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Royals, Dan Altavilla Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Royals and right-hander Dan Altavilla are in agreement on a minor league deal with an invite to major league Spring Training, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The righty is a client of the MAS Agency.

Altavilla, 31, is coming off three mostly lost seasons due to June 2021 Tommy John surgery. He later signed a two-year minor league deal with the Red Sox, with that club realizing Altavilla likely wouldn’t contribute much or anything at all in 2022. He returned to the mound in July of 2023, making four appearances in the Complex League and another four in High-A. In his 12 innings pitched, he allowed four earned runs, walked five opponents and struck out seven. The Sox released him in August.

He didn’t sign with another affiliated club as the season was winding down but did go to the Dominican Republic for winter ball. He’s made 10 appearances for Tigres del Licey, with nine strikeouts, three walks and two earned runs allowed. Heyman reports that he was hitting 98mph in that showing.

Prior to the lengthy injury odyssey, Altavilla had some major league experience with the Mariners and Padres, showing an ability for big strikeouts but also control concerns. He currently has a career earned run average of 4.03 in 116 big league innings. He struck out 26.1% of batters in that time but also walked 12.1%.

The Royals have plenty of room in their bullpen for some guys to step up and take jobs. Scott Barlow and Aroldis Chapman were both traded last year, removing two of the higher-leverage guys. They have since acquired Nick Anderson, but there’s still not a lot of certainty in the relief mix. If Altavilla is in good form and gets a roster spot, he could be retained for another season via arbitration since his service time is still below the five-year mark. He is out of options, however, meaning he wouldn’t have the ability to be sent back down to the minors without being exposed to waivers.

Mets, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Royals Interested In Lucas Giolito

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Free agent right-hander Lucas Giolito is getting a lot of attention, with Jon Morosi of MLB.com reporting that the Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, and Royals are interested in him. The interest from the Dodgers was already reported but the four other clubs are new mentions.

Giolito, 29, is one of the hardest free agents to value. From 2019 to 2021, he made 72 starts and tossed 427 2/3 innings with a 3.47 earned run average. He struck out 30.7% of batters faced in that time while walking just 8%. His 11.3 wins above replacement in that stretch, per FanGraphs, was seventh among all pitchers in the league.

Things took a bit of a downturn in 2022, at least in terms of results. His ERA jumped to 4.90 and his strikeouts dropped a bit, though his 25.4% rate was still above league average. His .340 batting average on balls in play that year stands out as a clear outlier, as he’s never had that figure finish higher than .274 in any other season. His 4.06 FIP and 3.79 SIERA both suggested he was actually more in line with his previous track record than the ERA would indicate.

He seemed to be back on track in the first half of 2023, making 21 starts for the White Sox with a 3.79 ERA. But things went downhill for him after he was traded to the Angels prior to the deadline. He took the ball six times for the Halos, posting an ERA of 6.89 in those. As that club fell out of contention, he was put on waivers and claimed by the Guardians. Six more starts with that club yielded an even worse ERA of 7.04. His walk rate jumped to 10.8% in the 12 starts after being traded and he also allowed 20 home runs in just 63 1/3 innings.

That poor stretch of play represents such a small sample in a career that now includes over 1,000 big leagues innings, but was unfortunately timed right before his first trip to free agency. MLBTR predicted he would get a two-year, $44MM with an opt-out that lets him potentially return to free agency with a stronger platform.

Each of the four clubs now connected to him are sensible fits since they each are known to need pitching. The Diamondbacks have Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly in two rotation spots with Brandon Pfaadt likely to be somewhere behind them, but there’s not much certainty beyond that. General manager Mike Hazen has been open about the club’s desire to upgrade the rotation this offseason.

The Mets have added Luis Severino to a rotation that also features Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana, but there are question marks for the back end and even Severino is no guarantee after his poor 2023 campaign.

