If The Brewers Become Sellers
Having dropped seven in a row, the Brewers stand at 15-23, seven games out in the NL Central. Though more than 76% of the season remains, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs points out that Milwaukee's playoff chances already look slim. Here's a look at who might be available if Doug Melvin opens up shop a month or two from now.
The discussion begins with Prince Fielder, who is signed for $10.5MM this year and arbitration-eligible for 2011. Fielder's power went missing in April, but he seems to be back in business now. Though the Brewers could lose Fielder to free agency, there's a case to be made for keeping him until next year's trade deadline in the name of competing in 2011. If he's dealt this summer, I think the package would have to focus on players who can help next year.
The majority of the Brewers' rotation might be immovable. Randy Wolf just began a three-year, $29.75MM deal, and his numbers have slipped. Doug Davis has been lousy, though he's on a one-year, $5.25MM deal. Dave Bush's ugly peripherals don't back up his 4.27 ERA, and he's being paid $4.215MM. Jeff Suppan, now working in long relief, is the highest-paid of all.
Trevor Hoffman's $8MM salary is prohibitive, though he's shown signs of life this month outside of a mop-up appearance. Well-paid relievers LaTroy Hawkins and David Riske are on the DL.
The Brewers do have some attractive trade chips. Corey Hart is playing better, so he could be dealt assuming the Brewers don't plan to tender him a contract after the season. It might be tougher to trade Rickie Weeks, who is also arbitration-eligible one last time after 2010. Lefty Manny Parra had an excellent April, but the Brewers wouldn't have much motivation to trade him. With Davis hitting the DL, Parra rejoins the Brewers' rotation today.
Veterans such as Craig Counsell, Jody Gerut, Gregg Zaun, Claudio Vargas, and Jim Edmonds would make sense to shop, as all are free agents after the season (Zaun has a club option).
Odds & Ends: Scherzer, Lamb, LaRoche
Saturday night linkage..
- The Tigers announced tonight they've demoted Max Scherzer and Scott Sizemore to Triple A, with Armando Galarraga and Danny Worth getting the call. Both Scherzer and Edwin Jackson have disappointed since changing teams in December's big deal.
- Hank Blalock comes to Tampa Bay determined to be a more well-rounded player, according to MLB.com's Adam Berry and Bill Chastain.
- The Marlins could make a 40-man roster move soon to bring back Mike Lamb, tweets MLB.com's Joe Frisaro. Lamb was designated for assignment last week and is currently in Triple A.
- Despite Adam LaRoche's successful 2009 stint in Atlanta (.325/.401/.557 in 57 games), the Braves didn't approach him about returning, writes Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
- Alan Schwarz of the New York Times takes an in-depth look at the likely first overall pick in next month's draft, Bryce Harper.
- Nats manager Jim Riggleman says that the club will have to consider making a roster move with reliever Brian Bruney, writes Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post (via Twitter).
- Mets pitcher Oliver Perez won't accept a demotion to Triple-A if asked, tweets David Lennon of Newsday. Perez has been bumped out of the starting rotation and placed in the bullpen.
- Tyler Kepner of the New York Times writes that Eric Byrnes and Morgan Ensberg are making the most of life-after-baseball.
- Brewers pitching prospect Jeremy Jeffress will have to wait a little bit longer to return to the mound once he is reinstated, writes MLB.com's Adam McCalvy. Jeffress, the 18th overall pick in the 2006 draft, has tested positive for a "drug of abuse" on three separate occasions.
Examining Milwaukee’s Rotation
When the Brewers effectively replaced starters Manny Parra and Braden Looper with Randy Wolf and Doug Davis this offseason, the rotation seemed better-positioned to carry the team than it was last year, when Brewers pitching was largely disappointing.
Their starters posted a 5.37 ERA a year ago and their pitching staff as a whole allowed more runs than every NL club except the Nationals. GM Doug Melvin discussed trading for Kevin Correia, Jarrod Washburn, Doug Davis, Brian Bannister and others when the team was in contention last summer. The Brewers even claimed Davis, but they never made a major move.
This year the Brewers are among the worst teams in the National League in runs allowed (14th) and home runs allowed (15th). Their bullpen has been disappointing, but the starters have done better than last year, combining for a 4.70 ERA.
Yovani Gallardo has been fantastic so far, with a 3.07 ERA and 11.0 K/9. Wolf's ERA is below 4.00, but he's walking significantly more batters than he did with the Dodgers last year. Like Wolf, Dave Bush has an ERA around 4.00, but is walking far more batters than usual. Meanwhile, hitters are batting .415 on balls they put in play off of Davis. That figure should drop and drag Davis' 7.56 ERA down along with it. Rounding out the rotation, Chris Narveson pitched well against the D'Backs on Sunday, but he is no sure thing.
