Cafardo’s Latest: Stanton, BoSox, Donaldson, Yanks, Otani
The first-place Red Sox‘s success this year has come despite a lack of power (they entered Saturday 26th in the majors in home runs and 27th in ISO), leading Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe to argue that they have to pursue Giancarlo Stanton in the offseason. It’s unclear whether the new Marlins ownership group will shop the right fielder and potential 60-home run man, but Cafardo contends that a Red Sox offer consisting of left fielder Andrew Benintendi, left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez and a pitching prospect would grab the attention of Derek Jeter & Co. As great as Stanton has been this year, it’s tough to imagine Boston parting with Benintendi, a top-flight rookie who won’t even be eligible for arbitration until after the 2019 campaign. Stanton, meanwhile, is still due another $295MM from 2018-28, and his contract includes full no-trade rights and an opt-out clause after the 2020 campaign.
More from Cafardo:
- It won’t be a surprise if the Blue Jays shop third baseman Josh Donaldson in the offseason, per Cafardo. Donaldson, 31, will enter a contract year in 2018, one that will see him make $17MM. While Donaldson has missed a large chunk of time this year for a Jays team that has had a terrible 2017, he’s in the midst of yet another highly productive season, having slashed .253/.379/.515 with 23 home runs in 396 plate appearances.
- Yankees general manager Brian Cashman went to Japan last week to watch two-way sensation Shohei Otani, a right-handed ace and left-handed slugger who could head the majors in the offseason. Thanks to some recent trades, the Yankees have boosted their international pool money total from $4.75MM to $8MM, which could help them reel in the 23-year-old if he does become available in the next few months.
- Speaking of Cashman, if he’s still the Yankees GM after the season (his contract is set to expire), it’s possible he’ll be able to move outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury in a trade, Cafardo writes. The recipient of a seven-year, $153MM contract prior to 2014, the ex-Boston star has disappointed and become a superfluous piece in New York, which looks set in the outfield with Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks and Clint Frazier in the fold. The 33-year-old Ellsbury still has around $68MM left on his deal (including a $5MM buyout in 2021), but Cafardo suggests that the Yankees could get rid of him if they’re willing to retain approximately half of that money.
Knocking Down The Door: Anderson, Gonsalves, Lopez, Maples, Walker
“Knocking Down the Door” is a regular feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.
Brian Anderson, 3B, Miami Marlins (Triple-A New Orleans) | Marlins Depth Chart
Since a mid-July promotion to Triple-A New Orleans, the 24-year-old Anderson has been hitting like someone who knows he’s auditioning for a Major League job. In 29 Pacific Coast League games, the right-handed hitting third baseman is slashing .350/.420/.631 with eight home runs and 12 multi-hit games.
Dee Gordon and Martin Prado will presumably be on the trade block this offseason, and the Marlins wouldn’t pull the trigger on dealing either player without knowing if they have a potential in-house replacement (Prado could move to second base if Gordon is traded). If there is a Marlins prospect who is a candidate to step into a starting role in 2018, it would be Anderson, a former third-round draft pick. Calling him up in the near future and giving him 100+ plate appearances would give the Marlins a much better idea of how capable he is of becoming their starting third baseman next season.
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Stephen Gonsalves, SP, Minnesota Twins (Triple-A Rochester) | Twins Depth Chart
A shoulder injury that pushed Gonsalves’ season debut to mid-May could be a blessing in disguise for him and the Twins. While most starting pitching prospects are usually close to their innings limit in August and not expected to contribute much at the Major League level in September and beyond, Gonsalves is at 109 2/3 innings after his latest start. Considering that he threw 140 innings during a breakout 2016 in which he appeared very much on the fast track to the Major Leagues, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s pitching for the playoff-contending Twins late this season.
