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Jhoulys Chacin

Brewers Sign Jhoulys Chacin

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TODAY: The contract is now official. It’s for $15.5MM, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (Twitter links), with a $1.5MM signing bonus and consecutive salaries of $8MM and $6MM.

YESTERDAY, 1:49pm: The sides are working to finalize a two-year pact for something approaching $8MM annually, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links). That’s right around the contract value that MLBTR suggested entering the winter.

11:19am: The Brewers are closing in on a contract with free agent righty Jhoulys Chacin, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Terms of the prospective deal are not known at this time. Chacin is a client of the Legacy Agency.

Jhoulys Chacin | Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Chacin, 30 next month, is fresh off one of the best seasons of his career, having notched a 3.89 ERA with 7.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 49.1 percent ground-ball rate over the life of 180 1/3 innings with the Padres, who signed him to a modest one-year commitment last offseason. Chacin’s strong output in 2017 positions him to handily top the $1.75MM guarantee he received in San Diego last winter. He’d join a Brewers rotation that will be without top starter Jimmy Nelson for a yet-undetermined portion of the 2018 campaign following September shoulder surgery.

Assuming the deal is ultimately completed, Chacin will join Chase Anderson and Zach Davies in the Milwaukee rotation, with Josh Hader, Brent Suter, Brandon Woodruff and Junior Guerra among the other candidates vying for opportunities to start. Chacin may not bring significant upside to the table, but he’s been a durable mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons and should help to stabilize a group that carried significant questions about the number of innings it could be reasonably expected to provide to manager Craig Counsell.

Chacin’s solid 2017 season did produce its fair share of skeptics — most notably owing to his significant home/road splits. In 100 1/3 innings at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park, Chacin logged a sensational 1.79 ERA, but that number spiked to a ghastly 6.59 in 80 road innings. Chacin also dominated right-handed hitters to the tune of a .213/.284/.318 opponents’ slash line, while lefties posted a much more adept .251/.356/.433 slash against him.

The move to a more hitter-friendly Miller Park, then, will undoubtedly raise some questions. However, Chacin enjoyed success earlier in his career in the game’s worst pitching environment, Coors Field, and he’s long limited home runs better than the average pitcher. Despite spending parts of six seasons in Colorado and despite the recent uptick in homers throughout the league, Chacin has averaged just 0.85 HR/9 as a big leaguer.

Newer metrics paint Chacin in a favorable light, as well; Statcast pegs Chacin’s average exit velocity on balls in the air (91.3 mph) and overall exit velocity (85.4 mph) among the weakest in the game for qualified pitchers. His .303 xwOBA, while not elite, places him alongside names like Danny Duffy, Jake Arrieta and Madison Bumgarner. That’s not to say, of course, that Chacin should be expected to produce at comparable levels to those three starters, but rather that his solid results and overall penchant for weak contact could be more conducive to success than his surface-level home/road splits would suggest.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

West Notes: Yu, G. Cole, Rangers, Stanton, Astros, Giants, Pads, A’s

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The Rangers talked to the Pirates about acquiring right-hander Gerrit Cole, but those discussions didn’t go anywhere, TR Sullivan of MLB.com reports (Twitter link). Given that the Rangers are in need of starters even after signing Doug Fister and Mike Minor, the possibility of them turning back to old friend and top free agent Yu Darvish has come up. General manager Jon Daniels revealed Monday that the Rangers and Darvish still have a strong relationship even after they traded him away last July, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram tweets. For his part, Darvish is interested in a reunion, agent Joel Wolfe told Wilson and other reporters (Twitter link). The potential of Texas deploying a six-man rotation doesn’t necessarily appeal to Darvish, though, despite the fact that he spoke in favor of that setup on multiple occasions in the past. “He’s one of those guys that would rather pitch on short rest than long rest,” Wolfe said.

More from the majors’ West divisions:

  • The reigning World Series champion Astros at least made an effort to acquire 2017 NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag (Twitter link). The two sides never came close to a deal before the Yankees landed Stanton, however, Heyman adds. Notably, the Astros were one of four teams to whom Stanton would’ve accepted a trade. He also would’ve added another terrifying force to an all-world lineup headed by AL MVP Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa.
  • Meanwhile, the Giants would’ve had Stanton had he been willing to waive his no-trade clause for them. Executive vice president of baseball operations Brian Sabean addressed his team’s failed pursuit Monday, saying his only “angst” stems from his belief that Wolfe didn’t make it clear that the Giants and Cardinals were just fallback options for Stanton (Twitter link via Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News). While the Giants were prepared to take on $230MM of Stanton’s $295MM contract to acquire him, that doesn’t mean they’re going to go into free-spending mode now that he’s out of the mix. Rather, they’re “back to being payroll conscious,” Heyman tweets.
  • Sabean also spoke on the subject of free agency and indicated that the Giants aren’t going to sign any players who rejected qualifying offers earlier this offseason. That could rule them out for rumored targets such as center fielder Lorenzo Cain and third baseman Mike Moustakas. Signing either of those players would cost the Giants not only money, but their second- and fifth-highest draft picks in 2018 and $1MM in international bonus pool money. “If you’re asking me personally, my vote would be a no, being that we wouldn’t want to get involved with somebody like that,” said Sabean, who highlighted the importance of having the second pick in every round of the next draft. GM Bobby Evans shares similar feelings, according to Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. While the Giants seem set to use those picks, they’re listening to offers for the No. 2 selection in this Thursday’s Rule 5 draft, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets.
  • The Padres “remain in constant communication” with free agent righty Jhoulys Chacin’s camp, GM A.J. Preller revealed (Twitter link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). A deal is not imminent, though, Cassavell adds. Chacin turned in a quality year with the Padres last season and should earn a nice contract as a result.
  • Athletics executive VP Billy Beane announced after the season that they’re hoping to sign some of their best young talent to contract extensions this offseason. That remains the case, Beane told reporters. Beane added that picking up a veteran starter is a low priority for the A’s, saying they’re “not overly impressed with guys that would be available to us” (Twitter links via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle and Jane Lee of MLB.com).

NL West Notes: JDM, Chacin, Stammen, Hosmer, Diamondbacks

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Scarcely a day goes by in which the Giants are not linked to Giancarlo Stanton on multiple occasions, but John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that San Francisco is also considering the other top right-handed slugger that is available this offseason: J.D. Martinez. It’s not clear if the Giants have sat down with agent Scott Boras, and Shea is careful to note that the Giants are internally discussing a wide number of options to improve their offense. Martinez would represent the most aggressive means of doing so on the free-agent market. He’ll command fewer years and dollars than the remaining decade and $295MM on Stanton’s contract, though Boras is reportedly seeking a sky-high $210MM over seven years early in the offseason. (Martinez will quite likely sign for less than that, as early asking prices are always on the high side for any free agent.)

Working against the Giants is a payroll that is already dangerously close to the luxury tax barrier and that Martinez doesn’t help the Giants’ stated goals of improving the outfield defense or getting better in center field.

More on the from the division…

  • The Padres are interested in reunions with right-handers Jhoulys Chacin and Craig Stammen, general manager A.J. Preller told reporters at this week’s GM Meetings (link via MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell). “From our standpoint, it’s about seeing how the next couple weeks play out,” said Preller. “They’re two guys we have interest in bringing back. We’ve got to see if we line up financially.” Cassavell reports that the Friars would consider a multi-year deal for either pitcher, though such a contract would likely need to come with a discounted second year. San Diego has a number of arms rising through the system and may not relish the idea of blocking those arms, though from my vantage point having either Chacin or Stammen around at an affordable rate is a good problem to have if all parties are performing well.
  • In a separate pair of Padres columns, Cassavell characterizes their interest in Eric Hosmer as little more than due diligence, while Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears a bit differently and reports that their interest goes “beyond the cursory level.” Cassavell notes that the Padres have kicked the tires on roughly 50 free agents thus far (most of them pitchers) as they look to get a full picture of the free-agent market. Lin, meanwhile, suggests that the Padres may be intrigued both by Hosmer’s intangible leadership qualities and by his 25-homer output despite being an extreme ground-ball hitter. A willingness to amend that approach and put the ball in the air more often could yield untapped power; I’d imagine that the Padres, who call spacious Petco Park their home, are also intrigued by the pop that Hosmer showed in his own cavernous home park (Kauffman Stadium) in spite of an approach that isn’t traditionally conducive to power.
  • The D-backs have added Jason Parks to their front office as their new director of pro scouting, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports (via Twitter). Parks, who many readers may remember from his excellent work at Baseball Prospectus, has been with the Cubs as a scout and a special assistant since 2014. He’ll join an increasingly youthful Arizona front office that is led by GM Mike Hazen and assistant GMs Jared Porter and Amiel Sawadaye. Notably, Parks’ role as director of pro scouting will be the same one that Porter filled with the Cubs when he and Parks were colleagues in Chicago.

West Notes: Padres, Angels, Rangers

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Padres right-hander Jhoulys Chacin threw 180 1/3 innings of 3.89 ERA ball and contributed upward of two wins above replacement this season, making him one of the top bargain signings of 2017. Chacin inked a $1.75MM deal with the Padres last winter and should fare much better on his next contract, one that might come from another organization. But Chacin told AJ Cassavell of MLB.com and other reporters Saturday that he’d be willing to continue his career in San Diego (Twitter link). “It’s hard to tell,” Chacin said of his future. “But I would be really happy to come back here.” Re-signing the capable innings eater would make a lot of sense for the rebuilding, starter-needy Padres, as MLBTR’s Jason Martinez wrote Friday.

