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Kenta Maeda To Undergo Elbow Surgery

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Kenta Maeda will undergo elbow surgery next week, Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). It won’t be known exactly what procedure Maeda will require until he goes under the knife, but it’s possible he’ll need a full Tommy John surgery.

Obviously, Maeda’s timetable will depend on the kind of procedure he ultimately undergoes.  If Maeda does require a complete reconstruction, that would probably rule him out for the entirety of the 2022 season, since Tommy John surgeries typically require rehab timelines of fourteen-plus months. Even a surgery of lesser severity could threaten his readiness for the start of next season.

For instance, Astros left-hander Kent Emanuel had an undetermined amount of ligament damage in his elbow at the time he underwent surgery in June. As with Maeda, it wasn’t clear at the time whether Emanuel would need a full reconstruction. During the operation, it was determined that he didn’t need to undergo TJS, but the procedure he did undergo still came with a nine-month recovery timeline. That’s just one example, and it’s not a given that Maeda is facing the same options Emanuel was. But it’s illustrative that even avoiding Tommy John surgery in these situations could still require a significant recovery period.

The Twins are playing out the string for the rest of 2021, so the effects of losing Maeda for the remainder of this season are relatively minimal. His absence potentially extending into 2022 would be devastating for a Minnesota team hoping to return to contention next season. With José Berríos traded to the Blue Jays before this summer’s deadline, Maeda is by far the most accomplished member of Minnesota’s starting staff.

Michael Pineda is slated to hit free agency this offseason, leaving Bailey Ober, Charlie Barnes, Griffin Jax, Lewis Thorpe and Randy Dobnak as the other starters controllable into 2022. That’s an unproven group insufficient for a hopeful contender. Prospects like Jordan Balazovic or Joe Ryan could pitch their way into the mix at some point soon, but starting pitching already looked to be the biggest area of need for Minnesota this winter. Even if Maeda doesn’t require Tommy John surgery, the front office will have to proceed through the offseason without the comfort of seeing their top in-house pitcher having logged any game action after an elbow procedure of some note.

It’s a disappointing end to the toughest season of Maeda’s six-year big league career. The right-hander consistently posted above-average numbers between 2016-19 with the Dodgers. Minnesota acquired him over the 2019-20 offseason and he had a career-best campaign in last year’s shortened season. Maeda worked to a 2.70 ERA over 66 2/3 innings, earning a runner-up finish in AL Cy Young award balloting.

Maeda couldn’t replicate that success this season, as that ERA ballooned to a career-worst 4.66 over 106 1/3 frames. The 33-year-old has seen significant declines in strikeout and ground-ball rates relative to last season, which looks like a bit of an outlier. But Maeda’s strikeout and walk numbers are still solid, and his 3.97 SIERA suggests he’s at least still a quality arm as he was for his couple seasons in Los Angeles.

If Maeda is forced to miss significant time in 2022, that’d come with serious financial consequences. His original eight-year deal with the Dodgers was heavily incentive-laden because of the L.A. front office’s concern about his medical outlook. Maeda is guaranteed just $3.125MM annually, with millions of dollars in bonuses available via games started and innings thresholds.

Minor MLB Transactions: 8/27/21

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Minnesota Twins signed right-hander Vinny Nittoli to a minors deal and assigned him to Triple-A St. Paul, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com (via Twitter). Nittoli, 30, made his Major League debut earlier this season with the Mariners. He threw one inning, allowing a pair of runs on a pair of walks and a home run. He had a 5.61 ERA in Triple-A over 33 2/3 innings.
  • Bo Takahashi has been released from his contract to sign with the Kia Tigers in Korea, per his former club the Louisville Bats. The Bats, of course, are the Triple-A affiliate of the Reds. Takahashi had a 4.45 ERA in 89 innings while serving as a regular starter in Louisville.

Twins Activate Byron Buxton From Injured List, Select Ian Gibaut

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5:12 pm: Minnesota also announced they’ve reinstated Byron Buxton from the injured list. He’s getting the start in center field for this evening’s game against the Brewers. It’s Buxton’s first action in over two months, as the star outfielder has been out since June 22 due to a fracture in his left hand. Catcher Mitch Garver is going on the 10-day IL with lower back tightness in a corresponding move.

