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Arbitration Eligibles: Kansas City Royals

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The Royals are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

In Wood and Paulino, the Royals have a pair of promising pitchers who endured Tommy John surgery this year.  Both are worth retaining (Wood seems likely to garner Super Two status).  Despite a myriad of injuries, Getz worked his way into a starting role for the Royals at second base toward the end of his season.  I expect the team to keep him in the mix.

Hochevar, drafted first overall in 2006, has a 5.39 ERA through 771 big league innings, including a 5.73 mark this year.  If you're digging for a silver lining, the 29-year-old throws relatively hard, takes the ball every fifth day, and has exhibited skills suggesting an ERA closer to 4.20.  Given Hochevar's maddening flashes of brilliance, it seems the Royals are up for another go-round at our estimated $4.4MM salary.

The offensive promise once shown by Pena seems long gone.  Still, the 30-year-old Cuban wants to retire a Royal, and it won't require much of a raise to keep him around as Salvador Perez's backup for 2013.  Assuming everyone is retained in the Royals' group, we're projecting $10MM in salary for five arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Royals Rumors: Payroll, Sanchez, Lohse, Trades

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Royals owner David Glass recently said that the team is "committed to improving (their) starting pitching" while also indicating a willingness to operate at a financial loss to be competitive. Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star has the latest on the team…

  • “Our market is what it is,” said GM Dayton Moore. “We’re not going to have a payroll of $100MM. We know that going into it. We embrace who we are … We’ve got to stay consistent with our approach. We’re not going get crazy and go nuts in free agency.”
  • There are indications that the Royals have Anibal Sanchez and Kyle Lohse at the top of their free agent target list. Bringing Zack Greinke back for a second tour of duty is unlikely.
  • The team's list of secondary pitching targets is believed to include Ryan Dempster, Hiroki Kuroda, Shaun Marcum, Carlos Villanueva, and Carlos Zambrano. They will also monitor pitchers who could have club options declined, like Dan Haren and Ervin Santana.
  • “Absolutely … I think any pitcher would be fortunate to pitch here," said right-hander Jeremy Guthrie, an impending free agent the team would like to retain. They are unwilling to go beyond a two-year deal, however.
  • Moore acknowledged that there is a chance of working out a new contract with Guthrie during the exclusive negotiating window prior to free agency.
  • “I wouldn’t say anybody is untouchable,” said Moore with regards to potential trade talks. “You go into any discussion with an open mind. That being said, there are certain positions on the diamond that are very difficult to replace …  You don’t want to compromise in one area just to get strong in another area.”
  • Dutton estimates that the Royals could have $20-23MM to spend this winter while keeping the current roster intact.

Minor Moves: 28 Players Elect Free Agency

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A total of 28 players — all with big league time under their belts — recently elected free agency after finishing the year in Triple-A. Here is the full list, courtesy of the International League and Pacific Coast League transaction pages…

Royals Expected To Buy Out Soria, Explore New Deal

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The Royals are expected to decline their $8MM team option on Joakim Soria for the 2013 season and instead buy the closer out for $750K, reports Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star.  Despite the buyout, the Royals are interested in bringing Soria back and "both sides have expressed interest in working out a new deal."

Soria has just begun throwing for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery in March, the second time that he has undergone the procedure in his career.  The right-hander was looking to rebound after a somewhat disappointing 2011 season by his standards, posting a 4.03 ERA with career-worsts in H/9 (9.0) and HR/9 (1.0) over 60 1/3 innings.  The Royals also held an $8.75MM club option on Soria for the 2014 season.

A new contract with Soria would be the best-case scenario for Kansas City, as while Soria is still too valuable a commodity to let walk for nothing, $8MM is a large chunk of payroll to tie up in a closer coming off a second Tommy John surgery.  Any deal that Soria signs this winter will be short-term and modestly-priced given his injury history, though Soria's track record would definitely earn him a lot of interest if he reaches free agency.

Minor Moves: Juan Gutierrez

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We'll keep track of any minor transactions throughout the day right here…

  • The Royals have re-signed Juan Gutierrez according to Baseball America's Matt Eddy. The 29-year-old right-hander pitched to a 4.79 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 167 1/3 innings with the Diamondbacks from 2007-2011 while briefly serving as their closer. Gutierrez posted a 10.45 ERA in 20 2/3 minor league innings this year while battling injury. Kansas City originally signed him last December.

