Latest On Hector Olivera, Yoan Moncada
We already took a peek in this morning at the Cuban market, but the news keeps coming. Here’s the latest on the two most touted position players available (or soon to be):
- Two executives who spoke with Hall of Fame journalist Peter Gammons indicated that the market for Hector Olivera looks rather strong (Twitter link). One predicted that Olivera would attain a $45MM to $50MM guarantee, while the other (from a team with interest) guessed that the 29-year-old infielder would reach the $65MM to $70MM range. We have heard reports of Olivera seeking that kind of guarantee, but it is interesting to see that some big league front office people see it as a likely outcome.
- We heard earlier today that the Dodgers continue to have interest in Olivera and would plan to use him at third if they end up signing him.
- Yoan Moncada remains most likely to sign with the Yankees or Dodgers, Ben Badler of Baseball America writes. The Padres are the third most likely landing spot, in Badler’s estimation, with the benefit of having not apparently made commitments that would need to be broken with next year’s July 2 class. Also still in the mix are the Red Sox and Tigers. Of course, the level of interest in the latter two teams, especially, remains unclear. In particular, Detroit is “not that serious” about going after Moncada, per Tony Paul of the Detroit News, who adds via Twitter that the team has not been in contact lately with Moncada’s camp.
- Notably, however, Badler adds that the Cubs and Rangers are “not out of the race” and are being aggressive in their pursuit of Moncada. Both teams would need to convince him to wait until July 2 to sign, which seems unlikely at this point.
Cuba Notes: Yoilan Serce, Olivera, Dodgers, D’Backs
There’s another middle infielder name to be aware of, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (Twitter links) and Ben Badler of Baseball America (via Twitter). Yoilan Serce, 27, will put on a showcase tomorrow in Florida. The second baseman owns an attractive .325/.395/.468 slash in his nine-year run in Cuba, but his power numbers dipped significantly over the past two seasons, with his slugging percentage coming in shy of .400 for the first time in his career. If you want an early look at Serce, check the second link to Sanchez’s Twitter account above to watch a few BP cuts.
Here are a few more notes on the thriving market for Cuban ballplayers:
- Should the Dodgers land infielder Hector Olivera, as some have suggested is likely, the plan would almost certainly be to use him at third base, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports report. Los Angeles would need to figure out a role or a trade for incumbent Juan Uribe in that scenario. The difficulty with stashing Uribe on the bench, of course, is that his value is tied up primarily in his glove at the hot corner. While he probably would have drawn some interest after a strong 2014, it is not clear whether there are many obvious suitors at this point.
- As others have suggested, and Rosenthal explains, there are good reasons to think that the teams that have already blown past their international bonus pool allocations will be the ones to make most of the significant investments in young Cuban talent over the coming months. Alternatively, teams that have yet to incur the significant penalties for going well over their spending allotment are waiting to see if they can land multiple players so as to make it worthwhile.
- The Diamondbacks, for instance, already signed Yoan Lopez and now have interest in second baseman Andy Ibanez, per the report. Sources also tell Rosenthal that Arizona is out of cash, however.
Dodgers Seek To Acquire Additional Reliever
The Dodgers are still working to pick up an arm for the bullpen, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. It is not clear from the report what sort of pitcher, or means of acquisition, Los Angeles is contemplating.
As things stand, the Dodgers already figure to open with a substantially re-worked pen. Among relievers with over twenty appearances for the team last year, only Kenley Jansen, J.P. Howell, and Brandon League are set to return. (Pedro Baez and Paco Rodriguez fell just shy of that arbitrary line.)
The team looks reasonably well-stocked on the right side, especially after adding David Aardsma and Sergio Santos on minor league pacts. Los Angeles had already dealt for Joel Peralta, Chris Hatcher, and Juan Nicasio earlier in the offseason. The same could probably be said with regard to lefties, as Howell is supplemented by a range of options including Rodriguez, David Huff, Adam Liberatore, and Ryan Buchter.
Of course, though there seems to be a fair amount of depth, there is almost always room for improvement in the bullpen. And it is worth noting that projections are not exactly in love with the present group. There are relatively few quality free agent arms remaining, though there are several with obvious appeal and the trade route is always possible.
Updates On The Top Cuban Free Agents
Yoan Moncada, Hector Olivera and Yadier Alvarez represent the top three names on the Cuban market right now, with Andy Ibanez ranking as perhaps the fourth-most intriguing option from the island. Both Moncada and Ibanez are eligible to sign at any time, while Olivera is still awaiting MLB’s clearance. Alvarez is the furthest from signing, as he’s yet to establish residency in another country, which must be completed before he can begin the process of getting cleared.