The Red Sox have plenty of options but none of them concrete. Chris Sale should be in one spot but he hasn’t reached 105 innings pitched in a season since 2019 due to various injuries. Brayan Bello had a decent 2023 season overall but faded later in the year with a 5.49 ERA in the second half. Each of Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Kutter Crawford have oscillated between the rotation and bullpen without permanently cementing a spot. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said at the Winter Meetings that the club would be “aggressive” in pursuing upgrades.

The Royals have plenty of questions in their rotation. Cole Ragans had a strong finish after coming over in the Aroldis Chapman trade but Brady Singer and Jordan Lyles each had disappointing seasons. General manager J.J. Picollo said this week that the club has about $30MM to spend and adding a starter is one thing on their to-do list. Signing someone like Giolito would likely eat up a decent chunk of that budget and leave little for bullpen upgrades, but it’s at least feasible that they could dedicate more of their resources to the rotation.

Guardians Win Draft Lottery

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The second ever MLB draft lottery was conducted at the Winter Meetings this afternoon. The Guardians were surprisingly awarded the first overall pick, followed by the Reds and Rockies. Cleveland entered the event with just a 2% chance of securing the highest selection.

Cincinnati also surprisingly drew near the top of the league. The Reds’ chances of landing the first pick were less than 1%. While they didn’t quite get to #1, they jump up to second despite having the 14th-worst record this year.

Here’s the first round order:

  1. Guardians
  2. Reds
  3. Rockies
  4. Athletics
  5. White Sox
  6. Royals
  7. Cardinals
  8. Angels
  9. Pirates
  10. Nationals
  11. Tigers
  12. Red Sox
  13. Giants
  14. Cubs
  15. Mariners
  16. Marlins
  17. Brewers
  18. Rays
  19. Mets
  20. Blue Jays
  21. Twins
  22. Orioles
  23. Dodgers
  24. Padres
  25. Yankees
  26. Braves
  27. Phillies
  28. Astros
  29. Diamondbacks
  30. Rangers

As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the three worst teams all had identical chances of landing the top selection.

All non-playoff teams ostensibly have a chance to win the lottery. However, the CBA also prevents a team that is not a revenue sharing recipient from landing within the top six in consecutive seasons. That ruled out the Nationals this year, as they selected 2nd overall a season ago. (As an interesting aside, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America relays that a ball for Washington was actually chosen on the initial drawing for the first pick. As a result of the CBA provision capping them from picking higher than 10th, that result was voided. Cleveland’s winning ball was drawn on the second trial.)

This year, the A’s, Royals and Rockies had the best chance of securing the #1 overall selection. Each had an 18.3% probability for the pick. The White Sox (14.7%) and Cardinals (8.3%) had the fourth and fifth highest odds, respectively.

Also of note: none of the Mets, Yankees or Padres were drawn into the top six. Those teams surpassed the third luxury tax tier. As a result, their highest choices were dropped by 10 spots apiece. Had any of them received a lottery pick, their second-highest pick would have been moved back instead.

The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.

While the 2023 draft was extremely highly regarded at the top — particularly with the first five selections — the ’24 class isn’t as lauded. Much can change with the upcoming amateur baseball season in the spring, of course, but early indications are that having a top selection may not be quite as impactful as it would be in a typical season (and certainly not last summer). Baseball America recently updated its Top 100 draft prospects.

Picollo: Royals Have At Least $30 Million To Spend This Offseason

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The Royals have been relatively active over the first month of the offseason, inking one of the four free agent position players to sign so far this winter and trading for two pitchers ahead of the non-tender deadline in November. Still, the front office has plenty of work to do if the team is going to improve upon a 56-106 record in 2024. On Monday, Royals general manager J.J. Picollo spoke with members of the media at the Winter Meetings to discuss the team’s plans for the remainder of the offseason.

Most notably, Picollo revealed that he has at least $30MM to spend in free agency (as relayed by Jaylon Thompson of The Kansas City Star). That could bring the team’s 2024 payroll just over $100MM, a total the Royals have not surpassed since 2019. What’s more, the executive suggested he could spend beyond that estimate for the right players.