It has been a frustrating season for Buxton, who also missed over a month earlier in the year with a right hip strain. When healthy, he’s been nothing short of brilliant. Across 110 plate appearances, the 27-year-old has a .369/.409/.767 slash with ten home runs.

3:27 pm: The Twins announced they’ve selected reliever Ian Gibaut to the big league roster and reinstated Jorge Alcalá from the 10-day injured list. In corresponding moves, Edgar García and Kyle Barraclough were optioned to Triple-A St. Paul. To open space for Gibaut on the 40-man roster, Minnesota transferred righty Luke Farrell from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list.

Gibaut was drafted by the Rays in 2015 and developed into a solid bullpen prospect after posting dominant numbers throughout his early minor league career. He reached the big leagues with Tampa Bay in July 2019 but was traded to the Rangers after a lone appearance. The right-hander spent parts of the next two seasons in Texas, working to a 5.84 ERA over 24 2/3 innings. Gibaut struck hitters out at a roughly league average rate (24.6%) but he issued far too many walks (14.9%) in that brief showing.

Minnesota claimed Gibaut off waivers over the offseason. They passed the 27-year-old through waivers in February and he’s spent the entire season with St. Paul. Gibaut has just a 7.20 ERA over 40 innings of relief with the Saints, but he’s posted passable strikeout (24.2%), walk (10.5%) and ground-ball (49.6%) numbers at the minors’ highest level. Gibaut’s results have been skewed by opponents’ .402 batting average on balls in play, and the Twins will give him a big league opportunity late in the season.

Farrell’s IL transfer is a procedural move. The righty has been on the IL for more than sixty days already, so his eligibility to return is unaffected. The 30-year-old began a rehab assignment with St. Paul over the weekend.

AL Central Notes: Grandal, Keller, Twins

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The White Sox announced Friday that they’ve reinstated catcher Yasmani Grandal from the 10-day injured list and optioned fellow backstop Zack Collins to Triple-A Charlotte. Grandal missed nearly two months following surgery to repair a tendon tear in his left knee, during which time Chicago leaned on Collins and Seby Zavala to shoulder the workload behind the dish. It’s been an odd season for Grandal, who has walked at an astonishing 24.4 percent pace through 246 trips to the plate and matched his career-high in isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average). But Grandal is also batting just .188, thanks in large part to a .189 average on balls in play. The end result is a nonconventional .188/.388/.436 batting line that still translates to a 134 wRC+ because of that enormous on-base percentage and Grandal’s considerable power. Notably, Grandal’s 26 percent strikeout rate isn’t a huge increase over his 24 percent career mark, and he’s sporting career-highs in hard-hit rate and exit velocity (by a wide margin). There’s good reason to think the batting average and overall batting line can tick upward — provided he’s back to full strength.

More from the AL Central…

  • Royals righty Brad Keller exited last night’s start early and is being evaluated for what the club describes as “posterior right shoulder discomfort,” writes Anne Rogers of MLB.com. The right-hander said after the game that his shoulder felt “tight” and “sore.” The 26-year-old Keller has had a rough year overall but looked to be on the right track after a disastrous three-month run to begin the year. Keller pitched to a 6.67 ERA through the end of June, but in his past nine starts he’s worked to a 3.42 ERA (4.37 SIERA) with greatly improved strikeout and walk rates. A former Rule 5 pick out of the D-backs organization, Keller has emerged as a mainstay in the Kansas City rotation, pitching to a 3.50 ERA in 360 1/3 innings from 2018-20. This year’s struggles have weighed down his numbers, but he still possesses a solid 4.01 ERA in 494 innings since the Royals gave him his first big league opportunity. He’s never been on the injured list outside of a two-week absence last summer due to a positive Covid-19 test.
  • Twins fans could get a look at some of the organization’s top prospects next month. Rosters can’t expand to the extent that they once did — only to 28 players — but manager Rocco Baldelli said this week in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM that the club will likely take a look at some promising youngsters when rosters expand (Twitter link, with audio). “I do think we could get a look at a few of these guys,” Baldelli said, though he declined to provide specific names. “I think there’s value in experience. … Calling guys up in September, giving them a little bit of that, I think helps.” Baldelli specifically pointed to the pitching staff, noting that there will be “some innings available” to the club’s upper-level pitchers. Speculatively speaking, that would seem to bode well for prospects such as Jordan Balazovic and Joe Ryan — the former a consensus top-100 arm and the latter a key arm acquired in the Nelson Cruz trade. Minnesota has given a few rookies some opportunities in the starting rotation this year — Griffin Jax and Charlie Barnes among them — but they’ve yet to promote any of their top-ranked prospects on the pitching side of things (in part due to injuries).

