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Jake Arrieta

Previewing 2019-20’s Opt-Out Clause Decisions

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Some few contracts include provisions giving the player control over one or more seasons by affording the chance to opt out of the remainder of the deal. Take the bird in hand or see how many you can net from the free-agent bush? Market changes have impacted the math for some players, but the open market still has riches to offer. We don’t know how things will look for any given player at season’s end, but here’s how it’s shaping up at the outset of the 2019 campaign:

Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers: Three years, $43MM: The 2016-17 version of Andrus — and the one we saw through the season’s first two weeks in 2018 — looked every bit like a player who would exercise the first of two opt-out clauses in his contract (which came at the end of the 2018 season). From Opening Day 2016 through April 11 last year, Andrus posted a terrific .301/.352/.459 batting line with 30 homers, 78 doubles, 11 triples and 49 steals through 1318 plate appearances. Paired with his glovework at shortstop, he looked very capable of topping the remaining four years and $58MM on his contract. Unfortunately, he suffered an elbow fracture, missed two months, and returned to hit only .245/.289/.347 in his final 367 plate appearances. An offseason of rest looks to have done him some good, as he’s hitting .380/.392/.500 through 51 PAs. Unlike several players on this list, there’s an actual chance that Andrus could test the open market, though free agency hasn’t been kind to players on the wrong side of 30 in recent years.

Jake Arrieta, RHP, Phillies: One year, $20MM (unless Phillies exercise two-year, $40MM option for 2021-22): Arrieta’s first season with the Phils was solid, if unremarkable. He tallied 172 2/3 innings and gave the team a 3.96 ERA with fielding-independent metrics that didn’t stray too far from that ERA (4.26 FIP, 4.08 xFIP, 4.29 SIERA). The former Cy Young winner’s velocity is down a couple miles per hour from its peak levels, and while Arrieta showed good control and ground-ball tendencies in 2018, he no longer appears to be a strikeout pitcher. Given that he’ll pitch next season at age 34, it doesn’t seem all that likely that the Phillies will sign up to tack on another pair of $20MM seasons. With a strong 2019 effort, it’s possible that Arrieta positions himself to land a two-year deal with a larger guarantee but lower annual rate (e.g. two years, $30MM), so it’s not out of the question that he’d opt out at season’s end, even if seems unlikely at present.

Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs: Four years, $81MM: Darvish’s first season in Chicago was an unmitigated disaster, as a series of arm injuries limited him to just 40 innings of work. His velocity isn’t where it was in previous seasons, and in this season’s small sample of three starts, he’s walked more batters than he’s punched out. It’s hard to envision any scenario in which Darvish opts out of his contract; even if he stormed back to ace status and won an NL Cy Young Award, I’m not sure he’d top $81MM as a 33-year-old free agent with a qualifying offer hanging over his head. The Cubs appear stuck with the contract and will need to simply hope for a rebound.

Jason Heyward, OF, Cubs: Four years, $86MM (assuming he makes 550 PAs): Heyward has had a scalding hot start to the season, mashing at a .351/.444/.676 pace. Through 45 plate appearances, he’s already halfway to his home run total from a 2018 season in which he came to he plate 489 times. Even if Heyward’s bat proves to be rejuvenated to its 2015 levels, however, it’s virtually unfathomable that he’d walk away from the remaining $86MM on this contract. His poor results in his first three seasons with the Cubs still loom large enough that a monster year at the dish would be met with a heavy dose of skepticism, and he’ll turn 30 in August.

Kenley Jansen, RHP, Dodgers: Two years, $38MM: After seven seasons as a near-unstoppable force in the Dodgers’ bullpen, Jansen looked mortal in 2018 when he logged a 3.01 ERA (his first time ever topping 3.00) and 10.3 K/9 (his first time south of 13.0). A strong enough rebound campaign could embolden Jansen to seek out a three-year deal at a lower annual salary than the $19MM remaining on his contract; the Rockies gave Wade Davis a total of $52MM for the same three-year age span that Jansen will be entering (32-34). He’s already rejected one qualifying offer in his career, so he wouldn’t be eligible to receive a second one (even though he landed with the same team that winter).

