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Draft Signings: 6/9/18

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Check out some of the latest draft signings outside of the first round…

  • Fourth-rounder Mike Siani has agreed to terms with the Reds, tweets FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman. The deal will pay Siani $2MM, which comes in over slot value. Siani, notably, is giving up a scholarship offer from the famed University of Virginia to join Cincinnati’s minor league ranks. He’s a catcher coming out of William Penn Charter High School in Pennsylvania; he’s been described by Baseball America as “a plus-plus runner with natural instincts in center field, [and] raw power and bat speed from the left side of the plate.” Indeed, the publication ranked him as the number 53 draft prospect headed in, but clearly he fell due to signability concerns. The Reds, then, will make great use of their fourth-round selection with the addition of Siani.
  • The Rays have officially signed second-round pick Tyler Frank out of Florida Atlantic, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The 185-pound shortstop was generally ranked around number 70 or so in draft rankings by Fangraphs, Baseball America and MLB.com.
  • Darren Wolfson of KSTP reports that the Twins have signed their second- and fourth-round picks. Catcher Ryan Jeffers, taken in round two, was ranked by Baseball America just inside the top 300 draft prospects; they described him as a below-average runner with an average arm behind the plate, though they did note his power as being impressive. Meanwhile, fourth-rounder DaShawn Kiersey Jr. is largely heralded for his contact skills. He came in 82nd in BA’s pre-draft rankings due to that skill. While some scouts worry that a gruesome hip injury suffered last year will cause him to decline faster, his “solid package of tools” give him great upside in MLB. With the above info in mind, perhaps it’s not entirely surprising that Jeffers signed for below slot value, while Kiersey Jr.’s deal exceeded his slot value (per Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press).

Twins Had Offseason Interest In Miles Mikolas

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  • Along with the previously reported Rangers, the Twins and Padres were among teams with offseason interest in right-hander Miles Mikolas, per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Mikolas, who pitched in Japan from 2015-17, ended up signing a two-year, $15.5MM deal with the Cardinals. The 29-year-old is no stranger to the Padres, who selected him in the seventh round of the 2009 draft and then had him on their roster for parts of the 2012 and ’13 seasons. Mikolas was unheralded in San Diego, but he has turned into one of the NL’s most effective starters during his stint in St. Louis. Across 79 1/3 innings this season, Mikolas has notched a 2.27 ERA with 6.58 K/9, 1.02 BB/9 and a 50.2 percent groundball rate.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Eduardo Escobar

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Eduardo Escobar wasn’t supposed to get this much playing time in 2018. Heading into the season, he was set to be a utility player extraordinaire, backing up Twins shortstop Jorge Polanco, third baseman Miguel Sano and second baseman Brian Dozier — perhaps with an occasional day at DH or a brief foray into an outfield corner. But an 80-game suspension for Polanco following a failed PED test and an early injury for Sano thrust Escobar into the lineup with regularity. And more surprisingly, Escobar’s sensational performance has thrust him into the cleanup spot for the Twins more often than not.

Eduardo Escobar | Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

There are undoubtedly readers out there who literally don’t know who Escobar is. He’s long been a quality utility piece for the Twins, but he’s taken his offensive game to new heights over the past two seasons. Now, four months away from free agency, he looks potentially poised for a payday that would’ve sounded unthinkable for him entering the 2017 season.

Escobar, 29, is off to a ridiculous .286/.340/.562 start to the 2018 season (143 OPS+, 139 wRC+). The switch-hitter already belted a dozen home runs and racked up an incredible 24 doubles through his first 238 trips to the plate. It’s an excellent followup to last year’s career-high 21 homers, and he’s already just nine long balls and 11 doubles shy of his career-bests with about 60 percent of the season still to play.

While it’s not always obvious to see the areas from which a player’s offensive breakout stems, Escobar has made some very noticeable changes to his approach at the plate. He looks to be one of the many success stories from 2017’s “fly-ball revolution,” having increased his launch angle from 15 degrees in 2016 to 17.5 degrees in 2017 to 20.8 degrees in 2018. Back in 2016, Escobar was putting the ball on the ground nearly 40 percent of the time he made contact. But his fly-ball rate jumped from 37.4 percent in 2016 to 45.3 percent last season. This year, it’s sitting at a career-high 47.9 percent. His average exit velocity of 87.6 mph isn’t elite, but it’s steadily risen by about 1 mph in each of the past two seasons.

