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Ryan Howard Fallout

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Ryan Howard winning a $10MM salary yesterday was kind of a big deal.  Let’s examine this first-year arbitration record.

  • A source of Jayson Stark’s thinks the Phillies would’ve won had they submitted above Miguel Cabrera’s $7.4MM.  Seems that even slightly above would’ve done it, because then Howard losing would’ve still set a record.
  • Tom Haudricourt talks about how Prince Fielder is now in line for the same $10MM for his ’09 salary.  And he doesn’t see Scott Boras relenting and doing a multiyear deal.  Stark adds Ryan Braun, Ryan Zimmerman, and Hanley Ramirez as other young stars who will be affected.  Zimmerman, arbitration-eligible after ’08, will be renewed for ’07.
  • It doesn’t sound like the Phillies will sign Howard long-term, in part because there is no precedent.  There is talk of $200MM, something no one expects of the Phils.  On the plus side, Howard is theirs for the 2008-11 seasons.  They may have to keep giving him record-breaking salaries though.  A trade is a strong option before he hits free agency, but that’s a ways off.
  • Jim Salisbury thinks Howard’s win might result in another monster year.  He expects the Phils to eventually at least talk about a multiyear deal with Howard (maybe once the sting wears off).

Odds and Ends: Crisp, Stewart, Meyer

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Let’s round ’em up!

Gallardo Injury May Change Brewers’ Plans

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When the Brewers’ rotation was eight-deep, trading one starter before Opening Day seemed like a given.  MLBTR readers believed Chris Capuano to be the most likely to go.  However, young ace Yovani Gallardo tore cartilage in his knee and is set to miss four weeks.  This may stop Brewers GM Doug Melvin from making a preseason move.  The old adage holds true; you can never have too much pitching.

Gallardo, 21, pitched 110 innings with a 3.67 ERA as a rookie.  His ERA goes down to 2.84 if you take out an 11 earned run thrashing at Coors Field in August.  Fortunately it’s a knee injury rather than an elbow tweak or something.

Gallardo Injury May Change Brewers’ Plans

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When the Brewers’ rotation was eight-deep, trading one starter before Opening Day seemed like a given.  MLBTR readers believed Chris Capuano to be the most likely to go.  However, young ace Yovani Gallardo tore cartilage in his knee and is set to miss four weeks.  This may stop Brewers GM Doug Melvin from making a preseason move.  The old adage holds true; you can never have too much pitching.

Gallardo, 21, pitched 110 innings with a 3.67 ERA as a rookie.  His ERA goes down to 2.84 if you take out an 11 earned run thrashing at Coors Field in August.  Fortunately it’s a knee injury rather than an elbow tweak or something.

Brewers May Lock Up Young Players

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According to Tom Haudricourt, Brewers GM Doug Melvin is considering trying to lock up some of the team’s young players to multiyear deals.  Haudricourt suggests the targets may be Corey Hart, Prince Fielder, and Rickie Weeks – who are all arbitration eligible after the ’08 season.

As Haudricourt suggests, Melvin may not find it easy to sign Fielder.  Prince is represented by Scott Boras and should boast a very strong resume after the ’08 season.  The current Ryan Howard situation will be a comparable here.

Jeff Cirillo Leaning Towards Retirement

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According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, Jeff Cirillo will likely retire after being told that the Brewers do not have a spot on their roster for him. Cirillo stated that he would only play for Seattle (where his family resides) or Milwaukee in 2008.

Cirillo, a two-time all-star, has not been a full-time player since 2002 and enjoyed his greatest success with the Brewers and Colorado from 1998-2001 when he posted three straight seasons with an average greater than .320 and four straight years with an OPS north of .830.

By Cork Gaines

Odds and Ends: Cano, Colon, Lowry

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Here are some links I’ve rounded up this morning.

  • In theory, Robinson Cano would be open to a long-term deal. River Ave. Blues recently took a look at how historically good Cano has been so far, and suggest the Yankees lowballed him with their arbitration submission.
  • Baseball Prospectus’ Derek Jacques saw Bartolo Colon pitch in the Dominican League Finals, and lends his evaluation.  Colon was not impressive, but not terrible.  It doesn’t seem like he will get the two-year deal he wants.
  • The Brewers will bring Abraham Nunez to camp.  Versatile, but a drain on offense.
  • Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune notes that the White Sox aren’t done yet.  The Joe Crede situation should linger into spring.  Gonzales also mentions that the Giants are "listening to offers for Noah Lowry."
  • A factual look at whether Omar Minaya really stockpiles Latin American players.
  • The Astros can’t settle their gaps with Mark Loretta or Jose Valverde, and Ed Wade expects the team to go to its first arbitration hearings in over a decade.  Wade has set a deadline of this afternoon and will go to hearings otherwise.  Loretta asking for $4.9MM seems particularly off.
  • Matthew Cerrone takes an educated guess on the current Johan Santana situation.
  • Some interesting quotes from XM Radio from Michael Cuddyer and Scott Boras, separately.

