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Free Agent Notes: Imanaga, Fedde, Barnes

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Left-hander Shota Imanaga was officially posted by the Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball late last month, kicking off a 45-day window during which he’ll be eligible to sign with major league clubs. While Imanaga only just officially joined the ranks of MLB’s free agents days ago, he’s long been expected to be posted this offseason. That’s allowed Imanaga’s free agency to develop considerable buzz in recent months.

While he’s largely been overshadowed by NPB superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who’s widely considered the top starting pitcher on this offseason’s market, Imanaga is an impressive pitcher in his own right who is expected to be a potential mid-rotation arm in the big leagues with a low-nineties fastball as part of a deep pitch mix that Brandon Tew of Sports Info Solutions recently profiled. MLBTR ranked Imanaga tenth (sixth among starting pitchers) on our annual top 50 free agents list and projected him for a five year, $85MM deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggests that Imanaga’s market may be even stronger than expected, noting in a recent article that while teams were initially hopeful the southpaw could be had on a deal similar to the five-year, $75MM pact Kodai Senga landed last offseason, his final deal figures to exceed that, potentially to the point of approaching a $100MM guarantee.

Should Imanaga’s contract ultimately reach the $100MM range suggested by Passan, it would be a major win not only for Imanaga but also the BayStars. Imanaga’s free agency is subject to the MLB/NPB posting system, under which the team that signs the left-hander would owe the BayStars a posting fee worth as much as 20% of Imanaga’s total guarantee, with the percentage going down as the price of Imanaga’s contract goes up. If Imanaga were to sign for $100MM guaranteed, the BayStars would receive approximately $16.9MM, or just over $2MM more than they would receive if Imanaga signed an $85MM deal in line with MLBTR’s projections. The Cubs, Red Sox, and Mets have all been connected to Imanaga so far this offseason, though it’s certainly possible more teams are involved in the bidding for the 30-year-old’s services.

More free agent notes from around the league…

  • Former Nationals top prospect Erick Fedde is among the most interesting free agents on the market this offseason after a dominant season with the NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization. Previous reports have indicated that Fedde, who sports a career 5.41 ERA across six seasons in the majors but altered his repertoire before dominating to the tune of a 2.00 ERA across 30 starts with the Dinos this year, has garnered interest from both the Dinos and MLB clubs. Su-eun Jeon of Baseball Korea (h/t Dan Kurtz of MyKBO) adds additional clarity to those reports, noting that Fedde has received interest from two MLB teams and a team in Japan’s NPB in addition to the offer he’s received to return to the Dinos. While it’s possible that Fedde could look to return to stateside ball this offseason, it’s worth noting that no former big leaguer returning from the KBO has secured a guarantee of even $10MM in the majors. That could lead Fedde to bet on himself by either remaining with the Dinos in hopes of a similarly dominant season in 2024 to further bolster his case for a more significant pact, or even consider a move to Japan in order to face NPB’s stiffer competition.
  • Fedde isn’t the only American-born player of note who could look to return to the majors this offseason, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggests left-hander Charlie Barnes is expected to garner MLB interest in free agency this offseason. Barnes, 28, was a fourth-round pick by the Twins in the 2017 draft and made nine appearances with the big league club in 2021. He struggled to a 5.92 ERA and 5.06 FIP in 38 innings of work for Minnesota across nine appearances. He’s spent the two years since then pitching for the KBO’s Lotte Giants, with a combined 3.46 ERA in 61 starts. Looking just at his 2023 season, Barnes struck out 20% of batters faced with a 3.28 ERA in 170 1/3 innings of work. In addition to the aforementioned MLB interest, Morosi suggests that the Giants are expected to have strong interest in retaining Barnes, who served as the ace of their staff this season.

MLB Tenders Status Check On KBO Reliever Deok Ju Ham

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Major League Baseball has tendered a status check with the Korea Baseball Organization on left-handed reliever Deok Ju Ham, reports Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency. The status check is a formal procedure when big league clubs are showing interest in a KBO player. Ham is a true unrestricted free agent due to the fact that he’s already accrued more than nine years of service time in the KBO. As such, he can sign with any team — KBO, MLB, NPB or otherwise — without requiring a transfer via the posting system.