That seems like a deliberate focus on putting the ball in the air and hitting for more power, and it’s somewhat predictably come with some other, more negative changes. Escobar has traded some contact for his newfound power, striking out at a career-worst 22.7 percent so far in 2018. He’s chasing a whopping 40.4 percent out-of-zone pitches, and his swinging-strike rate is a career-worst 12.7 percent as well. That said, his strikeout rate is far from egregious, and he’s also sporting career-bests in hard-contact rate, line-drive rate and barreled-ball rate. His .327 average on balls in play is a bit north of his career .299 mark, but that can be somewhat explained by his increase in barreled balls and quality contact. In short, he looks like a legitimately improved hitter.

Defensively, Escobar is more of a mixed bag. He has extensive experience at both positions on the left side of the infield in addition to 348 innings at second base and 275 innings in the outfield (eight in center and 267 in left field). That’s desirable versatility, but he’s not exactly a standout defender anywhere. Third base has been his best position in the Majors, and by measure of both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved, he’s a serviceable defender at the hot corner. DRS pegs him at -5 runs 1735 innings, while UZR/150 has him at -0.4. His ratings at shortstop, particularly in 2018, are far less appealing (-8 DRS in 168 innings, -2.1 UZR), but he’d graded out passably (even favorably, per UZR) at the position in prior seasons.

At the very least, a team would likely feel comfortable installing Escobar at shortstop once or twice per week, knowing he could be re-positioned elsewhere in a late defensive switch by a superior defender. And it stands to reason that most clubs would feel comfortable with his glove at third base.

The question for Escobar in free agency, of course, will be one of how exactly he’ll be valued by other clubs. Escobar isn’t going to sustain a .276 isolated power mark (that is, slugging percentage minus batting average). By his own admission, many of his doubles are of the “hustle” variety (such as this one), and his 15.2 percent homer-to-flyball ratio is well above his career norm. Still, at least much of the gains he’s made in the power department seem legitimate. He’s also sporting a modest increase in walk rate (career-high 7.6 percent) to go along with his improved contact and defensive versatility. Some teams figure to value him in as a high-end utility player, while others yet may feel he’s capable of shouldering an everyday workload.

Looking for recent comparables, there aren’t many examples of bat-first utility players that stack up nicely with Escobar’s case. Ben Zobrist’s four-year, $56MM contract was signed when Zobrist had a considerably lengthier track record and seems too ambitious a comparison for Escobar. On the other hand, former teammate Eduardo Nunez’s modest deal to return to the Red Sox this year feels like it can be similarly dismissed, given Nunez’s late knee injury and lack of power. Luis Valbuena’s two-year, $15MM contract feels too low, given Escobar’s ability to play some shortstop, his switch-hitting capability and his superior offensive output. Jed Lowrie’s three-year, $23MM deal with the A’s may even be light. That contract began when Lowrie was 32 years of age and came on the heels of a season in which he played in just 69 games. Escobar will turn 30 next January.

Perhaps, then, Escobar will forge his own path, to an extent. He’s experiencing an offensive breakout similar to the one that Zack Cozart exhibited in his two years leading up to a three-year, $38MM deal from the Angels, though Cozart was considered a premium defensive shortstop who could provide significant defensive value at third base as well. Then again, he hadn’t been as healthy as Escobar and was two years older. That could serve as something of a ceiling for Escobar, and perhaps a four-year deal at a lower annual rate (something in the vein of Omar Infante’s admittedly dated four-year, $30.25MM deal with Kansas City) shouldn’t be entirely ruled out, given Escobar’s relative youth.