Presumably, Picollo will use most of his budget to improve a pitching staff that finished second-last in the AL in ERA, SIERA, and FanGraphs WAR last season. He specified that he would like to acquire one starting pitcher and two relievers, one of whom would hopefully step into the closer’s role.

While Picollo didn’t identify any particular targets, he stated on MLB Network Radio that the Royals “can be competitive” in the price range several free agent starting pitchers have already signed for. Presumably, he’s not referring to Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, but instead the next tier down. That means pitchers like Kyle Gibson, Kenta Maeda, Luis Severino, Nick Martinez, and Lance Lynn, all of whom signed for an annual average salary in the $11MM to $13MM range.

During his appearance on MLB Network Radio, Picollo also touched on the non-monetary side of free agent negotiations. Factors beyond money are particularly relevant for a rebuilding team like the Royals, as they try to convince free agents they are an attractive destination despite their recent string of losing seasons. “When you’re recruiting free agents they want to know what your plan is,” he said. “So our process has got to be pretty deep and thorough because we’re really selling those players on what we can do for them.”

One name on many fans’ minds is Zack Greinke, who became a free agent following the 2023 season. According to Picollo (and as relayed by Thompson), the Royals are still waiting to hear if the six-time All-Star plans to retire this winter. While he isn’t the star he used to be during his first run with Kansas City, Greinke has been a reliable innings eater for the Royals over the last two seasons, pitching 279 1/3 innings with a 4.38 ERA. Given his popularity within the organization, his solid performance over the past two years, and the team’s lack of pitching depth, one would think the Royals would be interested if Greinke decided to pitch again in 2024, but Picollo stopped short of confirming as much.

He did, however, confirm that MJ Melendez will continue to play the outfield next season. The 25-year-old was once one of the top catching prospects in baseball, but he transitioned to a full-time outfield role this past season. His defense never stood out behind the plate, where he was blocked in the Royals organization by Salvador Perez anyhow. With the emergence of backup catcher Freddy Fermin, and with the way Melendez improved at the plate after he stopped catching in 2023, it doesn’t come as much of a surprise that the Royals are going to keep him in the outfield going forward.

Finally, Picollo revealed that first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino is ready to return to normal baseball activities over the winter after missing the final four months of the 2023 season with a torn labrum in his right shoulder. According to Thompson, the team will provide further information on his status during today’s media session.

Royals Exploring Relief Market

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The Royals are exploring the market for relief help, manager Matt Quatraro said at this week’s Winter Meetings (relayed by Anne Rogers of MLB.com). General manager J.J. Picollo took a broader approach in an appearance on the MLB Network with Matt Vasgersian and Harold Reynolds, saying they’re evaluating both the rotation and bullpen markets.

Picollo expressed a similar desire to upgrade the starting five a couple weeks ago. Kansas City subsequently brought in Kyle Wright in a trade with the Braves, but he’ll miss all of next season recovering from shoulder surgery. It’s natural they’re still searching for pitching help in any area, although Picollo noted today they’ll need to “rebuild (the) bullpen.”

That could point to multiple additions to the relief unit. The Royals acquired Nick Anderson in a cash transaction with Atlanta in the middle of November. He’s one fairly experienced addition to a bullpen still consisting of mostly young pitchers. Among returning hurlers with 20+ innings pitched, only James McArthur and swingman Alec Marsh turned in a sub-4.00 ERA when working out of the bullpen. Carlos Hernández and Taylor Clarke joined that group in narrowly posting a strikeout rate better than league average.

Only the Rockies — who play in a much more difficult home park for pitchers — had a worse bullpen ERA overall. K.C. relievers finished 23rd in strikeout rate and 28th in walk percentage. Given that lack of depth, it’s unsurprising that the Royals are looking to add beyond Anderson. Quatraro noted the roster as currently constructed doesn’t have a closer, so they project to have a committee approach to the late innings for now.

