Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Johan Santana
Unless Omar Minaya fumbles the most important contract negotiation of his career (we can’t see that happening), the biggest story of the 2007-08 off-season now has an ending and the enduring national nightmare is over. Johan Santana is a Met…now we can get back to talking about more important issues like Kyle Lohse and Livan Hernandez. But before we do let’s take a look at reactions to the Santana trade from the blogosphere.
- Aaron Gleeman is sentimental as his blog has grown up along side Santana’s career. Now he is disappointed in the package the Twins received but hopeful it could still work out in the long run.
- Twinkie Town believes trading Santana is status-quo for the Twins as the franchise seems to be in a perpetual state of rebuilding. This seems like overreaction considering the Twins have been in the playoffs four of the past six years.
- Twins Territory is not disappointed in the trade outcome. They believe Bill Smith had his hands tied and four top prospects is a nice haul.
- Amazin’ Avenue was still smiling hours after the news broke and feels Twins fans must be disappointed in the package they received.
- Metsgeek doesn’t care what the price was for Santana. He is worth it and they are giddy.
- The ‘Ropolitans are begging the Mets to pay Santana whatever it takes to get him signed. We have to agree. The Mets can’t mess this one up.
- Fire Brand of the American League (Red Sox) speculates that the Red Sox may have backed off of Santana when they learned the Yankees were no longer interested.
- My Baseball Bias believes the Yankees won the Santana Sweepstakes by not mortgaging the future for one $150 million player. Normally we would agree, but Santana is not 35 and winning is about pitching and Santana is the best pitcher alive.
- Was Watching shows that the Mets (and the Red Sox) have done a better job of acquiring pitchers than the Yankees, and Santana is the latest example.
Twins Wanted Wang/Kennedy For Santana?
According to Buster Olney in his blog today:
The Twins tried to re-engage the Yankees Monday night, calling and asking, again, for Hughes to be in a package. The Yankees said no, and the Twins then asked, instead, for Chien-Ming Wang and Ian Kennedy, and the Yankees said no.
This differs from Bob Klapisch’s take yesterday. Klapisch said the Twins’ last-ditch proposal to the Yankees was for Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, and a top prospect. Regardless, the Yankees preferred to enter the ’08 season with Wang, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, and Joba Chamberlain in the rotation. Kennedy and Mike Mussina will compete for the fifth spot.
Odds and Ends: Interview, Felix , Fujikawa
Let’s kick things off today with odds and ends.
- Charley Walters says that "it wouldn’t be surprising" if the Twins go after Josh Fogg for some veteran stability. I could see that.
- I did an interview with Baseball Zealot Radio yesterday, which can be found here in mp3 form.
- Bleeding Blue and Teal talks Mariners with KOMO Radio’s Shannon Drayer. One interesting note, she wondered whether the Mariners might start thinking about a long-term deal for Felix Hernandez.
- JapanBall.com says top reliever Kyuji Fujikawa signed with the Hansin Tigers for about $2.64MM. The top-notch closer hoped to be posted, but the Tigers would not honor that request.
- Anyone having problems viewing MLBTradeRumors.com? I few people have emailed me saying it won’t load. Let me know in the comments or at mlbtraderumors@gmail.com (which browser you use would be helpful). I am hearing that FireFox users are having problems but clearing cookies and cache should solve them.
- For those wondering, the times on MLBTR are in the Central Standard Time Zone, because that’s where I am.
Nathan Still Likes Twins
Joe Nathan is not bothered by the Johan Santana trade; he thinks the Twins can still contend. Nathan wants to stay, but he’s a free agent after the ’08 season. And he’s not planning on giving a huge discount again. I’m guessing that could mean $60MM over four years.
Nathan and his agent are waiting for a call from the Twins. GM Bill Smith may soon be free to turn his attention to Nathan and decide whether to try to retain one of the game’s top closers.
Santana Aftermath
Now that the players have been agreed upon for the Johan Santana trade, some depictions of the 11th-hour negotiations have leaked out.
- LEN3 says Santana is expected to get a six-year deal worth around $130MM ($21.66MM annually). He also notes that Santana had given the Twins an end-of-day Tuesday deadline or else he would’ve used his no-trade clause.
- Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record chronicles Bill Smith’s last-ditch attempts to get the Yankees and Red Sox involved. He apparently asked the Yankees for Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, and a top prospect and was denied. The Red Sox wouldn’t part with Jon Lester or Jacoby Ellsbury. To me this makes the Yankees and Red Sox look really fickle. They were willing to offer up these huge packages a few months ago but now both have done a 180? I know the free agent market has shrunk but it’s still crazy that their stances changed so dramatically.
- Newsday says the Mets added Deolis Guerra as the final offer yesterday.
- Joe Posnanski has heard many varying opinions on the deal.
Thoughts On The Johan Santana Trade
Seems that this deal is official enough to evaluate. We know for a fact that the Twins will receive Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Deolis Guerra. The general consensus seems to be that Twins GM Bill Smith passed on other offers that were better than this.
If Smith had taken the Yankees’ best offer, he’d have an MLB-ready pitcher who was very recently regarded as the game’s best pitching prospect (Phil Hughes). He’d also have a solid regular center fielder in Melky Cabrera. And the Twins would’ve gotten a couple of upside players on top of that.
Boston’s top offer was better as well. The Twins could’ve filled center field, shortstop, and closer needs immediately with Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, and Justin Masterson.
But that’s just my take. The best folks to evaluate the Twins’ return will be Baseball America, Keith Law, and Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein. The Twins could very well come out smelling like a rose; they just chose riskier, less proven players. As for the Mets, Omar Minaya deserves all the accolades for acquiring the best pitcher in baseball without surrendering his top prospect or anyone from the big league club.
