- On paper, the pairing of Carlos Santana and Alex Kirilloff gives the Twins a platoon at first base, though manager Rocco Baldelli told The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman and other reporters that “I don’t think of it as a traditional platoon in any way because one of our guys [Santana] is a switch hitter. You end up with different options because Santana can play pretty much any day….It just gives us a lot of flexibility.” Since Minnesota also wants to give Kirilloff at-bats and keep him healthy, the defensively superior Santana figures to get the majority of the work at first base and Kirilloff could be DH, with both players appearing in the same lineup on a regular basis. Two wrist surgeries and a shoulder surgery have limited Kirilloff to 192 games and 706 PA over his first three big league seasons, so adding Santana on a one-year, $5.25MM deal allowed Minnesota to bolster the first base position.
Twins Rumors
Enrique Hernandez Reportedly Deciding Between Four Teams
Free agent utility player Enrique Hernandez is deciding between the Giants, Angels, Twins, and Padres, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The news comes on the heels of a report yesterday that indicated Hernandez was nearing a decision.
Hernandez, 32, opened the 2024 season as the starting shortstop for the Red Sox, though he struggled both with the glove and at the plate in the role. After slashing .222/.279/.320 in 323 trips to the plate with Boston in the first half of the season, the club shipped Hernandez to the Dodgers for the stretch run. It was a homecoming for Hernandez, who had already played in L.A. for six seasons before signing in Boston prior to the 2021 season via free agency, and in his return to the Dodgers he found some success in a bench role. Hernandez slashed a roughly league average .262/.308/.423 down the stretch in L.A. while bouncing between every spot on the diamond except for catcher.
The veteran has generally been utilized as a bench bat throughout his career, filling in all over the diamond thanks to his versatility and often getting reps against southpaws due to a career .801 OPS against left-handed pitching. That being said, Hernandez typically provides slightly below average offense overall. Since first joining the Dodgers prior to the 2015 season, Hernandez sports a career slash line of .239/.310/.408, good for a wRC+ of 93. That lack of offensive presence has typically kept him from securing a full-time role; 2023 was just the second season of Hernandez’s career where he totaled 500 plate appearances in a season despite routinely appearing in 130 or more games for his club.
Looking at the reported suitors for Hernandez’s services, the Angels are perhaps the least surprising given their previously reported interest in the 32-year-old. It’s easy to see why the Halos would have interest in Hernandez’s services. While the club has plenty of interesting pieces backing up superstar Mike Trout in the lineup, the club’s lineup offers little in the way of certainty. Trout and former star slugger Anthony Rendon have been plagued by injury woes in recent years that have kept both veterans off the field more often than not, while exciting youngsters like Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel have potential but are hardly a guarantee to produce in the majors after short stays in the minor leagues.
Hernandez’s versatility would allow him to cover for virtually any player in the Anaheim lineup in the event of injury or under-performance, and the DH spot left open by the departure of Shohei Ohtani could provide Hernandez a path to semi-regular at-bats even in the event the club’s starting lineup manages to stay healthy and effective. Hernandez’s versatility could also allow the club to offer more consistency to 26-year-old infielder Luis Rengifo, who appears poised to enter the year as the club’s starting second baseman but appeared at six different positions in 2023.
The other three suitors for Hernandez’s services had not been publicly connected to the veteran previously. That being said, each of them could make plenty of sense as a fit for the utility man. The Padres, in particular, are in clear need of outfield depth after entering the spring with just two outfielders on their 40-man roster in Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jose Azocar. They’ve added Jurickson Profar on a big league deal since then and have non-roster invitees such as Oscar Mercado attempting to earn a roster spot in Spring Training, but Hernandez would offer the club a steady, veteran presence off the bench who can handle all three outfield spots and could take pressure off prospects like Jackson Merrill and Jakob Marsee to prove themselves ready for regular big league action.
