Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros
Expect a quiet offseason for the Astros, who conducted their fire sale in July. Intrigue may come from possible ownership, GM, and league changes.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Carlos Lee, LF/1B: $18.5MM through 2012, ten-and-five rights
- Wandy Rodriguez, SP: $25.5MM through 2013, 2014 club option becomes player option upon trade
- Brett Myers, SP: $14MM through 2012 unless '13 option vests
- Brandon Lyon, RP: $5.5MM through 2012
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- J.A. Happ, SP: $2.3MM
- Alberto Arias, RP: $700K (non-tender candidate)
- Humberto Quintero, C: $1.2MM
Free Agents
- Clint Barmes (unranked SS), Jason Michaels (unranked OF)
As the worst team in baseball, the 2012 Astros seem lacking just about everywhere. Things may get worse before they get better. Second baseman Jose Altuve, starting pitchers Bud Norris and Jordan Lyles, and closer Mark Melancon are bright spots who should be around for a while. Versatile 27-year-old Matt Downs had a nice second half in 2011. However, there may not be many reasons to watch this team in 2012.
The Astros could have over $20MM to work with for the 2012 season if they hold payroll steady, as our arbitration eligibles post shows. There's no need to spend the entire surplus on free agents for a team going nowhere. I'd tinker with the bullpen by bringing in a few upside relievers on one-year deals with an eye on flipping them midseason. Failing that, the 'Stros could at least hope to snag a supplemental pick or two after the season.
Every team needs veterans, but the four the Astros have under contract are somewhat expensive. Rodriguez may be the only one with trade value, but with a potential $36MM owed over 2012-14, the Astros wouldn't get elite prospects in return. There has to be a middle ground between simply dumping the contract, which the Astros decided against when the Rockies claimed him in August, and making outlandish player demands. If Wandy is dealt, the Astros could reinvest in a more affordable veteran starter.
Jim Crane hasn't yet been approved as the next owner of the Astros and his group will have the option to opt out of purchasing the team from Drayton McLane on November 30th. If MLB resolves its questions about past charges against two of Crane's companies, the remaining hurdle would be convincing the new owner to join the AL West. The Angels, A's, Mariners, and Rangers would welcome the Astros, who appear several years away from contention. Should Crane decide GM Ed Wade is not the man to continue rebuilding efforts, the goal becomes finding a patient executive with great scouting acumen. For the Astros' sake, hopefully hard slotting is not part of the next collective bargaining agreement.
Central Notes: Fister, Pence, Cubs
A few items of note regarding teams from MLB's Central divisions, as the Cards fall behind the Phils in Game 1 of the NLDS.
- The Tigers preferred Doug Fister to Ubaldo Jimenez when they were shopping for a pitcher before the trade deadline, according to Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com. Whether that's true, we'll probably never know, but Fister certainly pitched better for Detroit than Jimenez did for Cleveland after the deadline. The Mariners were originally hesitant to move Fister, according to Knobler, but Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski was persistent in pursuing the right-hander.
- The Reds tried to acquire Hunter Pence from the Astros, according to Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News, and GM Walt Jocketty has said he thought he made a better offer to Houston than the one it eventually accepted from the Phillies. McCoy reports that the Astros wanted Devin Mesoraco and adds that lefty Aroldis Chapman was not available.
- The Cubs remain in limbo while waiting to hire a new general manager, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, who notes that the fates of manager Mike Quade, his coaches, and several players are up in the air until someone takes the helm. The Cubs are unlikely to spend lavishly this offseason, according to Sullivan.
Arbitration Eligibles: Houston Astros
The Astros are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: J.A. Happ, Alberto Arias
- Second time: None
- Third time: None
- Fourth time: Humberto Quintero
Having traded Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, and Jeff Keppinger in July, the Astros are left with few arbitration concerns. Arias has missed the last two seasons due to shoulder issues, and is likely to be cut loose.
Happ will be tendered a contract, and should land around $2.3MM. Quintero has at least been a consistent backup catcher, and it'd cost $1.2MM to retain him.
Add $3.5MM for Happ and Quintero to the team's $47.25MM in 2012 commitments, and the Astros are around $51MM before accounting for minimum salary players. They entered this season with a $77MM payroll, so there's room to tinker on the free agent market and perhaps add some veteran placeholders.