Twins Place Kenta Maeda On 10-Day Injured List

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Aug. 26: Maeda saw an orthopedic surgeon in Dallas, but there is not a definite plan for the treatment moving forward, per Phil Miller of the Star Tribune (via Twitter). There are multiple surgical options on the table, as well as the possibility for a rehab approach.

Aug. 24: Maeda is receiving multiple opinions on the injury, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. He adds that there’s “some concern” regarding possible damage to the right-hander’s ulnar collateral ligament as well.

Aug. 23: As expected, the Twins placed Maeda on the 10-day injured list due to right forearm tightness.  The placement is retroactive to August 22.  Miguel Sano was reinstated from the paternity list and will take Maeda’s spot on the active roster.

Aug. 21: Twins right-hander Kenta Maeda left today’s start due to right forearm tightness.  Maeda allowed one run in his first four innings against the Yankees but then ran into trouble in the fifth, retiring only one batter and then allowing the next four New York hitters to reach base.  Maeda had thrown nine consecutive balls before finally leaving the game.

Minnesota manager Rocco Baldelli told Phil Miller of The Minneapolis Star Tribune (Twitter links) and other reporters that Maeda will undergo an MRI to determine the extent of the injury.  It seems like a trip to the injured list will be in order, as Baldelli said “I don’t see very many scenarios right now where it’s not going to take some time to get Kenta back where he needs to be.”

Given the date, it certainly seems like Maeda’s season could be in jeopardy, to say nothing of a longer-term absence should his forearm injury prove to be serious.  Maeda has made four visits to the IL during his six Major League seasons, though none of those stints were particularly long, and none involved an arm injury.  Though Maeda’s contract (initially signed prior to the 2016 season) was rather notably incentive-heavy due to the Dodgers’ concerns about his physical, the righty has been mostly durable as he has pitched into his age-33 season.

Over 106 1/3 innings in 2021, Maeda has a 4.66 ERA, easily his highest as a Major Leaguer.  That ERA is partially due to bad luck, as Maeda’s Statcast numbers are solid and he has above-average strikeout and walk rates.  “Above average,” however, still represents a marked step backwards from Maeda’s elite 2020 performance, as the Twins righty finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting.

While the Twins are already looking ahead to 2022, losing Maeda for at least a while will only further deplete the team’s pitching depth.  Minnesota has been deploying three rookies (Bailey Ober, Griffin Jax, and Charlie Barnes) in the rotation due to injuries and Jose Berrios leaving town at the trade deadline, with the newly-acquired John Gant also getting starts.

Twins Release Keon Broxton

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The Twins have released veteran outfielder Keon Broxton, who’d been with their Triple-A affiliate in St. Paul, as first indicated on the Triple-A East transactions page at MiLB.com.

Broxton, 31, signed with Minnesota over the winter but never got a call to the big leagues this year even as the club has endured multiple injuries in the outfield. Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff and Jake Cave have all spent significant time on the injured list — Kirilloff’s season is over; Buxton has played in just 27 games — and Max Kepler has also missed some time.

Broxton would’ve seemed a natural fit to pick up some of those at-bats had he been productive, but that simply hasn’t been the case. The former Brewers center fielder has appeared in 73 games in St. Paul but posted just a .186/.288/.335 batting line with nine home runs. Broxton is 10-for-11 in stolen base attempts and has walked at a strong 11.7 percent clip, but his longstanding strikeout issues have climbed to new heights in 2021. He punched out in 44 percent of his plate appearances with the Saints prior to being cut loose.