The roster fit for Hernandez in Minnesota and San Francisco is a little less obvious, as both clubs already have crowded positional mixes. With that being said, the presence of Hernandez could provide the Giants with some veteran stability at shortstop should youngster Marco Luciano not hit the ground running at the position, and Hernandez’s right-handed bat could serve as a strong complement to an outfield featuring a trio of lefty regulars in Michael Conforto, Jung Hoo Lee, and Mike Yastrzemski.
Meanwhile, the Twins have a several young lefty bats in their lineup such as Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, and Matt Wallner. Adding Hernandez to the club’s positional mix would give the club a right-handed bat to complement those youngsters while also providing a clear backup option in center field should oft-injured star Byron Buxton return to the shelf at some point this season. Buxton also isn’t the only piece on the Twins’ roster that has struggled with injuries in recent years, as each of Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, and Carlos Correa also dealt with injury woes last season. While it might be hard for Minnesota to fit Hernandez on their roster as things stand, the club could attempt to clear roster space by shopping fellow utility player Kyle Farmer or even simply option Jose Miranda, who figured to serve as a right-handed bat off the club’s bench this year, to Triple-A to open the season.
AL Central Notes: Twins, Miller, Valera, Carpenter
The Twins brought back four players from the Mariners in exchange for Jorge Polanco last month, though Minnesota’s first target was right-hander Bryce Miller, Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports. Miller and fellow rookie Bryan Woo were among the most sought-after trade targets of the winter, yet the Mariners weren’t eager to move either pitcher, or anyone from their crop of young and controllable starters. While Polanco fills a big need for Seattle at second base, he is only under team control through the 2025 season, so any kind of Polanco-for-Miller swap would’ve needed to be much different on Minnesota’s end to land Miller’s services.
More from around the AL Central…
- Guardians outfield prospect George Valera will miss “several weeks” after suffering a left hamstring strain, according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer (X link). Valera missed a big chunk of the 2023 season due to hamstring injuries and a hamate surgery, and the result was an unremarkable .220/.349/.397 slash line over 338 minor league plate appearances, mostly at the Triple-A level. Valera had been a regular on top-100 prospect lists prior to his 2023 disappointment, and his readiness for the start of the Triple-A season could now be in question depending on how much time he misses with his latest injury.
- Kerry Carpenter is also dealing with a strain to his left hamstring, though the Tigers slugger is only slated to miss a few days for now, manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press). Hinch described the situation as “precautionary,” and Carpenter didn’t think he was going to be out for long. Over his first two MLB seasons, Carpenter has hit .273/.334/.474 with 26 homers over 572 PA, and is expected to play a key role as the Tigers’ regular designated hitter in 2024.
Pohlad: Twins “Not In The Market” For Top Remaining Free Agents
As the baseball world collectively wonders where top-tier free agents like Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman will sign, it seems scarcely a day goes by without at least one team effectively proclaiming itself to be out of that market. The Rangers, Blue Jays, Angels, Giants, Nationals and Mariners have all seen a top baseball ops executive or ownership representative cast doubt on their ability and/or willingness to make further free agent additions of note. Add the Twins to that growing list, as owner Joe Pohlad said in an appearance with WCCO radio’s Jason DeRusha today that his club isn’t likely to make a significant late splash like they did when signing Carlos Correa a couple offseasons ago (audio link).
“…We’re not going to go out and spend $30MM on a player right now,” Pohlad plainly stated without mentioning any of Bellinger, Snell, Montgomery or Chapman by name. “The players that are out there right now that probably a bunch of fans are talking about, we are not in the market for those players.”
Minnesota never looked like a good fit for either of the position players — particularly Chapman — but the Twins are known to be looking for rotation help after seeing Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle depart as free agents. A late deal with Snell or Montgomery would’ve registered as something of a surprise, given the organization’s candid acknowledgment of plans to reduce payroll amid television uncertainty this winter, but their late entry into the Correa market a couple winters ago might’ve left some to wonder whether a similar approach could be in the offing here. Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote just yesterday that he “would not discount the Twins as a wild card” for the remaining starters, but Pohlad’s comments today strongly suggest otherwise.
