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Replacing Legends

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If you trust Braves’ third base coach Ron Washington, Austin Riley has a long and bright future ahead of him with the Atlanta Braves, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien. Said Washington, “He’s a very, very special kid. He’s on that special level with Ozzie (Albies) and (Ronald) Acuńa (Jr.) and all those young guys. He’s on that special level with them.”

Given Washington’s stellar reputation as an infield instructor, his word carries some weight. He goes on in O’Brien’s article to laud not only Riley’s long-term future with the bat, but with the glove as well, calling Riley “a tremendous third baseman.”

While it’s certainly encouraging for Braves’ fans to hear Washington speak so highly of Riley after an up-and-down rookie season, the path ahead is not without obstacles. For starters, he hasn’t locked down his spot in the starting lineup. All accounts suggest he’s going to have to earn his keep while being pushed at third by Johan Camargo. After his first month of big-league action, it would have seemed unfathomable that Riley wouldn’t have the 2020 third base job locked down, but Camargo remains very much in the running, despite struggling himself in 2019. Camargo’s year was worth -0.6 rWAR after hitting only .233/.279/.384 over 248 plate appearances. He’s played much better in the past (4.4 fWAR from 2017 to 2018), and the Braves appear confident he can at the very least hold the line for a year.

Should Camargo get the bulk of playing time at third, Riley could get at-bats as a designated hitter –  at least in theory. But O’Brien notes that the scuttlebutt out of Atlanta pegs Marcell Ozuna as the likeliest option to see heavy minutes as a potential DH. Makes sense with Ronald Acuna Jr., Ender Inciarte, and Nick Markakis on hand to handle the outfield rotation. Riley himself could even see some minutes out on the grass depending on how things shake out.

But the real question at hand here is this: is Austin Riley the third baseman of the future for the Atlanta Braves? Ron Washington certainly seems to think so. If we trust Washington’s eye for defensive talent and assume Riley can stick at third base (or even become a plus defender), the question is whether his approach at the dish can improve enough to take advantage of his otherworldly power.

After all, Riley’s power numbers last year were excellent. He managed a .471 SLG with 18 home runs in just 274 at bats. His isolated power was .245 ISO, well above average and a number you’d hope for out of a middle-of-the-order bat. For context, Acuna Jr. walked away from 2019 with a .238 ISO. A full season at Riley’s mark would put him among the top-40 mashers in the league by isolated power. His power plays.

But even with those numbers, Riley’s total offensive contribution amounted to 14 percent below league average by wRC+. He needs to round out the rest of his game – and that starts with cutting down strikeouts. Riley’s walk-to-strikeout numbers are not anywhere near where they need to be for everyday reps (5.4 BB%, 36.4 K%). Both numbers need to see significant positive regression. The good news is, Riley looked the part in spring training, where signs pointed to Riley being able to make the necessary adjustments.

Third base is a loaded position for Atlanta – in terms of poignancy – and Riley has big shoes to fill. Putting aside the big picture pressure of manning the spot once belonging to the legendary Chipper Jones, even recent history has set a high bar for Riley. Last season, Josh Donaldson returned to All-Star form with a .259/.379/.521 line, 37 rainmaking bombs, 96 runs, 94 RBIs, 132 wRC+, good for 4.9 fWAR/6.0 rWAR. Good luck replicating those numbers out the gate.

Elsewhere in the NL East, another legend moved westward after a memorable 2019. Anthony Rendon gave the Nationals seven underrated seasons at the hot corner before joining the Los Angeles Angels this winter. We could talk all day about Rendon’s performance this postseason, but those in Washington, Rendon-as-superstar was old hat: He’s been a 6+ fWAR performer for three seasons running. Beyond his consistency, there’s simply no replacing the slow-heartbeat clutch-hitting Rendon provided the Nats on their World Series run – but someone is going to have to try.

Enter Carter Kieboom. Rendon’s nominal heir apparent – at 22-years-old – is about half a year younger than Riley, and he comes sporting a shinier prospect pedigree. He’s the 21st ranked prospect overall by MLB.com and Fangraphs, while Baseball America puts him as the 15th overall prospect (admittedly, Riley wasn’t far off, topping out as Baseball America’s 22nd ranked prospect before last season).

Much like Riley, Kieboom’s role at the outset of whatever season comes next is TBD. There’s an even greater chance the Nats roll with veterans Starlin Castro, Howie Kendrick and Asdrubal Cabrera sharing at-bats between third and second. At least, that was the plan had the season begun on time. Depending on how live baseball in the pipeline shakes out, the Nats might prefer Kieboom break camp with the team just to ensure he’s continuing his development via live baseball. With a potential DH in play, there may even be enough at-bats for the Nats to accommodate playing time for Kieboom and their veteran triumvirate.

