Quick Hits: Angels Payroll, Hamels, Olivera
Let’s round up a few stray notes from the day:
- After avoiding arbitration with Matt Joyce today, the Angels appear set to enter the spring with a MLB payroll of a shade under $145MM, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez writes. That is about $10MM shy of last year’s starting point, leaving the team with additional luxury tax space (Gonzalez estimates a $174MM payroll for those purposes) that the club will be willing to put towards any needs that become apparent over the course of the season.
- Potentially joining the Halos with interesting summer plans are the Phillies, who are increasingly likely to hold onto ace Cole Hamels, as Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reports. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. reiterated previous statements that he expects Hamels to enter camp with the team, adding that he “expect[s] him to be our Opening Day starter.” The Padres, Rangers, Dodgers, and Cardinals are all said to have been in touch recently on Hamels, but while all are clear of Hamels’s no-trade protection, they also each have good reasons not to be aggressive.
- Hector Olivera‘s representatives have indicated that he will put on his final open showcase this coming Wednesday, Ben Badler of Baseball America tweets. That obviously could be a prelude to an intensification of his market, particularly with Spring Training fast approach. As Badler notes, Olivera is still not a free agent, but is expected to be so declared in short order.
More Reactions To The James Shields Signing
We already took a look at one group of opinions and analysis coming out of the Padres’ signing of James Shields, but the reactions keep coming. Here’s more:
- The Shields camp made a strategic error by shooting too high, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports writes. After initially asking for a contract in the realm of five to six years at $120MM to $125MM, his team did not move down off that ask soon enough in the wake of Jon Lester‘s signing, says Passan. I do think it worth adding that four years and $75MM at a preferred geographical spot is far from a terrible downside scenario — even in the context of the modern free agent world — and that ultimate price could well have justified an aggressive strategy, depending upon Shields’s own particular preferences and risk tolerance.
- Quality, durable arms of the relatively recent past provide at least some insight into how Shields might produce over the term of his deal, as Ben Lindbergh of Grantland writes. Among pitchers with age 29-32 seasons similar to those Shields just put up, the outcomes over the next four years ranged from 900+ innings of Greg Maddux to less than 300 frames of Frank Viola. On the whole, the (rather small) group lost one-third of its total innings while putting up less than half the total wins above replacement as against the previous four-year run. Though there is obviously plenty of risk, Lindbergh concludes that, in Shields’s case at least, it seems a reasonable-enough outlook to warrant the commitment.
- San Diego has a legitimate abundance of starting pitching and could use it to make a trade, now or over the summer, opines ESPN.com’s Keith Law (Insider post). That flexibility is as important as the upgrade that Shields represents, in Law’s view. Of course, bolstering the MLB roster through trade is not the only hypothetical outcome, and Padres GM A.J. Preller may face an even sterner challenge if the team he has compiled fails to compete, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal writes.
- That the Cubs made a legitimate, late run at Shields is revealing, ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers writes. It shows that the team has cash to spend, that Shields likely would have been pursued harder if Chicago hadn’t landed Lester, and that the front office is prepared to act boldly when opportunity arises.
- The Dodgers considered a run at Shields but were never going to approach the price range that Shields ultimately commanded, Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports on Twitter. Los Angeles “was looking for something more cost effective,” says Olney.
Reactions To And Fallout From The James Shields Signing
The James Shields saga has finally drawn to a close, with the right-hander agreeing to a four-year deal to pitch near his southern California home as a member of the vastly reshaped Padres. Shields will reportedly take home $75MM, and his contract also contains a club option. Shields rumors have dominated the past week, with multiple teams rumored to be involved. Here are some reactions from around the baseball world as well as some details on other offers that Shields had available…
- Shields did not take the best offer that was presented to him, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter link). One team made the right-hander a four-year, $80MM contract offer. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune backs that up (also on Twitter) by noting that the Padres’ offer was “one of the highest,” adding that he had heard Shields was willing to take a small discount to pitch in San Diego.
- That team wasn’t the Cubs, who topped out at three years and a vesting option, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (on Twitter). Chicago wasn’t willing to guarantee Shields a contract in the mid-$70MM range after spending $175MM on Jon Lester and Jason Hammel already this offseason.
- The Marlins also offered Shields a three-year pact and a vesting option, Heyman tweets.