The Twins said early this winter that payroll would likely take a step back, and at the time, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported a rough target of $125-140MM. Minnesota currently sits just south of that number, at a projected $123.5MM per Roster Resource. It should be noted that Pohlad did not rule out any subsequent additions at all — rather just a big play at the top end of the market.
“…There are definitely other players that can have a positive impact on our team that [president of baseball operations Derek Falvey], I’m sure, is looking at,” Pohlad added.
The Twins, for instance, have reportedly expressed interest in unsigned players like Michael Lorenzen, Adam Duvall and Michael A. Taylor. Signing one or even two of those names would cost considerably less than a run at Montgomery or Snell. They also watched old friend Jake Odorizzi’s recent workout for teams. Falvey and his staff have also never been ones to shy away from trades late in the offseason. Deals to acquire Pablo Lopez (Jan. 23) and Odorizzi (Feb. 17) were both completed well after the New Year in their respective offseasons. The acquisition of Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan came on the eve of Opening Day in 2022. It remains possible that some pitching or right-handed-hitting outfield help could be acquired via that market.
Generally speaking, it’s been a quiet offseason for the Twins. They shipped stalwart infielder Jorge Polanco to the Mariners late last month in a deal netting right-handers Justin Topa and Anthony DeSclafani and prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen. Minnesota netted about $6.5MM in that deal as well and reinvested that money in free agent deals to sign Carlos Santana and Jay Jackson. More recently, they flipped utilityman Nick Gordon to the Marlins for lefty reliever Steven Okert.
Twins Still Interested In Michael A. Taylor
The Twins are known to be looking for rotation depth and a right-handed-hitting outfielder even as spring training gets underway, and Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that Minnesota hasn’t ruled out a reunion with Michael A. Taylor. The veteran Taylor was seeking a two-year deal earlier in the offseason, per the report, though it’s not clear whether that ask remains in place.
Taylor, 33 next month, played his typical brand of plus defense in 2023 with the Twins. He logged 960 innings in center field and wound up being credited with five Defensive Runs Saved and eight Outs Above Average. He went 13-for-14 in stolen base attempts, adding to his track record as a contributor on the basepaths. His season at the plate was a bit more unusual, at least by his standards.
Though he’s not typically known for his power, Taylor belted a career-high 21 homers in just 388 trips to the plate. His .223 isolated power mark (slugging percentage minus batting average) was 83 points higher than the .140 career mark he carried into the season. That surge came at a cost, however. Taylor appeared to perhaps be selling out for power, as his 33.5% strikeout rate was easily a career-high mark over a full season — and nearly 10 percentage points higher than the 23.9% mark he’d turned in with the Royals just one year prior. Taylor finished out the season batting just .220 with a paltry .274 on-base percentage but a heartier .442 slugging percentage.
By all accounts, Taylor enjoyed his time in Minnesota. He said back in October that he hoped to return for the 2024 season. However, he’s not likely to have the same role waiting for him if he opts to return. Byron Buxton didn’t play a single game in center field last season as he battled lingering effects from offseason knee surgery. Buxton is slated to return to center field work this season, which would leave less playing time available for Taylor at Target Field. Of course, Buxton’s injury history is among the lengthiest in baseball, so there’d likely be some stretches where Taylor is pressed into regular duty in center — but it nonetheless seems unlikely he’d approach 1000 innings in the outfield in 2024, as he did last year.
That said, even in the unlikely event that Buxton were healthy enough to play nearly everyday in center, there’d still be ways to get Taylor into the lineup. He tattooed left-handed pitching in ’23, hitting .252/.313/.602 with nine homers in only 112 plate appearances. The Twins will have lefty-swinging bats in both the outfield corners — Matt Wallner, Max Kepler — and could use Taylor to spell either player against southpaw opponents. Kepler is a premium defender himself, making him unlikely to be lifted for a late-game defensive replacement. Wallner, on the other hand, is more of a bat-first left fielder and could be swapped out in such situations. A defensive outfield with Taylor in left, Buxton in center and Kepler in right would be among the best in the game.
