The Opener: World Series, Mets, Brewers
Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:
1. The World Series Sees Its Second No-Hitter
After watching Lance McCullers Jr. give up five home runs while Ranger Suarez shut the lineup out in Game 3, Astros fans were no doubt feeling a bit queasy headed into a Game 4 against Aaron Nola, one of the best pitchers in the NL. Just as they did in Game 1, however, the Astros lineup managed to get to Nolan, striking for five runs in the fifth inning. However, the Astros’ offense wasn’t the story of this game — Cristian Javier struck out nine over six shutout innings to combine with Bryan Abreu, Rafael Montero, and Ryan Pressly for a no-hitter. It was the second no-hitter in World Series history (preceded by Don Larsen’s perfect game in the 1956 World Series), and just the third-ever postseason no-hitter (also at Citizens Bank Ballpark, Roy Halladay tossed a no-no in the 2010 NLDS). While there’s still plenty of baseball to be played this November, it’s worth noting that both Larsen’s Yankees and Halladay’s Phillies went on to win their respective series. For tonight’s pivotal Game 5, the Phillies will start Noah Syndergaard against Houston’s Justin Verlander.
2. The Mets Brace For Losses, Eye Additions In Free Agency
After a 101-win season that ended abruptly at the hands of the Padres in the Wild Card series, the Mets now face some significant free agent losses, and center fielder Brandon Nimmo and closer Edwin Diaz are reportedly the free agents New York wishes to retain the most. Mets owner Steve Cohen is certainly unafraid of making a splash in free agency, and the team will have to devote some more resources to rebuilding it rotation, as three starters (Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Taijuan Walker) are likely to hit free agency this offseason, and a fourth could join them if the Mets decline Carlos Carrasco‘s club option. Few players with deGrom’s level of potential impact exist in the game, much less on the free agent market, but Verlander and Carlos Rodon are both arms who could take deGrom’s place alongside Scherzer at the top of the rotation in Queens. The likes of Nathan Eovaldi, Jameson Taillon and Tyler Anderson represent possible mid-rotation replacements for Bassitt, while Walker’s quality back of the rotation production could be replaced by a variety of pitchers, including Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, or Sean Manaea.
3. Brewers Face Tough Decisions In Arbitration
In yesterday’s opener, we discussed the massive arbitration class the Rays have heading into 2023, with their 19 players being the most of any club. Milwaukee isn’t far behind with an 18-player class that is projected to receive $79.9MM, and thus the Brewers are set to approach their 2023 payroll even before making additions this offseason. While there are some non-tender candidates in the group, most of the significant money in Milwaukee’s arbitration class is tied up in productive players too valuable to just cut, so a trade of one of these more expensive names (i.e.Hunter Renfroe, Willy Adames) could make some sense. Of course, then the Brewers face the new problem of finding adequate replacements for their production for a lower price. Whatever path he may choose, GM Matt Arnold’s first offseason at the helm of the Brewers’s front office will be one to follow.
Brewers To Re-Sign Jon Singleton To Minor League Deal
The Brewers are re-signing first baseman Jon Singleton to a minor league contract, reports Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (Twitter link). The 31-year-old will be in big league Spring Training as a non-roster invitee, McCalvy adds.
It’s a second straight season in the Milwaukee organization for Singleton, who hasn’t appeared in the big leagues since 2015. A member of Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects lists every year between 2011-14, the power-hitting first baseman signed a $10MM extension with the Astros in June 2014. That came in conjunction with his first big league promotion, a precursor to pre-MLB guarantees for players like Scott Kingery, Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert. Houston’s hope was they’d found a middle-of-the-order presence for years to come, but the left-handed hitter didn’t meet the lofty expectations.
Over the next season and a half, Singleton sputtered to a .171/.290/.331 line in 114 MLB games. After playing the 2016-17 seasons in the high minors, he was released in May 2018. That came on the heels of a third career suspension following a failed test for a drug of abuse. As McCalvy chronicled in greater detail this past spring, Singleton has been open about his battle with marijuana addiction.
Singleton spent a few years out of the game but returned to professional baseball in Mexico last year. He spent the entire 2022 campaign with the Brew Crew’s top affiliate in Nashville, putting together a solid season. Through 581 plate appearances, he hit .219/.375/.434. His batting average isn’t eye-catching, but he connected on 24 home runs and drew walks in an incredible 20.1% of his trips to the dish. Even with an elevated 27.7% strikeout rate, he ranked 15th among 148 International League hitters (minimum 300 plate appearances) in on-base percentage and tied for seventh in long balls.