If the front office wants to add some stability, they could pursue someone with experience handling the ninth inning. Kansas City’s $3.75MM free agent deal with Aroldis Chapman last offseason was one of the winter’s best rebound fliers, as the Royals flipped him for breakout lefty Cole Ragans after Chapman turned in a stellar first half. While Chapman is presumably out of Kansas City’s price range this time around, the likes of David Robertson and Dylan Floro are speculative bounceback candidates who have worked as closers in the past.

Picollo also confirmed reports that the Royals have had some extension talks with franchise shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. The GM predictably didn’t tip his hand about the status of negotiations or handicap the odds of getting a deal done but noted the team “(loves) having him” and called Witt the “face of our future.” The righty-hitting shortstop connected on 30 home runs with a .276/.319/.495 batting line while playing 158 games this year. He’s under club control for four more seasons and will reach arbitration for the first time next winter if the sides don’t agree to a long-term deal in the interim.

Coaching Notes: Tigers, Iapoce, Royals, Dillon

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Catching up on some coaching staff moves from around baseball…

  • The Tigers will name Anthony Iapoce as their new first base coach, Lynn Henning of the Detroit News reports (X link).  Tim Federowicz is leaving his position as the big league catching coach to take over as the manager at Triple-A Toledo, which was Iapoce’s previous job in 2023.  Iapoce worked as a hitting coach with the Rangers and Cubs from 2016-21 and then as a senior hitting coordinator with the Red Sox in 2022 before joining Detroit’s organization.  Federowicz retired from playing following the 2021 season, and the former catcher is already on his second Triple-A managerial stint after previously being the skipper of the Mariners’ top affiliate in 2022.
  • The Royals announced the hiring of Joe Dillon as an assistant hitting coach.  A big leaguer with the Marlins, Brewers, and Rays from 2005-09, Dillon’s time in Tampa’s organization overlapped with the tenure of current Royals manager Matt Quatraro, back when Quatraro was working as an instructor in the Rays’ minor league system.  Dillon also has longstanding ties in Kansas City, as the Royals began his pro career when they selected him in the seventh round of the 1997 draft.  Since retiring as a player, Dillon has worked as a hitting coach and coordinator at the Major League and minor league level, including two years as the Nationals’ assistant hitting coach in 2018-19, and then working as the Phillies’ big league hitting coach in 2020-21.

Royals Sign Garrett Hampson

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The Royals announced that they have signed infielder/outfielder Garrett Hampson to a one-year contract. Hampson will make a salary of $2MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.

Hampson, 29, spent the 2023 season with the Marlins in a utility capacity. He got into 98 games and stepped to the plate 252 times, striking out at a 26.6% clip and only hitting three home runs but he did draw walks 9.1% of the time. His .276/.349/.380 batting line was a hair above league average, translating to a wRC+ of 101, though his .379 batting average on balls in play was almost 60 points higher than his career rate in that department. That roughly average offensive production was actually a big step up from his time in Colorado, as Hampson slashed .233/.292/.369 for the Rockies from 2019 to 2022.

Hitting aside, Hampson can provide value in other ways. His sprint speed was considered by Statcast to be in the 98th percentile in 2023. He only stole five bases on the year but has 57 in his career. Defensively, he has spent time at all three outfield positions and the three infield spots to the left of first base, giving him plenty of versatility.

After the 2022 season, the Rockies non-tendered him instead of paying a projected $2.1MM salary. He then had to settle for a minor league deal with the Marlins and ended up having a decent campaign in a part-time role but it wasn’t enough for the Fish to keep him on the roster. He exhausted his final option year in 2023 and would have less roster flexibility going forward, so the Marlins opted not to tender him a contract at a projected rate of $1.3MM.

The Royals are willing to give him $2MM and a roster spot, presumably to utilize him in the same multi-positional role he has held so far in his career. The club has Bobby Witt Jr. implanted at shortstop but second base and third base have less certainty. Maikel Garcia is the favorite at the hot corner and has a good floor with his speed and defense, but he hit just four home runs in 515 plate appearances in 2023. Michael Massey could be in line for the lion’s share of playing time at second after hitting 15 homers this year but his .274 on-base percentage was among the worst in the league last year. Center field has similar question marks after subpar offensive seasons from Drew Waters and Kyle Isbel.

