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Assessing The State Of The Josh Donaldson Market

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While most of this year’s top-tier free agents could stuff new-team swag in their family’s stockings, veteran third baseman Josh Donaldson remains unsigned a third of the way through January. That’s nothing compared to the laborious matchmaking processes we witnessed last year. And it’s hardly uncommon historically. But it does leave us with at least one protracted offseason drama to witness.

It has seemed at times as if momentum could be building toward a signing. But the latest run of reporting injects new uncertainty into the body of publicly reported information regarding the bidding.

Perhaps growing impatient with the increasingly drawn-out nature of the Donaldson negotiations, and/or seeking leverage in talks, the Twins have begun to explore the trade market for alternative approaches to improving their club, Dan Hayes and Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic report (subscription required). The Twins, per the report, have “seen an uptick” in the volume of trade talks over the past three days as they explore additions at a variety of positions. The club isn’t limiting itself to corner infield options and remains open to adding a starting pitcher if the opportunity presents itself.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty writes that the Nationals have “all but moved on from Donaldson.” That’s perhaps contradictory with recent reporting indicating that the Nats haven’t pulled their offer, but the two could also coexist. It’s plausible, for instance, that the Nationals could leave their previously standing offer on the table but that the team also doesn’t intend to actively pursue a signing and doesn’t expect to land Donaldson. At minimum, with Starlin Castro, Howie Kendrick, Eric Thames and Asdrubal Cabrera all in the fray, the D.C. org obviously feels no pressure to push up its bid.

At this point, it’s fair to wonder just how close the Donaldson camp will get to the third baseman’s reported asking price — said just a few days ago to sit in the vicinity of $110MM. Ever since Anthony Rendon signed, we’ve heard talk of heavy interest in Donaldson. And an expectation has emerged more recently that he would enter the rarefied nine-figure realm. Indeed, as we discussed last week, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that the Twins, Nationals and Braves “all have four-year offers out to [Donaldson] in that $100MM range.”

What exactly constitutes the “$100MM range” is perhaps subject to some degree of interpretation, but the most recent reports out of Minnesota and Atlanta don’t exactly dovetail with that line of thinking. 1500 SKOR North radio’s Darren Wolfson suggested that the Twins’ offer was more in the $80-85MM range, while MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reported on doubt as to whether the Atlanta organization was even close to the top bidder.

Notably, Dougherty writes in the aforementioned Washington Post column that the Nationals did indeed make a four-year, $100MM offer to Donaldson. But it’s important to bear in mind that, with the Nationals more than any other club, the surface-level number of an offer can be somewhat misleading. The Nationals utilize deferred money in their long-term contracts more than any club in baseball, and while there’s been no firm indication that their offer to Donaldson marked a continuation of that trend, it’d hardly be a surprise to learn that’s indeed the case. The Nats, after all, have baked deferrals into the contracts of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez and Matt Wieters in recent years. One of the primary reasons that Rendon was said to have spurned Washington’s final extension offer (seven years, $215MM) was because of significant deferred monies.

The question, then, is where the price pressure will come from at this point if Donaldson and his reps at MVP Sports Group are truly determined to secure a deal in the vicinity of that reported $110MM price point. That Donaldson remains unsigned well into January — Hayes notes that the Twins originally believed he preferred to sign prior to Christmas — suggests that none of the bidders have been willing to do so. And the loss of the Nationals as a driving force could leave Donaldson with two highly cost-conscious organizations patiently engaged in a staring contest.

MVP was able to find $300MM for Manny Machado last February, so we may presume some patience on that side of the table as well. But it’s tougher in this case to identify a club that could emerge as a viable nine-figure suitor for an already 34-year-old third baseman, even after an elite 2019 season. The Dodgers, Rangers, Phillies, and others could afford to but haven’t shown any appetite for a massive, lengthy pact. One or more of those clubs could in theory jolt the market a bit by dangling higher-AAV, shorter-term offers. But even in that scenario, getting into the desired realm would still require prodding the Atlanta and/or Minnesota organizations into stretching their valuations yet further. It could ultimately turn out that D.C. is the only place Donaldson can reach the century mark — even if only in nominal form, depending upon deferrals — though that could certainly still change.