J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Red Sox: Three years, $62.5MM: The general expectation in the 2017-18 offseason was that Martinez’s 2017 season (.303/.376/.690, 45 home runs) would be a peak year. Instead, he turned in an arguably even more productive 2018 season with the Red Sox, hitting a ridiculous .330/.402/.629 with 43 home runs in 649 PAs — the second-highest total of his career. Martinez is off to another strong start in 2019, and despite a frosty climate for free agents, one can only wonder if he’d be tempted to once again test free agency if he can post a third consecutive season of 40-plus homers with an OPS north of 1.000. One wrinkle to consider is that barring an unexpected midseason trade, Martinez would have a qualifying offer attached to him this time around; that wasn’t true of his last trip through free agency, as he’d been traded from Detroit to Arizona midseason.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals: Four years, $100MM: Strasburg is still a strikeout machine who posts big totals in swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates, but his 93.1 mph average fastball in 2019 is well south of last year’s 94.5 mph (to say nothing of his career 95.3). The former No. 1 pick was a big part of the Nats’ rotation in 2018 and should be again this year, but he was more good than great last year (130 innings, 3.74 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 43.6 GB%). Moreover, Darvish and a much younger Patrick Corbin are the only two pitchers who have topped $100MM in guarantees over the past two offseasons. Strasburg would be hit with a qualifying offer if he opted out, and he’d be betting against recent trends as a 31-year-old pitcher looking to cash in on a nine-figure contract. He can ask Dallas Keuchel how well that strategy works.

NL Health Notes: Wieck, Seager, Arrieta, Eickhoff

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Padres lefty Brad Wieck was diagnosed with testicular cancer earlier this year, as AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports. The 27-year-old hurler went under the knife not long thereafter. Fortunately, the medical prognosis appears to be good, though it’s obviously something that’ll be watched closely by doctors. Though Wieck will be building back to full strength during camp, it seems his outlook on the field also remains promising. He could return to the hill in the next few weeks, it seems, and could again present the team with a MLB option after making his debut during a promising 2018 campaign.

As we send our best wishes to Wieck for a cancer-free future, we’ll cover some other health matters from the National League …

  • President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman says that the Dodgers are quite encouraged by the progress of shortstop Corey Seager in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports on Twitter. It’s “a best-case to this point,” in fact, which certainly paints a hopeful picture. Seager went under the knife at the end of April last year, so he’s about ten weeks shy of being a full year removed from the procedure. The hope remains that Seager will be prepared for Opening Day, manager Dave Roberts indicated yesterday (via Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, on Twitter), though it stands to reason that the club will take a cautious path before fully unleashing the young star.
  • Phillies starter Jake Arrieta underwent a meniscus procedure on his left knee about a month back, manager Gabe Kapler told reporters including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (Twitter link). The surgery, which addressed an injury that occurred during the offseason, does not appear to be a major concern, with Kapler saying the expectation is for Arrieta to be ready for the start of the season. Still, the hope was that the veteran righty, who’ll soon turn 33, would be at full health and focused on finding improvements after his ERA rose for the third-straight season.
  • Meanwhile, the Phillies are holding their collective breath on fellow righty Jerad Eickhoff. As Kapler explains, and Lauber tweets, Eickhoff has again experienced symptoms relating to the carpal tunnel issues that led to surgery last season. While another procedure isn’t on the table at present, it’s another suboptimal situation. The 28-year-old has shown quite a bit of talent, but is looking to bounce back after missing almost all of the 2018 campaign.