- The Marlins realized they had to bow out on Saturday afternoon once the bidding exceeded $70MM, reports MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro (Twitter links). Miami was concerned not only with blowing up its future payroll but also with forfeiting the No. 12 pick in the draft — the top unprotected pick this year. The Padres, of course surrendered the very next pick in the draft, as they’d been slotted 13th overall. Frisaro adds that Shields monitored the Marlins all winter and was impressed by their direction, but the Padres simply made a stronger offer.
- Olney gets a different sense of the Marlins’ level of involvement, as he tweets that some are of the belief that the Marlins actually made the highest offer to Shields.
- The Cubs‘ guarantee was around $60MM, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. Sherman adds that Shields’ camp pursued the Dodgers far more than the team pursued him, and the Blue Jays hadn’t spoken to Shields in about two weeks when he agreed to terms.
- Also from Sherman’s piece, he opines that while Shields is unquestionably a financial risk — the Friars will be paying him and Kemp roughly $36MM per year beginning in 2016 (the $18MM received from the Dodgers offsets much of the 2015 cost) — he was too good of a deal to pass up. Shields was still cheaper, financially speaking, than Cole Hamels, and he also didn’t cost the prospects Hamels would have required. He also provides leadership and protects them somewhat when Ian Kennedy and Andrew Cashner hit the open market. And, with Kennedy, Carlos Quentin, Justin Upton, Will Venable, Joaquin Benoit, Cory Luebke, Shawn Kelley, Brandon Morrow and Josh Johnson all potentially off the books next winter, the team has some financial flexibility.
- Fangraphs’ Mike Petriello writes that while the addition of Shields is an unequivocal boost to the Padres’ postseason hopes, their downfall very well could be a patchwork group of infielders. The Padres’ infield projects at just 5.6 WAR, based on the Steamer projection system, and Petriello looks at the past five seasons’ worth of data to see the correlation between infield WAR and overall wins by a team. Unsurprisingly, the outlook is bleak, with only the 2012 Orioles and A’s receiving a lower WAR contribution and still reaching the playoffs. Of course, as Petriello notes, there’s reason to be optimistic for a rebound from Jedd Gyorko, and there’s still some upside in Yonder Alonso and Will Middlebrooks. The shortstop tandem of Alexi Amarista and Clint Barmes is likely to be a black hole offensively, however.
- Peter Gammons is a bit skeptical of the Padres’ win-now tactics (Twitter links). As Gammons points out, while the team has created some buzz and bolstered its 2015 hopes, by 2017 they’ll have a 32-year-old Matt Kemp and 36-year-old Shields earning significant salaries, and they’ve either traded away their recent first-round picks or watched them flame out. The Padres have just two of their first rounders from 2009-14 still in the system in Hunter Renfroe and Cory Spangenberg, and they now don’t have a first-rounder in 2015. Trea Turner and Joe Ross were in the Wil Myers trade, Max Fried was used in the Justin Upton trade, Karsten Whitson didn’t sign (Spangenberg was selected as compensation the following year) and Donavan Tate was out of baseball last season. The team does still have some supplemental first-rounders in the system, while seventh-rounder Matt Wisler and second-rounder Austin Hedges have become Top 100 prospects.
- Shields provides the Padres with some surprisingly much-needed innings, write Mark Simon and Justin Havens of ESPN. Though the Friars are typically thought of as having a strong pitching staff, their rotation has ranked 22nd or 23rd in innings in each of the past three seasons.
West Notes: Cashner, Diamondbacks
Single-franchise players like Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, and Chipper Jones are increasingly rare in baseball, writes Matt Yallof of MLB.com. The current longest tenured player is Chase Utley with parts of 13 seasons in Philadelphia. Former teammate Jimmy Rollins was traded to the Dodgers this offseason after 15 years in Philly. Another newly acquired Dodger – Howie Kendrick – was with the Angels for nine seasons. L.A. also shipped out a nine-year veteran in Matt Kemp. Here’s more from the West.
- Padres starter Andrew Cashner would like to remain in San Diego, tweets Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Per Cashner, “I’ve let the front office know that. But I think that’s something that’s up to them.” Lin also tweets that Cashner and the Padres held brief extension talks last spring, but they didn’t progress.
- The Diamondbacks appear to have a 12 pitcher battle royale planned for spring training, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Josh Collmenter and Jeremy Hellickson will probably open the season in the rotation, but their jobs are not guaranteed. Meanwhile, 10 other pitchers will compete for the final three openings. Of those, Trevor Cahill and Vidal Nuno have the most major league experience. Chase Anderson, Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, and Robbie Ray received looks last season. Top prospect Archie Bradley will probably open the year in the minors. Other candidates include Andrew Chafin, Randall Delgado, and Daniel Hudson.
