By Tim Dierkes | at
According to Ken Rosenthal’s latest column, the Blue Jays wanted either Brett Myers or Chad Billingsley plus Matt Kemp or Jonathan Broxton in return for right fielder Alex Rios. Both clubs are known for their current starting pitching surpluses; the Phils actually have the need for an outfielder.
Not too many teams are looking to unload an AL-East-ready starter, so the Jays might have to lower their expectations. Plenty of teams could make room for Rios as a right or center fielder.
By Tim Dierkes | at
I scoured what seemed like a dozen Randy Johnson articles, most of which had the same themes we were hearing yesterday: the Yanks don’t have to trade Johnson, the vacancy could go to Zito or Clemens, the Diamondbacks are in the thick of things, the Padres are the frontrunners, the Dodgers are just driving up the price, and the Giants and Angels are the dark horses.
Joseph A. Reaves of the Arizona Republic has a slightly different take, though: he says the Mariners have surfaced as a potential trade partner. It’s just a one-line mention, but I haven’t seen it confirmed elsewhere yet. I will try. Additionally, Reaves writes that the Dodgers are not interested.
Newday’s Ken Davidoff weighs in on the side of reason: he doesn’t want to trade a decent 200 inning starter. I also agree with him in that Kei Igawa can easily be pushed to the pen for two-thirds of a season if Roger Clemens is brought aboard. The Yanks aren’t so stacked with good starting pitching as to make Johnson expendable.
By Tim Dierkes | at
According to the New York Daily News, you can add the Angels and Dodgers to the list of teams interested in the suddenly-available Randy Johnson. Furthermore, Roger Rubin and Bill Madden name the Padres as Johnson’s most likely suitor right now. This thing has expanded beyond his hometown Diamondbacks.
The paper writes that the Yanks already have some offers on the table. From the Dodgers’ point of view, their interest in Johnson may only be in keeping him away from division rivals. Perhaps a starter would go back to New York in such a deal.
Johnson’s agent hasn’t been looped in yet, but Brian Cashman will need the pitcher’s consent in any deal.
By Tim Dierkes | at
ESPN’s Buster Olney reports in his blog that the Blue Jays are willing to trade right fielder Alex Rios, who turns 26 in February. The Blue Jays are in search of one more quality starter to pair with Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Gustavo Chacin, and perhaps Casey Janssen or Shaun Marcum. It’s a necessity in the AL East.
Back in 2004, Baseball America ranked Rios sixth among all prospects, between Rickie Weeks and Kaz Matsui. Rios earned a promotion to Toronto without mastering Triple A, and his growth kind of stagnated for two years. He played some center field while Vernon Wells was out, and also served as the leadoff hitter for a while.
Before the breakout, many teams tried to pry Rios away. The Nats talked about a Rios for Nick Johnson deal in December of 2004. You can bet Jim Bowden would love him in CF, but doesn’t have the goods for a trade. In the winter of ’05, the Rangers were offering Kevin Mench for Rios while the Nats countered with Brad Wilkerson.
The much-awaited breakout happened this year, as Rios mashed at .330/.383/.585 for 270 ABs leading up to his June 29th leg injury (staph infection). He returned on July 28th and hit .261/.297/.411 thereafter. It was an ugly couple of months but he did bounce back in September.
Some projections for ’07:
Ron Shandler: .293/.337/.500
Bill James: .286/.336/.442
On his glovework, The Fielding Bible wrote:
"Rios is an excellent defender, a five-tool player with outstanding range and speed and a strong, accurate arm suited for right field. The Jays would love to switch him to center field where he is a better offensive fit, but they have a Gold Glover in Vernon Wells entrenched there."
With Ichiro now in center, Rios may be baseball’s best defensive RF.
Olney mentions a few trade possibilities: to the Dodgers for Brad Penny, to the A’s for Joe Blanton, or to the Mets for a package of young guys. Olney didn’t bring up the White Sox, but there could be an excellent fit. The Sox could use Rios in center in 2007, and perhaps shift him back to right in ’08 if Jermaine Dye leaves.
By Tim Dierkes | at
The Los Angeles Times’ Steve Henson believes that Brad Penny is the Dodger starter most likely to be traded because of his temper problems and awful second half. On the plus side, Penny is on the right side of 30, has a favorable contract, and started the All-Star Game this year.