Also like Riley, Kieboom wasn’t overly impressive in his first taste of big-league action. Apologists have plenty of cause to support Kieboom even after hitting just .128/.209/.282 over an 11 game stint early in the year (which included 4 errors at shortstop). Reason being: he wasn’t ready. Kieboom’s April promotion was a case of injury-depleted desperation. The Nats were in a bind with Trea Turner on the shelf. Wilmer Difo wasn’t getting the job done as Turner’s understudy, and the Nats were off to a slow start (11-12 at the time of his debut).

The small sample hasn’t done much to lessen the optimism over Kieboom’s potential, especially after he raked for a line of .303/.409/.493 for Triple-A Fresno. The shortstop-by-nature has a long-term future at third or second in Washington, though the suggestion has been that his power will play enough to handle third, and the Nats’ other top young bat has spent most of his career at second (Luis Garcia).

Riley is about a half-season ahead of Keiboom’s trajectory, giving us more familiarity with his game at the pro level. But for comparison’s sake, Riley hit .293/.366/.626 in 44 games at Triple-A in 2019. They’re both former first-rounders (Riley #41 overall in 2015, Kieboom #28 overall in 2016), but their draft status won’t help as each looks to fill the shoes of franchise legends.

And yet, they’re not the same. Riley is a hulking light-breaker who’s defensively playing up to stick at third base. His frame is redolent of a young Ryan Zimmerman before Mr. Nat made the move across the diamond to first. Kieboom’s not a small man himself (6’2″, 190 lbs), but some scouts thought he could stick at shortstop, and he brings a contact-oriented approach. He can stroke it to all fields with potential plus power and a track record of taking walks and putting the ball in play. They’re different molds as far as third baseman go, but neither has much leeway as they try to establish themselves in the majors. Not with both the Braves and Nationals looking to contend in a season that could be as short as 50-some games.

Whenever they claim regular roles, Riley and Keiboom will be two exciting young talents to track in the NL East. The Phillies’ Alec Bohm may very well throw his hat into this ring in the very near future as well (feel free to make your case for Bohm in the comments). Bohm is another former first-rounder (third overall in 2018), but he’s spent less time in the minors and is actually older than both Riley and Kieboom. Team conditions aside, let’s say you’ve got a hole at third base and the right to poach one third base prospect. Who do you want? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users).

Braves Have All The Pieces To Build A Solid DH

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With the DH likely headed to the National League in 2020, the Braves may have a few more at-bats to spread around. As a team, the Braves finished 2019 with a 102 wRC+, the 4th-highest mark in the National League, though they managed to turn that production into 855 runs, fewer than only the Nationals and Dodgers. To repeat at those levels, Atlanta has the difficult task of replacing the production from Bringer of Rain Josh Donaldson, who joined the Twins after putting up 37 bombs, 96 runs, 94 RBIs, and an all-around stellar 6.0 rWAR season in 2019. A regular DH should help.

Atlanta boasts a good deal of depth to utilize in a potential designated hitter role. For starters, there’s the question of whether Johan Camargo becomes a four-down back at third base. Austin Riley may eventually take over the hot corner, but if he doesn’t, there are probably some DH at-bats to go his way. Riley was slated to spend some time at Triple-A, but if there is no Triple-A, the Braves may just as soon bring his light-tower power to the big-league level. Riley definitely struggled closing out his rookie year, but power (.471 SLG and .245 ISO) isn’t the problem. Riley needs to close the gap on his 5.4% BB% and 36.4 K%, but given his youth and potential, he’s probably the guy the Braves want to claim the DH spot (if he doesn’t claim third base outright).

If Riley doesn’t improve the other aspects of his game, then he’s essentially Adam Duvall, another candidate for DH at-bats. Duvall, 31, has a career .229 ISO and .461 SLG at the big league level, numbers that could land him in the middle of the order if it weren’t for other drawbacks to his game. In 130 plate appearances last season, Duvall put together a solid 121 wRC+ showing by hitting .267/.315/.567. That output was bolstered by an absurd .300 ISO. He also had some good luck, as his .306 BABIP was a fair bit higher than his career mark of .271. Duvall could certainly see some time at DH, especially if they want to save Riley for a more stable playing environment, but he has gone just 1 for 3 in posting a wRC+ over 100 when given more than 400 plate appearances. In a short season, however, Duvall has the type of short-burst approach that could perform.

The safer option is to use the DH to rest their four-man outfield of Ronald Acuna Jr., Ender Inciarte, Marcell Ozuna, and Nick Markakis. Acuna will be in there every day, but he can move around the outfield and would probably benefit from a DHing day every now and again. Ozuna and Markakis complement each other perfectly in some ways, with Ozuna the right-handed power bat and Markakis the lefty on-base option, and they can both handle themselves in the field. There’s no reason both shouldn’t be in the lineup, however, especially if Inciarte is healthy enough to spend the better part of most weeks manning centerfield. Inciarte, 29, played just 65 games last season, but he’s a true difference-maker with the glove when healthy (21 OAA in 2018, 20 OAA in 2017). Assuming health, all four of Acuna, Inciarte, Ozuna, and Markakis should find their names on the lineup card most days.