Few players can match Broxton’s combination of power and speed, but sky-high strikeout tendencies have always come along with that tantalizing mix of tools. Even at his best with the 2016-17 Brewers, when Broxton hit .227/.318/.424 with 29 home runs and 44 steals in 707 trips to the plate, he fanned at a 37.6 percent pace.

It’s common, however, for contending clubs to pick up fleet-footed veterans like this in advance of September roster expansion. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Broxton land elsewhere on a minor league deal and eventually surface with a contender who can afford to carry a player who is primarily a pinch-runner or late-inning defensive specialist on its roster. Broxton is capable of playing all three outfield spots and carries a career mark of 19 Defensive Runs Saved in 2128 innings in center field. Overall, he’s a .209/.297/.388 hitter with 39 homers and 60 steals in 1026 big league plate appearances.

Twins Select Andrew Albers, Kyle Barraclough

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The Twins have selected the contracts of pitchers Andrew Albers and Kyle Barraclough, according to Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (Twitter link). Left-hander Lewis Thorpe is landing on the 10-day injured list with a left shoulder impingement, while righty Edgar García is being optioned to Triple-A St. Paul. Minnesota removed right-hander Beau Burrows from the 40-man roster. Burrows has already cleared outright waivers and will remain in the organization on assignment to St. Paul.

Albers is back in Minnesota for his third separate stint with the club. He broke into the majors with the Twins in 2013 but was released the following offseason so he could pursue an opportunity in the Korea Baseball Organization. Albers returned stateside in 2015 with the Blue Jays, then found his way back to the Twins in 2016 in free agency. He saw some big league time with the Mariners in 2017, then signed with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball for the 2018 campaign.

The well-traveled Albers signed an extension with the Buffaloes to keep him in NPB through 2020. He returned to affiliated ball this past offseason, singing a minors pact with the Twins in February. Assigned to St. Paul, Albers has been a mainstay in the Saints’ rotation. Over 91 innings in that hitter-friendly environment, he’s worked to 3.86 ERA, offsetting a below-average 19.8% strikeout rate with an incredible 2.3% walk percentage. That strong showing has earned the 35-year-old another big league opportunity, where he figures to be a multi-inning relief option for manager Rocco Baldelli.

Barraclough hasn’t been away from the big leagues quite as long as Albers has, but he’s back at the highest level for the first time in two years. The hard-throwing righty looked like a key bullpen piece for the Marlins early in his career, working to a 2.78 ERA across 97 innings between 2015-16. But Barraclough’s always-shaky control became less palatable as his strikeout totals fell over the coming seasons, and he hasn’t pitched in the majors since a tough 2019 campaign split between Miami and the Nationals.

Signed to a minor league deal by the Yankees over the winter, Barraclough was granted his release in mid-June and hooked on with the Twins two days later. Between the two teams’ Triple-A affiliates, the 31-year-old has posted an even 3.00 ERA with a massive 38.7% strikeout rate. Barraclough’s walk rate has still been troublingly high at 14.8%, but his impressive swing-and-miss stuff will earn him a look in a Minnesota bullpen that had to cover almost ten innings yesterday because Thorpe departed with shoulder soreness early in his start.

Burrows was a first-round pick of the Tigers in 2015 and was seen as one of the more promising pitching prospects in the Detroit system over the next few years. He dominated the lowest levels but hasn’t yet found much success above Double-A. The 24-year-old owns a 5.15 ERA over 94 1/3 Triple-A innings and has been tagged for 22 runs over a brief 17 2/3 frame look at the major league level.

Clearly, Burrows’ time in the big leagues hasn’t gone as he’d envisioned to this point. That said, he’s still young enough it’s plausible he can eventually deliver upon some of the promise that made him so well-regarded not long ago. The Twins are surely happy to get an opportunity to work with Burrows, whom they added on a waiver claim from Detroit in late June, without having to dedicate a 40-man roster spot to him.

In other news for Minnesota, Baldelli informed reporters (including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com) that star center fielder Byron Buxton is set to embark upon a rehab assignment with St. Paul tomorrow. It’ll be his first game action in nearly two months, as Buxton suffered a left hand fracture after being hit by a pitch on June 22. Position players can spend up to twenty days on rehab assignments, so Buxton looks likely to be back in the big leagues by the first week of September so long as he doesn’t suffer any setbacks.

