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Robbie Ray, Corbin Burnes Win Cy Young Awards

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The Baseball Writers Association of America revealed the results of Cy Young award balloting this evening. Robbie Ray of the Blue Jays (now a free agent) and Corbin Burnes of the Brewers were named the American League and National League winners, respectively.

Ray claimed the AL award in resounding fashion, an achievement made all the more remarkable by his 2020 struggles. The southpaw dealt with significant control problems during the shortened campaign, leading the D-Backs to trade him to Toronto for essentially no return. After the end of the year, the Jays jumped the market to bring Ray back, buying low on the talented hurler with a one-year, $8MM pact.

That move will go down as one of the best of general manager Ross Atkins’ tenure in Toronto. Not only did Ray get back to heights that saw him make an All-Star team and garner some Cy Young support in 2017, he posted the best showing of his eight-year career. Ray worked 193 1/3 innings of 2.84 ERA ball, striking out an elite 32.1% of batters faced. That swing-and-miss stuff was nothing new, but the 29-year-old also cut his walk rate by almost two thirds. Just one year after walking 17.9% of opponents, Ray doled out free passes at just a 6.9% clip in 2021.

64 American League pitchers tallied 100+ innings this past season. Among that group, Ray ranked 3rd in ERA, strikeout percentage, strikeout/walk rate differential (25.2 percentage points) and SIERA (3.22). He led all AL hurlers in both innings pitched and swinging strike rate (15.5%). That stellar showing earns Ray his first Cy Young award and positions him as one of the top pitchers on this offseason’s free agent market.

As mentioned, the voting tilted quite strongly in Ray’s favor. He appeared on all 30 ballots, receiving 29 first-place votes and one second-place tally. The Yankees’ Gerrit Cole (who received the lone first-place nod that didn’t go to Ray) was the clear second-place finisher, with Lance Lynn of the White Sox coming in third. Nathan Eovaldi, Carlos Rodón, Frankie Montas, Lance McCullers Jr., Liam Hendriks, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito and Raisel Iglesias also received down ballot support.

Voting in the National League was far more contentious, with very little separation between Burnes and the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler at the top. Both players received twelve first-place votes and appeared on all 30 ballots in some capacity, but Burnes’ 14-9 edge in second-place finishes wound up making the difference. The other six first-place votes went to eventual third-place finisher Max Scherzer, who split the season between the Nationals and Dodgers.

To some extent, the battle between Burnes and Wheeler came down to weighing volume versus rate effectiveness. Wheeler tossed an MLB-best 213 1/3 innings, while Burnes worked 167 frames. That’s a rather significant nod in Wheeler’s favor, but Burnes’ per-inning accomplishments were incredible. The Milwaukee righty ranked second among the 62 NL hurlers with 100+ innings in ERA (2.43) while pacing the league in SIERA (2.61), strikeout percentage (35.6%), strikeout/walk rate differential (30.4 percentage points) and swinging strike rate (16.6%).

That’s not to imply Wheeler was ineffective. The Phils’ righty was among the top ten in the league in most rate categories as well. But voters ultimately gave an ever so slight edge to Burnes’ utter domination of opponents, even if that came with a lighter workload than the one Wheeler shouldered.

Like Ray, Burnes takes home his first Cy Young award. He’d finished sixth in last year’s balloting and now looks like one of the game’s top handful of hurlers moving forward. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Brewers, who control Burnes via arbitration through the end of 2024, try to open extension talks with his representatives at CAA Sports over this offseason.

In addition to the three finalists, Walker Buehler, Brandon Woodruff, Kevin Gausman, Adam Wainwright, Julio Urías and Jacob deGrom picked up some down ballot support. Buehler was the only non-finalist to garner any second-place votes, with two runner-up nods.

See full balloting results.

Images courtesy of USA TODAY Sports.