That wasn’t enough for Singleton to get a big league look, but it was sufficient for the Brewers to bring him back on another minor league deal. He’ll get a chance to compete for an MLB job next spring. Milwaukee can retain both of their 2022 first basemen, Rowdy Tellez and Keston Hiura. Like Singleton, Tellez is a left-handed hitter whose profile is carried by his power and plate discipline. He’s clearly above Singleton on the depth chart, although he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $5.3MM salary in his second year of arbitration eligibility. That’s not an insignificant sum for a Brewers team with a huge arbitration class, and as MLBTR’s Maury Ahram explored earlier this month, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Milwaukee fields trade offers on Tellez this offseason.
Brewers Outright Pablo Reyes To Triple-A, Re-Sign Andruw Monasterio
The Brewers have outrighted utilityman Pablo Reyes to Triple-A, according to Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Twitter link). Milwaukee also re-signed infielder Andruw Monasterio to a minor league contract that contains an invitation to the Major League Spring Training camp.
Since Reyes was previously outrighted (as a member of the Pirates organization in 2020), he has the right to reject the Brewers’ assignment and become a free agent. If he opts to remain, Reyes would be heading into his season in Milwaukee, after first signing a minors contract with the Brew Crew in the 2020-21 offseason. He appeared in 53 big league games with Milwaukee in 2021, but made only five MLB appearances in 2022.
Reyes has mostly been used as a bench player and late game defensive fill-in, owing to his versatility — he has played every position except first base and catcher over his 147 career Major League games with the Pirates and Brewers. Reyes has a .238/.307/.361 slash line over 323 plate appearances, as a nice initial burst at the plate during his 63-PA rookie season has failed to continue beyond the 2018 campaign.
The 25-year-old Monasterio has hit .264/.344/.355 over 2582 career PA in the minors, breaking in as a 17-year-old with the Cubs in 2014. 2022 was his first season in Milwaukee’s farm system, and he hit .271/.364/.406 over 437 combined PA at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. The infielder has been involved in two prominent trades during his career, going from the Cubs to the Nationals as part of the Daniel Murphy swap in August 2018, and then going from Washington to Cleveland a few months later as part of the Yan Gomes trade package.
Steve Cohen Says Mets Aren’t Pursuing David Stearns
David Stearns has long been considered a Mets target, as the Brewers twice rejected requests from Mets owner Steve Cohen to speak with Stearns about New York’s front office vacancies in the last two years. When Stearns stepped down yesterday as Milwaukee’s president of baseball operations, speculation quickly arose about Sterns’ future and whether or not a move to New York could be in the offing, though Cohen has seemingly closed the door on the possibility.
Speaking with SNY’s Andy Martino, Cohen reiterated that general manager Billy Eppler “is in charge” of the Mets front office, and that the club is “focused on other things right now” than a pursuit of Stearns.
Cohen’s statement tracks with other recent reports suggesting that Eppler isn’t in danger of being replaced, as the positives of the Mets’ 101-win regular season look to have outweighed the disappointment of the club’s early playoff exit in the Wild Card Series. The Mets are still looking for a new team president, but were reportedly looking to hire a business-oriented executive for the role, leaving Eppler running baseball operations.
Of course, speculation linking Stearns and the Mets isn’t likely to end until Stearns takes a job with another team, the Mets hire a new president, or perhaps until Eppler is given a president of baseball operations title. (While clubs can use several different titles for their top front office decision-maker, Eppler’s status as “only” a GM does leave some wiggle room for a president of baseball ops to be installed above him.) In fact, Martino feels Cohen will eventually interview Stearns down the road, though Martino also writes that “Mets people have long insisted that the link between Cohen and Stearns has been overstated for the past year.”
For his part, Stearns said that he isn’t joining another team, and that his decision to step away from Milwaukee’s PBO job was based on a desire to step back from the daily grind of running a Major League team. Though he’ll remain as a consultant with the Brewers, Stearns said he is “looking forward to taking a deep breath, spending time with my family and exploring some other interests.”
