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Reactions To The Passing Of Yordano Ventura And Andy Marte

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This morning, Royals starting pitcher Yordano Ventura and former big-league infielder Andy Marte died in separate car crashes in the Dominican Republic. Here are a few of the many reactions to and reflections on today’s tragic events.

  • MLB commissioner Rob Manfred issued a statement about Ventura and Marte earlier today. “Today is a very sad day for our entire game and particularly for the many loyal fans in the Dominican Republic, the home of both Yordano Ventura and Andy Marte,” said Manfred. “Yordano was a key figure in the Royals’ recent success. His electric talent on the mound helped lead the Royals to two American League pennants and the 2015 World Championship. Andy was a respected member of six organizations who played seven Major League seasons, including for the Cleveland Indians from 2006-2010.  On behalf of Major League Baseball, I extend my deepest condolences to the families, teammates, friends and fans of both players.”
  • This morning was perhaps even more difficult than expected for Royals GM Dayton Moore, as Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports relate (Twitter links). Moore first heard about Marte’s death, then received a call about Ventura and thought it was a mistake. Moore and Royals assistant GM Rene Francisco were close with both players — Moore and Francisco were both in the Braves organization when Marte was a top prospect there.
  • Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star offers a beautifully written remembrance of Ventura, who he describes as a fighter with sharp edges but a good person and prodigious talent. “[H]e was relentless and unapologetic and desperate to be great — both for himself, and for everyone back home for whom it meant almost as much,” Mellinger writes. “His teammates and coaches might occasionally grow frustrated at some of the rougher moments, but they saw a good soul, a big heart, and an earnest learner.”
  • Rosenthal offers similar sentiments in a column for FOX Sports, noting that Ventura’s sometimes rough on-field demeanor was not all of who he was. “The Yo that I knew had the warmest of smiles, the most engaging of personalities, a genuine, effusive love for the game,” writes Rosenthal. “[H]e was a diligent worker, one of the Royals’ most regimented pitchers — a kid who was engaged between starts, watched film, worked on pitches, looked and acted the part.”
  • Ventura has “always had a zest for life, an innocence about the game, a freshness, a fearlessness,” says Moore, via Dodd. “And he’s been really the same guy from day one, as far as his character traits and what made him special. He’s just a really passionate human. He loved to compete. He no doubt challenged us. But that made us better.” Dodd adds that police will take three weeks to complete a toxicology report, but there was no sign of alcohol at the scene of Ventura’s crash. The pitcher was not wearing his seat belt and lost control of his vehicle while driving through dense fog on a mountainous road.
  • Ventura was the opposing starting pitcher in Marte’s last Major League game in 2014, MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince notes. In contrast to the fiery Ventura, Marte (formerly one of the top prospects in the game) was “an easygoing guy” who took his career disappointments in stride. Marte never could stick in the big leagues after coming up as a top prospect with the Braves and Indians (and, for a month, the Red Sox), and after stops in the Pirates, Angels and Diamondbacks organizations, he finally excelled in Korea, where he totaled 44 home runs with the KT Wiz between the 2015 and 2016 seasons. “The only thing I know how to do is play baseball,” he told Castrovince. “That’s why I didn’t stop.”

Royals Extend Danny Duffy

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The Royals have a number of key players hitting the open market next winter, but left-hander Danny Duffy will no longer be among them. The Royals announced on Monday that they’ve signed Duffy to a five-year deal that runs through the 2021 season and will reportedly guarantee him $65MM. The contract doesn’t afford Duffy, an ACES client, any sort of no-trade protection and doesn’t contain any options. Duffy will reportedly take home $5MM in 2017, $14MM in 2018, $15.25MM in 2019-20, and $15.5MM in 2021.