Brewers Open To Offers, But Stearns Wary Of Trading Pitching

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  • Speaking of adding offense in the NL Central, Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns acknowledged his team’s need to score more runs in 2022, but he told MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and Jordan Bastian that “I think we’re likely to remain a run prevention-first team next year, where we’re built around our pitching and defense.  I don’t see that changing.”  With this in mind, Stearns said that while he’ll naturally listen to what other teams have to offer, “it’s really tough to trade pitching,” even though the Brew Crew have one of the sport’s deeper mix of rotation arms.  Since the time of this interview, Stearns did swing one pitching-for-hitting trade, though Milwaukee sent only a single-A relief prospect (Evan Reifert) to the Rays for utility infielder Mike Brosseau.

Brewers Acquire Mike Brosseau From Rays

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The Brewers have acquired utilityman Mike Brosseau from the Rays in exchange for minor league right-hander Evan Reifert.  Both teams have officially announced the trade.

One of many multi-positional players coming through the Rays’ pipeline, Brosseau was an undrafted free agent who rose through Tampa’s ranks to appear in 143 games over the last three seasons.  Brosseau hit .284/.343/.500 with 11 homers over 240 plate appearances in 2019-20, and looked to be on the verge of becoming a regular in the Rays’ infield mix before struggling in 2021.

Brosseau never seemed to get on track in the early going, and then found himself frequently shuttled back and forth between Tampa Bay and Triple-A Durham.  An oblique strain in July further hampered his season, and overall, Brosseau hit only .187/.266/.347 over 169 PA for the Rays.  This apparently made Brosseau an expendable piece for a Rays team deep in infield depth, and as broadcaster Neil Solondz notes, the Rays now also open up a roster spot in advance of the 40-man roster deadline on November 19.

The Brewers have a pattern of seeking out versatile players, and Brosseau has plenty of experience at multiple positions.  He has mostly played second base and third base throughout his pro career, but also has seen a decent chunk of action as a shortstop, first baseman, and corner outfielder.  A right-handed hitter, Brosseau can serve as a complement to lefty swingers Kolten Wong at second base or Rowdy Tellez at first base.  With Brosseau now in the fold, it could increase the chances that Milwaukee parts ways with at least one of Daniel Vogelbach or Jace Peterson prior to November 19, or the December 2 non-tender deadline.

Reifert is also technically an undrafted player, as though he was a 30th-round pick for the Rangers in 2018, he opted to attend college rather than begin his pro career at that stage.  He instead signed with the Brewers in 2020, as Reifert wasn’t selected in the shortened five-round 2020 draft.

The 22-year-old righty looked good in his first season, posting a 2.10 ERA with a stunning 40.23% strikeout rate over 60 combined relief innings with the Brewers’ high-A and A-ball affiliates.  Those missed bats came with some shaky control, however, as Reifert’s walk rate was a concerning 14.06%.  Reifert possesses an upper-90s fastball, so if the Rays can improve his command, the team will have yet another hard-throwing bullpen weapon at their disposal in the next season or two.

Brewers Hire Ozzie Timmons, Connor Dawson As Hitting Coaches

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The Brewers announced this afternoon that they’ve hired Ozzie Timmons and Connor Dawson as co-hitting coaches. They’re also planning to hire an assistant hitting coach to work underneath Timmons and Dawson, tweets Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. They’ll replace Andy Haines, whose contract was not renewed last month.

Timmons has spent the past four seasons on the Rays’ coaching staff. He’d split his time between base coaching and serving as Tampa Bay’s assistant hitting coach before getting a bump to full-time assistant hitting coach last month. Just a few weeks later, he’ll land a more significant role in Milwaukee. An outfielder in his playing days, the 51-year-old Timmons appeared in parts of five big league seasons from 1995-2000.

Dawson comes over from the Mariners, where he’d been Seattle’s minor league hitting coordinator. The 28-year-old had previously spent a couple seasons coaching in the M’s system and now gets his first job on a big league staff.

Mets Still Targeting David Stearns After His Brewers Contract Ends

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1:15PM: Stearns is “happily employed” with the Brewers, he told MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  Stearns also declined to clarify how many years or possible years may remain on his Brewers contract.

8:14AM: The Mets have twice been denied in their attempts to interview David Stearns about their president of baseball operations job, as Brewers owner Mark Attanasio declined the Mets’ requests both last season and earlier this offseason.  However, the Mets are seemingly prepared to simply wait the Brewers out, as The Athletic’s Tim Britton, Britt Ghiroli, and Ken Rosenthal report that New York will approach Stearns about their front office vacancy next winter, when his contract with the Brewers may or may not be up.