It was always going to be difficult to push Donaldson into this rarefied air. As we debated our top 50 free agent list, we felt there’d be broad and strong interest in the hot corner stalwart. But we ultimately capped the prediction at three years and $75MM based upon his age and health history.

To be sure, we’ve rarely seen a player of quite this present-day ability available on the open market at this precise age. But the data points available suggest that teams have been unwilling both to extend on the length of the deal and to pay a premium annual salary. Kevin Brown was the original $100MM player. So far as we can ascertain, he’s also still the only man to receive a total promise of that magnitude entering his age-34 or later season. (The news of his signing was met with rather boldly stated consternation from some notable figures around the game.) Carlos Beltran was a monster in 2011, his age-34 season, but settled for a two-year, $26M deal in the ensuing winter. His health and performance trajectory in advance of free agency closely mirror those of Donaldson. Much more recently, Ben Zobrist secured four years, but at a relatively modest $56MM guarantee. Defensively limited slugger Edwin Encarnacion took down $60MM over three years entering his age-34 season.

That history hardly constitutes binding precedent. The market is made anew every winter. But there are other headwinds here for Donaldson, with aging curves trending younger and many MLB teams clearly prioritizing long-term payroll flexibility. This winter set up about as well as he could’ve hoped — he turned in a huge bounceback season, leaguewide spending has trended back up, and demand at third base has handily outstripped supply — but making it to his reported target salary always was and still remains an ambitious undertaking.

Latest On Josh Donaldson’s Market

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7:52pm: MLB.com’s Mark Bowman looks at the situation from the Braves’ standpoint, reporting that there’s some doubt that the Braves have even “come close” to making the top offer to Donaldson.

Similarly, Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North radio in Minneapolis reported today that while the Twins are still in the mix and have made a four-year offer, they’re not believed to be close to Donaldson’s reported $110MM asking price, either (Twitter links). The Twins don’t have the largest offer on the table, per Wolfson, who suggests that Minnesota could be in the $85MM range while cautioning that they’ve not yet been asked for a final offer. The two sides remain in “near-daily” communication.

That pair of reports at least implies that the Nationals might have made the biggest offer, although that’s strictly reading between the lines in speculative fashion. It’s worth noting, of course, that the Nationals have a tendency to bake deferred money into their contract offers, which weighs down the present-day value of said offers. Plus, with their recent bevy of infield signings, there’s a bit less urgency to add another option to the pile — even if Donaldson is easily the best of the bunch.

Today’s reports on Donaldson at least cast some doubt as to just how close — if at all — he’ll be able to get to his reported $110MM asking price. It’s clear that there are multiple staring contests underway at present, and the revelation that Donaldson’s camp hasn’t asked for final offers doesn’t exactly suggest that a resolution is imminent.

7:00am: Even after a run of free agent additions that plug quite a few holes with veteran players, the Nationals do not appear to be shutting the door on top remaining open market star Josh Donaldson — at least, not entirely. The Nats could still make the third baseman fit, but evidently won’t be the team that ups its bid to land him.

After agreeing to terms with Howie Kendrick, Starlin Castro, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Eric Thames, and with youngster Carter Kieboom waiting in the wings, the Nats could in theory have bailed out of the Donaldson auction altogether. But that assembly of pieces hardly makes up for the departure of Anthony Rendon. And the D.C. organization surely doesn’t wish to allow the division-rival Braves a chance at retaining Donaldson without paying full price (and then some) to do so.

