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Arbitration Eligibles: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Burton, signed to a minor league deal last November, was a bright spot this year for the Twins.  He picked up 18 holds and five saves and will be a key member of next year's bullpen.  Unless the MLBPA's projected Super Two cutoff of two years and 139 days proves high, reliever Alex Burnett will fall a few days short and can be renewed at the minimum salary.  Otherwise, we estimate an $800K salary.

The remaining three arbitration eligible Twins should be considered non-tender candidates.  Duensing probably has the best shot at sticking around, even if he's better off relieving (3.47 ERA) than starting (6.92 ERA).  Casilla played his way out of the Twins' starting second base job and may be cut loose.  As a third catcher with no offensive skills, Butera's time on a 40-man roster will be up soon. 

Assuming Burton and Duensing are tendered contracts, the Twins would be looking at an estimated $3.4MM for two arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.  For more on the Twins' offseason outlook, read Ben Nicholson-Smith's recent article.

Central Notes: Myers, Soriano, Ryan, Morgan, Cubs

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Earlier today, we looked at the latest on the White Sox courtesy of Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.  The club will decline options on Jake Peavy and Kevin Youkilis, but Kenny Williams will still work to retain both veterans.  Speaking of Williams, he will soon be promoted from General Manager to team president with Rick Hahn assuming his former title.  Here's more out of the Central divisions..

  • Williams says that reliever Brett Myers could start for the White Sox in 2013, writes Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com.  The White Sox hold a $10MM option on Myers for next season that they can buy out for $3MM.
  • Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano told reporters that he is open to being traded in the offseason, according to the Associated Press.  Soriano hopes to have one more shot at making a trip to the World Series before his career is through.  The 36-year-old went on to say that he is open to retiring after the two remaining years on his contract are up.
  • Twins manager Rod Gardenhire suggested to Jim Bowden of SiriusXM (via Twitter) that the club will probably have a press conference tomorrow to remove the interim tag from General Manager Terry Ryan's title.
  • Brewers outfielder and former ACES client Nyjer Morgan says that he is now represented by agent Rex Gary, tweets Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com.  The outfielder is set to be a free agent for the first time following the 2014 campaign.
  • The Cubs dismissed third base coach Pat Listach tonight, tweets Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com.  The decision was made by the club and manager Dale Sveum said that he would recommend him for any other coaching job (Twitter link).

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins' pitching staff needs lots of work heading into the 2012-13 offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts 

Arbitration Eligible Players

Contract Options

Free Agents

The Twins have the highest ERA among teams that don't call Coors Field home, which makes it relatively simple to anticipate the team's offseason priorities. Unless Terry Ryan acquires pitching depth, the Twins will enter the 2013 season as a likely 90-loss team.

Joe Mauer - Twins (PW)

Few teams have as many rotation questions as the Twins, whose starting staff has been largely disappointing with the exception of Rule 5 selection Scott Diamond. Nick Blackburn was removed from the 40-man roster after 19 ugly starts, and Liam Hendriks, P.J. Walters, Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing and Esmerling Vasquez weren't much better, posting ERAs above 5.00. Help isn't necessarily on the way, either. The Twins' top pitching prospects are two to three years away in the estimation of the organization's minor league director, Jim Rantz.

Ryan must explore the trade market for starters, though prices will no doubt be inflated at a time that many teams are looking to improve their rotations. Free agency is an alternative for the Twins, who will need to acquire multiple starters if they hope to make significant improvements in 2013. It seems unlikely that Jake Peavy or Hiroki Kuroda would sign with Minnesota, but Joe Blanton, Brandon McCarthy or Shaun Marcum could be available on relatively short-term contracts. 

Any team with as much uncertainty as the Twins would also do well to sign pitchers to minor league deals in the hopes of finding a low-risk success. It's generally easier for teams with open rotation spots to convince intriguing starters to sign minor league deals, and this is an advantage the Twins would do well to maximize.

Though the Twins need pitching, they shouldn't overpay for it. I believe they should decline their club options for Scott Baker and Matt Capps. The cost of the options wouldn't be justified given the questions surrounding the pair of right-handers. Baker missed the entire 2012 season to undergo elbow surgery, so $9.25MM seems excessive. Perhaps the sides can work out an incentive-based deal with a lower guarantee, instead. Capps missed two months with rotator cuff irritation before returning to action last week. Even if he'd been healthy for the entire season, it wouldn't be advisable for the Twins to allocate $6MM — approximately 6% of their payroll — to a middle reliever who's effective but certainly not dominant.