More from San Diego and a couple other cities:

  • Padres owner Ron Fowler informed Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune that there are “a couple people we’re fairly close to getting deals done with,” which could mean Chacin or any of their other impending free agents. Regardless, both Fowler and managing partner Ron Seidler suggested to Lin that they’re happy with how this year has gone for the club. Seidler has seen enough progress to believe the Padres could soon be a factor in the NL West, a division the big-spending Dodgers have ruled over the past half-decade. Looking ahead two years, Seidler said: “At minimum, if we’re not in the chase for (the playoffs), I’d be disappointed. (If not), it wouldn’t mean I’d be angry or upset or anything. I think, given where we are right now, in 2019 we should have every chance not to just be a playoff team but to win the division.” Check out Lin’s full piece for more quotes from Seidler and Fowler on the direction of the franchise.
  • By starting in his final three appearances of the year, Angels righty Bud Norris lost out on a $500K bonus, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. Norris would have collected that money had he made 60 relief appearances (he finished with 57), but starting him was not a money-saving move by the Angels. Rather, Norris volunteered to switch roles down the stretch, his representative revealed. “He did it for the team,” agent Joel Wolfe told Fletcher. “Now he’s going into free agency as one of the most versatile and valuable pitching assets given the ways teams tactically use their pitching staffs. The value he’s gotten out of starting is far in excess of that performance bonus.” Norris joined the Angels on a minor league deal last January and proved to be a shrewd pickup, pitching to a 4.21 ERA and recording 10.74 K/9 against 3.92 BB/9 over 62 innings. Thanks to that production, he seems likely to land a major league contract during the upcoming offseason.
  • Shin-Soo Choo has gotten some practice reps at first base this week and could end up as a part-time option there in 2018 for the Rangers, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes. The Rangers are likely to cut ties with Mike Napoli after the season, which could open up first for Joey Gallo, but he’s probably better suited for the outfield, Wilson observes. Should Gallo take a spot in the grass, it might lead to some time at first for Choo, who has only served as an outfielder and a designated hitter since making his big league debut in 2005. Advanced defensive metrics have typically been bearish on Choo’s work in the field, though, and he’ll turn 36 next summer. First seems like a more logical place for him, then, though Wilson cautions that this experiment isn’t guaranteed to stretch into next season. Offensively, the lefty-swinging Choo has turned in another respectable year with 22 home runs, 12 stolen bases and a .261/.357/.423 line in 636 plate appearances.

Free Agents That Have Boosted Their Stock On One-Year Deals

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With the offseason looming, it’s easy to focus on the top free agents this winter will have to offer. We at MLBTR reinforce that line of thinking with monthly Free Agent Power Rankings that profile the top names slated to hit the open market and ranking them in terms of earning power.

Settling for a one-year contract isn’t an ideal route for most free agents, but that doesn’t mean that those (relative) bargain pickups can’t bring significant on-field impact to the teams with which they sign. While none of the players on this list received all that much fanfare when signing, they’ve all provided some notable benefit to the teams that made these commitments:

  • Kurt Suzuki, $1.5MM, Braves: Suzuki languished in free agency for several months as players like Jason Castro, Matt Wieters and Welington Castillo all generated more attention from teams and fans. However, it might be Suzuki that has provided the most bang for buck on last winter’s catching market. The 33-year-old has had a surprising career year in Atlanta, hitting .266/.344/.507 with 15 homers to date. Some have been quick to suggest that Atlanta’s new homer-happy stadium has benefited Suzuki, and while that may be true to an extent, he’s hit for more power on the road than at home. He’s put himself in position for a possible two-year deal this winter, but if he has to settle for one yet again, it should come at a higher rate.
  • Adam Lind, $1.5MM, Nationals: An awful 2016 season and an overcrowded market for corner bats created some questions about whether Lind would have to settle for a minor league contract late last winter. He ultimately secured a guaranteed deal, but it came with just a $1MM base and a $500K buyout of a mutual option. For that meager commitment, he’s given the Nats 267 plate appearances with a .297/.352/.490 slash to go along with 11 homers. Like Suzuki, that might not land him a starting role, but it could land him multiple years as a complementary bench piece.
  • Chris Iannetta, $1.5MM, Diamondbacks: Iannetta has not only rediscovered his power stroke in 2017 — he’s made it better than ever. The 34-year-old’s .249 ISO is a career best, and he’s slugged 14 homers. While that’s still four shy of his career-best with the 2008 Rockies, Iannetta’s 14 big flies this year have come in just 272 PAs, whereas he needed 407 to reach 18 back in ’08. He’s also bounced back from a down year in the framing department and been above average in that regard, per Baseball Prospectus.
  • Jhoulys Chacin and Clayton Richard, $1.75MM each, Padres: The Friars signed four starters for $3MM or less last winter — Jered Weaver and Trevor Cahill being the others — and have received a combined 345 innings out of this pair. Chacin’s run-prevention (4.06 ERA) and strikeout rate (7.44 K/9) have been better, while Richard has 13 more innings (179 total), superior control (2.6 BB/9) and superior ground-ball tendencies (59.1 percent). Neither is going to be mistaken for much more than a back-of-the-rotation stabilizer, but both have done enough to garner larger commitments on the upcoming open market.
  • Brian Duensing, $2MM, Cubs: I doubt I was alone in being surprised to see Duensing, 34, land a Major League deal last winter on the heels of a lackluster season in the Orioles organization. Duensing, though, has quietly been outstanding for the Cubs. In 54 2/3 innings, he’s logged a career-high 9.05 K/9 rate with 2.30 BB/9 and a 47 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 2.63 ERA. He’s held lefties in check reasonably well, but the first time in his career he’s also striking out right-handed batters at a lofty rate. In fact, the .211/.276/.317 that righties have posted against him is actually weaker than the .256/.300/.388 slash to which he’s limited left-handed bats.
  • Matt Belisle, $2.05MM, Twins: Belisle’s inclusion is arguable; he’s posted a pedestrian 4.36 ERA with 8.55 K/9, 3.69 BB/9 and a 42.2 percent ground-ball rate. Those numbers are largely skewed by a putrid month of May, however. Since June 3, Belisle has a 2.25 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning and improved control and ground-ball tendencies — all while stepping into higher and higher leverage roles. He’s now serving as the Twins’ closer and has a 1.54 ERA with a 29-to-5 K/BB ratio since July 1. He’ll be 38 next season, so the earning power here isn’t sky-high, but he’s probably earned a raise, barring a late collapse.
  • Logan Morrison, $2.5MM, Rays: Few players have benefited more from one-year, “pillow” contracts in  recent memory than Morrison, who has parlayed his $2.5MM deal into a .248/.355/.529 batting line and a 36-homer season campaign to date. Morrison only just turned 30 years old, so he’ll have age on his side this winter as well. A three- or four-year deal seems plausible for Morrison even with the diminished recent market for corner bats.
  • Alex Avila, $2.5MM, Tigers: Avila hasn’t been as excellent with the Cubs as he was with the Tigers, but he’s still among the league leaders in hard contact and exit velocity — both of which have beautifully complemented his always-terrific walk rate (15.9 percent in 2016). With 14 homers under his belt and a batting line that grades out roughly 25 percent better than the league average, per context-neutral metrics like OPS+ (124) and wRC+ (127), Avila could vie for a multi-year deal and/or a starting job this offseason.
  • Joe Smith, $3MM, Blue Jays: Smith’s K/9 has nearly doubled, from 6.92 in 2016 to 11.86 in 2017, and he’s posted a dramatically improved 1.82 BB/9 this year as well. Smith has also served up just three homers in 49 1/3 innings of work, and his 3.10 ERA, while solid, is actually representative of some poor fortune in the estimation of fielding-independent metrics (1.97 FIP, 2.35 xFIP, 2.34 SIERA). He’ll be 34 next year but should top that $3MM mark and could net the second multi-year free-agent deal of his career.
  • Andrew Cashner, $10MM, Rangers: MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently took a more in-depth look at Cashner, noting that his strong 3.19 ERA isn’t backed up by his K/BB numbers. Cashner’s complete lack of missed bats — he has the lowest swinging-strike rate and second-lowest K/9 rate of qualified MLB starters — is going to limit his earning power. But, he’s undeniably been better than he was in 2016, his velocity is comparable to last season and he’s limited hard contact quite well. A multi-year deal is certainly a possibility this offseason.
  • Carlos Gomez, $11.5MM, Rangers: Gomez’s production hasn’t reached the star levels it did in 2013-14, but he’s been a better performer at the plate this season. A spike in his OBP (from .298 to .337) is due largely to a massive increase in the number of pitches by which he’s been hit, which is less encouraging than if he’d upped his walk rate considerably. However, Gomez has also shown quite a bit more power in 2017 than he had in recent seasons (.208 ISO in ’17 vs. .153 in ’15-16 combined), and Defensive Runs Saved feels he’s improved in center field as well. Gomez won’t see the massive payday he looked to be on pace for after 2014, but he’s still young enough to notch a multi-year deal this winter.

Notable exceptions: Neither Welington Castillo nor Greg Holland is included on this list, though both have provided good value to their new teams (Castillo in particular). While their contracts are often referred to as one-year deals with a player option, that type of contract is no more a one-year deal than Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184MM deal with a third-year opt-out is a three-year deal. Both players were guaranteed the possibility to be under contract for two years, and those agreements are considered two-year deals for the purposes of this list.

Jerry Blevins has also given the Mets terrific value on his one-year, $6.5MM deal, but the club option attached to that deal is a veritable lock to be exercised, so he’s unlikely to hit the free-agent market again following the season.