After yesterday’s reported deal with Thames, the Nationals remain “in the picture,” Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (via Twitter). Indeed, the club is “leaving [its] offer on [the] table,” Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports on Twitter. Precisely how that offer matches up to others isn’t known with specificity — reports had suggested the Nats, Braves, and Twins were in the same $100MM ballpark — but it surely helps Donaldson’s cause to keep that avenue open.

Donaldson had been said to be dangling bait to interested teams, indicating he’d sign with the first club to meet an asking price in the vicinity of $110MM. Unless something changes, it seems the Nats won’t take the hook. It remains to be seen whether some other team will. Likewise, unless the defending World Series champs withdraw their bid, the Braves, Twins, and any other pursuers (Dodgers? Rangers? mystery team(s)?) will presumably need to meet or top that number to get a deal done.

There certainly may be some momentum towards a return to Atlanta. The Nationals are at minimum preparing to move forward without Donaldson. The Twins’ hopes are said to be dimming. And it’s largely unclear whether any other team has or will engage Donaldon’s reps in earnest. Numerous observers have cast the Braves as favorites, though as ever it’s inadvisable to view free agent matchmaking as a metaphorical horse race or political contest. Market circumstances can turn on a dime.

Twins Reportedly ‘Pessimistic’ In Donaldson Pursuit

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Recent reports have indicated that Josh Donaldson’s reps have been pushing their asking price toward $110MM over a four-year term, and it now seems as if at least one bidder is preparing to push their chair back from the table. The Twins have grown ’pessimistic’ about their chances of acquiring the veteran third baseman, according to a report from Phil Miller of The Minneapolis Star-Tribune, citing sources close to the negotiations.

It may not be accurate to position this development as the result of Minnesota’s disinclination toward spending at a certain level—rather, Donaldson may simply have another preferred destination in mind, with the Braves and Nationals reported as two other clubs that have made four-year offers. Miller’s sources indicate that Donaldson “has not appeared interested in signing with Minnesota, and the team has begun investigating other options.”

Concerning the Donaldson sweepstakes, specifically, perhaps this news represents the ripple before the big splash. Donaldson has reportedly drawn a line in the sand as to the deal he’s seeking and may currently be taking his pick of offers structured with a similar AAV setup. In addition to the possibly counted-out Twins, the Braves, and the Nationals, front offices in Texas and Chavez Ravine may also be keeping a direct line to agent Dan Lozano.

Like the Dodgers with Justin Turner, the Twins have a proven option at third in Miguel Sano. Their Donaldson pursuit may have always more been about value proposition—Donaldson’s deal promises to be balance sheet-friendly compared to Anthony Rendon, after all—and they may simply have been unwilling to pay top dollar for a relative roster luxury. Still, one gets the sense that the club entered the offseason with ample cap room and a reported intention of securing, at the least, top-shelf acquisitions in the pitching department. The club still looks to be in good shape entering ’20, but their retirement from the Donaldson race would represent one more avenue toward roster improvement rendered closed, for the time being.

Josh Donaldson Reportedly Sets Asking Price

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Weeks of bidding has reportedly driven the price tag for Josh Donaldson into the nine-figure range over a four-year term, with at least three clubs said to be sitting at that lofty price point. The end game may now be upon us.

The star third baseman has given teams what amounts to a firm and final asking price, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Donaldson is “simply waiting for one of the clubs to hit his number” — around $110MM — per the report.

It seems, then, that the Braves, Nationals, Twins, Rangers, Dodgers, and any other lurkers need only place a single phone call to Donaldson’s reps to get the paperwork started. With the first three of those clubs reportedly already close to Donaldson’s asking price, it doesn’t seem like a huge stretch to bridge the gap. On the other hand, it may be that these teams feel they’ve already moved well out of their comfort zone for a 34-year-old player with a not-so-distant injury history, however talented he may be.

We have seen this sort of bidding situation emerge before. Sometimes, the player ends up picking from among multiple, roughly equivalent offers, as reportedly occurred a few years back with Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist. In other cases, a team leaps up to meet the asking price, as then-Blue Jays and now-Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos did to land Russell Martin — a situation he discussed last year.

