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Cardinals Notes: Coaches, Clapp, Ankiel, Wainwright, Offseason

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The Cardinals will face some changes in the coaching ranks, as third base coach Jose Oquendo has informed the team he will not return in 2019, president of baseball ops John Mozeliak announced to reporters Tuesday (links via Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Mark Saxon of The Athletic). Oquendo, who was offered the opportunity to return, will work with the club in Spring Training but will spend the bulk of the season away from the game with his family.

In Oquendo’s absence, bench coach Ron Warner is moving to third base coach. First base coach Oliver Marmol is taking the reins at bench coach, while hitting coach George Greer will be a minor league hitting coordinator moving forward. That leaves the Cards with a vacancy both at hitting coach and first base coach, and Goold notes that Triple-A manager Stubby Clapp is expected to be offered one of those two positions if he is not hired away from the team. Clapp, who has been quite successful in his current role with the Cardinals’ Memphis affiliate, is also a rumored candidate for the Blue Jays’ managerial post (though he has denied hearing from the Jays to this point).

More out of St. Louis…

  • Goold notes that Mozeliak plans to speak with Rick Ankiel about the former left-hander/outfielder’s desire to make a comeback in 2019. Ankiel announced back in August that he was planning on pursuing a return to the Majors as a relief pitcher. He told Yahoo’s Tim Brown that month that he has “nothing to lose” and feels that he’s “in a better place” than he was when his career on the mound was derailed by the yips nearly two decades ago. While Ankiel would be nothing more than a roll of the dice, Mozeliak did express a desire to improve the left-handed pitching in the Cardinals’ relief corps. Zach Britton and Andrew Miller headline this year’s crop of free-agent lefty relievers, though there are ample names beyond that pair (to say nothing of countless options on the trade market).
  • Details of Adam Wainwright’s contract to return to the Cardinals won’t become clear for a few weeks, but Mozeliak indicated (via Saxon) the venerable right-hander was “willing to bet on himself,” adding that the risks associated with the contract are low. Obviously, that indicates that the contract will come with a fairly small base salary. It’s already been reported that Wainwright’s contract will have both rotation- and bullpen-based incentives, so the team may not yet even have a determination on what his role will be in 2019. Mozeliak did note that the rotation, which is loaded with depth options, is “probably not going to be our focus of energy.”
  • Rather, Saxon notes, supplementing the offense seems to be a greater focus. The preference, Mozeliak implied, would be a left-handed bat, though he added that he “[doesn’t] think it has to be.” The longstanding head of baseball ops for the Cards firmly indicated that the team hasn’t given up on Dexter Fowler being able to bounce back, though he also wouldn’t make any declarative statements about Fowler’s role in 2019. Mozeliak called the positions filled by Yadier Molina (catcher), Paul DeJong (shortstop), Marcell Ozuna (left field) and Harrison Bader (center field) all “pretty certain,” and indicated that Matt Carpenter would be in the lineup as well, most likely at first base. Beyond that, Mozeliak emphasized that he’s been a “big advocate” for Kolten Wong and hopes the defensive stalwart can continue to improve.
  • As Goold notes, third base and right field seemed the two most plausible areas for upgrade based on Mozeliak’s comments. That’ll lead to no shortage of speculation tying the Cards to top free agents Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, though when asked about free agents, Mozeliak explained that he has “to be pragmatic and understand what that looks like” from a long-term vantage point.

Cardinals Notes: Ozuna, Gallegos, Norris, Martinez, Hicks

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Marcell Ozuna’s first season with the Cardinals has had its ups and downs, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch chronicled today, with a particular focus on the shoulder injury that has hampered Ozuna since last offseason. The Cardinals were undeterred by Ozuna’s shoulder issues when they traded for him, but increasingly recognized the effects the injury was having on his power output as he continued to turn in sluggish results. Ozuna finally relented to treatment in the form of a cortisone shot and a quick trip to the 10-day DL in late August. Since his return, Ozuna has performed much more in line with the team’s original expectations, hitting .324 with a .997 OPS in September. He’ll undergo further testing and strength training for the shoulder in the offseason, but presently, Ozuna is focused on the Cardinals hunt for the wild card and a potential one game playoff – likely against a division rival in Milwaukee or Chicago.
Here’s more recent news from the Redbirds…
  • The Cards recalled Giovanny Gallegos from Triple A today, the club announced and Joe Trezza of MLB.com tweeted. The 27-year-old reliever – whom you’ll recall was one of the arms acquired from the Yankees in the late-summer swap for Luke Voit – will be available out of the St. Louis bullpen. With the playoff race nearing its apex, Gallegos isn’t likely to see a lot of usage, but an extra arm never hurts this time of year.
  • Trezza also tweeted that Cards manager Mike Shildt expects Bud Norris (blister) to be available out out of the pen tonight. Norris was pulled in the 7th inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers last Sunday when the blister surfaced. Though the deposed closer has struggled at times this year, he figures to be an important piece of the puzzle in the final week. With the final six games against the division-rival Brewers and Cubs, there figure to be more than enough high-leverage, heart-pounding situations to go around – even if he’s not closing games.
  • In a separate piece from Goold, Cardinals president of baseball ops John Mozeliak confirms some items of interest about the club’s future bullpen. Namely, current closer Carlos Martinez will indeed return to the starting rotation next season. A tight rehab timeline, coupled with the team’s needs, prompted Martinez’s move to the pen late this year. While it has worked out quite well thus far, however, it seems more happy accident than long-term strategy.
  • Speaking of the late-inning mix, flame-throwing rookie Jordan Hicks will have no restrictions the rest of the way because of the built-in days off. Though he’s still roughly 25 innings shy of his total innings tally from last season, when he was pitching as a starter in the minors, Hicks has still been relied upon rather heavily in 2018. Pitching every couple of days is a different animal, as is the pressure the 22-year-old faces as a late-innings reliever in a pennant race. Regardless, Shildt will have unfettered access to his young fireballer as the Cardinals try to lock down a spot in the playoffs.
  • As Goold also covers, the Cardinals have no intention of altering their starting rotation for the final week of the season. It’ll be Austin Gomber, Jack Flaherty, and John Gant facing off against Milwaukee starting Monday.