Quick Hits: Burrell, Beltran, Lee, Kuo
Evan Longoria, Dan Johnson, Chris Carpenter and Robert Andino delivered in big moments for their respective teams on this incredible night of baseball, as the Cardinals and Rays won the wild cards. Some links as the season winds down…
- Pat Burrell told Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News that he'll give his chronic foot strain a month to recover before he decides on his future in baseball. If he does play again, it would only be with the Giants.
- Carlos Beltran told Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle that he'll give the Giants the first chance to sign him when he hits free agency this offseason (Twitter link). The Giants will have five days of exclusive negotiating rights after the World Series, plus the month of October.
- Carlos Lee hinted that he might retire after the 2012 season, when his six-year, $100MM contract expires with the Astros, according to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. Lee, 35, says he wants to spend more time with his family.
- Hong-Chih Kuo told Ken Gurnick of MLB.com that he needs a break and is currently unsure if he'll play again. "If I want to still play and somebody wants to give me a try, I play," he said. "If not, fine with me. I'll miss it." The 30-year-old was sidelined with an anxiety disorder this year and may return home to Taiwan and open a restaurant. The Dodgers will consider non-tendering Kuo and he said he'll understand if they do.
NL Central Notes: Cubs, Cordero, Pirates, Barmes
The Astros are playing spoiler against a former bitter rival of theirs tonight, as they try to halt the Cardinals’ improbable playoff bid. Here are some notes from the NL Central, while the two clubs play in Houston…
- Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts told Cubs reporters, including Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, that he's looking to name a GM as soon as possible, but cautions that there's "no point in rushing" the process. Ricketts pointed to the Diamondbacks to remind reporters that turnarounds can happen quickly in baseball under the right circumstances.
- Ricketts added that he expects GM candidates to see the four-year extension that director of player personnel Oneri Fleita obtained this summer as a positive.
- It's looking like the Reds will complete a deal with Francisco Cordero instead of picking up his $12MM option for 2012 ($1MM buyout), according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer (on Twitter). We heard yesterday that Reds GM Walt Jocketty is optimistic about working out a deal with his closer. For the latest on Cordero and other MLB closers, check out CloserNews.com.
- Ryan Doumit told Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that he thinks his chances of returning to Pittsburgh in 2012 are "slim" (Twitter link). The Pirates hold a $7.25MM option ($500K buyout) for the backstop next year.
- Clint Barmes told MLB.com's Brian McTaggart that he would like to return to the Astros next year. However, the shortstop is open to exploring other options and he realizes that Houston’s ownership changes could affect offseason plans. Earlier in the month, I revisited the trade that sent Barmes to the Astros.
Astros Notes: Free Agents, Barmes, Sale
Stephen Goff of Examiner spoke to several people within the Astros organization recently, so let's round up the news. All links go to Goff's Twitter feed…
- GM Ed Wade does not expect the team to be very active in this winter's free agent market. "It would run contrary to what we did at the trade deadline," he said. "Our goal is to trend to a younger club to where we can sustain success for an extended period."
- Wade likes the job Clint Barmes has done this year and would like to re-sign him, but the team's "economic environment" might not allow them to do so. Ben Nicholson-Smith revisited the trade that brough Barmes to Houston earlier this month.
- Owner Drayton McLane said he expects the final sale of the team to Jim Crane to be approved by MLB within the next three or four weeks.
Rosenthal On Darvish, Marlins, White Sox, Astros
Let's take a look at what FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal has for us in his latest edition of Full Count..
- It's expected that C.C. Sabathia will opt out of his deal this offseason, but after that the most coveted pitcher this offseason might not be the Rangers' C.J. Wilson. Rather, some say it could be Japanese hurler Yu Darvish. Darvish is not a free agent, he'll have to be posted by his Japanese club and after that his rights will go to the highest bidder. The process has backfired on MLB teams before, but Darvish is seen as different because he has lived outside of his comfort zone in Japan for virtually all of his life.
- Improbable as it might seen, a rival GM says that there is logic to the Marlins making a run for either Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols this winter. The Fish are moving into a new ballpark but there are still questions about whether they can sustain long-term success. Either slugger would obviously be a major draw in tandem with Mike Stanton and that would surely get fans in the seats.