Heyman’s Latest: Arrieta, Cain, Davis, Rays, Reds, Morales

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Some items from around baseball in the latest notes collection from FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman…

  • The Nationals were linked to Jake Arrieta during the offseason, and Heyman reports that the team was interested in signing the righty to a contract similar to the three-year, $75MM deal Arrieta eventually got from the Phillies.  No offer was officially made, however, while GM Mike Rizzo had interest in adding Arrieta, ownership declined to make another big investment in a starting pitcher.  With Arrieta pitching well and the Phillies ahead of the Nats in the NL East standings, this non-signing could be an interesting what-if scenario for the future, though Washington’s rotation is already one of the best in baseball.
  • Speaking of winter what-ifs, Heyman adds the Mariners, Braves, and Dodgers to the list of teams that had interest in signing Lorenzo Cain before the center fielder inked a deal with the Brewers.  Seattle had a clear need for center field help prior to the Dee Gordon trade, though the other two wouldn’t seem to be obvious fits on paper for Cain’s services.  The Braves already have Ender Inciarte in center, plus they needed to trade Matt Kemp to make room for Ronald Acuna’s eventual promotion; potentially, Cain could’ve been a fit if Atlanta had managed to trade Nick Markakis (and then convince Cain to shift to right field).  For the Dodgers, signing Cain would have run counter to their plan of getting under the luxury tax threshold, plus L.A. would’ve had to give up two draft picks and $1MM in international bonus pool funds as compensation for signing Cain.  It’s also possible, of course, that both the Braves and Dodgers merely had a due diligence-type of interest in Cain given that his free agent stint stretched into late January.
  • Khris Davis and the Athletics were in talks about a one-year extension to cover Davis’ final season of arbitration eligibility, though Heyman reports that Davis declined an offer from the team.  It isn’t known whether negotiations are ongoing or if the two sides will table the issue.  Davis has a .235/.307/.497 slash line and 13 homers through his first 205 PA, so he is on pace to earn another big raise from his current $10.5MM salary in his last arb year.
  • The Mets aren’t for sale, though “folks around the league believe” that Rays owner and New York native Stuart Sternberg would try to buy the the Mets if they were available.  Needless to say, the Mets would be a highly sought-after property if the Wilpon family did decide to sell — one would imagine the sale price of a team in the gigantic NYC media market would easily surpass the $2 billion mark.  Heyman writes that there is even some speculation Sternberg would try to move the Rays to New York or Montreal if the league allowed it, though obviously the Mets and Yankees would have something to say about the former option in terms of territorial-rights issues.  Sternberg’s relative lack of ties to his own team’s area (“he isn’t often in Tampa“) could also be an obstacle in the Rays’ longstanding desire for a new stadium.
  • The Reds have been playing better under Jim Riggleman, but if the team does still want to make a long-term change in the dugout, Heyman hears that the team isn’t going to be spending big on a managerial salary.  A new skipper will almost certainly make less than Dusty Baker’s $3.5MM annual salary when he was running the team.  This could rule out a star hire like Joe Girardi, who impressed Reds ownership when he interviewed for the job prior to Baker’s hiring.  Interestingly, Heyman believes that Girardi — an Illinois native — could be a candidate if the White Sox decided to make a managerial change, though there isn’t any indication that the Sox are considering moving on from Rick Renteria.  That scenario would have a strong echo of Renteria’s last managerial job, when he stewarded the Cubs through some rebuilding years before being replaced by another star manager in Joe Maddon.
  • The Royals had some interest “awhile back” in a reunion with Blue Jays DH Kendrys Morales, though that trade possibility has evaporated since both the Royals and Morales are badly struggling.  K.C. is looking like a deadline seller, while Morales is hitting so poorly (.163/.248/.279 through 117 PA) that the Jays may have to release him or eat all of the approximately $19.76MM left on his contract through the 2019 campaign.

Jake Arrieta On Declining Cubs’ Offer

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In a chat with Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, Phillies hurler Jake Arrieta verified prior reports that Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein made a last-ditch offer before the team agreed to terms with Yu Darvish.

Arrieta, who ultimately signed with the Philadelphia organization later in the winter, tells Wittenmyer that he does not really believe that Epstein expected to get a deal done when he called with a “take it or leave it” proposal of six years and $120MM. That statement reflects previous reporting on the perceptions of both sides to that conversation.