There is also the practical matter of Stearns’ contract, which runs through the end of the 2023 season. Stearns and Brewers owner Mark Attanasio discussed the situation (with MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and other reporters) in somewhat oblique terms at yesterday’s news conference, saying that there was some type of arrangement in place should another team ask to interview Stearns about another job.
Because Stearns is a contracted employee, Attanasio is under no official obligation to allow the Mets or any team to speak with Stearns. As an MLB official tells The Athletic’s Will Sammon, the league would have to approve any attempt on another’s team part to essentially purchase Stearns’ contract for cash. Perhaps not wanting to set precedent, “MLB would likely prefer the two sides strike a trade involving players,” Sammon writes. Trades involving non-player personnel are rare but not entirely uncommon. For instance, the Red Sox received two players (Chris Carpenter and Aaron Kurcz) from the Cubs as compensation for letting Theo Epstein out of the the final year of his contract to become Chicago’s new president of baseball operations, with prospect Jair Bogaerts also dealt from the Cubs to the Sox as part of the swap.
Brewers Outright Miguel Sánchez
The Brewers have outrighted right-hander Miguel Sánchez, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com.
Sánchez, 28, was first selected to Milwaukee’s 40-man roster in June of 2021 and has served as an up-and-down depth arm since then. Across 2021 and 2022, he threw 39 1/3 MLB innings with a 4.12 ERA. His 18% strikeout rate and 12.4% walk rate were both a few ticks worse than average, though he did get grounders at a decent 45.8% clip.
Sanchez went on the injured list in late June due to “UCL discomfort.” Brewers manager Craig Counsell said that “nothing major” was found by an MRI and he was sent on a rehab assignment in July. However, he made just two appearances on that assignment and didn’t pitch over the final few months of the season. He was placed on the 60-day IL August 1.
At this time of year, many clubs are facing roster crunches. There’s no IL between the World Series and Spring Training, meaning that players on the 60-day IL will have to retake roster spots. All teams will also have to decide which prospects to add to their 40-man rosters ahead of the Rule 5 draft, further adding to the squeeze.
Sánchez has been in the minors for at least part of seven seasons now, which gives him the right to refuse this outright assignment and elect free agency. It’s unclear at this point if he has chosen to do so.
David Stearns Steps Down As Brewers’ President Of Baseball Operations
10:08am: At a press conference announcing his decision, Stearns stated that he’s “not going anywhere” and will remain in Milwaukee. That, of course, doesn’t rule out pursuing opportunities in the future, but it’s a rather firm declaration that for the time being, he has no plans to join another organization. Rather, Stearns added that he’s “looking forward to taking a deep breath, spending time with my family and exploring some other interests.”
8:35am: David Stearns is stepping down as the Brewers’ president of baseball operations but will remain with the club in an advisory capacity, the team announced. General manager Matt Arnold will now oversee the baseball operations department.
It’s a surprise shakeup atop the Brewers’ baseball operations department, as Stearns has built a reputation as one of the most widely respected baseball execs in the game since taking over the reins in Milwaukee. He’d been under contract through the 2023 season.
“This is not an easy decision for me and is something I have been wrestling with for a long time,” Stearns said in a prepared statement. “[Owner] Mark Attanasio and I have had an open dialogue and we both knew this day could eventually come. It has been a priority for both of us that any transition would take place while the organization is in a healthy position with solid leadership and a talented roster going forward. That is certainly the case today.”
“I’m very grateful to Mark and all of our staff for their support and efforts throughout my tenure with the Brewers,” Stearns continued. Matt [Arnold] and I both arrived in 2015 and he is more than ready for this next opportunity. I am committed to serving as a resource to Matt as he sees fit as the organization moves through this transition.”
Of course, the announcement will prompt immediate speculation about whether Stearns might ultimately be headed elsewhere. The team noted that he’ll serve ownership and the baseball ops department as an advisor, and Stearns himself suggests within those comments that he’ll remain with the organization for the time being to help guide Arnold and others through the transition. Nonetheless, his departure from such a prominent role could pave the way for his eventual departure altogether.
For instance, the Mets have pursued Stearns, a New York native, for their vacant president of baseball operations post in each of the past two offseasons but been denied permission to interview him. Mets owner Steve Cohen eventually landed on Billy Eppler to lead his baseball operations staff, but Eppler was given the “general manager” title, leaving the door open for a president to be appointed atop the hierarchy.