With Acuna taking his spot in right, Markakis might be the guy who gets the most at-bats as the ostensible extra bat. But when southpaws take the hill, the Braves can rest some combination of Markakis/Inciarte while getting Duvall or Riley some run. Both mashed lefties in 2019.  Say they go with a straight left-right platoon: Markakis hit .298/.371/.446 vs. righties in 2019, and Duvall (small sample alert) hit .333/.386/.744 vs lefties. Even take Duvall’s career splits versus lefties (.240/.318/.473), and a leveraged platoon of Markakis and Duvall makes for a pretty potent designated hitter.

This post continues a recent series from MLBTR looking at designated hitters options for each team in the National League. Thus far we’ve covered the Cardinals, Reds, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Nationals, as well as the remaining free agent options.

Three Teams Who’ve Yet To Win Their Division

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It is somewhat amazing that there are three National League teams – one each for the West, East, and Central – that have yet to win their division.

Make no mistake, the American League has its share of heartbreak. The Mariners have yet to return to the playoffs after their 116-win season in 2001. The Rangers are far away as ever from capturing their first World Series after the so-close-you-can-taste-it near-misses of 2010 and 2011. Fans of the Astros and Red Sox have suffered different brands of heartbreak after the legitimacy of their recent winners was called into question. 

But in the National League, the Rockies, Marlins, and Pirates have never won their respective divisions.

Granted, the Pirates were crowned champs of the National League East 9 times, including a three-peat for Jim Leyland’s clubs from 1990 to 1992 and a title-winner way back in 1979 – but since they moved to the NL Central in 1994: goose eggs. That’s a 26-year-run without a divisional crown, a mark of futility eclipsed only by the Rockies and Marlins. Colorado and Florida both entered the league in 1993, and neither has landed the top spot in their division in the 27 seasons since. 

Back in the junior circuit, every team in the AL East has won since 2010 (Tampa Bay). In the Central, the White Sox have the longest drought (11 seasons), going back to their first-place finish in 2008. Everyone in the AL West has taken their turn at the top since 2012 – except the Mariners, of course, who won the division in 2001 and 1997.

But each division in the National League has its slow-and-steady competitor, so let’s take a quick look at each.

Colorado Rockies

Of these three clubs, the Rockies’ reputation took the fewest hits over the last 27 years. The Blake Street Bombers hold a particular place in baseball lore, and there’s a general sense of “unfortunate circumstances” around the Rox because of the thin air in Colorado. The impossibility of housing a winning pitching staff at Coors Field is baseball cliche now, but that doesn’t make the challenge any less potent.

Here’s what I wrote of Colorado in their Offseason In Review post back in March: “Colorado pitching, after all, has proven one of the more frustrating team-building challenges in the major leagues. The Sisyphean task of constructing even a league-average pitching staff at Coors Field persists year-after-year. Over the course of their 27-season history, the Rockies posted a league-average or better team ERA just three times (2010, 2009, 2007). In 2010, Jim Tracy’s 83-win squad finished with an exactly-league-average ERA, but those other two seasons — 2009, 2007 — happen to be two of the only three seasons in which the Rockies won 90 games in their history.”

Adding to the task at hand for Colorado, there’s at least a possibility that ownership believes this team is better than it is. They lost 91 games last year and have exhibited zero financial flexibility. If they end up losing close to 90 games again (or the equivalent in whatever kind of season is played in 2020), then the Rockies are still probably in the decline phase, not yet having rebooted into a full-blown rebuild. Rebuilds, of course, are time-intensive when done right, and very time-intensive when rushed.

The Rockies have made the postseason a handful of times, and they won the pennant in 2007, but they’re caught in no-man’s-land now. The Dodgers have won the division 7 years running, and Walker Buehler, Cody Bellinger, and company have plenty left in the tank. The Padres’ stable of young arms makes them one of the more intriguing up-and-coming teams in the league, and the Diamondbacks continue to impress with their ability to retool on the fly. After coming within a play-in game of taking the crown from the Dodgers in 2018, the Rockies might have missed their best shot.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins entered the league at a tough time to be a member of the NL East. The Atlanta Braves held a hammerlock on the division, taking the crown every season from 1995 until 2005 (they were in the NL West before that). To their credit, the Marlins made themselves into a competitive squad pretty quick, making the playoffs as a wild card in 1997, just their fifth season of existence. The organization made its name the year after, however, in selling off the pieces of their World Series winner and cratering into a 108-loss squad. After that horrid 1998 season, it took the Marlins five more years to get back to the playoffs again, at which point it was second-verse-same-as-the-first. They didn’t sink quite so fast or quite so far the second time around, but they also haven’t recovered (no playoff appearances since 2003).