Henson names the Blue Jays as a fit since J.P. Ricciardi is a fan and the Jays still need to acquire a starting pitcher. Penny is signed at a below-market price – $7.5MM in ’07, $8.5MM in ’08, and an $8.75MM club option in ’09. Penny could be part of a package for Vernon Wells, but the Dodgers might need to contribute a prospect in a trade.
Would the Dodgers trade for Wells and then try to shift him to right field despite his fine defense in center? Wells has played 16 games in right in his career, most recently in 2002. This seems like the only reasonable solution as Juan Pierre and Luis Gonzalez can’t handle right field.
This all assumes the Jason Schmidt signing is official, which the St. Louis Post-Dispatch is not ready to concede.
Ken Davidoff of Newsday mentions that Mark Hendrickson could be a trade candidate for L.A. on the low end. He says Hendrickson could wind up with the Cubs.
By Tim Dierkes | at
According to MLB.com, the Dodgers have signed left fielder Luis Gonzalez to a one-year, $7MM deal. This one had been rumored all day.
With the signing, L.A.’s outfield appears set. It features Gonzo in left, Juan Pierre in center, and Andre Ethier in right. Sound good? It’s quite mediocre. Let’s compare the trio to the league averages from 2006.
Left field NL average: .277/.359/.478
Luis Gonzalez: .273/.357/.447
Center field NL average: .264/.335/.418
Juan Pierre: .292/.330/.388
Right field NL average: .268/.345/.453
Andre Ethier: .308/.365/.477
Looking at Ethier’s second half, I’d say there’s a good chance the Dodgers are below average offensively at all three outfield positions in 2007. And it’s not like these guys are Gold Glovers.
By Tim Dierkes | at
According to MLB, Jason Schmidt is headed to Los Angeles to join all of Ned Colletti’s other acquisitions. The deal is reported as 3 years, $47 million. Sounds like LA waited to make their final bid until they knew they were out of the running for Greg Maddux, who is close to a deal with the Padres.
This gives the Dodgers a fantastic rotation: Schmidt, Derek Lowe, and Brad Penny at the top, followed by Randy Wolf and one of Chad Billingsley, Mark Hendrickson, Brett Tomko, and a few other possibilities. That, of course, would change quite a bit if Penny is included in a deal for Manny Ramirez.
By Jeff Sackmann, Brew Crew Ball
By Tim Dierkes | at
Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus is at the Winter Meetings, and filing reports daily. Best of all, his notes today are free:
The specific Manny Ramirez deal offered by the Dodgers that the Red Sox turned down was for Jonathan Broxton and Andy LaRoche. Sounds like it would take one more player (or an equivalent starter instead of Broxton) to get the deal done. Either that, or the Sox are just showing Manny how valuable he is, and how much they love him. I get the feeling that the Red Sox and Manny are like a Hollywood couple–let’s say Pam Anderson and Kid Rock–and all the troubles aren’t real, they’re just a way of keeping everybody’s name in the newspaper. All the time.
The Rangers are in on Mike Piazza. Anybody else think that Jon Daniels’s strategy is to bid on every single player Billy Beane shows interest in, driving up the price and making it impossible for Billy to acquire players? He did it with Frank Thomas before Thomas signed with the Blue Jays; maybe he’ll jump into the Alan Embree negotiations next.
Will also prints the idea that Barry Bonds would be well-served by waiting until May to start playing. Like Roger Clemens did last year, he could pick the team that looks best, and he wouldn’t suffer through a month of intensive coverage in March.
By Jeff Sackmann, Brew Crew Ball
By Tim Dierkes | at
Hadn’t heard much about Takashi Saito, but apparently the Dodgers will have a deal hammered out with him by week’s end. Saito posted one of the best seasons ever by a Japanese pitcher in 2006.
In addition, L.A. is close to signing Mike Lieberthal as a backup catcher.
By Tim Dierkes | at
As has been speculated for some time, the Padres are close to signing Greg Maddux. Ken Rosenthal has the scoop; he describes the likely signing as a "significant blow to the Dodgers."
Maddux turns 41 next April. Overall in 2006 he won 15 games with a 4.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 3.2 K/BB. The Professor has reached 199 or more innings every season since 1988. He is one of a kind.
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