In addition to those aforementioned areas, injuries will inevitably arise over the course of a 162-game season, creating holes elsewhere. Hampson can help fill in there or perhaps serve as a late-game defensive replacement or pinch runner, depending on how things shake up over the remainder of the offseason. Nick Loftin and Samad Taylor are also on the roster as utility options but they each have options and less than a year of service time.

Royals Had Interest In Seth Lugo Last Offseason

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Before Seth Lugo signed with the Padres last winter, the Royals were “reportedly” one of the other teams interested, the Kansas City Star’s Jaylon Thompson writes.  That doesn’t necessarily mean that K.C. has continued that interest now that Lugo is a free agent again, yet given the Royals’ need for starting pitching and the apparent fact that the majority of the league has at least checked in on Lugo’s services, it stands to reason that the Royals still have the right-hander on their radar.

The price tag will be significantly higher for Lugo this time around.  After inking a two-year, $15MM deal with San Diego last winter, Lugo re-established himself as a starting pitcher and posted a solid 3.57 ERA over 146 1/3 innings in 2023.  This puts Lugo in line for at least the three years and $42MM that MLB Trade Rumors has projected, and it seems entirely possible that he’ll land an even bigger payday given the broad interest in his services.  Kansas City might be hard pressed to land Lugo if it turns into a pure bidding war, yet as Thompson notes, the Royals already know they won’t be vying for the most expensive free agent pitchers.  Some teams might see Lugo as a bit more of a backup plan if they can’t land a top-tier starter, whereas the Royals are theoretically more able to focus all their attention on the 34-year-old early.

Royals Sign Four To Minor League Contracts

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The Royals announced that right-hander Luis Cessa, left-hander Austin Cox, catcher Logan Porter, and outfielder Diego Hernandez have all been signed to minor league deals.  Cessa is a newcomer to the organization, while Cox, Hernandez, and Porter are making quick returns after being non-tendered yesterday.

Best known for his team with the Yankees as a starter, reliever, and swingman, Cessa had a 2.51 over 64 2/3 bullpen innings with New York and Cincinnati during the 2021 season.  Cessa moved back into swingman work in 2022 with mixed results (a 4.57 ERA), and things went south for the right-hander in 2023.  Pressed into rotation work at the start of the year, Cessa struggled to a 9.00 ERA over 26 innings and was released by the Reds in May.  That marked the end of Cessa’s big league work last year, as he caught on with the Rockies and Nationals on minor league contracts but continued to struggle badly at Triple-A.

Cessa’s career 4.43 ERA and 4.41 SIERA are virtually identical, so the righty hasn’t exactly gotten away with a lack of missed bats throughout his career.  Cessa has gotten by with some good whiff and chase rates despite the low strikeout totals, and he had been good at limiting heavy contact in the form of barrels prior to 2023.  Control had also never really been an issue for Cessa prior to 2023, yet his walk rates crept upwards at both the MLB and minor league levels, leaving him even less margin for error.

The 31-year-old will try to get on track with the Royals, who need pitching of all kinds whether in the rotation or bullpen.  Since Kansas City isn’t expected to be a big spender this winter, it seems likely that the team will look to bring any number of veteran arms into camp on minor league or low-cost deals, in the hopes that at least a couple of them could break out and win jobs on the Opening Day roster.

None of Cox, Porter, or Hernandez were eligible for salary arbitration, but Cox and Porter were designated for assignment this past week and ultimately cut to open up some space on Kansas City’s 40-man roster.  In Hernandez’s case, the outfielder will return for his sixth season in the Royals’ farm system, and will probably start 2024 back at Double-A.

Cox made his MLB debut in 2023, posting a 4.54 ERA over 35 2/3 innings before his rookie year came to an unfortunately early end.  Cox tore his ACL while trying to cover first base during a fielding play in the Royals’ game with the Blue Jays on September 8, and he’ll now miss most or all of the 2024 season in recovery.  It seems quite possible that a handshake deal was in place for Cox to rejoin the Royals, as he was only DFA’ed yesterday and quickly passed through waivers, so he’ll now get to rehab in a familiar environment.