All of this, of course, is predicated on Escobar sustaining a pace that at least approximates his current output. That’s far from a given, especially considering the fact that Polanco’s eventual return will cut into his playing time to some degree. But heading into the 2018 season, the general thought was that if there was one switch-hitting utility player poised for a significant payday, it’d be Houston’s Marwin Gonzalez. With Gonzalez struggling and Escobar thriving, that reality looks to have shifted. There are under-the-radar free agents who emerge from relative anonymity every season, and Escobar is making his case to become the latest such example with a strong start to the year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Twins Notes: Santana, Rupp

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  • There’s good news for Twins starter Ervin Santana, as conveyed by Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press on Twitter. After putting a hold on his rehab assignment a week ago, Santana is now just about ready to begin throwing again and may do so as soon as tomorrow. The solid veteran hurler will still need to complete a full ramp-up before he returns to the majors, but it seems promising that his earlier setback has only required a brief respite.
  • New Twins backstop Cameron Rupp has an opt-out opportunity on July 15th, per Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (via Twitter). That will give the team some time to assess its situation at the MLB level, and to get familiar with Rupp, before deciding whether to promote him. At the same time, it allows the backstop a chance to find a new opportunity before the trade deadline, if he doesn’t come up with the Twins.

Twins Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Trevor Larnach

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The Twins have already agreed to a signing bonus with first-round draft pick Trevor Larnach, scouting director Sean Johnson said after last night’s selections were turned in. MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger was among those to tweet the news.

The precise number still isn’t known, and may not be until the sides get around to putting pen to paper — which certainly could still take a while. The 20th overall slot comes with a $3.12MM allocation.

It’s not uncommon at all for teams and potential draftees to reach at least a fairly advanced understanding on bonus values on draft night. That doesn’t mean that  signings are announced right away, though on occasion deals are processed rather quickly. In this case, the Twins’ acknowledgement of the agreement on a number suggests that there will be little trouble in formally striking a contract.

Larnach, an outfielder out of Oregon State, certainly seems prepared to take a modern approach to baseball, as Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press writes. Noted for his lofty exit velocity as a collegian, Larnach says he’s “well aware” of the latest means of measuring the game. He also suggested that he’ll be a grinder as a pro, saying that he has “been working my tail off ever since high school” and is “not done yet.”

Entering the draft, Larnach drew a range of grades. The Fangraphs duo of Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel put down the highest grade, rating him the 12th-best player available on the basis of his physical prowess and that above-noted exit velo. ESPN.com’s Keith Law (subscription link) placed Larnach 49th, acknowledging the ceiling but questioning whether he had established a strong enough hit tool for a first-round grade.

The bat, clearly, is the draw. All involved acknowledge that Larnach is limited at best in the field and on the bases. Given his status as an advanced college hitter with some power upside, the FG prospect team says that the Twins’ new outfielder “checks every box for the risk-averse, analytics-driven clubs.”

Twins To Sign Cameron Rupp

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The Twins have reached agreement on a minor-league deal with catcher Cameron Rupp, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (via Twitter). It seems he is already in Rochester readying to begin play with the organization.

Rupp, 29, will boost the Minnesota catching depth with Jason Castro expected to miss the rest of the year. Presently, the organization is utilizing Mitch Garver and Bobby Wilson behind the dish at the major-league level.

Though he has yet to see time in the big leagues this year, Rupp was a fixture behind the dish over the past three seasons for the Phillies. In 1,049 plate appearances over that span, he slashed .236/.301/.417 and swatted 39 home runs.

Still, Philadelphia cut Rupp loose late in Spring Training after agreeing initially agreeing to avoid arbitration. The receiver caught on with the Rangers organization shortly thereafter. He is off to a nice start with the bat this year, posting a .264/.328/.509 batting line over 125 Triple-A plate appearances before opting out of his contract recently.

Padres' GM Discusses Phil Hughes Swap

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The Padres’ acquisition of Phil Hughes was clearly more about acquiring the Twins’ competitive balance draft pick than the pitcher himself, and GM A.J. Preller and scouting director Mark Conner spoke to MLB.com’s A.J Cassavell about the swap. Preller told Cassavell that he’s been calling every team that received pick in the competitive balance lottery on a near-weekly basis in an attempt to acquire an additional selection — something that’s long been a priority but was magnified in 2018 after San Diego surrendered a pick to sign Eric Hosmer. “The game now is about making your money work for you,” said Preller. “…You have to figure out what’s the best bang for your buck. Having the extra pick gives you more options.”