That said, the Marlins have begun to see the light from their decade-plus in limbo. MLBTR’s own Mark Polishuk wrapped up the Marlins offseason back in March with this: “It’s a sign of progress, however, that the scorched-earth phase of the rebuild seems to be over.  Villar, Kintzler, or other veterans on short-term deals could well end up being moved at the trade deadline, but it doesn’t seem like younger talent is on the move…Miami seems ready to find out if the young players it already has in the fold could end up being part of that next Marlins winner, and it will be intriguing to see which of the pitchers and position players take that next step in 2020.”

The current era of Marlins baseball is best known for shepherding the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna out of town prior to the 2018 season. But they’re also a unique entrant on this mini-list because they won not just one, but two World Series titles over this span. Derek Jeter now helms the organization, and though they don’t have that face-of-the-franchise type player soaking up their spotlight, they’ve become increasingly competitive. Heading into whichever season of baseball comes next, they’ll have a decent collection of starting pitchers to keep them in games – with a smaller host of position player prospects nearing the majors. Whether they have that franchise-changing talent in the upper ranks is unclear. Business might not yet be booming in Miami, but it’s better. 

Pittsburgh Pirates

As stated above, it’s a bit unfair for the Pirates to be lumped in with the expansion clubs from the nineties, as they do have a history of success in the major leagues. They have 9 division crowns, 7 World Series appearances, and 5 World Series banners. But that’s all ancient history.

Since moving to the NL Central in 1994, the Pirates are a firm contender for the most moribund franchise in the sport. The departure of Barry Bonds after the 1992 season put an unfortunate face on their decline – much in the way that Babe Ruth’s departure doomed Boston baseball for so long – but there has been ample time to rebound from those back-to-back game 7 losses to Atlanta in 1991 and 1992.

In the time since the Pirates’ primary distinction is claiming the title for the longest streak of losing seasons in North American sports history. Forget about division titles. The Pirates weren’t able to finish over .500 one time from 1993 to 2012.

Pittsburgh fans finally had something to cheer for in 2013 when Clint Hurdle’s club broke through with 94 wins and a wild card berth. They even won that first playoff game against the division rival Cincinnati Reds and pushed another rival – the Cardinals – to five games in the NLDS. The club followed its star outfield of Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco to two more wild card berths in the following two seasons. Unfortunately, they were unable to get more than one playoff game in either of those years.

After finishing over .500 again in 2018, last season brought on a complete reset. Most of the organizations’ management turned over, and the remaining faces of those competitive clubs – Hurdle, Marte – were also sent packing. The organization is now in the hands of GM Ben Cherington, but they’re facing a complete philosophical overhaul. While they have talent, they’re not an easy club to put a timeline on returning to contention. Not until they put together a pitching staff with a more effective (and less pugilistic) philosophy. The division isn’t dominated by one team like the current AL West, but the Cardinals build a winner year after year, and the Cubs and Brewers aren’t far off in terms of their recent consistency.

Looking ahead, a shortened season in 2020 could open the window for a bizarre sort of division champ. All hope is not lost. On the whole, however, I don’t think there are a lot of pundits who would pick any of the Rockies, Marlins, or Pirates to breakthrough next season. Still, it’s bound to happen one day, right? All three teams will work to end their respective droughts, and in the meantime, thank goodness for the wild card.

(Poll link for app users.)

(Poll link for app users.)

 

Marcell Ozuna Discusses Cardinals, Qualifying Offer Decision

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Marcell Ozuna signed a one-year, $18MM deal with the Braves in January, after an offseason that saw the outfielder connected to multiple teams, including a potential reunion with the Cardinals.  Though he turned down the Cards’ one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer, “if I knew before it was going to happen like this, I would have taken it,” Ozuna told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  “But I wanted to make sure I had a chance (at a contract) for my career.”

As it happened, such an acceptable long-term offer didn’t materialize over the early weeks of the offseason, leading Ozuna and his representatives to pivot to the idea of a one-year deal and a quick return to free agency next winter without the burden of the draft pick compensation attached to his services for rejecting the QO.  (Players cannot be issued more than one qualifying offer in their career.)  Before taking Atlanta’s one-year deal, Ozuna turned several multi-year offers that were reportedly on the table, including a three-year/$50MM offer from the Reds.

There’s some obvious risk in Ozuna’s decision, as injury or a down year would erase his chances at landing another major long-term contract, and he’ll be re-entering the market heading into his age-30 season.  But, the outfielder is choosing to bet on himself to deliver a better platform year than in 2019, when he hit a solid but unspectacular .241/.328/.472 with 29 homers over 549 PA for the Cardinals, and missed over a month recovering from a fractured finger.

Ozuna made no secret of his desire to return to St. Louis, and after extensions talks proved fruitless last season, he and his agency (MDR Sports Management) remained in contact with the Cardinals “every time something moved” in his market, Ozuna said.