The 23-year-old lefty was recently promoted to Triple-A following a dominant 28-start stint in Double-A (161 2/3 IP, 2.28 ERA, 6.1 H/9, 3.3 BB/9, 10.3 K/9) over the past two seasons. After posting back-to-back quality starts, Gonsalves struggled in his third Triple-A outing before bouncing back with another stellar effort over the weekend (6 IP, ER, 7 H, BB, 6 K). The Twins are currently in possession of a Wild Card berth with Bartolo Colon and Dillon Gee serving as their fourth and fifth starters, respectively. If they’re going to hold on, they might need to turn to their farm system one more time. Gonsalves could be the difference maker.
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Jose Lopez, SP, Cincinnati Reds (Double-A Pensacola) | Reds Depth Chart
The 23-year-old Lopez is only three months removed from pitching in the High-A Florida State League, but there are already several reasons to believe that he’s not far away from the Majors. After allowing 15 earned runs in his first 27 innings with Double-A Pensacola, the right-hander has been one of the best pitchers in the Minor Leagues. In his last 10 starts, he has a 1.24 ERA with 4.8 H/9, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9. He’s completed at least six innings and hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs or five hits over that span.
During Lopez’s first crack at the upper minors, he’s shown an ability to make adjustments, miss bats, throw strikes and pitch deep into games—he has a 68.5% strike rate and hasn’t thrown more than 96 pitches in any of his 10 consecutive quality starts. Tyler Mahle, who made this list on May 1st and June 27th, became the 15th Reds’ pitcher to make a start in 2017 when he made his MLB debut yesterday. Lopez deserves to be the 16th.
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Dillon Maples, RP, Chicago Cubs (Triple-A Iowa) | Cubs Depth Chart
The Cubs appeared to solidify what was already a deep and talented bullpen by acquiring lefty Justin Wilson at the trade deadline. Wilson has been mostly ineffective, however, while the team’s other key relievers have been unreliable, to put it kindly, over the past few weeks. It’s not quite a major area of concern at this point, considering the track record of the group, but it’s probably alarming enough to at least take a look at adding a reinforcement from the Minors, even one that began the season in High-A.
Maples’ rise didn’t begin immediately after the team converted him to a reliever a few years back. His numbers out of the ‘pen were unimpressive in 46 appearances in the low minors from 2015-16, but something has apparently clicked in 2017. In 51 appearances across three levels, including his last 16 with Triple-A Iowa, the 25-year-old has a 2.74 ERA, 6.2 H/9 and 14.3 K/9. The walks are a concern (5.3 BB/9), but he’s only walked more than one batter in three of his combined 30 appearances in the upper minors. It’s also worth noting that Carl Edwards Jr. had a 6.0 BB/9 in 24 Triple-A appearances last season but went on to finish the year as one of the best relievers on the World Series champs.
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Christian Walker, 1B/LF, Arizona Diamondbacks (Triple-A Reno) | Diamondbacks Depth Chart
Walker’s already difficult path to the Majors could not have taken a worse turn during the past offseason. With limited at-bats available in Baltimore behind Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo, the right-handed hitting first baseman was designated for assignment in February. The likelihood of a better opportunity lied ahead. But it never came. By the time the regular season started, he had been claimed on waivers by three different teams—Braves, Reds and Diamondbacks—that employed superstar first basemen who rarely miss a game. In late March, he was designated for assignment a fourth time, only to clear waivers and remain with the Diamondbacks.
To his credit, the 26-year-old did not let the limited opportunity and removal from the 40-man roster affect him at the plate. After putting up what would be slightly below-average numbers for a first baseman in Triple-A during parts of the previous three seasons, Walker has taken his game to another level in 2017. In 565 plate appearances, he’s been the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A version of Paul Goldschmidt, slashing .312/.384/.609 with 32 homers and 34 doubles. While the Pacific Coast League is more hitter-friendly than the International League, where Walker played previously, his improved walk and strikeout rates (145 BB, 406 K from ’14-16; 58 BB, 97 K in ’17) are indications that a better approach at the plate has helped lead to his success.
