Under-The-Radar Bullpen Trade Candidates
A number of relievers move every deadline season. Almost every contender could at least upgrade upon the seventh or eighth man in their bullpen. Others urgently need to bring in one or more high-leverage pieces. Teams outside the playoff picture are usually willing to field offers on their relievers, particularly on middle innings arms.
This summer's market will feature a few obvious names. Carlos Estévez and Tanner Scott are good impending free agent closers on bad teams. They're going to move. Yimi García, John Brebbia, Luis García, Dylan Floro, Scott Alexander, T.J. McFarland, Derek Law and Jalen Beeks are affordable rental middle relievers on clubs that are at best fringe contenders. They could each go for a mid-tier prospect. Hunter Harvey, Kyle Finnegan and Michael Kopech -- each of whom are controllable through 2025 -- have already been the subject of trade rumors. So has A's breakout closer Mason Miller, although Oakland would need to be blown away to move him with another five years of team control.
Those are some of the more obvious options. Most teams will cast an even wider net, though, identifying a few players of interest who aren't prototypical trade candidates. There are typically a couple controllable relievers who find themselves on the move even if they weren't the subject of many pre-deadline rumors. Scott Effross and Colin Holderman fit that bill a couple years ago. Jose Cuas, Peter Strzelecki and Manuel Rodríguez were dealt at last summer's deadline.
Predicting long shot trade candidates is by definition going to lead to more misses than hits. Most of the following players will still be on their current teams come August. Yet I'll try to identify a few controllable bullpen pieces who have a small but realistic chance to be traded in the next couple weeks.
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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Skubal, Cardinals, Verdugo, Chisholm
In this week's mailbag, I get into a possible extension for Tarik Skubal, potential fits for Ivan Herrera and Alex Verdugo, and many more trade-related questions.
Kevin asks:
Is a short term extension possible? Tarik will make about 30 million in arbitration for 2025 and 2026. What if Detroit offered him 100 million for 2025/26/27 and 28 ? Slight two year delay for Tarik but money in hand and manageable amount for Detroit. Thoughts?
Skubal, perhaps the current favorite for the AL Cy Young award, turns 28 in November. As Kevin said, the lefty has two more years of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency in advance of his age-30 season.
Skubal is a Boras client, but there is reason for him to consider locking in a big payday now. His 2022 season ended on August 1 due to something alternately called forearm inflammation and then just "left arm fatigue." He went on to have flexor tendon surgery on August 17 of that year. As a result, Skubal's 2023 debut was on July 4th, and he returned a different pitcher. He averaged 94.29 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball in 2022, and after he returned from surgery the following year, that was up to 95.81. He started throwing his four-seamer more and his strikeout rate leapt forward, turning Skubal into one of the game's best pitchers.
This year, Skubal's fastball velocity has climbed further still, up to 96.99 mph. Since June 19th, he's at 97.47. In very Jacob deGrom-like fashion, Skubal is now throwing a full three mph faster than he was before his surgery.
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Fantasy Baseball: Incoming Prospect Power
Hello friends.
We're not yet to the MLB-sanctioned halfway mark but we are past that point going by games played. The biggest prospect names of the preseason have mostly made their way to the bigs but much like time remains undefeated, so too are there always more prospects.
Going by the questions in my weekly chat here at MLBTR (every Monday at 12 pm EST), much attention remains focused on our ever-changing answer of "Who's next?" Who are the next big prospects to get called up but also who are the ones that maybe my league-mates might not be paying attention to? And when?
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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut
Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Due to the Fourth of July, Darragh McDonald covered the weekly Front Office chat for Anthony Franco.
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Which Other Postseason Hopefuls Might Have Arms To Spare?