Injury Notes: Stroman, Braves, Ozuna, Tropeano

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Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman “probably” won’t pitch again in 2018, manager John Gibbons told reporters today (Twitter links via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). He’s been slowed by a blister on his pitching hand of late and simply won’t have enough time to build back up for a return. Stroman last appeared on Sept. 3 — his only appearance since Aug. 17 — and lasted just 1 2/3 innings. If his season does indeed prove to be over, it’ll go down as a forgettable one for the righty. In 102 1/3 innings, Stroman has posted a dismal 5.54 ERA with 6.8 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9, though his elite ground-ball tendencies and a fluky low strand rate have led fielding-independent metrics to paint a more optimistic picture (3.91 FIP, 3.84 xFIP, 4.04 SIERA). Stroman will be arbitration-eligible for the third time this winter as a Super Two player and will earn a modest raise on this year’s $6.5MM salary. He’s controlled through the 2020 season.

Some more notable injury updates from around the league…

  • The NL East-leading Braves should have Arodys Vizcaino back in action on Friday of this week, per Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter links), but righty Jose Ramirez won’t pitch again this season. Vizcaino hasn’t pitched since mid-July due to a shoulder issue and was moved to the 60-day DL earlier this month when the Braves made a series of moves to accommodate September roster expansion. They’ll need to make a 40-man move to accommodate Vizcaino’s return; Ramirez, already on the 60-day DL with a shoulder problem of his own, won’t be that move. Meanwhile, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that third baseman Johan Camargo exited tonight’s game due to groin tightness. The team will likely have additional information available either after the game or tomorrow morning.
  • Mark Saxon of The Athletic takes a look at the shoulder troubles that have plagued Marcell Ozuna all season (subscription required). Saxon notes that Ozuna has had difficulty with day-to-day tasks such as taking off a sweatshirt in recent weeks and has played through discomfort all season. Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak again acknowledged that the team was aware of some ongoing shoulder troubles with Ozuna when trading for him but felt, if anything, they’d impact his throwing from the outfield — not his offense. Still, Mozeliak says surgery has not been recommended for Ozuna, so it seems he’ll hope rest, rehab and perhaps physical therapy this offseason can help. To his credit, Ozuna has absolutely raked at a .333/.371/.615 clip in his past 143 PAs even while playing through that pain.
  • The Angels are shutting down right-hander Nick Tropeano for the season, tweets Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. The right-hander’s rehab stint was recently halted, and Fletcher adds that he’ll undergo a platelet-rich plasma injection in his right shoulder in hopes of avoiding offseason surgery. Three separate trips to the DL for shoulder issues limited Tropeano to just 76 innings in 2018, and he struggled to a 4.74 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9 in that time. Those 76 frames were actually a career-high for the 28-year-old Tropeano, whose career has been proliferated by injuries — most notably Tommy John surgery in 2016. He’ll be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter.

Injury Notes: Shoemaker, Cubs, Ozuna, Pineda, Villanueva

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Angels righty Matt Shoemaker underwent forearm surgery earlier this summer — an operation that repaired the pronator teres tendon and also decompressed a nerve in his right arm. While that sounded ominous and called the remainder of his season into question, Shoemaker has thrown a pair of simulated games recently and tells Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that he’s aiming to return to the Angels in September. Shoemaker has been battling injuries for much of his career and has only pitched once in the Majors since last June. As he explains it, the tendon damage in his arm was not initially revealed on an MRI and was not detected during a 2017 operation because that surgery was performed a few inches away from the tendon damage. It took exploratory surgery for doctors to discover a “split tendon,” which Shoemaker believes to have been the root of his troubles.