While he emphasized that he harbors no ill will at all toward Epstein or the Cubs organization, Arrieta says that approach was a non-starter, even though he had yet to receive a formal contract offer to that point:

“[T]hey weren’t willing to negotiate at all, and that wasn’t acceptable for me,” Arrieta tells Wittenmyer. “I bet on myself just like I have my entire career and ended up getting a good deal.”

Arrieta, of course, is referring to the three-year, $75MM guarantee he took down from the Phils. He obviously preferred the higher average annual value but also emphasized in his comments that he expects to play longer than that in Philadelphia. Arrieta’s deal includes a provision that allows the Phillies to add on two years at a salary of $20MM or more (depending upon escalators) per season.

The veteran hurler certainly exuded confidence in his chat with Wittenmyer, which is well worth a full read. Among other things, he discussed his leadership efforts with the Phillies and flatly rejected the idea that there’s any concern with how he’ll age — or how his velocity will hold up — over the course of his new contract. To the contrary, Arrieta suggests his new organization will receive an exceptional player. “There’s not many like me,” he tells Wittenmyer. “… I don’t care what the situation is, I bet on myself to get the job done.”

Heyman’s Latest: Arrieta, Lucroy, Tigers, Puig, Gordon, K-Rod, Acuna

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The Cubs were known to have made “one last call” to Jake Arrieta’s agent Scott Boras before signing Yu Darvish, and FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman provided some new details on that exchange.  Theo Epstein proposed a “theoretical” offer of six years and $120MM to Arrieta if, and only if, things did not work out with Darvish.  Epstein reportedly didn’t seriously think Arrieta’s camp would take the offer, and the executive was “just making the call to show respect” to a player who was such a major factor in Chicago’s recent success.  Even if Darvish had turned the Cubs down, it still doesn’t seem as if Arrieta and the team would’ve been able to come to an agreement, as Arrieta simply wanted a larger average annual value than Chicago was willing to offer (due to their desire to stay under the luxury tax threshold).  The Cubbies also are said to have put $48MM over four years on the table for Alex Cobb earlier in the winter before putting pen to paper with Darvish, and Heyman speculates that the Cubs might have eventually become interested in Alex Cobb had they missed out on both Darvish and Arrieta.

Here are a few items from Heyman, in his latest notes column…

  • The Nationals could potentially be contenders to sign Jonathan Lucroy next offseason.  Matt Wieters is in his last year under contract, and Washington had some interest in Lucroy this winter despite Wieters still being on the hook for $10.5MM this season.  Of course, quite a bit could happen to affect this interest between now and next winter, particularly since Lucroy is looking to rebound with the Athletics after a very inconsistent 2017 season.  If Lucroy does bounce back and the A’s are out of contention this year, I would think it possible that the Nats could even target Lucroy at the trade deadline.
  • In some Tigers agency news, righty Franklin Perez is joining Beverly Hills Sports Council while infielder Dixon Machado is now with Octagon. You can track the latest representation information with MLBTR’s agency database.
  • Speaking of agents, Yasiel Puig has been in talks with “several agencies” about representation since the Wasserman agency cut ties with the Dodgers outfielder in February.  Puig has also been considering having one of his current financial advisors represent him, though the MLBPA has “strongly advised” Puig to work with an established agency.
  • “It was very much a split decision” within the Royals front office to re-sign Alex Gordon to a four-year, $72MM deal in the 2015-16 offseason.  Gordon’s return to Kansas City was seen as something of a surprise at the time, though he had a strong personal desire to return to the team and the Royals were willing to spend extra to retain a key member of their World Series-winning team.  Gordon was entering his age-32 season at the time, however, and some in the organization felt “he had had worn down by that point” and wasn’t a good investment.  These concerns seem to have been well-founded, as Gordon has hit just .213/.300/.343 over 1071 PA through two-plus years of that contract.
  • Reliever Francisco Rodriguez is determined to continue pitching at age 36, even if it means going to an indy ball club.  He was released by the Phillies last month after spending most of the spring with the organization on a minor league deal, and K-Rod posted a 5.40 ERA over 6 2/3 Grapefruit League innings.
  • Shortstop Luisangel Acuna, the younger brother of star Braves prospect Ronald Acuna, will be a sought-after name in the next July 2 international signing period, Heyman writes in a separate piece.  The Rangers are one of multiple teams interested in the younger Acuna, who could receive a bonus as high as $500K.  This estimated price tag will keep the Braves out of the running, as they are limited to spending no more than $300K on any single international prospect for the next July 2 period.  MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez writes that some scouts feel Acuna will eventually have to move to second base, and he “has shown some power and has the potential to be an average-or-better hitter with proper instruction, but he’ll have to grow” beyond his current 5’9″, 160-pound frame.