Taylor has drawn interest from a wide range of teams this offseason. Each of the Pirates, Angels, Padres, Blue Jays, Reds, Dodgers and Red Sox have been linked to him at various points throughout free agency. Some of those clubs (e.g. Dodgers, Jays) have since gone in other directions in their outfield search, but Taylor is still stands as a fit with many of them.
Minnesota’s front office is likely working with a somewhat limited budget. The Twins stated early in the offseason that they planned to reduce payroll due to uncertainty regarding their television broadcast situation, with Dan Hayes of The Athletic reporting a $125-140MM range as the target at the time. They’re currently projected at about $123.5MM, per Roster Resource, so there’s certainly room to add Taylor back into the fold. Adding Taylor and another arm could prove more difficult within those budgetary constraints, barring some type of late trade to free up a bit more payroll space (e.g. Kyle Farmer). The Twins have also reportedly shown interest in righty-hitting outfielder Adam Duvall. Other options on the market include Randal Grichuk, Enrique Hernandez, Tommy Pham and perhaps Whit Merrifield, who’s expecting to decide on his next team within the next couple days.
MLBTR Podcast: Jorge Soler, Veteran Catcher Signings and the Padres’ Payroll Crunch
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Giants to sign Jorge Soler (1:25)
- The Brewers to sign Gary Sánchez (11:15)
- The Pirates to sign Yasmani Grandal (18:55)
- The Padres to sign Jurickson Profar (23:35)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Which teams do you think have a chance to exceed expectations this year like the Diamondbacks and Reds did last year? (26:00)
- Matt Chapman to the Cubs for one year and $27MM plus a $30MM mutual option for 2025 with a $3MM buyout, who says no? (30:40)
- Does Carlos Santana make the Twins better? (34:00)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Sale of the Orioles, Corbin Burnes Traded and Bobby Witt Jr. Extended – listen here
- The Jorge Polanco Trade, Rhys Hoskins and the Blue Jays’ Plans – listen here
- The Broadcasting Landscape, Josh Hader and the Relief Market – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Twins Sign Jeff Brigham, Brian O’Keefe To Minor League Deals
The Twins announced a batch of non-roster invitees to Spring Training today. It included various players on previously-reported minor league deals, as well as right-hander Jeff Brigham and catcher Brian O’Keefe. It also featured right-handers Jordan Balazovic and Daniel Duarte, both of whom were recently designated for assignment. Darren Wolfson of SKOR North relayed today that Balazovic cleared waivers while Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune was among those to relay the same for Duarte.
It’s a bit of an early birthday present for Brigham, who turns 32 on Friday. The righty is coming off a disappointing year with the Mets. Acquired from the Marlins in November of 2022, he spent 2023 as an up-and-down depth arm for the Mets. He made 37 appearances with the big league club but allowed 5.26 earned runs per nine innings. His 26.3% strikeout rate was quite strong but he also issued walks to 11.3% of batters faced. He also fared poorly in Triple-A, though in a tiny sample of nine innings.
The Mets non-tendered Brigham at season’s end rather than pay him an arbitration salary, which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected would be $1.1MM. The Twins will take a no-risk look at him in camp and see if there’s anything that intrigues them. He’s not too far removed from better results, as he posted a 3.38 ERA with the Marlins in 2022, as well as a 27.7% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate. But the stuff may be a concern, as his velo has been dropping. His fastball averaged 96.6 miles per hour in 2019 but he missed most of 2020 due to a biceps injury. His fastball velo dropped to 94.5 mph in 2022 and then 93.5 mph last year.
He’ll give the Twins a bit of non-roster bullpen depth, alongside guys like Matt Bowman, A.J. Alexy, Hobie Harris and Jared Solomon. If Brigham is added to the roster at any point, he still has an option year remaining and less than four years of service time.