It’s interesting now to see Anthopoulos weighing another tough call on an older free agent. He has twice acquired Donaldson, first via trade in Toronto and then through free agency in Atlanta, and has twice been rewarded for doing so. But while Anthopoulos made no shortage of big-money strikes during his time with the Jays, he has run quite a tight ship with the Braves. Most teams pressing to win end up going out on a limb at some point or another. No doubt Anthopoulos is presently weighing whether to do so with Donaldson or take on somewhat different risks by seeking an alternative path to the quality bat he wishes to acquire.

The calculus is much the same for the other teams involved. For the Nationals, the luxury tax line is fast approaching after a series of other moves. Adding Donaldson would probably mean going past it, though that seems to be a palatable outcome after dipping under the bar last year and going on to snag a World Series win. The Twins have ample flexibility after piecing together a cost-conscious series of rotation moves. It’s arguable that the Minnesota organization is most in need of a boost and best positioned to take on the long-term financial risks. But there are probably other ways the team could go to improve as well.

It could be that we’re seeing a bit of a staring contest here. Even if every organization knows that it controls its own destiny with regard to Donaldson — meet his ask and he’s yours — they’d each rather get him for less. There are some exceptionally talented alternatives in Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado, but they’ll each require a sacrifice of talent and it’s far from clear how appealing the trade terms will be in both cases. Other possibilities, such as trading for Kyle Seager or signing Todd Frazier, rate as backup plans in comparison to the addition of Donaldson or one of his talent-level peers.

Poll: Grade The Twins’ Rotation Moves

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The Twins’ biggest offseason need was no secret — apart from Jose Berrios, every member of their 2019 starting rotation was scheduled to reach free agency.  With Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, and Kyle Gibson all hitting the open market and Martin Perez also becoming a free agent after the Twins bought out their club option, the AL Central champs were faced with both a predicament and something of an opportunity.

While Minnesota starters collectively ranked in the top third or top half of the league in most major statistical categories in 2019, the rotation was seen as more of a solid complement to the team’s big-hitting lineup than as a strength unto itself.  There was certainly room for not just improvement, but significant improvement to the pitching corps, especially for a Twins club that entered the winter with very few future payroll commitments.  As chief baseball officer Derek Falvey told reporters after the season, the club was intent on adding “impact pitching” to its rotation and was open to spending to add those arms.

As the calendar has turned to the new year, Minnesota has indeed restocked its staff with starters both old and new, though on paper, some of that promised “impact” isn’t obviously present.  The first steps were equal parts promising and cost-effective for the Twins — Odorizzi accepted the team’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer rather than test free agency, and then re-signing Pineda for two years and $20MM.

After those familiar faces returned to the fold, however, the Twins faced some long weeks of rumors and missed targets before eventually landing a pair of veterans.  Homer Bailey and Rich Hill each signed one-year contracts with Minnesota on the same day, with Bailey earning $7MM in guaranteed money and Hill pulling in $3MM guaranteed (with hefty incentives).  Bailey got his career on track with a solid 2019 season following multiple rough years with the Reds, while Hill isn’t going to be able to pitch until midseason due to his recovery from primary revision surgery.

The Twins pursued such names as Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner, Dallas Keuchel, Jordan Lyles, and Japanese hurler Shun Yamaguchi, yet all wound up signing elsewhere.  As for the team’s own remaining free agents, Gibson signed with the Rangers while Perez inked a deal with the Red Sox.  On the trade front, the Marlins’ Elieser Hernandez have been on the radar, though no deal has been completed.  This isn’t to say that Minnesota hasn’t been aggressive, as shown most clearly by their five-year, $100MM offer to Wheeler before the righty instead opted to sign with the Phillies.  But, the free agent pitching market moved much faster (and at higher costs) than expected, leaving the Twins missing out on many of their first-choice options.