The move was met by excitement from Conner and his scouts, who’ll now not only have an extra pick (No. 74 overall) but an additional $812,200 in their draft pool. The Padres, of course, spent considerably more than that to obtain the pick, relieving the Twins of just over $7.6MM of Hughes’ salary. While it seems a shrewd (albeit expensive) pickup of a resource with limited availability, not every organization agrees; one exec from another club told FanRag’s Jon Heyman last week that the Padres were “insane” for taking on that much of the remaining contract to obtain the pick.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Brian Dozier

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Twins star Brian Dozier entered 2018 off an extraordinary three-year stretch of power hitting for a second baseman. Dozier combined for 104 home runs during that 2,100-plate appearance span, including 42 in 2016 – an American League record at his position. Although Dozier became a household name because of his ability to hit the ball over the fence, he has been a well-rounded player since his first full season (2013), evidenced by the 22.2 rWAR/21.7 fWAR he racked up between then and this year.

Dozier’s recent excellence has come under the team-friendly extension he signed as a less established player heading into the 2015 season. That contract – a four-year, $20MM pact – has been one of the biggest bargains in baseball lately, but unfortunately for the Twins, it’s on the cusp of expiring. Dozier is now two-plus months into the last year of his deal, and indications are that he’ll test the open market after the season. The 31-year-old made it clear over the winter that he was interested in an extension – “I’ve said I wanted to stay here since forever, but I’ve really vocalized it the last couple years,” he declared – but the Twins didn’t reciprocate and talks on a new deal died.

Because he hasn’t been able to secure another long-term accord from the Twins, Dozier is now trying to prove to them and other teams that he’ll be worth a significant investment in the coming months. But unfortunately for Dozier, his platform year hasn’t begun in ideal fashion. With a .241/.313/.420 batting line in 249 PAs, Dozier’s offensive production has been 3 percent below average, per FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. He was an above-average hitter in each of the previous four seasons, including when he recorded his two highest wRC+ figures – 131 and 125 – in 2016 and ’17.

Encouragingly, Dozier’s walking at a 9.2 percent clip (in line with a career 9.4 mean) and striking out less than he did in previous years. He has fanned 18.1 percent of the time, which is both better than the ever-increasing league rate (22.4 percent) and his career mark (19.4). Dozier’s also chasing less than ever, having registered a 22.6 percent out-of-zone swing rate that easily outdoes his lifetime figure (27.8).

Dozier’s offensive game clearly isn’t devoid of positive signs, then, though there has been cause for alarm when he has put the bat on the ball. He has only hit eight homers thus far, to go with an ISO (.179) that has declined substantially from the .238 mark he combined for from 2015-17. Further, Dozier’s line drive percentage is at a personal-worst 14.4 – compared to 19.9 during his career – and after averaging a 94.4 mph exit velocity on liners last season, Dozier’s at 91.4 this year. Thanks in part to that, not to mention an increase in grounders, Dozier’s percentage of balls hit at least 95 mph has fallen from 34.5 percent in 2017 to 28.1 this season. Dozier currently ranks toward the bottom of the majors in those Statcast metrics (via Baseball Savant), making it no surprise that he has only registered a .303 xwOBA and a .267 batting average on balls in play to this point. While Dozier’s BABIP is close to his career total (.276), it’s a far cry from the personal high (.300) he put up in that department last year.

When Dozier’s contact has eluded defenders this year, he hasn’t been nearly the threat on the base paths that he was in previous seasons. Dozier collected anywhere from 12 to 21 steals in each year from 2013-17, and he entered the campaign with a career success rate near 76 percent. But Dozier has only converted on two of four attempts in 2018, perhaps in part because he’s not as fleet of foot as he had been. Dozier’s average sprint speed is 26.8 feet per second, per Statcast, placing him just below the league mean (27) and down from the slightly above-average marks he managed in each of the three prior seasons.