A September call-up is in the cards as the D-backs have gotten very little from their pinch-hitters in ’17 (.636 OPS), but they’d also do Walker a huge favor by either trading him in the offseason to a team where he has a chance to play or removing him from the 40-man roster—assuming he’s added in September—so he can opt for free agency.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Giants Have Reportedly Expressed Strongest Interest In Giancarlo Stanton
The Phillies, Cardinals and Rangers are among the teams that have reached out to the Marlins to express interest in slugger Giancarlo Stanton, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale cites a “high-ranking Marlins executive” in reporting that the Giants are the club that has expressed the most interest.
Miami has surged back to within striking distance of an NL Wild Card spot (largely due to Stanton’s recent heroics), so Stanton won’t be changing hands until this offseason, at the earliest. However, despite the recent offensive spike — Stanton is hitting .356/.462/.925 with 29 homers in his past 47 games — there are still numerous obstacles to a potential Stanton swap. Stanton’s 13-year contract affords him full no-trade protection, and Nightengale adds that not one prospective trade partner has expressed a willingness to absorb the remaining 10 years and $295MM on Stanton’s contract beyond the 2017 season.
Beyond that, the Giants’ minor league system is not very well regarded. Tyler Beede entered the year as the top pitching prospect in San Francisco’s minor league ranks, but he’s had a poor season in Triple-A this year (albeit in a very hitter friendly environment). He’s now likely to miss the final two months of the season with a groin injury. Fellow right-hander Joan Gregorio posted a 3.04 ERA in 74 Triple-A innings but carried some questionable secondary metrics and saw his season end in early July due to a PED suspension.
On paper, the Giants make a fair amount of sense as a trading partner for Stanton. San Francisco, as a team, ranks dead last in the Majors with 101 home runs this season. Stanton alone has nearly half that number, while the 29th-ranked Padres have out-homered the Giants by 25. That lack of pop is all the more glaring at a time when home runs are being hit at a record pace throughout the league.
More specifically, the Giants’ outfield has been the worst in baseball this year by measure of slugging percentage, OPS and fWAR. They rank 29th in on-base percentage, ISO and wRC+ as well. Incumbent right fielder Hunter Pence will turn 35 next April and has struggled to a career-worst .254/.306/.378 batting line through 431 plate appearances this season. Stanton would provide a thunderous jolt to any lineup he joined, but there’s very arguably no team that has a more acute need for his skill set than the Giants.
As for the Phillies, there may not be a team in baseball that can better handle his contract from a financial standpoint. Philadelphia’s only long-term commitment at present is to Odubel Herrera, and they have a history of lofty payrolls when contending. The Cardinals have been rumored to be in the market for an impact bat to place in the middle of their lineup since June, and the Rangers have little certainty in their outfield mix beyond 2017.
All of this, of course, is putting the cart before the horse. There’s no guarantee that the new Marlins ownership group will be in a rush to trade Stanton on the heels of the best season of his excellent young career. Doing so would come with massive public relations repercussions and could start the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter-led ownership group out on the wrong foot with a fan base that has long harbored a potent distrust of previous owner Jeffrey Loria. That’s especially true when considering the fact that the Marlins would likely have to pay Stanton’s contract down to the point where an interested partner felt it carried enough surplus value not only to acquire Stanton but also to part with well-regarded young talent.
The Marlins’ preference under new ownership, according to Nightengale, is to keep the payroll around $100MM, and Stanton’s salary will jump to $25MM next season. He’ll be paid $26MM in both 2019 and 2020, after which he can opt out of the remaining seven years of the deal. If he forgoes the opt-out, Stanton will be paid $29MM in 2021-22, $32MM in 2023-25, $29MM in 2026 and $25MM in 2027. Stanton’s contract also includes a $25MM option for the 2018 season, which comes with a $10MM buyout.
NL Notes: Brewers, Marlins, Rockies, Reds
Brewers minor league infielder Julio Mendez suffered a cardiac event after being hit by a pitch during a rookie-level game Saturday in Tempe, Ariz., the team announced (Twitter link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). The 20-year-old Mendez is currently in critical but stable condition at a Tempe hospital. “All of our thoughts and prayers are with Julio and his family,” Brewers general manager David Stearns said in a statement. “We will provide updates as soon as we know more.”