Barring any further pickups via trades or free agency, the Twins’ Opening Day rotation now stands as Berrios, Odorizzi, and Bailey, with two of the young trio of Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, and Lewis Thorpe handling the final two slots.  Pineda is unavailable for the first 39 games of the season while he finishes out a 60-game PED suspension, and when he returns, one of Dobnak/Smeltzer/Thorpe will continue to start until Hill is healthy and ready.  Top prospect Brusdar Graterol also looms as an early-season callup after making his MLB debut in 2019.

It isn’t the slam-dunk collection of upgrades many Twin Cities fans were hoping for, yet it’s also wrong to say that this group doesn’t have any talent.  While Hill’s injury status has long been a question mark, he has pitched like an ace when he has been healthy over the last four years.  Berrios might well rise to true ace status himself, if he can avoid another late-season slump and consistently pitch like he did in the first half of the 2019 season.  Odorizzi and Pineda both pitched well for Minnesota last season, and as a fifth starter option, Bailey isn’t a bad veteran arm to have amidst the younger hurlers.

Also, in not spending big now, the Twins are keeping some financial powder dry so they can spend later, potentially on a midseason trade acquisition if necessary.  Then there’s the additional chance that Minnesota could indeed spread some cash around this offseason, though on another major hitter (such as Josh Donaldson) rather than another pitcher.

What’s your take on Minnesota’s rotation moves?  (Poll link for app users.)

Latest On Josh Donaldson

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The Braves could lose third baseman Josh Donaldson in free agency, but they’re not going down without a fight. They’ve made the longtime star a four-year offer, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets. They join the Twins and Nationals as teams known to have made recent four-year proposals for Donaldson. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com said Thursday that all three teams seem willing to go to the four-year, $100MM range. The Dodgers and the Rangers can’t be counted out of the race, either, per Feinsand.

This has become an especially fascinating trip through free agency for Donaldson, who MLBTR predicted would sign a three-year, $75MM contract when the proceedings began. However, with fellow third baseman Anthony Rendon and a slew of other standout performers already off the market, the 34-year-old Donaldson is now easily the game’s premier player without a contract. And he partly controls the third base market, as teams that lose out on the Donaldson sweepstakes might pivot to a trade for the Cubs’ Kris Bryant or the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado with no other studs left in free agency.

In the Braves’ case, they could have the prospect capital to trade for Bryant or Arenado, though it remains to be seen whether they’ll go that route. The seven-year, $234MM Arenado’s still owed could prove too rich for their blood. Donaldson shouldn’t cost anywhere near that much in cash, nor would the Braves have to cough up young players for him, and they already know he can thrive in their uniform. The one-time MVP was an integral member of a 2019 Atlanta roster that took home its second consecutive NL East title.

Twins Have Made 4-Year Offer To Josh Donaldson

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The Twins entered the offseason seeking “impact” starting pitching, but it doesn’t appear they’ll succeed in that quest. They agreed to one-year deals with Rich Hill and Homer Bailey on Tuesday, and with no high-end starters left on the market, their heavy lifting could be done in that area after also retaining Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda.

Although the Twins may be finished picking up notable starters, that doesn’t mean the reigning AL Central champions are content to enter next season without adding at least one more established contributor to the roster. On the contrary, they’re still chasing the premier free agent available, Josh Donaldson, and have made the third baseman a four-year offer, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports (subscription link).

Financial details of the Twins’ proposal are unknown, but it could well be in the neighborhood of $90MM. As of two weeks ago, the Nationals were reportedly willing to go to that range for Donaldson, who has also drawn attention from his previous team, the Braves, as well as the Dodgers, Phillies and Rangers this winter. All of those clubs could still conceivably make a splash at the position.

Considering Donaldson has been an elite-level player for a large portion of the past several seasons, he’d increase any team’s title chances on paper. However, his age (34) could make at least some teams wary of handing him a long-term, big-money accord. The Twins appear unafraid, though.