Also, rank the free agent catchers below from 1 to 12.

Click here to view the survey results.

Royals To Seek Rotation Help

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Royals owner David Glass wants his team’s starting rotation to improve in 2013, and he’s prepared to spend if that’s what it takes to upgrade the Kansas City pitching staff. Glass told Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star that the starting rotation will get better in 2013.

“What I’ve always said is when we get to the point where we’re competitive,” Glass said, “we’ll do what we have to do to improve our position. Yes, we’ll do what we need to do. We are committed to improving our starting pitching.

Glass said the Royals will contend if they can upgrade their rotation. The bullpen and position players “stack it up against anybody” in the American League Central in Glass’ estimation. The owner indicated a willingness to operate at a loss from a financial standpoint if necessary.

Royals starters have combined for a 4.98 ERA (26th in MLB) in 833 2/3 innings (28th in MLB). Jeremy Guthrie hits free agency this offseason, but Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Luis Mendoza, Will Smith, Felipe Paulino, Danny Duffy and Jake Odorizzi are among Kansas City's internal options for 2013. Glass has yet to create a list off offseason targets with general manager Dayton Moore, Dutton reports.

Olney On Price, Andrus, Leyland

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Some talent evaluators believe Rays left-hander David Price could be traded this winter, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports. Here’s the latest from Olney, who runs down potential suitors for Price in his latest column…

  • Price’s trade value will never be higher than it will be this winter, Olney writes. However, the left-hander’s salary will rise considerably from $4.35MM following his Cy Young-caliber 2012 season. This means the budget-conscious Rays will probably decide to part with Price at some point between now and when he hits free agency after the 2015 season. “There will be a day when the Rays trade him,” Olney writes. 
  • Tampa Bay could seek up-the-middle players for Price, who has extraordinary trade value as a controllable top-of-the-rotation left-hander.
  • There’s a wide expectation that the Rangers will trade Elvis Andrus this winter. But Andrus isn’t a great fit for the Rays given his salary and service time, so they’d presumably ask about shortstop prospect Jurickson Profar in talks for Price.
  • It’s hard to imagine the Royals obtaining Price from the Rays without giving up Wil Myers, Salvador Perez, Mike Moustakas or Eric Hosmer, Olney writes.
  • Though the Tigers aren’t a strong defensive team their pitchers haven’t complained publicly about the glovework behind them. Olney credits Detroit’s player and manager Jim Leyland for this display of support.

Non-Tender Candidate: Luke Hochevar

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The next strikeout Luke Hochevar records will set a new career-high for the right-hander, but that's one of few positives to take away from an otherwise disappointing season. The 29-year-old has pitched to a 5.46 ERA despite reasonable peripheral stats such as his 6.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and 43.6 percent ground-ball rate. All of those are pretty close to the numbers Hochevar has posted to date in his career: a 5.33 ERA, 6.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and 47.9 percent ground-ball rate. Suffice it to say, that's not quite what the Royals were hoping for when they selected Hochevar first overall in the 2006 draft. Hochevar

The University of Tennessee product has spent his entire career with the Royals after refusing to sign with the Dodgers when they selected him in both 2002 and 2005. He appeared on Baseball America's list of Top 100 prospects prior to both the 2007 and 2008 seasons, but that pedigree never manifested at the Major League level.

Hochevar avoided arbitration with the Royals last winter, agreeing to a one-year deal that guaranteed him $3.51MM. At the time, he was coming off a 198-inning season in which he posted a 3.52 ERA in the season's second half. That won't be the case this upcoming offseason, but he's still on pace to rattle off roughly 180 innings. That durability will lead to another raise for Hochevar through arbitration, which could push his salary north of $5MM.

As Rany Jazayerli recently pointed out, Hochevar has the fifth-worst ERA and sixth-worst ERA+ of any starting pitcher to ever exceed 120 starts at the Major League level. Given the 752-inning sample size of subpar performance, it seems likely that even a pitching-starved organization like the Royals could move on from Hochevar and seek alternative rotation options. In the event that he's non-tendered, Hochevar would likely be in line for a one-year deal with a low base salary and some performance-based incentives from his new club.