International Notes: Bell, Olivera, Moncada
Cuban first baseman/third baseman Yosvani Bell has been unblocked by the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control and Major League Baseball, making him free to sign with teams, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes (Twitter link). Bell, who is represented by Bryce Dixon (Johnny Cueto‘s agent), will host a showcase in San Pedro de Macoris in the Dominican Republic at month’s end, per Rojas. Bell also hosted a showcase for teams back in July, when he was 23 years of age, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (on Twitter). There’s been very little written on Bell to this point, but MLBTR will of course keep readers apprised of reports on the corner infielder if they become more readily available.
Here’s the latest on a pair of international prospects that have had no shortage of ink dedicated to their names…
- The Dodgers still have legitimate reservations about going after Moncada given the high price he is expected to command, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick reports. The club’s ultimate interest level remains somewhat unclear, per the report, in spite of previous statements by GM Farhan Zaidi that the team would be “players” for Moncada “to the extent that our evaluation of him matches or exceeds where the market goes.”
Earlier Updates
- Hector Olivera was extremely impressive in a game setting at his second open showcase today, reports Ben Badler of Baseball America. The right-handed hitting, 29-year-old second baseman ripped a pair of home runs and also hit a double to the opposite field gap. Olivera split his time between second base and third base and also showed an above-average time in the 60-yard dash (6.65 seconds) prior to the game. The Dodgers had the most notable presence in attendance, per Badler, with VP of baseball operations Josh Byrnes among those in attendance. The D-Backs had their own VP of baseball operations, De Jon Watson, in attendance, and the Giants were well-represented, too. According to Badler, the Padres, Giants and Braves have all had their top scouts watching Olivera recently, and he’s also been seen by Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik and president Kevin Mather. (Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweeted last night, however, not to read too much into the Mariners’ presence at a workout; they were in the Dominican for organizational meetings at the time already.)
- The Brewers are interested in Yoan Moncada and will keep tabs on him, writes MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, though he notes that Milwaukee is not likely to sign the 19-year-old. The Brewers sent at least six people to watch Moncada in a private workout, including pro scouting director Zack Minasian, amateur scouting director Doug Reynolds and senior director of baseball operations Tom Flanagan, per McCalvy. However, GM Doug Melvin said that while the reports on Moncada were unsurprisingly positive, he didn’t want to tip his hand with other teams in negotiation.
- McCalvy also notes that while the Brewers are an unlikely landing spot, the team did make a six-year, $64MM offer to Jose Abreu prior to his contract with the White Sox, though the team had some concerns that it was used more as a bargaining chip. Of course, it has to be noted that being willing to offer a 26-year-old MLB-ready first baseman a sizable Major League deal certainly does not mean they’ll be comfortable offering a similar, if not larger sum to a 19-year-old prospect in the form of a signing bonus.
- The Giants feel that they are long shots in the Moncada sweepstakes, general manager Brian Sabean told reporters, including John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link). Some have speculated that the Giants would be in on Moncada after showing a willingness to spend on both Jon Lester and Pablo Sandoval but failing to secure either player this winter.
James Shields Rumors: Thursday
The market for James Shields is picking up steam, to say the least, with multiple reports indicating that he could decide upon a team before this weekend comes to a close. As of yesterday, the Marlins were still said to be in talks for Shields, with the Cubs “kicking the tires.” The Padres were indirectly connected to Shields, as reports had them seeking a top-end starter, though Shields was not mentioned by name.
Here are today’s Shields-related items…
- “The Padres…have to be considered favorites for” Shields, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. The fact that Shields lives in San Diego could indeed give the Padres the edge, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman writes.
- While the Padres are indeed “among the favorites” for Shields, Heyman reports that “a few other teams, including at least one surprise” are in contact with Shields’ camp. A person connected to the Cubs tells Heyman that Chicago could get involved in Shields’ market if his price falls significantly; the Cubs’ interest in Shields was first reported yesterday.
- The Blue Jays are “kicking the tires” on Shields, which is a surprise to Heyman given their payroll limitations. This isn’t the first time Toronto has been linked to Shields, though it remains to be seen if the Jays can create the financial space to sign Shields even at a lowered price tag.