Ham, 29 in January, was a key bullpen arm for the KBO champion LG Twins this past season, pitching to an outstanding 1.62 earned run average with a 26.6% strikeout rate, 9.9% walk rate and 59.8% ground-ball rate in 55 2/3 innings. Injuries limited his innings and effectiveness in 2021-22, but overall Ham possesses a strong track record. Dating back to 2018, he sports a 3.04 ERA with a 23.4% strikeout rate. He’s walked an unsightly 12% of his opponents over that span, but a good portion of those command struggles came during his injury-shortened 2021-22 campaigns (when he dealt with elbow troubles and frequent blister issues, per Yoo). In his past two full, healthy seasons (2020 and 2023), Ham posted walk rates of 8.8% and 9.9%. Those are still sub-par marks but not quite as alarming as walk rates he posted while batting injuries.

The status check from MLB to KBO is a clear indicator that Ham has drawn at least some level of interest from one or more MLB clubs, though the extent of that interest isn’t clear — nor is the identity of the team(s) in question. Status checks on KBO players do not always portend a deal with a big league club, either. It’s possible Ham ultimately prefers to stay in South Korea and/or simply finds more lucrative deals in his current setting.

Yoo notes that Ham features four pitches — four-seamer, slider, curveball, changeup — the best of which is his changeup. That explains Ham’s reverse splits in 2023, as the changeup gives him a weapon to neutralize opposite-handed opponents. Ham is not a hard-thrower, however, and relies more on a deceptive delivery than overpowering stuff.

Because Ham is a true free agent, there’s no set negotiation window with MLB clubs and thus no good way of knowing when he might decide between testing the MLB waters or returning to the KBO (be it with the Twins or a new team in free agency). Given his track record and his excellent platform year with the eventual Korean Series champions, Ham should have offers to remain in South Korea if MLB teams don’t make any compelling offers.

The offseason market for left-handed relievers includes a handful of solid veterans beyond top dog Josh Hader, who could establish a new benchmark for bullpen contracts this winter. Aroldis Chapman, Matt Moore, Wandy Peralta, Brent Suter, Will Smith and star NPB left-hander Yuki Matsui are among the non-Hader options available. One point in Ham’s favor is that he’s considerably younger than most of the other free agents; Matsui is heading into his age-28 season, but the most established lefties on this winter’s market are all in their mid-to-late 30s.

Erick Fedde Weighing Interest From KBO, MLB Clubs

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Former Nationals first-round pick and top prospect Erick Fedde just wrapped up a dominant season with the Korea Baseball Organization’s NC Dinos, which saw the 30-year-old righty take home league MVP honors in his first season overseas. He’s unsurprisingly drawn MLB interest on the heels of that performance, but Fedde will have to weigh that interest against a considerable raise from his incumbent team. Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reports that Fedde has an offer in hand from the Dinos, which GM Sun-Nam Lim describes as the “best” possible offer his team can make “within the rules” of the KBO.

The KBO caps teams’ spending on foreign players, with first-year players able to earn a maximum of $1MM. Fedde earned that $1MM maximum in 2023. As Yoo further explains, KBO clubs are capped at $4MM to be divided among three foreign players. Each player they’re planning to re-sign for a subsequent season can increase that cap by $100K — up to a maximum of three players.

The maximum offer to Fedde, then, would be $4.1MM — although Lim did not expressly state such an offer has been made. Doing so would require forgoing other foreign signings entirely. It’s plenty feasible that Lim was suggesting they’ve offered what they feel is the most they can while still retaining enough pool space to sign two other foreign players on minimal commitments. Yonhap’s initial report indicates that the Dinos have offered Fedde “at least” one additional year; it’s plausible the team has put forth a multi-year deal, which could technically clock in at just over $4MM in AAV (again, if the Dinos are comfortable entirely forgoing other foreign additions). Near as we at MLBTR can recall, no KBO team has ever gone to such lengths to retain a foreign player. One source who has ample experience dealing with KBO clubs expressed serious doubt to MLBTR that a team would commit its whole pool to one player.