Porter was another 2023 debut, as he had a .647 OPS in 38 plate appearances over his first 11 games in the Show.  An undrafted free agent who signed with the Royals in 2018, Porter hit .248/.367/.394 over 594 PA at Triple-A over the last two seasons, and should again serve as a depth option at the minor league level behind the Royals’ big league catching tandem of Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin.

Braves, Royals Swap Kyle Wright For Jackson Kowar

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The Braves have traded right-hander Kyle Wright to the Royals in exchange for fellow righty Jackson Kowar. Wright underwent shoulder surgery following the season and is expected to miss the entire 2024 campaign, though Kansas City will control him for two years after that.

Wright, 28, was the No. 5 overall pick in the 2017 draft, and while he took several years to get there, he eventually broke out with a dominant showing in 2022. After posting a 6.56 ERA through 70 innings across parts of four seasons from 2018-21, Wright turned in a career-best performance in just about every capacity in 2022. Over the life of 180 1/3 frames, he logged a 3.19 earned run average with a 23.6% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate, 55.6% grounder rate and 0.95 HR/9.

That ostensibly set the stage for Wright to pitch near the top of the Atlanta rotation for years to come, but as is so often the case with pitchers, injuries intervened and changed his career trajectory. Wright reported shoulder soreness during spring training and opened the year on the 15-day IL. He returned in mid-April but was placed back on the injured list just three weeks later — this time eventually being moved to the 60-day IL. Wright returned for four September appearances and was hit hard while showing diminished velocity. He underwent surgery after the conclusion of the regular season and won’t be back on a big league mound until the 2025 campaign.

Overall, Wright’s 2023 season included just 31 innings of 6.97 ERA ball with strikeout, walk and home run rates that all trended in the wrong direction. He’s eligible for arbitration this winter and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $1.4MM in his first trip through the process. He’ll all but certainly make an identical salary in 2025 after sitting out the ’24 campaign and accruing a full year of service on the 60-day injured list. Kansas City is effectively acquiring two healthy years of Wright. That first season will more or less cost them $2.8MM (next year’s ~$1.4MM salary and a matching amount the following year). Wright will be on an innings limit of some kind in ’25 and ideally be built up to a full workload in 2026.

In return for this long-term upside play on Wright, the Royals will give the Braves six years of club control over Kowar — a former Florida Gators star, first-round pick and top prospect who’s yet to pan out in K.C. Kowar has one minor league option year remaining after being granted a fourth option due to injuries (hat tip to Bowman), but the 27-year-old has yielded 75 earned runs in 74 Major League innings across parts of three seasons. Suffice it to say, he’s a project and an upside play in his own right.

While Kowar clearly hasn’t had any big league success to date, he’s seen a pronounced uptick in velocity since moving to a bullpen role on a full-time basis. After averaging 95.7 mph on his heater as a starter in 2021, he averaged 97 mph in 2023. That’s impressive life, to be sure, but the pitch also has well below-average spin — and Kowar’s broader 10.7% swinging-strike rate across his entire arsenal is still slightly below league average. Kowar struck out 21.2% if his opponents in 2023 but also walked 14.6% of them — bringing his career walk rate to 13.7%.

The Braves clearly see something they like, however. Kowar ranked among Baseball America’s top-100 prospects in both the 2019-20 and 2020-21 offseasons and generally posted solid or better numbers throughout the minors up until the 2022 season. He’s been hit hard in Triple-A over the past two years, just as he has in the big leagues, but if the Braves can get him back to his pre-’22 form, they’ll have secured six years of club control over a hard-throwing bullpen arm.

Anne Rogers of MLB.com first reported the Royals were acquiring Wright for Kowar. Rogers’ colleague Mark Bowman first indicated that some type of deal involving Wright could be in the works.

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