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What Could The Padres Expect For Dylan Cease?

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The Padres have yet to make a significant move this offseason. San Diego hasn't made a single major league free agent or trade acquisition. It's clear they're hamstrung financially. The complaint filed by Peter Seidler's widow against the late owner's brothers only adds to the overall organizational uncertainty.

If San Diego is going to make any upgrades of note, they'll need to first offload some money. It seems the Padres intend to get below the $241MM luxury tax threshold. RosterResource calculates their CBT number around $244MM. There are a few ways they could try to accomplish that. The ideal scenario would be to offload some of the money owed to Xander Bogaerts or Jake Cronenworth, but trading an underwater deal isn't easy. San Diego could move Luis Arraez but seems to want more value in return than other teams are willing to offer.

As a result, Dylan Cease has been at the periphery of offseason trade rumors. Reporting at the Winter Meetings suggested that the right-hander was available. There hasn't been any indication that they've moved close to a deal in the past month. It seems they're mostly status quo. ESPN's Jeff Passan wrote this week that the Padres have been willing to hear other teams out on Cease, though he doesn't suggest that San Diego is actively shopping him.

Unlike Bogaerts, Arraez and Cronenworth, Cease holds immense trade value. The Padres could demand a significant package while offloading his entire salary. They'd need to weigh that against subtracting arguably their best starter from a rotation that comprises Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish and a host of question marks.

If the Padres decide they're motivated to move Cease within the next two months, what kind of return should they expect? A few trades over the past two offseasons provide some indications about how the market could value him.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers! Anthony took questions on whether the Cubs could extend Kyle Tucker, the Angels/Pete Alonso rumors, Robbie Ray's trade candidacy, whether the Marlins would move Sandy Alcantara, the Yankees' third base options, next moves for the Brewers, and much more.

 

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Which Teams Can Still Use Nolan Arenado?

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The Cardinals expected to have traded Nolan Arenado by now. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak suggested at the Winter Meetings that a deal could come together within a week or two. That probably would've been the case had the eight-time All-Star not used his no-trade clause to kill talks about a move to the Astros.

That leaves St. Louis in an awkward position. They've publicly shopped Arenado. He's seemingly amenable to waiving his no-trade clause in certain circumstances. For whatever reason, he wasn't interested in going to Houston last month. Subsequent reporting indicated he could consider the Astros in the future, but the team moved on to Christian Walker almost immediately and no longer needs a corner infielder. The Cardinals need to look elsewhere.

Will Sammon and Katie Woo of the Athletic reported this week that there's been minimal traction on an Arenado trade since the Houston talks collapsed. The Yankees, long a speculative fit, are apparently not as interested as it first seemed. The YES Network's Jack Curry pushed back against that notion last week. Jon Heyman also suggested in a Bleacher Report live stream yesterday that the Yankees were more likely to stick with DJ LeMahieu than to go after Arenado.

Where does that leave Mozeliak and company?

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MLB Mailbag: Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, Mariners, Torkelson, Alonso, Bregman

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Welcome to the first mailbag of 2025!  In this one we get into what the Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, and Mariners might do, the future of first basemen Spencer Torkelson and Pete Alonso, outfield options for the Astros, various Alex Bregman destinations, and much more.

John asks:

Braves fan here wondering if the Braves will re-sign AJ Minter?

Bill asks:

With market choices dwindling whom might Atlanta pursue in the pitcher/outfield categories? Or will they rely on young pitching hopes and current outfield options?

Phillip asks:

What do you see the Atlanta Braves doing? We need another outfielder, starting pitcher, and 2 relief pitchers. Are we going to be thrifty or are we going for quality?

Bruce asks:

Can you predict what the usually unpredictable Alex Anthopolous will acquire to play LF and SS and SP down the 2025 Atlanta Braves?

In attempting to guess how the rest of the Braves' offseason will go, it may be helpful to first project their payroll.  President of baseball operations and GM Alex Anthopoulos said in October payroll would be going up.