In the interim, the Mets’ search has been focused on assistant general manager types, who would become the club’s GM in 2022.  (Former Nationals AGM Adam Cromie has recently emerged as a favorite for the job.)  Should the Mets’ plan to land Stearns come to fruition, Cromie or whomever ends up in the GM role would then become the ops department’s chief lieutenant to Stearns, who would carry the official PBO title and sit at the top of the Amazins’ decision-making pyramid.

It would make for an unusual dynamic for at least one season in the team’s front office, not that there has been much normalcy associated with the Mets’ very public search to date.  Several potential candidates have already declined interviews with the Mets, quite likely because of the associated uncertainty.  Looking it from the perspective of an assistant GM, if you’re comfortable with your current team, why take the risk of accepting what might be a one-year job, should Stearns (or another incoming boss that you aren’t familiar with) decides that they want their own handpicked GM as their top lieutenant?

Waiting for Stearns also carries its own set of challenges for the Mets.  “Stearns has serious interest in the position,” Britton/Ghiroli/Rosenthal write, which isn’t really surprising given that Stearns grew up as a Mets fan in New York and even interned in the club’s front office in 2008.  It could be that some unofficial back-channel communication may have already taken place between the two sides, though Stearns’ feelings about the job could change if and when he has a formal interview with team officials.  (It can also be assumed that Attanasio would likely be on the lookout for any sort of early talks of any kind between Stearns and the Mets, should he feel tampering is taking place.)

Stearns has also enjoyed a lot of success in Milwaukee, and could prefer to remain with the Brewers on another contract extension, or perhaps even investigate a potential job opening with another team besides the Brewers or Mets.  Plus, Stearns’ contractual situation is a little unclear.  The Mets reportedly believe Stearns will be available next winter, though reports have suggested some type of vesting option could be in place for Stearns to remain with in Milwaukee through the 2023 season.  If this option does exist and it vests, the Mets would find themselves putting their front office plans on hold for yet another season — assuming Stearns would remain at the top of their list, and another executive didn’t emerge in the interim.

Joakim Soria Retires

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Right-handed pitcher Joakim Soria is retiring, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, relaying word from Soria’s agent. The 37-year-old pitched for nine different teams over 14 MLB seasons.

Soria made his MLB debut for the Kansas City Royals back in 2007, throwing 69 innings with an ERA of 2.48 and notching 17 saves. He became a mainstay of the Royals’ bullpen through the 2011 campaign. In those five seasons, he pitched 315 1/3 innings with an ERA of 2.40 and racked up 160 saves. He was an All-Star twice, in 2008 and 2010.

That would prove to be the best stretch of Soria’s career, although he continued to be an effective reliever for another decade, pitching for the Rangers, Tigers and Pirates, returning to the Royals, and then stints with White Sox, Brewers and Athletics. In 2021, he started the season with the Diamondbacks and was later traded to the Blue Jays.

Over his entire career, he threw 763 innings with an ERA of 3.11, along with 831 strikeouts and 229 saves. MLBTR congratulates Soria on a fine career and wishes him all the best in his future endeavors.

Brewers Won’t Issue Qualifying Offer To Avisail Garcia

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NOVEMBER 7: The Brewers won’t issue a qualifying offer to Garcia or any of their free agents, MLB.com’s Tim McCalvy reports (via Twitter).

NOVEMBER 5: Avisail Garcia declined his end of a $12MM mutual option with the Brewers yesterday, opting for a $2MM buyout and a return trip to the free agent market. Before he formally hits free agency on Sunday at 5pm ET, however, the Brewers will have the opportunity to issue him a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer. No decision on that front has been made just yet, but the Brewers are indeed considering that course of action, writes Will Sammon of The Athletic.

If Milwaukee does issue a qualifying offer Sunday, Garcia would have ten days to determine whether to accept or reject. Garcia and agent Gene Mato would be able to negotiate with other teams during that ten-day window in order to get an early sense of the market. If Garcia were to accept that $18.4MM offer, he’d be signed for the 2022 season and effectively ineligible to be traded prior to next June 15, as is the case with all free agents who sign Major League contracts.