MLBTR joins the rest of the baseball world in wishing Mendez the best.
Here’s some lighter news from around the NL:
- Trading right fielder Giancarlo Stanton and his massive contract would improve the Marlins’ financial situation, but dealing the franchise cornerstone shouldn’t be a consideration for the Derek Jeter-led ownership group that will soon take over in Miami, Buster Olney of ESPN opines. Just as Jeter was the face of the Yankees during his playing days, Stanton is the Marlins’ franchise player, writes Olney, who argues that moving the potential 60-home run man would get the new ownership team off on the wrong foot. But if Jeter & Co. do attempt to part with Stanton, Olney lists several potential fits for the 27-year-old in his column.
- While the Rockies did offer outfielder Carlos Gonzalez a contract extension during the offseason, the reported four-year term is “not true,” according to the player. “They offered me an extension, but it was not a four-year deal,” Gonzalez told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. “I was looking for something bigger, for more years.” Without knowing the details of the offer, it’s tough to say whether Gonzalez erred to a significant degree in declining it. Regardless, it’s clear his stock has tanked thanks to an uncharacteristically poor year – one likely to be his last in Colorado, Saunders notes. Known for his bat, the 31-year-old CarGo has hit a meek .240/.308/.359 in 432 plate appearances.
- Reds rookie right-hander Luis Castillo has already earned a place in their 2018 rotation, manager Bryan Price told Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer and other reporters Saturday. “In his case, he’s not only pitched really well in our system in Double-A, but he’s continued to pitch well and get better during his time in the big leagues. For me, he’s a guy that’s in our rotation,” Price said of Castillo, who fired seven innings of three-hit, one-run, nine-strikeout ball against the Pirates on Saturday. That will go down as one of the last appearances of the year for Castillo, whom the Reds will soon shut down for the season because of an innings limit, per Buchanan. The flamethrowing 24-year-old has pitched to a 3.26 ERA and posted 9.66 K/9 against 3.61 BB/9, with a 57 percent ground-ball rate, across 77 1/3 major league frames this season.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Stanton, Marlins, J. Upton, Nats
Thanks to an improbable late-season rally, the Marlins entered Saturday a game over .500 and 4.5 games behind Colorado for the National League’s last wild-card spot. They’re not going to attempt to sell veterans such as 49-home run right fielder Giancarlo Stanton or reliever Brad Ziegler anytime soon, then, Rosenthal suggests (video links). Dealing Stanton during the season looked extremely unlikely even before the Marlins’ recent run, given his enormous contract (10 years, $295MM left after this season), the opt-out in the deal after the 2020 campaign and his full no-trade clause – not to mention the team’s impending ownership change. Nevertheless, the Marlins have been getting calls on the surging 27-year-old, according to Rosenthal, who reports that teams have been offering packages consisting of prospects, salary relief and major leaguers for Stanton. Miami has not seriously considered any offers to this stage, but if Stanton’s incredible performance keeps up, proposals from other clubs should only get more appealing, Rosenthal posits.
Ziegler, meanwhile, could have interested contenders looking for bullpen help. The 37-year-old has posted some mediocre-at-best numbers this season (4.73 ERA, 4.73 K/9, 3.15 BB/9 over 40 innings), but the ground-ball machine (66.6 percent) has worked 11 straight scoreless appearances and is under control in 2018 for a fairly reasonable $9MM. He and Stanton have each reportedly cleared trade waivers this month, freeing them up for August moves, though it looks like a moot point in both cases.
More from Rosenthal on the Marlins and two other clubs:
- Whether Tigers left fielder Justin Upton continues his torrid pace through September and whether he’s willing to stick with a rebuilding team will help determine his opt-out decision after the season, Rosenthal says. Upton, who has been one of the majors’ most valuable outfielders this season, will have a chance to walk away from the four years and $88.5MM left on his deal in hopes of landing a similar or better pact elsewhere. If he chooses to exit Detroit, facing less competition on the market than he did when he was a free agent in 2015 and not being eligible for a qualifying offer would aid him in his search for another big payday, Rosenthal notes. As a free agent a couple winters ago, Upton inked a six-year, $132.75MM pact with the Tigers despite being part of a class of available players that included other star-caliber outfielders in Jason Heyward, Yoenis Cespedes and Alex Gordon.