Fedde spoke with Yoo about the decisions he faces this winter, noting that it’s still early in the process and that he faces “so many unknowns” on the heels of leading the KBO in wins (20), strikeouts (209) and ERA (2.00). Fedde touted his faith in agent Scott Boras, voiced his appreciation for everything the Dinos have done for him, and suggested he’ll ultimately do what he feels is best for him and his family.

Fedde’s debut campaign in the KBO was nothing short of remarkable. He pitched 180 1/3 innings of 2.00 ERA ball, averaging six innings per outing along the way. He fanned 29.5% of his opponents against a 4.9% walk rate and recorded an enormous 70% ground-ball rate. KBO hitters don’t tend to focus on elevating the ball as much as their MLB counterparts, so it’s common to see larger ground-ball rates among pitchers there, but a 70% clip is nevertheless excellent.

Presumably, given the demand for starting pitching throughout MLB, Fedde will find guaranteed offers to return to the Majors. The former No. 18 overall pick climbed as high as No. 52 on Baseball America’s top-100 rankings prior to his MLB debut, so there’s certainly some track record and prospect pedigree that adds to his appeal for big league clubs.

Had he just enjoyed a strong season while following the same gameplan he did throughout his time in the Majors and in Triple-A, perhaps interest would be a bit more muted, with teams chalking up his success to facing lighter competition. That’s surely a factor, but Fedde also chatted with Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post back in September about how he’s worked to change the shape of his breaking ball, change the release point on his heater, alter the grip on his changeup and adding a newly adopted sweeper to his repertoire. It’s a notable enough series of changes — particularly the incorporation of an entirely new offering — that Fedde will be viewed as a decidedly different pitcher than he was during his run with the Nats organization.

The extent to which teams are sold on the changes will obviously determine the strength of offers he’ll receive from MLB teams. In recent years, we’ve seen Merrill Kelly, Chris Flexen and Josh Lindblom parlay strong KBO showings into big league deals — Flexen after spending only one year in South Korea. We’ve not yet seen a former big league pitcher coming back from the KBO reach $10MM in guaranteed money, though Fedde’s performance was more dominant than Kelly and Flexen, and he’s three years younger than Lindblom (another former KBO MVP) was when he returned.

On the other hand, even if an MLB team is willing to offer something like two years and $10-12MM total, Fedde could also consider further betting on himself with another year leading the Dinos’ staff. If he were to repeat this performance or even show improvement, he could take home a healthy raise on this past year’s $1MM salary and then hit the open market next winter in search of a two-, three- or even four-year deal from an MLB club at a much heartier annual rate than is likely available to him right now.

It all boils down to a matter of risk tolerance for Fedde, who’ll have to weigh the options of maxing out on his earning power right now or taking a lesser 2024 contract in pursuit of a heftier deal next offseason. Regardless of which route he chooses, the mere fact that he’s in this position is a testament to the strength of his 2023 performance, which stands a clear-cut example of the earning upside players chase when taking their game overseas.

KBO’s SSG Landers Sign Robert Dugger

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The SSG Landers of the Korea Baseball Organization announced Tuesday that they’ve signed right-hander Robert Dugger to a one-year deal worth $750K (link via Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency). He can earn another $150K via incentives.

Dugger, 28, logged MLB time each season from 2019-22, compiling a total of 86 2/3 innings between the Marlins, Mariners, Rays and Reds. He was hit hard during that stretch, yielding a 7.17 ERA, but he’s posted solid results in an exorbitantly hitter-friendly Triple-A setting in each of the past two seasons. Dugger’s 4.31 earned run average with the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate in 2023 actually led all qualified starting pitchers in the Pacific Coast League and ranked ranked fourth among starters with at least 70 innings pitched. He coupled that mark with a 22.6% strikeout rate, 9.5% walk rate and 43.5% ground-ball rate.

Baseball America ranked Dugger among the Marlins’ top 30 prospects each year from 2018-20, labeling him a potential back-of-the-rotation starter thanks more to a deep and varied five-pitch arsenal than due to any one truly plus offering. He’ll take that skill set overseas in his first foray into professional ball in Asia, and in doing so will secure a much larger payday than he’d have commanded as a depth arm in Triple-A hoping for what would’ve likely been a brief call to the Majors before again being a DFA candidate as an out-of-options journeyman.