That said, Stearns could well be of appeal to a broad number of teams seeking a veteran baseball operations leader over the course of the next year. The Harvard grad has been running baseball operations for the Brewers since 2015 and, prior to that, was an assistant GM in Houston, a director of baseball operations in Cleveland (a role he shared with current Twins president of baseball ops Derek Falvey).
As for Arnold, he’ll receive autonomy over a baseball operations department for the first time in his career. Hired away from the Rays in 2015 to serve as an assistant GM under Stearns, Arnold was promoted to the title of general manager in 2020. Arnold, like Stearns, had been drawing interest from other teams in their front office search, and the bump to the GM’s chair made it more difficult for other teams to pursue him (as clubs are generally only permitted to interview other teams’ executives if they’re offering a promotion).
Despite holding the GM title for the past two years, the 43-year-old Arnold has been second on the team’s operations hierarchy until today’s announcement. He’s spent more than 20 years working in baseball ops, however, serving as Tampa Bay’s director of player personnel in addition to holding a variety of roles in scouting, player development and player analysis for the Dodgers, Reds and Rangers over his career.
That Arnold is the one now assuming oversight of the department leaves the Brewers with some more continuity than the standard changing of the guard, but the change in leadership is nevertheless a seismic shift for the Brewers. Attanasio called Stearns’ impact on the club “transformational” in his own statement today, adding that he’s “disappointed” in the decision but also “grateful” to Stearns for the past seven years.
It’s easy to see why. Prior to hiring Stearns in 2015, the Brewers had won only two division titles dating back to 1969 and had reached the postseason on just four occasions. Milwaukee won the NL Central in both 2018 and 2021 under Stearns’ leadership and reached the playoffs in four consecutive seasons, from 2018-21.
Along the way, Stearns, Arnold and their staff built out a powerhouse rotation headlined by draftees Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes, as well as trade acquisitions such as Freddy Peralta, Eric Lauer and Adrian Houser. (Woodruff was drafted by the prior regime in 2014 but, as an 11th-round pick, is still a player development triumph for the organization as a whole.)
A look up and down the Brewers’ roster reveals one of the most trade-dependent clubs in the Majors. In addition to Peralta, Lauer and Houser, Stearns oversaw trades that brought Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, Hunter Renfroe and Luis Urias into the organization. His most infamous swaps include the lopsided Christian Yelich acquisition from the Marlins and the trade that sent Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers to Houston in return for Houser, outfielder Brett Phillips and Josh Hader.
Stearns has drawn his share of flak for trading Hader to the Padres at this summer’s deadline despite the fact that his team was in contention for what would be a third NL Central title under his watch. The now-former Brewers president has since acknowledged that the move had a larger impact on the clubhouse than he anticipated. However, threading the needle by acquiring controllable talent in exchange for players with dwindling club control (at or near peak value) is a reality for most small- and mid-market front offices. (Hader will be a free agent next winter and has a projected $13.6MM salary in arbitration.)
In general, though, it’s fair to say that Stearns’ willingness to act boldly on the trade market has benefited the Brewers more often than it’s harmed them. Now, those decisions will ultimately fall to Arnold. It’s impossible to say for certain whether he’ll have the same affinity for aggressively attacking the trade market, but given Arnold’s roots in an ever-active Rays organization, seven years working alongside Stearns and a massive arbitration class, the Brewers are likely in for another active offseason.
Offseason Chat Transcript: Milwaukee Brewers
MLBTR is holding live chats specific to each of the 30 teams as the offseason nears. In conjunction with the Offseason Outlook for the Brewers, Darragh McDonald held a Brewers-specific chat. Click here to read the transcript.
Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have often been competitive without being big spenders. They fell off of that fine line in 2022, trading away their closer and stumbling out of the postseason picture down the stretch. Unless there’s a payroll boost coming, some more tough financial decisions might be over the horizon.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Christian Yelich, OF: $162.5MM through 2028 (including $6.5MM buyout of 2029 mutual option)
- Aaron Ashby, LHP: $18.5MM through 2027 (including $1MM buyout of 2028 club option)
- Freddy Peralta, RHP: $10.5MM through 2024 (including $1.5MM buyout of 2025 club option)
Total 2023 commitments: $30.5MM
Total future commitments: $191.5MM
Option Decisions
- Kolten Wong, 2B: $10MM club option with $2MM buyout
- Brad Boxberger, RHP: $3MM club option, $750K buyout
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Hunter Renfroe (5.165): $11.2MM
- Brent Suter (5.161): $3.1MM
- Victor Caratini (5.051): $2.8MM
- Luis Perdomo (5.034): $1MM
- Brandon Woodruff (4.161): $11MM
- Matt Bush (4.132): $2MM
- Willy Adames (4.105): $9.2MM
- Trevor Gott (4.057): $1.4MM
- Corbin Burnes (4.049): $11.4MM
- Eric Lauer (4.033): $5.2MM
- Jandel Gustave (4.027): $900K
- Adrian Houser (4.010): $3.6MM
- Rowdy Tellez (4.004): $5.3MM
- Luis Urías (3.120): $4.3MM
- Hoby Milner (3.068): $1.1MM
- Devin Williams (3.056): $3.2MM
- Mike Brosseau (3.031): $1.2MM
- Keston Hiura (3.009): $2MM
- Non-tender candidates: Renfroe, Suter, Perdomo, Bush, Gott, Gustave,
Free Agents
- Andrew McCutchen, Omar Narváez, Jace Peterson, Taylor Rogers, Jonathan Davis, Pedro Severino, Josh Lindblom, Trevor Rosenthal
For much of 2022, it seemed that the Brewers were cruising to a fifth straight postseason appearance. As July was winding down and the trade deadline was drawing near, they were sitting atop the NL Central, four games clear of the Cardinals. A team in that position would normally lean into the “buyer” category, but Milwaukee tried to have it both ways. They traded their star closer Josh Hader, and his increasingly-expensive salary, to the Padres. They added some young players to their farm system and surely hoped that the bullpen would be fine without him, with the plan being that Devin Williams would step into the closer’s role, supported by deadline acquisitions Taylor Rogers, Matt Bush and Trevor Rosenthal.
Unfortunately, rumors quickly began swirling that the move had a deleterious effect on the morale in the clubhouse. While that can’t be definitively quantified, what is certainly true is that the move didn’t pan out on the field. Rogers and Bush both struggled after the move while an injury kept Rosenthal from ever joining the club. The Brewers went 29-31 from the start of August until the end of the schedule, yielding the Central to the Cardinals and finishing one game behind the Phillies for the final NL Wild Card spot.
President of baseball operations David Stearns is under contract for 2023, though there was reportedly some type of opt-out in his contract that could have allowed him to pursue other opportunities. It was unclear if the Brewers had to reach the NLCS or the World Series to put him in position to trigger that opt-out, although it’s now a moot point since the club missed the playoffs entirely. Stearns is a New York native and has been frequently mentioned in rumors connecting him to the Mets, but the Brewers have denied him the opportunity to explore jobs with other organizations. It seems that he will be staying in Milwaukee for at least one more season.
It doesn’t seem like it will be an easy offseason for him to navigate, as the Hader trade didn’t solve the payroll situation for the Brewers. Never huge spenders, the club ran out an Opening Day payroll of $132MM this year, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That represented a franchise record but was still in the bottom half of the league, coming in 19th out of the 30 MLB teams. For 2023, Roster Resource estimates they’re already pretty close to that number, currently pegged at $118MM. They have a huge 18-player arbitration class and could improve their financial situation with a few non-tenders, though that would also create more holes on a roster that already proved insufficient. Next year, the more balanced schedule means they will have fewer games within their weak division, which will only increase the challenge of competing in 2023. Unless another bump is coming for the budget, it’s possible Stearns will have to continue walking fine lines.
The starting rotation is currently in a strong position, as the club has six starters with varying levels of strength. Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are clearly at the front end, with both showing ace potential at times. Freddy Peralta has some durability concerns but has shown himself capable of being almost as good as Burnes and Woodruff when healthy. That’s an extremely good front three, and it’s bolstered by Eric Lauer, Aaron Ashby and Adrian Houser as serviceable back-end guys. However, all six of them are in line for raises in 2023. Peralta’s extension will lead to his salary going from $2.25MM up to $3.5MM next year, while Ashby’s will go from $700K to $1MM as part of his own extension. The other four starters will all be eligible for raises via arbitration. Back in September, Burnes discussed his status with Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, very much aware of the fact he’s a candidate to follow the same path as Hader. It might be difficult for the Brewers to consider trading another star hurler after the Hader deal went so poorly, but taking that off the table will likely lead to difficult decisions elsewhere.