O’Keefe, 30, has a small MLB résumé, having appeared in 10 games for the Mariners over the past two seasons. He hit .136/.240/.227 in his 25 plate appearances over that span. He’s had just over 1,000 trips to the plate in Triple-A, hitting .247/.333/.475, though with all of that time spent in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Baseball Prospectus has looked kindly upon his framing and blocking throughout his minor league career.
The Twins have Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vázquez set to be their catching duo in the big leagues. The latter appeared in some trade rumors over the winter but nothing has come together. Jair Camargo is on the roster but has options and is likely to be in Triple-A. O’Keefe will likely join him in a non-roster capacity and will be on hand should an injury arise.
Balazovic, 25, was once a top 100 prospect but his stock has fallen significantly of late. He posted a 7.39 ERA in 22 Triple-A appearances in 2022, with Baseball America noting that his stuff had diminished in terms of velocity. In 2023, it was reported in February that he had a broken jaw due to “an altercation away from the field.” He went on to post 5.32 ERA in Triple-A and a 4.44 ERA in the majors. That big league work came with unimpressive peripherals such as a 15.7% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate.
He is now out of options and would need an active roster spot, in addition to a 40-man spot. It seems no club was willing to take a chance on him, despite the former prospect pedigree, so he will stick with the Twins as non-roster depth. He doesn’t have a previous career outright nor the three years of service time that would allow him to elect free agency.
As for Duarte, 27, he finally cleared waivers after spending the winter touring around the league. He was designated for assignment by the Reds in January and then went to the Rangers on a cash deal and then to the Twins on a waiver claim.
He had an ERA of 3.69 with Cincinnati last year but only struck out 16.9% of batters faced while giving out walks at a 14.7% clip. His 50% ground ball rate surely helped but he won’t be able to maintain a .218 batting average on balls in play or 81.6% strand rate going forward.
His interest around the league likely stemmed from his strong Triple-A numbers. In 35 innings at that level last year, he had a 3.34 ERA, 25.8% strikeout rate, 11.3% walk rate and 51.8% ground ball rate. Like Balazovic, he will have no choice but to accept this assignment and stick with the club as non-roster depth.
Reds Claim Bubba Thompson, Designate Levi Stoudt
The Reds announced to reporters, including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, that they have claimed outfielder Bubba Thompson off waivers. He had been designated for assignment by the Twins last week. In order to open up a spot for Thompson, the Reds designated right-hander Levi Stoudt for assignment.
Thompson, 26 in June, has been on the roster carousel for the past six months. Designated for assignment by the Rangers in August, he has since gone to the Royals, Reds, Yankees, Twins and now the Reds again on waiver claims. The high level of interest is a reflection of his elite speed and strong defensive abilities, while his tenuous hold on a roster spot is a result of his poor work at the plate.
He received 241 plate appearances with the Rangers over the past two seasons, walking in just 4.6% of them while striking out at a 29.9% clip. His .242/.286/.305 batting line translates to a wRC+ of just 65, indicating he’s been 35% worse than the league average hitter. He’s been better in the minors but still subpar. In 740 trips to the plate at Triple-A since the start of 2022, he has a 7.4% walk rate, 24.1% strikeout rate and .283/.346/.442 batting line for a wRC+ of 96.
But he’s one of the fastest runners in the game, with Statcast considering him to have 100th percentile sprint speed. He has 22 steals in 27 attempts at the major league level and dozens more in the minors. That speed has helped him earn strong defensive grades during his time in the big leagues.
He still has two option years and is clearly attractive to clubs around the league, either as a depth piece getting regular at-bats in the minors or a speed-and-defense guy off the bench. The Reds like him enough that this is the second time they have claimed him of late. He could wind up off the roster again in short order, but if he sticks, he’ll be fighting for a spot on their depth chart. They will have TJ Friedl, Will Benson, Jake Fraley and Stuart Fairchild in their outfield mix, while their crowded infield could push guys like Spencer Steer and Jonathan India to the grass.