There’s been a quite a bit written on each of these four of late, so we’ll look at each on a case-by-case basis within this post. All information is courtesy of this excellent and comprehensive piece from MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez unless otherwise noted.
Yoan Moncada
Moncada has yet to receive a formal offer, Sanchez writes, but he’s worked out privately for the Cubs, D-backs, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Rays, Tigers and Brewers, and there could be other private workouts to come. Some scouts are a bit skeptical of Moncada’s ability to hit from the right side of the plate, but the belief is that he won’t require a lengthy stint in the minors before being ready for the big leagues.
Sanchez notes that any team that signs Moncada would have until July 15 to pay the overage tax on what will be a historic bonus, and that bonus can be paid out in installments over the next three years. So, while shelling out the tax due to the league in one lump sum may be onerous for smaller-market clubs like the Padres, the timeline on that payment is at least pushed back a ways.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports recently spoke to multiple executives regarding Moncada’s potential bonus, and while one estimated that the bonus alone could reach $50MM, others have expressed some skepticism at the numbers that have been thrown around. Rosenthal spoke to execs that are clearly on both ends of the Moncada spectrum, as one estimated a $30MM maximum bonus, with something in the range of $20MM being more likely. Of course, that would still shatter the current record, held by Yoan Lopez ($8.25MM).
Digging further into the Moncada market, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune spoke with Moncada’s agent, David Hastings, who iterated once again that he hopes to have Moncada in camp for Spring Training. Said Hastings of that goal: “Certainly that’s not all within our power, as we have to wait for teams to make a commitment, and we have to choose the team we think best suits my player. But hopefully we’re down to the final stages of the process and we can begin the contract phase.” Hastings added that he wants to give as many as teams as possible the opportunity to bid on his client, so the volume of private workouts Moncada has attended isn’t exactly surprising. Lin characterizes the Padres as a potentially “unlikely, if not improbable destination” for Moncada. The Dodgers and Yankees remain the favorites, per Sanchez.
Hector Olivera
The 29-year-old Olivera, who turns 30 in April, is said to be seeking a five- or six-year pact along the lines of the contracts signed by Yasmany Tomas (six years, $68.5MM with a year-four opt-out) and Rusney Castillo (seven years, $72.5MM), Sanchez writes. (Remember that Oliver’s age and professional experience make him exempt from international spending limitations.) A recent report by Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs depicts that as highly unlikely; McDaniel noted that concerns over Olivera’s age and a blood clot disorder (thrombosis) may limit his contract to three years, or potentially four, if multiple clubs become aggressive. He did concede that something around $10MM annually could be possible.
Sanchez writes that the 6’2″ Olivera is in the best shape of his career and has “wowed” in open showcases and private workouts, leading many to believe he could hit 15 to 20 homers annually.
Were Olivera younger, I’d be more inclined to believe that he could command something in the vicinity of the Tomas and Castillo deals, but I personally can’t envision that for a player of his age. Tomas will be younger than Olivera is right now when his six-year contract expires, and Castillo’s deal runs through just his age-32 season. A six-year pact for Olivera would carry through his age-35 campaign, so despite having seemingly impressive power for a second baseman (he can also play third), those goals seem far-fetched.
Lin notes that the Padres also have some interest in Olivera and may turn their sights his way if they’re unable to land Moncada. Padres pro scouting director/senior adviser Logan White attended Olivera’s final showcase in the Dominican Republic last week, per Lin.
Though Olivera isn’t yet cleared to sign, Sanchez hears that he could sign within 24 hours of being declared a free agent. The Mariners, Braves and Dodgers are the most likely landing spots for Olivera, per Sanchez, who also lists the Yankees and Padres as interested clubs. Clearly, Seattle is an odd fit, given the presence of Robinson Cano and the recently extended Kyle Seager. Perhaps, however, the Mariners would have interest in using Olivera in a corner outfield spot or in some form of super utility capacity.
Yadier Alvarez
One high-ranking NL official told Sanchez that Alvarez was the best 18-year-old pitcher he’s ever seen following a showcase in which he touched 98 mph on the radar gun and also showed a plus slider and above-average changeup. Scouts to whom Sanchez has spoke believe he could eventually become a No. 2 starter. One international scouting director also told Sanchez that given Alvarez’s age and lower asking price, he prefers the right-hander to Moncada.