Danny Duffy

Duffy’s new contract will buy out four free agent years and keep him in Kansas City through his age-32 season (assuming he isn’t traded down the line, of course). He had filed for an $8MM salary in arbitration, while the team countered at $7.25MM. Using the $7.625MM midpoint between those two figures as a presumptive would-be salary for the upcoming campaign, Duffy sold off four free-agent years for a total of $57.375MM.

[Related: Updated Kansas City Royals Payroll Information]

Certainly, that’s an appealing payday for a player that had previously earned less than $8MM in his career. While Duffy could have taken aim at a massive payday next winter with further improvement in 2017, waiting an additional year would also have come with the risk of injury or a decline in performance. Either of those scenarios would have severely hampered his free-agent stock and made that $57.375MM figure unattainable over the next four seasons.

This contract effectively pays him at an Ervin Santana level for his first four free-agent years, and while some will opine that he could’ve done better with another strong year, that type of trade-off is the nature of nearly every extension. And, in Duffy’s case, it seemed as if his strong preference was always to remain in Kansas City. When the two sides first began talking about a long-term pact back in November, Duffy wasn’t shy about his feelings. “I want to stay with the Royals long term,” he told MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan. “One hundred percent. For sure.”

The extension for Duffy, who turned 28 in December, comes on the heels of a breakout season that saw the former third-round pick and top prospect pitch to a 3.51 ERA in a career-high 179 1/3 innings. Duffy averaged 9.4 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 to go along with a 36.4 percent ground-ball rate and a fastball that averaged a robust 94.8 mph.

That type of upside has long been in the cards for Duffy, who rated among the game’s Top 100 prospects per both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus prior to the 2011 season. Duffy debuted that season at the age of 21 and struggled considerably (5.64 ERA in 105 innings), but he looked to be on his way to an improved sophomore campaign in 2012 after turning in a 3.90 ERA through six starts. Those six games would be the only contests in which he’d pitch that year, though, as Duffy underwent Tommy John surgery that summer and didn’t return to a big league mound until Aug. 2013. Since that time, he’s seen action in both the bullpen and the rotation, but his excellent work in 2016 and this new contract should ensure that he’ll be in the team’s starting mix for years to come.

Joining Duffy in the rotation in 2017 will be Yordano Ventura, Jason Vargas, Ian Kennedy and one of Matt Strahm, Nate Karns, Chris Young or Mike Minor. Of that bunch, Ventura also represents a long-term option, as he’s controlled through 2021. Kennedy, too, could stick around for several more years, though he has the opportunity to opt out of the final three years of his contract following the 2017 campaign. Young and Minor are both free agents this coming winter, while Strahm has less than a year of service time and is controllable through the 2022 season.

Entering the offseason, Duffy was one of many Royals that was set to hit free agency following the 2017 season. That fate is still on the horizon for the likes of Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar, while others such as Wade Davis and Jarrod Dyson have already been traded (for Jorge Soler and Karns, respectively). By trading Davis and Dyson for a pair of cheaper Major League assets and also agreeing to an extension with Duffy that will pay him less in 2017 than he’d have earned on a one-year deal in arbitration, GM Dayton Moore has succeeded in lowering his 2017 payroll without completely stripping down the core of a potential contender. The Indians remain the on-paper favorite to capture the AL Central title in 2017, but keeping Duffy in the fold for several years to come will help Kansas City remain competitive even as the team transitions to a new core of players.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports first reported the agreement and the terms (via Twitter). FanRag’s Jon Heyman added that the deal does not have a no-trade clause or any sort of option (Twitter link). Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star reported the annual breakdown of the deal (via Twitter).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2017 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

After a busy day of dealmaking, 152 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 36 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint.

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining — those where the player files for at least $4.5MM — in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:

Royals Avoid Arbitration With Eric Hosmer

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The Royals have avoided arbitration with first baseman Eric Hosmer by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $12.25MM, reports MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (on Twitter). The Scott Boras client is entering his final season of team control and will be a free agent following the 2017 campaign. He’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $13.3MM in 2017.

