Will Carroll’s Latest: Blake, Mike Gonzalez, Fuentes
Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll checks in with a slew of rumors.
- Carroll believes Orioles relievers Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford would clear waivers. Bradford isn’t striking anyone out, but he does have a 2.45 ERA by virtue of good control and tons of grounders. He has a reasonable $3.5MM commitment for ’09.
- Casey Blake suitors: Mets, Rays, and Twins.
- Carroll wonders if the Rangers could send an outfielder to Atlanta for closer Mike Gonzalez. MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan also linked the Rangers to Gonzalez. Gonzalez is under team control through ’09; I’d be surprised to see him traded.
- The Marlins are "very aggressively" pursuing Rockies closer Brian Fuentes.
Week in Review
Another week in the history books! Here’s a look back from July 13-19:
- The Phillies acquired Joe Blanton from the A’s for a package of three minor leaguers: Adrian Cardenas, Josh Outman, and Matthew Spencer. Cardenas and Outman were the Phils’ #2 and #4 prospects. Personally, that seems like a lot to bring a pitcher who’s already struggling to a much smaller park. Blanton is a much better pitcher than he’s showed this season, however.
- Francisco Rodriguez will test the free-agent market this offseason. I don’t think anyone would be surprised to see K-Rod sign a record-setting contract for a reliever.
- The Yankees signed Richie Sexson.
- Francisco Liriano – or at least his agent – is not pleased that the Twins still have him in AAA. The Twins won’t blame Liriano for the investigation. Upsetting a player who’s that young and that talented seems like a bad idea to me…
- The Padres traded Tony Clark to the Diamondbacks for minor leaguer Evan Scribner. The D’Backs have looked like they can use all the help they can get lately.
- A.J. Burnett likes Toronto and doesn’t want to be traded. My advice: Don’t talk to Chicago reporters anymore, A.J.
- Tim updated the third base and second base markets.
- Erik Bedard’s injury looks like it will keep him in Seattle. And if you don’t believe me yet, here’s another one for you.
- The Twins balked at Seattle’s asking price for Adrian Beltre. And considering they asked for one of Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins, or Kevin Slowey as well as other minor league prospects, can you blame them?
Twins Out Of Running For Beltre
La Velle E. Neal III of Twins Insider is reporting that the Twins are bowing out of the Adrian Beltre sweepstakes. The price for Beltre, rumored to be similar to what the Phillies gave up for Joe Blanton, was just too high. Neal says:
In the Twins’ case, it could mean one of their four young starters plus a couple prospects.
Beltre is scheduled to make $12 million next season and any team that trades for the third baseman would have to pay that.
Just how much is Beltre worth? USS Mariner tackled that question in depth last September. Their findings might surprise you.
Coley Ward writes for Umpbump.com and can be reached here.
Teams Expected To Make A Move
Now that the second half of the season is underway, and less than two weeks before the trade deadline, the acquisitions of CC Sabathia by the Brewers, Rich Harden by the Cubs, and most recently, Joe Blanton by the Phillies (not to mention Tony Clark by the Diamondbacks and Richie Sexson by the Yankees) must have had an impact on the way teams still in the hunt are gauging their chances.
Let’s run down rumors by teams five or less games behind first place and I’ll attempt to sound like a baseball expert and predict the probability of some of those trades happening:
Marlins:
Arguably the team most active in trade rumors of those considered "still in it," the Fish have been mentioned in numerous trade scenarios. Most recently, they inquired on the availability of Ivan Rodriguez, but the Tigers said thanks but no thanks.
The Marlins have also been part of the Brian Fuentes trade speculation express, but they might be better served looking for a bat – thus the interest in Willy Taveras.
Sage prediction: It’s in their blood; the Fish have been active during trade deadline season in the past and now that the Phillies added Blanton (not to mention, hot play by the Mets) they’ll trade for a bat.
Cardinals:
The Birds are in second place behind the Cubs, but with the aforementioned trades by the other two teams out of the top three in the NL Central, it’s looking like a major move is inevitable to keep up with the pace.
In fact, the Cards have been mentioned in some trade speculation but those rumors have consistently been shut down. Barry Bonds to the Cards? Nope. Jason Bay rumors debunked, only to have them flare up again tied to top Cardinals prospect Colby Rasmus…until the press talks to the team chairman and they die back down.
Sage prediction: The Cards have to make a move for a bat and for pitching. There I said it. And I’m not the only one.
Twins:
As a small-market team that always competes with what it’s got, the Twins are again quiet in the trade market. There is, however, continuing speculation that they’re interested in upgrading at 3B, inquiring on the availability of Adrian Beltre. Earlier this week, Charlie Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press put together an interesting money-saving trade scenario involving a slugging third baseman.
Sage prediction: The AL Central is up for grabs, and it sure looks like an upgrade will help the Twins down the stretch to when (not if) the Tigers catch up and if (not when) the White Sox let up.
Mets:
Call it oversight, call it my subtle bias that I think the Mets will win the NL East, but commenter D Wright 5 is dead-on for calling me out on not including the Amazin’s in this list. I like his assessment:
The Mets are obviously looking to get a corner outfielder by way of trade. How come you didn’t add Raul Ibanez as a possible candidate to becoming a Met? Not one word about the rumors swirling around the David DeJesus might also become another possibility for the Mets? Not a word about Brian Fuentes being another option.