The bullpen is probably the least-impressive it’s been in some time, now that Hader is no longer atop the chart. However, Devin Williams still gives them an excellent starting point. He’s now thrown 155 1/3 innings in the big leagues with a 2.03 ERA, 48.8% ground ball rate and 39.5% strikeout rate. His 11.5% walk rate is certainly on the high side, though he’s still been very effective. He racked up 26 holds and 15 saves in 2022 and seems ticketed for permanent closer duties going forward. He’ll qualify for arbitration for the first time this winter but should still be well worth the salary bump.
The rest of the bullpen is a bit more murky. Rosenthal and Rogers are free agents. Matt Bush struggled after the trade but still finished the season with a 3.47 ERA on the season as a whole. He’ll be due a raise via arbitration but not a huge one. Brad Boxberger had another strong season for Milwaukee and can be retained via a $3MM club option. That might seem to be a fairly easy trigger at first glance, but his strikeout rate took a downturn this year and he’s turning 35 in May. Is the payroll tight enough for the Brewers to simply walk away and dedicate those resources elsewhere? Peter Strzelecki had a nice debut and hasn’t yet reached arbitration. However, pitchers like Trevor Gott, Luis Perdomo, Jandel Gustave and Brent Suter are all part of that huge arbitration class and none of them were outstanding in 2022. A few non-tenders would save the club a few bucks but would also weaken the overall depth. Either way, they will probably look to find some low-cost additions, either through free agency or waiver claims.
Behind the plate, the Brewers are facing the departure of Omar Narváez. His bat took a step back in 2022 but he still provided value with his glove. Without him, the primary catcher is Victor Caratini, who was having a strong season but finished quite poorly. Through the end of July, he was hitting .231/.355/.413 for a wRC+ of 121, but then slashed just .163/.234/.264 the rest of the way for a wRC+ of 39. Adding another backstop would make some sense, but they could also start the year with Alex Jackson and Mario Feliciano battling Caratini for playing time if the budget is tight.
Rowdy Tellez should have first base spoken for after a solid season at the plate. He hit 35 home runs and produced a batting line of .219/.306/.461 for a wRC+ of 110. However, it’s possible the club will consider trading Tellez and giving first base to Keston Hiura, a possibility recently explored by MLBTR’s Maury Ahram. Hiura struck out in 41.7% of his plate appearances but still hit 14 home runs in 80 games and produced a 115 wRC+. He can play other positions at times but doesn’t get great marks for his work at second base or in left field. A trade could clear up some money but it also wouldn’t break the bank to keep Tellez and Hiura in some sort of platoon rotation.
Up the middle, Willy Adames has shortstop locked down but second base is a little less clear. The club has a $10MM club option over Kolten Wong’s services for 2023, which comes with a $2MM buyout. That net $8MM decision would normally be a very clear decision, with exercising it the obvious choice. However, given the potential payroll constraints and Wong’s unusually weak defensive year, it’s possible that the Brewers look to move on. Wong himself seemed to acknowledge all of this recently, realizing that it’s possible that he is replaced by prospect Brice Turang, who had a nice year in Triple-A. There’s also a couple of utility guys present, with Luis Urías and Mike Brosseau on the roster. They’re both coming off solid seasons, though at least one of them will likely need to cover third base due to the free agency of Jace Peterson. Though Peterson has never been an above-average hitter by measure of wRC+, except in the shortened 2020 campaign, he got excellent marks for his work at the hot corner this year while also occasionally moving to first base, second base and the outfield corners.
In the outfield, Christian Yelich will continue manning one spot. He’s not quite living up to his salary, as he’s getting paid to be the MVP-level player he was in 2018 and 2019. He’s fallen short of that in each of the past three seasons but has still been a solid above-average regular. Hunter Renfroe could be in another corner, though he also could be a non-tender candidate based on his one-dimensional output. He hit 29 home runs in 2022 but was below-average at drawing walks and isn’t especially strong on defense. He’s certainly still a valuable player, but with a projected salary of $11.2MM, the Brewers could look to trade him and find a comparable player for less money on the free agent market.