Brewers Not Interested In Feliz

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The Brewers have no interest in Pedro Feliz, according to Tom Haudricourt.  Not a big surprise; why would they trade Bill Hall to sign Feliz?  Hall seems likely to stay put, though it’d be surprising if Dave Bush, Claudio Vargas, and Chris Capuano all do.

Speaking of which, let’s bust out an MLBTR survey!  Choose which of those three Brewer starters is most likely to be traded before the season begins.  You can see the results of the poll here.

Olney’s Latest: Barrett, Cameron, Santana

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Let’s take a run through Buster Olney’s blog today.

  • Olney chatted with Kevin Towers recently.  One learning: the Padres plan on keeping Michael Barrett.  Never hurts to have a little catching depth.
  • The Padres might’ve given Mike Cameron a two-year deal worth at least $17MM, more than he received from the Brewers.  Did Cameron want out of San Diego, or did his agent make a miscalculation of the market?
  • Olney talked to a talent evaluator who wondered whether the Twins might be concerned about Johan Santana’s health.  Reduced late-season velocity and less use of his slider could be signs.

Mailbag: Roberts, Teixeira, Johan, Nathan, And More

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Time for this week’s mailbag.  You can hit it up at mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com to get in your question for next week.

Do you see the Twins signing a big name middle of the order bopper or trading for one before the opening of the new stadium in 2010? – Jordan

Funny you ask this.  I recently asked LEN3 whether the Twins would have a $100MM payroll for the 2010 season, and he said, "I don’t see it."  So I’ll go with his wisdom and say business as usual for the Twins despite the stadium.

Why are the White Sox not aggressively pursuing any pitching? Do they realistically think that Gavin Floyd and John Danks can hold down the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation on a contender? I believe we need to fill the holes with some veteran pitching such as Livan Hernandez who can eat up innings and possibly add Corey Patterson at center field. – Joel

I was just discussing this with a former coworker of mine.  I can’t see the White Sox sneaking into a Wild Card berth with this rotation, but what’s the alternative?  I don’t like the Livan idea.  I would consider signing a couple of swingmen/injury risk types such as Brett Tomko or Bartolo Colon if he looks decent.  Just a few low risk/OK reward guys with good stuff who could pay off.  There’s no place for Patterson in the current Chicago outfield, I wouldn’t do that.

Were the Cubs holding off on the Brian Roberts trade until they got Lieber? – Bryant

The Cubs/Roberts thing still seems possible, and trading both Sean Marshall and Sean Gallagher is slightly easier to stomach with Lieber on board.  If I were Jim Hendry I would let the whole Roberts idea go though.

What is the likelihood of the Braves signing Mark Teixeira long-term? – Matthew

I’ll put it at a 10% chance.  This is a $100MM+ contract and he’s represented by Scott Boras.  He’ll probably want to test the open market, and there could be some ridiculous bids.

When, just when will this Santana situation be over?!  It’s just killing me! – Dan

We all feel your pain Dan.  Most folks seem sick of reading similar rehashed rumors about this.  I would be surprised if we don’t know Santana’s fate one month from now.  Of course if his fate is to start the season with the Twins, then the rumors will restart in June.

Are there any trade rumors involving Joe Nathan? – Justin

C’mon Justin, you know I’d never hold out rumors on you.  If Bill Smith is shopping Nathan around or getting inquiries, all parties are running very tight ships.  Desperation for closers seems to kick in midseason, when certain bullpens are established as clearly crappy.  So guys like Nathan and Huston Street may be more likely to be moved in June or July.

Why did the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell for Hank Blalock/John Danks deal fall through back in November of ’05? – Oliver

The Rangers believed the deal was done, and hoped to avoid any leaks before it was official.  However, a source tipped off the Palm Beach Post.  The Post and a Texas newspaper ran with it.  It was at that point the Boston front office found out, swooped in, and beat the Rangers’ offer.  Those reporters altered history.

What do you see the Milwaukee Brewers doing with their pitching surplus?  Do you see them maybe using some of their excess pitchers like Capuano and Bush to acquire a young catcher with some upside? – Tyler

We’ve seen it a million times – these winter pitching surpluses turn into deficits by May.  There is certainly a case to be made for the Brewers to just stand pat, though all those arms would be tough to squeeze in given the bullpen acquisitions.  MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy expects some of the surplus to be traded before Spring Training.  I like the catcher idea – Jeff Clement (Mariners), Bryan Anderson (Cardinals), or Taylor Teagarden/Gerald Laird (Rangers) seem like possible matches.

Do the Yankees sign Bobby Abreu after the 2008 season? – Andrew

Andrew notes that the Yanks have some money coming off the books after the ’08 season.  The right field alternatives are weak, so Abreu could make sense.  If he’d take a two or three-year extension midseason I could see Cashman doing it.

Did you ever sell your place in Lombard? – Steve

Thankfully I did.  I tried selling by owner for a month and barely got any bites.  Then I hired an agent and she sold it in three days.

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