Some more injury news from around the league…

  • The Cubs put Addison Russell on the disabled list today as a corresponding move for the activation of newly acquired Daniel Murphy. As MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat writes, the official announcement stated that a sprained left index finger was prompting the DL placement, but Russell has also been bothered by inflammation in his right shoulder. He’ll get some needed rest from the current DL stint, though there’s no indication that he’s expected to miss a prolonged period of time. There’s less certainty regarding closer Brandon Morrow, Muskat continues, explaining that the right-hander is headed for more tests on his ailing right biceps Friday and isn’t expected to return until September. Morrow has been sidelined since mid-July.
  • The Cardinals announced today that left fielder Marcell Ozuna has been placed on the disabled list due to inflammation in his right shoulder. It’s a tough loss for the Cards, even if it’s only an abbreviated stint, as Ozuna had hit safely in 22 of his past 27 games, batting a combined .315/.356/.532 with six homers, four doubles and a triple in that span of 118 plate appearances. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that Ozuna’s shoulder has been problematic dating all the way back to last season. The Cardinals were aware of the issue when trading for him, Goold writes, and the team has tried to limit Ozuna’s throwing outside of a game setting throughout the season in order to lessen the stress on said shoulder.
  • Michael Pineda is slated to make two more starts for the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate before joining the big league club in September, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports. Signed to a two-year, $10MM deal that pays him $8MM in 2019, Pineda is in the final stages of recovering from 2017 Tommy John surgery and is expected to be an important piece in Minnesota’s rotation next season. Manager Paul Molitor wouldn’t rule out giving Pineda a start or two in September but said he doesn’t plan to get him too stretched out. Berardino suggests that Pineda won’t top 75 pitches in any appearance this year.
  • Padres third baseman Christian Villanueva has been diagnosed with a fractured finger and is headed to the 10-day disabled list, tweets AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. Villanueva wasn’t in today’s lineup due to some swelling in his hand after taking a tough grounder yesterday, and further testing appears to have revealed the fracture. A corresponding move will be announced tomorrow. It’s not clear how long Villanueva will be out. The 27-year-old Villanueva has utterly demolished left-handed pitching this season, hitting at an absurd .336/.392/.736 clip with 14 home runs through 113 plate appearances when holding the platoon advantage. Unfortunately, he’s mustered a feeble .189/.255/.319 slash against right-handed opponents.

NL Notes: Callaway, Pirates, Ozuna, Reds

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Although this has been a nightmarish year for the Mets, it doesn’t appear rookie manager Mickey Callaway’s job is in jeopardy. Even if the Mets hire a new general manager, Callaway is expected to return in 2019, Steven Marcus of Newsday reports. Sandy Alderson, the GM who played a key part in hiring Callaway last offseason, went on leave in June to battle cancer. Whether the soon-to-be 71-year-old Alderson will return to his post in 2019 is unclear, but in the meantime, the Mets have essentially been utilizing tri-GMs in John Ricco, J.P. Ricciardi and Omar Minaya. Any of those three could be candidates for the team’s full-time GM role if Alderson doesn’t come back next year, but regardless of who ultimately holds the position, it seems that individual will be working with Callaway.

Here’s more from the National League…

  • Prior to their midseason resurgence, the Pirates were leaning toward selling at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, general manager Neal Huntington told KDKA-FM on Sunday (via Chris Adamski of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review). However, the team never gave any thought to dealing two of its top controllable assets, right-hander Jameson Taillon or closer Felipe Vazquez. “When club hit rock bottom at seven (games) under (.500 on July 7),” Huntington said, “(we began to consider), ‘Maybe ‘18 isn’t our year. How do we strengthen ’19, ’20, and ‘21 moving on?’ (But) it was never a consideration to trade Felipe Vazquez, and trading Jameson Taillon was never a consideration for us.” The Pirates actually fell to eight games under .500 on July 7, but they then ripped off 15 wins in 19 games before July 31 and ended up as buyers, acquiring right-hander Chris Archer from the Rays and reliever Keone Kela from the Rangers.
  • This has been a disappointing offensive season for Cardinals left fielder Marcell Ozuna, whom the team acquired from Miami over the winter on the heels of a career year in 2017. After posting a 142 wRC+, mashing 37 home runs and recording a .237 ISO last season, Ozuna’s down to 90, 13 and .124 in those respective categories this year. It’s possible right shoulder problems are at least partly to blame, as Ozuna told Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com and other reporters that he has been battling tendinitis and inflammation dating back to last season. The Cardinals were aware of that when they picked up Ozuna, per president John Mozeliak, though Langosch adds that the team hasn’t considered surgery for the 27-year-old. Regardless, Ozuna’s arm strength has taken notable steps backward, Langosch details in her piece.
  • Meanwhile, Reds outfielder Scott Schebler is dealing with his own right shoulder troubles, and they may shelve him until September, manager Jim Riggleman announced (via Kyle Melnick of MLB.com). Schebler went on the DL on July 15 with a sprained AC joint, and even though the Reds activated him Friday when his 20-day rehab stint ended, he’s still unable to throw properly. Schebler had been in the midst of a fine season before going on the DL, with a .278/.351/.470 line and 12 homers in 299 plate appearances.