There's value in having strong middle relievers, though, and it's an area the Twins should look to fortify this offseason. Ryan signed Jared Burton and Casey Fien to low-risk deals last offseason and if the GM can replicate that kind of success in 2012-13, his team will be one step closer to respectability.

Carl Pavano, who missed the final four months of the season with a shoulder strain, is the team's lone free agent. If the 36-year-old re-signs with the Twins it'd presumably be for a low base salary. Anything more than that would be excessively risky considering his injury and how hittable Pavano was before going on the disabled list.

Now that Drew Butera and Alexi Casilla are arbitration eligible, they're no longer bargains. Both project as backups with the Twins and should be considered non-tender candidates. Otherwise, the Twins' class of arbitration eligible players should be relatively straightforward. It doesn't include exceptionally large salaries or obvious extension candidates in my view.

The Twins could use more offense from their middle infielders. Only the Tigers and Orioles obtained a lower OPS from their second basemen this year. Only the Mariners obtained a lower OPS from their shortstops. Unfortunately for the Twins, this year's class of free agent middle infielders looks thin. If they don't pursue outside help, they can rely on Jamey Carroll, who recovered from a slow start to post a .343 on-base percentage in 2012, and rookie shortstop Pedro Florimon. Perhaps Stephen Drew, Jeff Keppinger and Kelly Johnson will get calls from Ryan this offseason. The Twins could also explore a trade market that might include names such as Yunel Escobar and Mike Aviles. 

Denard Span and Josh Willingham reportedly drew trade interest at this summer's trade deadline. If the Twins engage other teams in trade talks over the winter, Span and Willingham figure to draw interest once again. Both are productive players signed to team friendly contracts, so it'll make sense for the Twins to maintain the stance they adopted in July: 'we'd have to be overwhelmed to part with these players.' Still, the Twins are relatively deep in the outfield, and trading an established player such as Span might enable them to add a legitimate starter to the rotation. 

For the Twins to have a successful offseason, they must improve their pitching staff. They don't have to sign big-name starters, but they do need to begin the 2013 season with more viable rotation options than they have presently.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Teams With Protected First Round Picks

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Playoff races rightfully get most of the attention this time of year, but there’s intrigue at the bottom of the standings, too. Seven teams have clinched protected first round picks in the 2013 amateur draft with three days remaining in the regular season. The Astros, Cubs, Rockies, Twins, Marlins, Indians and Red Sox will have top ten selections in next year’s draft even if they win the remainder of their games. 

These teams can sign elite free agents this offseason (players who turned down qualifying offers from their former clubs) and retain their first round selections. Instead, these teams would surrender second round selections.

As MLBTR detailed last week, the nine teams with the worst records in baseball will have protected first round selections in 2013. The Pirates will also have a protected first round pick, since they did not sign their top 2012 selection, Mark Appel.

The Blue Jays and Royals are currently positioned to obtain the remaining two protected 2013 picks. The Mariners and Mets could pass the Blue Jays or Royals depending on the results of the season's final series.

AL Notes: Trout, Ventura, Peavy, Twins, Playoffs

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Rookie outfielder Mike Trout hit his 30th home run in the opener of the Angels-Rangers doubleheader this afternoon to become the youngest player in MLB history to slug 30 homers and steal 30 bases and the first rookie with a season of 30 homers and 40 steals. Trout is also the first player in MLB history to record 30 home runs, 45 steals, and 125 runs scored in a single season (h/t ESPN, via Twitter). Trout swiped his 48th base in that game and is now just two stolen bases away from joining Barry Bonds and Eric Davis as the only 30/50 players in baseball history. Today's historic performance further fuels the AL MVP debate between Trout and Miguel Cabrera, a debate chronicled by Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. Elsewhere on the Junior Circuit:

  • White Sox manager Robin Ventura had to clarify comments he made about his future yesterday, reports CSNChicago.com's Dan Hayes. Ventura said he was only making a joke when he said he just wanted to get through this season. "I plan on being here for two more years, yes,” Ventura said. “Unless they don’t want me to be here.”
  • If the White Sox opt for the $4MM buyout of Jake Peavy's contract rather than exercise the $22MM 2013 option, the right-hander may act as his own agent, reports Toni Ginnetti of the Chicago Sun-Times. Barry Axelrod, Peavy's longtime agent, is no longer able to represent him because Axelrod will be taking a position in the Diamondbacks' front office. For his part, Peavy says he wants to remain with the White Sox, "I love Chicago and this team. I hope we'll be able to work something out."
  • The Twins will have to work something out with pitcher Scott Baker, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery. The club has a $9.25MM team option for 2013 and it seems highly unlikely they'd exercise that and make Baker the team's highest-paid pitcher coming off surgery, writes 1500ESPN.com Phil Mackey. GM Terry Ryan wouldn't say much about Baker's status other than, "If you think he's going to be able to contribute in 2013, the answer is yes (we do have interest)."
  • Twins manager Ron Gardenhire has a feeling some of his coaching staff won't be back after the team's second consecutive 90-loss season, according to MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger and Jordan Garretson. "I have all the faith that they can do the job, but some of these things aren't going to be left up to me, it's going to be left to ownership and [general manager] Terry [Ryan]," Gardenhire said. "If he thinks change is needed, he's going to talk to the owners and we'll go from there."
  • Within the same piece, Bollinger and Garretson confirmed Gardenhire hadn't spoken to Joe Mauer about moving to third base. Gardenhire said he has considered playing Mauer some at third when asked about the possibility during a conference call with season-ticket holders on Thursday.
  • The Blue Jays' Darren Oliver is undecided if he will continue playing in 2013, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. Oliver says the main deciding factor will be "my two kids and my wife." The Blue Jays hold a $3MM club option on the left-hander, who has posted a 1.78 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and 2.3 BB/9 in 60 relief appearances this year covering nearly 56 innings. 
  • The Rays ultimately may be known more for not providing enough support to take advantage of one of the best overall pitching performances in recent times; but, there has been a lot accomplished, writes Tampa Bay Times' Marc Topkin who recounts the good, bad and interesting. 
  • Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com has obtained an assessment of the Red Sox’s top 20 prospects by pro scouts for another big-league team. The young talent will be needed as Boston lost 90 games for the first time since 1966 after being swept by the Orioles today.
  • The Yankees, Rangers and Orioles each clinched a playoff spot on Sunday evening thanks to a Mike Napoli-led Texas victory over the Angels. All three teams remain in the hunt for division titles, but three more regular season games must be played this week before final seeding can be determined. For the Orioles, the return to the playoffs comes after a lengthy absence as Baltimore's last postseason appearance came in 1997.

Daniel Seco contributed to this post.

Twins Release Tsuyoshi Nishioka

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The Twins announced that they have unconditionally released Tsuyoshi Nishioka at the infielder's request. Nishioka had been under contract for 2013, but he will relieve the Twins of the $3.25MM remaining on his contract. Nishioka thanked his fans and the Twins in a statement released by the team.

"I take full responsibility for my performance which was below my own expectations," Nishioka said. "At this time, I have made the decision that it is time to part ways. I have no regrets and know that only through struggle can a person grow stronger."

Nishioka signed a three-year, $9MM contract with the Twins before the 2011 season. The Twins are no longer responsible for his $3MM salary in 2013 or for the $250K buyout on his 2014 contract option.

Nishioka, 28, appeared in 68 games with the Twins last year but missed considerable time with a broken leg suffered early in the season. He has spent most of the 2012 season at Triple-A, where he posted a .258/.315/.324 batting line in 431 plate appearances.

It's rare for an MLB player to pass up guaranteed money. Royals starter Gil Meche walked away from $12MM before the 2011 season.

AL Central Links: Leyland, Willingham, Choo

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The White Sox may be in first place in the AL Central but they're apparently going to be making some front office changes this winter.  Here are some more items from around the division….

  • Jim Leyland remains the right person to manage the Tigers, even though the team trails the White Sox in the AL Central, Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press writes. Leyland has questionable job security with two weeks remaining in the regular season.
  • The Twins have a number of offseason needs but manager Ron Gardenhire told reporters (including MLB.com's Zack Meisel) that starting pitching is his team's top priority.
  • Josh Willingham recently said he'd be open to an extension with the Twins, a prospect that Seth Stohs of the Minneapolis Star Tribune thinks the club should wait to explore until after the 2013 season.  Willingham is finishing the first season of a three-year, $21MM contract and I'd agree that Minnesota should be in no rush to extend an outfielder who will be 35 years old when his current deal expires.
  • Shin-Soo Choo's trade value and his worth on the free agent market after 2013 will be limited by his inability to hit left-handed pitching, writes Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  Choo, a left-handed hitter, has just a .556 OPS against southpaws this season and a .246/.334/.353 line against lefties for his career.
  • MLB.com's Jordan Bastian looks at the Indians' pitching struggles this season how the Tribe will try to fix the problem this winter.  Pitching upgrades are likelier to come through trades than by spending on free agents, as Bastian asks, "What team should spend big after a 90-plus loss season? The time has come again to shift the focus back to building a better foundation. The current core is not breeding confidence, especially on the mound."

MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith contributed to this post

Central Links: Berkman, Reds, Span, Twins

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Some links pertaining to baseball's two central divisions, as the White Sox and Tigers square off in the first game of a pivotal four-game series…

The Best Waiver Claims Of The Past Year

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Earlier today, it was reported that Will Rhymes cleared waivers and will remain in the Rays organization. It's not uncommon on MLBTR to see lists of players who have cleared waivers en route to Triple-A, where they'll wait for another crack at the Major Leagues. Teams are constantly shuffling their 40-man rosters, and while oftentimes waiver claims don't produce much value, there are occasions in which teams strike gold.

MLBTR's Transaction Tracker shows 92 waiver claims dating back to one year ago today. A handful of these reclamation projects have yielded legitimate Major League value, and it's possible that several more will when it's all said and done. Here's a look at some of the best so far, according to FanGraphs' WAR:

  • Darin Mastroianni, OF, Twins (Terry Ryan) – Claimed from the Blue Jays on February 9 this year, Mastroianni didn't debut until May 10. The 26-year-old arrived in Minneapolis with just one Major League game and three plate appearances to his credit, but he's turned in a .266/.338/.378 batting line with three homers, 17 steals (in 19 attempts) and elite defense at each outfield position. The end result is 1.6 wins above replacement in 163 plate appearances and a strong fourth outfielder who the Twins can control for the next five seasons.
  • Justin Maxwell, OF, Astros (Jeff Luhnow) — Maxwell was claimed on waivers from the Yankees by Houston's new GM on April 8. Maxwell isn't getting on base much, but he's hitting for plenty of power, as evidenced by his .221 ISO and .230/.303/.451 batting line. He's also played solid defense, as he has throughout his career in limited playing time. The Astros can control Maxwell, who's been worth 1.5 wins above replacement, through 2016 if he continues to put up useful numbers.
  • Travis Blackley, LHP, Athletics (Billy Beane) — Beane snatched the Australian southpaw off waivers from his Bay Area neighbors (Giants) on May 15. He's since fired 90 innings in 19 games (12 starts) for the surging A's, totaling a 3.50 ERA, 6.1 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. Blackley has been worth 1.4 wins above replacement for an Oakland team that currently holds a 1.5 game lead in the Wild Card race.

An honorable mention should go to Lucas Harrell, who falls just outside the "one year" criteria I used for this post but has totaled 2.6 WAR for the Astros in 165 1/3 innings of work this season. Harrell was claimed from the White Sox last July and figures to have earned himself a spot in Houston's 2013 rotation with his solid performance in 2012.

It's common to see skeptical reactions from fans following waiver claims of relative unknowns, but these claims can often yield affordable long-term role players or surprising lifts that can push a team into contention.

Stark On Clemens, Dodgers, Red Sox, Mauer

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In his latest column, ESPN.com's Jayson Stark writes that Astros players have told their friends on other teams that they already think Roger Clemens' arrival in Houston is a done deal.  An old friend of Clemens himself also told Stark that he is convinced The Rocket is gearing up for a big league comeback.  Here's more from Stark..

  • The Dodgers have $181.3MM committed to 17 players for next season, putting them at $3.3MM over the $178MM tax threshold. However, team president Stan Kasten says that he isn't terribly concerned about it.  "I don't know. It's not something we've focused on yet," he said. "To us, that's a secondary issue. First, we want to put the best team on the field now and worry about other things later. We're not focusing on that yet."  In the long term, Dodgers' brass wants to lean heavily on scouting and player development with a payroll close to what other teams in "similar markets" have, according to Kasten.
  • The Red Sox are giving agents and other teams the vibe that they aren't in a rush to spend just because of their new found payroll space.  People who have talked with Boston predict that they're more likely to make creative moves this offseason rather than eat an undesirable contract like that of a Joe Mauer or Cliff Lee.
  • Speaking of Mauer one exec that checked in on him says trade talk surrounding the catcher lately is "garbage."  As for Lee, Stark writes that he is also likely to stay as the Phillies made it clear earlier this year that they have no interest in moving him.
  • Stark asked an AL scout and an NL scout about their thoughts on Dan Haren, who will be a free agent after the Angels buy out his final option year.  Both said that while there are concerns about his velocity and his all-around stuff, he could be an intriguing one-year pickup at the right price. 
  • The scouts were also asked about Jeremy Guthrie and neither scout was terribly high on him.  The NL scout pointed out his high volume of mistakes over the plate but said that he would install him in the back of a rotation on a one-year deal.  The AL scout on the other hand said he would rather take his chances with Daisuke Matsuzaka or Haren.
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