Dugger has never been seen as a power arm, averaging just 90.9 mph on his four-seamer and 90.1 mph on his sinker throughout his big league trials. That lack of velo won’t be as glaring in the KBO, where the average fastball clocks in lower than in MLB.

As a former 18th-round pick, he’ll relish this opportunity to secure the largest guaranteed salary of his career. And with a nice season for the Landers, Dugger could position himself to re-sign on a seven-figure deal (or close to it). Enough success could garner him some interest from Japan’s NPB or perhaps even pave the way for an eventual return to the Majors.

Jung Hoo Lee Likely To Be Posted In Early December

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11:02PM: The KBO officially requested to Major League Baseball that Lee be posted (reporter Jiheon Pae had the news first, and thanks to MyKBO.net’s Dan Kurtz for the update).  This doesn’t necessarily speed up the timeline reported by Yoo earlier tonight, as Yoo reiterated that “with the Thanksgiving holiday, the process likely won’t begin in earnest until early December.”  Once Lee is posted, his window will only be 30 days, not 45.  The change to a 45-day posting period was made last offseason for NPB players, though it appears as though players coming from the KBO League have just the original 30 days to find a contract.

9:42PM: The Kiwoom Heroes gave Jung Hoo Lee’s medical records to KBO League officials yesterday, Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News reports (via X).  Between the usual review protocols between both the KBO and then MLB officials, Yoo figures that Lee will be officially posted for Major League teams in early December, factoring in a bit of delay given the Thanksgiving holiday.

That will officially open the floodgates on what is expected to be a brisk market for Lee’s services, with the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reporting that 20 teams are interested in the outfielder.  With this many teams potentially in the hunt, it certainly seems like Lee could match or exceed MLBTR’s projection of a five-year, $50MM contract, a prediction made due to both Lee’s impressive track record in South Korea and the fact that he is only 25 years old.  The Giants, Yankees, and Padres are the teams who have been publicly linked to Lee’s market to date.

While Lee’s expected price tag will be much lower than that of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the two players share some market similarities due to their young age of 25.  In theory, both have lots of prime years ahead and perhaps haven’t even reached their peak, whereas many players coming to the majors from Japan or South Korea are already in their late 20’s or into their 30’s by the time they’re posted, or by the time they amass enough service time for full free agency.

Because NPB is seen as a higher caliber of league than the KBO and because Yamamoto is seen as more of a true elite talent, his expected contract will naturally be higher than Lee’s, since some scouts aren’t entirely sold on how Lee’s bat will translate to much power against MLB pitching.  Some comps have been made to Masataka Yoshida but with a higher defensive ceiling, even if Lee might not stick in center field.  Lee’s platform year was also limited to 86 games due to season-ending ankle surgery, and while he should be healthy for Spring Training, he missed a critical chance to further showcase himself for any doubting evaluators.

In short, there’s plenty of room for variance on the kinds of offers that Lee might get, since there’s bound to be a wide range of opinions within a 20-team field.  Some teams might drop out of the running simply because they’ve made other outfield acquisitions in the interim, maybe before Lee’s posting window even opens.  Other teams who have a larger presence in international scouting will have more data on Lee, though that perhaps would work either for or against him depending on a club’s opinion.

As per the league posting rules, Lee will have 45 days to sign with a Major League team once his posting period opens.  If he can’t land a contract within those 45 days, he’ll return to the Heroes for the 2024 KBO season and have to wait until next winter for another chance at coming to the big leagues.  While it seems likely Lee will find an acceptable deal to come to North America, a return to South Korea can’t be entirely ruled out.  There could be lingering concerns over his health or perhaps just how he’ll adjust to the majors, or Lee and his agents at the Boras Corporation might not be satisfied with the offers on the table.

The Heroes will receive a posting fee tied to Lee’s eventual contract, with the new MLB club paying this fee on top of what they give to Lee himself.  The Heroes will get 20% of the first $25MM of a contract, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of anything beyond the $50MM threshold.  At MLBTR’s projection of a $50MM deal, the Heroes would get a $9.375MM posting fee.