NL Notes: Giants, L. Cain, Pirates, Musgrove, Cards, Ozuna

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The Giants aren’t dead set against signing a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, general manager Bobby Evans said this week (via Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, on Twitter). Ideally, Evans would rather not sign a player attached to draft pick compensation, though he “all but said” that the Giants are “talking to” center fielder and QO recipient Lorenzo Cain, Schulman reports. In adding Cain, who’s likely to ink one of this winter’s biggest contracts, the Giants would lose two 2018 draft picks (their second- and fifth-highest selections) and $1MM of international bonus pool space.

More from the National League…

  • The four-player return the Pirates got from the Astros for right-hander Gerrit Cole is “brutal,” one evaluator told Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The evaluator believes that righties Joe Musgrove and Michael Feliz have value as relievers, but he regards third baseman Colin Moran and outfielder Jason Martin as “throw-in types.” Meanwhile, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette spoke to an evaluator who sees Musgrove as a potential No. 4 starter. (Twitter link.) However, the evaluator wonders if the 25-year-old is better suited to come out of the bullpen – something he did with great success in 2017. Musgrove, for his part, expects to start in Pittsburgh. Speaking with Mark Berman of Fox 26 about Saturday’s trade, Musgrove said: “Over the past 12 hours I’ve become more clear-minded about what’s happening here. I think it’s a good move for me. It’s a chance to go to an organization and get back in the rotation and try to help them build something special. Anytime I’m traded for a guy like Gerrit Cole, they’ve got big plans for me, and I plan on filling those big shoes” (Twitter links here).
  • Cardinals president John Mozeliak informed the Associated Press and other media this weekend that they’re continuing to “explore” ways to improve, though he’s confident in their current roster. Mozeliak is “hesitant” to surrender prospects for players who are low on team control, the AP writes. The Cards did make that type of trade last month, though, acquiring outfielder Marcell Ozuna’s two years of control from Miami in exchange for four prospects. Ozuna discussed his reaction to the deal this weekend, telling Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com and other reporters: “The first thing I heard [was] they were going to trade me to the Oakland A’s. I said, ’God, please, leave me over here.’ Then I heard they traded me to the Cardinals, and I said, ’OK, thanks.'”

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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The deadline for MLB teams to exchange salary arbitration figures with their arbitration-eligible players is today at 1pm ET. As such, there will be a veritable flood of arb agreements piling up in the next few hours — especially in light of a more universal approach to the “file and trial” method for teams. (That is to say, those teams will no longer negotiate one-year deals after arb figures are exchanged and will instead head to a hearing with those players, barring an agreemenr on a multi-year deal.)

Note that you can keep an eye on all of today’s deals using MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker, which can be filtered to show only the results of the team you follow and is also sortable by service time and dollar value of the agreement. All projections that are referenced come from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s annual compilation of projected arbitration salaries.

Onto today’s landslide of deals…

National League West

  • The Rockies have agreed to a $2MM salary with righty Chad Bettis, MLBTR has learned (Twitter link). That’s a fair sight more than his $1.5MM projection. Bettis surely would have had an opportunity to set a bigger platform for himself, but had to battle through testicular cancer before returning to the hill in 2017. Meanwhile, second baseman DJ LeMahieu has settled for a $8.5MM payday in his final year of arbitration, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. That’s just a hair short of the $8.8MM he was pegged for in MLBTR’s projections.
  • Giants second baseman Joe Panik is slated to earn $3.45MM in his first season of arb eligibility, Devan Fink of SB Nation was first to tweet. That’s just a hair shy of the $3.5MM that MLBTR projected. Lefty Will Smith has settled at $2.5MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The club has also announced deals with its remaining arb-eligible players, right-handed relievers Sam Dyson ($4.6MM projection), Hunter Strickland ($1.7MM projection), and Cory Gearrin ($1.6MM projection). (H/t John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, on Twitter). Strickland earns $1.55MM, Nightengale tweets.
  • The Padres and Freddy Galvis agreed to a $6.825MM deal for his lone season of team control in San Diego, tweets Robert Murray of FanRag Sports. Galvis, who spent the first several seasons of his career in Philadelphia before being traded this winter, had been projected to make $7.4MM. Infielder Cory Spangenberg settled at $1.7MM, Heyman tweets, falling below a $2.0MM projection. San Diego has also reached agreements with righty Kirby Yates and outfielder Matt Szczur, the team announced. Yates will earn $1,062,500, Heyman tweets, which is just shy of his $1.1MM projection. Szczur, meanwhile, will get $950K, a healthy boost over his $800K projection, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link).
  • The Diamondbacks agreed to a $7.75MM deal with center fielder A.J. Pollock, Murray tweets. Pollock was projected to earn $8.4MM in his final year of eligibility before free agency. Murray also notes that Brad Boxberger is set to earn $1.85MM next year (Twitter link). Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic adds that lefty Andrew Chafin ($1.2MM projection) and the D-backs have a $1.195MM deal in place. Third baseman Jake Lamb, meanwhile, agreed to a $4.275MM deal with the Diamondbacks, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link). Lamb, eligible for arbitration for the first time, was projected to earn $4.7MM. He’s controllable through 2020. And ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that Chris Herrmann ($1.4MM projection) landed a $1.3MM deal. Righty Taijuan Walker has settled for $4.825MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), which is within range but shy of the $5.0MM he projected for. Lefty Robbie Ray has settled at $3.95MM, per Nightengale (Twitter link), which falls short of his $4.2MM projection. Infielder Nick Ahmed will $1.275MM, per Heyman (via Twitter), which tops the projected figure of $1.1MM. Arizona has also announced that Chris Owings and David Peralta have agreed to terms.
  • The Dodgers are in agreement on a $6MM deal with lefty Alex Wood, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He had projected at $6.4MM. Meanwhile, righty Josh Fields agreed to a $2.2MM deal, tweets Murray. Heyman tweets that Enrique Hernandez will earn $1.6MM. Fields’ projection of $2.2MM was on the money, whereas Hernandez topped his mark by $300K. Fields is controlled through 2019, while Hernandez is controllable through 2020. Southpaw Tony Cingrani gets $2.3MM, Murray tweets, which is just a shade over his $2.2MM projection. Outfielder Joc Pederson has also settled, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter), with Beth Harris of the Associated Press reporting a $2.6MM salary that rather handily tops the $2.0MM that MLBTR projected.