Honorable mention:
Dodgers: The problem is money. They have a big payroll and would probably only trade for role players that can help off the bench. Plus, they’re really being carried by the young hitters that ostensibly would be coveted by other teams. But don’t discount the possibility of someone like Raul Ibañez.
Red Sox: In an interesting twist, the Sawks were mentioned in connection to Mark Teixeira… but as a possible free agent signing next year. I’m gonna go out on limb and say they’ll stay pat and wait for the Rays to cool off.
Alejandro A. Leal writes for UmpBump.com. Comments? Rumors? email me: alexo05 [at] umpbump [daught] com.
Twins Won’t Fault Liriano
Here’s a quick update on Liriano-gate.
Phil Miller of the twin cities Pioneer Press reports the Twins won’t hold Francisco Liriano accountable for his agent’s request to investigate the team’s handling of the southpaw. Liriano had expressed frustration over his extended stay in the minors.
Francisco Liriano Frustrated
Ken Rosenthal spoke to Francisco Liriano‘s agent, Greg Genske. The 24 year-old lefty is frustrated that he’s still at Triple A, and Genske has contacted the Players’ Association about filing a grievance. The union will investigate. Liriano is now dominating in the minors.
Rosenthal says Liriano’s arbitration year has already been pushed back by his time in the minors. Twins GM Bill Smith denies any shady money-saving tactics, saying "our starters are all doing the job."
Most likely, the Twins would be an improved team by replacing Livan Hernandez in the rotation with Liriano. But this isn’t the first time the Twins have chosen veteran mediocrity or worse over promising young players.
Walters With A Twins Scenario
Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tosses out a trade scenario:
It will be interesting whether the Twins try to package Michael Cuddyer and Livan Hernandez in a trade for a slugging third baseman before the July 31 deadline, saving $20 million in guaranteed money to Cuddyer and $2.5 million to Hernandez. Denard Span ($390,000) would replace Cuddyer in right field, and Francisco Liriano ($400,000) would replace Hernandez in the starting rotation.
Will Carroll said the Twins are looking at players like Adrian Beltre, Hank Blalock, Garrett Atkins, and Casey Blake. But I can’t see the Mariners, Rangers, Rockies, or Indians biting on a Hernandez/Cuddyer offer.
Carroll’s Latest: Burnett, Twins, Cardinals
Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll has plenty of rumors in his latest post.
- Pat Gillick "doesn’t seem that interested" in going back to work for the Mariners.
- One team asked the Blue Jays to include players to be named later on both sides of an A.J. Burnett deal, to serve as a balance for the pitcher’s uncertain tricky contract. The Jays passed on that idea. By the way, the Toronto Star’s Richard Griffin thinks the Jays will keep Burnett unless offered a player who can improve the ’08 team.
- Carroll wonders whether the Pirates would consider trading Ian Snell. Snell is signed through 2010 with club options for ’11 and ’12.
- Beyond Adrian Beltre, the Twins "have taken a hard look" at Hank Blalock, Garrett Atkins, and Casey Blake.
- The Cards are searching the Triple A ranks for the next Ryan Ludwick. Maybe they were one of the teams inquiring on Nelson Cruz?
Mariners Rumors: Rhodes, Bedard, Washburn
Mariners beat writer Geoff Baker has a new blog post up this morning about the team’s trade candidates. In a well thought-out piece, Baker names Arthur Rhodes, Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, Raul Ibanez, and Adrian Beltre as the most likely to go (in that order). A few highlights from the post:
- Solid lefty relievers are available – mainly Brian Fuentes and Damaso Marte. But the price is reportedly high for both, leaving the 38 year-old Rhodes as a fine alternative. Plus, the ’08 Mariners can live without him.
- Baker indicates that both Bedard and the Mariners favor a trade. However, Baker believes Bedard will have to take the mound at least one more time and maybe twice before the deadline to satisfy a suitor. Bedard is said to be 50/50 to make his July 22nd start.
- Washburn has about $14.4MM left on his contract, which runs through ’09 with limited no-trade protection. The M’s would trade him for salary relief rather than prospects.
- Ibanez and Beltre are down on Baker’s list because he believes the team owes it to the fans not to put a Triple A offense on the field. While neither player has an .800 OPS, trading either without a big league replacement could lead to an even more embarrassing second half. Additionally, the Mariners like Ibanez’s leadership skills. Baker finds the Beltre-to-Twins idea improbable. Interesting note: Beltre is thought to want to return to the L.A. area when his contract ends.
Twins Inquire On Adrian Beltre
The Twins’ interest in Seattle third baseman Adrian Beltre has graduated from internal to external, according to La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Neal is not sure how far the two teams got in their trade discussion.
Beltre, 29, is hitting .259/.330/.440 in 388 plate appearances this year. He’s earning $12MM this year and the same in ’09. His limited no-trade clause allows him to block deals to eight clubs. Complications: he’s playing through a painful wrist injury, but also being called out by anonymous team coaches for not taking extra batting practice.
On the Twins’ side, free agent signee Mike Lamb has proven to be a bust, but call-up Brian Buscher is hitting a surprising .316/.341/.418 in 85 plate appearances. Baseball Prospectus projected him at .245/.309/.358 coming into the season.