- On account of their unexpected success, the Marlins seem to be on the lookout for rotation help, though president of baseball operations Michael Hill told Rosenthal that the starters who have cleared waivers in August are “not inspiring at all.” Stuck with the likes of Vance Worley and Justin Nicolino in their rotation, the Marlins could promote minor league left-hander Dillon Peters, per Rosenthal. The 24-year-old Peters has posted impressive numbers across 45 2/3 Double-A innings this season, with a 1.97 ERA, 7.88 K/9 against 2.17 BB/9 and a 46 percent grounder rate, and MLB.com ranks him as the Marlins’ fourth-best prospect.
- The Nationals would like to retain contract-year manager Dusty Baker past this season, GM Mike Rizzo informed Rosenthal. The Baker-led Nats have gone 171-117 since he took over in advance of the 2016 campaign and are coasting to a second straight NL East title. Baker has said on multiple occasions that he wants to remain with the Nationals, but he’s also aiming for a pay raise.
Quick Hits: Ziegler, Young, Buehler, Dodgers
Here’s the latest from around baseball…
- “It appears” as if Marlins closer Brad Ziegler has cleared August trade waivers, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. This means that Miami would be free to deal Ziegler to any team. Ziegler is owed roughly $1.25MM remaining this season and $9MM in 2018, and prior to the trade deadline, the Marlins were reportedly willing to eat a large portion of that contract. Ziegler, however, has only allowed runs in two of his last 22 appearances and he has pitched especially well since taking over as Miami’s closer. Given that the Fish are now within striking distance of an NL wild card berth, it also isn’t clear if the team is still in selling mode.
- Also from Cafardo’s piece, Chris Young is hopeful of re-signing with the Red Sox this winter but he implies there hasn’t been much talk about an extension. “It’s been a good relationship but I’m not sure about their plans,” Young said. The veteran outfielder is in the final year of a two-year, $13MM deal with Boston signed in the 2015-16 offseason, and after a strong 2016 season, Young has actually delivered slightly below-replacement level production (-0.2. fWAR) thanks to an offensive and defensive dropoff. Young has long been known as a lefty-masher, though he has only a .614 OPS against southpaws this year (though, curiously, an .833 OPS against righties). Young turns 34 in September but will probably get consideration from the Red Sox and several other teams for a backup or platoon outfield role.
- Walker Buehler‘s last six appearances for Triple-A Oklahoma City have come as a relief pitcher, adding to the widely-held speculation that the top Dodgers prospect will make his big league debut in September to help the team’s bullpen down the stretch (and perhaps in the postseason). Manager Dave Roberts, however, tells Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times and other reporters that the team that Walker’s future has yet to be determined. “He’s transitioning to this new role. We’re very sensitive to having guys here who fit a certain role and have a purpose, and we haven’t made that decision with Walker,” Roberts said.
- From that same DiGiovanna piece, Cody Bellinger reported “no pain” in his sprained right ankle after going through workouts and batting practice. The star rookie’s injury was thought to be mild when he hit the DL on last Tuesday (with a back-dated placement to August 20), and Bellinger indeed looks on pace to return when first eligible on Wednesday. In other Dodgers injury news, Brandon McCarthy made his first rehab start on Friday as he looks to return from a month-long DL stint due to a blister problem. According to Roberts, McCarthy is still “multiple rehab starts” away from returning to the Dodgers rotation.
