- Do you want to spend today at a cookout with your friends, family and neighbors? Or do you want to spend it talking to a Canadian about baseball on the internet?
- Use your freedom to decide on that and I'll be back at 2pm Central. Feel free to drop questions in the meantime.
- Hello.
- Do you hear the chimes of freedom where you are?
- There's construction going on outside my home, so I can barely hear myself think.
- Let's enjoy discussing baseball together.
Western skies
- Happy four days after Canada Day! The Braves are saying all the right things, but they’re going to more than tweak before the deadline, right? I’ve thought for some time they will use the All-Star stuff as a showcase/diversion before making any big moves. Then what?
Steve
- Do you think the Braves sell after the Schwellenbach news? Would Olson to the Red Sox for Casas plus some other pieces be possible?
notsohotlanta
- As the Braves continue their quest to prove they are pulseless ,when does the sale/trade begin? When does Snitker and the hitting staff exit?
Darragh McDonald
- Barring a red-hot streak in the coming weeks, I do think Atlanta needs to accept their fate and sell. I assume that, internally, they are aware things aren't going well.
- I understand why AA felt the need to project outward confidence. You don't want to tell your players you're waving the white flag.
- But making a run with no Sale, Schwellenbach, Lopez or AJSS is really hard to see.
- FanGraphs gives them just a 13.5% chance of making the playoffs as of this moment. Unless they crack off a 13-game winning streak or something, I think they will do some selling, at least of impending free agents.
- I don't think Olson will be available.
- As for Snitker and the staff, that I don't know. The World Series victory surely gives him a lot of rope but things have been trending down for a few years now.
-
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MLBTR Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good morning! We’ll get going at 1pm CT, but feel free to send in questions ahead of time, as always.
- Good afternoon!
Grover
- if anyone does pick up candelario who will it be
Steve Adams
- Brewers, Astros, Mariners could all take a more or less free look while they wait for more appealing options to become available on the trade market.
Dinelson Lament
- Assuming he stays healthy and reaches free agency, what type of contract might Skubal command in the 2026-2027 off season?
Steve Adams
- Something north of $400MM
Ben
- Will Eugenio Suarez cost a top 100 prospect, considering no top 100 prospects were traded at last year’s deadline, including for multi-year controllable players, while Geno is a rental?
Steve Adams
- “Top 100” prospect are subjective. There are several different lists, and the gap between the No. 100 prospect and the No. 130 prospect is pretty negligible. The Tigers probably had Thayron Liranzo as a top-100 guy when they got him as the Flaherty headliner last year. He was generally considered a 50 FV prospect, which is where all back-of-the-top-100 guys are. Within a few weeks, he was on most top-100 lists.Top-100 rankings are far more volatile than a lot of people give them credit for, and they kind of inherently misrepresent that there’s a larger gap between 100 and 150 than there really is. (Or between, say, 60 and 100, for that matter).At any rate, I don’t think Suarez will command a 50 FV type of prospect, but a 45 type headlining the deal wouldn’t surprise me.
Utah Fan
- Who gets traded by the TWINS at the deadline, if their recent decline continues?
Steve Adams
- Willi Castro, Chris Paddack, Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe all make sense. Someone might grab Ty France as a cheap RH bat off the bench.
Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! Sorry to start a bit later than usual today. Schedule moved around a bit with Darragh having a well-deserved day off. We'll get going at 3:30pm CT, but feel free to ask questions ahead of time, as always.
- Good afternoon! Let's get underway
El Chupacabra
- If the Royals were to trade Seth Lugo today, how much more - or less - would the return likely be vs. if they waited until the trade deadline?
Steve Adams
- I don't think the return would be materially different. You could say the acquiring team might be forced to give up more to compensate for the extra month of control, but there'd also be fewer teams bidding, which could impact the price as well. The extent to which those offset each other can really only be theorized upon.For what it's worth, I also don't expect the Royals to trade Lugo. They're intent on contending, and GM JJ Picollo was recently quoted on record when discussing how important back-to-back playoff appearances would be.
Further, as I often say, player options/opt-outs are so hard to navigate in trade talks. Eventually we'll see a prominent player with an opt-out at season's end traded, but these guys never really move in actuality. The team trading for Lugo would have to know he's either going to pitch well and opt out or that he'd get hurt and/or see his performance tank and forgo the out... thus saddling them with an unwanted salary on the 2026 books.
- That makes it really hard to agree on prospects to be exchanged in the deal, as the Royals will want to market him like a playoff-caliber starter but the acquiring team knows that if he bombs, they're essentially taking on a bad contract. Pricing in that downside makes the trade less appealing for Kansas City. And, again, the Royals probably don't really want to trade Lugo in the first place.
Stockholm, AZ
- What are the Diamondbacks gonna do? That was a crap series against Miami, and now they’re under .500. Season beyond rescue? I had such high hopes..