National League Central

  • All three remaining Cardinals arb-eligibles have agreed to deals, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch tweets. Marcell Ozuna will earn $9MM after drawin a much larger $10.9MM projection, Heyman tweets. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had explained that Ozuna likely wouldn’t quite reach the amount the algorithm suggested, though the actual salary still comes in a bit shy of expectations. Lefty Tyler Lyons ($1.3MM projection) receives $1.2MM, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). The Cards have also reached agreement with Michael Wacha for $5.3MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter); he was projected to earn $5.9MM.
  • The Reds agreed to a $860K salary with Anthony DeSclafani, tweets Murray. DeSclafani missed the 2017 season due to arm troubles and had been projected to earn $1.1MM. He’ll remain under Reds control through 2020. Billy Hamilton and the Reds have settled on a one-year deal worth $4.6MM, tweets Murray. A popular trade candidate this offseason, Hamilton was projected to earn $5MM and comes with another two seasons of team control. Murray also conveys that Michael Lorenzen agreed to a $1.3125MM deal, which lines up fairly well with his $1.4MM projection.
  • The Cubs have struck a deal with lefty Justin Wilson, agreeing to a one-year, $4.25MM pact, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link). Wilson, who had been projected at $4.3MM, will be a free agent next winter. The Cubs alsoagreed to a $950K salary with infielder Tommy La Stella, tweets MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat. La Stella was projected to make $1MM in his first offseason of arbitration eligiblity and can be controlled through 2020. Right-hander Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs have agreed to a $4.175MM salary, per Nightengale (on Twitter). That sum comes in a fair bit shy of his projected $4.9MM projection as a first-time eligible player. The Cubs control Hendricks through the 2020 season. Chicago also agreed with Addison Russell, per Wittenmyer (Twitter link). The shortstop will receive $3.2MM for the coming season.
  • Nightengale reports (on Twitter) that the Brewers and breakout closer Corey Knebel settled at $3.65MM. As a Super Two player, Knebel can be controlled through the 2021 season and will be arb-eligible thrice more. He was projected at $4.1MM. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets that the Brewers and right-hander Jimmy Nelson settled at $3.7MM, which falls $1MM shy of his $4.7MM projection (though some of that discrepancy may be due to Nelson’s shoulder injury). Milwaukee also announced a deal for infielders Jonathan Villar (projected at $3MM) and Hernan Perez (projected at $2.2MM). McCalvy reports that Villar will earn $2.55MM, while terms of Perez’s deal are not yet available.
  • The Pirates have avoided arbitration with shortstop Jordy Mercer by settling on a $6.75MM salary for 2018, tweets Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Mercer, who’d been projected to earn $6.5MM, is entering his final year of team control and will be a free agent next winter. Biertempfel also reports that Gerrit Cole will earn that same $6.75MM salary in 2018 — a $3MM raise over last year (Twitter link). He has two years of control remaining and had been projected to earn $7.4MM. Righty George Kontos has also agreed to terms, per Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (via Twitter). He had projected for $2.7MM and will receive a smidge more, at $2,725,000, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link).