The Braves' actions thus far this offseason do not match those of a team planning to increase payroll: declining Travis d'Arnaud's option, dumping Jorge Soler, moving money around with the Reynaldo Lopez and Aaron Bummer extensions (though not in a way that helps their CBT payroll), non-tendering Ramon Laureano, and most importantly, failing to sign any notable free agents.  It's also true that Anthopoulos' October comments came before the Braves learned more information about the timelines of Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, and Joe Jimenez.  I could see how that would affect payroll allocation, but not why it would affect the total payroll.

The Braves appear to have a $220MM CBT payroll at present, and on December 11th David O'Brien of The Athletic wrote that the Braves "don’t seem inclined to go too far above that $241 million [luxury tax] threshold."  That's after running a $276MM CBT payroll in 2024.  Perhaps in his October "payroll is going up" comments, Anthopoulos was threading a needle where the team's 26-man Opening Day actual payroll will increase, but their CBT payroll will not.  Last year's Opening Day actual payroll was $222MM and the team is at $197MM at present.  It's also likely the team would like to keep powder dry for midseason additions.

Given O'Brien's comment, we probably shouldn't project much more than $25MM in additional AAV to be added this offseason.  The second tax threshold of $261MM could be a ceiling on the CBT payroll.  So how might Anthopoulos improve the team with many major names now off the board?

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat this afternoon, exclusively for Front Office subscribers!

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Exploring A Potential Pablo Lopez Trade

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It's been a quiet offseason for the Twins as the front office faces payroll constraints for a second straight offseason. Minnesota's signing of Carlos Correa and extension for Pablo Lopez in the 2022-23 offseason -- among other moves -- pushed the club's payroll up into the $150-160MM range. Both deals came just months after owner Jim Pohlad took a step back as his nephew, Joe Pohlad, took on a far more prominent role. That ownership shuffle, coupled with the long-term nature of those deals, made it look like there'd be a lasting bump in payroll.

Clearly, that hasn't been the case. Amid uncertainty regarding the team's television broadcast rights, ownership slashed payroll back down to the $130MM range for the 2024 season. The Twins largely sat out the 2023-24 offseason, with their largest moves coming via the trade market (dealing Jorge Polanco to Seattle) and in the bargain aisle of free agency (a $5.25MM deal for Carlos Santana being their most expensive). At the end of the 2024 season, Joe Pohlad announced his intent to explore a potential sale of the team.

That's led to even more uncertainty and inflexibility with the budget this offseason, as evidenced by the Twins' complete lack of activity. RosterResource projects the Twins' payroll at about $142MM. Ownership would like that back into the $130MM range again. It's expected that at some point they'll trade righty Chris Paddack, whose $7.5MM salary looks quite affordable when juxtaposed with the aggressive market for starters this winter. They'll shop Christian Vazquez but would need to eat some of his $10MM salary. A trade of their excellent utilityman, Willi Castro, could also be explored.

Speculation regarding the possibility of larger-scale deals was inevitable, but president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said early in the offseason that the team views Correa, Lopez and Byron Buxton as "key" players to the team's 2025 outlook. Falvey has emphasized that the Twins are intent on contending in 2025, even as it looks like he'll be forced to find ways to trim player payroll before making a single addition.

A Correa trade always seemed far-fetched. He's owed $128MM over the next four years and has a full no-trade clause. Buxton also has full no-trade protection. However, the recent report from ESPN's Jeff Passan that the Twins have at least listened to offers on Lopez presents a far more compelling thought exercise. Lopez's contract is teeming with surplus value in a way that isn't true -- or isn't as true, anyway -- of the Twins' other most expensive players.

Trading Lopez would ignite swift backlash from an already frustrated and put-off fanbase. At the same time, the huge return and the potential avenues for restructuring the team in the wake of such a surprising deal are compelling enough that it's understandable if the Twins perform due diligence to at least see what the market might bear.

Let's dive into an admittedly very hypothetical look at why a Lopez trade could actually appeal to the Twins, who could be involved, and how the Twins could proceed (and possibly improve) in the aftermath.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers!