In center field, 2023 will be the first full season of the post-Lorenzo Cain era. Jackson Chourio is considered by many to be one of the best prospects in the sport and the center fielder of the future in Milwaukee. However, he’s not yet reached his 19th birthday and will surely need some more time. Rookie Garrett Mitchell got some big league playing time down the stretch and fared well, though in a small sample of just 28 games. Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer each finished strong in Triple-A and could be ready for a jump to the majors quite soon. Esteury Ruiz, acquired from the Padres in the Hader deal, has already gotten a taste of the majors. However, the Brewers played him in left field more than center after trading for him.
The Brewers have some interesting decisions ahead of them this winter, as they look to bounce back from a disappointing 2022 campaign. They have some question marks in the outfield, especially if they let Renfroe go. They have some holes on the infield, especially if they don’t retain Wong. The bullpen certainly has room for some upgrades, as does their catching corps. To address those areas, there might not be a ton of money to work with, meaning it could be one more year on the tightrope.
In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Brewers-centric chat on 10-26-22. Click here to read the transcript.
Trade Candidate: Rowdy Tellez
When the Blue Jays traded Rowdy Tellez to the Brewers in June 2021, the move was mostly seen as a depth addition to stabilize first base after slugger Daniel Vogelbach went down with a hamstring injury. Now, over a year since that trade was completed, Tellez has blossomed into a righty-masher, posting a .222/.303/.498 (117 wRC+) slash line against right-handed pitchers in 2022, with a collective .219/.307/.462 line and 35 homers against all competition.
On the heels of such a productive season, Tellez will garner some trade interest. Predicted to earn only $5.3MM in his second trip through the arbitration process, Tellez projects as an affordable option in a thin first base market (recently analyzed by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco). Besides José Abreu, Josh Bell, potentially Anthony Rizzo if he executes his opt-out, and a few veterans coming off down years, there are few first basemen available that provide power similar to Tellez.
As for the Brewers, while they do not currently have any top prospects at first base, ranked by MLB.com, former Brewers’ top prospect Keston Hiura does not have a clear starting spot. Willy Adames and Luis Urías are penciled in as the starting shortstop and third baseman, respectively, and Kolten Wong is patrolling Hiura’s natural position, second base, with prospect Brice Turang waiting in the wings if the Brewers decline Wong’s club option this offseason. With a crowded infield, the Brewers may be forced with the tough call of starting Hiura, who hit .226/.316/.449 in 80 games last season, and trading Tellez, or potentially moving on from Hiura due to the logjam.
If the Brewers decide to trade Tellez, some teams that might be interested in the slugger include the Houston Astros and the San Francisco Giants.
The Astros relied on Yuli Gurriel to hold down first base during the 2022 season, but the 38-year-old, who will turn 39 during the 2023 season, showed signs of decline, hitting a meager .242/.288/.360 in 146 games. It’s a far cry from the strong .319/.383/.462 line the righty posted in the 2021 season, and more akin to his weaker, pandemic-shortened 2020 showing in which he hit .232/.274/.384 in 57 games. Internally, the Astros have Yainer Díaz and Joe Perez as potential heirs to Gurriel. Both players made their MLB debut in 2022, but neither progressed through the minor league system as first basemen. Díaz, who hit .294/.343/.587 in Triple-A Sugar Land this past season split time at catcher and first, after beginning his minor league career as a catcher. Perez spent time at the other corner infield position, third base, but is blocked by All-Star Alex Bregman. Perez spent the majority of the 2022 season at Doble-A Corpus Christi where he slashed .265/.355/.397 in 64 games.
The Giants primarily used a combination of Brandon Belt and Wilmer Flores at first base this past season. The lefty Belt hit an underwhelming .213/.326/.350 and underwent season-ending surgery on his right knee while the righty Flores hit a slightly stronger .229/.316/.394. With Belt a free agent, the Giants could trade for Tellez to platoon with utility man Wilmer Flores. However, the Giants may opt to bring back Belt in hopes of a rebound season after he slashed an impressive .274/.378/.597 during the 2021 season.
Brewers Notes: Stearns, Wong, Turang
The Brewers entered the 2022 season with high expectations on the heels of a 95-win campaign, but Milwaukee came up a bit short of a playoff berth. The Brew Crew finished 86-76 and were eliminated two days before the final game of the regular season.
President of baseball operations David Stearns met with reporters yesterday to discuss the team’s finish (link via Curt Hogg and Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). He unsurprisingly expressed disappointment with missing the postseason, for which he took no small share of the blame. Asked about the team’s trade deadline approach — specifically the decision to deal All-Star reliever Josh Hader to the Padres for Taylor Rogers, Dinelson Lamet (who was almost immediately waived) and prospects Esteury Ruiz and Robert Gasser — Stearns acknowledged he didn’t fully appreciate how much of an impact the trade would have in the clubhouse and on the field.