Phillies Sign Jake Arrieta

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The Phillies have officially inked right-hander Jake Arrieta, as Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia first reported on Twitter. It’ll be a three-year, $75MM contract for the Scott Boras client, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.

Arrieta will earn $30MM in 2018, $25MM in 2019 and $20MM in 2020, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports (links to Twitter).  Arrieta can choose to opt out of the deal after the second season, though interestingly, the contract also allows the Phillies to “void” the opt-out by picking up a two-year option that would extend the contract through the 2021-22 seasons.

Should the Phils override the opt-out, they would pay Arrieta a base salary of $20MM in each of the two additional years. But those option-year salaries aren’t fixed. Games-started escalators (presumably, based upon 2019 tallies) can boost the values by as much as $5MM, with the escalators beginning at 25 starts and maxing out if and when Arrieta takes the ball for a 31st time. He can escalate those salaries further by finishing in the top-five of the N.L. Cy Young voting in either 2018 or 2019; the annual rate on the potential extra years goes up by $5MM with a top-three finish or by $3MM if Arrieta finishes fourth or fifth. The contract also includes a $1MM assignment bonus provision.

Jake Arrieta

Up until Sunday, the 32-year-old Arrieta ranked as the best free agent remaining in what has been a famously slow-moving market since it opened in November. Back then, MLBTR forecast a four-year, $100MM pact for Arrieta, who’s coming off a four-plus-year run with the Cubs in which he was one of baseball’s best pitchers.

During his stretch in Chicago from 2013-17, the former Orioles castoff won a Cy Young (2015) and a World Series (2016), and he pitched to a 2.73 ERA/3.16 FIP with 8.89 K/9, 2.73 BB/9 and a 50.6 percent groundball rate over 803 innings. Arrieta fell off somewhat last year, however, with a 3.53 ERA/4.16 FIP over 168 1/3 frames. While Arrieta again offered strong strikeout and walk numbers (8.71 K/9, 2.94 BB/9), his grounder (45.1 percent) and swinging-strike rates (8.7; down from 10 percent as a Cub) each trended in the wrong direction. He also experienced a drop in velocity, going from upward of 94 mph with his fastball in each of the previous five seasons to 92.6.

With last year’s decline in mind, it’s less surprising that free agency didn’t go as planned for Arrieta. It’s also not surprising that the Phillies were willing to reel him in at a discounted rate. Phillies president Andy MacPhail and general manager Matt Klentak emphasized throughout the offseason that they weren’t interested in signing anyone to an overly long deal, but they did suggest they’d be willing to pay extra for shorter-term pacts. Arrieta is now the fourth noteworthy free agent to whom they’ve guaranteed three or fewer years since December.

Previously, the Phillies landed first baseman Carlos Santana (three years, $60MM) and the relief duo of Tommy Hunter (two years, $18MM) and Pat Neshek (two years, $16.25MM). Despite those signings, the big-market Phillies entered Sunday with plenty of spending room, and they still figure to fall short of last year’s $100MM Opening Day payroll even in the wake of their expensive Arrieta agreement.

All of those additions certainly aren’t guaranteed to lead to immediate contention for the Phillies, who registered their sixth straight non-playoff season and their fifth consecutive sub-.500 year in 2017. But the Arrieta pickup could be particularly helpful to a team whose projected rotation otherwise wouldn’t have featured any proven options beyond Aaron Nola. He and Arrieta should form a quality one-two punch and perhaps help the Phillies return to contention in 2018 as part of a National League that features three clear favorites – Arrieta’s previous team, the Cubs, as well as the Dodgers and Nationals. Washington, which was a speculative landing spot for Arrieta, will now have to deal with him as an opponent in its division, though the Nationals are still the obvious NL East front-runners over the Mets, Phillies, Braves and Marlins.