- If Ozzie Guillen lands with the Marlins and Tony La Russa stays with the Cardinals, the identity of the White Sox's next manager could hinge on the type of team they field in 2012. If they go all in, they'll likely want a veteran manager and if they go with a younger club they'll probably want a younger manager. With Juan Pierre and Mark Buerhle approaching free agency and Carlos Quentin and John Danks as trade candidates, the time is now if the club wants to rebuild.
- Baseball's biggest problem with approving Jim Crane as Astros owner stem from concerns about his past business practices and whether he would make a good long-term owner. Crane's deal with the current owner Drayton McLane expires on November 30th and meanwhile, baseball's labor talks continue. The players are reluctant to go to two additional wild cards unless there are fifteen teams in each league. The easiest way to do that would be to shift the Astros to the American League, but for now the club remains on hold.
Astros To Select First Overall In 2012
The Astros are on the clock. The Twins won today, ending their 11-game losing streak and assuring Houston of the top pick in the 2012 draft. As our Reverse Standings page shows, there's no way that the Twins will finish with a worse record than the Astros this year.
The Astros will finish with at least 102 losses (even if they don't lose again) and the Twins reached the 60-win plateau with today's win, which means they won't exceed 102 losses. Because the Astros finished with a worse record (73-78) than the Twins (91-60) a year ago, Houston would win a tiebreaker and select first overall in 2012 should both clubs happen to finish 60-102 this year.
Houston has selected first overall twice before, though both selections came long before they hired current scouting director Bobby Heck. Houston selected Floyd Bannister first overall in 1976 and selected Phil Nevin with the top choice in 1992, five picks ahead of Derek Jeter.
NL Central Notes: Snyder, Cardinals, Cubs, Astros
The Cardinals are optimistic that Matt Holliday will return from a finger injury before the season ends, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Getting the star left fielder would be a major boost for the Cardinals, who are chasing the Braves in the National League Wild Card race. Here's the latest on the NL Central…
- Chris Snyder told Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that he'd like the Pirates to pick up his $6.75MM option for 2012 (Twitter link). It seems more likely that they'll pay a $750K buyout for the catcher, who has a .772 OPS in 119 plate appearances this year.
- Cardinals GM John Mozeliak says talks between Rafael Furcal and the Cardinals are progressing slowly, according to Nate Latsch and Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. The Cardinals aren't gaining momentum on an extension for Lance Berkman, either.
- Gary Hughes, who was named one of the top ten scouts of the century by Baseball America, told the Cubs that he will not return in 2012, according to MLB.com's Carrie Muskat. Hughes, a 45-year veteran of pro baseball had been a special assistant under former GM Jim Hendry
- Astros executives met with manager Brad Mills and his coaching staff yesterday to discuss the past year and look ahead to the 2012 roster, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. The executives and field staff exchanged ideas about players, particularly free agents and those who will be out of options next Spring Training.
- The Astros are inviting all of their coaches back for 2012, according to senior director of social media Alyson Footer (on Twitter). GM Ed Wade told McTaggart that pitching coach Doug Brocail has yet to commit to returning in 2012 (Twitter link).
- First overall pick Gerrit Cole is likely to pitch in the Arizona Fall League this year, Jenifer Langosch writes at MLB.com. The Pirates haven't made an official announcement regarding the right-hander's participation at this point.
Quick Hits: Astros, Yankees, Mets, Pujols, Fielder
Some links on this Saturday afternoon..
- Astros GM Ed Wade isn't sure yet if pitching coach Doug Brocail will return next year, writes MLB.com's Brian McTaggart. Brocail retired after the 2009 season and was working as a special assistant to Wade this year when he took over as pitching coach when Brad Arnsberg was let go in June.
- Both the Yankees and Mets will have to start making some critical decisions about which prospects they need to protect ahead of the Rule V draft this winter, writes Tim Bontemps of the New York Post. It seems likely that the Mets will roll the dice and leave once-promising right-hander Brad Holt unprotected while the Bombers could leave switch-pitcher Pat Venditte exposed.
- With Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder both hitting the free agent market this winter, the battle between agents Dan Lozano and Scott Boras will be fun to watch, writes Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
- Giants managing partner and CEO Bill Neukom wanted the team to take a more patient approach to hitting when he took over but Scott Ostler of the San Francisco Chronicle says that never came to be.