NL West Notes: CarGo, Chacin, Duplantier

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The Rockies offered Carlos Gonzalez a new four-year deal during extension talks last spring, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports.  The two sides explored an extension for the long-time Colorado outfielder during the offseason, though talks never seemed to get too far — this four-year proposal is the only known offer exchanged, apart from some “initial suggestions” from Rockies management that were rejected out of hand by Gonzalez’s representatives in early December.  Gonzalez said that he and the team hadn’t engaged in serious talks as of last February 22, and negotiations were reportedly “on hold” as of early March.  The dollar value of the offer isn’t known (Nightengale describes it as “lucrative”), though the fact that Colorado was willing to offer four years to a player who will be 32 next Opening Day is in itself significant, especially since the Rockies have several other interesting outfielders on their big league roster and in the minors.  The lack of an extension looms large for Gonzalez in the wake of his disappointing 2017 season — he has suffered through two DL stints and is batting a career-worst .228/.299/.345 over 365 plate appearances.

(Apart from the Gonzalez item, Nightengale’s piece focuses on how several of baseball’s biggest names are dealing with the extra pressure facing them as they approach free agency.  The piece includes quotes from Jake Arrieta, J.D. Martinez, John Lackey and more, and is well worth a full read.)

Here’s more from around the NL West…

  • Jhoulys Chacin has expressed openness to re-signing with the Padres this winter, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  Chacin has posted good results after signing a one-year, $1.75MM deal with the Padres last winter, and it isn’t surprising that the righty would like to stay at Petco Park — Chacin has a 1.86 ERA over 12 home starts (77.1 IP) this year, as opposed to a 7.35 ERA over 10 starts (49 IP) on the road.  Those large splits were one reason, Lin notes, why the Padres may not have been able to move Chacin before the deadline, though Lin was surprised the team couldn’t have found at least one suitor willing to part with more than a token prospect.
  • The Diamondbacks received some interest in minor league right-hander Jon Duplantier prior to the trade deadline, Fangraphs’ David Laurila reports.  The 23-year-old Duplantier, a third-round pick for Arizona in the 2016 draft, has a 1.53 ERA, 10/1 K/9 and 4.25 K/BB rate over 106 combined innings at the high-A and A-ball levels this season.  MLB.com ranks Duplantier as the second-best prospect in Arizona’s system, citing his “power curve,” solid changeup and fastball in the 91-96 mph range, though the righty has also already had some shoulder and elbow issues early in his career.  A source with another club tells Laurila that the D’Backs put a high asking price on Duplantier in trade talks.

NL West Notes: Giants, Eibner, Dodgers, Hand, Chacin

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After watching a last-place team make just one move prior to the non-waiver deadline, Giants fans felt plenty of frustration, but GM Bobby Evans spoke to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle about the front office’s recognition that changes need to be made before the 2018 season commences. “How much we can accomplish between now and the beginning of 2018 remains to be seen,” said Evans. “…Some of that has to be us on alert for what opportunities exist. As we sit here today, we’ve got a lot of ideas where clubs see our guys.” The offseason is a likelier time for significant changes than the August waiver trade season, Evans indicated. Schulman writes that the Giants are lacking both power and defense in the outfield, though the presence of veterans Denard Span and Hunter Pence, both signed through 2018, adds another layer of complexity to the front office’s quest for improvement.

More from the division…

  • The Dodgers had been experimenting with outfielder Brett Eibner as a pitcher, but his season will come to an end due to Tommy John surgery, tweets J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group. Eibner hadn’t actually gotten into a game in the minors, as he’s been dealing with soreness in his arm for awhile now. The Dodgers’ reported plan for Eibner wasn’t to convert him to a pitcher on a full-time basis but to use him as an outfielder and occasional reliever. Eibner pitched and played in the outfield in his college days but had been exclusively a position player since turning pro.
  • While the Dodgers have drawn headlines for their enormous Major League payrolls, their commitment to international spending has played a huge role in their success as well, writes Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times. As Shaikin notes, the Dodgers shipped out three prospects signed as international amateurs yesterday to acquire Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani, and their willingness to spend on that market has persistently left them with ammunition for trades. “The kind of scouting and player development infrastructure you have can pay off in terms of guys rising to the big leagues and impacting your team, or sometimes being able to make trades like this,” said GM Farhan Zaidi. “It’s certainly a credit to our scouting and player development staffs for giving us the players and prospect capital we needed to pull off these deals today.” The new hard cap on international spending will make that strategy more difficult, though the Dodgers have a history of finding creative ways to build up their farm by leveraging financial muscle.
  • Padres general manager A.J. Preller chatted with Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune about his lack of trades at the non-waiver deadline — specifically the decision to hold onto lefty Brad Hand and righty Jhoulys Chacin. Preller indicated that he simply didn’t receive an offer that he deemed to bring more value to the organization than Hand, acknowledging that while it’s possible he’ll incur an injury or decline, it’s also possible that Hand sustains or enhances his value with improved performance. His comments on Chacin were more interesting. “I know it’s easy for somebody to say, ‘Well, he’s a free agent at the end of the year. Just take anything,'” said Preller. “We’ve built our (farm) system up to the point where, just to take a non-prospect for the purpose of making a trade, we weren’t interested in doing that.” The Friars could move Chacin in a waiver deal, but they’ll also explore the possibility of signing him beyond 2017, Preller tells Lin.

