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2017-18 Rule 5 Draft Update

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When we last checked in on this year’s crop of Rule 5 players, there were a combined 11 players — six on active rosters and five on the Major League disabled list — still with their new organizations. That number has fallen to nine, with six players (albeit a different mix) still active in the Majors, plus another three hanging around on the DL. The number could shrink again in the near future, as several of the remaining Rule 5-ers are seldom used pieces, and at least two teams will soon likely have to make a call.

Active Big Leaguers

  • Victor Reyes, OF, Tigers (from D-backs): Reyes has received only 38 plate appearances since our last Rule 5 roundup, hitting .211/.211/.342 in that span. He’s picked up a pair of triples and a double, his first extra-base hits in the Majors, but is hitting just .196/.196/.304 on the season as a whole. The Tigers barely use Reyes, outside of pinch-running and late-game defensive switches, but the longer they commit to hanging onto him, the less likely it becomes that they return him to Arizona. At this point, they’ve played more than a third of the season with an effective 24-man roster, so they seem likely to see this through.
  • Brad Keller, RHP, Royals (from D-backs, via trade w/ Reds): The 22-year-old Keller hasn’t picked up many strikeouts (5.9 K/9) and hasn’t displayed elite control (3.3 BB/9), but he’s sporting a 57.9 percent ground-ball rate in 35 innings for Kansas City — including three starts. He boasts a 2.31 ERA thus far in 2018, though his 0.26 HR/9 mark and 82.2 percent strand rate seem poised to regress. Nonetheless, he’s performed well enough to date that there’s no reason for the Royals to consider cutting ties.
  • Burch Smith, RHP, Royals (from Rays, via trade w/ Mets): Smith, on the other hand, is a more complicated case for GM Dayton Moore and his staff. The 28-year-old is currently lugging a 6.49 ERA to the mound with him after surrendering 10 runs in his past 7 1/3 innings. Smith has racked up 28 strikeouts in 26 1/3 innings, but he’s also issued 18 walks and hit two batters. Beyond that, seven of the 26 hits he’s allowed with Kansas City have cleared the fence.
  • Pedro Araujo, RHP, Orioles (from Cubs): Araujo was one of four players in Spring Training with the Orioles who came with Rule 5 status, but he’s the last to remain on their MLB roster. (Anthony Santander, who missed much of last season due to injury, fulfilled his Rule 5 requirements last monthM and was optioned to Triple-A.) Araujo was torched for four runs last night, including a pair of homers, and he now has a 7.71 ERA in 28 innings with the O’s. That’s not exactly a surprise considering the fact that he skipped both Double-A and Triple-A, and to his credit, Araujo has punched out 29 hitters in his 28 frames (albeit against 18 walks and two hit batters). Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun wrote this morning that Araujo’s roster spot could be in jeopardy with Zach Britton coming off the disabled list.
  • Carlos Tocci, OF, Rangers (from Phillies, via trade w/ White Sox): Texas stashed Tocci, 22, on the disabled list with a hip contusion for more than a month and rode his rehabilitation window as long as possible. Since being activated on June 2, Tocci hasn’t logged a single plate appearance. The Rangers’ season looks to be lost, so they may as well hang onto Tocci if they believe he has any shot at a future in the organization. He’s just 2-for-25 in 14 games this season and has struggled in Triple-A, but Tocci was productive for the Phillies’ Double-A club last season and hit well in Double-A during last month’s rehab assignment, too.
  • Elieser Hernandez, RHP, Marlins (from Astros): Hernandez has allowed just 10 earned runs through 23 innings for a 3.91 ERA, but he’s also picked up just 10 strikeouts and yielded five homers. Hernandez, 23, has shown strong control (four walks), but he looks quite hittable through his brief run with Miami so far. As with each team listed in this section, though, they can certainly afford to hang onto him.

On the Disabled List

  • Julian Fernandez, RHP, Giants (from Rockies): Fernandez underwent Tommy John surgery back in April. He’ll accrue MLB service time while spending the season on the 60-day disabled list and will retain his Rule 5 status heading into 2019, if the Giants wish to hang onto him all offseason.
  • Nick Burdi, RHP, Pirates (from Twins via trade w/ Phillies): The Pirates picked up Burdi knowing he’d miss much of the 2018 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, and he’s yet to throw in the minors. That said, Burdi is a former supplemental-round pick who was selected toward the top of the draft thanks to an 80-grade heater that regularly touches triple digits. If he can get healthy enough to pitch this season, the Bucs will have a free look at a tantalizing power arm.
  • Brett Graves, RHP, Marlins (from Athletics): The Marlins placed Graves on the 60-day disabled list with an oblique strain back on Opening Day, so he’s yet to pitch in the Majors. He has, however, recovered to the point where he’s begun pitching on a minor league rehab assignment. The results haven’t been pretty. Graves has a 6.23 ERA with a 16-to-7 K/BB ratio and four hit batters in 17 1/3 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. He’s also nearing the end of his 30-day rehab window. His first rehab appearance came back on May 17, so the Marlins have less than a week to determine whether to bring Graves up to the Majors or run him through waivers and offer him back to Oakland.

Returned to Original Organization

Giants’ Julian Fernandez To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Giants right-hander Julian Fernandez will undergo Tommy John surgery on Thursday, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area was among those to report. San Francisco previously placed Fernandez on the 60-day disabled list earlier this week.