Buxton’s return comes as the Twins have started to play more to their expected level coming into the year. It’s too late for Minnesota to make a playoff push, but an improved second half could reinforce the front office’s belief the club is capable of returning to contention in 2022. Buxton’s return for the season’s final month-plus will be a welcome opportunity to give him some needed reps. It’s certainly been a frustrating campaign for Buxton, who has been brilliant (.369/.409/.767) when healthy but has required a pair of significant IL stints. The 27-year-old missed around six weeks between May and June with a right hip strain, then made it back for just three games before suffering the hand fracture.

Twins Designate Nick Vincent For Assignment

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The Twins announced Wednesday morning that they’ve designated veteran right-hander Nick Vincent for assignment. The move opens a spot on the active roster for left-hander Lewis Thorpe, who has been recalled from Triple-A St. Paul to start today’s game.

Vincent, 35, appeared in just two games for Minnesota but pitched quite well, holding opponents to a run on four hits and a walk with four strikeouts in that limited action. Prior to his selection to Minnesota’s big league roster, he split the 2021 season with the Triple-A affiliates of the Twins and Rangers, pitching to a combined 4.19 ERA with very strong strikeout and walk rates of 29.3 percent and 7.6 percent, respectively.

Minnesota was the sixth big league organization for which the increasingly well-traveled Vincent has pitched. The soft-tossing righty continues to bounce around the league despite enjoying fairly consistent success. He’s never posted a single-season ERA higher than last year’s 4.43 mark, and he’s posted strong strikeout-to-walk numbers throughout his career. Vincent averaged just 88.8 mph on his fastball in his brief time with the Twins, although that’s not exactly a new or notable decline in his velocity. He’s never averaged even 91 mph on his heater in a given season and hasn’t cracked a 90 mph average since 2017 — but he’s nevertheless had success along the way.

A fly-ball pitcher who averages around 89 mph on his heater is something of an oddball in today’s velocity-driven game, however, so Vincent will now head to either outright waivers or release waivers in the coming days, giving the other 29 clubs around the league a chance to pick him up. In 403 1/3 career innings, he carries a 3.37 ERA with a 24.2 percent strikeout rate and a 6.1 percent walk rate.

Thorpe, 25, has seen action in parts of three seasons with the Twins. The Australian southpaw was once a highly touted prospect within the system but has had his career slowed by injuries, most notably Tommy John surgery. He’s tossed 14 innings of 3.86 ERA ball in Minnesota this season but did so with career-low velocity and a perilously low 8.6 percent strikeout rate. Thorpe missed a good chunk of the minor league season on the injured list due to a shoulder strain and only recently returned to the team’s Triple-A club. He’s tossed a 8 1/3 innings since that return, allowing a pair of runs on six hits and a walk with six strikeouts while stretching back out to 65 pitches in his most recent outing.

Twins Option Trevor Larnach

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The Twins announced this evening they’ve optioned corner outfielder Trevor Larnach to Triple-A St. Paul. Utilityman Nick Gordon has been recalled to take his place on the active roster.

Minnesota selected Larnach to the big leagues in early May. A 2018 first-round pick, Larnach rose rather quickly through the minors with huge performances up through Double-A. Along the way, he cemented himself as one of the Twins’ most promising prospects — and indeed, as one of the top farmhands in the sport. Entering the year, Baseball America placed Larnach inside the game’s top 40 minor league talents.

The hope was that Larnach and/or fellow top prospect Alex Kirilloff would hit the ground running to cement themselves as potential everyday options alongside Byron Buxton and Max Kepler in the Minnesota outfield. Neither player has yet tapped into their considerable offensive upside, though. Kirilloff hit .251/.299/.423 over 231 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending wrist injury. Larnach has stayed healthy, but he’s hit at a below-average level (.223/.322/.350) for the first time in his professional career. He started the season well, but Larnach’s been mired in a dreadful slump of late, with just two multi-hit games since July 5.