Photo courtesy of U.S. Presswire.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jeremy Guthrie

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Before Jeremy Guthrie was traded to the Royals, he was in the midst of a career-worst season and appeared to be headed for a minor league contract in free agency. Since the Royals acquired Guthrie for Jonathan Sanchez on July 20th, the right-hander has pitched effectively, returning to his career norms. The turnaround should assure him of a guaranteed contract as a free agent this offseason and a multiyear deal remains possible.

Jeremy Guthrie - Royals (PW)

Coors Field was not a particularly welcoming home to Guthrie this year. Opponents posted a Bonds-esque .368/.415/.720 batting line against him in Denver’s thin air. Overall, Guthrie posted a 6.35 ERA with 4.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 90 2/3 innings for the Rockies. He allowed 12 hits and two home runs per nine innings. Not surprisingly, he lost his rotation spot and, eventually, his place on the team.

Credit Royals general manager Dayton Moore for looking past those numbers. Since Guthrie has joined the Royals he has a 3.13 ERA with 5.8 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 72 innings over the course of 11 starts. He’s generating more swings and misses with Kansas City (7.7% swinging strike rate) and averaging 93mph with his fastball.

Guthrie should appeal to the Royals when he hits free agency this offseason, as Kansas City could use more starting pitching. Moore has said that the club will "probably" wait until after the season to explore contract talks with Guthrie

Guthrie’s representatives at CAA Sports figure to look for a multiyear contract in free agency and it sounds as though some longtime Royals observers aren’t opposed to the possibility. Rany Jazayerli has suggested a two year, $15MM contract could work for both sides. Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star has suggested a two year, $18MM contract with a club option. 

A multiyear deal is certainly possible for the 33-year-old Guthrie. But in some ways he reminds me of Joe Saunders, who was selected ten spots before Guthrie in the first round of the 2002 draft. Both are innings eaters who limit walks, don’t induce many strikeouts and allow lots of hits. The combination generally leads to substantial salaries through arbitration, but it doesn’t do as well in free agency. Saunders, for example, signed a one-year, $6MM contract with Arizona last offseason. I expect Guthrie to sign a contract in that range following his up and down 2012 campaign.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Quick Hits: Berkman, Nationals, Royals, Pagan

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The Orioles drew first blood in their big four-game series with the Yankees, slugging six homers en route to a 10-6 victory.  Mark Reynolds hit two home runs, and has now enjoyed three multi-homer games against New York within the span of a week.  Baltimore is now tied with the Yankees atop the AL East.

Here's some news from around baseball…

  • If Lance Berkman retires, he tells Mark Berman of FOX 26 Sports Houston that he intends to finish his degree at Rice and be an assistant coach for the school's baseball team.  Berkman said he is still leaning towards retirement but is focused on the Cardinals right now and will save a final decision under the offseason.
  • Between Bryce Harper's play in center field and new leadoff hitter Jayson Werth's performance (a 1.014 OPS in 14 games as the leadoff man entering tonight's action), Amanda Comak of the Washington Times wonders if the Nationals may not need to focus on these long-time problems areas this offseason. 
  • The Royals should re-sign Jeremy Guthrie to a two-year, $15MM contract and non-tender Luke Hochevar, opines Rany Jazayerli of Rany On The Royals.  Jazayerli believes Guthrie would pitch well in the AL Central while Hochevar hasn't been able to translate his decent advanced metrics into on-the-field success.
  • Fangraphs' Dave Cameron cites Angel Pagan as "the most underrated player in baseball."  Pagan has a .284/.336/.430 line with eight homers, 78 runs scored and 23 steals for the Giants this season.  He is also a free agent this winter, and compares well with bigger-name free agent center fielders like Michael Bourn or B.J. Upton.
  • Players and owners aren't close to a decision about limiting September roster sizes, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  We heard earlier this week that MLB was looking to change the rules for next season, but Rosenthal reports that since different teams deal with the September rosters in different ways, some clubs aren't willing to commit to the players' demands for minimum number of active roster spots for each game.
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