the mechanics he’s been using. But like I said, it’s still a development thing. As much as we’d all like to think (otherwise), it’s not a polished product, by no means.”
  • Cardinals first baseman Matt Adams is looking to unify several offseason changes this spring, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. He lost weight, worked on building core strength, and re-worked his swing. Bringing these modifications together, and making it all work against MLB-caliber pitching, has been a challenge. But the organization is remaining patient with the lefty slugger, who’s entering a critical year for charting his future with the club.
  • It doesn’t appear as if the Reds will pursue a deal with free-agent righty Justin Masterson, as Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer suggests on Twitter. While the organization took a look at the former workhorse recently, it evidently did not see enough promise to add another arm to the spring mix.
  • Brewers manager Craig Counsell discussed the status of his team’s bench competition, as Tom Haudricourt and Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel report. Hernan Perez appears to have a very strong shot at making the club as a reserve outfield and infield options. Michael Reed, on the other hand, still “has things to prove at the Triple-A level,” according to Counsell.

Stearns, Counsell Break Down Brewers Heading Into 2017

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As was the case for many other teams who won’t be enjoying a postseason berth, Brewers GM David Stearns and manager Craig Counsell spoke with the media to break down the 2016 season and look ahead to the winter. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tweeted the pertinent comments.

Despite a dismal record (73-89), Milwaukee had many bright spots this year. That means the coming offseason likely won’t see quite as much turnover as occurred last winter, Stearns suggests and McCalvy tweets. There also won’t be any turnover in the coaching staff, with Counsell and all his field staff set to return, per another McCalvy tweet. An extension for Counsell, whose contract runs through next season, is also a possibility, writes Mike Bauman of MLB.com.

“Craig has gotten the most out of this team, and I feel very good about that,” Brewers owner Mark Attanasio said of Counsell, who took the helm in May 2015 after the firing of Ron Roenicke.

In addition to the coaching staff, Chris Carter will likely be back, the Brewers’ GM suggested (via a Haudricourt tweet). His 41 home runs make him a rather easy choice to return as the team’s primary first baseman, though they’ll also drive a big increase in his arbitration earnings. Carter earned a $2.5MM base salary, with $500K in incentives also triggered, after joining the Brewers via free agency. He is controllable in 2018 as well.

Infielder Jonathan Villar’s position is unsettled, says Counsell, but he’ll certainly have a place after an immensely promising campaign (Twitter links via Haudricourt). The 25-year-old put up a .285/.369/.457 slash and contributed 19 home runs with 62 stolen bases. He led the majors in that last mark, though he also led the league in being caught 18 times on the bases. Counsell explains that the team pushed players’ limits on the bases this year, as McCalvy tweets, calling it a “necessary” step in driving the organization forward.

Fellow 25-year-old Hernan Perez wasn’t nearly as productive overall, but he provides value through his versatility, Counsell adds. He swiped 34 bags of his own while batting .272/.302/.428 over 430 plate appearances on the year. With solid glovework, Perez was worth an even two wins above replacement by measure of Baseball-Reference.com, and won’t even be arb-eligible until 2018.

There are, of course, some places to improve as Milwaukee builds back toward contention. As I advocated in assessing the team’s three chief needs, dealing star outfielder Ryan Braun at a peak in his value may well be a way to drive the rebuild forward. Stearns was understandably noncommittal on the point. “We’ll see what happens,” he said with regard to Braun (via Haudricourt, on Twitter).

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