Greg Holland Seeks Two-Year Deal With Opt-Out

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Free-agent righty Greg Holland is arguably the highest-upside reliever left on the open market, and Jon Heyman of Fan Rag provides some notable updates on his situation. The 31-year-old is in a somewhat unusual spot as a free agent, in that he brings a sparkling track record but is also seeking to return from a long layoff due to Tommy John surgery.

Given his health situation and also the evident interest around the league, Holland seeks a two-year deal that would allow him to opt out after the first season, according to Heyman. That’s the same structure that Brian Wilson landed with the Dodgers before the 2014 season, though he had made it back to the hill late in the prior campaign.

In Holland’s case, there’s perhaps greater uncertainty, but also greater upside. He took a step back in his most recent action, in 2015, but that may well have been due to the elbow issues that led to his surgery. Over the prior four campaigns, Holland was one of the game’s very best relievers, as he compiled 256 1/3 innings of 1.86 ERA pitching with 12.6 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9.

There’s interest in Holland’s proposed two-year arrangement, per the report. Among the teams still pursuing him are the Dodgers, Nationals, Rockies, Brewers, Reds, and Rays. While the Cubs showed prior interest, it’s not clear whether they are still in. And the Royals have also indicated a desire to bring back their former closer, though it seems that the team’s payroll situation may not allow for a competitive bid.

That group of organizations would presumably offer Holland a variety of possible roles. The Nationals, Rockies, Brewers, Reds, and Royals (if they’re involved) could all promise him first dibs on closing roles, while the Dodgers and perhaps the Cubs are more likely to view the veteran as a setup man. Tampa Bay, perhaps, might be most interested in the event that it strikes a deal for incumbent closer Alex Colome. Whether and to what extent the chance to take hold of the ninth is an important factor in Holland’s decisionmaking is not immediately clear.

Royals Looking For Free Agent Bargains

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Free agent slugger Brandon Moss “has been linked to the Orioles,” writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The 33-year-old possesses plenty of experience in the corner outfield – where general manager Dan Duquette is still looking for help even after acquiring Seth Smith on Friday – and could fit as a designated hitter in Baltimore. While re-signing Mark Trumbo would help fill those vacancies, Duquette didn’t sound optimistic about that Sunday. Moss should cost far less than Trumbo, largely because the former is coming off back-to-back mediocre seasons. As a member of the Cardinals last year, Moss swatted an impressive 28 home runs, but he nevertheless posted an unspectacular .225/.300/.484 line in 464 plate appearances. The lefty-swinger would at least add more power and variety to a mostly right-handed lineup, however.

More notes on the free agent market:

  • Right-hander Dillon Gee received medical clearance Thursday after undergoing surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in October, according to Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (Twitter links). Gee, who should be ready for spring training, has garnered interest from multiple teams, per Cotillo (the Marlins contacted him earlier this offseason). The 30-year-old has been on the open market since November, when he cleared outright waivers and elected free agency. Gee spent 2016 in Kansas City, where he recorded a 4.68 ERA, 6.41 K/9 and 2.66 BB/9 in 125 innings and 33 appearances (14 starts).
  • Speaking of the Royals, the budget-conscious club will continue to monitor the market for potential bargains as the spring approaches, GM Dayton Moore told Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star. “When the music stops, there’s always going to be a few guys without chairs,” Moore said. “And unfortunately, for those players, the options dwindle. For the clubs that stay aggressive and keep their pulse on everything, you can get some potential deals.” The Royals spent on several free agents – including Edinson Volquez, Kendrys Morales, Alex Gordon, Ian Kennedy and Joakim Soria – over the previous couple winters, but they’ve taken a much less aggressive approach this offseason. So far, backup catcher Drew Butera is the only free agent Kansas City has given a major league deal.