National League East

  • The Braves reached a $3.4MM deal with righty Arodys Vizcaino, per Jon Heyman of FanRag (Twitter link). He’d been projected at $3.7MM. The Braves and righty Dan Winkler agreed to a $610K salary for the upcoming season, tweets Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Winkler tossed just 14 1/3 innings in the Majors this year as he made his way back from elbow surgery. He’d projected at $800K.
  • The Marlins and Miguel Rojas agreed to a $1.18MM deal for 2018, Heyman tweets, placing him north of his $1.1MM projection. Rojas should see additional playing time following the Marlins’ wave of trades this offseason. He’s controlled through 2020. Miami also has a deal in place with infielder Derek Dietrich for $2.9MM, Heyman tweets, after projecting at $3.2MM.
  • The Mets were able to settle perhaps their most notable arb case, agreeing to a $7.4MM deal with righty Jacob deGrom, per James Wagner of the New York Times (via Twitter). That’s well shy of his $9.2MM projection, though MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had explained the formula likely overestimated deGrom’s earning power by quite a wide margin. Fellow top righty Noah Syndergaard gets $2.975MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), which goes a fair sight past the $1.9MM projection for the outstanding young starter, whose 2017 season was limited by injury. And reliever AJ Ramos will take home $9.225MM, according to Wagner (via Twitter). That’s just barely past the $9.2MM projection.  Wilmer Flores has also avoided arbitration with the Mets, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports (on Twitter). He’ll receive a $3.4MM salary, which falls within $300K of his projected rate. The Mets control Flores through the 2019 campaign. The Mets and right-hander Matt Harvey agreed to a one-year deal worth $5.625MM, tweets Nightengale. Harvey, who is a free agent next winter, had been projected to earn $5.9MM. Meanwhile, Marc Carig of Newsday tweets that Jeurys Familia will earn $7.925MM for the upcoming year, while Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that catcher Travis d’Arnaud will earn $3.475MM in 2018 (Twitter link). Familia, a free agent next winter, was projected at $7.4MM. The Mets control d’Arnaud through 2019, and his projection was $3.4MM. Righty Hansel Robles gets $900K, Heyman tweets.
  • Also via Nightengale (Twitter link), the Nationals agreed to a $6.475MM salary for 2018 with right-hander Tanner Roark. That falls about $1MM shy of his $7.5MM projection but still represents a noted raise of $4.315MM for Roark, whom the Nats control through 2019. Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post adds that Michael Taylor will earn $2.525MM next year. Taylor is controlled through 2020 and was projected at $2.3MM.
  • The Phillies and Maikel Franco settled on a $2.95MM salary for the 2018 season, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (Twitter link). Franco, a Super Two player who’d been projected at $3.6MM, remains under club control with the Phils through the 2021 season. Second bagger Cesar Hernandez will earn at a $5.1MM rate in 2018, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki (via Twitter). That beats his $4.7MM projection and wraps up this year’s arb business for the Phillies.

Arbitration Breakdown: Marcell Ozuna and Jose Abreu

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Recently, I have been discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases as part of MLBTR’s Arbitration Breakdown series. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Full arbitration projections for 2018 are also available, for those interested.

Marcell Ozuna | Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Before Marcell Ozuna reports for his first Spring Training as a Cardinal, he will have to start the potentially uncomfortable process of salary arbitration with them. Ozuna has quite a resume to boast, which is part of what made him so attractive to the Cardinals in the first place. He hit .312 with 37 home runs and 124 RBIs last year, giving him few comparables among second-time arbitration-eligible players.

My model projects a substantial raise for him of $7.4MM — all the way to a $10.9MM salary. This may be high, given the lack of exact historical comparables and the potential for an arbitration process to discount some of the home runs hit in a very high league home run environment (2017 set a record). That said, it still suggests that Ozuna is going to get a large raise anyway.

Jose Abreu | Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Jose Abreu had a comparable season, and his projection is accordingly similar. He hit .304 with 33 homers and 102 RBIs, making the primary difference in their cases the lower RBI total for Abreu. The White Sox slugger is projected for a $7.1MM raise instead of Ozuna’s $7.4MM, but he starts from a higher base salary and is therefore projected to land at $17.9MM.

No other players in the past five years have entered arbitration with the elusive .300/30/100 slash line. However, several players did so in the prior five years, including Jacoby Ellsbury in 2012 (.321/32/105), Josh Hamilton in 2011 (.359/32/100), Matt Holliday in 2008 (.340/36/137) and Miguel Cabrera in 2008 (.320/34/119). Those players got raises between $5.65MM (Ellsbury) and $3.9MM (Cabrera), although both Hamilton and Holliday got raises above $5MM, thus making Cabrera the exception.

It seems quite likely that Ellsbury, with 39 stolen bases to Ozuna’s one stolen base, would have a better case. However, the fact that Ellsbury’s case is six years old could put them closer together and could even put Ozuna and Abreu ahead. One thing that is important to note is that only Ellsbury got a one-year deal. The other raises mentioned above are part of multi-year deals, which are usually not very applicable in arbitration cases (although they could be in this scenario with few comparables).