Steve Adams
- I just have a hard time seeing them wind up in genuine contention with Carroll out, Burnes out, and Zac Gallen pitching more like Zack Godley. Even if this iteration of the D-backs got to the postseason, could they feel good about a playoff rotation of this version of Gallen and Merrill Kelly leading the way, followed by one of Pfaadt or E-Rod? And without Justin Martinez or AJ Puk in the bullpen? It just feels like a soft reset (trading Suarez, Kelly, Gallen, etc.) is kind of inevitable to me.
RoxTalks
- Does the Rockies' nepotism hiring of Monfort's son to be executive VP basically ensure this team will be bad forever? It is extremely difficult to continue to support this team. Cannot believe the league allows stuff like this.
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MLBTR Chat Transcript
- Beads, bees, stew preparation, and maybe even some baseball discussion….we’ve got it all here in the latest edition of the Weekend Chat!
ChrisMC88
- What should the mets prioritize more at this point, pitching or offense.. both need attention.. or even maybe look deeper into their hitting coaches.
Mark P
- Things have looked rough in general for the Mets over the last couple of weeks, but their rotation is still the bigger need than their lineup. I expect the front office to pursue help in both areas, but it seems like the patchwork that has been the Mets’ rotation is simply starting to fray
Brian
- Do u think Crawford(Phillies prospect) has better change to play for Phillies or be traded by deadline this year???
Mark P
- Seems like a better chance that he’ll stick with the Phillies, since they need OF help already.
John
- Is there a world there the orioles don’t sell?
Mark P
- Because baseball is baseball, the O’s could turn around and win 11 of their next 13 games and nobody would bat an eye.
That being said, it would take an extreme hot stretch like that in July to get the O’s fully back into the playoff picture. Feels like they just dug themselves into too big a hole too early.
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Hey everyone, hope you've had a good week!
Tony
- Thanks for the chat! My question is Cardinal related. It appears that their biggest needs are bullpen and right handed hitting outfield. If they packaged Fedde and Gorman (change of scenery) and a minor league catcher (or Pages from the MLB team) what kind of returns would you expect? Any impact players?
Anthony Franco
- Not getting any impact talent with those guys. I think they each have slightly positive trade value but that's a quantity over quality package at this point. You'd probably need a team that really likes Pages' glove and thinks he's a low-end #1 catcher to get anything of note back
Sandy
- All of the mock trades for me have been wild. If seen mocks that include both Leo De Vries & Ethan Salas is crazy. What type of package do the Marlins get for me
Anthony Franco
- I have no idea what you're referring to on the mock specifics but yeah, they wouldn't get either De Vries or Salas
- I do think they can pull a 50-FV type headliner though, someone who'd fall into the back half of the top 100 range. The velocity's still there, the command has been better lately, and he's making fourth/fifth starter money
Grateful Follower
- Do you think any team (Tampa?) might attempt to acquire Soderstrom from the A’s with an eye towards possibly returning him to Catcher (even if the switchback was to wait until next year)? Or has that ship sailed?
Anthony Franco
- That'd be a really interesting one. I can see the logic, especially if they pull a controllable MLB starter. Doesn't even necessarily need to be a catcher conversion -- that'd be really tough to do midseason especially -- but just finding a team that can put him back at first base makes some sense
Utah Fan
- Who would be targets for the TWINS if they are buyers at the deadline?
Anthony Franco
- Man, any kind of functional pitching. Aside from Ryan, the staff has totally collapsed after the López and Matthews injuries. Feels like they need multiple relievers and at least one new starter if they're going to try to make it work this year
Knock-Knock
- If Garver is your backup catcher you’re doing great at the position. He was brought in to DH for the M's, but that didn’t work out. He is overqualified for his current job, but I’d rather have him sit in the dugout 4 days in a row than bring up Ford to sit. With Cal as the forever catcher, Ford is tradeable. Why bring him up and run the risk of diminishing his value or to play once a week when he can add to his value playing every day in the minors?
Anthony Franco
- This one seems like it's conditional on a Garver IL stint but at some point, Ford just has nothing left to show them in Triple-A
- Cal's not going away anytime soon. They're just going to have to do the Drake Baldwin/Dalton Rushing thing of using him infrequently as a backup with the potential for occasional DH starts and letting him get his feet wet against big league pitching
Gimenez
- Whatever happened to Andres Gimenez? Did he peak at age 23? It's one thing being a .250 hitter, but he's been below the Mendoza line for most of the season.
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MLBTR Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good morning! I’ll get going at 1pm, but feel free to send in questions sooner than that if you like.
- Greetings!
- Let’s get underway
Oz
- I don’t see any chance that the Braves can overtake 5 clubs currently ahead of them in the standings to qualify for the postseason, especially in view of the injury to Chris Sale. If they decide to be sellers at the trade deadline, who are their most marketable assets?