Royals Rumors: Plouffe, Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain

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  • Speaking of the Braves and Royals, they are interested in free agent third baseman/first baseman Trevor Plouffe, who has been available since the Twins outrighted him in November. Boston and Oakland are also in on the 30-year-old Plouffe, a steady contributor from 2014-15 who batted an underwhelming .260/.303/.420 with 12 homers in 344 PAs last season. Like Hill, Plouffe has had more success versus lefties (.268/.344/.465) than righties (.239/.294/.403) during his career.
  • To finish off a Royals-heavy set of notes, it’s still possible they’ll trade one of Moustakas, first baseman Eric Hosmer or outfielder Lorenzo Cain – all contract-year players – before the season, per Cafardo. A willingness to deal Moustakas or Hosmer, particularly the former, would somewhat explain Kansas City’s interest in Hill and Plouffe. FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal previouly reported that Hosmer is unlikely to go anywhere prior to the season, though, and KC already subtracted a key outfielder Friday when it shipped Jarrod Dyson to Seattle. Speculatively, that could impact whether the Royals would also part with Cain, who’s due $11MM next season.

    [SOURCE LINK]

Arbitration Breakdown: Todd Frazier & Eric Hosmer

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Two corner infielders, Todd Frazier and Eric Hosmer, enter arbitration this offseason after completing two-year deals that paid them each $8.25MM in the latter year (including a prorated portion of Frazier’s signing bonus). Both had solid years as power hitters, and my model projects each to receive a raise of $5.25MM for Frazier and $5.05MM for Hosmer, to $13.5MM and $13.3MM, respectively).

Only ten position players in the past decade have received additional single-year salaries through arbitration after receiving multi-year deals earlier in their eligibility. Most of these players had poor seasons, and only five of these ten have met these criteria since 2009.

As a result, it’s difficult to find good comparables for the situations in which Frazier and Hosmer find themselves. Perhaps the best match would be Prince Fielder, who received a $4MM raise in 2011 after a solid season in which he batted .261 with 32 homers and 83 RBIs. Frazier actually had more home runs last season but a worse average, posting a .225/40/98 line with 15 steals, while Hosmer was very similar at .266/25/104.

It’s rare for six-year old cases to be used in arbitration hearings, so Fielder is probably not a great match. However, applying some salary inflation to his $4MM raise suggests the model’s projections for Frazier and Hosmer are probably somewhat reasonable.

We can also check if players going to arbitration following multi-year deals fare better or worse than players who have been going year to year, and the evidence here suggests looking for regular comparables among the year-to-year group is reasonable. The average raise for the ten players coming off multi-year deals was $1.6MM, compared to projected earnings of $1.5MM. This difference is not significant enough to worry about a systematic bias. Therefore, looking for comparables in the year-to-year group makes sense to pin things down more precisely.

Of course, it is rare for power hitters to go year to year at all, so few players emerge as possibilities. No one in the last three years has entered their third or fourth year of arbitration eligibility coming off a platform year with 20 home runs and 90 runs batted in. A couple players did so in 2013, including Chase Headley, who received a $5.1MM raise after a .286/31/115 campaign with 17 steals. Hunter Pence only got a $3.4MM raise after his .253/24/104 campaign the year prior. Pence could prove a reasonable comparable for Hosmer’s .266/25/104, which suggests Hosmer’s $5.05MM projected raise is probably high. However, Headley clearly did not do all that much better than Hosmer in his platform year, and both cases are old, so it remains possible that Headley is the better comparable and a $5MM raise is reasonable.

Frazier’s case is tricky in that no one in the last decade has entered their third or fourth year of arbitration eligibility with a batting average below .260 and at least 30 home runs. Although Frazier’s batting average was much poorer, I have found that batting average is a somewhat less important criteria than ran home run totals in arbitration, so I believe Frazier’s case is strong. I think Headley’s 60 points of batting average probably roughly offset the nine fewer home runs, and a $5MM raise or slightly higher does seem more believable for Frazier.