“If they offer a good offer, I would get it.  But they didn’t do it….I thought the Cardinals were going to offer something (early), but they didn’t do that after I rejected the qualifying offer,” Ozuna told Goold.  “So, I got patient. And I waited.  And I talked to my agent a lot of the time.  We were waiting — and then Atlanta was the team that gave me the opportunity for the one year and a good deal.  I had to do that.”

There don’t appear to be any hard feelings between Ozuna and the Cardinals, as he is “not disappointed” with how the winter played out.  “I feel like they did not give me the opportunity, so I had to walk away.  It’s business,” Ozuna said.

It ended up being a pretty quiet offseason for the Cardinals overall, who re-signed Adam Wainwright and Matt Wieters, and signed Kwang-Hyun Kim and Brad Miller but otherwise didn’t pull the trigger on any major moves, despite constant rumors.  The club’s one notable trade was a multi-player deal with the Rays that saw the Cardinals actually subtract from their Major League roster, moving Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to Tampa Bay.  At the time of that trade, there was some thought that St. Louis could be making room in its outfield to potentially accommodate Ozuna, but instead, the Cards were simply subtracting from an outfield picture that is still pretty crowded as we approach Opening Day.

It can certainly be argued that Ozuna represents a more proven MLB asset than any of Harrison Bader, Tommy Edman, Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas, Dylan Carlson, and Ozuna also seems like a better option at this point than veteran Dexter Fowler, who is entering his age-34 season and is coming three inconsistent years for the Cards.  However, with so many outfielders in the mix, the Cardinals were seemingly more comfortable with counting on some members of this group to emerge than they were in offering Ozuna even a one-year deal.

It’s interesting to speculate on how the shape of the offseason (for the Braves, Cardinals, and the free agent market as a whole) would have been altered had Ozuna indeed taken the Cards’ qualifying offer.  There was some thought last fall that he could be a candidate to take the $17.8MM deal, as two other notable would-be free agents — Jose Abreu (White Sox) and Jake Odorizzi (Twins) did with their respective teams.  However, given that the Cardinals’ interest in retaining Ozuna seemed lukewarm at best, it could be that St. Louis might not have issued the QO whatsoever if they thought there was a truly serious chance that Ozuna would accept.

Details On Reds’ Pursuit Of Marcell Ozuna

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It’s mostly of historical interest at this point, but the Reds’ pursuit of Marcell Ozuna was perhaps more spirited than was known at the time. The Cincinnati club offered him a three-year, $50MM contract, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

Though it is somewhat unusual for a player to turn down a similar annual salary over a longer term for one on a shorter term, that’s just what Ozuna did. He picked the Braves’ offer of one year and $18MM. Whether the Reds also would’ve considered a single-season arrangement isn’t clear.

For Ozuna, this was a calculated gamble — not unlike the one he took when he spurned the Marlins’ interest in an extension way back when. He’s still just 29 years of age and has shown rather an impressive offensive ceiling (143 wRC+ in 2017).

If Ozuna can turn in another campaign along those lines, he might well earn a much larger contract. Even if not, another solid effort could allow him to take down something close to or even in excess of what the Reds would’ve paid him. At the same time, there’s always risk — especially for a corner outfielder who has endured some shoulder problems and sagging numbers of late.

This bit of information is obviously also interesting because of its impact on the rest of the market. The Reds went on to strike a multi-year pact with Nick Castellanos, promising him $64MM over four seasons in a deal that he can opt out of after either of the first two campaigns.

It’s still a bit unclear how the market interplay between these players unfolded, but it was obviously a major factor. Notably, the Castellanos deal is far more desirable from the player’s perspective than that obtained by Ozuna from the Braves. After all, the former’s contract conveys both the upside of a possible return to the open market as well as long-term security. Unless Ozuna had another reason to prefer Atlanta, it stands to reason that his offer from the Reds did not include such generous opt-out opportunities.

Signing Ozuna cost a draft pick, it’s worth noting, since he turned down a qualifying offer from the Cardinals. He’s also no longer eligible to receive one in the future. The Reds might’ve been more comfortable with the structure they gave Castellanos since he did not cost a pick up front and remains eligible to receive a QO if he opts out (thus carrying the possibility of eventual draft compensation to the team).

Teams That Gained Or Lost Draft Picks Via Qualifying Offer Free Agents

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Now that Marcell Ozuna has signed, all 10 of the players who were issued a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer in November have settled on teams for the 2020 season.  Of that group, two (Jose Abreu of the White Sox and Jake Odorizzi of the Twins) accepted their qualifying offers and returned to their clubs — Abreu, in fact, topped off his QO by signing a contract extension that will run through the 2022 season.  Stephen Strasburg also isn’t changing uniforms, as the longtime Nationals ace rejected the club’s qualifying offer but eventually re-signed with Washington on a seven-year, $245MM deal.

That leaves us with seven QO players who will be playing on new teams in 2020, and as such, the draft compensation attached to those seven players has also now been allotted.  Under the rules of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the same compensation was handed out to all six teams who lost those players, as the entire sextet fell under the same financial criteria.  The Mets, Cardinals, Braves, Giants, Nationals, and Astros all aren’t revenue-sharing recipients, nor did they exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2019, so all six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft.