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Where Can The Orioles Turn For A Top-End Starter?

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The Orioles made one necessary rotation upgrade this week, signing Tomoyuki Sugano to a $13MM deal on Monday. That should be the first of multiple starting pitching acquisitions. Sugano projects as a back-of-the-rotation arm at this stage of his career. The O's need for an ace persists.

Baltimore addressed that last winter via trade. The O's acquired one year of control over Corbin Burnes for Joey Ortiz and DL Hall in what was GM Mike Elias' boldest trade to date. Burnes pitched as well as the O's could've expected, turning in a 2.92 ERA across 32 regular season starts to earn a fifth-place finish in Cy Young balloting. He fired eight innings of one-run ball in his lone postseason appearance. Unfortunately, the offense cratered down the stretch and scored a grand total of one run in their two playoff games. The Royals swept them by respective 1-0 and 2-1 margins.

Burnes is a free agent, leaving Elias and his staff on the hunt for another top-end arm. Where could they turn?

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MLB Mailbag: Burnes, Soto, Brewers, Dodgers, A’s, Astros

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Today's mailbag gets into where Corbin Burnes might go, why we write about players' salaries, whether Juan Soto will opt out, how the Brewers might sort out their outfield, chances of the Dodgers signing various free agents, and what's next for the A's.

Please note that this mailbag was initially published shortly before news of the Cody Bellinger trade broke.  I'm sure we'll get into that trade in the next mailbag, but since some of the Bellinger material in the mailbag was usurped by the trade, I've added several bonus Astros questions and answers to the end.

Joel asks:

Why is there not even a shred of a suggestion anywhere that the Mets have interest in Corbin Burnes? If they were willing to pay dinosaurs like Scherzer and Verlander, why not pay Burnes? Otherwise, they'll lose a lot of games 7-5.

Tony asks:

Corbin Burnes will sign with ?

Bud asks:

As a Giant fan it’s a little concerning hearing the rumors of Corbin Burns nearing a deal with the team and then a week or more of quiet. I was hoping for more moves…

Neil asks:

Will Giants sign Burnes or will it be another pitcher?

David Stearns was the GM of the Brewers when the team drafted Burnes in the fourth round out of Saint Mary's College of California in 2016.  With the Mets needing three starters this winter, it was natural to expect Stearns to be interested.  While it's true Stearns topped out at $15.5MM for a free agent starter with the Brewers (Jhoulys Chacin in 2016), it's also true that the Mets have way more money than the Brewers.

Even a comparison to Stearns' 2023-24 offseason would not be fair, because that was, as my colleague Darragh McDonald wrote, "a sort of bridge year."  Hence the relatively affordable additions of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Adrian Houser.

To date, the Mets have made the ownership-driven decision to sign Juan Soto to a record-shattering contract, while Stearns has added Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas on two-year deals (if Holmes uses his opt-out) to help fill out the rotation.  Kodai Senga barely pitched this year, and David Peterson's 21 starts matched a career high.  Paul Blackburn is a back of the rotation type who has battled injuries, including October back surgery.  The rotation lacks reliability, which would likely be solved by Burnes.

Stearns seems more interested in the trade market of late, showing interest in Garrett Crochet and Luis Castillo this month.  Speculatively, they could go after Dylan Cease as well.  On December 7th, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic wrote that the Mets had interest in Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty, and Nick Pivetta.  Around that time, Tim Healey of Newsday wrote that the Mets were not in on Max Fried and are not expected to land Burnes.  It would seem that Stearns simply does not like the return on investment of huge pitching contracts (at least for the players available this winter) and does not want to spend $250MM+ on Burnes.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers! Anthony discussed the Winter Meetings' biggest activity and the recent trades of Kyle Tucker, Andrés Giménez and Devin Williams. He touched on what's next for the Guardians, Pirates, Giants and Angels, among others, and weighed in on whether Willy Adames and Matt Chapman form the best left side infield duo in MLB.

 

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