Despite their recent run of irrelevance, the Phillies clearly regard themselves as a team on the upswing, as their free agent splashes indicate. After losing their second-highest draft pick in 2018 and $500K in international bonus pool to sign Santana, who rejected the Indians’ qualifying offer, they’ll surrender their third-highest selection (No. 79) and another $500K for Arrieta. The Cubs, who qualified Arrieta in November, will collect a compensatory pick after the second round. They seem well equipped to move on without Arrieta, having added this offseason’s top free agent starter, Yu Darvish (six years, $126MM), and Tyler Chatwood to a rotation that will also feature Jose Quintana, Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester.

Boras hoped to outdo Darvish’s pact with Arrieta, given that the latter has the better track record of production, but he has instead seen another of his clients collect a lower-than-expected payday. To Boras’ credit, a pair of his players – first baseman Eric Hosmer ($144MM) and slugger J.D. Martinez ($110MM) – did receive two of this free agent class’s three richest guarantees. On the other hand, before Arrieta reached an agreement, Carlos Gonzalez ($8MM), Mike Moustakas ($6.5MM) and Carlos Gomez ($4MM) each signed for relatively underwhelming amounts. Now, reliever Greg Holland is the last high-end Boras client remaining on a shrinking market as Opening Day draws closer.

Nightengale and Jon Heyman of FanRag first reported that the Phillies and Arrieta were headed toward a deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Reaction To The Phillies/Jake Arrieta Agreement

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One of the offseason’s major free agents finally came off the board today, as Jake Arrieta agreed to a three-year, $75MM contract with the Phillies that will become official once the right-hander passes a physical.  Here is some of the early reaction to the deal…

  • “For the Phillies, this was as close to a no-brainer as $25 million per season gets,” David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News writes.  Murphy argues that the Phillies were simply in such dire need for starting pitching that a quality arm like Arrieta was too good to pass up, even at a significant price for a still-rebuilding team.  Though Arrieta’s performance dipped in 2017, Murphy notes that even Arrieta’s down year still more or less equaled Aaron Nola’s numbers, so “in essence, the Phillies will have added another Nola even if Arrieta’s 2017 is his new normal.”  Even if Arrieta declines further, the three-year length of the deal means that he won’t be much of a long-term burden on the Phils’ spending abilities.
  • The threat of such a decline, however, makes this signing “a strange one” for the Phillies, in the opinion of ESPN.com’s Keith Law (subscription required).  Arrieta’s peripherals and velocity were both down in 2017, and Law wonders if “this is a Tim Lincecum situation where there’s no actual injury but he’s just wearing down after a great peak.”  Even if Arrieta stabilizes his performance or regains some of his old form, Law questions the wisdom of a contract that will likely deliver most of its value before the Phillies are truly ready to contend.
  • “The Padres had more than passing interest in Jake Arrieta”, Dennis Lin of the Athletic tweets, but the $25MM average annual value of Arrieta’s contract was too high for San Diego’s liking.  The club was known to have been at least considering the idea of going after the right-hander, who could’ve joined Eric Hosmer as the second major Scott Boras client to (surprisingly) sign with the Padres this winter.  Lin feels the Padres are likely to stick with their current rotation mix rather than add another starting pitcher, though “there are fans of Alex Cobb in the organization.”
  • The Nationals had been mentioned as a speculative landing spot for Arrieta for much of the offseason, due to both the Nats’ possible need for another starter and Boras’ well-documented relationship with the Lerner family.  As Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com notes, however, “Nats folks insisted from the beginning Boras was trying to make them more interested in Arrieta than they were.”  Even if Washington was more likely to engage in Arrieta’s market if the price dropped, it seemingly never got low enough for the Nationals to make a strong bid.