The Dodgers, D-Backs, Rockies, Nationals, Blue Jays, Padres, A’s, Cardinals, Twins and Brewers are all interested, per Sanchez, with the D-Backs and Nationals as the likeliest destinations at the moment. However, Alvarez is still early on in the process, so those seem the most likely to change of any of Sanchez’s likely destinations.
Andy Ibanez
Ibanez, 21, has drawn comps to Omar Infante, Howie Kendrick, Miguel Cairo and Placido Polanco from scouts, Sanchez writes, although he’s probably a couple of years away from contributing in the Majors. As other reports have indicated, Ibanez’s tools don’t blow scouts away, but he does have Major League potential. Sanchez lists the Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, D-Backs, Brewers, Mariners, and Padres as interested parties, with the Yankees, Dodgers and Padres as the likeliest landing spots.
Dodgers To Sign David Aardsma
Right-hander David Aardsma has signed with the Dodgers, the pitcher himself tweeted today. As MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick writes, Aardsma will be in Major League Spring Training as a non-roster invitee looking to secure a spot in the team’s bullpen. Aardsma is represented by TWC Sports.
Aardsma, formerly the closer for the Mariners (he saved 69 games in Seattle from 2009-10), spent the 2014 season with the Cardinals, working to an excellent 1.46 ERA with 38 strikeouts against 18 walks in 37 minor league innings. As Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports recently noted, Aardsma has re-worked his mechanics and seen improved velocity as a result. Last week, I tweeted that Aardsma’s velocity reached 92 mph in his final bullpen session, which was attended by 18 scouts.
A groin injury ultimately ended Aardsma’s 2014 campaign and halted his chances of making an impact with the Cardinals’ bullpen, but 33-year-old does bring some upside to L.A. if healthy. Over his past 161 2/3 innings in the Majors, Aardsma has a 3.28 ERA with 166 strikeouts against 79 walks. He’ll look to force his way into a mix of arms that includes closer Kenley Jansen as well as setup men J.P. Howell, Brandon League and Joel Peralta. Other candidates for the Dodger ‘pen include Paco Rodriguez, Carlos Frias, Pedro Baez, Juan Nicasio and Chris Hatcher.
Minor Moves: Rosenberg, Troncoso, Borbon
Here are some recent minor league transactions, all from Baseball America’s Matt Eddy unless otherwise cited…
- The Dodgers signed right-hander B.J. Rosenberg to a minor league contract. The 29-year-old owns a 5.72 ERA, 8.3 K/9 and 1.73 K/BB rate over 56 2/3 career innings, all with the Phillies from 2012-14.
- The Dodgers also signed Ramon Troncoso, bringing the right-hander back for a second stint with the club. Troncoso posted a 3.92 ERA, 2.07 K/BB rate and 6.4 K/9 over 197 1/3 relief innings for L.A. from 2008-11, highlighted by a 2009 season that saw him notch a 2.72 ERA over 82 2/3 IP. He last appeared in the bigs with the White Sox in 2013 and Troncoso spent last season with the Royals’ Triple-A affiliate.
- The Orioles re-signed outfielder Julio Borbon to a new minor league deal. After being picked off the Cubs roster in the minor league Rule 5 draft last winter, Borbon hit .288/.342/.356 with 34 steals in 44 chances over 512 plate appearances for Triple-A Norfolk in 2014. Borbon, the 35th overall pick of the 2007 amateur draft, last played in the majors with the Cubs in 2013 and he owns a career .272/.318/.347 slash line over 863 PA with Chicago and Texas.
- The Reds re-signed catcher Lou Marson. The 28-year-old first joined the Reds on a minor league deal last May but was limited to just seven Double-A games due to injuries. Marson slashed .219/.309/.299 over 882 career PA for the Phillies and Indians between 2008-13.
- The Cubs re-signed longtime farmhand Jonathan Mota. The infielder has spent his entire 10-year pro career in Chicago’s farm system, posting a .258/.317/.362 career slash line.
Quick Hits: Luhnow, Coke, Reed, Bridich, Phillies
MLBTR sends our condolences to the family and colleagues of Alison Gordon, who passed away today at age 72. Gordon covered the Blue Jays for the Toronto Star from 1979 to 1983, becoming the first woman to work as a full-time beat writer covering an MLB club, as well as the first female member of the Baseball Writers Association Of America. The Star’s Brendan Kennedy has a fuller examination of Gordon’s career and her influence on countless female sportswriters.
