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The Risk/Reward Of Acquiring Players With Opt-Outs

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With four weeks until the trade deadline, a lot remains uncertain. Most teams still find themselves in a muddled middle and will wait until the last few days to determine how aggressively they'll buy or sell. That's especially true in the National League, where nine teams are within six games of one another as they fight for the final two Wild Card spots. The Mets, Giants and Cubs are among those borderline contenders. It wouldn't be especially surprising to see any of them wind up as sellers depending on how they play over the next few weeks.

The Mets are the NL's top non-playoff team and approaching the deadline as a buyer for the moment. Dropping a few games back in the standings by the end of the month could change that mentality. San Francisco and Chicago are a little further out and perhaps likelier sellers. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested late last week that the team would need to perform better to avoid a sell-off. Why focus on those three specifically? Each has a notable player who'd be desirable trade candidates if not for their contract structures.

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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut

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Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

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The Cubs Keep Trying The Same Thing, And It’s Not Working

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While the Cubs' 2024 season got out to a strong start that saw them sitting a season-high seven games above .500 on May 12, things have spiraled quickly. Since opening the year 24-17, Chicago has played at an abysmal 14-27 clip. That's six and a half weeks of .341 ball that has dropped them to 38-44 -- last place in the National League Central. They're 10.5 games back of the Brewers for the division lead. A four-game deficit in the NL Wild Card race normally wouldn't seem insurmountable, but it's a bit more daunting when a whopping seven teams stand between them and the final Wild Card spot.

There's no shortage of flaws with the current iteration of the Cubs. They're tied for 21st in the majors in home runs, tied for 18th in runs scored and tied for 24th in both batting average and slugging percentage. They've received no production at all from their catchers. On the pitching side, the rotation has had its share of health-related struggles. Justin Steele missed all of April and another start in May. Javier Assad just joined fellow young starters Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks on the injured list. The Cubs' defense has been middle-of-the-pack, at best.

There's one glaring struggle that's plagued them again and again in recent years, however, and one of the driving reasons behind it is easy to see.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on the appeal of going underslot in the draft, the Rockies' pitching development challenges, Guardians' outfield targets, Jurickson Profar's market value, Ben Cherington's GM tenure in Pittsburgh, the Tigers' deadline approach, whether teams can move more pitchers from the bullpen to the rotation, and much more.

 

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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Francisco Alvarez, Hoerner, Crochet, And More

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This week's mailbag gets into a potential Francisco Alvarez extension, trading Nico Hoerner, valuing Garrett Crochet, potential outfield additions for the Braves, and much more.  Let's get into it!

Ben asks:

What would be a fair contract extension for the Mets and Francisco Alvarez? He is so talented and a great leader for such a young kid, have to imagine he will get expensive in arbitration.

I wrote an answer to this and then ran it by Steve Adams, Anthony Franco, and Darragh McDonald.  They threw cold water on some outlandish contract ideas I had for the Mets' young catcher.

Comparable contracts are lacking for Alvarez.  I don't think comps need to be catcher-specific, especially because there are so few good ones.  The Buster Posey and Joe Mauer deals are too old.  Will Smith signed with four years of service and the Dodgers got his age 29-37 seasons, with a luxury tax dodge as a core feature.

One that comes to mind in the 2+ class, where Alvarez will be after the season, is Andres Gimenez.  He signed a seven year, $106.5MM extension.  Some of the other MLBTR writers see this as something of a ceiling for Alvarez, and I assume the Mets would feel similarly.  At present, I'll take the over on that.

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Fantasy Baseball: AL Bad Team Roundup

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Hello friends.

With the first half nearly in the rearview mirror, it's a good time to go around the league and take the fantasy heartbeats of our 30 possible champions.* Wait, Nicklaus - aren't you jumping the gun quite a bit? Everyone knows the All-Star Break isn't for three weeks, so what are you playing at? Well, real hoopers know that the truth is in the games played, and by that measure, all teams will cross the 81-game threshold by the end of this week, with all but five clubs having already reached 78 games.

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The Rotation Trade Market Takes Two More Hits

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The past few days haven't been good for teams looking to acquire controllable starting pitching. On Friday, Angels southpaw Patrick Sandoval came out of his start shaking his arm. The Halos put him on the 15-day injured list the next day with an elbow strain. One day later, the Marlins announced that Jesús Luzardo was being shut down with a lumbar stress reaction in his back. Miami almost immediately put him on the 60-day injured list -- ruling him out into August.

Sandoval hasn't officially been ruled out beyond the early part of July, but it's hard to imagine he's looking at a minimal IL stint. Within 48 hours, two of the most talented controllable starting pitchers who could've plausibly been available instead very likely came off the trade market. (Players can still be traded while on the injured list, but it'd be such a sell-low on either pitcher that Sandoval and Luzardo would almost certainly stay put.)

Starting pitching injuries have been an unfortunate storyline throughout the season. Almost every team has been impacted, leaving all but a handful of contenders looking for rotation help over the next five weeks. Barring injuries of their own, the Mariners, Phillies and perhaps Yankees could feel great about the strength of their rotation. Everyone else has at least one or two points on which they could upgrade. Milwaukee, Houston, Baltimore, Atlanta, San Diego, Arizona and St. Louis could go into deadline season viewing the rotation as their top priority.

There aren't enough healthy starters to go around. Teams like the D-Backs and Reds came up empty in rotation pursuits at the '23 trade deadline. That'll be the case for a handful of teams yet again, particularly with two more arms more or less off the board. The White Sox are even more firmly positioned to dominate the market for controllable starting pitching, while the dwindling supply could provide an opportunity for a team like the Rockies or Rays to get good value for a mid-rotation type.

There are a handful of impending free agents who could change hands -- Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi and Luis Severino among them. Flaherty looks to have pulled to the top of the rental starter group. The supply of starters under control beyond the 2024 campaign is dwindling, though. Let's take stock of that market:

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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut

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Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today at 3:00pm central, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on the Mariners' deadline, a hypothetical A's/Pirates trade involving JJ Bleday and Jack Suwinski, the Yankees' priorities this summer, whether the Nationals will push for a top-of-the-market free agent, baseball podcast recommendations and more.

 

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MLB Mailbag: Astros, Cubs, Mariners, Cardinals, Nats, Chisholm

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I’m pinch-hitting for MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes for this week’s edition of the MLBTR Mailbag. This week, we'll look at Houston's dreadful first base situation, the Cubs' recent struggles, the Mariners' recent surge, the Cardinals' needs, the Nationals' deadline outlook, Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s trade value, and more!

Reynold asks:

There are a number of first basemen on the discard pile. If you were [Astros GM] Dana Brown, do you pick any of those suspects over Jon Singleton? J.D. Davis, Garrett Cooper, etc?

Singleton is a pretty remarkable comeback story, and for him to even make it to the majors at all after such a lengthy hiatus -- let alone find himself in a regular role -- is commendable. Sentimentality doesn't win games, however, and Singleton is a 32-year-old subpar defender whose .219/.319/.331 batting line is below average and nowhere near strong enough to offset his lack of value with the glove. I'm as surprised as most Astros fans that the team is still trotting him out there.

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