Earlier Updates
- The Dodgers are currently focused on international stars Yoan Moncada and Hector Olivera and not Shields, tweets Hall of Fame journalist Peter Gammons. Many have speculated that the Dodgers could make a play based not only on their deep pockets but on the presence of former Rays GM Andrew Friedman atop the new L.A. baseball operations department.
- Multiple sources have told Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald that they do not expect the Marlins to sign Shields. One source characterized the chances as “zero percent.” For what it’s worth, others have also reported the chances as “zero,” only to have rumors of talks between the two sides resurface. Ultimately, however, it seems that the Fish are long shots. Shields’ reported desire to play for a team on the West Coast and the Marlins’ limited payroll are both detrimental factors.
- Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has been told by sources in recent weeks that the Cardinals “are not a team with interest.” As Goold outlines, the Cardinals may be wary not only of forfeiting a draft pick but of forfeiting the portion of their draft bonus pool that would go along with it. Based on last year’s slot figures, signing Shields would cost St. Louis 28.3 percent of its bonus pool.
Latest On Yoan Moncada’s Market
The news that 19-year-old Cuban phenom Yoan Moncada is now eligible to sign with Major League teams launched an outpouring of speculation, and we may not have to wait too long for resolution to the situation, as the infielder tells MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez he hopes to sign in the near future. “My goal is to sign with a team soon, start training with them, and make it to the Major Leagues as fast as I can with whichever team that might be,” Moncada told Sanchez. Moncada could sign as soon as this month, according to Sanchez, who reminds that the infielder has already had private workouts for the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Rays, Tigers and Brewers. The first three teams listed are reportedly the heavy favorites to sign Moncada, though Sanchez notes that other teams will schedule private workouts now that Moncada is unblocked. He also adds that contract negotiations have intensified since news broke that he was cleared to sign.
Here are the latest updates on the market for Moncada, who has captured the intrigue of baseball fans around the world…
- Hall of Fame journalist Peter Gammons spoke to three different GMs whose teams have been previously connected to Moncada and was told that they are not pursuing him after all (Twitter link). The unnamed GMs each pointed to the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers as the favorites, although each warned to keep an eye on the Tigers as well.
- ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that there is an expectation among rival executives that the Athletics will make a serious run at Moncada, as they did with Yoenis Cespedes three offseasons ago.
- In a full article (ESPN Insider required/recommended), Olney writes that there is also a belief among execs that the Dodgers‘ financial restraint to this point in the offseason could make them more aggressive on Moncada, with some believing that they will ultimately land him. Olney adds that many execs feel the Red Sox‘ current surplus of Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Pablo Sandoval and Mookie Betts will limit their interest and limit how far the team is willing to stretch. As Olney puts it, Boston simply isn’t as desperate for Moncada as some of their competition.
Yoan Moncada Market Notes
With the evening’s news that prized young Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada is free to sign, additional information has begun to roll in. It isn’t hard to see why he has generated so much attention. As Ben Badler of Baseball America explains, Moncada may not have quite the certainty of an otherwise generally comparable prospect such as Corey Seager, but could reasonably be valued in the same range as — and, indeed, ahead of — a young player as heralded as Miguel Sano. That would make Moncada one of the best dozen or so pre-MLB properties in the game.
Here’s the latest:
- Moncada is expected to sign soon, reports MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez, although he does have workouts scheduled with individual teams through the middle of this month. The list of teams he has already worked out for does not appear to have been expanded upon from prior reports, with Sanchez noting (via Twitter) that the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Rays, Tigers, and Brewers have all had private looks.
- With Moncada now eligible to sign, and a long stretch remaining before the July 2 market flips over, Badler tweets that the Cubs and Rangers are probably out of the mix. Moncada could still theoretically wait to sign with one of those teams — each of which is currently prohibited from paying all but relatively small international signing bonuses for blowing their allotment in past seasons — but that seems rather unlikely.
- Some clubs believe the Dodgers are a “strong favorite” to add Moncada, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets. Los Angeles has made no secret of its intention to pursue the talented 19-year-old.
- Another expected front-runner, the Red Sox, have remained fairly tight-lipped about Moncada, as Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports.
- Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski confirmed that his club had expressed interest and held a workout for Moncada, but otherwise would only acknowledge that Moncada is a talented player, as James Schmehl of MLive.com reports.