To his credit, Larnach has continued to show plenty of patience at the plate this season, as he did throughout his minor league tenure. The 24-year-old has walked in a quality 10.3% of his plate appearances, swinging at a lower-than-average 28% of pitches outside the strike zone while attacking pitches in the zone at a near average rate. While Larnach hasn’t chased much, he’s simply made too little contact when he has swung. His 62.9% contact rate is the third-lowest mark (above only Mike Zunino’s and Javier Báez’s) among the 228 hitters with 250+ plate appearances this season. That’s led to a massive 34.6% strikeout rate that’s fourth-highest (lower only than Zunino’s, Bobby Dalbec’s and Báez’s) in that group.

While Zunino and Báez have offset their huge strikeout totals with huge power and plus defense, Larnach hasn’t offered that sort of complementary production. He’s always been seen as a bat-first prospect, so the lack of defensive value isn’t a surprise. But Larnach has hit just seven home runs in 301 plate appearances and has a below-average .127 isolated power (slugging minus batting average).

He’s hit the ball solidly, but it hasn’t been the elite contact quality necessary to succeed with a strikeout rate at its current level. According to Statcast, Larnach has made hard contact (defined as an exit velocity of 95 MPH or higher) on 41.1% of his batted balls. That’s above the 35.5% league average, but it’s not at the level of Zunino (48.9%) or Báez (45.6%). Similarly, Larnach’s average exit velocity and barrel rate are right around the 60th percentiles. Zunino has an 89th percentile average exit velocity and a 100th percentile barrel rate, while Báez sits in the 72nd and 86th percentiles in those respective metrics.

More simply put, hitters with that kind of swing-and-miss need to be among the best in the league at driving the ball when they do make contact. Larnach has been above-average but not elite in that regard.

Obviously, Larnach’s first crack at the majors hasn’t gone as he or the organization would’ve hoped. That said, it’s much too early to write off the possibility of him figuring things out. He’s a career .306/.384/.473 hitter in the minors, where his strikeout rate is a far more manageable 21.8%. And he was making the jump to the majors this year with essentially no Triple-A experience. Last year’s canceled minor league season — coupled with the delayed start to the 2021 minors campaign — has kept Larnach to all of three career games at that level.

He’ll head to St. Paul for what’ll presumably be a more extended Triple-A run. If he performs at anything close to his level up through Double-A, he figures to get another look in the big leagues at some point soon. The Twins are playing out the stretch on a disappointing season, and they’re certainly holding out hope Larnach can contribute to a 2022 team they’re expecting to compete in the AL Central.

Twins Place Michael Pineda On 10-Day Injured List

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The Twins placed right-hander Michael Pineda on the 10-day injured list due to a mild left oblique strain.  Right-hander Ralph Garza Jr. was called up from Triple-A to take Pineda’s spot on the active roster.

The injury developed during Pineda’s start against the Rays last night, as Pineda allowed four runs over 2 2/3 innings before leaving the game after a visit on the mound from the team trainer.  Speaking with reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press) today, Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said the injury isn’t expected to be serious enough to prevent Pineda from returning to the mound before the season is through.

That’s good news in both the short term and the longer term for Pineda, who can use his remaining starts to further bolster his free agent case for the offseason.  The subject of several rumors leading up to the July 30 trade deadline, Pineda ended up staying in Minnesota, which counted as a surprise considering his rental player status and the fact that as of July 26, the Twins had yet to engage the righty’s representatives in negotiations about a contract extension.

It’s been a mixed bag for Pineda in 2021, making him an interesting entry for teams to evaluate on the open market this winter.  Pineda has a solid 4.13/4.24 ERA over 85 innings, and he has continued his career-long ability to limit free passes by delivering another excellent (4.8%) walk rate.  However, Pineda has also allowed a lot of hard contact and his 20.6% strikeout rate is well below the league average.

Durability is also still a question mark, as Pineda has now made three trips to the injured list this season.  (He had a 10-day absence in May after undergoing a procedure to have an abscess removed from his thigh, and he also missed three weeks due to elbow inflammation.)  Pineda has missed two full seasons of his pro career due to a shoulder surgery and a Tommy John surgery, and he also missed 60 games spanning the 2019-20 seasons due to a PED suspension.  Heading into his age 33 season, Pineda has tossed 354 innings since the start of the 2017 campaign.

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