Stoudt, now 26, came to the Reds as one of the players in the 2022 Luis Castillo trade. He was a prospect of note in the M’s system but his results have not carried up to the higher levels of the minors or to the majors. He got a brief MLB debut last year, throwing 10 1/3 innings with 11 earned runs allowed. His 82 1/3 Triple-A innings resulted in a 6.23 ERA, 15.1% strikeout rate and 13% walk rate.
It was obviously a challenging year for him and he’s now been squeezed of the Reds’ roster. They will have a week to find a trade for him or pass him through waivers. He still has a couple of options and there are lots of club in need of pitching, which could perhaps help him find a new club in the coming days.
Jake Odorizzi Throws For Clubs
Free agent right-hander Jake Odorizzi is healthy and looking for a deal, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The righty reportedly threw off a mound in front of evaluators representing about a third of the clubs in the league. The Twins were one club that were there watching, per Darren Wolfson of SKOR North, though their interest level is unclear.
Odorizzi, 34 next month, is coming off an entirely missed season. He was traded from Atlanta to Texas at the end of the 2022 campaign after triggering a player option. Atlanta agreed to pay down $10MM of the $12.5MM salary on that player option, leaving Texas to pay just $2.5MM. But that money ended up wasted, as Odorizzi dealt with some arm fatigue in Spring Training and ultimately required a season-ending arthroscopic procedure on his right shoulder.
His offers will undoubtedly be limited after that lost season and shoulder injury, but it could also present a buy-low opportunity for clubs if any of them are encouraged by his health. Odorizzi has spent many years in the big leagues as a solid mid-rotation guy, having made 241 appearances since his 2012 debut, 237 of those being starts. His 1,253 1/3 innings have seen him allow 3.99 earned runs per nine, striking out 22.2% of batters faced while walking 8.1%.
Various clubs around the league are working with tighter budgets this winter due to uncertainty regarding the broadcast revenue situation, with one of those being the Twins. They opened last year with a payroll of $153MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but are reportedly trying to get that down to the $125-140MM range for this year’s opener.
They are currently at $124MM, per Roster Resource, but with a clearly diminished rotation. Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle all reached free agency and signed with other clubs. Chris Paddack returned from his Tommy John surgery absence late last year and could make up for those losses somewhat and the Twins acquired Anthony DeSclafani from the Mariners, but the overall group is clearly less inspiring than it was a year ago. Reporting from earlier today suggested that the club is still looking to add to their starting mix.
The Twins clearly know and like Odorizzi, as he pitched for them from 2018 to 2020. If they feel he can get back to where he was during that time, a low-cost flier would make plenty of sense. The Twins were just one club present to watch Odorizzi throw and there are plenty of others who could be a fit.
The Padres have also been slashing payroll and have lost Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill and Nick Martínez to free agency. Snell is still out there but the club’s tight budget makes it unlikely they’ll get him back or sign any other big name. The Rays have a payroll that is set to be a franchise record and they could use some more pitching. Like the Twins, they are familiar with Odorizzi from a previous stint, as he was with Tampa from 2013 to 2017. Just about any club could use an extra bit of pitching depth and Spring Training always leads to injuries that will only exacerbate those needs.
The big question will naturally be Odorizzi’s health. Beyond the recent shoulder procedure and long layoff, he’s had other issues. In 2021, he went on the injured list due to a right pronator muscle strain and some right foot soreness, whereas the 2022 season saw him miss time due to lower left leg discomfort. He topped out just over 100 innings in both of those campaigns. Thanks to those injuries and the pandemic, he hasn’t had anything close to a full starter’s workload since 2019. But he was fairly steady prior to that, tossing between 140 and 190 innings in six straight years from 2014 to 2019. His ERA finished between 3.35 and 4.49 in each of those campaigns.
Twins Still Exploring Starting Pitching Market
The Twins lost a trio of starters in free agency, as Sonny Gray signed with the Cardinals, Kenta Maeda signed with the division-rival Tigers, and Tyler Mahle signed with the World Series-champion Rangers. The acquisition of Anthony DeSclafani helps to replenish some depth, but they’re still poking around the market for further starting pitching help.