If we look for a player more recent, we might consider Manny Machado last year at .294/37/96. He got a $6.5MM raise and clearly looks like a relevant player. The home run environment difference in just one year is pretty limited as well.

The record raise for a second-time eligible hitter belongs to Chris Davis, who got a $7.05MM raise after his .286/53/138 campaign in 2014. That would probably compare favorably to Ozuna’s numbers because of the home run difference, but the four years’ lag could render that number stale and push Ozuna and Abreu above him after all, as the model predicts. However, I think it may serve as a ceiling, leaving Ozuna and Abreu south of theor projections and slightly south of Davis.

Charlie Blackmon hit .324/29/104 last season, but did so in Coors Field, so he might be seen as less impressive than Ozuna and Abreu. His $3.8MM raise is probably a floor, and perhaps not that close of one.

I think it may be more likely that Ozuna and Abreu both get raises somewhere around $6MM. The triad of players with .300/30/100 slash lines and raises over $5MM back in 2008-12 are probably floors, whereas Davis’ raise seems like a ceiling. If that proves true, Ozuna might end up around $10MM instead of closer to $11MM, and Abreu might end up closer to $17MM than $18MM.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rob Manfred On Marlins’ Fire Sale, Long-Term Direction

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In a heated interview on the Dan Le Batard show, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred refuted the notion that he had any advance knowledge that the incoming Marlins ownership group, led by Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman, had plans for a reduction in payroll (Facebook link with full audio/video of the interview).

Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, however, cites multiple sources that agree with Le Batard’s assessment, suggesting that the Commissioner’s Office was fully aware of what would unfold after Jeter and Sherman took the reins in south Florida. Per Jackson, two sources that were “directly involved” in the sale said that the new ownership group was required to inform other owners of their intentions with payroll, and they let it be known that there’d be a reduction to the $85-90MM range.

Jackson also writes that someone “directly involved” in the sales process said that Manfred’s comments were “absolutely not true,” adding that the Commissioner’s Office requests an operations plan from all prospective bidders. The Jeter/Sherman group’s operational plan, titled “Project Wolverine,” according to Jackson, was “widely circulated” and known about prior to the league’s approval of the sale. Manfred paints the bidding process in a considerably different light.

“Just like in every other ownership transfer, we examined the financial wherewithal of the group,” says Manfred of the approval process. “We made sure that the governance structure of the partnership was consistent with our rules. And we had interviews with the people who were going to be running the club to get a general understanding of their approach to running the club. Everyone that was involved in that process, including me, was convinced that this group is committed to winning baseball in South Florida over the long haul.”

Manfred repeatedly denies any knowledge of the Marlins’ plans for tearing down payroll and stresses that he is a firm believer in the fact that the Jeter/Sherman group has a long-term plan and a commitment to bring winning baseball to south Florida. Pressed on whether there was an indication that the Marlins planned to trade Giancarlo Stanton and others, Manfred emphasizes that specific baseball operations decisions aren’t a part of the approval process when soliciting bids from prospective owners.

“We don’t approve, dictate or necessarily ask clubs what they’re going to do with respect to their individual operations,” Manfred explains. “Those are local decisions that really are not part of the approval process. .. We don’t get into, ’Are you going to trade Player X or Player Y at a particular point in time?’ Nor do we ask them to make a commitment as to what they’re going to do with payroll before they’ve even got in and made an evaluation of their talent level, their ability to win with the people that they have there. That’s just not how the ownership process works.”

Manfred goes on to argue that Major League Baseball has long been a cyclical game, adding that recent World Series victories from the Astros and Cubs underscore the fact that aggressive payroll cutting and rebuilding tactics can indeed produce winning clubs. Conversely, the 2012 World Series participants (San Francisco and Detroit) have the first two picks in next year’s draft.

To be sure, there’s logic behind those claims, though not all rebuilds are created equally. As Le Batard contends, south Florida — more than perhaps any other market — has long harbored feelings of betrayal at the hands of Major League Baseball and former Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria. The distrust that many baseball fans in Miami have toward the Marlins organization is palpable, and the support (or lack thereof) that the Marlins figure to receive throughout this process is not synonymous with the loyal fan base that a team such as the Cubs enjoyed during its own rebuild.

That said, the organization is ultimately a business, and it never seemed especially plausible to expect a new ownership group to enter and hemorrhage money by throwing millions more at a roster that lacks the depth of a sound farm system and has ranked last in the National League in attendance in each of the past five seasons.

If anything, the true point of contention for Miami fans isn’t necessarily (or shouldn’t be) the decision to tear down the roster but rather to do so in a manner that looks to have generated more financial savings than top-tier talent in the process. Many pundits have suggested that the returns the Marlins have received thus far are all on the light side. One can argue that cost savings should have taken a back seat to talent acquisition and prompted new ownership to include additional funds in the trades in order to bolster the respective returns.