Were Garcia to reject the offer, he’d be subject to draft pick compensation; any team that signed Garcia would do so at the cost of forfeitures in next year’s draft. The exact compensation varies from team to team. Teams that paid the luxury tax in 2021 (i.e. Dodgers, Padres) would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest picks in the draft, in addition to $1MM of next year’s league-allotted international bonus pool. Teams that received revenue-sharing would forfeit their third-highest pick in the draft. Any of the 15 other teams would forfeit its second-highest pick and see a $500K reduction in its international bonus pool. (The team-by-team breakdown of those categories can be seen in this previous piece from MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes.)

The Brewers, meanwhile, would receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2022 draft if Garcia signs a contract worth $50MM or more in guaranteed money. Should Garcia sign for less, Milwaukee would receive a compensatory pick after next year’s Competitive Balance Round B — typically in the No. 75 to 80 range.

On the one hand, making an offer is a risk for the Brewers. There’s at least a chance that Garcia would accept the offer in hopes of producing another strong season and returning to the open market next year, without the burden of draft compensation. Garcia accepting a qualifying offer would push Milwaukee’s projected payroll up into the $140MM range for next season — well north of the team’s current Opening Day record of about $122.5MM (from 2019).

On the other hand, Garcia’s 2021 season — .262/.330/.490, 29 home runs, 18 doubles, eight stolen bases, strong right field defense — was certainly worth that $18.4MM. Were he to accept and repeat that production, it’d hardly be an egregious overpay. And, that strong showing both at the plate and in the field has made Garcia a clear candidate for a multi-year deal in free agency. He’s not likely to secure that same $18.4MM value on an annual basis, but he could earn a much larger guarantee over a longer term. Players reject the qualifying offer more often than they accept, as most generally prefer the stability and security of a long-term deal. Longer-term pacts protect them against any injury or regression that might occur in the event of accepting the QO, and it’s eminently understandable that players with families prefer the continuity of a multi-year pact rather than moving those families around the continent on a year-to-year basis.

Market context matters, too. There’s a fair number of corner outfield options on the market this winter, with Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Starling Marte (who can also play center), Mark Canha, Michael Conforto, Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario among the available options. Garcia falls into the middle of that group, but his stock could be strengthened by the fact that not every team will be able to afford the very top-of-the-market options. Garcia could well be viewed as one of the more palatable options in that next tier, offering a promising blend of power, athleticism and defense.

Luke Maile, Eric Yardley Elect Free Agency

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The Brewers announced today that catcher Luke Maile and right-handed pitcher Eric Yardley have elected free agency after being outrighted. Neither player was a major contributor in Milwaukee in 2021, though Maile posted a strong .816 OPS (albeit in only 34 plate appearances). Yardley put together an excellent showing in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, including a sparkling 1.54 ERA in 23 1/3 innings of relief, but was eminently hittable in 2021, pitching to a 6.75 ERA in 18 2/3 big-league innings.

While Maile’s strong line in limited action is sure to draw a bit of attention, his career numbers in the Majors are considerably more pedestrian — .203/.258/.310 in 691 PAs. It’s his glove (and arm) that lead his tool-set. In parts of six seasons with the Rays, Blue Jays, and Brewers, Maile has thrown out 34% of would-be base-stealers and logged 21 defensive runs saved in 220 games behind the dish. At minimum, he’s sure to receive a minor-league deal with a chance to compete for a backup role, but he could be a candidate for guaranteed money.

Yardley’s future is less clear, though his stellar 2020 probably guarantees him at least a shot to catch on somewhere. Undrafted out of Seattle University, the soft-tossing submariner played in the independent Pecos League before signing a minor league deal with the Padres in 2013. He consistently posted strong numbers in the minors before making his debut in San Diego in 2019, though the Padres designated him for assignment that offseason despite a strong 2.31 ERA across 11 2/3 innings with the big club. He’ll hope to be given another shot to show he can limit hard contact and provide Major League value despite a fastball that sits in the high 80s.