Here is how the so-called “Compensation Round” breaks down.  The order of the picks is determined by worst record-to-best record from the 2019 season.

68. Giants (for Madison Bumgarner)
69. Giants (for Will Smith)
70. Mets (for Zack Wheeler)
71. Cardinals (for Marcell Ozuna)
72. Nationals (for Anthony Rendon)
73. Braves (for Josh Donaldson)
74. Astros (for Gerrit Cole)

San Francisco now possesses five of the first 87 picks in next June’s draft.  With the Giants still in the NL wild card race last summer, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi opted to hang onto Bumgarner and Smith rather than trade either player, a decision that led to some criticism since San Francisco was widely considered to be closer to rebuilding than truly contending.  The critics’ judgement grew even harsher after the Giants went 22-32 record in August and September and fell well short of the postseason.  Still, given that teams were reluctant to part with top-flight young talent for even controllable players (let alone rentals like Bumgarner and Smith) at the trade deadline, Zaidi clearly felt that the two picks he could recoup from the qualifying offer process were more valuable than anything offered for the two Giants pitchers last July.

It’s worth noting that the 74th overall pick will be Houston’s first selection of the 2020 draft, after the Astros lost both their first- and second-highest selections in both 2020 and 2021 as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.  Since the Red Sox are also under league investigation for their own alleged use of electronics to steal opponents’ signs in 2018, Boston could also potentially lose at least one pick in this year’s draft, so we can’t yet say that the 2020 draft order is finalized.  Of course, the order could be further muddled if more trades occur involving picks from the two Competitive Balance Draft rounds, which are the only types of draft picks that can be traded.  We’ve already seen the Rays and Cardinals swap their picks in Rounds A and B as part of the multi-player trade that sent Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to Tampa Bay earlier this month.

Let’s now look at the six teams who signed the seven QO-rejecting free agents, and see what those clubs had to give up in order to make the signings.

Yankees, for signing Gerrit Cole: Since New York exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2019, they gave up their second- and fifth-round picks in the 2020 draft (a.k.a. their second- and fifth-highest selections).  The Yankees also gave up $1MM in funds from their international signing bonus pool.

Diamondbacks, for signing Madison Bumgarner: As a team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and was a revenue-sharing recipient, the D’Backs had to give up their third-highest draft choice to sign Bumgarner.  This ended up being Arizona’s second-round selection — the team’s first two picks are their first-rounder (18th overall) and their pick in Competitive Balance Round A (33rd overall).

Twins, for signing Josh Donaldson: Minnesota also received revenue-sharing and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold, so signing Donaldson put the Twins in position to give up their third-highest draft selection.  However, the Twins are actually giving up their fourth-highest pick in the 2020 draft, which is their third-round selection.  The Twins’ actual third selection is their pick in Competitive Balance Round B, but those picks aren’t eligible to be forfeited as compensation for QO free agent signings.

Angels, for signing Anthony Rendon: Since the Halos didn’t receive revenue-sharing funds and also didn’t pay any luxury tax money, they had to give up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K in international bonus funds to sign Rendon.

Phillies, for signing Zack Wheeler: The Phillies surrendered their second-highest selection (their second-round pick) and $500K of their international bonus pool, since they were another team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax line and didn’t receive revenue-sharing money.

Braves, for signing Will Smith and Marcell Ozuna: The dual signings put Atlanta in line for a dual penalty.  The Braves didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and also didn’t receive revenue-sharing money, so they gave up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K of international bonus money for Smith.  In landing Ozuna, the Braves then had to also forfeit their third-round pick (their third-highest selection) and another $500K from their international bonus pool.

Losing two draft picks and $1MM in international pool money isn’t nothing, though these particular sanctions had less impact on the Braves than on other teams, which undoubtedly influenced their decisions.  First of all, the compensatory pick Atlanta received for Donaldson is higher in the draft order than their third-round pick, so the net loss is only a second-round pick.  Secondly, the Braves’ movement in the international market is still limited by the punishment handed out by Major League Baseball in November 2017 for Atlanta’s past international signing violations.  Part of that punishment included the Braves’ pool for the 2020-21 international market being reduced by 50 percent — being so handcuffed in the international market anyway, the Braves probably felt $1MM in pool money was no great loss.