Whether the league had any inkling that another fire sale was forthcoming for the Marlins, the reality facing the team now is that they’re presented with an even greater uphill battle in terms of generating attendance as they field a team that is without, at minimum, star-caliber players like Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon. Additional trades involving J.T. Realmuto, Christian Yelich and others, of course, may yet come to fruition; both Realmuto and Yelich are reportedly unhappy with the Marlins’ direction — so much so that Realmuto’s reps at CAA are said to have let the Marlins know that their client would prefer to be traded.

The entire interview between Le Batard and Manfred is more than 17 minutes long but is well worth a full listen both for fans in Florida and those of teams in other markets.

Cardinals Acquire Marcell Ozuna

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TODAY: The move is official, with Miami announcing it.

YESTERDAY, 5:05pm: The Marlins will also receive pitching prospects Zac Gallen and Daniel Castano, per Spencer (Twitter link). Gallen, a 22-year-old righty, ranks as the Cardinals’ 13th-best prospect at MLB.com. The outlet did not rank Castano among the Cardinals’ top 30 prospects, on the other hand. The 23-year-old left-hander, a 19th-round pick in 2016, spent last season at the low-A level and posted a 2.57 ERA, 8.01 K/9 against 1.29 BB/9 and a 51.9 percent groundball rate over 14 starts (91 innings).

4:35pm: Sierra is in the deal, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports on Twitter.

1:54pm: There are three other prospects in the deal, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. But those are lesser assets and Alcantara is considered the centerpiece of the swap.

1:12: Young righty Sandy Alcantara is going to Miami in the deal, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. Goold had mentioned his possible inclusion; Alcantara was slated to join the Fish in the scuttled Stanton deal.

Alcantara, 22, reached the majors briefly in 2017 as a reliever, but he’s seen as a high-ceiling starting prospect. Over 125 1/3 Double-A innings in his first attempt at the upper minors, Alcantara posted a 4.31 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9. We did not learn much from his first eight appearances in the majors, but Alcantara did show a 98+ mph fastball and generated swings and misses at a robust 17.4% rate.

12:49pm: It sounds as if young arms will make up a significant part of the return, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweeting the package will include multiple pitchers and a position player. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch adds some more detail, saying the Cards “offered a pitching prospect as the centerpiece of a deal” and that an outfielder will be among the players changing hands.

12:06pm: The Cardinals have struck a deal to acquire outfielder Marcell Ozuna from the Marlins, according to Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio (via Twitter). MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez confirms the move on Twitter but notes it is pending a physical. Indications earlier today were that the deal was moving closer, and it has evidently now been completed.

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Ozuna, who turned 27 earlier in the offseason, is projected by MLBTR to earn $10.9MM in his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility. At his age and with his track record of productivity, that’s a bargain rate of pay — which, no doubt, will be reflected in the still-unknown trade return for Miami.

While the teams had attempted to line up on a deal for slugger Giancarlo Stanton, those efforts were nixed when Stanton declined to waive his no-trade clause to go to St. Louis. But the talks weren’t for naught: they also paved the way to today’s reported agreement on Ozuna, who has no trade protections.

The Cardinals have looked far and wide for bats this winter as they seek to consolidate a broad group of talent into a few more premium lineup pieces. Ozuna certainly represents the top-end bat they were in search of — at least, that is, so long as he can replicate something like his 2017 output.

In the just-finished campaign, Ozuna drove the ball out of the yard 37 times, carried a personal-high 9.4% walk rate, and ended with an appealing .312/.376/.548 slash line over 679 plate appearances. That’s a big step forward for a player who had hewed closer to league-average production over his prior two seasons.

Beyond the fact that Ozuna has not yet repeated that level of output, there are a few other slight red flags. He carried a .355 BABIP that’s unlikely to be replicated and was perhaps a bit fortunate to send 23.4% of the fly balls he hit out of the park. On the whole, though, Ozuna has always been considered a player with the talent for this sort of dominance, and his healthy 39.1% hard-hit rate shows he was rewarded for making good contact.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Cards plan to utilize Ozuna, who has previously spent time in center field but shifted to the corner in 2017. He graded quite well upon the move and has at times done the same up the middle. That leaves the team with a variety of players who could be described similarly in regard to their glovework.

Odds are, the Cardinals will plan to give primary time to Ozuna, Tommy Pham, and Dexter Fowler. Perhaps which player plays center is less important than the fact that the club will feel it has three useful defenders on the grass. Regardless, that would leave Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk among those looking at possible reserve duty.

More likely, one or both will be traded. Piscotty and Grichuk, after all, both hit from the right side — as do the three top outfielders (with Fowler representing switch-hitting option who fares better traditionally from the right side). Indeed, the Cards could move yet more pieces from a 40-man roster that is full of right-handed-hitting outfielders, some of whom could be included in this trade. The only southpaw-swinging outfield bat currently on hand is youngster Magneuris Sierra. He might be destined for some added seasoning, so perhaps it’s not inconceivable that St. Louis could end up seeking another reserve piece that hits from the left side or perhaps look for creative ways to boost the functionality of the team’s infielders.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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