Steve Adams
- Marcell Ozuna, Aaron Bummer, Pierce Johnson. Raisel Iglesias if he gets right between now and July 31. President Alex Anthopoulos sure doesn’t sound like someone who’s keen on a mass sell-off, so even trading Johnson and Bummer with their affordable options might be deemed a bridge too far, but reliever performance is volatile and teams overpay for bullpen help every deadline.
Nolan Arenado
- Will Yanks, Astros, LAD, or Mets be interested in pursuing me this trade deadline? My defense is still superb, and while I had a down May, my April and June have OPS+’s of over 110
Steve Adams
- Astros won’t go over the CBT. Yankees, Mets and Dodgers would pay a 110% tax on Arenado’s continued offensive decline. He’s just not worth his current contract — especially not for a top luxury offender — and he has the full no-trade to boot.
- He’s not even an upgrade in L.A. over Muncy (raking since late April) or Paredes (great all year). Suppose you could play Paredes at 2B, but again, owner Jim Crane doesn’t want to cross the CBT line
Artie moreno
- Will we see Kyren Paris again this year. What does he need to do
Steve Adams
-
- Paris had a crazy start to the season but had terrible contact rates even when he was hot. It never felt sustainable. His contact rate since being sent to AAA is better than it was in the majors with the Angels but also worse than it was in AAA last year. I just don’t think he has the hit tool to be a big league regular, even though the power/speed combo is obviously tantalizing
Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat, Today At 2pm CT
Steve Adams
- Happy Monday! We'll get going in about 90 minutes, but feel free to send in questions ahead of time.
- Hello! Let's get underway
Rafael Devers
- (Sorry for the old news but it’s still hot for a lot of us.). Is my contract “under water”? Some reports say yes, the market (I.e., the Giants) apparently say no. Great hitter but not much more. Is there surplus value in the contract or not?
Steve Adams
- I wouldn't say it's underwater. Devers is an elite hitter, top-10 in the sport, who won't turn 29 until October. We just saw Guerrero get a $500MM contract and Soto $765MM. Devers is owed $238.5MM beyond this season, starting with his age-29 campaign. That's older than Soto and Vlad were when they signed their contracts, of course, but if you asked me whether Devers would clear $238.5MM as a free agent this winter, I'd say he would, yes. Maybe not by leaps and bounds, as many teams would view him as a DH, but yeah, I think he'd get more than that in the open market still.
Knock-Knock
- Are there ever thoughts about changing All Star Voting? I think the starters should be based on stat leaders at each position and then reserves should be who the fans vote for. Too many homers vote for their favorites when clearly, they aren’t the best. This year is better than past years (so far) but not totally true to who is playing the best at each spot.
Steve Adams
- I doubt there will be, but yeah, I said last week in a chat that I don't really care about the All-Star Game whatsoever, in part because I find the voting process so stupid in the internet/social media era. It's always been more popularity contest than anything else, but it's just so exacerbated now.It'd be more appropriately labeled the "Fans' Choice" game or "Fan Selection" game, but in general, I don't find much excitement in it. I'll watch it if I have nothing else going on that night, but I find the All-Star Game less exciting than just tuning into a random Pirates/Reds game to watch Skenes vs. Greene or something.But it's also probably not aimed at the hardcore fan or a baseball sicko like me who consumes as much baseball content as I do. So maybe I'm just jaded and grumpy, haha.
What about Ann?
- Tyler Fitzgerald a fit for Braves 2b?
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MLBTR Chat Transcript
Mark P
- After a two-week hiatus due to some shift rescheduling, the Weekend Chat is back!
Thomas
- Twins need to sell some pieces at the deadline. What would a trade package for Duran look like?
Mark P
- It would be pretty substantial, yet I’m not sure I see Minnesota making that big of a move if they do sell. Trading Duran would say something about the team’s plans for 2026 and beyond, and I think the Twins expect (hope?) to reload for next year if this season ends up going off the rails by the deadline
YamaPhoto
- You predict the Braves to be sellers at the deadline?
Mark P
- Anthopoulos pretty firmly closed the door on the idea of trading Chris Sale or anyone at the deadline, unless the team absolutely cratered. These statements were made before Sale’s IL placement, however, which dealt another big blow to Atlanta’s chances.I don’t see the Braves selling (or fully deciding to sell) until close to the deadline, if at all.
Die Hard Rox Fan
- What would a Jake Bird return look like. 2 top 100s?
Mark P
- Bird’s having a great season, but that is a very, VERY optimistic hope for a reliever who hasn’t shown a whole lot prior to 2025
Andrew Abbott
- Am I firmly in the Cy Young conversation?
Mark P
- Too many NL pitchers having better years, and the advanced metrics hint at some regression coming for Abbott. That doesn’t detract from the fact that he’s pitched really well this year, and greatly helped Cincinnati’s rotation
….
Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a live chat today at 2pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
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MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.