The 22-year-old Fernandez has never even pitched above the Single-A level, nor is he a high-end prospect. But the news is particularly noteworthy because Fernandez was a Rule 5 pick last December, when the Giants snatched him from the NL West rival Rockies with the No. 2 selection. The fact that Fernandez will now undergo this procedure means he’ll rack up a year of service time and earn a a major league-minimum salary ($545K) in the process. As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk noted earlier this week, that could be a minor nuisance for San Francisco, which has little wiggle room as it works to stay under the $197MM competitive balance tax threshold.

During 7 1/3 spring innings with the Giants, Fernandez yielded a whopping 11 earned runs on 10 hits and five walks, with an eye-opening 12 strikeouts. Fernandez was far more effective at preventing runs last year in 58 innings with the Rockies’ Single-A affiliate, as he logged a 3.26 ERA/3.09 FIP with 8.84 K/9 and 2.79 BB/9.

Giants Place Mark Melancon On Disabled List, Select Gregor Blanco

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2:55pm: Melancon spoke to reporters about his injury today and described the pain he’s feeling as similar to the pain he felt last season when a pronator strain limited him to 30 innings (Twitter link via Kerry Crowley of the San Jose Mercury News). More troubling is the fact that the right-hander revealed he cannot throw from more than 30 feet without experiencing pain.

Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area tweets that Melancon said he felt pain all spring when pitching, but the discomfort increased substantially when he attempted to pitch on consecutive days. He’ll see a specialist when the Giants are in Los Angeles.

11:11am: The Giants announced that they’ve placed Mark Melancon on the 10-day disabled list, retroactive to March 26, with a flexor strain in his right elbow. San Francisco also placed Rule 5 pick Julian Fernandez on the 60-day DL to open the season, clearing a 40-man spot to select the contract of outfielder Gregor Blanco, who’ll officially return for another stint with the Giants. With Melancon on the shelf, the Giants will likely look to Sam Dyson and Hunter Strickland as potential ninth-inning options.

It’s not yet clear how long Melancon will be sidelined, though he missed a significant portion of the 2017 season — his first with the Giants after signing a then-record four-year, $62MM contract — due to a pronator strain in his right forearm. Melancon posted a 4.50 ERA in just 30 innings with the Giants last season, though his peripheral numbers were considerably better, and fielding-independent metrics were far more bullish than his more rudimentary ERA (3.22 FIP, 3.24 SIERA).

Blanco, 34, was a mainstay with the Giants from 2012-16 before jumping to the D-backs last offseason. He impressed with a .303/.405/.576 slash in 43 plate appearances this spring, but he’s struggled to a .234/.323/.333 batting line across the past two big league campaigns. He’ll give manager Bruce Bochy some depth across the board in the outfield and a potential left-handed complement to Austin Jackson, Hunter Pence and/or Andrew McCutchen when needed.

Blanco’s addition to the roster means the Giants prospect Steven Duggar will open the season in the minors, though the organization hopes that Duggar will force his way into the mix later this season and hold down a long-term spot in the outfield.

Latest On Giants’ Pitching Injuries

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The injury bug has continued to attack Giants pitching, as manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including NBCSports.com’s Alex Pavlovic and Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group) that right-hander Julian Fernandez has suffered a UCL sprain and is headed to the disabled list.  Furthermore, closer Mark Melancon’s availability for Opening Day could be in question, as his arm is still bothering him after making back-to-back appearances last Thursday and Friday.

Fernandez was selected out of the Rockies’ farm system in last December’s Rule 5 Draft, and would’ve had to remain on San Francisco’s 25-man roster all season or else be offered back to Colorado.  Placing Fernandez on the DL would keep him in the Giants organization for now, though the larger concern is the 22-year-old’s health status.  The timeline for such UCL injuries vary greatly due to the severity of the sprain, though Fernandez will likely be sidelined for at least a few months.

If Fernandez did require Tommy John surgery, that procedure would have an interesting big-picture impact on the Giants.  As The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly observes, Fernandez would be placed on the Major League disabled list and clock a year of service time while recovering from a TJ procedure, and he would also earn the $545K minimum salary.  Even that small payroll addition would be an added stress for a Giants team that has very little space under the $197MM luxury tax threshold, after the team made a point this offseason of somewhat limiting its spending to get under the threshold and reset its tax overage counter.  That $545K would be an expense that the Giants weren’t planning to make at all for Fernandez, as he struggled (13.50 ERA) over 7 1/3 spring innings and potentially could’ve been considered not worthy of a 25-man spot.

Melancon’s back-to-back outings marked the first time he’d pitched in consecutive days this spring, as the veteran reliever continues his recovery from forearm surgery last September.  Needless to say, any further soreness is a red flag for both he and the team, though Bochy said that Melancon’s roster status wouldn’t be determined until after he tests his arm further by playing catch over the next day or two.  Melancon has been bothered by some arm fatigue throughout camp and pitched in just five games throughout Spring Training as the team tried to bring him along slowly.

The closer is trying to rebound after a disappointing and injury-marred first season in San Francisco that saw him post a 4.50 ERA over 30 innings.  If Melancon does go on the disabled list, the Giants could turn to setup men Hunter Strickland or Tony Watson for save situations, or potentially again use Sam Dyson as closer as they did in 2017.  Dyson, however, has struggled through a very rough spring.

It has already been a brutal spring health-wise for the Giants, with Madison Bumgarner (fractured finger) and Jeff Samardzija (strained pec) both going down with injuries that have badly stretched the team’s pitching depth.  GM Bobby Evans told Baggarly and other reporters that “I anticipate we will remain internal” in regards to finding replacements, though Evans is open to the idea of potentially adding new pitchers.

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