Avisail Garcia Declines Mutual Option, Becomes Free Agent

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Brewers outfielder Avisail Garcia has declined his half of a $12MM mutual option for the 2022 season, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). He’ll instead receive a $2MM buyout and head out into the free agent market in search of another multi-year deal.

Avisail Garcia | Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Garcia, 31 next June, struggled through the 2020 season in Milwaukee but enjoyed one of the finest seasons of his career in a rebound 2021 showing. The former Tigers, White Sox and Rays slugger swatted a career-best 29 home runs this season while posting a strong .262/.330/.490 batting line — about 15 percent better than league-average production, by measure of wRC+. His original two-year, $20MM deal with the Brewers came with a $12MM club option that the team could very well have exercised. However, the contract also contained a provision that converted that option into a mutual option with enough plate appearances, and Garcia reached that threshold back in September, earning the right to return to the free-agent market.

This will be the second foray into the free-agent market for Garcia, who posted a similar 113 wRC+ mark in his last platform year (2019). However, Garcia hit for more power in ’21 than he did in ’19 and also drew better defensive grades for his outfield work this year (in part because the 2019 Rays occasionally deployed him in center, to sub-par results).

Another multi-year deal for Garcia seems quite likely, as he’s wrapped up a strong season and further solidified the notion that he’s capable of being a team’s everyday right fielder. Garcia crushed lefties in 2021 (.279/.406/.529), as he is wont to do, and delivered league-average output against right-handed opponents. The question for him in free agency will be the extent by which he can eclipse his prior contract.

The improved power output and defensive ratings are obvious points in Garcia’s favor, but he’s now also two years older than last time around. His 2021 Statcast profile is quite appealing, as Garcia ranked in the 73rd percentile of MLB hitters in average exit velocity and had strong percentile showings in hard-hit rate (78th), expected batting average (83rd), expected slugging (87th), expected wOBA (85th) and sprint speed (88th). Then again, much of that was true in 2019 (albeit not quite to this extent).

Garcia has long shown a knack for hard contact and far more speed than one would expect from a player listed at 6’4″ and 250 pounds. The 2021 season, however, is the first that he’s delivered truly high-end power output with the type of plus defensive ratings that align with his tantalizing tool set. The Brewers technically have the right to make him an $18.4MM qualifying offer, but that’d register as something of a surprise given the typically tight payroll in Milwaukee.

Jackie Bradley Jr. To Exercise 2022 Player Option To Remain With Brewers

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Brewers outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. will be exercising his $9.5MM player option to remain in Milwaukee for the 2022 season, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).  Bradley would have received a $6.5MM buyout had he chosen to decline the option and re-enter the free agent market.  Bradley and the Brewers share a $12MM mutual option for the 2023 season that contains an $8MM buyout.

It was expected that Bradley would pick up his option in the wake of the worst hitting season of his nine-year MLB career.  While Bradley’s numbers at the plate have always been somewhat inconsistent, his production utterly plummeted in 2021, with only a .163/.236/.261 slash line and six home runs over 428 plate appearances.  Due to his late signing, Bradley missed the first month of Spring Training, yet that lack of preparation time hardly accounts for a career-worst walk rate (6.5%) and strikeout rate (30.8%).

The offensive numbers were poor enough that Bradley was still a negative-fWAR player (-0.8) even despite his still-excellent glovework.  Bradley is a finalist for the NL center field Gold Glove, and looking to earn the award for the second time, after capturing AL honors with the Red Sox in 2018.  For a medium-market team like the Brewers, $9.5MM is a hefty price for a defense-only player, even a stellar fielder like Bradley.  It doesn’t help that the Brew Crew are also paying $18MM to Lorenzo Cain next season, another excellent defender whose bat has fallen off (though not to the extent of Bradley’s struggles).

If Milwaukee looked to carve out payroll space by trading one of the two, Bradley is probably the easier sell, if a team is willing to roll the dice on a rebound at the plate and is intrigued by the extra year of control if Bradley’s hitting does rebound.  A significant chunk of Bradley’s contract is deferred, so in terms of pure dollars, the Brewers have only paid Bradley $3MM thus far, though the future deferrals could complicate any trade possibilities.

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