Dozier’s production at the plate and on the bases does warrant some concern, but his defensive numbers look normal so far. Dozier had essentially been a scratch defender from 2012-17, according to both Defensive Runs Saved (three) and Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-0.3), and that has also been the case in 2018 (two DRS, minus-1.5 UZR). And Dozier’s impressive durability has once again been on display, as he hasn’t missed any of the Twins’ 54 games after amassing between 147 and 157 appearances in each of the previous five seasons.

Dozier’s outstanding track record of availability will undoubtedly appeal to teams as he seeks another payday in the coming months, though he won’t max out his earning potential at his current offensive pace. There’s time for Dozier to turn it around at the plate, of course, and it’s especially important for him to do so given the competition he could face on the market. As things stand, there will be no shortage of veteran second basemen available in free agency, including DJ LeMahieu, Daniel Murphy and Asdrubal Cabrera. Thanks to that fact – not to mention Dozier’s age, the unkind way free agency has been trending for 30-somethings and the potential of a qualifying offer hanging over his head – his first trip to the market may come at an inopportune time.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Twins Put Buxton Back On DL With Fractured Toe, Halt Santana’s Rehab Program

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The Twins delivered some unfortunate injury news to reporters today, revealing that center fielder Byron Buxton is headed back to the disabled list due to his fractured big toe and that Ervin Santana’s rehab assignment has been halted due to ongoing discomfort in his surgically repaired finger (Twitter links via Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com and Dan Hayes of The Athletic). Buxton will have his toe re-examined, while Santana will be examined by a specialist.

It’s been a dismal season for Buxton, who landed on the DL in mid-April for what the club hoped would be a minimal stay due to ongoing migraine issues. Instead, Buxton fouled a ball into his foot on his rehab assignment and sustained a fractured toe which has plagued him since.

Though a six-week timetable for the foot to heal completely was provided, the Twins made the surprising decision to activate Buxton from that DL trip without sending him on a minor league rehab assignment. 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson tweets that today’s decision to place Buxton back on the DL stems from the fact that he’s simply been in too much pain to use his lower half at the plate.

Overall, Buxton has turned in a brutal .159/.187/.205 slash this season, and he’s gone just 6-for-47 since coming off the disabled list and trying to play through the fractured toe. That, obviously, is a far cry from what looked to be a breakout year for Buxton in 2017, when he batted .253/.314/.413 with 16 homers and 29 steals while winning Gold Glove and Platinum Glove honors for his work in the outfield.

[Related: Updated Minnesota Twins depth chart]

With Buxton on the shelf, the Twins will have a number of options to handle center field duties. Ryan LaMarre is currently on the big league roster and can see some time at the position, though both of the Twins’ primary corner outfielders, Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler, are also capable of playing center field.

The news on Santana is equally if not more disheartening for a Twins club that had hoped to get its primary rotation anchor back in the near future. The 35-year-old Santana underwent surgery on his middle finger in February and had been hopeful of returning at some point in May or in early June, but it seems he’ll now need a new wave of testing and could see his season debut delayed quite a bit further.

Since signing with the Twins on a four-year, $55MM deal, Santana has turned in 500 2/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. He was especially effective in 2016-17, logging a 3.32 ERA with 7.2 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 (though fielding-independent metrics indicated that he had a fair bit of good fortune on his side over that span). With Santana now sidelined indefinitely, the Twins will continue to lean on Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and impressive rookie Fernando Romero in the rotation for the time being.

Twins Trade Myles Jaye To Indians

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  • The Indians announced that they’ve acquired right-hander Myles Jaye from the Twins in exchange for cash. He’ll join the rotation for Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate in Columbus, per the announcement. The 26-year-old Jaye made his MLB debut with the Tigers last season but was rocked for 17 earned runs on 18 hits and 10 walks in 12 2/3 innings at the MLB level. Jaye, a former 17th-round pick (Blue Jays, 2010), has a solid track record of preventing runs at the Triple-A level (3.81 ERA, 141 2/3 innings). He’s off to a decent start in Triple-A this year, having pitched to a 4.25 ERA in 42 1/3 frames — albeit with a middling 19-to-15 K/BB ratio in that time. With Adam Plutko and Shane Bieber emerging as rotation options at the MLB level, the addition of Jaye will give the Cleveland organization some additional depth.

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