Minor MLB Transactions: 8/23/17
Here are some of the latest minor moves from around the game, as reported by Baseball America’s Matt Eddy, unless otherwise noted:
- The Tigers announced tonight that they’ve optioned lefty Chad Bell to Triple-A Toledo and will select the contract of right-hander Zac Reininger prior to Thursday’s contest. The 24-year-old Reininger was Detroit’s eight-round pick back in 2013 and has had a strong season across three minor league levels in 2017, rising from Class-A Advanced to Triple-A. In 63 2/3 total innings, Reininger has posted a 2.54 ERA with 8.5 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9. His ground-ball rate was a strong 53.4 percent in 28 Class-A frames but has fallen to the 39 percent range in the upper minors.
Outrighted: Vidal Nuno, Javy Guerra
Two relievers have cleared outright waivers, today, according to announcements from their respective organizations:
- Orioles lefty Vidal Nuno has been assigned to Triple-A after clearing waivers. The 30-year-old struggled badly in a dozen appearances earlier this year with the O’s, but hadn’t been in the majors since a mid-June stint. Nuno, who was acquired as camp opened this spring, has had more success this year at the highest level of the minors. Over 22 1/3 innings at Norfolk, he owns a 2.82 ERA with 10.5 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9.
- The Marlins have sent righty Javy Guerra back to Triple-A New Orleans. He was designated for assignment yesterday and cleared waivers since. Guerra, 31, has posted three MLB seasons with at least forty innings of sub-3.00 ERA ball. But the last of those came in 2014 and he has largely struggled in the upper minors ever since. Thus far in 2017, Guerra has scuffled through four MLB appearances and carries a 4.99 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9 in his 48 2/3 innings at Triple-A.
Marlins Designate Javy Guerra
The Marlins have designated righty Javy Guerra for assignment, per a club announcement. His roster spot will go to southpaw Jarlin Garcia, who was activated from the DL.
Guerra has had some success in the majors, compiling a 3.10 lifetime ERA over 162 1/3 frames. Most of those came with the Dodgers in 2011 and 2012, and he also enjoyed a productive run in 2014 with the White Sox.
That said, the 31-year-old has seen only minimal MLB action over the past three seasons. This year, Guerra appeared in 5 2/3 innings for Miami, allowing four earned runs while both walking and striking out five opposing batters. He also struggled to a 4.99 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in his 48 2/3 frames at Triple-A New Orleans.
NL East Notes: Asdrubal, Phillips, Phillies, Koehler
The latest from around the NL East…
- The Mets are receiving more trade interest in Asdrubal Cabrera, Newsday’s Marc Carig reports. Cabrera received some buzz prior to the deadline (with the Indians and Red Sox mentioned as two of the interested teams) though there haven’t been many rumblings about him yet this month. The veteran infielder has shown additional versatility by playing second and third base almost exclusively over the last two months after beginning the year as New York’s everyday shortstop. MLBTR’s Steve Adams listed Cabrera first in his recent ranking of the Top 25 August Trade Candidates.
- Brandon Phillips has acquitted himself well as the Braves‘ third baseman since moving over from second base to accommodate Ozzie Albies, and David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution points out that the position switch may be a boost to Phillips’ future career. The veteran infielder will have a better chance at finding a new contract this winter now that he has demonstrated more positional versatility, and O’Brien figures Phillips could also handle playing first base as well.
- “Essentially, the Phillies are in rebuilding purgatory,” David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News writes. The Phils find themselves in a bit of a catch-22 of needing some reliable arms to fill out next year’s rotation, as though it makes little sense to spend the significant dollars necessary for such pitching when the club is still in a rebuilding phase, though getting good pitchers at bargain prices will be difficult-to-impossible. While the Phillies aren’t planning to contend yet, Murphy argues that “the goal should be to make next season watchable,” and a lack of pitching could undermine what appears to be some promising development from the team’s young hitters.
- Tom Koehler was dealt from the Marlins to the Blue Jays yesterday, ending the right-hander’s career-long stint in the Miami organization. As Koehler tells Tim Healey of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, he is excited to go to Toronto, though it is a bittersweet feeling leaving the team that drafted him as an 18th-rounder in 2008. “They [the Marlins] gave me an opportunity. I don’t think a lot of people would have thought that I would’ve gotten as far as I have, and they gave me a chance to do it,” Koehler said.