Trade Rumblings: Darvish, Marlins, Starters, Tigers, Astros, Iglesias, Hand

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There’s “increasing buzz” that the Rangers will listen to offers on top starters Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels if they don’t open the second half of the season with strong play, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. It’s been previously reported that the Rangers will hold onto Darvish even if they fall out of the race, so that’d represent something of a change of mindset for GM Jon Daniels & Co. Darvish is set to hit the open market at season’s end, so if the Rangers are out of the race and don’t trade him, they run the risk of losing him to free agency (though he’d obviously receive and reject a qualifying offer, affording Texas some draft compensation). Hamels, meanwhile, hasn’t been listed as a potential trade target to date. He’s earning $23.5MM this year and next, and he’s owed at least $6MM as the buyout on a $20MM club option for the 2019 campaign. That contract and a bizarrely low strikeout rate (4.9 K/9) could complicate Hamels’ market, though he’s shown recent improvement with 12 strikeouts in his past 14 1/3 innings of work.

More trade chatter from around the league…

  • The Marlins have told other clubs that they’re ready to sell off assets, a rival executive tells Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller. According to Miller, the Marlins have spoken to more than 10 teams about right-hander David Phelps, and there are two or three clubs that are showing “serious” interest in closer AJ Ramos. “They’re working on it and talking to clubs,” the exec tells Miller. “But the conversations always end with one caveat, that they don’t know that the owner won’t bail at the last minute.” Miller adds that Giancarlo Stanton isn’t likely to move until the Marlins accept that they won’t get someone to take his salary and give prospects back. The industry feeling is that it’d have to be almost a straight salary dump. (Stanton can also veto any deal via his no-trade clause.) Miller’s column features a look at all 30 teams and their possible deadline course as well.
  • Sonny Gray, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are available in trades, writes Jon Morosi of MLB.com, but the Athletics, Tigers and Pirates have each set a lofty asking price. Perhaps more interestingly, Morosi adds that the Braves have said right-hander Julio Teheran isn’t available, though he’s reportedly been drawing interest and others (including David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports) have said that Atlanta would at least consider offers. In addition to that overview of the market for pitchers, Morosi runs down a position-by-position preview of the market for bats.
  • Heyman reports that there’s little to no genuine interest in Justin Verlander at this time due to his huge contract and underwhelming numbers. Furthermore, he notes that due to Verlander’s status as a legend in Detroit, they can’t accept an underwhelming return and effectively signal to Tigers fans that his trade was a salary dump. There’s also very little interest in Ian Kinsler, according to Heyman, as the he’s struggled in 2017 and few teams are on the hunt for second base help. He adds that Alex Avila, J.D. Martinez and Justin Wilson are all drawing strong interest, however, so GM Al Avila should make some deals in the next 18 days.
  • In his weekly AL Notes column, Heyman reports that with few top starters left on the market, the Astros may instead pursue high-end bullpen help in an effort to shorten the game and load up the relief corps for the postseason. Unsurprisingly, their list of targets would include Zach Britton, if he’s available. (Most clubs in the league would perk up at the notion of acquiring a healthy Britton.)
  • Heyman also notes that Braves left-hander Jaime Garcia is one rental pitcher that interests the Royals. On the subject of Kansas City, he also notes that while the team does have interest in Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon, K.C. would want Miami to pay down some of the roughly $41MM remaining on Gordon’s contract, which the Fish aren’t willing to do. The same is true of the Angels and Blue Jays, he adds, both of whom like the player but not his current salary.
  • Meanwhile, in his NL Notes column, Heyman writes that the Reds are believed to be willing to listen to offers on closer Raisel Iglesias but would only move him for a package that would “blow them away.” The 27-year-old Iglesias has emerged as one of baseball’s best relievers and is controllable through the 2020 season. He’s affordable at the moment ($3.5MM in 2017), but his contract allows him to opt into arbitration once eligible, so his salary is going to balloon quite a bit between now and 2020. Heyman also notes that the Reds would be interested in a two- or possibly three-year deal with Zack Cozart but recognize that he can earn more than they’re willing to pay when he gets to free agency.
  • The Yankees, Nationals, Dodgers, Cubs, Brewers, Royals, Angels and Mariners could all be in the mix for lefty Brad Hand, Heyman reports. Regarding the Dodgers, Heyman and Robert Murray report that San Diego asked Los Angeles for top prospect Alex Verdugo in return, though there’s “no likelihood” of L.A. meeting that price. The Padres are also getting calls on cheap starters Trevor Cahill, Clayton Richard and Jhoulys Chacin, each of whom inked a one-year deal worth $1.75MM this past offseason.