Both Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune and Jon Morosi of MLB Network (video link) have suggested recently that Minnesota could make some further additions before long. The Twins, who’ve scaled back payroll while spending much of the offseason facing questions about their television broadcast rights, aren’t likely to sign Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. The Twins reportedly had interest in Michael Lorenzen prior to adding DeSclafani, and Morosi suggests that pitchers like Lorenzen and Noah Syndergaard are in the general price range the Twins are actively considering.
As things stand, the Twins still have a solid group of starters, though the depth isn’t as strong heading into 2024 as it appeared to be in 2023. Pablo Lopez had the third-most strikeouts in all of baseball last season while finishing ninth innings pitched and logging a 3.66 ERA. He’ll lead the staff, followed by righties Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. The former carried a sub-3.00 ERA with outstanding K/BB marks through his first 15 starts before fading down the stretch. He’ll look for a stronger finish to the 2024 season but has nonetheless cemented himself as a useful big league starter. The latter touts a 3.37 ERA, 24.5% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate in 200 1/3 frames dating back to 2022.
Beyond that trio, the Twins are hoping to get a full season’s worth of starts from righty Chris Paddack, who returned from Tommy John surgery late in 2023 and pitched well out of the bullpen. The former Padre allowed three runs in 8 2/3 innings between the regular season and postseason, turning in an electric 14-to-1 K/BB ratio in that time (41.8% strikeout rate, 2.9% walk rate). However, the 28-year-old has just 40 2/3 innings total since 2022 (minors and postseason included), and he’s only reached 100 innings in two MLB seasons. Counting on him for 30 starts seems wildly optimistic.
The veteran DeSclafani and 26-year-old right-hander Louie Varland will vie for the final starting job. DeSclafani, 34, has battled injuries over the past two seasons and pitched poorly when on the field, but he gave the Giants 31 starts of 3.17 ERA ball as recently as 2021. The Twins are only on the hook for $4MM of this season’s $12MM salary, with the Giants paying $6MM and the Mariners kicking in $2MM as part of the Jorge Polanco trade with the Mariners that also brought reliever Justin Topa and top prospect Gabriel Gonzalez to Minnesota. Varland has pitched 94 innings of 4.40 ERA ball in the big leagues. He was immensely homer-prone in 2023 (2.12 HR/9), but he boasts strong strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates, leading metrics like SIERA and xFIP (which normalize home-run rate) to peg his 2023 performance at solid marks of 3.77 and 3.81.
It’s a fine top six, but the departure of Maeda and particularly Gray, who finished second in AL Cy Young voting this past season, still loom large. The Twins will surely be banking on more consistency from Ryan and more innings from Paddack, but there’s no getting around the fact that the group looks weaker than it did in 2023 — particularly late in the season, when Gray and Maeda were both pitching quite well.
Barring some type of surprising trade, it doesn’t seem likely that the Twins will find a way to replace the quality of Gray’s innings. Free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are still out there, but the Twins have been cutting payroll due to their murky television situation. Minnesota formally announced a one-year extension of their deal with Diamond Sports Group/Bally Sports today, though presumably at a lesser rate than they received in 2023. The outlook beyond that point remains unclear, too. A major splash for Snell or Montgomery would come as a shock.
Deepening the group by bringing in someone like Lorenzen probably wouldn’t give the Twins the same type of Game 1 or 2 playoff starter they had in Gray, but springing for quantity has some merit as well. Even adding 150 or so league-average innings would help to safeguard against injury concerns among the current group (Paddack and DeSclafani, most notably), push DeSclafani to a long-relief role to open the season and push Varland to Triple-A, where he could work out of the rotation and be summoned as injuries dictate. Roster Resource currently projects a $123.5MM payroll for the Twins — more than $30MM shy of last year’s season-end mark but in the general $125-140MM vicinity they were reportedly targeting for the upcoming season.