The Rays made a somewhat unconventional trade Wednesday, shipping right-hander Aaron Civale to the Brewers in exchange for infield prospect Gregory Barrios. Tampa Bay had the luxury of moving a current member of its rotation despite the fact that the team is still in the Wild Card race and still harbors postseason aspirations. That's due primarily to the organizational depth in the rotation, which was thin earlier in the season but is deepening as the year wears on and as injured arms like Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and (eventually) Drew Rasmussen reenter the fold. Baz will step into the Rays' rotation in Civale's place this Friday.
Most teams don't have that type of cushion. Starting pitching is always at a premium, and starters -- particularly those with multiple years of club control remaining -- tend to be the most coveted asset at nearly every MLB trade deadline.
And yet, the Rays aren't the only club that's poised to operate in this capacity over the next 27 days. There are a handful of teams who could walk the line of dealing from the big league roster -- specifically the rotation -- despite hoping to find themselves playing a prominent role in October baseball. Let's take a look at some possibilities.
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Fantasy Baseball: NL Bad Team Roundup
Hello friends.
After sashaying our way through the AL graveyard last week, it's time to hit the senior circuit and try to glean what we can about where the new and old fantasy values may lie come the trade deadline.
But here's the thing about the National League - they might only have three or four real championship contenders but they have a whole mess of teams that probably aren't good enough to realistically do any damage in the postseason but aren't so bad that they can sell selling to their fanbase. So, they'll do what mediocre teams like this do every year; be buyers of discounted parts that won't actively change their championship futures, when they should be sellers in a market mostly devoid of great pieces.
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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Cubs, Dodgers, Cardinals, Mets
This week's mailbag covers the Cubs trading an outfielder, what the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Mets might do at the deadline, Kevin Gausman's decline, and much more. Let's get into it!
Kyle asks:
Would the Chicago Cubs consider selling Seiya Suzuki at the deadline? What would it cost the Mariners to acquire him?
Robert asks:
Given their contracts and relative underperformance, would there be any takers for Seiya Suzuki or Ian Happ if the Cubs decide to sell? If so, could they get anything decent in return? Anyone else on the Cubs that could fetch anything worthwhile?
Brandon asks:
Do you forecast a strong trade market for Cody Bellinger?
The key factor to consider here is that Suzuki and Happ were given full no-trade clauses as an enticement to sign. That doesn't necessarily make a player immovable. But for example, if Suzuki simply doesn't want to play in Seattle under any circumstances, that's that. A lot of times, though, players don't want to stay if they're not wanted, and some sort of bonus can be negotiated for accepting a trade.
Suzuki, 30 in August, has matched his career average with a 122 wRC+ this season. Despite increased strikeouts, he hit the ball well in June. His right field defense has been subpar, but not a total killer. He's been something short of a 3-WAR player per 140 games. The Cubs, certainly hoping for a breakout after Suzuki's scorching finish last year, have instead gotten more of a solid regular who needs the occasional IL trip. He's earning $20MM this year and $36MM from 2025-26.
If Suzuki has surplus value relative to his contract, it isn't much, though the trade market isn't teeming with solid regulars. The Mariners have a bunch of 45-50 grade prospects a bit down their list that I think could net a player like Suzuki.
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The Risk/Reward Of Acquiring Players With Opt-Outs
With four weeks until the trade deadline, a lot remains uncertain. Most teams still find themselves in a muddled middle and will wait until the last few days to determine how aggressively they'll buy or sell. That's especially true in the National League, where nine teams are within six games of one another as they fight for the final two Wild Card spots. The Mets, Giants and Cubs are among those borderline contenders. It wouldn't be especially surprising to see any of them wind up as sellers depending on how they play over the next few weeks.
The Mets are the NL's top non-playoff team and approaching the deadline as a buyer for the moment. Dropping a few games back in the standings by the end of the month could change that mentality. San Francisco and Chicago are a little further out and perhaps likelier sellers. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested late last week that the team would need to perform better to avoid a sell-off. Why focus on those three specifically? Each has a notable player who'd be desirable trade candidates if not for their contract structures.
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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut
Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.
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