KBO’s LG Twins Re-Sign Casey Kelly

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Right-hander Casey Kelly has re-signed with the LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization, tweets Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap. He’ll make $1.5MM for the 2024 season.

Kelly heads back to the Seoul-based franchise for a sixth season. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggested earlier this month that the 34-year-old could be on MLB radars. While it’s possible he found some amount of big league interest, he’s clearly comfortable with the KBO’s defending champions.

A former first-round pick of the Red Sox, Kelly struggled to a 5.46 ERA with three clubs over parts of four MLB seasons between 2012-18. He has been a durable and effective starter since making the jump to Korea for the 2019 campaign. He has started between 27 and 30 games in each of his five KBO seasons, topping 166 innings annually. This past season’s 3.83 ERA was the highest of any those years.

The Twins also re-signed outfielder Austin Dean last week. That duo is joined by newcomer Dietrich Enns as the team’s three foreign-born players. Righty Adam Plutko did not re-sign and is seeking MLB opportunities this winter.

KBO’s LG Twins To Allow Woo-Suk Go To Explore MLB Opportunities

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11:12pm: LG announced that while they’ll allow Go to explore MLB offers, they’ll reevaluate the posting decision with the pitcher after his market crystallizes (relayed by Dan Kurtz of MyKBO). It seems the club prefers to keep open the possibility of rejecting Go’s posting at a later date if his contract offers are low — which would reduce the team’s posting fee since that is directly tied to the guarantee that Go receives.

10:18pm: The LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization have agreed to make closer Woo-Suk Go available to MLB teams via the posting system, according to a Korean-language report from Spochoo. It is unclear when the posting will be made official.

Go, 25, appeared on the MLB radar last week. Reports emerged that MLB had tendered a status check on the 5’11” right-hander, the standard procedure when one or more big league teams is showing interest in a KBO player who is eligible to be posted. Go subsequently requested that the Twins allow him to explore MLB opportunities. While the club is under no obligation to do so, the Spochoo report indicates they decided to defer to the player’s wishes.

This doesn’t guarantee that Go will sign with a major league team. Once the posting is made official, it will open up a 45-day window for his camp to negotiate with MLB clubs. If Go doesn’t sign in that time period, he’d return to the LG Twins.

Over parts of seven seasons at South Korea’s top level, Go carries a 3.18 ERA. He struggled as a teenager in his first two years before turning in a 2.17 ERA or better in three of his next four seasons. That mark jumped to 3.68 over 44 frames in 2023. He struck out an excellent 31.1% of opposing hitters but walked an elevated 11.8% of batters faced. Go had demonstrated better control in 2021-22 and has fanned at least 28% of hitters in three straight seasons.

Last offseason, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs pegged Go as a 40 FV prospect. His report noted that Go sits in the mid-90s and has touched 98, suggesting he could fit in the middle innings for an MLB team. The pitcher has plenty of high-leverage experience in Korea, where he has topped 30 saves on three occasions.

Since Go will be made available via the posting system rather than unrestricted international free agency, a signing MLB team would owe compensation to the Twins. They’d pay a posting fee equal to 20% of the contract, assuming the guarantee checks in below $25MM.

Yankees, Giants Expected To Pursue Jung Hoo Lee

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South Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee is one of the more intriguing players who’ll be available in this year’s free agent class. The Kiwoom Heroes will make him available to MLB teams via the posting system at some point in the next few weeks.

In an appearance on the MLB Network this afternoon, Jon Morosi suggested the Yankees and Giants are likely to pursue Lee once his free agency opens (X link). It’s not surprising that either team would have interest. Previous reports have indicated San Francisco and New York had done scouting work on Lee during his run in the Korea Baseball Organization. He fits the profile that both teams are known to be targeting this winter.