Three players in the last decade have gotten $5MM raises as part of multi-year deals—Jose Bautista, Carlos Pena, and Matt Kemp. However, none of them are great comparables, since they all had much better numbers than either Frazier and Hosmer. Additionally, multi-year deals are generally not used in arbitration hearings, although they may be in these instances where comparables are tough to find.

Ultimately, I think both Frazier and Hosmer have good cases to top Fielder’s $4MM raise and either could make a case for being near Headley’s $5.1MM raise. I suspect Hosmer may fall short of his projected $5.05MM raise, and get somewhere closer to $4.5MM—which would put him around $12.75MM. Frazier’s 40 home runs allow for more upside, and his $5.25MM projected raise to $13.5MM seems like a reasonable estimate.

Royals Sign Chris Withrow, Al Alburquerque, Brandon League To Minor League Deals

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The Royals have signed veteran righties Chris Withrow, Al Alburquerque and Brandon League to minor league deals with Spring Training invites, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com writes (Twitter links). Flanagan also notes the minor league signings of pitchers Bobby Parnell and Jonathan Sanchez, which had been previously reported; those two will combine with Withrow, Albuquerque and League to form a long list of formerly effective veterans who could compete for spots on the Royals’ pitching staff.

The 27-year-old Withrow was formerly a first-round pick of the Dodgers. After heading to Atlanta in a six-player deal involving Juan Uribe and Alberto Callaspo, Withrow spent 2016 with the Braves, where he posted a 3.58 ERA and an average fastball velocity approaching the mid-90s, but with an underwhelming 6.7 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 37 2/3 innings. He ended last season with over three years of service time after spending 2015 on the shelf recovering from Tommy John surgery, and the Braves non-tendered him last month.

Alburquerque spent the 2016 season in the Angels and Mariners organizations, appearing briefly in the big leagues with the Angels and posting a 3.74 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in 33 2/3 innings in the minors. The formerly hard-throwing Tigers reliever has seen his velocity dip to the low 90s in recent seasons. It’s possible some of that velocity drop might have some connection to his contraction of the Chikungunya virus in 2015, however, and the 30-year-old has proven to be an effective, if control-challenged, big-league reliever in the past.

League has not pitched since 2015, or in the big leagues since 2014, after struggling with shoulder trouble. The 33-year-old formerly served as a closer for the Mariners and Dodgers, but the Dodgers released him before the expiration of his three-year, $22.5MM contract with them. He has a 3.65 ERA, 6.3 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in parts of 11 seasons with the big leagues.

Mariners Acquire Jarrod Dyson From Royals For Nate Karns

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The Mariners have moved swiftly on a second trade of the day, officially adding outfielder Jarrod Dyson from the Royals in exchange for righty Nate Karns, as Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune first reported (via Twitter). The speedy Dyson will take the place in the Seattle outfield just vacated by Seth Smith, while Karns will presumably enter the rotation mix for Kansas City.

For Seattle, this swap plainly functions in concert with the Smith deal, which brought in starter Yovani Gallardo. Evidently, the M’s prefer the combination of the veteran Gallardo and Dyson to the team’s preexisting assets. GM Jerry Dipoto cited Dyson’s “elite level defense and base running” as the motivating factors for his addition (via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, on Twitter).

While the earlier swap involved a pair of short-term veterans (though Gallardo does come with an option), the Mariners sacrificed some control with this move. Dyson, 32, is entering his final year of team control, though he’s still plenty affordable with a projected $2.5MM arbitration salary. The 29-year-old Karns, meanwhile, is still controllable through 2020 as a 2+ service-class player.

[RELATED: Updated Mariners & Royals Depth Charts]

Though Dyson, like Smith, hits from the left side, they are otherwise quite different players. Dyson isn’t quite as adept with the bat in hand as is Smith. He has never finished a year with even an average batting line. Last year, though, was his best yet in the majors, as he hit .278/.340/.388 over 337 plate appearances. Though he hit well in very limited duty against southpaws last year, Dyson has generally struggled without the platoon advantage, limiting his ability to play as a regular.