For Minnesota, signing Donaldson would likely mean soaring past the ~$120MM Opening-Day payroll they posted last season, as Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates the team’s already in that vicinity. But a significant amount of that money’s due to come off the books a year from now with Hill, Bailey, Odorizzi, Nelson Cruz and Marwin Gonzalez among the Twins’ players who are scheduled to become free agents then.

For now, reeling in Donaldson would surely mean shifting third baseman Miguel Sano to first, where the Twins don’t appear to have a clear solution after cutting ties with C.J. Cron, their previous starter. Cron’s now a member of the division-rival Tigers, while the versatile Gonzalez may be the Twins’ leading in-house candidate to man first.

Twins Sign Rich Hill, Homer Bailey

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The Twins have pulled off a fascinating New Year’s Eve double-strike. The club announced that hurlers Rich Hill and Homer Bailey have each agreed to contracts, as Dan Hayes of The Athletic first reported (Twitter link).

Both players secured one-year deals, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Hill is guaranteed $3MM, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets. His contract includes a hefty $9.5MM in total available incentives which can be met by recording only 15 starts and/or 75 innings thrown. Bailey’s contract comes with a $7MM guarantee, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). He also has some incentive pay available, but only if he gets up to 180 innings, Hayes tweets.

There’s a lot to process here. More than anything, it’s a highly notable development for a Twins club that entered the offseason promising to pursue impact arms. Perhaps now the club will turn over its still-stuffed war chest in pursuit of third baseman Josh Donaldson.

We’ve already seen the Twins move to retain Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda, though the latter will open the year on the restricted list while he finishes a suspension for a banned masking agent. Having bid adieu to Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez, the Minnesota org was left with a mix of rather inexperienced rotation candidates such as Devin Smeltzer and Randy Dobnak.

Now, Bailey slots into an immediate rotation spot while Hill joins Pineda as an anticipated mid-season boost. Hill is working back from elbow surgery and likely won’t be available on the MLB mound until the summer. In effect, the organization has pre-purchased a pair of trade deadline rotation pieces. That’ll make it tough to add any other clear-cut starters now or in the summer trade market, unless it becomes clear that the expected timelines can’t be met.

All things considered, it’s quite the value-driven gambit for the Twins, who raced out to an AL Central title last year but face competition for the crown in 2020. The organization made no secret of its desire to land higher-quality starters, but came away without any of the major hurlers that populated the free agent market.

[RELATED: Twins Will Pursue “Impact” Pitching — And They Can Afford It]

There’s much to commend about both Hill and Bailey, but it’d be tough to say that the new duo is a clear upgrade over the outgoing two-some of Gibson and Perez. The Twins obviously prefer the price tag on the two they’ve landed, but there is a reason that other organizations were willing to promise bigger money to Gibson (three years, $30MM) and Perez (one year, $6MM).

The Twins do have some real potential impact in Hill, despite the fact that he’ll celebrate his 40th birthday before throwing a pitch for the organization. The resurgent veteran has thrown limited innings since his reemergence — both by design and due to injuries — but has been awesome when available. Dating back to his late-2015 run with the Red Sox, he carries a 2.91 ERA with 10.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 466 1/3 innings.

Given the unusual incentive structure of Hill’s deal, it’s obvious both that the Twins anticipate a mid-season debut and that they won’t expect him to turn in overly lengthy outings. The master curveballer only flung 58 2/3 frames in his 13 starts last year with the Dodgers, and he can now max out his incentives package if he can extend that just a bit. The organization evidently wasn’t worried by Hill’s recent arrest in an incident he called “overblown.”

If Hill gets back to health and back to his now-typical form, he’ll provide a weapon down the stretch and into a hopeful postseason berth. The addition of Bailey seems intended to address rather a different need — solid innings over the course of the season — though he also comes with a sort of upside of his own.