Some news items from around the game…
- GM Jeff Luhnow said the Astros could add “perhaps another reliever but not another starter at this point,” Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports (via Twitter). The Astros added to their rotation depth earlier today by signing Roberto Hernandez, and the team could be closing in on a deal with left-handed reliever Joe Thatcher.
- The Rangers are another team with a “strong interest” in Thatcher, as well as another lefty bullpen arm in Phil Coke, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo reports (Twitter link). Coke recently threw for Texas.
- The arbitration hearing between Addison Reed and the Diamondbacks is scheduled for Friday unless the two sides can reach an agreement before then, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports.
- Rockies GM Jeff Bridich discusses the team’s offseason and his own hiring in an interview with Woody Paige and Les Shapiro of the Denver Post’s Sports Show (video link).
- Critics may claim the Phillies haven’t done enough to move their high-priced veterans this offseason, though Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News feels the Phils have a right to be cautious given the scope of their rebuild.
- “Patience,” is how a Phillies executive responded when asked by FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal if the club was frustrated by the lack of quality offers for Cole Hamels. Both Rosenthal and the executive feel more trade opportunities could open up as teams’ needs change due to Spring Training injuries.
- The Blue Jays and Indians don’t appear to be in on any of Francisco Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano or Joba Chamberlain, ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden writes. The Tribe has less of a pressing need at the back of their bullpen given Cody Allen‘s emergence last season, while the Jays may also not specifically be looking for closing help, though they are looking at bullpen upgrades.
- The Dodgers‘ hiring of Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi to run the front office is the top transaction of the 2014-15 offseason, Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron opines. Three other Dodgers moves appear in Cameron’s list of the winter’s top 10 moves, and he calls them “probably the scariest organization in baseball” now that their financial resources have been augmented by Friedman/Zaidi’s creative maneuvers.
International Notes: Alvarez, Olivera, Moncada
Cuban right-hander Yadier Alvarez has quickly become one of the most talked-about prospects on the international market, and the buzz among scouts, per Yahoo’s Jeff Passan (on Twitter), is that the Phillies, Dodgers and Diamondbacks are expected to heavily pursue the 18-year-old. In a recent workout in the Dominican Republic, Alvarez showed 93-to-97 mph heat, and as Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs has shown in posting video, he also features a promising slider. A previous report noted that the Twins had their VP of player personnel and other scouts watch Alvarez also, though their specific level of interest remains unclear.
Here’s more from the international front…
- The Angels are looking at Cuban second baseman Hector Olivera, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports (Twitter link). It’s unclear how serious the Halos’ interest is at this juncture, Fletcher cautions, but certainly their long-term outlook at second base is hazy at best. Grant Green, Josh Rutledge and Johnny Giavotella will compete for reps at the keystone this season, but the Angels could benefit from adding an MLB-ready (or close to it) second baseman. Then again, the Angels have persistently refused to make moves that would put them over the luxury tax threshold, and Olivera is expected by teams to seek as much as $12MM annually.
- Yoan Moncada worked out for the Dodgers in Florida today, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. A number of the Dodgers’ top executives were present to get a first-hand look at the 19-year-old infielder. The Dodgers are said to be one of the most serious suitors for Moncada, along with the Yankees, Red Sox and possibly the Padres.
- The Dodgers are reportedly wary about limiting themselves for future international signings by making a big splash for Moncada, though Baseball America’s Ben Badler opined (via Twitter) that he wouldn’t be surprised if L.A. signed both Moncada and Olivera. I agree with Badler — if the Dodgers are willing to exceed the international pool limit anyway, they might as well load up on international talent now since they’ll be virtually unable to make any such signings until June 2017.
- If Moncada was eligible for the 2015 draft, he’d be a strong candidate to be the first overall pick, MLB.com’s Jim Callis notes in his comparison of Moncada to current top infield prospects. “His overall 65 grade would place him among the top dozen prospects in baseball right now, and it’s arguably a bit conservative, because teams haven’t had the chance to evaluate him against much quality competition,” Callis writes.
Yoan Moncada To Field Offers Over Next Two Weeks
TODAY: Hastings divulged some further details of Moncada’s plans to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick. “I don’t have any more plans [for workouts] after next week,” said Hastings. “I’m looking at around the 23rd of this month to have all the input we need to make a decision on where he’ll start — and hopefully end — his professional career.” Moncada is expected to participate in four or five more private workouts before fielding final offers and making his decision.