Lee, 25, is a left-handed hitting center fielder. A hit-over-power offensive player, Lee posted an OPS north of .900 in each season between 2020-22. He won the KBO MVP award with a .349/.421/.575 showing in ’22 but had a disappointing platform year. Lee’s power production plummeted; he hit only six home runs while slugging .455 over 86 games and 387 trips to the plate. His season ended in July when a left ankle injury required surgery. That came with an estimated three month rehab process, so it’s not expected to affect his availability for Spring Training.

While that’s clearly not the season Lee envisioned preceding his jump to the majors, he’ll still be a target for various teams. He’s atypically young for a free agent. Evaluators praise his pure contact skills and strike zone awareness, although there could be some division among teams about whether he projects as an MLB center fielder. Lee’s fringe power would be more alarming if a club feels he’s a better defensive fit in the corner outfield.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told reporters at the GM Meetings they’d like to add two outfielders — ideally ones who hit from the left side. Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has suggested that adding athleticism to their outfield is an offseason priority. Not coincidentally, those clubs are generally speculated as strong fits for Cody Bellinger. Lee is a riskier bet without a body of work against big league pitching but isn’t going to approach Bellinger’s contract.

Of course, there’ll be more teams involved once the posting process gets underway. The Padres have previously been tied to Lee, while teams like the Mariners, Nationals and Royals make sense on paper. Seattle needs corner outfield help and is looking for high-contact hitters. Washington and Kansas City have short-term uncertainty in the outfield and could view Lee as a candidate for a free agent strike as they look to pull out of rebuilds. Given his youth, he’d align better with their competitive timelines than would most free agents.

Dietrich Enns To Sign With KBO’s LG Twins

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Former big league left-hander Dietrich Enns is finalizing a deal with the LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization, per Dan Kurtz of My KBO. The terms of the contract are not yet known.

Enns, 32, was selected by the Yankees in the 19th-round of the draft back in 2012. Enns was swapped to the Twins in 2017 and made his major league debut that same year, though he struggled to a 6.75 ERA in just four innings of work. The lefty spent the next several seasons in the minor leagues, bouncing between the Twins, Padres, and Rays organizations before returning to the big leagues in 2021 with Tampa Bay. Enns found more success with the Rays that season, pitching well in multi-inning relief. In 22 1/3 innings of work across nine appearances, Enns posted a 2.82 ERA with an even stronger 2.32 FIP, striking out 28.4% of batters faced while walking just 6.8%.

Despite that strong performance in 2021, Enns was unable to secure a big league role for the 2022 season and instead departed for a role overseas, joining the Seibu Lions of Japan’s NPB. Enns pitched very well for the Lions in his first NPB season, with a 2.94 ERA in 122 1/3 innings of work across 22 starts. Unfortunately, that success did not carry over to 2023 as the lefty struggled to a 5.17 ERA in just 54 innings of work.

Still, Enns’s success in both the majors in 2021 and NPB in 2022 make him an interesting addition to the Twins, who Kim Geun-han of MK Sports indicates hope that Enns can replace five-year MLB veteran Adam Plutko on the club’s pitching staff for the 2024 campaign. Plutko, for his part, is hoping to return to stateside ball this offseason after posting a 2.49 ERA across 49 starts in Korea the past two seasons.

Austin Dean Re-Signs With KBO’s LG Twins

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Outfielder Austin Dean re-signed with the LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization this week (h/t to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO). He’ll receive a $300K signing bonus, an $800K salary and up to $200K in incentives.

Dean will stick with the KBO’s defending champions for a second season. The right-handed hitter signed with the Seoul-based Twins last December. He had a strong year against KBO pitching, connecting on 23 home runs in 139 games. Dean ran a .314/.376/.517 slash line through 583 trips to the plate.

A fourth-round draftee of the Marlins in 2012, Dean has played parts of five seasons at the big league level. The bulk of that time came with Miami between 2018-19. He picked up sporadic reps with the Cardinals and Giants over the subsequent three seasons. Dean hit .228/.286/.390 over 365 plate appearances against big league arms.

Dean joined pitchers Casey Kelly and Adam Plutko as foreign players on the Twins’ roster in 2023. Kelly and Plutko are back in free agency. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reported this week that Plutko was looking to make it back to MLB after two seasons with the Twins. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted on Tuesday that Kelly could be on major league teams’ radars as well.

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