The Brewers have some options within the organization should their current starters falter. Carlos Villanueva has experience starting and this year he's throwing harder than ever. Villanueva, the team's pitcher of the month in April, is striking out more than a batter per inning. John Axford, ranked 23rd among Brewers prospects by Baseball America before the season, is pitching well in Triple A and could be called upon to replace Villanueva in the 'pen.
The Brewers have a solid but unremarkable rotation at this point, though they're surely hoping to see Wolf and Bush limit their free passes. We can expect Davis to improve and Villanueva could contribute, so the Brewers don't appear as desperate to acquire arms as they were a year ago. It may all be a moot point. If Milwaukee can't turn things around, they may become sellers and Jeff Suppan, Davis and Bush could be trade bait for other clubs.
Melvin: Brewers Expect To Add Minor League Depth
The Brewers will look outside the organization to replace Adam Stern at Triple A, GM Doug Melvin told MLB.com's Adam McCalvy (Twitter link). The Brewers called on Stern when they placed Carlos Gomez on the disabled list today, so they are looking to add depth in the minor leagues.
Stern, 30, hasn't played in the majors since 2007. He's off to a good start in Triple A Nashville, hitting .349/.429/.442 in 49 trips to the plate. McCalvy wonders if the Brewers could acquire Frank Catalanotto, who the Mets designated for assignment yesterday, to replace Stern at Triple A. Catalanotto was off to a poor start for the Mets, but he did hit .278/.346/.382 in 162 plate appearances for Milwaukee last year.
Gomez isn't the team's only banged up outfielder. Ryan Braun is sitting tonight's game out after being hit by a pitch from Tommy Hanson.
Odds & Ends: Lackey, Stanton, Blue Jays, Vazquez
Links for Monday, as Johnny Damon enjoys a little revenge against his former team…
- Mark Teixeira encouraged John Lackey to sign with the Yankees last winter, according to Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald.
- Marlins prospect Mike Stanton will likely remain in Double A until late May or early June, an MLB source tells MLB.com's Joe Frisaro. That will prevent the young power hitter from gaining Super Two status and an extra year of arbitration. The team would consider promoting Stanton to the majors from Double A at that point if he continues hitting well. Stanton has 15 homers already.
- The Brewers signed shortstop Justin Parker, according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy (via Twitter). The 23-year-old has a .237/.334/.344 line in 584 plate appearances in the low minors of the D'Backs organization.
- In a recent radio hit with The Big Show, Peter Gammons noted that the Red Sox tried to acquire Javier Vazquez during the offseason. Talking to Yankees GM Brian Cashman, Murray Chass learned that the Sox also had interest in Curtis Granderson.
- Kevin Gregg told Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune he was open for anything regarding a return to the Cubs, but they said no.
- Switching to the future tense, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports names ten players who could hit the trading block – including Victor Martinez, Cliff Lee, Paul Konerko, and Ted Lilly.
- Baseball America's Jim Callis ranks all draft prospects from the last 20 years, based on how they were perceived before their drafts.
Rangers Seek Catching Help
The Rangers are looking for catching help, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal notes that the Astros, Brewers, Rays and Red Sox could also use reinforcements behind the plate. The Rays appear unlikey to deal for a catcher, partly because there aren't many backstops available.
The Rangers dealt for one of the few available catchers at the end of Spring Training, acquiring Matt Treanor from the Brewers. Treanor has impressed some with his game calling and defense, but Rosenthal says the team is looking at other options. Treanor, who has a .197/.300/.262 line in 71 plate appearances, missed most of last season with a bone spur in his right hip.
It may not be easy for GM Jon Daniels to work out a trade. The Rangers' sale is unresolved and has limited the club's ability to acquire players before. MLB prevented the Rangers from offering first round pick Matt Purke as much as they had planned to last summer, so the Rangers would presumably benefit from an immediate sale of the club.
MLBTR's Howard Megdal looked at the market for Chris Iannetta a couple weeks ago and concluded that the catcher could help teams at the major league level. The 27-year-old struggled in the majors this season and has since been demoted to the minors where he has posted a .303/.378/.667 line in 37 plate appearances. Iannetta is one of the many catchers the Rangers could inquire on.
Cafardo On Fielder, Wood, DeJesus
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe would like to see the Red Sox acquire a marquee player in his prime. Let's dive in and check out the tidbits that he has for us today..