Phillies, Jake Arrieta “Moving Close” To Agreement

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3:37pm: The Phillies and Arrieta “are moving close to a deal,” Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets.

1:24pm: Free agent right-hander Jake Arrieta’s lengthy stay on the open market is likely to end “in the next couple of days,” Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. There are still “several teams” vying for Arrieta, according to Nightengale, who adds that the Phillies look like the favorites to land the 32-year-old.

Signing Arrieta would be the second major splash of free agency for the Phillies, who picked up first baseman Carlos Santana on a three-year, $60MM guarantee over the winter. Philadelphia was reportedly “having dialogue” with Arrieta back in late February, though team brass has insisted in recent months that the Phillies aren’t keen on doling out a long-term contract at this juncture. As part of a typical market, that would probably hurt the Phillies’ chances of reeling in a top-caliber starter like Arrieta, but free agency has been anything but normal in recent months. Evidence of that lies in the fact that Arrieta is still in limbo four-plus months since he became available, despite an excellent run with the Cubs from 2014-17.

At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a four-year, $100MM pact for Arrieta. It’s possible that will prove to be generous, though, as two of the other best starters in this winter’s class – Yu Darvish, Lance Lynn – signed for significantly less than expected, while both Arrieta and Alex Cobb are still without teams. In Darvish’s case, although he didn’t reach the projected $150MM guarantee, he still received a six-year, $126MM commitment to replace Arrieta in Chicago. Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras, has tried to convince anyone who’ll listen that his client warrants a far richer contract than Darvish’s, but it looks highly unlikely at this point that he’ll get his way.

Regardless of how much money signing Arrieta might cost the Phillies, the onetime Cy Young winner’s history indicates he’d give them a second front-end starter to join budding ace Aaron Nola. The Phillies’ projected rotation is otherwise a mostly unproven group, so it’s debatable whether they’d even jump into wild-card contention in 2018 with Arrieta, though FanGraphs’ Craig Edwards recently argued that they’re not far off in a league with no apparent playoff shoo-ins aside from the powerhouse Dodgers-Cubs-Nationals trio.

While the Phillies are currently upstarts who have posted six straight non-playoff seasons, including five consecutive sub-.500 years, it’s clear they’re gearing up for a return to relevance in the near future. Further, the big-market club has flexed its financial muscle oftentimes in the past and could very easily afford an Arrieta signing now, with Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource currently projecting an Opening Day payroll of roughly $65MM. That would be approximately $35MM than last year’s figure and the franchise’s lowest since it fielded a $58MM team in 2002.

It’s worth noting that Arrieta wouldn’t just cost the Phillies money. Because he rejected the Cubs’ qualifying offer at the start of the offseason, the Phillies (or anyone else) would have to surrender draft compensation and international bonus pool money ($500K in Philly’s case) to sign him. The Phillies already gave up their second-highest pick in 2018 when they signed Santana, though, so they’d only have to part with their third choice (No. 79) for Arrieta.

Free Agent Rumors: 2018-19 Class, Arrieta, Padres, CarGo, O’s

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The 2017-18 free agent drought has left plenty of players uncertain what to expect next year even with a potentially historic (albeit top-heavy) class of players set to hit the open market. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale spoke to nearly a dozen players on the matter, getting thoughts from Charlie Blackmon, Brad Brach, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Manny Machado, Dallas Keuchel, Adam Wainwright, Josh Donaldson, Pat Neshek and Evan Longoria. Some of that group are set to hit the market next winter, including Blackmon and Brach, both of whom expressed that this offseason’s market has them less excited for free agency and a bit concerned. Others such as Machado and Keuchel feel the market is in line for a correction.

“There’s too many really, really, talented players that have plaques in their houses and are generational players,” says Keuchel of next year’s class. “You’re talking about three potential Hall of Famers (Clayton Kershaw, Bryce Harper and Machado).” Donaldson (also a free agent next winter), Scherzer and Verlander, meanwhile, urged their fellow players to believe in their abilities, with Donaldson adding that he hopes no impending free agent is swayed into taking a poor deal before season’s end out of fear for a repeat of this winter’s market.