Jul 20, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals base runner Jarrod Dyson (1) runs to third base against the Cleveland Indians during the eighth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA Today Sports

Unlike the lumbering Smith, Dyson earns his keep on the basepaths and in the field. On a rate basis, Dyson is perhaps the game’s most valuable overall baserunner. Despite just 1,091 plate appearances over the past four years, he has accumulated the sixth-highest total BsR score from Fangraphs (23.2); for reference, Billy Hamilton comfortably paces the league with 36.6 BsR, though he has taken nearly 50% more trips to the plate. Dyson is also a consistent threat to run, having tallied 176 total steals in his seven full or partial major-league seasons.

Dyson is equally impressive with the glove. In that same four-year span, he’s 13th in the game in total defensive value (by Fangraphs’ UZR-based measure). Again, that compares favorably to the game’s very best fielder, Andrelton Simmons, who has nearly hit the century mark in defensive runs since 2013 but has over twice Dyson’s trips to the plate. Though Leonys Martin, another left-handed hitter, could conceivably hold onto his job as the regular in center, Dyson is obviously capable of playing there as well. That’s not to say that Dyson can’t impact the game from a corner spot, if that’s where he ends up; Seattle certainly now has plenty of options with a defensive unit laden with quality fielders.

Still, it could end up being a hefty price to pay if Karns can harness his evident talent. Last year, he compiled only a 5.15 ERA over 94 1/3 innings, which he compiled over 15 starts and seven relief appearances. But even as he struggled with his command (4.3 BB/9) Karns managed to strike out more than a hitter per inning. And he was a highly productive, MLB starter as recently as 2015, when he gave the Rays 147 frames of 3.67 ERA ball with 8.9 K/9 against a more palatable 3.4 BB/9.

Jun 4, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Nathan Karns (13) delivers a pitch in the second inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

Karns’s struggles in 2016 may be attributed at least in part to some misfortune, as he allowed a slightly elevated .327 BABIP and ended up with a rather low 69.0% strand rate. He also managed to show a return to the 93 mph average range with his fastball after dropping a bit in the prior year. And despite the increased walks, Karns actually worked in the zone more than ever before (48.8%) while increasing his swinging-strike rate to a personal-best 10.9%.

There are some areas of concern, though. Karns spent a lengthy stretch on the DL with a back strain, though he did nearly return to action late in the season. And he had shoulder surgery earlier in his career, which delayed his advancement to the majors. For what it’s worth, this is also the third time he has been traded since 2014. (He was originally shipped from the Nationals to the Rays that spring, in exchange for Jose Lobaton, Felipe Rivero, and Drew Vettleson, and later moved to the Mariners in the fall of 2015 in in a six-player swap.)

It’s not immediately clear what role Karns will play in Kansas City, but he ought to at least have a chance to compete for a starting job in camp. Other options for the back of the rotation include Jason Vargas, Chris Young, Matt Strahm, Mike Minor, and Alec Mills. If he isn’t immediately utilized as a starter, it’s possible that K.C. could look to find out whether Karns’s stuff might play up in a full-time relief capacity. He also can still be optioned for one more season, so it’s possible he could end up opening the year at Triple-A.

Parting with Dyson also opens up the outfield competition for the Royals, who otherwise likely would have used him in a platoon of some kind. But his importance to the organization was lessened by the acquisition of Jorge Soler, who the club will hope is capable of playing regularly alongside Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain. Other players in the outfield mix include Paulo Orlando, Whit Merrifield, Billy Burns, and perhaps prospects Hunter Dozier, Bubba Starling, and Jorge Bonifacio. While only Gordon and Burns hit from the left side (the latter as a switch-hitter), there are obviously plenty of options on hand.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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