- The Red Sox will shed a great deal of payroll this offseason thanks in large part to David Ortiz and Mike Lowell coming off of the books. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes examined the team's 2011 contract issues recently, suggesting $40MM could be freed up. With that newfound breathing room, Cafardo writes that the BoSox would like to zero in on one of three elite first basemen this winter. While he anticipates Albert Pujols remaining in St. Louis, he says that Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez could be acquired via in-season trades.
- If Kerry Wood can show that he's healthy, he should be able to attract a contending team as we approach the trade deadline. Wood was recalled from his rehab assignment in Akron on Friday. The 32-year-old is set to make $10.5MM this season but if a team were to trade for him they would only have to assume the prorated portion of that.
- David DeJesus is "more than available" for teams seeking a lefty outfield bat. In return, the Royals would seek bullpen help and a positional prospect. Kansas City was said to be expecting serious interest in DeJesus this winter. The 31-year-old earns $4.5MM this season with a $6MM option for next season.
- While there's still some skepticism in Houston that Lance Berkman would really leave the organization, one Astros organizational person opined that the 34-year-old would "fit Boston like a fiddle". However, considering his advanced age and his offensive struggles this season, he's an unlikely fit for the club at present. Meanwhile, Cafardo mentions the Mariners and White Sox as teams that could really use a bat like Berkman's.
- Meanwhile, Jeremy Hermida is an outfielder that would seem to fit Seattle, though it doesn't appear that the Red Sox would entertain offers for him right now.
If The Brewers Become Sellers
The Brewers are five games under .500, 7.5 games back in the NL Central. We're not writing them off, but it's time for the "if they become sellers" treatment.
The big question is whether the Brewers would entertain offers for Prince Fielder if they're out of contention in July. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports had a good look at the situation yesterday – perhaps they'd find more suitors in the offseason, and Adrian Gonzalez's potential availability would be a complication. If Fielder does hit the market, I expect a trade return that can help the Brewers significantly in 2011. That might mean two starters they can plug directly into the rotation. A Fielder trade would probably save the Brewers decent money, which could go toward free agents.
Corey Hart would be an interesting trade candidate. He's playing at a similar level to last year, and the Brewers might not want to give him a raise on this year's $4.8MM salary.
A slew of middling Brewers veterans would probably be made available: Jeff Suppan, Trevor Hoffman, David Riske, Doug Davis, Gregg Zaun, Dave Bush, Craig Counsell, Jody Gerut, Claudio Vargas, and Jim Edmonds. The Brewers' goal would be to save as much money as possible.
Odds & Ends: Stanton, Mariners, Indians, Salome
Friday night linkage..
- John Sickels of Minor League Ball looked at interesting high school hitters in the 2010 draft. Sickels portioned out the goodness in two parts: part one and part two.
- Tom D'Angelo of the Palm Beach Post spoke to Larry Beinfest, Marlins' baseball operations president, who doesn't sound as though he's in a rush to call up Mike Stanton.
- Rather than place Jesus Colome on waivers, the Mariners optioned Shawn Kelley to Triple-A Tacoma to make room for Cliff Lee. M's manager Don Wakamatsu told Ryan Divish of The News Tribune (via Twitter) that there was "not a chance" that Colome could have cleared waivers.
- The Indians have called up righty Hector Ambriz, whom they selected from Arizona in the Rule 5 draft, writes Dennis Manoloff of The Plain Dealer. The Tribe had until May 8th, the end of his rehab assignment, to decide what to do with him.
- Brewers catching prospect Angel Salome will be given additional time off following the birth of his child, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel.
Heyman On Fielder, Pujols, Adrian
Some tidbits from Jon Heyman on the early edition of MLB Tonight on the MLB Network,..
- Heyman doesn't envision the Brewers getting a deal done with Prince Fielder. While he was complimentary towards club owner Mark Attanasio, he doesn't see Milwaukee ponying up the $25MM a year that it will likely take to hang on to him. This means that they'll have to trade him at the end of next year or let walk as a free agent.
- Meanwhile, he believes that Albert Pujols is now in line to receive a contract worth $30MM per season, perhaps up to eight years. The two sides tabled negotiations in March but will resume after the season.
- Even though the Padres are currently in first place in the NL West, Heyman believes that the club will deal Adrian Gonzalez. Heyman says it's unlikely that San Diego will allow their payroll to balloon in great excess of $50MM and therefore a re-up of Gonzalez won't fit in the budget.