NL Notes: Braves, Acuna, Brewers, Urias, Nationals, Zimmerman, Payroll

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Atlanta Braves manager Brian Snitker has no intention of moving Ronald Acuna Jr. to the cleanup spot, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien (via Twitter). Even before the Marcell Ozuna signing, Snitker wasn’t entertaining removing Acuna from leadoff, where he excelled last season after a short stint in the middle of the order. Acuna has 15 leadoff home runs across his two seasons with the Braves and an overall batting line of .297/.380/.565 out of the leadoff spot. Acuna hardly struggled elsewhere in the lineup, but he’s certainly a luxury at the top of the order for the two-time defending NL East champs. With Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman and Marcell Ozuna presumably behind him in the order, there’s no particular need to mess with success. Let’s check in elsewhere in the National League…

  • Milwaukee Brewers infielder Luis Urias is returning stateside to have his left wrist examined, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Twitter links). Urias cut his winter ball season short upon experiencing soreness. The Brewers hope to have answers by the middle of next week, and surgery is a possibility. Though mention of surgery sets off alarm bells, the Brewers expect this to be a minor issue. Urias, of course, is looking to establish himself as a full-time big-leaguer in his first season with the Brewers. He put up 1.0 bWAR, but just 0.1 fWAR across 71 games of action as a rookie with the Padres in 2019.
  • Now that franchise cornerstone Ryan Zimmerman is back on an exceedingly affordable $2MM deal, the Nationals have financial flexibility under the tax, writes MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. Roster resource puts the Nats’ tax payroll at about $204MM, which doesn’t provide a ton of wiggle room under the $208MM tax line. Zuckerman figures it closer to $194MM, which is the number given by Cot’s Contracts, roughly $14MM under the tax line. Either way, the Nats have been a willing tax payer in the past, and after ducking under the line in 2019, they’re safe to exceed it again without extra penalty. Given the level of free agent available, however, the Nats are probable to enter the season – like their divisional mates in New York and Philadelphia – near the line with the ability to exceed it with midseason additions should they be close enough to push for the playoffs.

Anthopoulos On Donaldson, Ozuna, Rotation, Payroll

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The Braves took one of the last high-end free agents off the board when they inked Marcell Ozuna to a one-year, $18MM contract Tuesday, but the signing looks like a mere consolation prize for the team. After all, the Braves lost a better free agent the previous week when they saw third baseman Josh Donaldson agree to a four-year, $92MM pact with the Twins. The Braves prioritized re-signing Donaldson this offseason, general manager Alex Anthopoulos told Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Jeff Schultz of The Athletic in separate interviews, but they were simply unwilling to meet the Twins’ bid for the 34-year-old.

“I don’t blame him for a minute,” Anthopoulos said of Donaldson’s choice. “It’s a fantastic contract for him. He earned it. Would’ve loved to have him stay a Brave, but we ultimately had to make a decision. We felt like it was best for our club to go to a number and not go beyond that to get it done.”

In the end, the number Donaldson received “went north of where we thought it would be at the start of the offseason,” according to Anthopoulos, who added that “Josh gave us every opportunity to sign him back and every opportunity to get the deal done.” And Donaldson didn’t leave because of any payroll constraints hampering the Braves, per Anthopoulos, who noted the team “could’ve” matched the Twins’ offer. However, the executive just wasn’t comfortable doing so.

So now what for the Braves? Well, barring an unexpected trade for the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado or the Cubs’ Kris Bryant, it appears they’ll turn to Johan Camargo and Austin Riley – two third basemen who struggled last season – to pick up the slack at the hot corner. When they were trying to re-sign Donaldson, they were “also weighing the possibility that we would be blocking Riley or blocking Camargo from playing third base. That presents its own challenges,” Anthopoulos stated.

It’s anyone’s guess what the Braves will get from Camargo and Riley in 2020, but the addition of Ozuna should help cover for the loss of Donaldson’s offense to some extent. Anthopoulos acknowledged the Braves “likely” wouldn’t have signed Ozuna had they convinced Donaldson to come back, but Ozuna is nonetheless someone who excites the club. They believe Ozuna has untapped potential.

“Because of his stat line last year, we felt he was an undervalued player. We felt he was better than his .240 average and 29 home runs,” Anthopoulos said of Ozuna, who – for what it’s worth – was a Statcast darling in 2019. The 29-year-old ranked in the majors’ upper echelon in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage and expected weighted on-base average, to name a few key metrics.

Does the Ozuna acquisition mean the Braves will part with one of their outfielders (say, Ender Inciarte)? “I don’t think so,” Anthopoulos observed, noting there’s more room for extra options now that the league’s moving from a 25-man to a 26-man roster, and that “too many good players” is a high-class problem.

Elsewhere on their roster, the Braves made a noteworthy move earlier this offseason when they picked up left-hander Cole Hamels on a one-year, $18MM guarantee of his own. Now, although Anthopoulos opined that a team’s “never comfortable” with its rotation, he’s hopeful that “we can have one of our young guys or two take a step, like last year with (Max) Fried and (Mike) Soroka.”

Hamels, Fried, Soroka and Mike Foltynewicz look like shoo-ins to make up four-fifths of the Braves’ rotation at the start of the season, but the team did try to add another splashy name to the group earlier in the winter.

“We talked to some of the starters who got bigger, longer deals, whether that was (Hyun-Jin) Ryu, (Zack) Wheeler, Bumgarner,” Anthopoulos revealed. “We ultimately chose not to go to the same contract, whether it was length or total value.”