Johan Santana Traded To Mets
UPDATE, 1-29-08 at 4:22: Ken Rosenthal says the 72-hour window to sign Santana is now open.
UPDATE, 1-29-08 at 3:15pm: Bob Nightengale of USA Today says an agreement to trade Santana to the Mets has been reached. They’ll send Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey to the Twins. The Mets still have to work out a six or seven year extension for Santana, according to Nightengale. If this baby reaches its true conclusion we’ll sit down and analyze.
UPDATE, 1-29-08 at 2:55pm: More from Olney. His sources say the Mets have the best offer, the Red Sox also made offers, and the Yanks are out. Santana apparently asked the Twins to make a decision, wrap this thing up. Wrap it up! Olney is not sure whether F-Mart is part of the Mets’ offer.
UPDATE, 1-29-08 at 2:06pm: SI.com’s Jon Heyman weighs in. He sees the Mets as the frontrunner, the Red Sox on the fringes, and the Yankees as nearly out of the running. The Mets are offering Gomez/Humber/Mulvey/Guerra but not Fernando Martinez. If they get Santana, the Mets will commit to only five years but with a high average annual value of $22-25MM.
UPDATE, 1-29-08 at 1:11pm: WFAN’s Mike Francesa believes the Twins upped their offer to five years, $100MM for Santana, but he rejected it.
UPDATE, 1-29-08 at 9:42am: ESPN’s Buster Olney says the Twins asked for each team’s "last and best offers" on Monday. They could decide Santana’s fate as early as today. Olney adds that the Yankees "appear to be not presently engaged whatsoever in the Santana talks." Olney used to be a Yankees beat writer, so he’s bound to have a good line on this.
As for the Red Sox – Olney is hearing conflicting things about Jon Lester‘s availability. It’s possible that Lester could only be had in a more limited package – he, Coco Crisp, and not much else.
FROM 1-29-08 at 8:02am:
Over at MetsBlog today, Matthew Cerrone does a nice job summing up the Johan Santana situation.
The New York Daily News indicates that the Mets are the one team pushing for Santana, but the Twins might use the Erik Bedard haul as a measuring stick. Joel Sherman sees it as a Mets-Red Sox battle. He notes that Carlos Gomez will skip the Caribbean Series not because of an impending trade but just to limit his games.
We could finally get some kind of resolution with Santana this week. Just to keep things interesting, check out Mark Healey’s note about the Dodgers "creeping into the picture."
Johan Santana Rumors
UPDATE, 1-28-08 at 9:42am: LEN3 jumps on his blog to give a few more tidbits. He doesn’t see the Twins adding a player or any kind of three-team scenario unfolding, based on talks with Twins officials.
FROM 1-28-08 at 9:09am:
I imagine there will be a daily thread for Johan Santana rumors. Here’s the latest from LEN3.
- The Twins "may soon tell teams…to step up with their best offers." The Yankees, Red Sox, and Mets are all still in the mix.
- The officials Neal spoke to disputed Buster Olney’s suggestion that Jon Lester was off the table.
- The Twins still want a big ol’ package from the Mets that includes both Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez.
- Meanwhile, Sid Hartman at the same newspaper quotes the Twins’ assistant GM as saying their four-year, $80MM offer remains on the table. Santana doesn’t seem likely to relent that far, and a trade may be a phone call away.
Nathan Waits For Santana Resolution
The AP has some quotes today from Joe Nathan and his agent.
- Whether he re-signs with the Twins or hits the free agent market after the ’08 season, Nathan isn’t playing for a discount again. He said: I think we definitely gave them a really good deal this last time around. I felt I left quite a bit of money on the table, to be honest. This time around, we expect it to be different.
- Nathan’s agent expects the Twins to resolve the Johan Santana situation first. They reached out to the Twins and had some conversations, but it didn’t go beyond that. Now the ball is in the Twins’ court to come to Nathan and his agent. Or, Nathan could be traded anytime between now and July 31st.
- Nathan would like to pitch for seven or eight years. As for his next deal, what do you think? Four years, $60MM?
Johan Santana Rumors
UPDATE, 1-25-08 at 9:46pm: According to LEN3: I was told today that next week is a big week in terms of determining if and where Santana will be dealt. The end is in sight, then?
FROM 1-25-08 at 9:30am:
Time for your daily Johan Santana rumors post.
- LEN3 talked to a Twins official who said there had been no recent extension talks between Santana and the Twins. Meanwhile Sid Hartman at the same paper says the Mets and Yankees won’t go seven years, and he think the Twins’ 4/80 offer is fair.
- Neal says that while Santana won’t necessarily veto any trade reached after Spring Training starts, it’s in everyone’s best interest to avoid dragging it that far.
- The Mets are still reluctant to part with Fernando Martinez, seemingly the dealbreaker right now. Aaron Heilman could enter the mix though.
- Neal believes the Yankee/Red Sox offers from December are still on the table. This has been my hunch as well. Which is why I think Boston can still pull this off.
- If no deal can be reached soon the Twins might have to sign a stopgap CF like Corey Patterson or Kenny Lofton.
- Buster Olney on Johan’s warning signs: I talked with evaluators and scouts with three other teams since then, and they all saw the exact same thing in Santana: diminishment in velocity, relatively few sliders thrown, subpar (for Santana) performances. But two of the three believe the regression could be attributed to the Twins not being in the race, Minnesota not playing in a high-adrenalin situation, and Santana coping with a cracked nail. The third evaluator wonders, too, if Santana is OK. "If a deal is made, you could see there would be a complete physical, given the money involved," said the evaluator.