NL West Notes: O’Brien, D-Backs, Padres, Grandal
By electing not to add a significant catcher to their ranks, the D-Backs are essentially giving prospect Peter O’Brien, acquired in last summer’s Martin Prado trade, a vote of confidence. J.J. Cooper of Baseball America isn’t so sure that’s a wise idea, and he explains his reasoning after speaking to several scouts from around the game. O’Brien’s large frame limits his agility behind the plate, causing him to struggle with receiving breaking balls to his right. He also has an inconsistent transfer motion when attempting to throw runners out, and while he’s caught 24 percent of base-stealers in his minor league career, he caught just three of 31 last year in Double-A. Cooper notes that few scouts believe he can catch long-term, and even fewer think he could do so in 2015. One pro scouting director to whom Cooper spoke said he’d yet to see a report from a single evaluator who thought O’Brien could be a big league regular behind the plate.
Here’s more on the D-Backs’ catching situation and the NL West…
- Fangraphs’ Mike Petriello also examined Arizona’s current supply of catchers (albeit, before the team signed Gerald Laird), noting that some teams wouldn’t be content with the current group competing for their backup job, let alone the starting job. However, the offensive loss may not be the biggest issue for the D-Backs, Petriello notes. Rather, the drop from Miguel Montero‘s excellent pitch framing could be significantly detrimental to pitchers such as Jeremy Hellickson, Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster. All are coming from organizations that have employed excellent framers (Christian Vazquez in Boston and Jose Molina in Tampa), and yet each has either struggled with command or struggled to match his peripherals. Petriello, like Cooper before him, wonders if the Snakes will truly take this group into camp or make an addition. Even after adding Laird to the mix, I find myself in the same boat.
- The Padres have “won the offseason,” MLB.com’s Richard Justice opines. While teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, Marlins, White Sox, Blue Jays and Mariners all got better, GM A.J. Preller’s nearly unprecedented roster overhaul has taken the Padres from baseball’s worst offense to legitimate NL West contenders, in Justice’s eyes. While the Red Sox may have made themselves a better all-around offense than San Diego, he notes, Boston already had the trio of David Ortiz, Mike Napoli and Dustin Pedroia in place and was therefore starting from a higher point. Preller’s moves have created expectations and excitement among a fan base that previously had been highly skeptical of the new regime.
- Yasmani Grandal feels that he can rebound with the Dodgers in 2015, he told reporters, including Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times, at this weekend’s fan festival. Grandal feels that a knee injury caused his overall production to plummet in 2014 and points to a strong winter ball showing — he hit .328/.469/.541 in 19 games — as evidence that his knee is “like it was before.” Grandal is open to any distribution of playing time with fellow backstop A.J. Ellis and said he’s already met with Ellis and manager Don Mattingly about the coming season. Ellis and Grandal both gave the same message to Mattingly, he tells Hernandez: “Whatever it takes to win.”
NL West Notes: Greinke, Rockies, Padres
You could say that Clint Barmes is something of a hipster. He signed his one-year, $1.6MM deal with the Padres on December 3rd – just before they became cool. “Being one of the earlier guys to sign over there, you hear from the GM that they’re going to try to make these trades and sign these guys,” Barmes said, according to Thomas Harding of MLB.com. “It happens every year. You hear a lot of that. But to have a guy do what he’s done has been pretty impressive. My agent said they were focusing on making some changes and bringing guys in. It’s definitely going to be exciting.” More from the NL West..
- Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke says that he hasn’t decided whether to opt out of his contract after the season, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times writes. The 31-year-old would forfeit three years and $71MM if he opts out, but the recent deals landed by Max Scherzer and Jon Lester indicate that he can likely make even more. Still, the hurler was very complimentary of the organization. “I do know I have really enjoyed L.A. I don’t think you could get a better organization. The owners are amazing. Our front office is, by reputation, the best – or at least in the top three in the game. Our coaching staff is great too. There’s not really any better options anywhere besides here,” Greinke said.
- Change is coming for the Rockies, but it’s not necessarily coming right now. Colorado could look quite different in 2016, as Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post writes. GM Jeff Bridich didn’t make major moves despite saying that he was “keeping his eyes and ears open” for potential deals involving everybody this winter, but those trades could go down this summer. Saunders writes that come August, it’s conceivable that the Rockies could be without Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, and Justin Morneau.
- It’s been a crazy offseason for the Padres and Dennis Lin of U-T San Diego ranked the biggest moves made by GM A.J. Preller. The acquisition of Matt Kemp takes the top spot, followed by the trades made for fellow outfielders Wil Myers and Justin Upton, respectively.