If the Braves’ rotation or some other part of their roster fails during the first few months of the season, perhaps the two-time defending NL East champions will find reinforcements leading up to the summer trade deadline. The Braves are already projected for a franchise-record Opening-Day payroll of $158MM – almost $45MM more than 2019’s season-starting outlay – but there may be more in the coffers. Anthopoulos said he “was given a quick yes” when he asked CEO Terry McGuirk for a spending increase during the prior two summers.

Marcell Ozuna Reportedly Turned Down Multi-Year Offers

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Before deciding to take a one-year deal with the Braves, outfielder Marcell Ozuna contemplated much lengthier arrangements with other teams, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links).

On the one hand, this is mostly academic. Ozuna is headed to Atlanta and the prior offers are off the table. On the other, there are actually some interesting forward-looking elements to this report.

First and foremost, it’s notable that Ozuna drew not only three-year but four-year offers, per Heyman. The offered money evidently wasn’t enough to sway the veteran from the $18MM he got for one year with the Braves, but it’s still an indication that the market has some appetite for a longer pact on this sort of player.

That’s probably good news for Nicholas Castellanos and Yasiel Puig. We just ran a poll regarding the former, with nearly four in ten respondents predicting an Ozuna-esque signing and most of the remainder guessing he’d secure much less than had been anticipated in a multi-year pact. Expectations on Castellanos were always tough to set and have continued to waver. But it’s at least somewhat easier to fathom a bigger, lengthier contract given this recent report.

It’s also a generally promising sign for Ozuna himself, who is now slated to return to free agency at the end of the upcoming season. He only just reached his 29th birthday and can certainly anticipate long-term interest the next time around — if he makes good on the prove-it contract he just inked.

Most interesting of all, perhaps, is the involvement of the Reds in the bidding. Long rumored to be kicking around the market for these bat-first corner outfielders, the club’s recent signing of Shogo Akiyama further stuffed its outfield mix and made a further addition seem unlikely. But Heyman says that the Cincinnati outfit “made a spirited try” to land Ozuna with a multi-year deal.

If indeed the Reds had serious interest in Ozuna, it adds to the plausibility of Heyman’s prior reporting on the team’s pursuit of Castellanos. There are abundant options on hand, but perhaps the club simply isn’t satisfied — or has its eyes on adding another piece to help facilitate a trade involving one or more of its existing outfielders. The theoretical possibilities are endless, adding to the intrigue of the remaining corner outfield market.

NL Central Notes: Castellanos, Ozuna, Pirates

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The Reds “remain a player” for free-agent outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The extent to which the Reds are interested is far from clear, though. Cincinnati has already signed Shogo Akiyama to a three-year deal and has Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker and Aristides Aquino atop an already deep list of incumbent outfield options. And, unlike the Rangers, who are also said to have interest in Castellanos, there’s no option of plugging him in at first base, where Joey Votto is entrenched in Cincinnati.

It’s difficult to envision much of a fit in Cincinnati unless Castellanos winds up taking a short-term deal along the lines of the one Marcell Ozuna signed in Atlanta just yesterday. Even if such an opportunity were to materialize for the Reds, they’d likely still need to move an outfielder to alleviate the logjam that’d come with signing Castellanos. Corner outfielders have had a hard time cashing in this winter, and the market for Castellanos looks rather limited at this point. If he and agent Scott Boras are willing to wait things out, it’s possible that an injury early in camp or a Cubs trade that sheds some cash will change his market’s landscape. At present, however, demand doesn’t exactly appear frenzied.

More from the division…

  • Marcell Ozuna asked his agent to initiate extension talks with the Cardinals in late June, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports, but the Cardinals seemingly didn’t have much interest in exploring such a deal. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak said over the summer that the team preferred to address Ozuna’s contract status in the offseason — even at a time when Ozuna was vocal in voicing that remaining in St. Louis was his “priority.” Tyler O’Neill and Lane Thomas as the top candidates to step into the left field void created by Ozuna’s absence, though Hummel adds that GM Mike Girsch listed first baseman/outfielder Rangel Ravelo and outfielder Justin Williams as players who’ll get consideration this spring. Cardinals fans can still hold out hope for a more notable addition, but owner Bill DeWitt Jr.’s recent comments strongly suggest that’s not on the horizon.
  • Retired closer Joel Hanrahan will serve as the pitching coach for the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate in 2020, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (via Twitter). Hanrahan held the same position with the Pirates’ Double-A club in 2019 and was the pitching coach with the organization’s Class-A Advanced affiliate back in 2017. It’s the latest step in a fairly swift rise through the system for Hanrahan — one that comes in spite of the offseason shakeup in the Pittsburgh front office. It stands to reason that whether it’s in Pittsburgh or elsewhere, Hanrahan’s rapidly growing resume will earn him some consideration for a big league coaching spot.
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