The 33-year-old Bailey had a nice bounceback showing in 2019, particularly after a mid-season move from the Royals to the Athletics. He finished the campaign with 163 1/3 innings of 4.57 ERA ball, with 8.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. In a season full of explosive offensive performances, those were rather useful frames. Bailey logged 2.9 fWAR and 1.8 rWAR in 2019, the sort of output that would justify his current contract if repeated.

Notably, Bailey showed an uptick in his swinging-strike rate, posting a 10.8% level that he hadn’t touched since his heyday. That’s increasingly easy to accomplish in today’s game but still notable for a pitcher that generally fills up the zone. Bailey’s 93+ mph average fastball was shy of his peak but in line with his post-Tommy John levels. His mid-season strides don’t seem to correspond to any major changes to his approach or pitch quality, so there’s no particular reason to expect a late-career breakout, but his peripherals and Statcast numbers generally support Bailey’s low-4 ERA output.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Remaining Needs: AL Central

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We’re nearly halfway through what has been a vastly more active offseason than we saw in either of the past two winters. We’ve already checked in on what’s left to do for the five clubs in the NL East and the five in the AL West. Let’s turn the focus to the AL Central as we continue moving through the game’s six divisions…

Minnesota Twins [Offseason Outlook]

Baseball’s most-improved team from 2018 to 2019 entered the offseason in need of a rotation upgrade, and nothing has changed on that front. Several months after broadcasting an intent to pursue “impact” pitching, Minnesota’s rotation is led by a familiar trio: Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda. Kyle Gibson has departed for the Rangers. Martin Perez signed with the Red Sox. The Twins’ rotation, at present, is thinner than it was for much of the 2019 season, and the top free agents are all off the board to other teams. The Twins will have to get creative in order to make good on that promise of adding an impact arm — particularly since few look to be clearly available on the trade market.

The other question facing the Twins is whether they’ll succeed in their ongoing pursuit of former AL MVP Josh Donaldson. Third base isn’t a “need” for the Twins, but penciling in Donaldson at the hot corner and shifting Miguel Sano to first base deepens the lineup while simultaneously improving the infield defense. And the Twins still have ample funds to spend, even after signing Odorizzi, Pineda, Sergio Romo, Tyler Clippard and Alex Avila. If they miss out on Donaldson, too, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine could be all the more motivated to line up an impact trade.

Cleveland Indians [Offseason Outlook]

The Indians might already have succeeded in their primary goal, as ownership looks intent on further paring back payroll after spending at club-record level in the wake of 2016’s World Series run. Gone is Corey Kluber, and the fact that Cleveland moved him for what is widely regarded as a light return (rather than hanging onto him and exploring the midseason market) suggests that clearing his salary was a key piece of the deal.

The Indians reallocated a bit of the money earmarked for Kluber when they agreed to terms with Cesar Hernandez to serve as the new second baseman. But it’s been radio silence from the Cleveland front office otherwise, despite the team’s reported desire for an outfield upgrade. (Delino DeShields, acquired in the Kluber deal, does not fit that description.) It’s tough to see the Indians ponying up for one of Nicholas Castellanos or Marcell Ozuna, but they could still try to play for someone like Corey Dickerson or perhaps explore a Yasiel Puig reunion. The trade market may be the likelier path.

One would expect that the main narrative around the Indians would be “how can they return to the top of the division,” but it’s instead on whether they’ll trade anyone else after clearing Kluber’s salary. Francisco Lindor’s name is dominating the rumor mill in recent weeks, and even Mike Clevinger has seen his name pop up. A deal of either player might not be likely but could bring back some MLB-ready talent (while creating another enormous hole to fill). At this point, Cleveland could stand to add an outfielder, a bullpen arm or another starting pitcher, but it’s not clear how much they’re willing to spend to do so.