Sherman’s Latest: Matz, Padres, Maurer, Yankees, Rangers, Smith, Mariners

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Officials from several teams tell Joel Sherman of the New York Post that this year’s deadline market is lacking in top-tier starting pitching.  Jose Quintana and Sonny Gray are the top names available, though both have their share of flaws; Quintana’s rather shaky performance this year and Gray’s long-term health are concerns.  With the market thin on aces, Sherman wonder if the Cardinals and Tigers would consider shopping controllable young stars Carlos Martinez or Michael Fulmer, each of whom would score an enormous return at the deadline.  The Cards and Tigers could get more than the prospect package the White Sox landed for Chris Sale last winter since so many teams would be vying for those stars.  It should be noted, however, that “there is no indication whatsoever” that either St. Louis or Detroit would even consider moving either pitcher.

Here’s more from Sherman in the previously-linked article and in two other pieces (first link, second link)…

  • Mets officials dismissed any notion of trading Steven Matz, in relation to Sherman’s consideration of teams trading controllable young arms.  Elbow problems kept Matz from debuting until June, and he has a 2.12 ERA through five starts, though advanced metrics paint a much less impressive view of Matz’s performance.  While the lefty would be a big trade chip if made available, it’s also certainly understandable why the Mets see him as a future building block, especially since Matz hasn’t even reached arbitration eligibility yet.
  • The Padres have received interest in starters Trevor Cahill, Jhoulys Chacin and Clayton Richard, as well as relievers Craig Stammen and Jose Torres.
  • The Yankees have already been linked to Padres reliever Brad Hand, but Sherman reports that closer Brandon Maurer’s name has also come up in talks between the two teams.  Maurer has a 5.60 ERA over 35 1/3 IP for San Diego this year but he has been victimized by a inordinately low 52.9% strand rate.  ERA indicators (2.95 FIP, 3.56 xFIP, 3.31 SIERA) and his peripheral numbers (8.92 K/9, 5.00 K/BB rate) paint a much more positive view of his 2017 performance.  San Diego had interest in Gleyber Torres prior to his Tommy John surgery, though officials from the Padres and other teams believe that the Yankees’ farm system is deep enough that they’ll be able to make deals without moving any of their top prospects.
  • Control may be more of a commodity than pure talent in the reliever market, according to one NL executive.  “My sense is that if you have a reliever who is under control through at least next year, you can expect more interest and a greater return than for a slightly better reliever who is a free agent after this season,” the executive said.
  • One team is looking to add controllable pieces both its bullpen and in general is the Rangers, in a return to their strategy from the 2015 deadline.  One AL official feels Texas will add one or two relievers, and whomever the Rangers may add, “I would be shocked if that player did not have control through at least next season.”
  • The Red Sox are still waiting to see if Carson Smith can be a bullpen asset for them this season before fully exploring the relief market.  Smith is expected to start mound work this week as he continues his rehab from Tommy John surgery, though his process was already delayed when he was shut down from throwing for a spell last month.  Given that it would surprising to see Smith even return to action before July 31, one would think Boston will end up looking at relief help and counting on Smith only as a potential bonus down the stretch.
  • The Mariners are one of only a few teams open to adding payroll in deadline trades, which one official describes as not “as good as having prospects, but it is an asset.”  The M’s began 2017 with a record payroll of more than $155.2MM, so with such a major financial investment already made, it makes sense that GM Jerry Dipoto and company are willing to spend a bit more to get the team over the hump.  Dipoto recently stated that the team is still planning to add at the deadline, though Seattle ends the first half with a 43-47 record (albeit four games out of a wild card spot).

Taking Inventory: San Diego Padres

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This is the sixth entry in MLBTR’s Taking Inventory series. Click for entries on the White Sox, Royals, Phillies, Pirates and Giants.

After trading Derek Norris this past offseason, the part of the Padres’ rebuild that involved trading away veterans to shed salary and/or make room for younger players had come to an end. But that didn’t close the door on general manager A.J. Preller’s ability to wheel and deal during the 2017 season. By signing a quartet of free agent starting pitchers to help bridge the gap until the team’s younger pitchers were ready to contribute—Trevor Cahill, Jhoulys Chacin, Clayton Richard and Jered Weaver were each signed to one-year deals for a combined total of $8.25MM— they also added some potential trade chips to go along with any other players on the roster with less than three years of club control.

With three of the four veteran starters having established some trade value and several other players expected to draw strong interest, the only question is how long Preller waits before pulling the trigger on his first trade of 2017. Let’s break down who could become available…

Rentals

Clayton Richard, LHP (starter) | Salary: $1.75MM

Richard has had a career resurgence since joining the Padres last August, posting a 3.64 ERA over 141.2 innings. The 33-year-old was one out away from a complete game shutout on Tuesday before allowing a 2-run double on his 127th pitch of the game. It was the third time this season he’s flirted with that rare feat. He allowed one earned run in a complete game win against the D’backs on May 21st and pitched eight shutout innings against the Dodgers in his 2017 debut in April. He’s also completed at least six innings in nine of his 14 starts. A reliable lefty starter who can pitch deep into games can be very useful on a playoff contender.