“The Hader trade clearly had an impact on the team,” Stearns said. “It had a more pronounced impact than I thought it would at the time, and the surrounding moves didn’t adequately fortify the team in Josh’s absence.” He stopped short of saying he regretted the move, pointing to the long-term window of club control the team has over Ruiz and Gasser. He nevertheless noted that not making the postseason despite having a lead in the division as late as August 5 leads to “(looking) back and (saying) what more could we have done, what different could we have done.”
Hader himself wasn’t lights-out for San Diego. Through 16 innings as a Padre, the hard-throwing southpaw allowed 14 runs with a 28.2% strikeout rate that is far below his career norm. Yet a key justification for the Milwaukee front office in pulling the trigger on the deal was the assumption Rogers would step in as a productive relief arm himself. Instead, he posted a 5.48 ERA in 23 innings down the stretch, struggling mightily with the home run ball. Home runs were also an issue for Matt Bush, whom the Brewers added in a separate trade with the Rangers and who pitched to a 4.30 mark in 23 frames. Milwaukee’s acquisition of Trevor Rosenthal from the Giants, meanwhile, fell flat when he suffered a lat injury while trying to rehab from a hamstring strain that had him on the injured list at the time of the swap. Overall, the Milwaukee bullpen blew an MLB-worst 16 leads from deadline day forward.
That certainly wasn’t all foreseeable for the front office, but there’s no question the Brewers tried to thread a needle between remaining competitive while adding longer-term talent to the organization. That’s partially because of the franchise’s payroll outlook. Milwaukee has a massive arbitration class this winter, with 18 players eligible for that process. They won’t all be tendered contracts, but stars like Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Willy Adames are all projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for salaries north of $9MM during their penultimate years of club control. Hader, who’s headed into his final year of control, is projected for a $13.6MM salary.
Finances are always a consideration for a Milwaukee franchise that annually runs payrolls slightly below the league average. The hefty arbitration class could be a factor in the team’s decision whether to exercise a club option on second baseman Kolten Wong. Milwaukee holds a $10MM option or a $2MM buyout, leaving them with a net $8MM call as to whether to keep him for a third season. That’s a perfectly reasonable price in a vacuum, as Wong is coming off a .251/.339/.430 showing with 15 home runs across 497 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+, that production was 16 points above that of this year’s league average hitter, the best hitting season of Wong’s career.
Nevertheless, the Brewers have to weigh those strong offensive marks against a bizarrely poor defensive season. Wong is a two-time Gold Glove winner and typically a plus defender, but Statcast pegged him as seven runs below average this year. Defensive Runs Saved estimated him as just one run below par, but all public metrics agreed it was the worst defensive season of his career. Wong himself shared that sentiment, telling Hogg (separate Journal-Sentinel post) “defensively, it just wasn’t even my year” and vowing to work over the offseason to better his glovework. While that’s certainly an encouraging attitude, it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll be able to recapture his peak defensive form at age 32.
Wong also addressed his contract status. While he told Hogg he’d be happy to see his option picked up, he acknowledged Milwaukee’s hefty arbitration class and the presence of former first-round pick Brice Turang in the upper minors. Turang, 23 in November, spent all of last season at Triple-A Nashville. He hit .286/.360/.412 with 13 homers and 34 stolen bases through 603 plate appearances. Regarded as a quality defensive middle infielder, the lefty-swinging Turang will be added to the 40-man roster this offseason and could be a cheaper second base option if the Brewers decided to part with Wong.
While Wong indicated he’s not yet heard from the team one way or the other, he suggested he’d be content to explore his free agent options if it comes to that. “I’ve been a free agent one time already and it’s not the most enjoyable thing,” he told Hogg. “If I got to go through it again, it is what it is. It will be interesting to see where I’d end up landing. Milwaukee was a choice that I kind of had in mind going into free agency as a high pick for me. This next one, I just kind of want to keep an open mind and see how it goes.”
If Wong were sent back into free agency, he’d be arguably the top player in the second base class. Jean Segura, who’s likely to be bought out by the Phillies, and utilityman Brandon Drury are otherwise the best players who’ll be available.