Chicago White Sox [Offseason Outlook]

Far and away the most active club in the division — if not in all of baseball — the White Sox have overhauled a roster that now includes Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez and Nomar Mazara (all after agreeing to an extension with Jose Abreu). You can debate the extent to which those moves have improved the roster, but there’s no denying that the South Siders will enter 2020 with a markedly better club (especially when considering the looming promotions of center fielder Luis Robert and second baseman Nick Madrigal).

Frankly, the heavy lifting is mostly complete for GM Rick Hahn and his staff — but don’t expect them to just sit back and wait for Opening Day. The Sox could still look to add a low-cost veteran in center or at second to bridge the gap to those aforementioned top prospects (and to serve as insurance, should they sustain an injury or struggle to adapt to the Majors). The team’s bench looks quite thin at the moment as well. In the bullpen, there’s little certainty beyond the top two names (Alex Colome and Aaron Bummer), so it’s only sensible to add a reliever or two to the fray as they look to build a deeper club capable of postseason contention. It’ll be worth keeping an eye out for some Spring Training extensions for younger players as well.

Kansas City Royals [Offseason Outlook]

The Royals have hired a new manager (Mike Matheny) and bought low on some former top prospects (Maikel Franco, Chance Adams). The signing of Franco and acquisition of Adams are both perfectly sensible moves for a rebuilding club to make, and a few more pickups along those lines wouldn’t be a surprise. But the Royals never figured to be aggressive in free agency this winter, as they’re clearly more focused on winning in 2021-22 than they are in 2020. There’s clearly room to add to the rotation or bullpen later in the offseason, should a good value present itself, but the Royals are also hopeful that several of their best pitching prospects will surface in the Majors in 2020.

Given the team’s current long-term approach, it’s surprising that the soon-to-turn-31 Whit Merrifield isn’t more available on the trade market. However, general manager Dayton Moore has steadfastly maintained that he expects Merrifield to be a part of the Royals’ next competitive club and has resisted all offers dating back to last offseason. The Royals locked Merrifield up to a very affordable extension last winter, and the club could conceivably explore long-term arrangements with the likes of Adalberto Mondesi or Jorge Soler this spring.

Detroit Tigers [Offseason Outlook]

Rebuilding or not, the Tigers opted to add some thump to their lineup earlier this month when they signed both C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop to matching one-year deals. Scooping up the Twins’ right-side infield tandem gives the Tigers some lineup depth and a pair of potential trade chips to flip this summer; a few other short-term moves along those lines could very well play out.

The pitching staff, in particular, looks ripe for short-term upgrades (both in the ’pen and in the rotation). A one-year flier on an Alex Wood or Jimmy Nelson type could pay dividends. Last year’s attempts at turning Tyson Ross and Matt Moore into coveted trade pieces didn’t pan out, but those results shouldn’t push the club away from trying what was a sound strategy once again.

The biggest question surrounding the Tigers is whether Matthew Boyd will be with the club to open the season. Boyd is widely known to be available and has drawn interest from plenty of clubs dating back to the July trade deadline. He’s controlled for another three seasons and emerged as one of the game’s premier strikeout pitchers in 2019, though home runs inflated his ERA. Some teams are surely hopeful, though, that if there’s a correction to last season’s juiced ball, Boyd can take another step forward and cement himself as a high-end rotation cog. There’s no urgency to trade him, but the Tigers will continue to explore the market to see if someone will overwhelm them.

Latest On Twins' Pitching Pursuits

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  • The Twins have “kicked the tires on the top remaining starters,” as per SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson (Twitter links), and also looked at several other pitchers who have since signed with other clubs, though “never really pursued any aggressively.”  Minnesota entered the offseason with a severe need for starting pitching, and while the club has brought back Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda, at least one rotation spot must still be addressed.  With so many top arms already off the board, Wolfson feels the Twins might need to swing a trade in order to add any further pitching upgrades.  In another tweet, Wolfson notes that the Twins didn’t have any interest in left-hander Matt Moore, who is off to Japan after signing with the SoftBank Hawks earlier today.

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