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The Rangers’ Surprising Problem

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Each week at MLBTR, it seems we're covering a development that further tanks the Astros' chances of competing for a playoff spot. We've devoted less attention to their in-state rivals, but the Rangers are in no better a situation. Texas and Houston have identical 33-40 records after the Rangers' five-game losing streak. They're only four games clear of the Angels for fourth place in the AL West.

Texas starting the season slowly isn't a huge surprise in itself (even if the extent of their struggles is). The eye-opener is in the way the team has underperformed. The Rangers opened the season without Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tyler Mahle. They were largely trying to stay afloat for the first couple months before welcoming that trio of starters back throughout the summer. The early-season rotation was the big question -- the main reason the Rangers might find themselves closer to the bottom of the AL West than the top more than halfway into June.

Starting pitching has not been the problem. Texas is middle-of-the-pack in that regard, solid work from a staff without three of its most talented arms. The collapse has been on the other side of the ball. The Ranger offense hasn't performed. An outfield that looked like one of the game's most talented groups has been a disaster. It's not the easiest problem for GM Chris Young to address at the deadline -- if the Rangers find themselves in position to add at all next month.

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Fantasy Baseball: Prospect Fever

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Hello friends.

Unfortunately, we have to start with some bad news - I have a fever. And judging by the questions coming in during our weekly Monday chats, a lot of you have one too. But good news! The only prescription for the aforementioned fever is more prospects and we have those in spades. Or even bells*, one might say.

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The Jesus Luzardo Alternative Who *Should* Be Available Next Month

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Find virtually any primer for the 2024 trade deadline and you'll see Jesus Luzardo's name at or near the top of the discussion. He's probably even the feature image on many of those pieces. It's not hard to see why. A hard-throwing 26-year-old lefty with two seasons of club control beyond the current campaign and big strikeout abilities is always going to be in demand. And the Marlins, sitting at 23-48 on the season, have effectively been out of postseason contention since the second week of the season. A 1-12 start to the year will do that to you.

Luzardo might be the most talked-about name on the trade market this summer and has a far better chance to move than your standard prime-aged starting pitcher with two-plus seasons of club control. The Marlins already traded Luis Arraez in early May, after all. They're clearly open for business.

Nearly everything I just said about Luzardo applies to another lefty on the opposite coast. And yet for all the Luzardo chatter we've already heard and will continue to hear, the trade buzz between the two southpaws doesn't align.

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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut

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Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today at 2:00pm central, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on Luis Robert's trade value, late-game bullpen possibilities for the Yankees and Cubs, the Astros' decision to move on from José Abreu, Alex Bregman's free agent projection, the cost to extend Tarik Skubal and much more.

 

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The Astros’ Problematic Long-Term Outlook

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The Astros' recent run of success if one of the most remarkable in MLB history. Yes, what everyone now knows about their 2017 season will taint that legacy for many, but Houston has since won a second World Series, appeared in two more, and made the American League Championship Series every single year since 2017. Trash can jokes will never go out of style for some, but what the Astros have accomplished across multiple GMs and multiple managers in the past seven years is objectively incredible.

As we sit more than 40% of the way through the 2024 season, however, it's becoming increasingly apparent that times could be changing. Houston sits 8.5 games back of the Mariners in the American League West and would also need to leapfrog the defending World Series champion Rangers to get back into the division race. The Wild Card scene isn't all that much better. Houston is 5.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot, but with five teams standing between them and that potential playoff berth. The roster has been decimated by injuries.

At least at the moment, 2024 doesn't look to be the Astros' year. However, the bigger problem for the Astros isn't necessarily what lies ahead in the final three and a half months of the current season, but rather what looms beyond that point. Because when I say "times could be changing," I'm not referring to a simple one-year hiatus from their typically deep postseason runs. When it comes to the Astros, they're facing far larger and far more concerning long-term questions.

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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Judge, Luis Robert Jr., Reds, Pirates, Royals

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It's time to crack open the MLB mailbag!  This week we get into a potential position change for Aaron Judge, possible Luis Robert Jr. trade packages, the AL Cy Young race, possible targets for the Reds, Pirates, and Royals, and much more.

Casey asks:

When Anthony Rizzo's contract runs out with the Yanks, do they move Judge to first? (He's tall enough to make a great stretch, should lower his injury risk and it makes room for Jasson Dominguez or Spencer Jones.)

The Yankees clearly won't be picking up Rizzo's club option for 2025, so he'll be a free agent after this season.  Judge, meanwhile, is signed through 2031 yet will turn 33 in April of next year.

It's so hard to take a competent outfielder and move him down the defensive spectrum with seven years left on his large contract.  On the other hand, that's similar to what the Phillies did with Bryce Harper, ending his time as an outfielder at age 30 with nine years left on his deal.  I never really understood that decision or why the Phillies weren't questioned more on it.  Here's what Harper said in February:

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The Orioles Need More Out Of Center Field

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The Orioles have been one of the sport's best teams. They've won two-thirds of their games and trail only the Phillies and Yankees in overall record. A lot has gone right -- from an MVP-caliber performance out of Gunnar Henderson to a Jordan Westburg breakout and quietly excellent performances from Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O'Hearn (the latter of whom MLBTR's Steve Adams will spotlight later this week).

No team is perfect, though, and the O's go into deadline season with a couple questions. Their rotation depth has taken hits with the losses of John Means and Tyler Wells. The back end of the bullpen could be a bit shaky, especially if Danny Coulombe misses time with an elbow injury. Most surprisingly, the Orioles have had one of the least productive center field situations in the majors. Cedric Mullins was a top ten finisher in MVP voting a couple years back. He's now arguably the only question mark in one of the game's deepest lineups.

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Fantasy Baseball: Buying The Dip

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Hello friends.

I always preach patience when it comes to slow starters, but once we get out of May it's officially time to start questioning if what we've seen so far is what we'll be getting for the rest of the season.

For those already rostering these slowpokes, it is a matter of deciding whether it's worth it to keep holding them and root for positive regression, or whether you should abandon all hope and try to ship them out for whatever loose change you can find. And if you don't have any early-season disappointments, it's about whether you should be bargain hunting and betting on the come, looking to acquire the early-round duds whose presence is currently infuriating one of your fellow managers.

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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut

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Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

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