Some notes on the current crop of free agents…

  • The Padres have had “internal discussions” about Jake Arrieta, writes FanRag’s Jon Heyman, though he notes that it’s not clear if the team has any interest in actually making an offer. Realistically, there are likely many clubs that aren’t obvious suitors for Arrieta and the remaining top-level free agents that have at least internally kicked around the idea of delving back into the open market with prices bottoming out in recent weeks. Arrieta “has the fortitude to wait things out,” per the report, however. Heyman notes that Padres sources have indicated they’re at least keeping tabs on market prices for several players, which, again, probably holds true for a number of clubs.
  • Meanwhile, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune spoke to two agents who represent two of the remaining starters on the market within the past week and was told that the Padres are “looking for pitching.” However, Padres officials emphasized to him that they’re not actively pursuing arms from outside the organization and are focused on the in-house options they have — both at the big league level and looming in one of the game’s best farm systems.
  • Heyman also writes that there’s still a chance the Rockies could bring Carlos Gonzalez back to Denver. The Rox have remained in touch with Gonzalez and Scott Boras, though Gonzalez is talking with “a couple” of clubs as he looks to find an offer to his liking. There hasn’t been much in the way of injuries to starting outfielders among contending clubs thus far in Spring Training, so no new opportunities for Gonzalez have really arisen.
  • Jon Jay was still seeking a fairly notable two-year deal when the Orioles signed Colby Rasmus to a minor league deal, reports MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. The O’s even checked back with Jay’s camp last week, he adds, but didn’t get any indication that Jay was willing to sign the type of contract he took with the Royals: a one-year, $3MM deal with a reported $1.5MM available via incentives. Jay fit the profile the Orioles were reportedly seeking for much of the offseason — a left-handed hitter who would be an upgrade defensively over some of their current corner options.

Scott Boras Reports Progress On Remaining Free Agents

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6:11pm: Boras spoke with Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star about Moustakas at greater length, and Mellinger suggests that Boras and Moustakas may be comfortable waiting until after the June draft to sign. At that point, there’d be no draft compensation attached to Moustakas, and there’d also be the possibility that more teams have unexpected needs at third base (or that unexpected contenders are looking to add).

Boras isn’t directly quoted regarding the possibility of waiting until June, it should be noted, and the agent spoke with some optimism that Moustakas could yet find a landing spot before the season begins.

“The teams are coming, and Moose is going to be playing baseball,” said Boras to Mellinger. “But I don’t control time, and I don’t control competitiveness. The question is when do those teams want to commit to winning, and of course I think he’ll be playing, yes.”

Boras does note that free agency would be a “totally different world” for Moustakas were draft forfeitures not attached to signing him, pointing out that the new CBA stipulates that players can only receive one QO in their career. With that in mind, perhaps Boras and Moustakas would be amenable to a one-year pact that would allow for another crack at the open market next season, when Moustakas will still be a relatively youthful 30 years old.

11:03am: Agent Scott Boras, who represents many of the top remaining free agents, suggested to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi that at least some of his clients could be nearing new contracts. (Twitter link.)

Boras represents four still-unsigned players who had spots on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent list: Jake Arrieta, Mike Moustakas, Greg Holland, and Carlos Gonzalez. Four other players with other representation from that list of fifty names also remain available.

Morosi says he posed the question to Boras whether deals were imminent for any of his four top free agents. This was the response:

“We’re closer to deals than we were two weeks ago. Some of those things are only a phone call away.”

Clearly, there’s nothing earth-shattering in that quote. But it’s nevertheless notable to hear that real progress has been made. And given Boras’s frequent barrage of criticisms over the course of the offseason, it’s also worth emphasizing that this relative optimism could well be a real indication that the end is in sight for some of these players — particularly given the clear suggestion that there are some firm offers on the table.

Of course, there’s also little in the way of specifics. In some cases, Boras clients still seem to face relatively meager prospects for maximizing their value. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently examined the remaining top-fifty free agents in a piece that covers the field of potential suitors and illustrates the less-than-ideal leverage situation from the players’ perspective.

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