YESTERDAY: Cuban phenom Yoan Moncada will field offers over the coming two weeks and hopes to make a decision shortly thereafter, agent David Hastings told Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times today. “I’m hoping, certainly, that by the end of next week, we’ll have a much clearer picture of where he will sign,” said Hastings.
Hastings said he’d like to get Moncada into a club’s Spring Training camp as soon as possible. Pitchers and catchers are set to begin reporting for clubs over the next week to 10 days, with position players soon to follow. As such, a two week timeline would give Moncada a chance to be with a team if not at the onset of camp, then at least soon after.
The Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and possibly the Padres are thought to be the major players for Moncada, who could command a bonus of $30-40MM, which would come with a nearly identical tax penalty, as Moncada’s record-shattering bonus will blow any team’s international bonus pool out of the water. In total, when factoring in the 100 percent tax applied to every dollar spent over the pool, Moncada could cost $70-80MM total (though the tax, of course, goes to the league and not the player).
Hernandez writes that the Dodgers aren’t as concerned with the total cost as they are with the limitations that signing Moncada would place on them in future signing periods. Whichever team signs Moncada will, in addition to the aforementioned overage tax, be restricted from signing an international amateur for more than $300K in each of the following signing periods. As Hernandez notes, the new Dodgers front office is keen on rebuilding a farm system that became depleted under previous ownership.
In other Moncada news — or rather, speculation — Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports wonders if the Padres can truly be serious players for the 19-year-old infielder (All Twitter links). As Rosenthal points out, the overage tax must be paid to the league in one lump sum, and San Diego ownership may struggle to produce that kind of cash so immediately. (Rosenthal also notes that the league has yet to determine where the tax will be spent, but it could be allocated toward international development.)
For those who haven’t been following the Moncada saga, the switch-hitting infielder was recently declared a free agent and eligible to sign with MLB teams. An elite five-tool prospect, many feel that Moncada would go first overall in the 2015 draft were he eligible. His tools have been likened to those of Robinson Cano and Chase Utley (in his prime), and there are those who feel he will be better than countrymen Yasiel Puig, Jose Abreu, Yoenis Cespedes and Jorge Soler. Baseball America’s Ben Badler recently wrote that he’d rank Moncada in the top 7-12 prospects in all of baseball upon signing, while MLB.com’s Jim Callis said he’d rank “among the top 10 or 15” (Twitter link) and Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel estimated he’d rank in the 5-12 range.
International Notes: Balfour, Moncada, Olivera, Alvarez, Kang
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tells the emotional story of Rays reliever Grant Balfour and his father David, who is battling pancreatic cancer. Baseball Australia’s Hall of Fame will induct the younger Balfour even before his playing career is over so that his father — a notable figure in the Australian game — can be there to participate. The piece is well worth your time.
Here are the latest reports on the international scene:
- The Diamondbacks are among the teams expected to watch touted young Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada later this week, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports. Arizona has already gone well over its international bonus pool and has been one of the most active teams on the international market. The Cubs, too, will take a look at him (as have many other, previously-reported teams), though they would be unable to offer him more than a $250K bonus unless he waits until after July 2 to sign.
- Hector Olivera drew hundreds of scouts to his final public showcase, as Ben Badler of Baseball America reports on Twitter, and seemingly did not disappoint. Per Badler, the Dodgers, Giants, Athletics, and Padres were well-represented in attendance. You’ll want to read through Badler’s Twitter feed (some earlier portion of which was compiled here by Baseball America) for more information on Olivera’s impressive display as well as some other notes from the international showcase.
- Right-hander Yadier Alvarez, just 18, is the latest Cuban citizen drawing buzz. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweeted recently that he is pushing a high-90s fastball, and today Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs reports (Twitter links) that his buzz “checks out.” Not only does the young righty work in the mid-90s and touch even higher, he has a “more than usable” change to go with it. That will likely result in a big payday, per McDaniel, who also notes in a tweet that it may take a month or two for him to be cleared to sign.
- Former KBO superstar and current Pirates infielder Jung-ho Kang might just be capable of putting up huge numbers in the big leagues, according to the analysis of Dan Farnsworth of Fangraphs. Farnsworth breaks down Kang’s “upper-echelon swing” and compares it to some notable MLB power bats, concluding that the Korean ballplayer could break out with a .280+ batting average and 25 or more home runs in his first MLB season.