Jhoulys Chacin, RHP (starter) | Salary: $1.75MM

Aside from three disastrous starts, which account for 23 earned runs over 10 innings, Chacin has been pretty good for the Padres. The 29-year-old hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in his other 10 starts and has completed at least six innings on eight different occasions. A reunion with the Rockies would make a lot of sense as their young pitching staff will need some help down the stretch.

Trevor Cahill, RHP (starter) | Salary: $1.75MM

A pair of disabled list stints due to back and shoulder injuries will likely keep Cahill’s trade value to a minimum, but he’s been impressive in a seven-start sample with a 3.27 ERA and 11.1 K/9 in 41.1 innings pitched. If he can return to health—he’s on track to be activated in the next few weeks—the 29-year-old should have at least 4 or 5 starts to showcase his talent to a contending team. He could also draw interest as a reliever based on his strong 2016 season out of the bullpen for the World Champion Cubs.

Erick Aybar, SS | Salary: $1.5MM

There’s not much of a market for shortstops and Aybar has been a disappointment, anyways, with a .215/.282/.328 slash line in 196 plate appearances. Nevertheless, he can be had for very little if a team is looking to add some veteran infield depth. At this rate, he’s more likely to be released than traded.

Craig Stammen, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $900K 

Stammen’s ERA is a bit inflated (4.25) due to a three-appearance stretch in April when he allowed 10 earned runs in three innings. Aside from that, his numbers (36 IP, 2.8 BB/9, 9.0 K/9) look very similar to his those he posted as a very effective multi-inning reliever with the Washington Nationals from 2012-2014. The 33-year-old has pitched at least two innings in 10 of his 22 appearances and has held right-handed hitters to a .610 OPS.

 

Controlled Through 2019

Brad Hand, LHP (reliever) | Salary: $1.375MM (arbitration-eligible this winter)

While there was some early-season trade buzz surrounding Hand after a dominant first month, his more recent struggles—he has a 4.57 ERA over his last 18 appearances with two blown saves and four losses—have most likely scared off any suitors who would’ve been willing to strike early and meet what would’ve been a very high asking price. Still, the 27-year-old has emerged as one of the better lefty setup men in baseball over the past year. The Red Sox were able to flip two-and-a-half months of Andrew Miller for a Top 100 prospect (Eduardo Rodriguez) at the 2014 trade deadline. Hand isn’t Miller, but he’s under team control for two-and-a-half years so it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Padres could net a fairly significant return.

Brandon Maurer, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $1.9MM in 2017, (arbitration-eligible this winter)

Maurer could be a tough sell with his 6.15 ERA, but he’s saved 12 of 14 games, throws a sinking fastball that reaches the upper 90s and is averaging 9.6 K/9. He was also very good after taking over as the Padres’ closer last July, converting 13 of 15 save chances while posting a 3.09 ERA. A team would have to be willing to pay the price for what Maurer has been aside from a handful of bad games—he has a 2.45 ERA if you throw out three awful appearances. Otherwise, the Padres will be happy to hold on to him until at least the upcoming offseason.

Yangervis Solarte, 2B/3B | Salary: $2.625MM in 2017, $4.125MM in 2018, $5.5MM club option for 2019, not eligible for free agency if declined (plus $750K buyout of $8MM club option for 2020)

The 29-year-old, who was rewarded with a two-year contract extension after a breakout season in 2016, has finally heated up after struggling through the first month-and-a-half of 2017. As a result—Solarte is slashing .333/.429/.474 over his last 21 games—trade interest could soon pick up for the switch-hitting infielder. His team-friendly contract, defensive versatility and ability to come through in the clutch—he has a .956 OPS with runners in scoring position—could make him a nice under-the-radar acquisition for a contending team.

 

Longer-Term Assets

Wil Myers, 1B (starter) | Salary: $4.5MM in 2017, $4.5MM in 2018, $5.5MM in 2019, $22.5MM in 2020, 2021 and 2022 (plus $1MM buyout of $20MM club option for 2023)

The Padres made it clear that Myers was a player they wanted to build around when they gave him a franchise-record $83MM contract extension in January. That doesn’t mean they’re not willing to listen if a team was interested in trading for the 26-year-old All-Star, who had 29 homers and 28 stolen bases in 2016. Teams probably won’t be willing to take on that big contract, however, until he’s proven that he can be an MVP-caliber player since he’ll be paid like one in a few years. Based on his current slump (.547 OPS, HR, 37 strikeouts in 97 plate appearances), I’m guessing that he’s not quite ready to make the jump from “very good” player to “great” player.

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